While Shohei Otani rightly draws the majority of headlines when it comes to international free agents potentially making the jump to Major League Baseball, there’s another interesting righty that could try to transition from Nippon Professional Baseball star to MLB starter. Right-hander Miles Mikolas is now a free agent after wrapping up a successful three-year stint with the Yomiuri Giants, and MLBTR has learned that he is interested in making his way back to the big leagues.
Mikolas’s name probably rings a bell with Padres and Rangers fans, but it’s been a while since he has factored into the discussion on this side of the Pacific. After failing to find his footing in parts of three seasons in the majors, Mikolas has spent the past three campaigns as one of the best starters in Japan.
Over 91 1/3 MLB innings from 2012-14, Mikolas managed only a 5.32 ERA with pedestrian peripheral marks: 6.1 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 along with a middle-of-the-road 44 percent ground-ball rate as a big leaguer. He’d shown impeccable control early in his pro career, but his walk rates spiked as he reached the upper levels of the game.
Mikolas began reversing that trend in 2014 — the same year he attempted to work from the rotation for the first time. While he struggled through 10 MLB starts, he also worked to a 3.22 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against just 0.6 BB/9 in his 44 2/3 Triple-A frames that year.
That performance caught some attention overseas, as Yomiuri purchased the rights to Mikolas from the Rangers in the 2014-15 offseason. The move allowed the Texas organization to clear some space on its 40-man roster and gave the righty a chance to earn more money while functioning as a starter overseas.
Mikolas impressed enough in his first campaign in Japan that the Giants re-signed him to a fairly notable two-year, $5MM contract. While that agreement looks modest by MLB standards, it’s a relatively sizable commitment overseas and certainly a life-changing figure for a pitcher who hadn’t established himself in the majors as he headed into his age-26 season.
Now 29 years of age (30 next August), Mikolas has posted video-game numbers over the life of his three-year tenure in Japan. He carries a 2.18 ERA through 424 1/3 innings with Yomiuri, and he really put things together in a 2017 season in which he spun 188 frames of 2.25 ERA ball over 27 starts. He not only struck out a batter per inning but also dropped his walk rate to 1.1 BB/9.
It isn’t entirely clear at this point just what kind of offers Mikolas might receive, but he should generate interest and could well command a 40-man roster spot. We’ve seen guaranteed money go to other pitchers who rejuvenated their careers in Japan. Colby Lewis, for instance, signed for $5MM over two years back in 2010. More recently, reliever Tony Barnette took home a $3.5MM promise over two seasons. Both of those pitchers landed with the Rangers, who along with the Padres are not only prior employers of Mikolas, but also figure to be among the numerous teams that will be looking to add rotation candidates this winter.
Mikolas will not be the only former big leaguer on the radar for a possible return. Reliever Chris Martin has also thrived in Japan, allowing just 11 earned runs on 46 hits over 88 1/3 innings across the past two seasons while carrying a 91-to-13 K/BB ratio. That translates to a 1.08 ERA in his two seasons with the Nippon Ham Fighters, and the fact that he’s been a teammate of Otani for two years means that big league scouts have had plenty of chances to determine whether the former Yankees/Rockies reliever can plausibly sustain some of that success in the Majors in what would be his age-32 season. Martin has just a 6.19 ERA in 36 1/3 MLB innings, but he had a solid 3.48 ERA with 9.2 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 in 106 Triple-A innings before landing in NPB.
Beyond that duo, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has already reported that the Cardinals have interest in Orix Buffaloes closer Yoshihisa Hirano, who is also a free agent this year and can explore MLB opportunities without needing to go through NPB’s posting system. Even beyond Otani — whose pursuit has the potential to surpass the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes in attention and drama — it’ll be an interesting winter to watch trans-Pacific player movement.
Realistically, could the Red Sox get Otani? Just curious
Yes, any team could “realistically” get him.
Aside from teams like the Brooklyn Dodgers, who are no longer realistic in existence.
Montreal Expos? California Angels? Tampa Bay Devil Rays?
Cleveland Spiders and Rockford Ferest Citys has ample cap room left.
I hear the frontrunners are the Washington Senators and Seattle Pilots.
I was hoping the New York Highlanders would take a look
Darn, I guess I need to cancel my bet on the Louisville Colonels. I figured since their payroll has been $0 since 1899 they might have a shot. One more year of saving I guess.
@deal1122
Realistically, the Red Sox have a very legitimate chance of signing Otani.
Everyone assumes the playing field is even for the most part, but the team that eventually signs Otani will most likely have to pony up a fairly sizeable contract extension. I think that’s where the field ultimately narrows down the potential landing spots.
If I had to take a guess at the most realistic 10 potential landing spots for Otani, in no particular order, I would say: Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Nationals, Cubs, Cardinals, Mariners, Astros, and the Rangers.
Ultimately, I think it’ll come down to one of those 10 teams, when everything is all said and done.
My question remains, if the league has said it is verboten to talk “second contract before the first one is signed”, do you want your team, whoever it is, coloring creatively to try to sign Otani?
A team might be facing Coppolella-sized punishments if they cheat. Or not.
As nice as the payback _couyld_ be, I’d probably rather my team not get punished to add Otani.
No offense, but besides the Braves firing Coppy no one yet even knows what a Coppolella sized punishment is because it hasn’t been handed down yet by MLB.
Unlike many of the “experts” I don’t believe that the mlb punishment will be automatically worse than some we’ve seen in the past (although certainly it may be) just because other GM’s didn’t get fired after different infractions. None of us have enough hard facts yet. I’m waiting for all the facts and punishment to be given before I get overly upset.
I’d compare the situation somewhat to recruiting infractions in the NCAA. Sometimes a coach is retained by some universities, but at other times the coach is dismissed quickly because not all schools handle bad publicity (tied in with penalties) the same. It is entirely possible Coppy had rocked the Braves’ boat far too much and forever tarnished the phrase “Braves way” and those things were unforgivable to the powers that be.
But as your point being that teams may be extremely hesitant to “cheat” the system that may well be the case.
Valid points.
Until we know what the punishments are, we won’t know precedent.
However, will teams want to cheat in advance of the punishments, before they know if Manfred is taking this stuff personally now?
Worst case scenario.
Cheat. Don’t get Otani. Get busted anyway.
Very interesting times to decide a strategy.
Nah, BoSox have bollixed up every high profile international FA they’ve signed. Agent will steer him away from that dumpster fire. Just have to look at Dice-K’s experience off Yawkey Way to see why no Japanese player in their right mind will go there.
Realistically I’d put the Rockford Peaches as a real long shot. The Springfield Isotopes, slightly better odds.
Mikolas could slide into the number 2-3 starter with the Padres right now and if he puts up similar numbers, he would be a vast improvement
If he put up similar numbers, he would be the 2018 AL/NL Cy Young Award winner…
I’m curious though, as to how his newfound overseas success will translate back to the ML’s…If I am a MLB GM, and my team is in need of SP or even SP depth, I’m definitely taking a gamble on him. You can never have too much pitching…
Now, he very well could translate back into an average #4-#5 starter, and I’d happily take that since he most likely will not cost all that much…
I’d give him a minor league deal, see what he does in Spring Training. If he performs well, put him in the 4-5 spot. If he doesn’t perform good, see how he does out of the pen.
I wouldn’t be shocked if someone rolled the dice on Mikolas and gave him a $12 million dollar contract for 3 years. That would not be crippling for most organizations and they’d have an asset who if he would perform at league average would still be of value. If he performs better than league average then he’s a very good signing. A rebuilding team with a low payroll would likely be willing to risk that sort of investment because of the potential rewards.
Have you ever heard of a starting pitcher locking himself up with a deal like that? He would much sooner take a one-year deal, even if it was just for a few million, and try to parlay that into a legitimate contract.
Unless he would still have multiple years of arbitration to go through if he signed a one-year deal, then it might make sense.
Always liked mikolas. I remember the thing that got my attention were his PCL numbers when he was there.
Wonder if Oh’s relative success in StL could help land the closer from Orix? Haven’t heard anything as far as a decent comparison for him either. Cards need BP help though
Always had good stuff with Texas. Good 12/6 and deceptive fastball and motion. There is absolutely a spot if he pitches well in ST next year for somebody.
Agreed. I was really impressed with his stuff in Texas and he had some good games. Just never really got the consistent results
Successful pitching statistics from Japan doesn’t necessarily translate to success over here in the states. Different game over there with players geared towards finesse with less power. Japanese League lineups might only have a couple of guys with pop versus MLB, where five or sixvguys with pop can get a pitcher into trouble fast.
Wouldn’t that, in theory, tend to make his strikeout numbers even more appealing though??
Idk honestly, but I could see him doing fairly well as someone’s #4-#5 SP, but he’s definitely worth the gamble. Especially, since he should come at a fairly modest price, or at least I wouldn’t think he’d command a whole lot as a free agent and bounce back candidate…
Heck I’d offer him 2/6 and if he fails as a starter put him in the pen.
Wasn’t his last ever start in MLB a six inning shutout against the Yankees in 2014?
This would be the type of likely low cost pitcher the M’s should look at. If Paxton, Felix and Leake are the top 3 and if he works out he could be a reliable back end starter in a pitcher friendly home ballpark
The Mets should consider Mikolas. They need someone to eat innings and Mikolas should be cheap.
Any team that isn’t interested in a pitcher that represents a 1.5 WAR starter for less that 4 years and no more than 4 per season is a bit delusional.
Depth wins.
Rangers needs all the help that they can get. So let them get these players from Japan.