The question isn’t a new one. It has long been observed that three key Royals players — center fielder Lorenzo Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and third baseman Mike Moustakas — would all reach the open market after the 2017 season. Indeed, it seemed at times that the club would get out ahead of the pending departure by dealing one or more of those players, as it did with closer Wade Davis over the winter, though that never came to pass.
With the Kansas City club all but mathematically eliminated from the postseason, we’re fast approaching the point where the question will no longer be hypothetical. It’s clear that all three players are worthy of receiving and declining qualifying offers, potentially setting the stage for the organization to pick up a nice haul of draft picks as compensation if they depart. Barring a stunning development — the QO decision period will at least provide a window — none will re-up with the Royals before reaching the open market.
While the expectation long has been that the Royals would require some transition period, it’s tough to guess from the outside just what that might look like. The organization ran a payroll of over $140MM this year and has made clear it can’t do so again. But it already has more than $100MM committed for 2018, with a variety of veteran players — many controlled for the short-term, but a few on longer-term deals — still on the books. Some of those contracts have some value; others don’t. But the mix will make it difficult for the Royals to embark upon a complete and immediate tear-down.
So, is there still some possibility that Cain, Hosmer, and/or Moustakas could find themselves back in a familiar place next year and beyond? It isn’t as if the club has obvious replacements lined up for the trio. And all have indicated they would like to return, if that proves possible.
Obviously, the biggest barrier is cost. While K.C. might conceivably welcome back veteran shortstop Alcides Escobar, he likely won’t cost all that much given his ongoing struggles at the plate. The three players under consideration here, though, will surely command over $10MM annually over lengthy terms.
Cain might be the best of this group and will likely require the lowest total guarantee, mostly because he’s already 31 years old — which will also add to the Royals’ trepidation in paying to keep him. Hosmer has yet to turn 28 and is coming off of his best season in the majors, though he’ll probably be the most expensive and is probably also the easiest of this group to replace (given the glut of older power hitters on the market). Moustakas, 29, might offer something of a middle ground between the others and did just set the organizational record with his 37th dinger, though he won’t be cheap and remains an iffy performer in the on-base department.
So, how do you see this playing out? (Link for app users.)
If I’m one of their free agents, I’m bolting unless they overpay. It’s looking like there is going to be a lot of losing baseball in the near and long term future in KC
They should have done a complete tear down. Could have replenished a good amount in their farm system but got caught up in the delousion that being within shouting distance of the AL wild card makes you a contender
Agreed. They wanted one last run and will pay for it in the long term. Absolutely cant let all three walk like they have in a losing year
They’ll get draft picks if QO’s are made. Not a complete loss.
The picks are now 3rd round. Better than nothing, but far from the post-1st round “sandwich picks” teams formerly received when they lost FAs. The compensation pick is now more of a lottery ticket and less of a high-value compensation.
It’s true that we’ve seen stars who were late-draft picks, and “can’t-miss” high picks who missed badly. Nothing in the draft is certain. But the difference between the old and new CBA means a difference of at least 60 more players picked before comp picks, compared to previously. That is a far less attractive comp for losing a player to FA.
If the team losing the player received revenue sharing in the previous season and the free agent signed a deal at least $50MM in guaranteed money, the team will receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the draft.
Royals would get 3 after the 1st round if all 3 sogn for $50 mil or more
Delusion? They had the 2nd WC spot at the deadline. To say they should’ve sold is just to be blinded by hindsight bias. You’d have justifiably roasted them on July 31 if they sold off a team 7 games over .500 for marginal prospects, which is what rental position players got this season
The 2nd AL wild card was occupied by many teams all season in an absolute cluster. To say that all of them are contenders is just wrong. JD martinez got 3 really young SS so thats not a bad return for a rental. Sell off 5 guys and thats at least 10 lottery ticket prospects you have instead of losing them in free agency. Besides the Wade Davis trade was awful to begin with and if they really planned on contending they wouldn’t have made that awful trade
In hindsight yes they should have. And arguably even at the time because even if they had held onto the second Wild Card spot they likely wouldn’t have made it far in the playoffs. But they had the Wild Card spot at the deadline and decided they wanted to give it one more shot. I don’t necessarily fault them for that, even if it did set them back a couple years after this.
Wow making sense for a change!
hurrrr da durrrr
*fart noises*
The only guy out of these three I can see them bringing back is Hosmer, but it’s probably only about 25%.
Why? He might not have much of a market out there for a huge deal since nobody really needs a first baseman, and the teams that do aren’t going to break the bank for one with so many 1st basemen available.
Cain is gone, he’s still angry about not getting a longer extension a few years ago, and I predict the Angels will fork over a nice sum to get Moose back to California to keep Trout happy.
The only guy I think they’ll actually resign who is a FA is Escobar. Ned Yost never benches him and they just made a point to say Raul Mondesi Jr might play CF next year. With no SS in the system outside of replacement-level Ramon Torres, that almost guarantees Escobar is back in KC. Plus he’ll be super cheap because nobody else is going to give a SS who spent most of the season with the worst OPS in baseball a contract.
Royals don’t need to sign Escobar. Put Mondesi at SS, his natural position. They still have Billy Burns that can play CF, and will provide the speed at the top of the lineup. Let Hunter Dozier audition for the 3B gig after Moose walks. He has solid contact skills and doubles power, but may hit <20 HR. First will be the hardest to fill. A couple years ago Ryan O'Hearn looked like he could be the answer, however he hasn't done a whole lot.
couldn’t the mondesi in center comment be more indicative of the fact they won’t pursue cain? could slice it both ways , really.
Out of those three, maybe Hosmer, because no one wants to pay 1B anymore. I mean, really.. whos the market for 1B? No one needs him, except maybe the Royals.
Moose is gonna leave, and Cain is probably the easiest call of them all.
Mariners and Yankees. M’s last good 1B was John Olerud and I don’t think Bird has established complete confidence. Mets, Rockies, Rangers, and Giants have questions there as well. Indiana Carlos Santana is also a free after this season.
Angels too.
Yankees are high on Bird,
M’s make sense if they want to pay him
GIants have Belt
Rangers have Gallo/Guzman
Rockies have Desmond/ could resign Reynolds for cheap
Desmond is not going to be a 1B. At least not the primary one. He will be the LF next year. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think the Rox will be signing Hosmer by any means, but I think Ryan McMahon has a better chance of being 1B than Desmond.
There’s been a bunch of speculation that SF would trade Belt. One report even going so far as to say that Bochy would “like to see a change in that position”.
Belt had to be benched before he would make adjustments to his swing that the coaching staff had been asking him to do.
I think if SF trade him he will hit .300 and 40 home runs for the new team because that always seems to happen when a player leaves SF. They start hitting better.
the point is they shouldn’t be spending 100M on a 1B
Like Panda? What notable player has left SF lately and played well?
Lincecum, Romo, Melancon, Duffy. Easy.
Lincecum, Romo, Melencon, Duffy. Easy.
How about Duvall? Nunez is also hitting a bunch of home runs suddenly in Boston.
Probably has nothing to do with the contrast in ballparks.
Exactly, pd14athletics, SF has one of the worst hitters parks in baseball. Also Nunez doesn’t really count, he spent a year with SF and did pretty well while he was in SF, the only reason his HR total went up that quick was because of Fenway.
There has been plenty of speculation SF might try to move on from Brandon Belt and cash in on him while he is one of the better 1B options around. However, a big part of that has to do with the fact that Buster Posey is going to continue to transition to 1B more and more over the next few years. Posey’s time as a full-time catcher are over. By the time 2019 rolls around, it’s quite likely that he isn’t even the team’s primary backstop anymore, especially if they move Belt.
I don’t see the Giants signing hosmer unless someone takes belts contract or he moves to lf, though they said they were looking to upgrade OF offense and defense so that probably isn’t a possibility since belt is+ def @1st but flat or – in the OF
Come on Jeff. How do you not make a poll out of this ?
Poll has been there but I did neglect to include a link for folks accessing via the app. It’s there now; sorry for the wait.
Great question Jeff! You have some wonderful opinions. I am going to think about this question overnight tonight and respond to the poll tomorrow, OK?
They either Sign Hosmer or both Moose and Cain. I say either MO teams will be and any team will be after Hosmer. Moose goes to Angels.
If I’m the Royals, I’d sign a couple them to three year contracts. Then if they suck by July 31, trade them for minor leaguers.
If they suck, why would a team be willing to trade minor – leaguers for them?
The contracts they get this offseason won’t make them look appealing as trade chips, especially if they suck.
Hosmer will sign with the redsox
I could see them being interested, since Moreland is a free agent after the season, but I feel they’ll try and pursue a contract with Moreland first, before looking into other options.
Because the players are good players and the Royals need prospects.
Bold prediction: Royals get the #1 overall pick in the 2019 draft
I wouldn’t mind that
Yes, because nothing is more fun than watching a team suck all year for the chance to draft a Mark Appel.
Don’t forget, they could also get the next Matt Bush.
KC should have a high pick in 2019, but to pick first they will have to out-lose the 2018 Tigers. Good luck with that….
They will sign hosmer.
I see the 2018 Royals in one of two ways….
They make a serious bid to retain Cain & Moose, along with resigning Escobar, Minor (as the new closer), and Moylan, letting Hosmer, Vargas, and Cahill walk, although both receive QOs. The starting team then looks like Gordon–LF, Cain–CF, Soler–RF, Moose–3B, Escobar–SS, Whit–1B, O’Hearn/Moss–1B, Bonifacio/Dozier/Moss–DH, with a bench of Dozier, Orlando, Butera, Torres/Mondesi. Rotation: Duffy, Junis, Kennedy, Hammel, Cahill/Gaviglio, with Herrera and Soria setting up Minor, along with Alexander, Moylan, Buchter, Mauer, and McCarthy, etc.
The other scenario: They retain Escobar, Minor, and Vargas, and Moose, Hoz, and Cain walk. We then look like this: Gordon–LF, Starling–CF, Soler–RF, Dozier–3B, Esky–SS, Whit–2B, O’Hearn/Moss–1B, Bonifacio/Moss–DH, with a bench of Mondesi, Torres, Orlando, Butera. Rotation of Vargas, Duffy, Junis, Hammel, Kennedy, with Soria, Herrera, Moylan, McCarthy, Alexander, Buchter, Mauer, and Minor and company.
For me, the wild card is Mondesi. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him traded. Herrera is a possibility for a trade, also, although I think that would be foolish.
I truly do not see all of the big 4 (Cain, Moose, Hoz, Vargas) walking. My gut says Moose stays, and I think Cain would prefer to stay with Salvy if it makes any sense, financially.
Of course, I could be 100% wrong on all of this…but I guarantee I’ll still be bleeding Royal blue.
I think the Indians inconsistency the first half of the season suckered KC into keeping all of their potential FA’s. If the Tribe had been playing in June and July like they’re playing now (41-11 since August 1), maybe the Royals would have considered selling.
This may not be the most popular idea, but I’d seriously think about dumping the extra wildcard slot. A bunch of teams who would be much better off looking towards the future and trading assets hang around hoping to sneak in. And the one game wild-card playoffs are absurd.
Royals won 2 pennants and 1 WS came very close to 2 WS
So If you’re a Royals fan u have nothing to complain about the franchise went for it
Hosmer has the most value at the plate in the long term, and he’s a great character. I’d go with him.
All three will be gone already spent way too much money this year and are looking for the payroll decrease