Both the Cardinals and the Giants have recently been given permission to speak with NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton’s representatives. As we get deeper and deeper into the Stanton Saga, we’ll keep track of today’s rumors in this post.
- Stanton was actually present with his lead representative, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, at meetings with the Cardinals and Giants last week, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag. Both teams’ GMs attended those summits, adds Heyman, who suggests that Stanton’s presence shows he’s serious about joining either club. Indeed, neither the Cardinals nor Giants have been eliminated from the Stanton derby, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
Earlier…
- In a detailed piece, Heyman references a number of different anonymous sources in expressing skepticism that Stanton would approve a trade to St. Louis. Five different people close to Stanton apparently told Heyman that they believe he’d choose the Giants over the Cardinals if given a choice, and with a full no-trade clause on his side, Stanton has a big say in the matter. One of Heyman’s sources states that the West Coast would be the outfielder’s first choice, the East Coast would be his second choice, and the Midwest would be his last choice. Of course, as Heyman also notes, it’s worth mentioning that talks with St. Louis have progressed to a point at which their front office reps were invited to meet with Stanton’s camp; it seems unlikely that would happen if a trade to the Cardinals was a firm “no” from the reigning home run champ. According to another one of Heyman’s sources, the Marlins believe a trade agreement can be reached with the Giants. However, the Dodgers (who are reportedly Stanton’s first choice) are “not disinterested”. If that’s indeed the case, he could simply choose to wait out the trade process and hope L.A. and Miami can work out an agreement.
- Buster Olney of ESPN reports via Twitter that the Marlins are more focused on moving as much of Stanton’s salary as possible than they are on maximizing their prospect return. As Derrick Gould of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Tim Healey of the Sun Sentinel both point out in their own tweets, this news is considerably in the Giants’ favor. The Cardinals have far more to offer in terms of prospects, but they don’t have a history of doling out enormous contracts to free agents. The Giants, on the other hand, are payroll juggernauts, and although they have nearly $190MM in payroll guarantees for 2018 already, that number could drop considerably next year with the potential departures of Hunter Pence and Denard Span. This doesn’t mean a deal with the Giants is imminent, but it does seem to make them a better trade partner for the Marlins.
- Giants manager Bruce Bochy was apparently not present at the meeting between the San Francisco brass and Stanton’s representatives on Thursday, according to a tweet from Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. It’s a fairly minor detail, but it does seem to decrease the likelihood that a trade is truly on the brink of taking place.
The Cardinals also have Wainrights 19.5 MM coming off the books next season
Pence and Span together equal $29.5m. Plus the Giants have more money to take on salary. So I think Wainwright’s salary is not that much of a factor.
You’re right, Wainwright’s salary really doesn’t matter. But that’s because they have over $60MM they could add right now, even with Wainwright.
The problem is, the front office may not want to take on the risk of Stanton’s contract long-term. I don’t think San Francisco’s is worried about 6-10 years down the road. With the way the Giants are heading, the current front office won’t be around to worry about it. So they are in a situation where they might as well take one last run before it all burns to the ground.
I don’t see how the Giants have more money they can take on, the Cardinals just signed a billion dollar tv deal.
They don’t, its about willingness.
The Giants have a long history of dead money on their books; Stanton is at least going to return some value over most of that contract. Remember, that albatross that was the Zito contract didn’t hurt the Giants at all.
Plus the Zito deal (and Rowand deal) happened when they were still paying the debt service on AT&T Park. The Cards may have gobs of money, but the Giants have more.
The difference is they had young, cheap very good players then. They don’t now and the farm system isn’t going to be producing any notable players any time soon.
“…the farm system isn’t going to be producing any notable players any time soon.”
Is this what your crystal ball is telling you? Being a top 100 prospect is no guarantee of success, Just as conversely, not being a top 100 guy, is no guarantee against becoming a notable player. Looking at just the Giants, some notable players that were not top 100 prospects include Brandon Crawford, Pablo Sandoval, Matt Duffy, and Joe Panik. To put things into perspective Panik was not a top 100 guy, but Kolten Wong was.
And they do have the #2 pick in the next draft as well.
And to continue to put things in perspective, Wong is a better player than Panik.
Darn tootin! They’ve never spent above 150 for a season so its a big departure for them to just jump into the luxury tax.
people seem to think giants are paupers… have no clue they are rolling …
Very true…the giants have the richest owner in baseball I believe…but don’t be a fool and think the cardinals owners are poor…they pretty much own St. Louis…they are just wise about giving contracts out…right now they have to step out of their comfort zone but honestly Stanton’s contract isn’t horrible and he is 28…cardinals are still in a good spot because if they do get him they know they could always trade him out west to be a DH in his latter years…Cardinals will eat money but it’s all about those prime years and the team that gets him will get those years
I respectfully disagree, although I do like Wong.
I would rather have more top 100 prospects than not and anyone who tries rationalize differently is just stupid.
And somehow they still get a competitive balance pick… Smh.
The Cards have just as much money as ANY team in MLB . They are always in the top 5 in attendance
That’s because they are in a small market tv coverage . I think it’s like 28th in the country. Something like that.
If the team was willing to let Pujols walk when the time is right I don’t see them taking on a large sum of salary.
they’re more desperate now. they let Pujols go after winning the World Series.
The Cardinals offered Pujols 10 Years 210 million. And the fans thought that was too long.
and see how Albert is playing now.was the right call. Stanton is only a 3 yr deal he will opt out at age 31-32.
Why in the world would Stanton opt out? The contract is all backloaded. He is not going to get a 7 year $220 mil deal in his age 32 season.
highly unlikely Stanton would opt-out and walk away from that much guaranteed $$$ or that any team would offer him more than that
Unless Bryce Harper changes the contract landscape and then Stanton could do less years and relatively the same money. Do expect that to happen. Ticket prices will be rising again… and soon.
For the people that don’t have a clue. Stanton is 27 going to be 28. Pujols was 31 going to be 32. BIG difference in 10 year contracts. Derp de derp.
Pujols was 32 years old when he was a free agent . Plus there were rumors he was actually 6 years older than he stated!
Potential departures of Pence and Span after 2018? I can’t imagine a scenario unfolding where the Giants would attempt to extend either of them unless they’re on a league minimum salary like Sandoval.
I could see Pence taking considerably less than he makes now to stay. Can’t see him making much more elsewhere and he loves being in SF.
Although Pence loves to play. So while he may like the idea of staying in SF, it would probably be only as a bench guy. If he can get playing time elsewhere, he’ll go. No way Span comes back, even at league minimum.
If I were Stanton no way would I approve a trade to the last place Giants
The only appeal they have to him is the west coast.
Well, you’re not so don’t worry about it.
Giants fan for sure
Wrong again know-it-all
Pretty easily butt-hurt there .. .
My thoughts exactly
Its weird like i can see them winning 90 or just 70
Last year happened for a reason. Some will bounce back some wont.
Still need 2-3 more pieces IMO
They were a last place team for one season. It’s not like they’ve been chronic cellar- dwellers. The D’backs lost only 4 fewer games in 2016, with basically the same team, than the Giants lost in 2017. With Bum, Cueto, and Melancon healthy, unlike last year, and the return of Will Smith, with a core of Posey, Crawford, Belt (and Panik or Gordon) it’s not like they lack talent. They will address CF and 3B. Adding Stanton to what’s there now makes them a contender.
2014-88 wins
2015-84
2016-87 w/ an disastrous 2nd half
2017-64
the problem is that you can’t stop a franchise decline, as seen by the Tigers and Phillies. It was just not a bad year, the Giants have been this bad since July of 2016.
How did the D’backs lose 93 games in 2016, then win 93 games in 2017 with basically the same team? This is baseball and those things happen. Teams with some talent can have big turnarounds. Too many fans think what you see is the way things are and will always be. Not so.
Injuries played a big part in the bad 2017 season. So the bad half season in 2016 should be disassociated from 2017. They still made it to the PS in 2016. The Giant’s philosophy of building the team around pitching and defense makes them better suited to the PS than the regular season. Even with Stanton they probably aren’t going to win 93-95 games. But they could win close to 88-90 though, and get to the PS again.
2014 – Won the WS
2016 – Made playoffs losing to the eventual WS winner in 6
They didnt have the same team. Tiajuan Walker, JD martinez lots of complementary players that produced like Rodney, Descalso, De la rosa and gregor blanco. Robbie Ray and Bradley also broke out in a huge way that no one on SF has the potential to do.
Everything in this world is random, absolutely no way to predict where a baseball team will finish in the West. Factors like injuries, career years,
rookies, and player decline make it hard. Giants do have the pitching to put them back in the game.
They lost in 4
Don’t forget, A.J. pollock was hurt almost all of 2016 for AZ also
I know the answer to this one. The Diamondbacks had 7 starting hitters, 4 starting pitchers, and 3 relievers who were in their 20s. They were players getting better and reaching their potential. Their one god older player was Zach Greinke.
The 2018 Giants will have 1 starting hitter, 2 starting pitchers, and 2 relievers in their 20s. Only one of those 5 is a key player.
Players in their 20s get better. Players in their 30s get worse.
“They didnt have the same team.”
I’ll give you Taijaun Walker. But if I’m not mistaken, De la Rosa, Robbie Ray, and Archie Bradley were on the 2016 roster. They aren’t different players just because they had much better seasons in 2017. They got lucky acquiring 40 year old Rodney. Descalso put up an 82 OPS+ and Blanco contributed a 76 OPS+. Hardly major factors in the turnaround. JDM was a late season addition.
A full season of Stanton would give more than what AZ got from 2 months of JDM .The potential of both Cueto and Moore to bounce back with a full season of Bumgarner gives the Giants every bit of a chance to contend as what Ray and Bradley gave AZ.
So why doesn’t every team just sign young players? Because it doesn’t work that way. Baseball is a learned sport. Unlike football or basketball it’s not about pure athletic ability. The average of all players in MLB is 30.
The Astro’s this year are an aberration of overall team age of the eventual WS winner. Most WS winning teams average around 30 years in age. The Cubs won in 2016 with an average pitching age of 29.9. The Royals in 2015 had a batting age of 29.1 and a pitching age of 30.0. When the Giants won it in 2014 they had a pitching age of 31.7. The year before the WS winning Red Sox had a batting age of 29.6, and a pitching age of 30.2.
Comparing the D’backs and Giants in 2017:
AZ – batting age 28.3, pitching age 28.7
SF – batting age 29.5, pitching age 28.9
It’s not that great a difference. The Giants average batting age will drop significantly in 2017 since a lot of minor league depth pieces, that wound up playing because of injuries, are gone, They’re guys like:
Aaron Hill 35
Justin Ruggiano 35
Mike Morse 35
Drew Stubbs 32.
And in 2019 Pence and Span are gone.
“Don’t forget, A.J. pollock was hurt almost all of 2016…”
But that is the point exactly. In 2017 Bumgarner was out for half the season. Cueto was hampered by blisters and then was sidelined with a strain that was possibly due to compensating for the blisters. Will Smith missed the entire season. Melancon was out for significant time, and when he did pitch was ineffective because of his injury.
If the D;Backs can lose 93 games then turn around and win 93, the Giants after losing 97 can come back and win 88-90.
How did the Giants lose the NLDS in 6 games in 2016?
Even year magic
Stanton alone will not make a team a contender! Not in baseball .
Do you think the Giants would have been in last place with the team running on all cylinders last year? I highly doubt it. Mad bum, Cueto, alone can make it difficult to beat the Giants!! Not counting a healthy Pence, panik, and Crawford.
Cueto is declining. Matt Moore was the worst starter in baseball last year among all those who qualified enough innings. Pence and Span are absolutely mediocre. Crawford is nothing special at the plate. Their bullpen is very weak. This team isnt 1 piece away from contending. Stanton makes them an 80 win team
There’s no reason to believe Cueto is declining. He hasn’t lost velocity. And even if he did, he has so many pitches he doesn’t have to rely on the FB. His 2017 down season was due to the blister issue he suffered through for most of the season. He’s definitely a bounce back candidate.
Matt Moore is another candidate. He has good stuff, and had some good starts. He had 10 starts last season when he went at least 6 innings and gave up 2 runs or less. The ERA is a product of some horrendous starts, but that would suggest there is some mechanical issue, not that he can’t pitch.
Pence and Span will be platooned. Last season Pence hit .286 w/ a .776 OPS against LHPs, and Span hit .284, w/ an .804 OPS against RHPs.
What Crawford does w/ the bat is just gravy. With the runs he denies the other team, he could hit less and still be valuable. I’d say an elite defender at SS with a career OPS+ of 97 is special.
The bullpen will be better with the return of Will Smith and a healthy Melancon. Plus pieces can still be added, If they get Stanton they win at least 88 games.
Even if they get Stanton their lineup would not be as good as the Dodgers, Rockies or Dbacks. Their rotation wont be better than AZ. Yes they would improve but its not going to make them compete with the top teams in the NL
Just a year before the diamondbacks finished a little better then the giants, and now they are a better team along with Colorado!? Lol ok dude! Arizona just lost Martínez, and Greinke is about all they have with goldy, the rocks lost the closer and cargo, with no pitching. I put the giants in second next year as long as they can patch the outfield with a power bat and few other important fA!
Greinke is all they have? Greinke is just as good as bumgarner and Walker, Ray , Corbin and Godley are all by far better than shark, moore cueto and Blach. The dbacks lineup is far more dynamic than SF even without JD.
I’ll agree that the D’backs have more than Greinke, but he is is due for regression. Both BB Ref and Steamer project him to regress. They also project Bumgarner to have a better season than Greinke. Ray is a clear regression candidate. He averaged a 92 ERA+ in his previous 3 seasons.
You’re dreaming, and losing credibility, saying that Walker or Corbin are better than Cueto. Walker has averaged a 105 ERA+,Corbin a 104 ERA+ for their careers. Cueto has a career 121 ERA+, and just the season before last posted a 144 ERA+.
I never said they are better than Cueto. I said as a whole their staff is better
Okay, but Bum is better than Greinke, and Cueto is better than whoever is #2 for the D’backs. I’d rather have a better 1 and 2 than a better 3, 4 and 5.
Bum is not any better than Greinke based off anything whole career stats. The postseason sure but that has no relevance here.They are both elite pitchers but there is nothing that gives bumgarner an edge. Cueto is absolute in no way shape or form better than Robbie Ray. Ray has him beat in every statistical category last season. If you have to go back 2 seasons to try and say who is better thats not a valid argument. Your whole basis is the dbacks pitchers massively over achieved and will all regress while the giants guys will all have massive rebounds.
“Bum is not any better than Greinke based off anything whole career stats.”
How so? Both have a career ERA+ of 123. Given that Greinke will be 34 and Bum will be 28, I don’t think you could find a single objective source that would take Greinke over Bumgarner.
Robbie Ray has had 1 good year after posting a career 92 ERA+ He’s coming off a career season. Even then he had a 3.72 FIP. Both BB Ref and Steamer show regression. Even with his career year his career ERA+ is 109. And even with Cueto’s 2017 struggles he still carries a 121 ERA+. Age is all Ray going for him, and guaranteed he will regress.
How can you say career stats are what show Greinke to be better than Bum, and yet say it’s invalid to go back 2 seasons when comparing Cueto and Ray? I guess the fact that Cueto was injured with blisters most of the 2016 season is not to be taken into account as is Ray’s sub-par 2016? Rejecting stats from when Cueto was healthy and Ray not so good is apparently how you arrived at that biased opinion.
How am i supposed to judge Bumgarners 2017 stats if he missed months because he was dirt biking. Greinke had a 6.3 WAR last season according to BR and Bumgarner never has come close to that in his entire career. I can totally see why you would think Bumgarner is better but you said that you would rather have a better 1-2 than a 3-4-5 when comparing rotations. That is something you cant quantify because the production Bumgarner gives would barely be better than what Greinke gives the dbacks and even that is uncertain. The idea that Cueto is a better pitcher than Ray is just false. The absolute best scenario is Cueto and ray are even in 2018. Thats if Rays WAR goes down from 5.5 to 3.5 and Cuetos goes up from 1.6 to 3.5. And dont even get into the rest of their staffs because the dbacks back end blows the giants way out of the water. Giants rotation is 3rd best in the division.
Try being objective for once. Why do you continue to use Cueto’s injury hampered 2017 season as your base of reference? WAR is a flawed yardstick to use, but if you want to use that, okay. Ray had a 5.0 WAR in 2017, but his average WAR is just 1.65. Cueto has an average WAR of 3.32 for his career. Ray’s highest WAR ever was 5.0 in his 1 career year. Cueto has had a better WAR than that in 3 other seasons, including a 5.6 in just the season before last.
I guarantee you Cueto will progress to the mean of his stats in 2018, which are better than Ray’s, and Ray will regress to his mean. Guaranteed.
Well its easy to make the Giants look better when you assume nothing but bounce backs from them and nothing but regression from another. Watching Ray pitch in the nl west for years i always liked what i saw from him. Electric stuff but could not control it. Maybe he just took a big step foward and is a good pitcher now. Ever consider giving him credit? Also its not just the dbacks. Dodgers Nationals and Cubs would have no issues with the Giants
Those were obviously different baseballs last season… never heard of Cueto having problems with blisters. He’s been pitching the same all these years, and only this past year he had blister problems???
That’s an awful lot of IFS!
I take 3 WS and 1 losing season in last 7 years. Cards aren’t any better not making playoffs last 2 years. Giants made 2016 playoffs and last place 2017. Fluke year. How are the Cards going to make the playoffs. You guys tell me. What will be different than the last 2 years. Remember 2014 NLCS 1-3 comeback against the cards. Horrible Barry Zito saved the Giants in game 5 to help win the series and win a WS.
Look at the records. The Cards were better.
The last two years the Cardinals have been at least close to making the playoffs with the second wild card…face it dude…the Cardinals have a bright future with the farm system they have and especially with Stanton…the giants are almost over the luxury tax with no farm system…it doesn’t take Einstein to figure this out…and as far as money the cardinals have plenty so don’t think the Giants have too much on them there
Close only counts in horseshoes and handgrenades. This is baseball. Dodgers came close but it isn’t a WS. We went to the playoffs in 2016 and cards were close good one bro. Giants were better than the cards in 2016 and worse in 2017. Next Giants have a good chance to be better. Say bye bye to lance lynn. He probably go to the cubs.
I’m sorry that the Giants are in a decline…up against the luxury tax and no minor league system…I feel your pain…so I will turn another cheek and together we can watch how the giants will continue to lose…reality is tough to accept sometimes…and saying good bye to Lance Lynn and hello to Weaver, Reyes, Flaherty…I could go on but I have to manage my time…how’s the giants situation with prospects?
There’s no doubt that the Cards have a lot of money, but the Giants have more. The Giants aren’t almost over the CBT threshold, they’ve already surpassed it. But they don’t really care that much. Whereas the Cards have lease payments of either $62m or $108m ( I couldn’t tell which from the stadium agreement) the Giants own their park outright with the thing paid off. If all things were equal, which they’re not, the Giants can afford $62m to $108m more in expenditures. Both teams sell out consistently, but the Giants draw from a much more wealthy base. There’s a reason why SF is willing to take on more of Stanton’s contract than the Cards are.
Umm not sure where you got your facts from but the Cardinals own not lease Busch stadium. You can search the St. Louis post dispatched web site and it can break down all the facts. Also they do not pay any near 62 mil a year, it’s not half that amount for the private financing.Busch will be paid for in full in 2025. Also they own, with the exception to the parking garages which ownership sold off in ‘96, everything around Busch including the cash cow of ballpark village. So to say giants have more money to spend, perhaps but certainly not gobs.
Stanton is not going to St. Louis. What’s their fallback plan?
That’s because the Giants are desperate
Ya I don’t think a lifelong dodgers fan wants to play for the last place giants. Might as well stay in Miami
Giants, even with Stanton, are not going to contend any time soon. If Stanton is serious about going to a contender, then he is just playing the Giants to get the Dodgers interested. Andrew Friedman is sitting back waiting for the Marlins to eat a big, big chunk of Stanton’s contract.
He can veto trades but if Miami doesn’t like the trades they will keep him and trade most everybody else off and he will still play for a last place team. Fun to watch this game of chicken.
I hope Stanton gets stuck in Miami
Stanton for a PTBNL to Seattle.
The cardinals have money coming out their ass SPEND IT!!!!!
Will the Giants have a Dodgers/Yankees level payroll? Because I don’t see them competing even w/ Stanton. Adding Stanton means that would put them over the luxury tax still w/ holes at 3B, CF, 2B (if Panik is in the deal) and pitching. they also lack depth.
LA, AZ, WASH, and CHI are better even if all 4 made no moves this off-season.
You vastly underestimate the Giant’s financial power. They own their park outright. They paid off the debt service about a year or so ago. They sell out most of their games. They probably have as much money to spend as the Dodgers. So far they haven’t spent like the Dodgers, but maybe they were waiting until the park was paid off. But rest assured they have an abundance of financial clout. If it takes going well over the CBT threshold to win they will do it.
sure, but even the Dodgers and Yankees are even scaling back spending because the luxury tax penalties are severe now. Since the Giants will have to spend in free agency w/ the lack of major ready prospects, they will be penalized for having a high payroll.
Not including 2017, the NYYs had paid a totlal of $303.9m in tax. The Dodgers were at $113.5m. The Giants had paid only $4.7m. The increase in the penalty is 10%, from 40% after the 3rd year to 50%. Even with the increase the Giants are way behind the top 2. And with money coming off the books after 2018, it’s possible the Giants could get below the threshold and having it reset. They can add salary and not come close to the Dodgers in tax paid.
As 4th year offenders:
Exceed the 2018 CBT limit ($197M) – 50% tax
Exceed the 2018 CBT limit by $20M – 63% tax
Exceed the 2018 CBT limit by $40M – 90% tax *and* lose 2019 2nd & 5th round draft picks
I think teams are getting the message that high priced free agents just aren’t worth the money most of the time.. The only value pitchers over 20 million are Scherzer, Strasburg, and Kershaw and maybe Verlander. The rest are just poor value deals. The same thing can be said for position players, Only Trout, Votto, and Stanton are good values right now. I’m not sure where Harper and Machado will stand next year.
So what? Even if SF exceeds the threshold by $20m they still will be far short of paying the amounts that LA and NY have paid, and SF can afford it. There is no danger of exceeding the limit by $4om even adding Stanton and Gordon..
But the Dodgers
and Yankees all have great minor league systems to go along with a ton of money! The Giants don’t !
Panik only goes if Dee Gordon is part of the deal too
Giants will most likely get Gordon as well. A legit leadoff hitter, and a middle of the order guy. You may not think that makes them better…. but I guarantee the brass of whichever losing team you root for feel otherwise.
Wow, this really sucks. It should always be prospects over shedding payroll. They’re gonna shed TONS regardless, dont be a cheapa$$. Jeter looking like the 2nd coming of Loria. Im perfectly cool with a rebuild but do it right for once.
Should? Shedding payroll is a vital part of fiscally managing a team. As long as the current system exists, which works BTW, teams need the ability to shed salary.
Here’s the problem they have a terrible tv contract and absolutely terrible attendance. They probably should keep in mind social equity, but not sure you can fault them if the boat is sinking. I think they have to have a chance to rebuild it and then be judged off of the that. Yelich and Ozuna would be significant hauls. Gordon and Stanton well they’d provide salary relief. The FO isn’t going to win over fans in what should be a tear down, but they need a complete rotation and pen. Just hard to see, who knows though? If they do it right with young exciting players, naming right it might be an interesting renegotiation in 2022 for tv rights that might set them up well.
Stanton approving a trade to SF doesn’t improve his chances to go to a contender. Might as well stay in Miami.
Miami has a stacked line up, all they need is a rotation and they might be set.
That’s true but they need like an entire rotation
And the giants need an entire offense haha
All true, except if he stays, they trade all those other dudes in the current lineup with him, and he’s playing with a bunch of AA guys.
I wonder if we could see a three team deal here, where a rebuilding team like the Tigers fronts the money,
So like Cardinals or whoever sends prospects to Detroit, Detroit sends money to STL.
No prospects are worth even a fraction of the close to $300mm Stanton is owed though.
So based on your opinion, if the Marlins ate $200MM and it only left $96Mm over 10 years, he still wouldnt be worth any prospects? Damn, you should be apply to be a GM.
It would just be the portion St. Louis doesn’t want to pay. Probably like 50 mil.
Dude the Cardinals are NOT giving up 3 prospects for Stanton and then turn around and give Detroit prospects too. Cardinals have plenty of money to do his entire contract plus bring in another 20 Million dollar guy to boot. In fact there is not a team in baseball capable of adding more payroll than St.Louis could this year. They just don’t do business that way. I get that you are a Tigers fan but we are not selling you our prospects. My best friend is a Tigers fan and i will tell you what i told him.. Avila has run that team into the dirt. how he still has a job is beyond me. The only guy i would have any interest in on that entire roster right now is Fulmer and maybe Cabrera if you were willing to eat about a third of his salary. Cards don’t normally go after 1 tool players no matter how elite that one tool is.
There are only three position players that a worth the money right now that are making over 20 million, Trout 9th, Votto 16th, and Stanton 29th. The rest have been a poor value. Only Strasburg, Scherzer, and Kershaw were good values for pitchers, which tells me that you only have a 10% chance of getting a good player over 20 million a year that is worth the money.
What about Cano?
On Stanton’s end, the Giants have one of the worst farms in the game, their success depends entirely on the Giants FO signing FA’s and making trades. Big risk for Giancarlo. Not saying the Giants won’t go to $220M payroll, but that could be what Stanton wants to hear.
To be fair, they were a terrible farm system when they won three out of five World Series too. They’ve always been ranked near the bottom.
They usually don’t have flash, but they did produce some quality players. They churned out Posey/Crawford/Panik/Belt/Pablo and more on the offensive side, out of what was labeled a bottom 5 farm system.
I will agree it seems barren now though, and they would theoretically be giving up the top few guys from that group, leaving them without much.
Right, but are they a Giancarlo away from competing with what they have? No, and they have nothing coming. My point is Giancarlo would need to hear “we are going to increase payroll” if he were to okay a trade.
They are a Giancarlo away from competing with just a couple more moves. Stanton in RF, Pence/Span platoon in LF. sign some like Dyson for CF, and perhaps Nunez at 3B. Arroyo is also a possibility there. And they do have help coming; the aforementioned Arroyo, Duggar, and Shaw. Slater also looked good when he was called up.
You know you just contradicted your own statement right?
After reading Stanton will end up a Dodger if it appears he will go to SF.
He’s going to the Cardinals and Ohtani to the Yankees. I’m calling it now yanks cards 2018 World Series
I just got a notifaction that it’s unlikely that stanton would waive his no trade clause to go to the cards.
I’ll believe it when I see it. And if it’s true then accept the damn trade already this is getting ridiculous now
I got the same notification.
I just got one that says the Angels are wasting Mike Trouts best years
and they need a full rotation and bullpen just to finish third this year!
I’ll have what you’re smoking.
My question is if he really wanted to be on the West Coast, then why did he sign such a huge contract for 13 years that would keep him in Miami? I guess Money Talks
You answered your own question. $325M plus the option to be traded to a team of his choosing or opt out after six years. Makes a hell of a lot of sense to me.
As a Cards fan, it’s time to move on….
I been saying this for a week now. It is pretty clear Stanton doesn’t want to play for the Cardinals, that is why you keep hearing these rumors. Not all rumors are valid but when you hear them over and over and from different sources you can bet your life it has legs. I really like Stanton but i have hoped against him in St.Louis from day one. I think they would end up regretting it even if he stays healthy which is not a given with this guy. They are just being used by Miami who i believe has known all along he doesn’t want to play in St.Louis. I wouldn’t deal with them at all unless they want to trade Ozuna for a reasonable return. He is the only player i would have any interest in at all to be honest. I am not paying 9 Million for Zeiglar b/c i am not on Crack and Yelich iusn’t that different from they already have. Gordon maybe if i knew he would be willing to move to CF, then what do you do with Fowler? Ozuna is a clear upgrade in CF, Gordon is a mystery there. If it is me i am asking about Ozuna and if they don’t bite i am putting their number on caller block. They need us a LOT more than we need them.
Stanton wasn’t too concerned with winning when he signed a 325mil contract with the Marlins. Now it’s super important? Giants are three time champs since 2010. That being said they are the team on the 10’s. No amount of jealousy or hate from fans or one last place finish can change that fact. In 2015 this beat up Giants team, the same who finished in last in ’16, almost took the Cubs, who were clicking on all cylinders, out of the postseason. Reminds me a ton of the Spurs who were winning ‘ships then had off year with aging players/injuries, retooled, went right back to being perennial contenders. Most of the fans in here root for losing franchises. I don’t expect them to understand.
I wouldn’t say the Giants almost took the Cubs out of the postseason. They still would have needed to win game 5.
Joe Maddon said his biggest fear of the PS was the thought of having to face Cueto in Game 5. Cueto went 8.0 innings and gave up only 1 run on 3 hits in Game one.
And lost.
It could be that Hill has convinced Stanton’s agents to go though this charade with SF & StL in order to convince at least one of the LAD, NYY ,or BOS to make a better offer.
I feel like Jon Heyman is just being that guy who you hear all the time that’s like “yeah I know this people pretty close to X player and they don’t see it happening” when really everyone involved is just blowing smoke to be part of X rumor.
You mean like 75% of the people that post here?
Everything in this world is random, absolutely no way to predict where a baseball team will finish in the West. Factors like injuries, career years,
rookies, and player decline make it hard. Giants do have the pitching to put them back in the game.
Eat at Arby’s.
In 2017 it was not so random. All six divisions were won by the heavy favorites The 4 WC’s were not favorites but there really were no favorites after the top six. The true exception was Minn.
Jeeze, either some fans have extremely short memories, are new to the game, or just don’t understand it. Based on the Stanton saga, it’s clear that there are some misconceptions about the giants, and really about baseball in general. I’ve been reading mlbtraderumors for many years, but until now never had a compelling reason to comment (or even make an account). A few disclaimers, I am a huge baseball fan / youth coach. I am fans of two teams: the giants, and whoever is playing the Dodgers. I am 30 years old and spent my childhood going to candlestick watching Barry bonds and Jeff Kent plaster balls, usually multiple times a game. I live in the bay area. Ok now that’s done with here we go.
Each baseball team (especially in the MLB) is a unique entity. They operate differently. They have different ideas, different cultures, different people, different philosophies. Fans and writers (human nature really) try to label them into cookie cutter groups, but this is false. With the cubs and Astros winning recently with young, lengthy rebuilt teams the latest wave of fans are applying this logic to every team. It was the same thing when the royals won and suddenly a strong bullpen and defense were the measure of success. Each team is different, each team has a different idea of what It will take to win, and how to win.
I’ll use the giants, athletics and Dodgers as my examples, because these are teams I know the most about. The giants have never gone through what is today described as a rebuild since at least before I was born. The giants believe in fielding a competitive team, no matter what. The giants know that it’s anyone’s game in the playoffs. You don’t have to win 100 games and have the best player at every position. I don’t remember who said it but, “It’s not the best 25 players, but the right 25 players”. A guy doesn’t have to be a “top prospect” or be a perennial all star to have a good year, and come through when it matters most. After the giants traded for Barry bonds and didn’t win they traded away Matt Williams who was a top3 3rd baseman for Jeff Kent. When the giants signed Barry zito and Aaron Rowland the media called it a fatal mistake that would hamstring the team for a decade. When the giants had this insane rookie appropriately names the freak and couldn’t even give him an average of 2 runs per game everyone was calling for the giants to trade him for a haul, instead the scrappy “nobody” giants won the 2010 world series. This is how the giants do business. They get the guys they think will help them, not the guys the news or fans want them to get. Ask Aubrey huff.
This brings me to their current roster. This is a core that is as good as any team in baseball, and one that has actual success and the rings to prove it. The giants have a history of having a bad year and following it up with success. The giants won in 2010,2012,2014, but didn’t even make the playoffs in 2009,2011,2013. The giants have about the same chance every year. And they bounce back well.
The roster has a few holes, but not many. Buster Posey is the best catcher on the planet, and it’s not close. Brandon belt is and has been the best defensive first baseman for years. Brandon Crawford is a top 3 SS by every stat, and panik and Crawford have been the best defensive middle infield duo for years. But this is a team built around defense and amazing pitching. Last year exposed every single weakness the giants had. The didn’t replace the key elements they lost over the last few years and it showed. They need a great defender in center field. Not only does their team need it, but their park does too.
Which takes me to finances. The giants are the 5th most valuable franchise. The waterfront San Francisco stadium was privately financed and 100% paid off. They have one of the most lucrative tv deals, have sold out every game for almost a decade, and are in the silicon valley, one of the wealthiest markets on the planet. The giants payroll isn’t “how much money can we spend” it’s, “what players do we need and how much do I write the check for?”. The difference is they dont just throw money at everyone. They get the guys they need, and they pay guys who perform for them. Ask Aubrey huff.
The giants have great coaches, from top to bottom. They consistently develop top level players from the relative unknown. Their farm has never been well regarded yet produced: buster Posey, Madison bumgarner, the Brandons, panik, lincecum, Cain. Nobody every suggested trading these guys for an allstar.
Last time the giants traded for an mvp was Barry bonds. That worked out well for both parties. Stanton would be a perfect in San Francisco. They have the money to not be hamstrung by his deal, they have the guys to trade, and offer a good team to slot into. It just makes too much sense.
You took all my thoughts and put them into words. Bravo.
But it’s still Stanton’s choice. Personally I hope he accepts the trade. But they will still need a center fielder and leadoff hitter. Maybe they will have a few bucks left for someone like Lorenzo Cain or even Jarrod Dyson would be a cheaper fit
LOL the giants coming off a 98 loss season are not even in the same competitive ballpark as the Dodgers even if they add Stanton. Posey is the best C in baseball but the rest of your opinions are just crazy. Seager was a gold glove canidate and gives far better offense then what Crawford does. Brandon Crawford is behind Lindor Seager Correa Didi Simmons are all better than crawford and thats just off the top of my head. Belt is not the top 1B defender. As for infield defense sure they are good but thats not going to close the 40 game gap
You say the Giants never went thru a rebuild but how do you think they got Posey, Bumgarner, Lincecum? They picked in the top 10 for 4 straight years. That’s a rebuild.
Giant fans don’t accept that players in their 30s decline and then fall dramatically. Roy Halladay had a 7 WAR season in 2012 and then followed that with -0.4 and -1.4. That’s typical.
Yes, the Giants have a lot of money, but they’ve only been willing to go to about 180 million in the past. They can certainly blow past the luxury tax but the new rule is that if they go above $237 million with benefits their draft pick drops 10 slots. The Giants are at $196 million now for 2018. when yo include benefits. Adding Stanton and Gordon would put them at $231 million. Adding a CF takes them over $237 million. Good luck with that.
Being bad and rebuilding are not the same thing.
Yea! They went 57 years
and didn’t win a thing! It’s peak
and valleys for every team in all sports!
The Bonds deal ” worked out well for both parties”?
The Giants pretend like Barry Bonds doesn’t exist and they won 0 WS with him
It’s absolutely incorrect that the “Giants pretend like Barry Bonds doesn’t exist”. Bonds was added to the Giant’s wall of fame this past July.They have brought Bonds back numerous times for celebrations, including the recent 10 year anniversary of the pennant winning ’97 team. He is a special adviser to Lary Baer, and he’s at the ballpark on regular basis sitting in Baer’s box.
Maybe he didn’t get the Giants a WS title, but while he was there SF won 53 division titles, and a pennant. Hr gave them the opportunity to win it all, and that is all anyone can ask for.
“Including the recent 10 year anniversary of the pennant winning ‘97 Team”
I’m not sure if this is supposed to say 20 year anniversary of the ‘97 Team or the 10 year anniversary of the ‘07 Team , but I don’t understand either or because the Giants did not win the pennant in either 97 or 07. Marlins won the pennant (and WS)?in 97 and Rockies won the pennant in 07.
Unless you mean 15 year anniversary of the ‘02 Team.
20 year anniversary of the ‘97 NL West division
The pretending Bonds doesn’t exist ended a couple years ago. He’s on the Giants staff.
No disrespect but half of your post sounds real homer-ish and that’s coming from a die hard giants fan that wants Stanton.
Your opinions are not facts. Crawford is not a top 3 SS. Crawford and Panik have not been the best middle infield for years, and Belt is not and had not been the best defensive 1B for years.
They are all good and we love them.
I agree with everything you just said, except for one thing. Bonds was not traded for, he signed a six year deal in December ‘92. That’s all they talked about during the playoffs when the pirates were playing the braves in ‘92,is this it for Bond’s in a pirates uniform and possibly going on to be the highest played player.
As a Cardinals fan, I really hope they spend the money elsewhere, UNLESS they can have Stanton for the same money that Heyward turned down.
Stanton
Numerous sources have indicated Miami might be willing to include $40+/-M to move Stanton. The Dodgers want to get under the luxury threshold, about $10M AAV. $ shown below are from Cots (2018 salary and luxury tax AAV).
How about A Gonzalez($22.357 & $22 AAV) plus Kazmir ($17.667 & $16 AAV) for Stanton ($25M & $25 AAV)? LAD gets $13M savings in AAV for 2018 and Miami increases their payroll by about $15M in 2018. Dodgers might include a medium level prospect as a sweetener.
LAD gets under luxury tax for 2018 and gets Stanton. Miami sheds entire Stanton contract for “only” a net increase of $15M in 2018 payroll. Kazmir might be moved by Miami later for additional salary relief. Gonzalez is sunk cost for Marlins, thus a prospect sweetener.
This assumes Stanton only wants to get traded to LA.
Doesn’t A Gon also have a no trade clause? Why would he want to go to Miami?
He might prefer being on the disabled list in no income tax Florida for his final year versus paying Cal income tax in 2018? Or he could be offered some money by one of the teams to waive the no trade.
He’s from there. He can be on the disabled list at home
Did you miss the part that the Marlins’ objective is to decrease their 2018 payroll, not future payrolls? Your deal does the exact opposite and gives the Marlins no prospects. Seriously?
Miami absolutely does not want AGon and Kazmir. They don’t want to take on any salary like those 2. They want a payroll of $90m. They want young, inexpensive, controllable players. That’s what any team in a rebuild wants.
There’s no way Dodgers get under luxury threshold quite honestly. They are estimated 213M+13M in benefits. If they were to add Stanton and no other pieces that 251M. That would require them, with no wiggle room at all, to shed somewhere around 54M. That would require them to shed Gonzo(21MAAV), Kaz(15MAAV), BMac(10MAAV), Yaz(~10M). And that’s just for some semblance of balance. If they wanted wiggle to where they can add what is needed to the pen, then they’d need to go further with Puig(6M), Fields (2M) with other incidentals. It’s going to be impossible for them to hit that mark this year.
Why would Miami even want/need him in the first place? They already have an established 1B in Justin Bour, who is much younger and much cheaper.
Miami is trying to cut payroll
If Stanton has said he would not waive his NTC to go to St Louis then why did he allow his reps to take a meeting with them? Unless you hear it come out of HIS mouth don’t take any stock in it. It’s obvious not all about him wanting to play on the west coast and the Giants willing to take on more money then the Cardinals. If all this was true and that’s all there was to it he’d already have a giants uniform. I think the longer this takes the better the chance the Cardinals have.
I agree. Maybe Stanton did not speak in absolutes. Maybe he said he probably didn’t want to go to StL Maybe he said he might not waive the NTC to go to the Cards. It seems reasonable to me, that even if he’s not crazy about playing in StLhe will at least hear what they have to say. It’s a great place for players to play, and maybe they can sell him on playing there.
Stanton would obviously make either one of those 2 teams better. And when u have a chance to add a guy in the middle of ur lineup that A) can hit one out any at bat and B) get pitched around. Then u add that guy if the price is right. Stanton isn’t perfect but there isn’t a legit guy who makes ur team better available this year other then him.
The Giants have a trash farm. If they r going to get better they have to b in on Stanton. Cards don’t have a true impact guy on there roster right now. And there farm is full of guys who will b good. But not Stanton good.
I cringed when the Yanks gave up so much to get Sonny Gray and the white Sox trio last year. But I’d say that worked out pretty well.
This was reported a month ago that the Cardinals had no chance of getting him, yet they continued to pursue him, make a formal trade offer, and meet with his reps. If this was true, then you’re saying that they’ve been wasting their time the past month and they would have known that. At this point I take everything with a grain of salt.
Whats even more interesting is that BOTH the Red Sox and Cardinals were reported as having no chance, but only the Red Sox lost interest. With Stanton willing to physically meet with the Cardinals, I have a hard time believing it’s really ever been a firm “no.@
It’s for the fan base. The FO needs them to get excited and if they don’t trade for him. They can say at least we tried.
Stanton should take the safe bet and go to the Giants or the Cardinals and then later opt out in order to sign with the Dodgers
Why is that a safe route. He can just opt out in 3 years and stay in Miami where he is comfy and put up his numbers
That would be best case scenario for cards. This deal would be done already if Cards knew that he would opt out. 3 years of his prime and Dodgers pay his decline years. That’s a no brainer. However if he gets hurt or starts rapid decline earlier he won’t opt out and cards are stuck with albatross of a contract. No regrets about letting pujols go.
I’m still convinced he ends up going to some team not named the Cardinals or Giants.
based on what?
Based on there being no real reason to believe they are more likely than any other team to get him and betting on the field over any 1 team generally being the smart move.
Not in this extreme case.
Aw, Stanton might as well go with the Giants. They had key injuries and a couple off-years and will bounce back into contender status for a couple years.
The Dodgers have to reset their payroll this year to get rid of the luxury tax, and have all the outfielders they need. It could be different after 2020 when the Giants realize they can’t reload much longer, and Stanton can opt out.
The Giants won exactly ZERO World Series’ during the Barry Bonds era. After they shed Bonds, they won 3 W/S by building a team primarily through their farm system. They will go nowhere if they return to building a team around one “prima donna” super slugger. This is not a quick fix. Bringing in Stanton is smoke and mirrors to stabilize season ticket sales. His contract will hamper the Giants payroll for better than a decade. With Stanton we will have years of mediocrity!
Take that Jon.
The Giants have all the leverage in the market. They will give up their average prospects for an overpaid overrated player. Then once they find out that they still suck with Stanton, they will trade him for better prospects.
In the end I fear the Dodgers swoop in at the last minute and we all eat our hats
As a Giants fan watching this unfold, gotta say, “Go Cardinals Go!”
Stanton will go to the Giants. The Cardinals will realize this makes no financial sense plus parting with the prospects to take it further.than talk.
The Giants don’t care about financials and don’t have the prospects, but the Marlins want out of the contract..
I would hold Stanton for now. I think the Cardinals would make a lot of sense for Ozuna. Obviously, Weaver is probably off the table at this point, I’m not as high on Flaherty personally, and Reyes is injured and I doubt they’d be trading him either.
What about Ozuna, Barraclough, Ellington, Nicolino, and Ziegler+ $4.5 million to the Cardinals for Bader, Gallen, Gomber, Arozarena, and Helsley? Is that too many prospects in AA or higher going back? Would it have to be reworked to include Flaherty instead of 1-2 others? I’d be willing to trade Wittgren in deals, but he’s coming off an injury, so his value is down. Would the Marlins have to include someone like Conley b/c of less control on Ozuna than if they would have traded him during the season?
The Giants might consider Lorenzo Cain and some bullpen help in free agency, which probably makes more sense for them
That trade is just silly from a Marlins point of view. Looks like you want them to take a bunch of our mediocre prospects for Ozuna, Zeiglar and 3 of their prospects. Lol! I doubt that package even gets you Ozuna alone. If they find a taker for Stanton i don’t believe they would trade Ozuna or Yelich. No reason to. They will for sure try to dump Zeiglars 9 Million on someone and Prado too but will have trouble finding a taker for Prado i think. He might end up back with the Yankees. Zeiglar is pretty good but he is old and overpaid. For me the Marlins would need to add about 2 or 3 Million in cash to make that happen.and the prospect back shouldn’t be anyone in our top 40.
I’m a Marlins fan…I mentioned eating half of Ziegler’s deal b/c I think he is movable at that price, considering he was used incorrectly last year, still put up elite GB%, and only had a couple of stretches that were bad, which effected his bottomline, mostly caused by how he was used…as for Prado, I think they’d have to eat $3-4 million per on his deal to move him, and I would consider trying to package him in another deal, possibly with Bour and/or Straily
Barraclough isn’t a prospect. He comes with a few years of control, pre arb, and misses bats in the bullpen. The other guys are just for retaining upper minors/fronge big league depth/possible reclamation guys/possible 40-man cuts. Ellington throws 100+, but command issues, and Nicolino probably needs a fresh start somewhere…Marlins get Bader, who is blocked with the Cardinals, to potentially step into the OF right away, and some arms both somewhat close to and a bit further away from the big leagues.
Could it be the fact that his opt-out clause is what’s really holding things up? I’m pretty sure that has come up, cause what team will want to make a trade of this stature and not want him to opt in?
Any team that’s convinced that most of the last 7 years of Stanton’s deal will be paying for an unproductive player. I don’t think anyone expects all 7 years to be bad, but the last 4, ages 34-37, should have red flags. The Dodgers would trade for Stanton in a heartbeat if they knew he’d opt out. Yes, I’m sure they’d prefer Stanton to have a 5 year deal than 3, but they’d definitely prefer a 3 year deal to 10.
The Dodgers will end up passing on Stanton because they don’t think he’ll opt out.
The Dodgers are passing on Stanton because of the money. The Dodgers has had the largest payroll in baseball the last few years and have come up short. I understand that he wants to play for his hometown team but if he wants to win, he comes to St. Louis who is the Dodgers Kriptonyte lbvs
It’s really quite a simple choice. Which is more important to Giancarlo Stanton, being a celebrity or being a baseball player? If he chooses the celebrity lifestyle he goes to the coast, if he chooses playing in front of crowds that will literally stand and cheer to watch him take his fourth at bat on an 0-3, 3 k day and be the face of a city, you go to St. Louis.