Taking Inventory 2017

Taking Inventory: Pittsburgh Pirates

By Connor Byrne | January 7, 2018 at 10:09pm CDT

The 2017 season was the second straight sub-.500 showing by the Pirates, who finished 75-87 and continued to distance themselves from a 2013-15 stretch in which they made the playoffs three straight times. It has now been three-plus months since the Pirates last took the field, though it’s not yet clear which direction they’ll take heading into 2018. While owner Bob Nutting would like to both buy and sell this winter, the Pirates have neither acquired any established major leaguers nor traded any away during what has been a plodding offseason across the majors. With spring training set to commence next month, action figures to pick up soon in Pittsburgh and other big league cities. If the Pirates do indeed sell players in the coming weeks, they have at least a few who would garner respectable returns, as evidenced below…

One-Year Rentals

Andrew McCutchen, OF ($14.5MM): Getting rid of McCutchen would be agonizing for the Pirates, who have seen the center fielder develop into a star and a beloved figure in their city since drafting him in 2005. Nevertheless, considering the Pirates have taken inquiries for him this winter a year after nearly trading him, it’s quite possible he has played his last game with the club. Given that he’s entering his last year of team control, McCutchen’s value now is likely higher than it’s going to be during the season. And the 31-year-old helped his stock in 2017 by hitting .279/.363/.486 with 28 home runs in 650 plate appearances, thus rebounding from a mediocre 2016 at the plate.

While McCutchen isn’t any kind of a defensive asset at this point, his bat still carries plenty of value, which has led to interest from the Mets and Giants. Getting McCutchen’s money off the books would appeal to the low-payroll Pirates, but that alone wouldn’t suffice – unsurprisingly, they also want a legitimate return for their longtime franchise face.

Jordy Mercer, SS ($6.5MM projected arbitration salary): The Pirates are reportedly content to keep the 31-year-old Mercer, who likely wouldn’t bring back much in a trade anyway. Mercer’s a lifetime .256/.316/.383 hitter who has only drawn up-and-down reviews from advanced defensive metrics since he became a regular in 2013.

Sean Rodriguez, UTIL ($5.75MM): Rodriguez was part of an August 2017 trade with the Braves in which he returned to the Pirates for struggling first base/outfield prospect Connor Joe. If Rodriguez’s value was low then, it’s in an even worse state now, given that he closed the season by hitting .168/.255/.274 in 106 PAs in Pittsburgh. Between the Braves and Pirates, Rodriguez batted an ugly .167/.276/.295 and struck out in 37.3 percent of PAs. In fairness to Rodriguez, it’s worth noting that an offseason car crash and the shoulder surgery he underwent thereafter likely played a part in his forgettable year.

Daniel Hudson, RHRP ($5.5MM): The hard-throwing Hudson didn’t produce to the level the Pirates hoped when they signed him as a free agent last winter, as he logged a 4.38 ERA with 9.63 K/9 and 4.82 BB/9 across 61 2/3 innings. More than half the league showed interest in Hudson in the weeks before he joined the Pirates, though, and that was off a season in Arizona that came with some rough patches. So, perhaps Hudson would be able to bring back something of a worth in a trade in the wake of last year’s unspectacular output.

Two Years Of Control

Francisco Cervelli, C ($22MM through 2019): Cervelli was a revelation for the Pirates in 2015, leading them to extend him the next year, but he hasn’t been nearly as effective recently. Injuries helped limit Cervelli to 182 games during the previous two seasons, including 81 in 2017. While Cervelli, 31, slashed a respectable .249/.342/.370 in 304 trips to the plate to continue a solid offensive career as a Buc, the excellent pitch framing he showed off in prior years was not on display. Now, considering Cervelli’s price tag, injury issues, 2017 defensive drop-off and the lack of contenders looking for a starting catcher, this doesn’t seem like the ideal time to move him. Interestingly, though, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review suggested that there were some trade rumors about Cervelli during the Winter Meetings last month.

Ivan Nova, RHP ($17MM through 2019): The unexpected success Nova experienced as a Pirate in late 2016 after coming over in a trade with the Yankees didn’t quite transfer last year. Still, in the first season of a three-year, $26MM deal, Nova ate innings (187) and posted a playable 4.14 ERA with 6.3 K/9, 1.73 BB/9 and a 45.7 percent groundball rate. On one hand, you’d expect plenty of teams in need of a capable back-end starter to have interest in the reasonably priced 30-year-old if the Pirates shop him. On the other, we were among many around the game to overestimate his market when he was a free agent in a weak class of starters a winter ago.

Gerrit Cole, RHP ($7.5MM projected salary): As a Scott Boras client whose team control is running out, it seems to be a matter of when – not if – the Pirates trade Cole. The 27-year-old fireballer has drawn widespread interest this offseason from teams seeking a mid-/front-of-the-rotation starter. The Yankees, Cubs and Twins are among many clubs that have inquired about Cole, who’d very likely bring back an impressive haul in a deal.

David Freese, 3B/1B ($4.25MM in 2018 and either a $6MM club option or a $500K buyout in 2019): There hasn’t been much trade buzz this offseason regarding Freese, who may lose playing time in Pittsburgh in 2018. The soon-to-be 35-year-old offered unexciting production for the fifth straight year in 2017, when he hit .263/.368/.371 in 503 PAs, though a roughly average player on an affordable salary shouldn’t be seen as valueless.

George Kontos, RHRP ($2.7MM projected salary): There doesn’t seem to be much value here – the Giants gave Kontos to the Pirates for nothing last August, after all – yet the 32-year-old has held his own in the majors. Kontos’ ERA ranged from 2.33 to 3.39 from 2014-17, and he has typically limited free passes in his career (2.62 BB/9). Further, while Kontos was a below-average strikeout pitcher in past seasons, he did register a career-high 9.5 K/9 and a personal-best 16.4 percent swinging-strike rate in 2017. He also recorded a .269 xwOBA against, beating out newly minted $52MM man Wade Davis (.289), among others.

Longer-Term Assets

Gregory Polanco, OF (controllable through 2023 for $54MM): Hamstring injuries helped limit Polanco to 108 games and just 0.5 fWAR in 411 PAs last season, when he batted a meager .251/.305/.391. While the 26-year-old has never been an offensive dynamo, his baserunning, defense and contract have combined to make him a valuable player. Barring a shocking trade, he’ll attempt to bounce back in Pittsburgh next season.

Starling Marte, OF (controllable through 2021 for $41.5MM): Marte was among the most valuable assets in the sport from 2013-16, when he hit, ran and defended his way to 16.4 fWAR, but the shine came off to a degree last season. Not only did Marte sit 80 games on account of a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, but he wasn’t any kind of force during the 77 contests in which he did appear. The 29-year-old hit a career-low .275/.333/.379 and experienced a dramatic decline in the power department, which has never been a major strength for him anyway. Like Polanco, though, there’s nothing to suggest the Pirates are interested in moving Marte or his still-appealing contract.

Josh Harrison, UTIL ($10MM salary in 2018 and club options totaling $22MM from 2019-20): As with McCutchen and Cole, Harrison has been a popular name in rumors this winter. Perhaps the Pirates should part with the 30-year-old Harrison now, given his recent inconsistency. Harrison broke out in 2014, but he followed that up with subpar showings from 2015-16 before rebounding to enjoy a quality season last year. The Yankees, Mets and Blue Jays are a few clubs that have pursued the infielder/outfielder this winter.

Felipe Rivero ($3.1MM projected salary; controllable through 2021): As an elite, flamethrowing reliever who’s under wraps for the foreseeable future, the left-handed Rivero is clearly one of the most valuable players in the Pittsburgh organization. The 26-year-old is now coming off the best full season of his career, during which he tossed 75 1/3 innings of 1.67 ERA ball and notched 10.51 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and a 52.9 percent grounder rate. Rivero also converted 21 of 23 save chances, and if he remains in the ninth inning for the Pirates, it’s only going to drive up his price in arbitration. There is a case to be made that the Pirates should shop Rivero now when his value’s at its zenith, especially if they don’t expect to compete in 2018, though it seems highly unlikely to happen.

While Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, Adam Frazier, Chad Kuhl, Trevor Williams and Tyler Glasnow are among other Pirates with trade value, there’s no reason to expect the team to market any of those pre-arb players.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Images.

Taking Inventory: San Diego Padres

By Jeff Todd | January 2, 2018 at 12:26pm CDT

The Padres are in a fairly flexible spot this offseason, as the team entered the winter with fairly low payroll obligations for the 2018 season and a long-term balance sheet that features just one notable commitment. While nobody really expects the team to contend in the coming season, its pursuit of Eric Hosmer shows that the organization would like to begin building toward MLB competitiveness.

On the whole, there’s no real reason to think the Padres need to trade any particular player. But the organization has one fairly obvious, high-end trade candidate and it also seems reasonaby likely that at least one veteran infielder will end up hitting the road.

Click here to view the previous entries in this series.

One-Year Rental

Chase Headley, 3B ($13MM in 2018): The Friars brought back their former star in a deal that was designed mostly to acquire righty Bryan Mitchell, who’ll compete for a rotation spot. Now, it seems likely that Headley will be dangled as a means of trimming some salary. Entering his age-34 season, Headley profiles as a solid average player who could hold down the fort for a year in the right circumstances. But his overall output with the bat has been average or worse over the past four seasons, so despite the limited contractual commitment, it seems likely the Padres will have to keep some of the salary if he ends up on the move.

Two Years of Control

Brad Hand, RP (projected $3.8MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2019): This is the one player who stands out as a premium veteran trade asset. With Orioles lefty Zach Britton suffering an offseason injury, and a busy market for free agent relievers, Hand stands out as a highly valuable asset. He has retired more than 11 batters per nine via strikeout in each of the past two seasons and upped his output in 2017, when he ran a 2.16 ERA over 79 1/3 innings and stepped seamlessly into the closer’s role. It’s arguable the Pads ought to cash in on Hand in the near term, rather than risking any injury or performance decline, though we haven’t heard much chatter surrounding him so far this winter.

Carter Capps, RP (projected $1.3MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2019): It was an open question whether the Padres would tender Capps a contract at all following his tepid return from Tommy John surgery. The 27-year-old managed just seven strikeouts and allowed nine earned runs in his 12 1/3 innings in 2017, while showing a whopping 5+ mph drop in his average fastball velocity and carrying only a 7.8% whiff rate. But the Padres evidently feel that Capps can still build himself back into being a quality reliever, and it’s certainly worth bearing in mind just how dominant he had become before the elbow injury. It seems unlikely he’ll be moved, but it’s certainly possible a roster need could push him out or that another organization may put a slightly higher value on his upside.

Clayton Richard, SP/RP ($6MM through 2019): The southpaw just inked an extension at the tail end of the 2017 campaign, so it’s quite unlikely the Pads would turn around and deal him before the start of the coming season. Instead, the 34-year-old is likely to hold down a rotation spot and perhaps eventually slide into a swingman role as situations dictate.

Longer-Term Assets

Yangervis Solarte, INF ($5.5MM through 2018, including buyout of 2019-20 club options): If the Friars don’t trade Headley, it may be because they find a better deal that involves Solarte. A solid switch-hitting option who can handle third base, second base, and even a bit of time at short, Solarte would fit on a lot of rosters around the game. The flexibility in his contract boosts his value, though surely other organizations won’t be offering up top talent for a player who is coming off of a personal-worst .255/.314/.416 season at the plate.

Wil Myers, 1B ($78.5MM through 2022, including buyout of club option for 2023): There’s no indication that the Padres have interest in shopping Myers, who had a less-than-inspiring first season under his new contract. Rather, it seems the club is weighing a move for free agent Eric Hosmer, which would bump Myers into a corner outfield spot. But Myers does carry the team’s only large, long-term contract, so he certainly merits mention.

Cory Spangenberg, UTIL (projected $2.0MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2020): In his most extensive MLB action, a 486 plate appearance run in 2017, Spangenberg turned in a .264/.322/.401 batting line with 13 home runs and 11 steals. That’s a handy batting line for a player who rated as an outstanding overall baserunner and can play just about anywhere on the field. Then again, the output was still below the league average and there are limits to Spangenberg’s defensive function; he graded poorly at third last year and isn’t really an option at short or in center. All told, though, he’s a useful asset who’d draw interest if dangled.

Kirby Yates, RP (projected $1.1MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2020): Though he’ll turn 31 before the start of the 2018 season and has not really thrived in prior attempts at the majors, Yates is an interesting player after a strong 2017 season. Home runs marred his balance sheet in the end, but it’s hard to ignore his 14.0 K/9 strikeout rate and robust 17.3% swinging-strike rate. Odds are the Padres will keep Yates and hope he can produce the results to match those promising peripherals, but his name could also come up in trade talks.

Matt Szczur, OF (projected $800K arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2021): It’s hard to imagine teams lining up for a player who seemingly profiles at best as a solid, right-handed-hitting fourth outfielder. But Szczur did produce at a roughly league-average rate over 237 plate appearances in 2017, most of which came after he moved to the Friars from the Cubs in the middle of the season. Most impressively, Szczur maintained a 14.3% walk rate over the season. He’s also still affordable as a Super Two.

Austin Hedges, C (pre-arb): In all likelihood, the 25-year-old Hedges is going to continue to take the bulk of the time behind the dish for the Padres in 2018 and beyond. But there’s some uncertainty in his outlook after a marginal .214/.262/.398 output with the bat in 2017, even if he did swat 18 long balls. It’s important to bear in mind that Hedges is considered a high-quality defender; indeed, he was one of the game’s highest-rated pitch framers in his first full season as a big leaguer. There may not be a ton of offensive upside, but the Padres have good reason to continue to allow Hedges to develop as a hitter while he gives a boost to the organization’s pitching staff.

Of course, the Padres have a variety of other younger players around who could conceivably also be traded. To take a few examples, it isn’t impossible to imagine deals involving outfielder Hunter Renfroe, starter Luis Perdomo, or reliever Phil Maton. But those and others don’t seem particularly likely to be targeted by contending organizations weighing win-now moves, so we needn’t consider them in detail. We’re also going to go ahead and assume that the team intends to utilize the just-acquired Freddy Galvis at shortstop, so there’s no real cause to weigh his trade candidacy.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Taking Inventory: Cincinnati Reds

By Jeff Todd | January 1, 2018 at 6:26pm CDT

The Reds have already parted out most of the components of their most recently competitive roster. It seems the inclination now is to begin climbing the hill rather than continue to strip away veterans. That being said, this is a club that won just 68 games in 2017 and has shown no real indication of ramping up spending.

In short, the Reds are in no position to decline to consider trades involving shorter-term veteran assets. At the same time, indications are that they have fairly hefty asking prices affixed to some of their most notable trade pieces.

Two Years of Control

Billy Hamilton, CF (projected $5.0MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2019): The game’s preeminent burner, Hamilton has drawn a steady drumbeat of trade chatter all winter. Thus far, nothing has come together, but it still feels reasonably likely that another organization will make a significant enough offer to tempt the Reds. After all, though Hamilton has yet to show he can consistently reach base, his lofty baserunning and defensive value make him a highly useful player even if his career ceiling with the bat is still about twenty percent below league average. Dealing Hamilton would clear room in the outfield rotation for youngster Jesse Winker, who showed well in his 2017 debut.

Scooter Gennett, 2B (projected $6.1MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2019): The Cinci front office made good on its surprising claim of Gennett before the 2017 campaign. He rewarded the faith with 497 plate appearances of .295/.342/.531 hitting and 27 home runs — far and away his best full-season output. That said, Gennett has never hit lefties much and is generally graded as a below-average defender at second, limiting his value. There has been little reported interest to this point, though perhaps it still wouldn’t surprise if he ends up on the move.

Longer-Term Assets

Joey Votto, 1B ($157MM thru 2023; includes buyout on 2024 club option): Sure, he’s 34 years of age, but Votto has been the second-best hitter in baseball over the past three years. That makes the remainder of his massive extension seem quite a bit less onerous than might have been feared. Odds are, though, we won’t get a chance to see how the rest of the league values Votto. All indications are that Votto is not interested in waiving his full no-trade protection and the Reds seem happy to keep him around.

Raisel Iglesias, RP ($13.5MM thru 2020; may opt into arbitration; arb-eligible thru 2021); The Reds’ most obviously marketable player, Iglesias has blossomed into one of the game’s better young late-inning relievers. He’s capable of functioning as a traditional closer or multi-inning stopper. Though he’ll ultimately have a chance to boost his earnings by opting into arbitration, Iglesias remains a controllable bargain. While we analyzed his possible market earlier in the offseason, indications are that the Reds have advertised such a high and firm asking price that interested parties aren’t even coming onto the lot to kick the tires.

Eugenio Suarez, INF (projected $4.4MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2020): With three years of control remaining, the Reds don’t need to deal Suarez. But they could conceivably find it an opportune time to move the 26-year-old, who is fresh off of an excellent .260/.367/.461 campaign, with top prospect Nick Senzel nearing MLB readiness. That said, Suarez is capable of playing elsewhere in the infield, and it seems likelier that the Reds will explore a long-term contract than try to work out a deal for a player who could well be a key part of the organization’s next contender.

Tucker Barnhart, C ($16MM through 2021; includes buyout on 2022 club option): A quality defender who has increasingly shown he can hit at a useful rate, Barnhart only signed his contract in September. It’d rank as quite a surprise were he to be moved at this point.

Adam Duvall, OF (pre-arb eligible): Though he has swatted over thirty home runs in each of the past two seasons, Duvall has been a roughly league-average hitter due to his inability to get on base (career .296 OBP). That said, highly-rated glovework in the gives Duvall the profile of a solid average regular in the corner. There’d be interest if the Reds make him available, but it still seems likely he’ll be kept in the fold.

Scott Schebler, OF (pre-arb eligible): You can basically take exactly what was written about Duvall and apply it to Schebler. While the latter did not grade as a top-end right fielder in 2017, he did show he can palatably patrol center. With just 1.132 years of service to this point, though, Schebler is likely to remain in Cincinnati for the time being.

Anthony DeSclafani, SP (projected $1.1MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2020): Elbow troubles robbed all of 2017 from DeSclafani. He remains an exciting pitcher when healthy, and the Reds are all but certain to hold onto his upside this winter.

Brandon Finnegan, SP (pre-arb eligible): Similarly, Finnegan is coming off of a season in which entered with big expectations but managed only four outings. Cinci has little choice but to hope for better health. It’s worth noting, too, that other controllable starters — most notably, eye-opening 2017 debutante Luis Castillo — are likely to be kept in the stable.

Michael Lorenzen, RP (projected $1.4MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2021): Perhaps the Reds would at least listen to offers on Lorenzen, who did not produce results to match his big-time stuff in 2017. He’d surely draw interest after showing a personal-high 10.4% swinging-strike rate and strong 54.6% groundball rate in heavy usage (83 innings over seventy appearances). But for the Reds, the hope remains that he’ll join Iglesias to form a dominant late-inning duo. It’s even less likely that the club will end up dealing other relief assets, though perhaps there could be some interest in Wandy Peralta, who turned in a solid (if hardly dominant) rookie season.

Jose Peraza, INF (pre-arb eligible): Unless the Reds decide to give up on Peraza, he’ll remain on hand to fill out the infield. But the team is no doubt concerned with what it saw over his 518 plate appearances in 2017, as Peraza managed 23 stolen bases but otherwise produced a marginal .259/.297/.324 batting line.

Salary Dump Candidates

Homer Bailey, SP ($49MM through 2019; includes buyout of 2020 mutual option): If you’re looking for positives, you’d note that Bailey showed velocity in the range of his career peak (94 mph or so) over 91 frames in 2017 — his most extensive action since 2014. But he managed only a 6.43 ERA in that span, with just 6.6 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9. Given that the Reds have a need for innings, and no doubt still have some hope that Bailey will find his way, it seems likeliest this contract will remain on the books for the time being.

Devin Mesoraco, C ($13.125MM in 2018): Just as he was finally showing some signs of health and productivity with a .260/.345/.600 output last June, Mesoraco hit the DL with a shoulder strain. He scarcely hit at all upon returning and ended up suffering a season-ending foot fracture in mid-August. In the aggregate, the Reds have received virtually nothing for the $28MM they committed to Mesoraco via extension: he has provided just 271 plate appearances of 61 OPS+ hitting over the past three seasons. With nearly half of that outlay still left to be paid in the final year of the deal, it’s hard to see Mesoraco as anything but a potential salary dump candidate at this stage. In all likelihood, the Reds will carry him into the season and see what they can get — with the idea of a mid-season trade still carrying at least some potential for saving a bit of cash.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Taking Inventory: Kansas City Royals

By Steve Adams | January 1, 2018 at 12:21pm CDT

After an extended run at or near the top of the American League Central, the Royals have watched much of their vaunted core hit the open market. What remains in Kansas City, beyond the everlasting title of 2015 World Series champions, is a collection of fairly expensive veterans and a larger group of unproven young assets. The Royals appear destined for a rebuild, joining their AL Central brethren in Detroit and on the south side of Chicago in that regard.

While there aren’t all that many top-shelf trade chips, GM Dayton Moore and his staff do have some commodities that they can market to other clubs as an alternative to the stagnant free-agent market.

One-Year Rentals

Kelvin Herrera, RHRP (projected arbitration salary of $8.3MM): Herrera is coming off the worst season of his career, having struggled to a 4.25 ERA as he watched his K/9 (8.5), BB/9 (3.0) and HR/9 (1.37) all trend in the wrong direction. That said, Herrera’s average fastball checked in at 97.5 mph, tying him for 10th among all qualified relievers in the game. His 11.5 percent swinging-strike rate and 34 percent chase rate on pitches out of the zone were both down from recent seasons but comfortably above the league average. He’s still just 28 years old, as well.

Joakim Soria, RHRP ($10MM through 2018, including buyout of a 2019 mutual option): Unlike Herrera, Soria saw virtually all of his rate stats improve in 2017. While his 3.70 ERA looks fairly pedestrian, his 2.23 FIP and 3.16 SIERA are more indicative of the success he enjoyed as his K/9 (10.3), BB/9 (3.2), HR/9 (0.16), ground-ball rate (54.8 percent) and swinging-strike rate (13.2 percent) all looked better than they did in a lackluster 2016 season. Soria will turn 34 in May, and he’s not cheap at $10MM, but he can help the back of a contender’s bullpen.

Jason Hammel, SP ($11MM through 2018, including buyout of a 2019 mutual option): Hammel is 35 years old and registered an ERA north of 5.00 last year, but his 4.37 FIP, 7.2 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 are all at least somewhat encouraging. He’s made at least 29 starts in each of the past four seasons, so a team looking for durable innings in the fifth slot of its rotation could do worse than lining up a deal for Hammel. It shouldn’t require much more than simply picking up the tab on his $11MM remaining salary.

Brandon Moss, 1B/OF/DH ($8.25MM through 2018, including buyout of a 2019 mutual option): Moss, 34, saw his production crater in 2017. The slugger hit just .207/.279/.428 and struck out in nearly a third of his plate appearances, though he did connect on 22 homers and walk at a solid 9.2 percent clip. Still, his struggles in ’17 make him a difficult piece to move right now — especially in a market that is once again rife with first basemen who come with longstanding platoon issues. If he rebounds in the first half, Kansas City shouldn’t have much trouble dealing him to a contender in need of a bench bat come July.

Two Years of Control

Brandon Maurer, RHRP (projected arbitration salary of $3.8MM): Maurer, 27, posted a sky-high 6.52 ERA last year, continuing a trend of delivering questionable bottom-line numbers despite more promising underlying metrics. Maurer averaged 96.6 mph on his heater and racked up a strikeout per inning with solid control. His 1.21 HR/9 mark was a bit high but not extraordinarily so — especially when considering the leaguewide uptick in long balls. But, Maurer stranded just 61.1 percent of the baserunners he allowed, and his career 64.9 percent mark in that category is demonstrably worse than the league average.

Longer-Term Assets

Danny Duffy, SP ($60MM through 2021): One of Kansas City’s most marketable assets, Duffy would be an upgrade for any rotation in the league. The 29-year-old has never crossed the 180-inning threshold in the Majors due to previous injuries and a stint in the K.C. bullpen, but he’s been very good since moving to the rotation on a full-time basis.

Over a span of 50 starts dating back to May 15, 2016, Duffy has worked to a 3.68 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.14 HR/9 and a 37.8 percent ground-ball rate. He’s signed affordably for another four years, and his contract only runs through his age-32 campaign, so interested parties needn’t worry about signing up for too many decline years. He’s not a Jose Quintana or Chris Archer style bargain, but Duffy should command a fairly substantial return in a trade.

Salvador Perez, C ($43.5MM through 2021): The notion of trading Perez likely causes most Kansas City fans to recoil, as the beloved backstop has emerged as one of the faces of the franchise. Few teams are actively looking for a new starting catcher, though Perez would be the type of player that clubs would make other moves to accommodate. That said, the Royals probably relish the notion of keeping Perez on hand to work with a wave of inexperienced young arms, and a trade doesn’t seem especially likely even if they do take off on a large-scale rebuild.

Whit Merrifield, 2B (pre-arbitration, controlled through 2022): Merrifield has enough club control remaining that there’s no urgency to move him, as he could very well be a part of the next contending Royals roster. The late bloomer broke out with a .288/.324/.460 slash in 2017 and led the AL with 34 stolen bases. He’ll turn 29 this month, though, so the Royals could be wary that he’ll be entering a decline once they’re closer to contending again. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal has reported that the Royals are willing to listen to offers on Merrifield.

Scott Alexander, LHRP (pre-arbitration, controlled through 2022): Rosenthal also noted that Alexander could potentially be had even though he, too, has five years of club control remaining. Alexander, 28, turned in an excellent 2.48 ERA in 69 innings last season, averaging 7.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 0.39 HR/9 along the way. Lefties hit .240/.313/.317 against him, while righties mustered just a .250/.333/.347 line.

Ryan Buchter, LHRP (pre-arbitration, controlled through 2021): Buchter’s strikeout rate plummeted following a trade from the Royals to the Padres, as he began to throw fewer four-seamers and curveballs while substantially increasing his use of a cut fastball. The 30-year-old Buchter averaged better than 11 strikeouts per nine innings in a season and a half with the Padres, albeit with shaky control and extreme fly-ball tendencies. He’s been terrific against both lefties (.160/.255/.306) and righties (.179/.284/.339) to this point in his MLB career.

Jorge Soler, OF/DH ($12MM through 2020, may opt into arbitration once eligible): Acquired from the Cubs last offseason, Soler didn’t seize the limited opportunity he has in Kansas City last year. In 110 plate appearances, he batted just .144/.245/.258 with a pair of homers. However, Soler raked at a .267/.388/.564 clip in the minors, leaving some room for optimism that the former top prospect can still realize some of his potential at the big league level. There’s little reason for the Royals to sell low on him, given his affordable nature and relative youth (26 in February).

Salary Dump Candidates

Ian Kennedy ($49MM through 2020), Alex Gordon ($44MM through 2019, including buyout of 2020 mutual option)

Moving either Kennedy or Gordon would be a tall order and would almost certainly require the Royals to take on a similarly undesirable contract in exchange. Kennedy remains a durable source of innings — he’s made at least 30 starts in each of the past eight seasons — but his penchant for giving up home runs expanded to new heights in 2017 (1.99 HR/9, 5.38 ERA). Finding a taker for Gordon’s contract would be difficult enough in and of itself, but the Royals would also be wrestling with the notion of dumping the contract of a player that has long served as the face of the franchise. And, as a player with 10-and-5 rights (10 years of MLB service, the past five with the same team), he has full no-trade protection.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Taking Inventory: Tampa Bay Rays

By Connor Byrne | December 31, 2017 at 8:23pm CDT

Coming off an 80-win campaign, its fourth straight sub-.500 season, Tampa Bay entered the winter in payroll-trimming mode. The Rays opened last season with a paltry payroll of just over $70MM, and if they’re not even willing to spend that amount in 2018, it’ll make competing in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox all the more difficult. It’s possible, then, that the Rays will opt for a major rebuild in the coming months. So far this offseason, they’ve already subtracted third baseman and longtime face of the franchise Evan Longoria, who went to the Giants in a late-December, five-player trade. Odds are that Longoria won’t be the last notable veteran the Rays jettison over the next few months – especially considering they still have multiple trade candidates who would garner strong returns, as you’ll see below.

One-Year Rentals

Denard Span, OF ($13MM, including a $4MM buyout in 2019): The Rays acquired Span in the Longoria trade to help balance out money, so they could flip the 33-year-old before he ever plays a game for them. However, Span didn’t do his trade value any favors in 2017, combining roughly league-average offense (.272/.329/.427 in 542 plate appearances) with the ugliest defensive showing of his career (minus-27 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-7.5 Ultimate Zone Rating). Span may have been the worst defensive outfielder in the majors last season, likely his last as a center fielder. So, Span’s now a defensively limited corner outfielder without a big bat. That’s not a great combination, especially at his price tag and with so many corner options remaining in free agency. In the event the Rays shop Span but don’t find a taker for him, the Tampa Bay native would be thrilled to suit up for his hometown team.

Wilson Ramos, C ($10.5MM): Ramos wasn’t effective in 2017, nor are there many contending teams looking for short-term upgrades at catcher (for those that are, free agents Jonathan Lucroy and Alex Avila could be more appealing). Those factors, not to mention Ramos’ salary, figure to make him a tough sell. Ramos deserves credit for returning last season from the torn ACL he suffered in September 2016, but his offensive production took a dive (he logged a 124 wRC+ in 2016 and a 92 wRC+ in 2017). The former National also endured an uncharacteristically poor defensive season and threw out only 17 percent of would-be base stealers (down from 37 percent the prior year).

Adeiny Hechavarria, SS ($5MM projected arbitration salary): The Marlins sent Hechavarria to the Rays in a payroll-cutting move last June, which should tell you he doesn’t have much trade value. Hechavarria has been an excellent defender of late (23 DRS, 27.9 UZR since 2015), though, and that could make him a target for a team in need of a slick-fielding infielder. Of course, Hechavarria’s inability to contribute offensively has somewhat undermined his terrific glove work. The 29-year-old owns a lifetime .255/.291/.345 batting line (granted, he hit a more respectable .261/.289/406 last season), and he doesn’t offer much power (.090 ISO) or base-stealing prowess (30 of 48 in his career).

Two Years Of Control

Jake Odorizzi, SP ($6.5MM projected salary): The Rays understandably want a respectable haul for the right-handed Odorizzi, who’s a proven big league starter with youth on his side (28 in March). Unfortunately for them, Odorizzi was a disappointment last year (4.14 ERA/5.43 FIP in 143 1/3 innings), thanks in part to injuries (he went on the disabled list once for a hamstring issue and another time on account of back problems), a career-worst walk mark (3.83 per nine) and a bloated home run-to-fly ball rate (15.5 percent).

Both Odorizzi’s struggles last year and a lifetime groundball rate of 33.7 percent stand out as red flags, though he’s not far removed from a 2014-16 stretch in which he averaged 175 frames per season and pitched to a 3.72 ERA/3.91 FIP. Given Odorizzi’s overall track record, the Rays shouldn’t have trouble finding a team for him if they’re motivated to ship him out.

Corey Dickerson, OF/DH ($6.4MM projected salary): Dickerson opened his career in impressive fashion as a Rockie from 2013-15, though the lefty-swinger struggled against same-handed pitchers and away from hitter-friendly Coors Field during that stretch. In 2016, his first year in Tampa Bay, Dickerson did little to quell concerns that he was a platoon bat and a product of the Mile High air, but he bounced back to a degree last season. The 28-year-old earned his first All-Star nod on the strength of a .312/.355/.548 first-half line, though his production dropped off sharply after mid-July (.241/.282/.408). Moreover, Statcast indicates Dickerson’s expected weighted-on base average (.310) paled in comparison to his actual wOBA (.350). There remain questions about Dickerson’s offensive game, then; on the positive side, Dickerson was similarly solid against both right- and left-handed pitchers for the first time in his career last season, and the advanced metrics (one DRS, 8.7 UZR) looked favorably on his defense from 2016-17. Still, this probably isn’t a player who’s teeming with trade value.

Brad Miller, IF ($4.4MM projected salary): The Rays may have shopped Miller, 28, before tendering him a contract last month. If they did, teams likely weren’t lining up for a player who trudged through a miserable, injury-affected 2017. After posting terrific power numbers (30 homers, .239 ISO) and hitting .243/.304/.482 as a first baseman/shortstop in 2016, he limped to a .201/.327/.337 line with nine HRs and a .136 ISO as a second baseman last season. While Miller is versatile defensively, he has never held his own anywhere with the glove. All things considered, there’s not much value here at the moment.

Dan Jennings, RP ($2.5MM projected salary): Tampa Bay was in the playoff race approaching last July’s non-waiver trade deadline, which led the club to ship a decent prospect – first baseman Casey Gillaspie – to the White Sox for the left-handed Jennings. The Rays fell apart over the season’s final couple months, making the acquisition somewhat of a waste. The club could now try to flip the inexpensive Jennings, who has held his own for most of his career. Jennings has fared nicely against both left- and right-handed hitters, having limited the former to a .307 wOBA and the latter to a .300 mark. While his lifetime strikeout and walk numbers aren’t palatable (7.31 K/9, 4.09 BB/9), Jennings has induced grounders at a 55.2 percent clip and managed a 2.90 ERA over 279 2/3 innings. The soon-to-be 31-year-old may bring back something useful in a trade, then, if the Rays are inclined to move him.

Longer-Term Assets

Kevin Kiermaier, OF (controllable through 2023 for $60MM): There has been no real chatter this winter about the Rays dealing Kiermaier, whom they locked up to an extension prior to last season. Although the solid-hitting defensive maven seems likely to stick in Tampa Bay for the foreseeable future, he’d certainly draw plenty of looks on the trade market. Dating back to 2014, his breakout season, Kiermaier ranks eighth among outfielders in fWAR (16.1), owing to his all-around game. Kiermaier, who will turn 28 in April, combined for ridiculous defensive numbers in center over the previous four seasons (103 DRS, 62.8 UZR) and complemented those with an above-average batting line (.262/.319/.431) and base-stealing ability (60 on 79 tries).

Chris Archer, SP (controllable through 2021 for $34MM): With Kiermaier unlikely to go anywhere, the 29-year-old Archer stands out as the crown jewel of the Rays’ realistic trade possibilities; more than that, the durable, hard-throwing righty’s track record and team-friendly contract combine to make him one of the game’s most valuable assets. As a result, the Rays could simply keep him and continue to benefit from his presence. But if they opt for a full-scale rebuild, aggressively shopping Archer would make sense. While it’s unclear how serious the Rays actually are about trading Archer, he has already garnered significant interest this offseason, unsurprisingly.

Alex Colome, RP ($5.5MM projected arbitration salary; controllable through 2020): A Colome trade looked like an inevitably entering the offseason, and multiple teams have aggressively pursued him recently, but no deal has come together yet. One of those suitors, Colorado, is likely out of the Colome market after signing fellow closer Wade Davis this week. Still, there are other teams with late-game needs – namely St. Louis – that could put together a package for the former starter. Colome, who turned 29 on New Year’s Eve, is coming off a league-best 47-save season (his second full-time campaign as a reliever), though he did see his other numbers fall off precipitously compared to 2016. His K/9 (11.28 to 7.83), BB/9 (2.38 to 3.11), swinging-strike percentage (15.1 to 11.6) and ERA (1.91 to 3.24) all went in the wrong direction last year.

Steven Souza, OF ($3.6MM projected arbitration salary; controllable through 2020): At least one team has checked in with the Rays about the righty-hitting Souza this offseason, but there’s no indication he’s going anywhere. The Rays would be selling high on the three-year veteran if they did part with him, though; despite hip problems, Souza’s fresh off a season in which he slashed .239/.351/.459 with personal bests in PAs (617), home runs (30), ISO (.220) walk rate (13 percent) and strikeout rate (29 percent). It’s worth noting that Souza wasn’t nearly as effective in the two prior seasons, and his xwOBA (.334) fell well short of his actual wOBA (.353) in 2017. To his credit, the soon-to-be 29-year-old complemented his most recent output at the plate with plus defense (seven DRS, 4.3 UZR) in right field for the second straight season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Taking Inventory: Miami Marlins

By Kyle Downing | December 30, 2017 at 12:31pm CDT

In an effort to cut payroll, the new Marlins ownership group (headlined by Derek Jeter) has already kicked off a fire sale of major league assets. They’ve traded three significant players so far in Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna, and only the latter of the three netted any significant prospect haul. Miami has succeeded in getting big salaries off the books, but their farm system still looks bleak and lacks top-rated prospects (though some pitchers in their system have upside).

So while the team has already completed its stated salary-slashing objective, the moves made so far have put the franchise in an in-between kind of state. Miami finished last season with a 77-85 record, and then traded away three players who were worth a combined 15 fWAR. The only major league asset who came back in return was Starlin Castro, who was worth about 2 fWAR in 2017. All told, the Marlins’ roster looks about 13 wins worse than last season, which in theory would make them about as good as last year’s Tigers club.

Of course, it doesn’t exactly work that way, but the writing on the wall here is that the Marlins aren’t going to do a whole lot of winning next season. They’d face enormous odds in challenging the Nationals for the NL East crown. Aside from that, their farm system is dwarfed by those of the division-rival Braves and Phillies, both of whom are on the rise. Clearly the club isn’t planning on improving the team through free agency, as that would counteract the enormous effort the team made to reduce payroll. As such, there appears to be no reason to stop selling now. There are a few players on the roster who could help the Fish add significant prospects to their minor league ranks and improve the organization’s future outlook…

Two Years of Control

Starlin Castro, 2B ($22MM owed through 2019, including $1MM buyout of $16MM option for 2020): When Castro came to Miami in the Stanton deal, trade speculation began immediately. There’s probably some surplus value to be had in the 27-year-old’s contract considering his reasonable salary and the fact that he’s still in his prime. With the Marlins having already met their payroll-related goals, they probably even have the flexibility to pay some of his salary in order to get better prospects in exchange. Castro is coming off a .300/.338/.454 season, but poor defensive play at second limits his value to an extent.

Longer-Term Assets

J.T. Realmuto, C ($4.2MM projected arb salary for 2018): MLBTR has already talked about Realmuto’s trade candidacy at length this month (including an in-depth piece on his market), so I’ll keep this short. Realmuto has already requested a trade, and although he doesn’t have any real leverage in the matter, he seems a likely candidate to be wearing another uniform even before he hits free agency following the 2020 season. The Marlins catcher was worth at least 3.5 fWAR in each of the past two seasons, and plenty of contenders and up-and-comers would love to have that kind of value coming from a premium position on the diamond. It would, however, take a reportedly “huge overpay” to pry him out of Miami’s hands.

Christian Yelich, OF ($44.5MM owed through 2021, including $1.25MM buyout of $15MM option for 2022): Yelich has also been one of the more common names to pop up in trade rumors this offseason. He’s easily the Marlins’ most valuable asset; the former first round pick has been worth about 16 fWAR across the past four seasons combined. With five more years of team control, however, there’s at least a chance he could be part of the next winning Marlins club at a very reasonable price, so there’s less of a reason for the team to move him there is to move other assets. Among the plusses for Yelich are good defense in the outfield, a 10.7% career walk rate and improved baserunning ability.

Dan Straily, RHP ($4.6MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): While Straily isn’t as talented (or receiving as much trade attention) as elite options like Michael Fulmer, Chris Archer and Gerrit Cole, he’s a league-average MLB talent who could be made available in a thin and expensive market for pitching. Straily posted a 4.26 ERA in 2017 along with a 2.83 K/BB ratio and comes with three years of team control.

Justin Bour, 1B ($3.5MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): Amidst Marlins rumors, it’s somewhat of a surprise to me that Bour’s name hasn’t been mentioned more often. Miami’s left-handed-hitting first baseman enjoyed a breakout season in 2017 prior to an oblique injury. Upon his return in early September, he picked up right where he left off, and ultimately finished the season with an outstanding .289/.366/.536 slash line to go with 25 home runs across just 429 plate appearances. With the Rockies, Angels and Mariners still looking for first base help, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the market for Bour heat up at some point. He wouldn’t come cheap, though, as he’s cost-effective and controllable through arbitration from 2018-2020.

Kyle Barraclough, RHRP (League minimum salary for 2018): Barraclough has a sky-high career strikeout rate 12.05 K/9), but carries the downside of an equally absurd walk rate (5.52 BB/9). The net result is a sort of effectively-wild performance that’s led to fantastic career run-prevention numbers, headlined by a 2.87 ERA. With elite relievers becoming more and more in demand, it’s conceivable Barraclough could net a hefty return.

Derek Dietrich, INF ($3.2MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): Though he’s not a full-time player, Dietrich has managed to accrue at least 1.5 fWAR in each of the past two seasons, and can play both second and third base. He’d be a cheap utility infield option on a contending team, and comes with three years of team control. He hit .249/.334/.424 in 2017 with 13 homers, making him a nearly average offensive player at 99 wRC+.

Salary Dump Candidates

Wei-Yin Chen, LHP ($60MM owed through 2020, with a $16MM vesting option for 2021): Simply put, this offseason would be the worst possible time to trade Chen. After missing most of the season due to elbow issues, Chen returned to make just four appearances out of the bullpen in September prior to being shut down. While he was generally good when on the field (3.82 ERA, 3.73 FIP), the Marlins would have an incredibly difficult time trying to move any of his salary until he can settle concerns about his elbow.

Martin Prado, 3B ($28.5MM owed through 2019): Prado is coming off a dreadful 2017 season in which he was able to muster just 147 plate appearances due to multiple injuries. He posted just a 67 wRC+ across that time, and will enter the 2018 season at 34 years of age. There have been reports that the Marlins might try to attach Prado to a trade of a more valuable asset in order to clear his salary, but like Chen, it might be the wrong time to trade him. After all, he averaged 3 WAR from 2014-2016 thanks to a .295/.341/.407 slash line and elite defense at the hot corner.

Brad Ziegler, RHRP ($9MM salary for 2018): The issue with Ziegler is his recent inability to miss bats. The righty struck out fewer than five batters per nine innings in 2018 and experienced a steep drop in velocity on his sinker. All told, Ziegler was tagged for 25 earned runs in 47 innings. Perhaps he’s another candidate to re-established value prior to the trade deadline, but he’s also 38 years old; it’s also possible the Marlins could be better served simply trying to find a taker for as much of his salary as possible.

Junichi Tazawa, RHRP ($7MM salary for 2018): See Ziegler. Okay, not exactly, but Tazawa’s outlook isn’t much more promising other than the fact that he’s seven years younger. The righty is two years removed from his last respectable season. Last year was his worst performance yet: he was valued below replacement level thanks to a 5.69 ERA and 4.96 FIP. Miami’s best chance to move his salary would be to try to include him in a trade along with Realmuto, Yelich or another contract with significant excess value.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Taking Inventory: Chicago White Sox

By Kyle Downing | December 27, 2017 at 2:50pm CDT

The White Sox haven’t been shy about blowing up their major league team lately. Within the past 13 months, GM Rick Hahn has shipped out nearly half the players who were on the club’s 25-man roster at the end of the 2016 season. Most notably, Chicaco was able to land killer hauls for Chris Sale, Adam Eaton and Jose Quintana.

The teardown has resulted in a tidal wave of incredible young talent. Yoan Moncada, Carson Fulmer, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez are already playing at the MLB level, and the club has three top 25 overall prospects still waiting in the wings. However, as one might imagine, the club is still not ready to contend. Player development isn’t always linear, and it will take at least a couple of years for the newfound cavalry to arrive from the farm system, let alone find success in the majors. As such, the White Sox are likely to continue trading away major league pieces with limited team control in order to add talent they can count on during their next window of contention.

Here’s a list of remaining assets that the South Siders might consider moving in the coming months…

Two Years of Control

Jose Abreu, 1B ($17.9MM projected arb salary): Since coming to Chicago from Cuba, Abreu has been an offensive force for the White Sox, evidenced by his .301/.359/.524 batting line and 139 wRC+ with the organization. He’s averaged 31 homers and 665 plate appearances across his four major league seasons, making him one of the most reliable offensive players in the game. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently profiled his trade market, listing the Red Sox, Rangers and Rockies among his potential suitors. Abreu’s expensive salary (which will likely get another hefty boost in 2019) limits his trade value, but there’s still a clear surplus here. A crowded first base market complicates things a bit, but he could still draw plenty of interest from other clubs.

Avisail Garcia, OF ($6.7MM projected arb salary): Garcia enjoyed the best season of his career in 2017 after shedding some weight during the 2016-2017 offseason. The right-handed-hitting outfielder was in contention for the AL batting title for most of the year (thanks in part to a .392 BABIP), and was worth 4.2 fWAR overall. A while back, I broke down his hypothetical trade market, listing the Indians, Rockies and Diamondbacks as potential landing spots.

Rival organizations will obviously be skeptical about Garcia’s ability to repeat this performance considering his career 90 wRC+ prior to last season. Oddly, his hard hit rate and average exit velocity were basically in line with his 2016 figures. Still, it would be irresponsible for teams to write his 2017 season as entirely a fluke; Garcia did trade a few ground balls for fly balls and improve his contact rate, after all.

Longer-Term Assets

Nate Jones, RHP ($3.95MM salary for 2018, $545K club option for 2019, $3.75MM club option for 2020, $4.25MM club option for 2021. $1.25MM buyout on 2020-2021 options): A quick look at Jones’ numbers since his return from Tommy John surgery makes his contract look like a steal, particularly considering the lucrative deals given out to relievers so far this offseason. However, the righty reliever is highly unlikely to be traded this offseason after missing most of 2017 due to nerve repositioning surgery. He’ll likely need to reestablish his value before the White Sox can move him. A return to his 2016 form, however, would put Jones in the upper echelon of MLB relievers, and send his trade value through the roof.

Yolmer Sanchez, 2B ($2.1 projected arb salary for 2018): Formerly known as Carlos Sanchez, the switch-hitting second baseman rebranded himself in 2017. While it may have created moments of confusion for more casual White Sox fans, they’re just fine it that considering his improvements on the field. This past season, Sanchez hit .267/.319/.413 while playing excellent defense at the keystone. The 25-year-old Venezuela native was worth 8 defensive runs saved in 620 innings and ranked second in UZR/150 among MLB second baseman (minimum 500 innings). With four years of team control remaining, it’s certainly possible that Sanchez could be around for the next competitive White Sox team. However, he could yield plenty of value in a trade.

Carlos Rodon, LHP ($2MM projected arb salary for 2018): In all seriousness, Rodon probably won’t be traded any time soon. After an injury-plagued 2017 season that ended with shoulder surgery, no team will likely be willing to give up the prospects it would take to pry him out of Chicago’s hands. However, he’s on this list simply for the possibility that he could reestablish value prior to the coming season’s trade deadline. While the former number three overall pick might miss a portion of 2018, he comes with enormous upside. With the market for pitching being what it is, trading Rodon could provide an enormous boost to an already-strong farm system. Of course, the White Sox would need to be overwhelmed by an offer in order to consider moving him, as they can still retain him through 2021. Still, the club was content to move Jose Quintana at last year’s deadline, so Rodon is at least worth a mention on this list.

Salary Dump Candidates

James Shields, RHP ($21MM salary for 2018, $16MM club option for 2019 with a $2MM buyout): Any trade involving Shields would probably involve the White Sox sending some money along with him. The right-hander has an ERA well over 5.00 since coming to Chicago, and has walked over four batters per nine innings pitched during that time. His numbers in five September starts this past season were more palatable, however, and it’s worth noting that the White Sox are only on the hook for about half of Shields’ 2018 salary. Perhaps some team will be willing to take a chance on him as a back-of-the-rotation innings eater. Either way, he’s a one-year piece; his 2019 club option is highly unlikely to be exercised.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Taking Inventory: Detroit Tigers

By Steve Adams | December 26, 2017 at 11:46am CDT

The Tigers have already dealt with a significant portion of their offseason business, dealing their most obvious trade candidate, Ian Kinsler, to the Angels during this month’s Winter Meetings. They’ve also filled some holes with affordable veterans, picking up Mike Fiers for the fifth spot in the rotation and adding Leonys Martin on a low-cost, one-year deal to fill center field.

Still, the Detroit front office is hardly set to merely call it an offseason. The Tigers made clear with their trade of Kinsler and their summer trades of Justin Verlander, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, Justin Wilson and Alex Avila that they’re embarking on a full-scale teardown of the organization. Although those trades have strengthened a thin Tigers farm system, the team still has work to do as it builds up toward a top-of-the-line minor league system and a generally more sustainable avenue to contention than perennially shelling out $200MM+ payrolls.

With Kinsler out of the picture, here’s a look at the remaining assets the Tigers could realistically market this winter…

One-Year Rentals

Jose Iglesias, SS ($5.6MM projected arbitration salary): A superlative defender at shortstop, Iglesias delivered solid offensive output in 2013-15 before his bat deteriorated in 2016-17. He’s batted just .255/.297/.353 across the past two seasons, but for a team in need of a defensive upgrade in the infield or on the bench, Iglesias would be a reasonably low-priced upgrade.

Two Years of Control

Nicholas Castellanos, OF/3B ($7.6MM projected arb salary): Castellanos’ overall .272/.320/.490 was above-average but not outstanding. However, the former top prospect ranked fifth in the Majors in hard-contact rate (among qualified hitters), and Statcast credited him for the 10th-highest number of barreled balls in all of Major League Baseball.

Castellanos comes with significant defensive questions, as he’s been a staggering 64 runs below average in 4400 innings at third base (per Defensive Runs Saved) and eight runs below average in just 211 innings in the outfield. He’s not exactly cheap, but the batted-ball profile could make him intriguing to a team that believes he could improve with additional reps in the outfield.

Alex Wilson, RHRP ($2.1MM projected arb salary): The 31-year-old righty is coming off the worst season of his career (4.50 ERA, 6.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9, 41.6 percent ground-ball rate), but he was a quality bullpen piece for the Red Sox and Tigers from 2014-16. During that time, Wilson logged a 2.47 ERA in 171 1/3 innings of work, albeit with a pedestrian 5.6 K/9 mark against a more encouraging 1.9 BB/9 clip. He’s no stranger to working multi-inning stints and represents an affordable middle relief option.

Longer-Term Assets

Michael Fulmer, SP (pre-arbitration): Fulmer, obviously, would command the largest return of anyone the Tigers could make available. The 2016 AL Rookie of the Year is controlled for another five full seasons and won’t reach arbitration until next winter, when he qualifies for Super Two status. Fulmer was carrying a 3.06 ERA and 3.24 FIP with 6.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.51 HR/9 and a 50.4 percent ground-ball rate through his first 123 2/3 innings this season before his production fell off a cliff. He ultimately underwent surgery to repair the ulnar nerve in his right arm in mid-September, bringing his sophomore season to a close.

The Tigers could extract a king’s ransom for Fulmer, though some teams may be wary of paying top dollar (in terms of prospects) for a pitcher coming off elbow surgery without first seeing that he’s rebounded to an extent. There’s little urgency to trade Fulmer when he can be controlled for the next half decade, but the dearth of high-quality arms available on the trade market could motivate a club to put together a massive offer.

Shane Greene, RHRP ($1.7MM projected arb salary, controlled through 2020): Greene showed plenty to like in his first full season as a reliever, averaging 9.7 K/9 with a 47.4 percent ground-ball rate and a heater that averaged 95 mph en route to a 2.66 ERA through 67 2/3 innings. However, he also posted just an 8.6 percent swinging-strike rate, averaged 4.5 walks per nine and allowed a huge 41.3 percent hard-contact rate. That’s not ideal for a late-inning reliever, of course, though Greene’s strong spin rate on his slider (which ranked 20th of 173 relievers who threw the pitch at least 100 times) could give teams optimism that there’s some untapped potential.

James McCann, C ($2.3MM rojected arb salary, controlled through 2020): McCann won’t turn 28 until next summer, and he’s coming off the best offensive season of his career, having slashed .253/.318/.415 with a career-best 13 homers. He’s long had his share of struggles against righties, but the right-handed-hitting McCann has absolutely obliterated left-handed pitching in his career, as evidenced by a .287/.346/.538 batting line (including .298/.371/.558 in 2017). McCann has thrown out 37 percent of would-be base thieves in his career, though he drew poor marks from Baseball Prospectus for his pitch framing and blocking in 2017. (He was solid in both regards in 2016.) A contender in need of an upgrade behind the dish (e.g. the Nationals) could try to pry McCann away from the Tigers, as he almost certainly won’t be a part of the next competitive Detroit club.

Mikie Mahtook, OF (pre-arbitration): The Tigers have only had Mahtook for one year, having successfully bought low on the former first-rounder last February in a trade with the Rays. The 28-year-old batted .276/.330/.457 through 379 trips to the plate with Detroit. Mahtook has played all three outfield spots, and while most metrics aren’t kind to him in center field, he’s drawn solid UZR marks in the corners (DRS doesn’t care for his glovework anywhere, while Statcast pegged him as a neutral defender in 2017). Detroit can hang onto him for another four years, so there’s no rush to move him. The return, at present, would probably be fairly minimal. However, another solid year — perhaps with greater playing time — could bolster intrigue.

Miguel Cabrera, 1B/DH (six years, $192MM remaining): It’s almost unfathomable to envision a Cabrera trade on the heels of a .249/.329/.399 (92 OPS+) season when he’s owed a staggering average of $32MM over the next six seasons. The former MVP was diagnosed with a pair of herniated disks in his back in September and will play next season at the age of 35. If Cabrera were a free agent right now, he’d earn a mere fraction of that remaining commitment. No one would take on his contract — all of which may be moot, as he also has full no-trade protection.

Salary Dump Candidates

Jordan Zimmermann (three years, $74MM remaining; full no-trade clause), Victor Martinez (one year, $18MM remaining; full no-trade clause)

The Tigers would love to shed either of these contracts, but it’s difficult to see any takers lining up — especially for Zimmermann. Detroit can hold out some hope that Zimmermann will rebound in 2018, which would position him as a more plausible trade candidate after the 2018 season, when his no-trade provision drops from all 29 other teams to a limited 10-team clause. That’s a lot to expect, though, considering his diminished velocity, strikeout rate and ground-ball rate (to say nothing of a skyrocketing home run rate).

Martinez, meanwhile, just turned 39 years old and is coming off a season in which he hit just .255/.324/.372 and was limited to 435 plate appearances, in part due to a pair of DL stints for an irregular heartbeat. His value is at an all-time low, and he’s been mentioned as a speculative release candidate more than a potential trade piece.

Taking Inventory: Toronto Blue Jays

By Steve Adams | July 12, 2017 at 8:24pm CDT

This is the 13th entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory Series.

The non-waiver trade deadline is just 19 days away, and over the coming weeks there will be several teams that at one point looked to be fringe contenders but are now gravitating toward marketing certain veteran assets. One such club is the Blue Jays, who are reportedly open to offers on their short-term veterans. There’s an important distinction to make between that and operating as a full-on seller; there’s yet to be any serious indication that the Jays are interested in a lengthy rebuild. In fact, Toronto has reported interest in acquiring Dee Gordon and has reportedly scouted Jose Quintana.

It’s easy to get caught up in the dichotomy of “buyers” versus “sellers,” but the lines are nowhere near so black and white for most clubs. The Jays could look to move some expensive assets right now — the veterans they’re reportedly open to moving are relatively well compensated and have been injured and/or haven’t performed up to standard — while also adding some longer-term pieces for a reloaded run in 2018 and beyond. That said, here’s a look at what they have to offer, both in terms of short-term pieces and higher-impact, long-term pieces (if a larger tear-down is eventually settled upon).

[Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart | Toronto Blue Jays Payroll Outlook]

Rentals

Marco Estrada, RHP (starter) | Salary: $14MM (approx. $6.27MM remaining)

The most interesting name among the Blue Jays’ rentals, Estrada was in the midst of a brilliant season before an awful month of June and a clunker in early July torpedoed his ERA. That said, the righty still has intriguing peripherals, with 9.8 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 and a fastball that’s noticeably harder than it was in 2016 (though still sits at an average of just 90.1 mph). Estrada’s chase rate and swinging-strike rate are both the second-best of his career as well. Estrada has a history of back issues, but if a team believes him to be fully healthy and thinks June was largely an aberration, he could be a significant upgrade to a big league rotation for two months or so.

Francisco Liriano, LHP (starter) | $13MM ($5.83MM)

Consistency was always an issue for Liriano before he signed with the Pirates, but his previous control issues came back to haunt him in Pittsburgh last year, prompting a trade to Toronto. He was sensational down the stretch in 2016, but the Jays have had the bad version of Liriano for much of the current season. The 33-year-old’s strikeout and walk rates have both raced in the opposite direction of last year’s excellent post-trade marks, and his 44.9 percent grounder rate is his worst since 2012. It’s cliche to call Liriano “mercurial” or “enigmatic” at this point, but the labels fit. If a pitching-needy team feels like it can solve Liriano, the cost of acquisition won’t be too high.

Jose Bautista, OF/DH | $18.5MM ($8.57MM)

After a terrible April, the “Joey Bats” of old emerged in May — a month during which Bautista was one of the very best hitters on the planet. He followed that up with another terrible month in June, though things have started to even out a bit more recently. It’s been a roller coaster ride for Bautista in 2017, but the strikeouts are up and the power is down; the result to this point is a .234/.349/.400 slash that wRC+ and OPS+ grade as roughly league average. Considering his lack of defensive value, that line won’t cut it. The Jays could market him this summer, but it’ll be tough to get much in return, even if they eat some salary.

Joe Smith, RHP (reliever) | $3MM ($1.34MM)

Smith hasn’t pitched since June 14 due to shoulder inflammation, but he’s most of the way through a minor league rehab stint and has been good when healthy. He’s sporting a 3.41 ERA with considerably better peripherals (13.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 46.5 percent ground-ball rate) through 31 2/3 frames. Assuming he gets healthy, Smith could be an affordable bullpen piece that’ll draw plenty of interest.

J.P. Howell, LHP (reliever) | $3MM ($1.34MM)

Howell (shoulder soreness) is also on the disabled list and partway through a minor league rehab stint, though his season has been much different than that of Smith. The 34-year-old has been limited to just 8 2/3 innings this year because of said shoulder troubles, during which he’s posted an 8.31 ERA and walked more batters (seven) than he’s struck out (five). A healthy Howell is a nice bullpen piece, but teams aren’t going to give up much to get him given this year’s injuries.

Darwin Barney, 2B/SS | $2.8875MM ($1.29MM)

The 31-year-old Barney can play both middle infield positions and has a strong defensive reputation, but his bat has been nonexistent in 2017. Through 168 PAs, he’s hitting .231/.277/.295. He was a valuable bench piece in Toronto as recently as 2016, though, so a team could speculatively pick him up on the cheap and hope for a bit more with the bat.

Controlled Through 2018

Josh Donaldson, 3B | $11.65MM in 2017, $17MM in 2018

To be as clear and up-front as possible, there’s been no serious suggestion that the Jays are willing to even entertain offers on the 2015 American League MVP. Donaldson missed about six weeks of the season due to a calf injury (which played a huge role in the team’s poor first half) but has been productive, albeit not quite his dominant self when healthy. Through 193 PAs, he’s slashing .261/.383/.484 with nine homers and nine doubles. The Blue Jays won’t move Donaldson unless they’re seriously considering at least a medium-scale rebuild, as moving him would almost immediately signal a white flag of sorts for the 2018 season. If Donaldson is made available (a big “if”), he’d require an enormous package of talent featuring multiple top prospects and/or MLB-ready commodities.

J.A. Happ, LHP (starter) | $13MM in 2017, $13MM in 2018

Moving Happ wouldn’t quite be the 2018 concession that a Donaldson trade would represent, but he’d still require a notable package of young talent to acquire. After reinventing himself following a trade from Seattle to Pittsburgh in 2015, Happ has maintained much of that newfound excellent in his second go-around with the Jays. Elbow inflammation cost him a couple of months of the 2017 season, but he’s been strong since returning from the disabled list. Dating back to Opening Day 2016, Happ boasts a 3.27 ERA, 7.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 256 innings. He’s a solid and fairly priced mid-rotation arm, meaning he won’t come cheaply in a trade.

Steve Pearce, 1B/OF/2B | $6.25MM in 2017, $6.25MM in 2018

Pearce hasn’t hit nearly as well as he did with the Orioles in 2014 or the Rays in 2016. His .259/.320/.430 slash is solid enough, and he’s still a power threat against lefties that can play multiple positions on the field. But he, too, has spent time on the DL this season, and his salary isn’t necessarily cheap if he can’t rediscover some of his 2014 or 2016 form at the dish.

Aaron Loup, LHP (reliever) | $1.125MM in 2017, arb-eligible through 2018

Loup can miss bats and keep the ball on the ground, but his walk rate has soared in 2017 while lefties have clobbered him. I doubt he’s going to be anyone’s Plan A or B, but he could still change hands on deadline day even if the Jays aren’t punting on the 2018 season. He’s a non-tender candidate after the year but has a decent track record against lefty batters.

Longer-Term Assets

Justin Smoak, 1B | $4.125MM in 2017, $4.125MM in 2018 (plus $6MM club option/$250K buyout for 2019)

The Yonder Alonso of the East, Smoak has gone from busted prospect to All-Star in short order thanks to a revamped swing plane and, as he tells it, some offseason work with a sports psychologist. The contract is so affordable that even if he takes a bit of a step back, he now looks like a bargain. This time last year, most were curious as to why the Jays offered him a two-year extension. Now, any team looking for help at first base or DH — and there admittedly aren’t many — would love to buy into his new approach. The lack of a market and his highly affordable contract make a deal seem unlikely, though.

Jeff Beliveau, LHP (reliever) | Not arbitration-eligible until 2018-19 offseason

Beliveau has proven to be a nice find on a minor league deal for the Jays, having tossed 32 innings with a 3.09 ERA, 12.1 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in Triple-A prior to a big league promotion. It’s been more of the same through his first 14 1/3 innings back in the Majors; he’s worked to a 3.14 ERA with a 15-to-4 K/BB ratio. The sample of work is pretty small, and Beliveau was out of the Majors for most of two seasons due to 2015 surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder. The value here isn’t huge, but a team looking for some left-handed relief help might kick the tires.

Marcus Stroman, RHP (starter) | $3.4MM in 2017, arb-eligible through 2020 (Super Two)

Speaking of unlikely, a Stroman trade would only happen if the Jays elected to completely tear things down. I don’t expect that to happen, but as a pitcher who has already reached arbitration and is going to make a nice raise on an already decent salary in arbitration, Stroman would be the one long-term rotation piece I could see moving in that scenario. Again, though, it’s not likely.

Large Contracts

Kendrys Morales, 1B/DH | $10MM in 2017, $11MM in 2018, $12MM in 2019
Troy Tulowitzki, SS | $20MM annually 2017-19, $14MM in 2020 (plus $15MM club option/$4MM buyout for 2021)
Russell Martin, C | $20MM annually 2017-19

Morales and Tulowitzki aren’t hitting well enough for anyone to really consider taking on either of those deals in a trade, though the Jays wouldn’t mind shedding the cash. Martin’s offense is down somewhat in 2017, but he’s still been a valuable backstop, even if he’s slightly overpaid. That said, he’ll turn 35 this winter with $40MM on the books beyond the current campaign, and there aren’t too many clubs lining up to acquire a catcher in the first place.

Taking Inventory: Oakland Athletics

By Connor Byrne | July 9, 2017 at 2:59pm CDT

This is the 12th entry in MLBTR’s Taking Inventory Series. Click for entries on the White Sox, Royals, Phillies, Pirates, Giants, Padres, Reds, Braves, Tigers, Marlins and Mets.

With the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline just over three weeks away, the Athletics are unsurprisingly in position to sell. At the outset of the season, there were no realistic expectations that the A’s would contend for a playoff spot, and they’ve since stumbled to a 39-49 mark to rank as one of the American League’s worst teams. Along the way, Oakland has lost a couple potential veteran trade candidates in third baseman Trevor Plouffe and catcher Stephen Vogt, both of whom received their walking papers last month and are now in different uniforms. As bleak as things may seem for the A’s, some of their other likely trade chips have turned in encouraging performances this year, and moving those players in the coming weeks could produce returns that benefit the franchise for years to come.

Rentals

Yonder Alonso, 1B | Salary: $4MM

It was somewhat of a surprise last offseason when the A’s elected to tender a contract to Alonso, who was among the majors’ worst first basemen in 2016. Now, three months into the current campaign, it’s fair to say executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane and general manager David Forst made a wise decision to stick with Alonso. An underwhelming hitter for most of his career, the 30-year-old has changed to a fly ball-first approach this season and posted a tremendous .278/.374/.569 line across 294 plate appearances. Thanks largely to a 49.5 percent fly ball rate (up from 33.3 percent last year), Alonso has swatted a career-high 20 home runs – two more than he combined for in 1,222 PAs from 2014-16 – and recorded the majors’ eighth-best ISO (.290). There’s clearly a lot to like here, though it’s uncertain how much trade value Alonso will have because of a possible lack of leaguewide demand at first base (granted, the Yankees look like a logical match). If the A’s are unable to net a satisfactory offer for Alonso, perhaps they’ll keep him and try to work out an extension. Both sides have interest in staying together.

Rajai Davis, OF | Salary: $6MM

It’s difficult to imagine the A’s finding a taker for Davis without at least absorbing some of his salary. The 36-year-old is in the midst of a career-worst offensive season, after all, having hit a meek .210/.267/.308 in 244 plate trips. At a cheaper price tag, he could entice a playoff-bound team looking for a late-game threat on the base paths. Davis is one of the greatest baserunners of all-time, per FanGraphs’ BsR metric, and has made effective use of his legs this year with a 3.4 BsR and 15 steals. Although unlikely, perhaps Davis’ wheels will cancel out his less-than-stellar offensive and defensive production (minus-one DRS, minus-12 UZR/150 this season) on the trade market. And hey, the ex-Indian’s not far removed from hitting one of the most memorable home runs in postseason history.

Adam Rosales, UTIL | Salary: $1.25MM

Even though he struck out in 35.5 percent of PAs last year, the then-Padre rode a bloated home run-to-fly rate (21.7 percent) and an 11.7 percent walk rate to a .229/.319/.495 line and a guaranteed contract with the A’s. Unfortunately, Rosales has given back those gains this season (7.4 percent HR-to-FB rate, 4.3 percent walk rate) and continued to strike out over 30 percent of the time. Consequently, the 34-year-old has hit a subpar .233/.271/.347 in 210 tries. But Rosales has offered a passable bat versus left-handed pitching, as he typically has throughout his career, and has the ability to play all over the diamond. At his low salary, then, Rosales could potentially bring back a small return in a trade.

John Axford, RP | Salary: $5.5MM

Good luck dealing the somewhat expensive Axford, who has pitched to a woeful 5.95 ERA over 19 2/3 innings this season. To his credit, the 34-year-old Axford is running appealing strikeout (9.15 K/9) and ground-ball rates (54.1 percent). However, the former Milwaukee closer has cancelled out the positives with control problems (6.41 BB/9) and issues keeping the ball in the park (21.4 percent HR-to-FB rate).

Controlled Through 2018

Ryan Madson, RP | Salary: $7.5MM in both 2017 and ’18

After a mediocre 2016 in Oakland, his first year with the club, Madson has rebounded to resemble the reliever who was a significant asset in both Philadelphia and Kansas City earlier in his career. Across 35 2/3 frames, the hard-throwing, 36-year-old right-hander has notched a 2.27 ERA with 8.58 K/9 and 1.51 BB/9. Moreover, Madson owns impressive ground-ball and infield pop-up rates of 56.2 percent and 11.8 percent, respectively. In sum, he’s striking out hitters at a decent clip while limiting walks and rarely yielding threatening contact. Pitchers who can do those things simultaneously are valuable commodities, and bullpen-needy contenders have taken notice of Madson’s success this season.

Jed Lowrie, 2B/SS/3B | Salary: $6.5MM in 2017; $6MM club option (or $1MM buyout) in 2018

Health problems, including poor sleep (via FanGraphs’ Eno Sarris), derailed Lowrie in recent seasons. But the 33-year-old is enjoying a career renaissance in 2017, having logged a .282/.350/.464 line and nine homers in 354 PAs. As a result, there’s interest in Lowrie, whom the A’s seem likely to part with in an effort to open up a spot in the middle infield for well-regarded prospect Franklin Barreto.

Santiago Casilla, RP | Salary: $4.5MM in 2017; $5.5MM in 2018

In his first year back with the A’s, with whom the closer formerly known as Jairo Garcia pitched from 2004-09, Casilla has saved 15 of 19 opportunities and registered a so-so 3.82 ERA over 33 innings. There are some troubling signs that have contributed to the ex-Giant’s mediocre run prevention, including a K/9 that has fallen from 10.09 last season to 8.18 this year, a plummeting grounder rate (40.8 percent, compared to 47.6 percent in 2016) and a decline in infield flies (a still-respectable 10.8 percent; the righty was at 13.2 percent a year ago). Despite his unexciting production and advanced age (37 later this month), Casilla still looks both inexpensive enough and decent enough to generate looks in the coming weeks.

Matt Joyce, OF | Salary: $5MM in 2017; $6MM in 2018

The 32-year-old is in the middle of a typical season relative to his career, having mixed an adequate left-handed bat (.219/.330/.406 with 11 HRs and a 13.8 percent walk rate in 297 PAs) with unspectacular outfield defense (minus-three DRS, minus-9.2 UZR/150). Joyce offers an affordable but bland skill set, one that probably won’t have playoff hopefuls beating down the A’s door for him leading up to the deadline.

Longer-Term Assets

Sonny Gray, SP | Salary: $3.575MM in 2017; arbitration eligible through 2019

As the crown jewel of Oakland’s trade candidates, Gray has frequently graced MLBTR’s pages in recent weeks and will continue to be a popular name on this site as the deadline nears. The likelihood is that the A’s will soon say goodbye to the 27-year-old Gray, who has put a rough, injury-laden 2016 behind him to post a 4.00 ERA (3.58 FIP) with 8.47 K/9 and 2.86 BB/9 through 78 2/3 innings. Gray’s strikeout and walk numbers are the best they’ve been since his outstanding debut in 2013, and he has complemented those figures with career-best chase, contact and swinging-strike rates (11.5 percent) – not to mention a 55.3 percent ground-ball mark. Add all of that to Gray’s affordable team control, and it’s clear someone is going to pay a high price for him. In case you missed it, MLBTR’s Steve Adams deftly laid out plausible fits for Gray on June 30.

Khris Davis, LF/DH | Salary: $5MM in 2017; arbitration eligible through 2019

Contrary to Gray, there’s no talk of Davis going anywhere. Additionally, the righty-swinger has made it clear that he’d like to be an Athletic for the long haul. The Beane-led franchise has made surprising deals in the past, though, and bear in mind that Davis is a soon-to-be 30-year-old whose price tag will continue to rise in the arbitration process. There’s an outside chance those factors could make him a candidate to switch teams soon, as the A’s don’t look close to contention and aren’t exactly big spenders. Arbitration rewards players who hit homers, drive in runs and accrue PAs – all things Davis has done since he joined the A’s prior to last year. The former Brewer has already smashed 24 dingers and racked up 60 RBI in 364 PAs this year, giving him a shot at his second straight 40-HR, 100-RBI season, and his overall line (.246/.335/.517) is terrific. An on-the-block Davis would probably garner a fair amount of attention, but whether the A’s would be receptive to giving him up is unknown.

Sean Doolittle, RP | Salary: $2.6MM in 2017; $4.35MM in 2018; club options with $500K buyouts in 2019 ($6MM) and 2020 ($6.5MM)

Shoulder issues have hampered Doolittle in recent seasons, but there’s no doubt he’s among the game’s most formidable left-handed relievers when he’s able to take the mound. While Doolittle has only eaten 19 1/3 innings this season, the 30-year-old has done plenty with them, having put up a 3.72 ERA (2.58 FIP) with all-world strikeout and walk rates (13.03 K/9 and .93 BB/9). Among relievers who have thrown at least 10 innings – a very small sample, granted – Doolittle ranks third in K/BB ratio. He has also induced infield pop-ups on a ridiculous 23.8 percent of batted balls, thereby offsetting a low grounder rate (35.7 percent). Doolittle’s past arm troubles have likely dented his trade value somewhat, but his effective pitching/palatable contract combination should warrant a quality return if the A’s decide to go in another direction.

Liam Hendriks, RP | Salary: $1.1MM in 2017; arbitration eligible through 2019

Hendriks prevented runs with aplomb as a Blue Jay and Athletic from 2015-16, though his ERA has spiked from 3.34 over that 129 1/3-inning period to 5.40 across 36 2/3 frames this year. If you look beyond that, though, there’s a desirable, hard-throwing reliever here. Like Doolittle, the 28-year-old Hendriks has posted a superb K/9 (12.03, with a playable 3.44 BB/9), adding a career-best swinging-strike mark (12.8 percent) and a decent grounder rate (45.5 percent). Hendriks’ .351 batting average on balls in play, 65.2 percent strand rate and 13.9 percent homer-to-fly ball rate are largely to blame for his bloated ERA, which shouldn’t necessarily be a deterrent to all playoff contenders in search of bullpen help. The righty has usually been a capable option against both same- and opposite-handed hitters, which, combined with his low salary and team control, ought to have him on clubs’ radars.

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