With few controllable starters available at the non-waiver trade deadline, teams have been reaching out to the Braves to gauge the availability of right-hander Julio Teheran, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman. The Astros are one of multiple teams that has inquired, Heyman notes, and the Braves haven’t completely ruled out moving him prior to the deadline.
David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution adds more context to the story, noting that the Braves privately discussed the possibility of shopping Teheran this offseason, but were only going to put him on the market if they were able to land an arm such as Chris Sale, Chris Archer or Jose Quintana to take Teheran’s spot in the rotation. Atlanta was never able to pull off a trade for a front-line starter, and thus Teheran was retained to make the first start in the history of SunTrust Park.
That new park, of course, may have adversely impacted Teheran’s trade value. Atlanta’s new home has proven to be exceptionally hitter-friendly, and Teheran has been torched for a 7.58 ERA there, as compared to a 2.88 mark on the road. Of the 20 homers he’s yielded this year, 13 have come at home, despite the fact that he’s pitched four more innings on the road.
Attributing his struggles solely to the home park isn’t prudent, though, as Teheran has a 4.51 FIP and 4.49 xFIP away from SunTrust park, suggesting that much of that road split is a mirage. He’s seen his strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates all trend in the wrong direction this year, both at home and on the road. Teheran’s velocity has fallen a couple of miles per in recent years as well, and he’s currently sporting his worst swinging-strike and chase rates since 2012.
That said, it’s hard not to find Teheran’s contract highly appealing. He’s earning $6.3MM this season and is guaranteed $8MM in 2018 plus $11MM in 2019. The deal also carries a $12MM club option ($1MM buyout) for the 2020 season. All told, he’s guaranteed just $22.995MM through the end of the 2019 campaign (including the remainder of this year’s salary) and can be controlled through 2020 for $33.995MM. Even if Teheran is more of mid-rotation workhorse than a top-of-the-rotation arm, that’s a highly reasonable rate for a pitcher that has made at least 30 starts in each of the past four seasons with solid run-prevention numbers.
Oh please do it.
Oh I hope so!!!
My fantasy team would very much benefit from getting Teherán out of SunTrust. He’s been so awful at home since moving to that park, but still has been almost the exact same dominant pitcher on the road.
He would look great in a Brewers uniform.
But even better in a cubs uniform
Yeah to screw up the cubs chances of making the playoffs even more!
Trade him while his value is down!
That’s exactly why the Braves shouldn’t trade him. What else are we going to get that we would need?
He would get destroyed in the AL East
Why? The Sox rotation is not a place of need. I also agree with Mr. Silver.
Boston went through that. The Braves wanted Moncada or Benentendi and another top player.
Please no not Boston. Who in there current rotation is he better then besides Fister who won’t be there when Erod comes back after the all star break.
He might be lousy, but he’s lousy for cheap so that makes up for it.
“That said, it’s hard not to find appeal in Teheran’s contract.”
I’m sure Jeremy Hellickson is prospect cheaper and the Phillies will pay Hellickson’s salary.
If I had to pick between a couple of lousy starters, I suppose Hellickson is the more appealing lousy starter.
Reminds me of the old joke about the restaurant where the food is bad and portions are too small.
Hilarious – I have both these chumps on my fantasy team and I can’t trade them for the life of me…
I moved hellickson around May 1 when he looked great, lucky me
Julio has far more potential, though.
Oh no not this again.
It’s that time of year, when everybody with a pulse might be on the move.
It’s July, that’s Teheran trade rumors time.
Yes. We need him
Honestly, hes been awful, but hes pitching in a really small park with a really bad defense behind him other than Inciarte.
Put him in a pitchers environment with a half decent defense and you’ll probably see more 2016 Teheran than 2017 Teheran.
And honestly, no one should give up top 50ish prospects for him.
He wasn’t very good in turner field 2 years ago
He had one mediocre year (not even terrible) boxed in between 3 allstar caliber seasons..
He is not an Ace like the Braves keeping thinking he is
Only against the Mets
who thinks he’s an Ace? not whoever proposed his contract.
You be hard pressed at this point finding a sane braves fan who still thinks he’s an ace.
Once again, it’s not that he’s an “ace” but he’s Atlanta’s ace. For them to unload him, they would require a haul to move him.
I don’t understand why so many people have a problem understanding this concept.
It’s like my house. It’s not for sale, but if you give me enough, you can have it.
Not a top 50 prospect? This is absurd. He is having a down year, but, he is a very good pitcher with a career 3.57, two all star games. He may not be Chris Sale, but he is an above average number 2 starter and that will definitely cost a top 20 prospect a ML starter and probably 1-2 other pieces.
“just crazy” – irony
Im a big Braves and Julio fan but I dont think you understand top prospect value. A top 20 kid is much different than a top 50.
Julio has shown who he is, a 2/3 and great guy with a great contract. But if we can get a top 20 spec just take another low ball lotto ticket toolsy kid or 2 and pull that trigger.
You are delusional if you think he doesn’t bring multiple top 50 prospects! He is 26 years old! He is having a marriage slump… there are hormonal changes and stress that accompany the first year of marriage! If she is half as crazy as she is beautiful then kid had his hands full. His numbers will normalize towards his career avgs… there is no hurry to trading him before 2019. He isn’t an ace but when colon and dickey command 10-15 million and greinke demands the GDP of a medium size nation there is a ton of excess value. He is at least a 3rd game postseason starter, and could beat most teams #2. Why trade him when we are postseason bound next year. It’ll take top offensive dollar to get him. It will take an overpay or the FO will be happy to go into the postseason with Newk Teheran and Folty next year.
Dookie Howser, MD
This. Is. Amazing.
Amazing isn’t quite the word that came to mind but wow.
I used the same excuse at work that I was in a marriage slump. My boss asked what I meant, so I explained all the hormonal changes, and how I have to keep my wife in line because she’s beautiful.
Btw, any of you know places that are hiring?
None that will listen to you attempt to explain the theoretical pathophysiology behind “marriage syndrome” when you should be flipping burgers 😉 jk bro but at a quick glance a few numbers that pop out theorize 50-80% of the population experience 15-30 lb weight fluctuations towards the wrong way during the first few years of marriage. Lower testosterone, more stress, more distractions= more fat less muscle… decreased physical performance. Fan graphs needs to crunch numbers and report back haha
I think his 11 month old baby is more likely the culprit. I bet the baby is keeping him up all night. He should start staying in a hotel the night before his home starts.
Keep him please.
Now I understand why people here think Atlanta fans are idiots.
Should have traded him last year
We dont know what was being offered though. If you could tell me Ill come to a conclusion, maybe the same as you even. But a general statement like that for a good, young, cheap pitcher is without basis.
Coppy is smart! It depends on what the return might be as to if the Braves trade him or not!
“It depends on what the return might be as to if the Braves trade him or not!”
You don’t say!?
We all know Coppy doesn’t trade away assets for nothing special (except the trade that sent A. Wood and peraza away for hector olivera..man I’m still mad about that) so if Teheran gets traded it will be for good close prospects. I don’t think he should be traded because the thing we need most is to get rid of dickey and Garcia and bring up or trade for better pitchers as our young guys come up. Teheran isn’t an ace by any means and he is very inconsistent but we definitely shouldn’t trade him now that his value is at pretty much his lowest its ever been. We could package him with a pitching prospect (we have a lot of those if no one knew) for a sonny gray but I don’t think that could happen.
The arms we brought in haven’t developed like we hoped and starting pitching is at a premium. If the Braves want to really compete in the next 4 years they can’t afford to move him.
You don’t pay attention to A or AA ball then.
They have 3 guys in BA’s top 50 that are at least AA or higher. There’s a 4th ranked 75. They certainly have arms that should be available in the next 4 years.
Do you know how many top 100 pitching prospects flame out?
Ya its called attrition. Its why Coppy has monopolized amateur pitching, to try to go beyond covering the odds.
Lets just hope they dont become the Mets. If injuries weren’t real that rotation would have given me nightmares for a decade.
Coppy stressed keeping them coming in waves though so there are always MiLB options. The Mets on the other hand had a plethora at once, all get hurt, and their minors are barren for quality SP specs.
We don’t teach everyone to throw a 91 MPH slider so I think our pitching should hold up a little better than the Mets.
There’s a good chance the Braves could be starting 2018 with Folty, Nukem, Soroka and Sims in the rotation, with Allard, Wright and Gohara right behind them.
Soroka and Allard both 19 years old with one AA season after this year. Won’t be starting in 2018 rotation. Both very good though and on their way.
You do realize that both Allard and Soroka skipped High A ball and yet are among the best pitchers in all of AA at only 19 years of age? I certainly don’t know the Braves plans for them, but often prospects who have been as effective as they have been are often promoted to the next level late in the season. It is definitely within the realm of possibility that at least one, if not both of them see significant time in the majors next season. Many pitchers who have performed FAR worse than they have still made it to the majors the following year (some even out of spring training). I’d be fairly shocked if they didn’t at least get a few starts in 2018.
Perhaps you meant starting out the season (out of spring training, which I think is doubtful), but I interpreted your comments as not being a starting pitcher at the big league level any in 2018. Maybe I just misinterpreted what you meant.
Considering Soroka’s advanced feel for pitching I think he will be competing for a rotation spot in spring training next year, though like Albies, I think the braves will take his emotional maturity into consideration before moving him up, and that’s something none of us can speculate on based on stats. I think Allard has a little more to learn at this point but Soroka doesn’t have much more to prove. The difference between the level of competition between AA and AAA ins’t that big so I think both of them will be in the rotation by the end of 2018 if management feels they are mature enough to handle it.
I do realize everything you said and do mean they won’t start in 2018 rotation. Saw both pitch this year and they are good. Maybe end of next year in MLB rotation.
My bet is on gohara jumping both soroka and allard and making it up on his 22nd bday next year…
Not impossible to imagine but Gohara moving past them but he has already surpassed his previous career high in innings this year with only 72.2 and scouts think his change is still a developing pitch. I think Soroka will be the first to make it to the bigs.
That’s a wild way to spell Newcomb
The braves need established pitching period the farm is deep enough where they can throw in a couple of guys to get it done as long as acuna stays then they can trade off some guys
Dookie Howser, MD
They tried the established arms plan this year with Dickey and Colon…
not this again…
Deja vu all over again. Ahhh
This would be the definition of selling low. Hector Olivera trade, you may have company!
Trade him to Houston for Fisher and Moron plus a low level arm
It will soften the blow when the Braves go after Gray or Archer and have to give up an Allard, Sims , Peterson type on return.
The Braves have Motte, Markakis, Phillips and Garcia to trade to help regain any prospect lose for a front line starter. The Braves aren’t seriously competing till 2019
But a rotation of
Looks pretty scary
Did you say Jason Motte as a trade chip?
Motte has a 3.76 ERA and has 19 Ks in 26 innings he would be a solid bullpen piece
Yeah his lowest era in 4 years. No team is trading anything of value to add Motte
Last season the Braves got Travis Demeritte, Michael Mader, Anfernee Seymour, Akeel Morris, Kade Scivicque, Dylan Moore, Matt Foley, Caleb Dirks and Phil Pfeiffer for Erick Aybar, Hunter Cervanka, Dario Alvarez, Jeff Francoeur, Kelly Johnson, Dian Toscano, Bud Norris and Lucas Harrel.
Motte is definitely a trade chip.
He’s had an era under 4.00 one of the last 3 years and it was 3.91 two years ago. He’s 35 and thrown a total of 40 innings the last season and a half. There are FA relievers who are better than him teams can go sign before giving up value to trade for him
Oh and not to mention hurt 3 of the last 4 years
Teams in the playoff hunt aren’t that concerned with past results or signing FA’s and stashing them at AAA until they prove they are ready for the bigs again. They want a guy who is ready to go right now, and teams in desperate need of pitching will give up an interesting prospect or two for a guy who can deepen their bullpen right away. We aren’t talking about a Chapman level of return here. Nobody expects Motte to bring back a top 100 prospect, but he is a trade chip for sure.
And would a playoff contending team prefer to bring out a veteran Motte who is having a good year and had success before into a high leverage situation, or some FA they just signed who was released or hasn’t thrown all year?
There is probably a good reason a RP is still a FA and not playing because I assure you any good ones would be given a try. There are a lot if teams desperate for reliable RP help, even good teams *cough cough Nats*
If Motte was released today he wouldn’t make it through many teams before being claimed, while your so called better than him RPs are still FAs.
It happens every year and why MLB trade deadline is so fun. Contenders are willing to overpay for someone they can trust in the playoffs ALA Jason Motte
Injury history can be used to evaluate a long term deal but are not a good barometer for short term success
Dookie Howser, MD
I’m more perplexed by Markakis
I know saying that Markakis recouping value lost for trading for Archer is silly, but lets hold off a little on ripping on Kakes. When ATL signed him they had no ready minor league OFs and signed him for 4yrs/44mil (11/yr). They haven’t gotten the power they were hoping for but his first 2 years in ATL were just under 2 WAR each year.
They guy they replaced (Heyward) netted them Swanson and Inciarte, and signed a deal for 8yrs/184mil (23/yr) and had 1.6 WAR his first year and is on pace for 3 WAR this year. Kakes defense brings his down compared to J-Heys propping his WAR but if you asked the Braves if they regret signing Nick you would get a no.
That being said they do have some guys getting close to ready now and Markakis will probably end up around 1-2 WAR again this year. I don’t know if they can move him this deadline, but if they can move him now or in the winter overall I would call his signing a success considering what subpar players make in salary, and what it would have cost to retain their other option in Heyward (minus Inciarte & Swanson too).
Also Markakis…we all know he’s worth a ton!
“Trade him to Houston for Fisher”
TB already said Archer is staying put. And if you think Allard, Sims, and Jace will get Archer I want you to cover your eyes. More like Allard or Soroka or Albies; Wright or Gohara or Anderson; plus like 2 of Wentz, Muller, Demeritte, Bryse Wilson, Touki, Severino, Pache, Riley, Waters, Weigel. And Im a Braves fan who also thinks we shouldn’t do it even though I love Archer.
I think Acuna and Maitan are the only untouchables.
That is actually about on the money for Archer.. I think Allard, Anderson, Wilson and Muller would be a fair deal for Archer.. (since he is under control and fairly cheap) but add Wright to the list of untouchables.. he should move fast, possible he is in ATL next summer..
Would be a good starting group next year.
I dont see Wright in ATL next year unless its to get his feet wet out of the pen, and you wouldn’t start his clock doing that if you think he is untouchable.
Medlen is an awesome guy and had 2 very unfortunate TJs, but he has been getting shelled in AA/AAA. He just doesn’t have it any more. Considering his best pitch was that filthy changeup, without velocity its effectiveness is negated. Too bad though loved Bulldog Meds.
Prob. Right on Medlen, that’s why I put the FA there as well.. As far as Wright, he will be close to 23yrs old, is an advanced college pitcher that will need to get some MLB innings before the Braves make a push in 2019.. I believe Teheran will only be traded for a young hitter or just kept as a 3/4 starter..
no way i would give up that much for archer ….. maybe sale but archer isnt that great i mean he is a number 1 on the rays but i dont see him as a true number 1 and hea getting older couple years he will be 30 … i wouldnt trade allard or anderson .. the guy i would go get is verlander less prospect’s and insted of going crazy in free agency this offseason just get the tigers to eat a little bit of his huge contract . I would actually like to see a julio verlander deal with maybe fried or gohara thrown in there that would give us a rotation of verlander ,folty, newcomb,soroka or allard and maybe bring back dickey until wright or allard is ready
Verlander is 34 and his numbers are not good.. Archer is young controllable and affordable. He averages over a K an inning and is a true ACE! Andersen though good was drafted and signed so we could get Wentz, Muller and the rest of last years good draft. Very expendable.. I say trade for Archer and keep Teheran! With Folty and Newcomb and the rest of the Braves pitching prospects they will have not only a very talented rotation, they will have plenty of depth in the minors!
Verlanders numbers are better than archers hes still hitting 97mph and is a bulldog the reason i would go after him. Is he would cost less prospects i like archer dont get me wrong but hes not worth the prospects tampa would demand considering atlanta isnt going to go crazy in free agency i cant see shipping a ton of prospects for archer maybe if archer was 24 or 25 but hes pushing 30 himself and is a smaller guy i dont see pitching this well when hes 32 33 range
No matter what they do i want us to keep allard, soroka , wright,acuna, maitan,and albies
Looking at the numbers you can expect very similar seasons from the 2.. we can agree to disagree on who is better now (obviously Verlander has a longer track record and the better career to this point) I would prefer the braves not get a guy the will be 36/37/38 on a huge contract, when a large amount of hitters come available in free agency. I would give up Allard, he had, I believe, a micro fracture in his back. Which puts a huge unknown in his ability to stay healthy as he gets older and puts more stress on his back..Archer would provide an affordable Ace for the Braves, keeping Teheran will provide a very good #3, with Folty, Newcomb and the rest of the pitching prospects they have, losing a few now is, I believe, a smart play..
Twins should be on him!
For the last 4 or 5 years I’ve been saying that Pittsburgh needs to get this guy. Sign him to a long term deal. Let Uncle Ray work with him for a few months. He would be an instant ace.
He is a flyball pitcher. If Pitts outfield can cover a lot of ground then it would be an instant improvement over Kemp/Markakis in the outfield (Inciarte does a lot of running already lol).
Meadows for Julio straight up!
Julio and Kemp/kakis for Cutch and a throw in SP.
(btw not serious in any fashion.)
Unrelated but it’s absolutely hilarious that this guy gave up back to back homers to Luke Maile and Marcus Stroman.
James Shields gave up a home run to Bartolo Colon. I think Teheran can live with Maile and Stroman.
Remember in the off-season how he was being called a top flight ace? Reality hit hard.
I want to see Chris archer in Atlanta uni!
Man, where’s that Braves fan that used to post these amazing trade proposals, usually involving Teheran, and including six or seven other teams? His posts were pure beautiful unhinged poetry. I miss that guy and his 12 paragraphs of absolute jawdropping brilliance.
I found one of his from last year, quoted here in its entirety:
“The least the Braves will take for Julio Teheran fresh off a 1-hit CG shutout is Swihart (MLB Ready), Prospect#1, Yoan Moncada and either prospect#2 or #3, Andrew Benintendi or Rafael Devers. On Arodys Vizcaino #6 in all MLB fastball, the Braves will want at least a top5 prospect, or two 6-10 prospects So that would be Espinoza or Kopech or two of Johnson, Travis, Basabe, Marrero or Chavis. ”
So here’s this guy’s trade scenario from last season:
Teheran for Swihart, Moncada, Benintendi (or Devers)
Then there’s this trade to occur concurrently:
Arodys Vizcaino for Espinoza or Kopech along with two of Brian Johnson, Basabe, Marrero and Chavis.
Man, I miss that guy.
haha. why not just trade Julio for Trout and have the Angels eat half the salary? 🙂
Come to Boston!!
Teheran would get at least 1 top 100 prospect, and two project pieces. The thing that’s messed Teheran up is McDowell messing with him a few yrs ago. Now he’s trying to figure out what works for him again now that McDowell is gone.
Coppy will trade anyone not named Freddie, he’s a bit of a loose cannon that way. So yea, Teheran is available, and yes Coppy could get a nice package for him.
On the MLB roster ya, all is fair game except maybe Swanson and Newcomb but essentially I agree. In the minors though I think there are a few untouchables being Acuna and Maitan (maybe Ozzie too).
Perfect example of why Julio Teheran should have been traded last season on a rebuilding team because now they are selling him low.
Teheran,and gohara for verlander and the tigers eat a little money . The one player id love to see in atlanta would be donaldson id trade maitan straight up if i knew we had a decent chance of getting him to sign and extension
I like Donaldson too, but he is getting old fast…and he’s got one foot in the douche canoe – probably got that from being down on the Plains at Auburn.
um no thanks?
The Braves won’t trade him. Someone tried to tell me that he’s every bit as good as Jose Quintana. Haha.
You know that they had almost identical seasons last year.. Teheran is not an Ace and Quintana is not an Ace. They are #3’s. And yes I am a BRAVES fan..
Trade with Yanks Adams,Teheran,Pache,Johnson, and Suzuki for Sanchez,Fowler,Severino and Acevedo. Yankees can win now
Gary… I’m a huge braves fan, and I would love for this trade to happen. But there is not a chance in this world that this hypothetical trade would happen. lol They would downgrade with Teheran vs Severino, horrible downgrade with Sanchez and Suzuki.. which remember Sanchez is super young and legit. Then you suggest they trade two of their top 12 prospects for basically adams… cause they don’t need johnson that bad and although Pache has huge upside, he’s only in A ball………
Braves need to trade Braxton Davidson now while he’s still rated top 30 in their organization… The kid has not had a good year in pro baseball yet and is gaining rough weight. Package him in a deal to “sweeten” it a little.
He should go to a hard park to hit homeruns like Hoffmann stadium.