MLBTR is launching a new summer series entitled ’Taking Inventory,’ in which we’ll preview the potential trade chips that could become available on a number of likely and borderline selling clubs throughout the league.
Entering the season, the Phillies would’ve been on the short list of clubs that were near universally expected to be deadline sellers in 2017. Philadelphia’s rebuilding efforts have been well documented, and while there was plenty of promise thanks to young pieces such as Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Aaron Nola, Vince Velasquez, Jerad Eickhoff and Zach Eflin, that rebuilding effort was all but certain to continue.
Fast forward two months, and things in Philadelphia are more dire than nearly anyone could have predicted. At 21-37, Philadelphia has baseball’s worst record. They went 6-22 in the month of May. Their collective ERA is an MLB-worst 5.02, and they rank 26th in both runs scored and OBP. Suffice it to say, the 2017 season isn’t going well, and for a rebuilding team, that can only mean more trades to stockpile young talent. With that in mind, here’s a look at what the Phillies have to offer other clubs…
Rentals
Pat Neshek, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $6.5MM
Acquired in what amounted to a salary dump this offseason, Neshek has been the Phillies’ best reliever in 2017. Through 22 innings, he’s pitched to a pristine 0.82 ERA with 8.6 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and a 35.8 percent ground-ball rate. He’s always been a buzzsaw against right-handed opponents, but lefties have posted a woeful .143/.194/.176 batting line against the 36-year-old Neshek in 37 plate appearances this season. That’s obviously a small sample, but Neshek’s control against both lefties and righties has been markedly better in 2017 than in previous seasons, so some of the improvements against lefties could be legitimate.
Joaquin Benoit, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $7.5MM
Another bullpen stopgap, Benoit has pitched reasonably well when healthy enough to toe the rubber. He’s been on the disabled list since June 1 due to a knee sprain, but there’s no indication that the injury is serious in nature. Assuming he returns and demonstrates his health, Benoit should draw some interest for teams in need of middle relief and/or setup help. The 39-year-old veteran has totaled 22 innings of 3.68 ERA ball, averaging 7.8 K/9 against 4.9 BB/9 with a 30.9 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers, of course, aren’t exactly outstanding, but virtually all of the damage against Benoit has been confined to two outings in 2017. He served up five runs in an epic meltdown on May 10 and another three on April 16. Benoit had tossed eight scoreless innings prior to his injury.
Jeanmar Gomez, RHP (reliever) | Salary: $4.2MM
The Phillies couldn’t drum up much interest in Gomez at last year’s trade deadline despite the fact that he was sporting a 2.77 ERA and 27 saves at the time of the trade deadline. Given his dismal 7.13 ERA and the loss of nearly one full mile per hour off his fastball through his first 17 2/3 innings this year, it’s not likely that Gomez will generate much intrigue. He’s posted a more encouraging 17-to-6 K/BB ratio (two of the walks being intentional) and a solid 52.8 percent ground-ball rate, though, so there’s at least some hope of a turnaround.
Jeremy Hellickson, RHP (starter) | Salary: $17.2MM
Like Neshek, Hellickson was acquired more or less as a salary dump — just one offseason prior. The former Rays top prospect had a rebound campaign with Philadelphia last year, tossing 189 innings with a 3.71 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 40.7 percent ground-ball rate. However, Hellickson was somewhat surprisingly not traded at last year’s deadline and, in another surprise, accepted a $17.2MM qualifying offer rather than seeking a larger guarantee on a multi-year deal in a weak market for starters. His strikeout rate has absolutely plummeted, as he’s punched out just 28 hitters in 66 innings (3.8 K/9). Hellickson is still showing good control, and his 4.50 ERA is at least respectable, but metrics like FIP (5.82), xFIP (5.88) and SIERA (5.77) all scream regression.
Howie Kendrick, LF/RF/2B/1B | Salary: $10MM
Yet another low-cost pickup for GM Matt Klentak, Kendrick has been on an all-out tear since returning from a DL stint for an abdominal strain. The versatile 33-year-old (34 next month) is hitting .333/.378/.522 on the season. That production comes with a ridiculous and unsustainable .422 average on balls in play, but Kendrick has a pair of homers, five doubles and a triple on the season thus far to go along with three steals. With his versatility and experience, he could appeal to a vast number of contenders if he can sustain some of this production.
Michael Saunders, RF/LF | Salary: $9MM
With a .213/.262/.377 batting line through his first 195 plate appearances on the season, Saunders looks more like a release candidate than a trade candidate. But he’s not far removed from an outrageously good first half in 2016, and if he can rebound at the plate, the Phils could find a taker to absorb a bit of his salary. There’s an $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout attached to Saunders’ deal, but it’d take a remarkable turnaround for the Phillies or any other team to consider exercising it.
Daniel Nava, RF/LF/1B | Salary: $1.35MM
A minor league signee that has paid dividends thus far, Nava is sporting a high-quality .306/.429/.452 triple slash through a modest sample of 77 plate appearances. Nava’s not going to command much of a return even if he continues to hit well, but the veteran switch-hitter could be a nice bench piece for a contending club.
Andres Blanco, SS/2B/3B/1B | Salary: $3MM
Blanco was a quietly productive bench piece for the Phils from 2015-16, but he’s not going to draw much interest with a .180/.268/.260 line. He’s tallied just 56 plate appearances this year, so he can turn things around in a hurry. The switch-hitter crushed lefties in 2015 and hit righties well in 2016. If he turns it on before July 31, he, like Nava, could be a bench piece elsewhere.
Controlled Through 2018
Freddy Galvis, SS | Salary: $4.4MM
Galvis posted the worst OBP in baseball in 2016 (.274) and was still worth better than two wins above replacement due to sensational defense at shortstop and a surprise 20-homer season. The 27-year-old switch-hitter is showing some power once again and playing good defense as well. With a .245/.297/.420 batting line, he’s not an elite shortstop, but that triple slash paired with his glove and baserunning could help a club both this year and next. Unfortunately for the Phillies, there aren’t many contenders in need of a starting shortstop. However, injuries can change the marketplace in a hurry, and some clubs may like the idea of Galvis as a defensive-minded bench piece with some pop.
Longer-Term Assets
Cameron Rupp, C; Tommy Joseph, 1B ; Cesar Hernandez, 2B ; Hector Neris, RHP (reliever) | All pre-arbitration
None of this bunch stands out as especially likely to be moved, but the Phillies do have promising alternatives in the minors that could take their place if a rival club makes an enticing offer. Andrew Knapp and Jorge Alfaro both represent potential long-term options at catcher. Rhys Hoskins has 52 minor league homers dating back to Opening Day 2016 and could step in for Joseph at first base. Second base prospect Scott Kingery is having a monster season in Double-A. The Phils have a number of enticing young arms that could slot into the ninth inning, with Edubray Ramos already in the Majors and several promising arms in the upper minors.
Rupp and Hernandez are controlled through the 2020 season, while Neris is controlled through 2021 and Joseph all the way through 2022.
Tommy Joseph…
The one that got fooled by Hick’s “deceptive” slide, right?
Non tender Hellickson.
You can’t non tender someone thats eligible for free agency
The fact that it was surprising that hellickson tool the QO just shows why it needed to go away
Yeah, that’s pretty spot on. The fact the Phillies would even have to pay Hellickson a QO with a $17.2m price tag attached, to begin with, was just flat out absurd and quite ridiculous…
How anyone could not see, nor have predicted, an outcome like Hellickson’s example just blows my mind. I mean yeah, they could have just A.) let him go, or B.) signed him to a long-term deal.
A.) Then they would not receive any type of compensation and they would obviously also lose a decent starter..That’s an easy NO..
B.) A long-term deal at a fairly high market rate, just doesn’t make sense for a rebuilding team like the Phillies whatsoever…Another easy heck NO
So, more or less, the Phillies were basically screwed into offering that $17.2m QO, the moment they decided not to trade Hellickson at the deadline…
How is “A” an easy no? Teams lose decent players for no compensation all the time. Two of the players mentioned in this piece, Kendrick and Neshak, are decent players who their (contending!) teams gave away for little or no compensation.
Hellickson is a Dillon Gee/Jon Niese level pitcher, a borderline major league starter. The Phillies are a big payroll club that had a very low payroll this year, i.e. the only type of club that could have done this. Not a big deal either way.
You do realize WHY the Phillies made Hellickson a QO, right? He pitched decently for them last year, and because they didn’t receive a offer of value at the deadline they kept him…either for a member of their ’17 rotation or to get draft compensation. They could not care less about the $17.2M…The money is/was burning a hole in their pocket, and they’d rather spend $17.2—or probably even $25M—for Hellickson to pitch barely above replacement level 30 times in 2017 than overworking a young pitcher.
Signing a player like Hellickson cause $ is burning a hole makes him untradeable and, after a while, makes one an ex-GM.
unless you eat the salart when you trade him, which phillies can
Please, the Phillies made the mistakes
The QO system took all the worst aspects of the old Comp system and exaggerated them, and took all the beneficial aspects and destroyed them.
Of course, anybody in Hellickson’s shoes would take the 17.2 Million dollar/one year contract of the qualifying offer. It would be crazy to turn down the “Payday Of a Lifetime” even if it meant staying for another year with the under.500 Phillies. (Even though neither Hellickson nor anyone else would have anticipated that the 2017 Phillies would be this bad.)
Iowa boys like Hellickson may be “Country”, but they ain’t no fools.
Did you happen to notice what mediocre pitchers get in long term deals lately?
You left out additional chips such as Odouble and Franco. No one should be untouchable at this point since none look like must haves on a championship team.
Herrera and Franco are not deadline deal candidates. Franco is having an awful season—following an awful season; maybe he’s just not that good, or maybe he’ll turn it on eventually. But his value is down, and they likely won’t get back what a lot of fans expect. As for Herrera, I fully believe he’ll be traded, probably in the offseason. Two things lead me to that…his contract extension, and the Adam Eaton trade. The Phillies will look (or should look) to leverage that control into a strong return…probably not what Chicago got, but a decent return nonetheless. And I think outfielders are the least concern for the Phillies, as they are pretty deep there. They have Altherr who looks like a long-term piece, Williams in AAA, and then the younger Moniak behind him. I also really believe that Harper ends up in Philly, even if they have to overpay. Washington can’t match the Phillies financially, the Cubs (as mentioned in a rumor) likely won’t have the cash with all the players they’ll have to pay, and the Yankees I doubt are that interested in committing that much money to a player they don’t really need. The Phillies NEED Harper more than any other big-market team, perhaps this side of the Giants. And they have a lot more financial freedom to work with than SF.
Don’t forget about machado, too.
Man, I wish there was some way to pry trout away though. He really seems to love playing in his home town philly, and we’d have the money to sign him.
And don’t worry about the financial side at this point. Controlling Ownership has changed in the last decade and the Phillies signed a huge tv contract and they have no long term contracts. Money is not the issue it will be about making good baseball decisions.