4:05pm: John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle spoke to Evans about the Giants’ recent meeting with Stanton. The GM states to Shea that Stanton “had a good feel for what he wanted to hear from us” and acknowledged that AT&T Park is one of his favorite places to play. Stanton was complimentary of the Giants’ fans and the way in which they support the team.
Though the process has dragged on for quite some time now, Evans reminds of the human side of what is a life-altering decision for Stanton: “There’s a lot of personal factors people don’t know about. We don’t necessarily know those personal factors as well.” Evans also, once again, confirmed that the two sides did reach an agreement, with contingencies, one of which (of course) is Stanton waiving his no-trade clause.
2:44pm: The Giants anticipate that Marlins star Giancarlo Stanton will decide whether to waive his no-trade clause by the end of the week, according to Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (via Twitter), who does also note that the timeline is hardly set in stone.
Pavlovic also notes that San Francisco views the Dodgers as a bigger “threat” to land Stanton, not the Cardinals — the other team that has been most involved in trade talks to this point. Along those same lines, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Dodgers and Marlins were in contact as recently as Tuesday, though their Stanton discussions are still not advanced.
Giants GM Bobby Evans also acknowledged earlier today that the organization had a sit-down with Stanton, in an interview with KNBR (via John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, on Twitter). He also said that the team did put the terms of a deal in place with Miami in advance. Evans’ surprisingly candid comments run counter to yesterday’s comments from Marlins CEO Derek Jeter, who said in an appearance on WINZ-AM radio (link via the Associated Press) that his team is still “gathering information” and that “anything up to this point has been speculation.”
Whether or not a deal will come together in that time frame remains to be seen, of course. It’s conceivable that Stanton could simply decide he is not interested in waiving his no-trade clause at this point. But the report does hint that we could see resolution on the situation before the Winter Meetings, potentially freeing up other market movement — including the Marlins’ potential efforts to market other players and subsequent pivots to other targets for the Giants and Cardinals.
Somebody’s impatient
Wake me up when it’s over !
Worst case scenario for the Cards is probably Stanton going to SF, but would STL be better off if Stanton refuses to waive the NTC at all, potentially forcing MIA to deal Ozuna?
The cost for Ozuna would gut the Cardinals farm.
Hardly. Ozuna is only under control ’18 and ’19. FA after that. Plus Ozuna had a breakout year this year. Who’s to say that continues?
Well any team looking to acquire Ozuna are assuming that he’s the real deal. Why shouldn’t the Marlins think that as well?
Ozuna may cost more than Stanton
Much much MUCH more
Ozuna will cost more in prospects than Stanton. There is no doubt about that.
His .312/.376/.548/.924 with 37 HR and plus defense is extremely valuable and Ozuna doesn’t come with a massive salary requirement or a long-term commitment.
Imo ozuna is a great fit for stl and kill cards farm system if they also take gordon or ziegler
Don’t kid yourself. Ozuna wouldn’t cost all that much. Most don’t think he can sustain good numbers. Also he’s only under control for two more years.
One of my favorite things to read on MLBTR is that their team should trade for player A. Then they say player A isn’t as good as people think he is, so he shouldn’t cost that much in a trade. If the Cardinals don’t value Ozuna as highly as the Marlins or another trade partner, they aren’t getting him. If they want him, they’ll have to pay retail.
If the Marlins can’t trade Stanton but are trying to cut payroll, Ozuna will be one of the last to go. You trade the guys making the most. Trading Ozuna doesn’t go a long way to accomplishing that goal.
Ozuna is one of the top ten most valuable position players in the game, at least of the ones that aren’t on pre-arb contracts. He’s worth a huge amount.
Where did you see I said they should trade for him? There must be two of me.
Too 10? After one good year? Your hopes for the return are set way too high.
“Most don’t think he can sustain good numbers.”
Who are most? Though both BB Ref and Fangraphs project some regression they both project good numbers for Ozuna in 2018/ BB Ref has him at an .831 OPS while Steamer and Depth Charts projects his OPS at .859. BB Ref has him hitting 26 HRs, Steamer 28 HRs, and Depth Charts 31 HRs. Even at his projected arb raise to $10.9m he’s a bargain with surplus value. Who here is, in fact, kidding themselves.
Wrong
No it wouldn’t ! Not at all! They have a Top 10 farm system
and 1 player isn’t gonna “gut” it.
I don’t feel like not having the most expensive baseball player in America on the team is a huge problem.
I’d love for them to have a quality 40+ HR guy in the cleanup spot, but I’d sure rather it not be Stanton if they have to pay full price and ship the farm out to do it. Worst case to me is actually getting Stanton, trading two high quality young pitchers AND Grichuk or Piscotty and having a great 2018 and garbage 2019-2027. when players leave because the team isn’t going to bust the payroll to get extensions and new free agents to replace departing guys.
well i imagine we’d only be taking on 3 years of stantons contract in the hypothetical situation where we get him. in 2020 hed opt out so he can sign with the dodgers as a free agent. i imagine he’d leave money on the table to play where he really wanta to play
Yeah, I think the real worst case scenario is getting Stanton, he sucks to the point he doesn’t opt out, and you’re paying him for a decade to under-produce.
If he’d leave money in the table to play where he wants, why did he sign a 10 year deal with one of the worst franchises in baseball where he clearly does not want to be?
Flexibility and hedging bets, effectively. He signed away a couple of free agent years to have the option of guaranteeing himself a few hundred million at the back end – or re-enter the market if he doesn’t like where the franchise went, or saw more earning potential.
At some time or rather, Stanton probably wanted things to work in Miami. While things are pretty sour now, he probably hoped for a better outcome back then. But he gave himself options, whether it worked out or not.
If he’s worth it, he can get more money. If he’s not, he can guarantee himself money anyway. If he likes it in Miami and they’re competing, he can stay. If he doesn’t like it, and/or they suck, he can leave. That’s why he signed that contract – it covers everything.
Why are people acting as if Stanton demanded a trade? It was Jeter who made it clear of their intentions as soon as he came into power. Stanton is not at fault. He was asked to be traded.
because it has an opt out
“well i imagine we’d only be taking on 3 years of stantons contract…”
Counting on anyone to opt out is making a huge gamble. No one can predict what the situation will be 3 years down the road. Any team acquiring Stanton has to operate under the assumption that they’ll be on the hook for the entire contract. Counting on him opting out would be extremely foolish.
Same scenario applies to SF. One question would be how LAD payroll stacks up against luxury tax standards.
Worked with Bonds!
In the next 3 years his contract will be among the league average for above par players. And once Harper signs his $500M deal then even sub par players will be getting paydays in line with Stanton.
Your calculator must be broken if you think 29.5M per year will be league average for above par players. You need to define above par for one thing. I think the salaries are outrageous, and need to level out or decline, or the average Joe is going to priced out of going to games. If the owners had to totally fund their stadiums, I wouldn’t mind, but I hate subsidizing billionaire owners and millionaire players… don’t you?
It was a bit of an exaggeration. At how fast the salaries seem to be raising.
My girlfriend is always telling me how hard it is to tell when I send her a sarcastic text, and now I understand what she means…lol!
So your logic is, in efforts to reduce their financial commitments on a major level, the Marlins would be “forced” to trade the player set to earn somewhere between $3.5 mil (his 2017 salary) to MAYBE $20 over the next two years if they fail to move the contract of the guy who’s owed over $300 mil for the next 10 years? My guess is uhh uhh. It might make sense to move Ozuna at some point but it would NOT be for salary relief and teams should be prepared to pay a substantial cost in terms of prospects.
You’ve not been listening I don’t think. The Marlins have said, if they can’t trade Stanton, they’ll literally trade everyone else making any kind of money, to reduce payroll. So yes, moving Yellich, Ozuna, Gordon etc, will all happen, and yes, all for salary relief. And the fact that everyone knows that the Marlin’s are unloading salray, significantly decreases thier leverage in any type of deal. It will still cost prospects, but Ozuna has had ONE really good season, you’re not getting an entire farm for one good season, and 2 years of arbitration control.
Marlins will get a boatload for ozuna when they trade him.
It only decreases their leverage when dealing with a single team. In cases like this, where multiple teams compete, it shouldn’t have any effect at all.
Why?
And you’re not listening at all. No they didn’t say they were trading EVERYONE. They obviously want to move the more expensive veterans or pending free agents first. Trading Ozuna will NOT be a matter of salary relief. It will be a function of him being a short term asset they can use to get more prospects to rebuild. ANY team can easily afford to trade for Ozuna. And if they don’t get a haul they desire for him this winter then they can easily afford to carry his contract into the 2018 season and try to move him at the deadline..
My guess is that efforts to move Stanton, Prado, Gordon,Chen and Yelch will be the focus rather than moving Ozuna for less than the prospects they want.
So they definitely want to trade Yelich for salary relief even though he only makes $7mil next year (and is controllable through 2021 at reasonable rates), but there’s no way they’ll trade Ozuna for salary relief because he makes unknown arb amounts, coming off a breakout year, the next two seasons?
Big difference between earning your way into the playoffs off the strength of a 95 win season vs backing into it with 83 wins. They were not a good team last year.
Ozuna is a much better offensive player who has 2 years of arbitration left. Yelch is guaranteed $45 mil. One can estimate that Ozuna will earn considerably less than Yelch so yeah, efforts will be made to move Yelich first.
That being said, maybe I should clarify my meaning. Cardsfanatik was saying that Ozuna will be moved for salary relief. My contention was that if he’s traded it won’t be under the same motives as to move Stanton. Factor in he’s productive and cheap the the Marlins are under zero or little distress to move him and accept a lesser prospect package in exchange for the acquiring team assuming all financial responsibilities. So if there’s not money to be “eaten” then it’s more about the talent the Marlins want in return. Ozuna, and to make it clear, Yelich, are not sunken costs or negative value.
FWIW, MLBTR is projecting Ozuna will make nearly $11mil in 2018, so you have to assume $13-15 mil (or more) in 2019. If they see Yelich as a salary dump making $45 over 4 years, I don’t know why they wouldn’t see Ozuna as a salary dump if he’s going to make $24-26 mil over two years, particularly where Yelich will still have trade value before his salary rises above $10 million if he plays well.
If they don’t trade Stanton they’re going to have to find salary to cut somwhere and Ozuna makes as much sense as Yelich for salary relief. They aren’t going to “give” Ozuna away because they’ll be a robust trade market for him. But there’s a good chance he’s not even put on that market if Stanton is traded.
Let me make it clear, I was using the others guys words, but I do not view either Ozuna or Yelich as salary relief assets. However, Ozuna is GUARANTEED $45 mil which will probably be about $20 mil more than Ozuna will get in his last 2 years of arbitration. So,,,,I think the preference would be to get rid of the longer and more costly player first. While both guys are going to earn some coin, Ozuna is guaranteed much less and has more to offer offensively player.
All contracts are sunken costs and negative value when your team is operating at a loss, not playing meaningful games in October, and not drawing crowds.
I also don’t think either is a straight salary dump. But if they keep Ozuna for two years they’re going to pay him $25 mil. If they keep Yelich they’re going to pay him $16 over the next two years and could then trade him (if he performs). So I’m not convinced that they’d prefer to deal Yelich to save money.
I think you meant that YELICH was guaranteed $45 million, not Ozuna. I think they’d actually prefer to get rid of Ozuna who is just two years from free agency. They can always deal Yelich say in the winter of 2019 once his annual salary hits eight figures. He’s a bargain right now.
Who is Sal Ray?
Ozuna is projected to make $11 million in 2018.
mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/projected-arbitration-s…
I don’t see that one forces the other since Ozuna is still relatively cheap and young , maybe they push more to move gordon, prado and zeigler
My understanding is that they’re trying to move those guys in addition to Stanton anyway..
Viva El Birdos had an interesting take on Stanton’s choice, which bears repeating here. Pavlovic and everyone else have made clear that Stanton would definitely choose the Giants over the Cardinals, which begs the question – If Stanton is definitely not going to St. Louis, why hasn’t he told them yet?
Leverage, to get a better offer from the team he really wants, which we know is the Dodgers.
SF provides leverage, trying to get the Dodgers to up their offer and jump into the bidding more fully. St. Louis does not.
The more offers he’s got, the more leverage. Though arguably he gets more leverage from the Giants being interested, they all count. The Dodgers seem to be playing this very coyly, waiting to see whether Stanton is leaning towards accepting either of the other offers rather than bidding (especially against themselves). If it looks like he’s leaning against, the Dodgers have a much more open field. Everybody involved has to know all of this and are playing their best hand.
Assuming the Dodgers want Stanton (no guarantee), the Cardinals hurt his leverage more than help. If he’s “deciding between two teams, but waiting for the Dodgers”, they can sit it out for ages. If he’s “going to the Giants, having told the Cardinals no”, Dodgers have their hand forced.
This is a case where “more” is most definitely not “better”. So long as he is “still deciding”, the Dodgers have the strongest hand. Once he starts saying “no” to some – but not all-, the Dodgers’ leverage disappears.
Keep in mind that he’s not a free agent and that his contract is pre-determined. He could care less what prospects the Marlins he gets. He has no leverage to force either team to up the ante on their offer.
My guess is, they negotiated with the each team and they notified Stanton which packages they would accept and then allowed him to decide which team he wants to play
@southbeachbully Exactly. You hit it right in the bullseye.
His leverage is exercising his no-trade clause. He can use it in the interest of a team where he’d want to go offering the Marlins enough for them to make the trade. More teams making offers to the Marlins helps him get to where he wants to be. Leverage can never be negative.
You can certainly overplay your hand though.
Stanton doesn’t have that much leverage, in that he can’t force a trade. He can only go to the Dodgers if the Marlins are amenable to an offer.
If Stanton overplays his leverage here and blocks a trade to St. Louis or San Francisco, he could be stuck in Miami.
Sure, he could find himself still in Miami, maybe for another season, possibly not even that long, because the Marlins want him moved. But if he accepts a trade to a team where he’d rather not be, he could be stuck there for three years or more because they might not be half as keen to trade him. We’d don’t know a whole lot about what is happening in the player’s mind, but geography and playing for a team that isn’t rebuilding both seem to be important criteria.
I believe you’re looking at this through the wrong lens, and it’s tainting your view. You want Stanton in L.A. for the lowest return possible.
I believe Stanton wants to be in L.A. Here’s where you go wrong though: Exercising his no-trade clause with regards to St. Louis does increase the likelihood he goes to L.A. Stringing the Cardinals along does not. The Dodgers are not more likely to up their bid with more teams in the race. Why should they? Until we hear otherwise, Stanton isn’t inclined to go anywhere else.
Rejecting a trade to St. Louis, while not rejecting the Giants, would indicate that the Giants, and not L.A., was the front runner. If L.A. wants him at that point, they would need to offer the Marlins enough to get a yes.
No, keeping the Cards in does not provide Stanton leverage. Keeping the Giants in does. Cards being in provides the Dodgers leverage, but that doesn’t help Stanton, if his aim is to go there. Miami still gets a vote, and Stanton needs LA to increase their offer, not decrease it.
There’s really only two reasonable explanations: if the Dodgers fall through, he hasn’t yet decided between SF and StL, or StL is the security blanket, and SF is the only leverage team.
Where you go wrong is in thinking I “want” something other than to piece the puzzle together. The rest of your argument is just kind of strange since it seems to be based on the odd assumption that his talk to the Cardinals is nothing but a transparent ruse that everybody sees through, except the Cardinals.
For the record I’d have mixed emotions about Stanton coming to LA if only because it could complicate retaining Kershaw, a player who I think is a bigger part of the Dodgers than Stanton could ever be.
You’ve talked yourself in a circle. Everyone seems to believe the Cardinals are out (or at least those “insiders” posting). If so, that is the ruse you refer to.
I contend that if so, the Cardinals should already know they are out, and they don’t. Leverage simply isn’t the reason why, since the Cardinals being in gives leverage to the Dodgers, but not Stanton (it doesn’t force the Dodgers hand).
So I’ll ask again – if the Cardinals are out (read this and every other “expert” twitter post), why haven’t they been told?
My argument is completely straightforward while your argument is becoming downright bizarre. The Cards are clearly not out. If they make the Marlins an offer they’d accept, it’s up to the player to decide if he will stay or go. Then it’s also up to the Dodgers to make the Marlins an offer in the same neighborhood, assuming they want him. The Card’s offer will be the benchmark.
Cynical POV here. Could also be that SF, as rival to LAD, are being used to levy a deal from LAD when STL is real desired destination between SF and STL.
If Stanton chooses SF over StL, then he cares more about playing close to home, than he does winning. SF won’t win this year, even with Stanton. One guy doesn’t fix 40 games out. The Giants don’t have a farm system, and will be max payroll if they take on Stanton’s contract. I love all this west coast bias though. I get so sick of hearing about how great the “coast teams” are. Its funny that LA has a 200 million dollar payroll every year, and still can’t win a WS. The Cardinal’s will be fine with or without Stanton tbh. They always find a way. The last couple years have been kinda tough, but Mo is tired of not getting to the post season. Something will get done. Just hoping its not Hosmer. Unless they can add him for around 130 million.
Facts…I’m assuming the all the remaining teams have already agreed to what players would go to Miami if Stanton approves of a team.
Therefor, Stanton has no leverage to force 1 team to step up their offer for Miami’s benefit. His contract is already negotiated. My guess is, it’s more about selling Stanton on the future plans of the team in terms of personnel and being competitive going fwd, especially since both teams are coming off of a bad non-competitive year.
^This. Stanton has the entire off-season to live wherever he wants to. If he wants to win he will go to STL. They have better farm system, more money to spend, better history, and are in a better position to be in contention next year. Makes me wonder if Matheny’s style has anything to do with it. If it were LaRusa would deal be done?
It’s cynical to know that Stanton grew up in LA and has already said he prefers to play on the coast?
Fun with language.
The Cardinals were competing for a playoff spot up until the last week of the season. Not sure how that is considered non-competitive?
The Cardinal’s weren’t 40 games out. They were nine games out, and 3 back of the wild card. The Cardinal’s were competitive all year. The Giant’s were not.
Nice regurgitation, we’ve never heard that before. Here we are, listening to a salty Cards fan blather about things he thinks he knows about. I suppose in a previous conversation you educated everyone in the room on how the Giants have no one in their Farm system and the Marlins would never make the trade. Give it a rest, you’re making a fool out of yourself.
Big difference between earning your way into the playoffs off the strength of a 95 win season vs backing into it with 83 wins. They were not a good team last year.
When was the last time the Cards beat the Giants to go to a World Series? I appreciate your fandom, but the Giants aren’t going to lose 98 games again this season…they will be above .500. Question will be how far above .500 and those additional wins mean more losses for the rest of NL West. Giants will be much better this year weather they get Stanton or not. Don’t be a hater!
Glad to see you’ve got that crystal ball in working order
Can you let us know who’s winning the Super Bowl this year as well?
No, the Dodgers have not agreed to either the players or the amount of money the Marline must send with Stanton to make the deal The Marlins are trying to squeeze more from LAD before accepting the deal that Stanton prefers. Marlins have acceptable offers from both Giants and Cards, which is why both teams have been authorized to speak with Stanton–to try and convince him to wave NTC. So far, he has not agreed–hoping that LAD and Marlins will agree on terms.
From Stanton’s stand point, wouldn’t the Cardinals be negative leverage? If the Dodgers knew he was 100% going to SF, I would think that would make them more likely to jump in. STL seems more like leverage for Miami.
You are right in the fact that if LAD knew he was going to SF, then LAD would be more likely to jump in. Hence why SF is more likely to be pushed as desired destination for leverage, when it may not be.
I’m not sure they would care quite honestly. If they want Stanton they can literally say screw it and throw it all out the window. Granted I don’t think they’d operate like that. If they don’t want to touch Stanton and his contract, well whether it’s the giants or not they aren’t going to jump in just to block Stanton. That’s not the way this FO thinks or operates. What it comes down to honestly is whether management wants to touch that contract, and whether the FO wants to handcuff themselves this year. My gut says they don’t and the won’t. I think SF is more worried about the Dodgers jumping in than the Dodgers about SF potentially landing him. A potential high power high K guy isn’t really the most crucial need on this roster. I could see the Dodgers saying nope it’s ok and targeting a guy like Cutch at the deadline. STL has other potential impact options they could shift to. The Dodgers really could gain relative important impact elsewhere while fortifying the pen. The more and more I think about Stanton is more of a dire need for SF and not so much STL or LA.
And Stanton still doens’t fix the Giants. But you’re right. St.L will be ok with or without him, as will LA. Giant’s I feel won’t be good with or without him.
nicely articulated!
It will be interesting to see if the Dodgers jump in on Stanton, or do they go after Harper next year.
Ppl are confusing this situation. It’s to my understanding that the Marlins have already negotiated with the Cards and Giants on what package of players they will get in return for Stanton. At this point, there is no more negotiating to be done, The Dodgers seem as if they don’t want to bring in another large contract given that they are looking at a 45% lux tax this coming season.
Stanton’s contract is already predetermined. He’s not allowed to change it up. My guess is that all the conversations pertain to the city and the perspective teams plans to contend long term.
He can change it if both he and his team agree to it.
And the PA approves it. There’s not much he can change concerning his contract beyond a team agreeing to allow him to move up his opt out.
I would be hugely surprised if Stanton did not waive his NTC. Why on this earth would Stanton want to stay with the Marlins. Besides even waiving his no trade clause he can opt-out of his deal after the 2020 season anyway. Three years with either a SF or St. L team has to be better than even 1 year with the Marlins and their dog and pony show.
Southern FL is a really nice place to live when you are extremely wealthy.
Yeppers. Better beaches than the SF, for sure, and isn’t there no state income tax in Florida?
Good point about state income tax. Stanton would be in the 13% category, if he goes to CA.
Who cares? You don’t have to live in the city you play. Why does this keep getting brought up?
Because it’s still their home for half of the year. It’s not too practical to play a game until 11pm in Miami, take a flight “home” to LA, then be back at the park in Miami by noon the next day. We are all aware that they can move during the off-season, but if you think these guys don’t care about their families, school systems, social lives, etc. during the season then you should remind yourself that these guys are human beings, not just names and stats on a piece of paper.
Its the no state income tax.
You pay state taxes on the % of your salary played in the state.
Play for the Marlins, you have no state income tax on your contract for half of your games, depending on road games vs the Rays.
MLB players pay state income taxes in everystate they play(if they have a state income tax)
Play 3 games in Ohio this year you pay taxes on 3/162 fo your contract in Ohio ect..
What if LA throws a really low ball offer at Miami and Stanton says “I’ll only approve a trade to LA”????
They keep Stanton and trade everyone else.
You mean like just make Stanton play all 9 positions on the field? hehehe
When I was 6, we went to dinner for my sister’s birthday. She wanted spaghetti. I wanted a hot dog. They don’t serve hot dogs at Italian restaurants. I kicked and screamed and wanted a hot dog.
My father gave me a famous speech, to which I’ll never forget. “Son, you can have spaghetti or lasagna, or anything they sell at this restaurant. They do not have hot dogs. You won’t be able to eat one here.”
Moral of the story: Stanton can kick and scream and demand to play in LA all he wants, but if the Marlins don’t like what LA has to offer, it won’t be an option for Stanton.
You will never forget your father telling you the restaurant did not have hot dogs? You and your father must have had some deep philosophical discussions.
It’s pretty clear that’s exactly what they have done.
Who cares anymore. He is the modern day Lebron James and I am taking my talents to South Beach. Enough
Except for the fact that Lebron was a free agent and Stanton is currently under contract……
Absolutely not. He’s not a free agent and did not ask to be traded until Jeter made it clear that they were going to rebuild and wanted to move his contract.; :Let’s not make Stanton out to be the bad guy or diva,
Truth
He’s not even asking to be traded, they told him they are looking to trade him and he just gave his preferences to where he’s like to go which he has every right to do since he signed a contract with a full no trade clause. Not even close to what Lebron did.
You’re making a ridiculous assumption.
Utilizing a no trade clause because the team gave it to him doesn’t make him LeBron James or a diva.
What a giant step in can be.
Ahhh, anxious for that final piece of the puzzle. It’s all coming together whuahaha whuahaha whuahahahahahahahaha
Stanton wants to really be in LA, not San Fran. LA is still a 5 and 1/2 hour drive from SF, probably a 2 hour flight, and LA is a 4 hour flight from St. Louis, with gaining 2 hrs LA time. The ball is definitely in his court, but imo, just adding Stanton to the Giants is not going to take them from last place to first. That is the toughest division in baseball imho.
Last year it was. A couple years ago, it was the NL Central with three teams over 97 wins. There was a time when it was the AL East, and the AL Central. It is fluid.
It’s fluid but I think the West looks like it will be tougher over the next 3 years.
Who said they were only adding Stanton?
his contract.
I don’t think it’s entirely in Stanton’s court because the marlins can always shift course and keep him, while dumping ozuna/Ziegler/Gordon/prado.
This. And they can trade Stanton mid-season or next off-season or whenever.
I live in NJ and the drive to Orlando is 16 hrs and 2 hour flight. Flight from SF to LA is more like 35-45 min
Yep.
I would love for this to be over with and the Othani signing soon. Not sure if it it’ll open up the free agency and trade market but it does feel like it will. This has been a historically slow start to the offseason. I know, I know, gonna hear people say most deals happen during the winter meeting or shortly after but this still has been a really slow offseason as far as signings go and trades. Even minor league deals are down this offseason compared to recent years. Maybe I’m impatient but I just wanna see who does what and who goes where already lol. Really love this time of year..got Basketball (even though my team sucks), football (again even though my team sucks lol) and Baseball offseason but so far Baseball offseason has disappointed in my eyes. Hope that picks up once these two guys are off the market and the the winter meetings kick off.
Giancarlo Stanton is a snack ngl
Its clear the Dodgers want to acquire Stanton at their cost in terms of prospects. Don’t think the money would be an issue if they really wanted to acquire him. The thing is, Stl and Sf made huge offers from their teams perspective, some combination of their top four prospects, 250 mil salary relief from sf and some combination of Wacha/Alcantara/Martinez plus even more salary relief from STL… It’s basically a game right now. Marlins don’t HAVE to trade him to LAD with better offers out there; either Stanton or the Marlins will get what they want in the end.
It isn’t clear that the Dodgers are even involved whatsoever.
I still am trying to understand why the Cardinals pushed this hard to get him if it’s true that he would indeed reject a trade to them, cuz everyone that I’ve heard talk about this says there’s no chance the Cards will get him.
If you don’t ask, the answer is always no.
How come the Mariners are not interested in Stanton. They have to have some good prospects somewhere.
Racism
Sadly, there is racism everywhere !
I agree they should be in, but there are too many other factors. But, I think he’d be a long term solution to replace Cruz, and they could even trade Cruz to one of those teams wanting to production without the years that Stanton and JD would require.
However, Cruz is also like best friends with Cano, so I can’t imagine that would sit well. Add the money factor, and it isn’t quite a perfect fit. I’d love to see him in Seattle.
“How come the Mariners are not interested in Stanton.”
Well I’m sure they would be interested if they had the payroll to accommodate Stanton’s contract. But they don’t. The quality of the Mariners prospects are irrelevant. It’s been well documented that that the Marlins are prioritizing money shed from the payroll over the prospect return. The only reason why it’s down to SF and StL, and maybe LA, if he is n fact traded, is that all 3 can afford to take on most of the $295m remaining ob the contract.
In the end, either Stanton or the Marlins will blink. Stanton wants LAD. Marlins want the best offer (team takes most/all of contract and gives Marlins some prospects as cover).
Both Marlins and Stanton want a deal. Dodger offer is clearly less than Giants offer, which is why Giants have been authorized to talk with the player. Essentially, Marlins have said yes to Giants offer; but can’t get a yes from Stanton to waive NTC. Marlins’ pressure on Stanton (and LAD) is that they could keep him and force him to play where he no longer wants to be.
Stanton knows that Dodgers have made an offer. By refusing to agree to waive NTC with Giants (or Cards); he puts pressure on Marlins.
So, who blinks?
I’d be willing to bet the Cards are willing to take Ozuna or Yelich and eat another contract or two (in return for a lesser prospect haul), if they don’t get Stanton. Point being, I think MIA already has pieces of a back-up plan ready to go to shed salary, so Stanton is risking the possibility that he plays out the next 3 (or more) years for a hollowed out Marlins cub.
That makes no sense. Ozuna and Yelich are two of the most tradeable assets. You don’t stick salary dumps on them and dilute their value. You maximize those assets. They can always dump Gordon, trade Straily, eat some money on Ziegler, and pay down Tazawa. They can get to that line while not compromising the return on two of their most valuable trade chips.
Stanton.
The beautiful thing about a no-trade clause is the player can pick where he gets traded to.
But he can’t force the Dodgers to make an offer, nor can he force the Marlins to accept said offer. If Stanton wants out of Miami, at this point, it seems his ticket ends in either St. Louis or San Francisco.
Am I the only person who thinks Jeter seems pretty greasy so far?, as an exec
If the Dodgers do eventually win the Stanton lottery, who do the Marlins get in return? Anyone have a guess?
It all depends on how much money the Marlins will eat.
Id be excited to get Stanton for my team, but if be nervous as heck about that injury history.. Not to mention the prospects and payroll suction to get him. Seems like a big gamble, for any team other than the Dodgers. Cards should stay away, they should’ve learned from Pujouls and the Giants should be running the other way
“Learned from Pujols?” Huh? Actually the contract Pujols signed with the Cardinals was very favorable towards the team.
The fact that the dodgers have held talks leads me to believe that they are intrested. I believe stanton has already told marlins im staying or going to dodgers, this cards giants nonsense is to try and drive the dodgers to make a bad trade to avoid a potential division rivial from getting him. Dodgers will get him once they dont get ohtani.
Stanton knows Dodgers want him–just on their terms. He is in control. My sense is that as long as Stanton does not panic, Marlins will be forced to take “half a loaf” from LAD and move on.
No they don’t. They can trade other guys and hit their payroll targets that way. Marlins are not backed into a corner at all. They’re gonna stink this year anyway, and whether they stink because Stanton’s gone or because he’s the only good player left, is irrelevant. In fact, the second scenario is better because Yelich and Ozuna are losing value fast (as they get closer to free agency). Stanton’s may actually be increasing, as more dollars come off his contract.
I don’t see that, at worst the Marlins get some money next year!
The Dodgers don’t want to take on more salary at this point, If Miami’s primary goal is to shed salary, I can’t see them accepting an offer from the Dodgers unless they’re sending back at least Cody Bellinger and Julio Urias (which you know ain’t gonna happen). Stanton may have leverage with his no trade clause but Miami still has to agree to the deal too.
Buster Olney mentioned the Marlins taking back Gonzalez and/or Kazmir because the Dodgers don’t want to add payroll in 2018. He thinks eventually the Marlins will have to do that. Since that doesn’t accomplish the Marlins’ goal I don’t see why they would.
They seem to be far enough along on both the Marlins with the Dodgers and the Marlins with the Giants to turn back now. I say they have a deal in a week.
Stanton will okay the trade once the Giants get Ohtani. Seems more convenient to introduce them both at the same news conference.
Sipping that holiday egg nog a bit early aren’t you?
I still find it funny that people think Stanton has an “LA or bust” stance when he signed a 13 year deal for a team in FL. Why would he sign for the longest contract term in the modern day of baseball if his only worthwhile destination was southern California? Where is the logic in that when he could have just waited 2 years (he would have been a FA after the 2016 season)?
Well I don’t know if it’s LA or bust, but as to the question of why? Well I’m guessing that living in South Beach is quite an attractive location for a single professional ball player, and a 325M dollar contract might have something to do with it. He never said he wanted to leave Miami. He also seems to genuinely love Miami. So logically if he’s not wanted in Miami, maybe he is LA or bust. It doesn’t make it logically flawed as the dynamics have completely shifted.
We are also taking about generational money. South beach, 325M guaranteed, a young offensive core, a young promising ace type pitcher. Miami had the makings of contender just never the makings of a team run well and the death of Fernandez further complicated things.
Because they offered Stanton, who is young a ridiculous amount of guaranteed money with an opt. Who the hell wouldn’t accept that?
Who cares anymore
What is very clear here is that Giants can do nothing but wait–they are the only actor in this play who has delivered all their lines. Stanton, LAD and Marlins can all make additional decisions that will influence/change the outcome. Giants are powerless.
Let Stanton go to the West Coast. He’s not worth all of this. The Cards need to go after multiple FA and make 1 trade and they will be a better team than just getting Stanton. Sign Nicasio, Holland, Davis & Hosmer &. a blockbuster trade with the Rays for Archer, Odorozzi, Longoria.
Carpenter 2nd
Fowler LF
Hosmer 1st
Pham CF
Longoria 3rd
DeJong SS
Grichuk RF
Molina C
Carlos Martinez
Chris Archer
Luke Weaver
Jake Odorozzi
Adam Wainwright
Davis
Holland
Nicasio
and fill out the rest of the pen.
Pipe dream, but damn that would be pretty nice.
I’m tired of searching my name and finding your name…will you change yours?
I’m kinda tired of the relatively big free agent signings…I knew Leake was a bad idea…now we’re stuck with a centerfielder that can’t play center. Cards used to be better at finding the diamond in the rough, now they throw 80 million at someone they know is average. By the way, Girsch kind of looks like elf on the shelf
Why not search “duncan” or “fan”?
That’s a pipe dream.
But I’d also rather seem them spend the money on stacking the pen and trading for Abreu to play 1st.
Right now it is between the Giants and Dodgers. The Dodgers are in no rush to make a competitive offer given that they don’t really need Stanton and that if Stanton really wants to go there he will just reject SF. He could very well be having these meeting just to push the Dodgers along. If Stanton agrees to go to San Fran than the Dodgers will know that they would have had to give up or take on more than they wanted to.
There is absolutely no sense in the Dodgers getting involved other than showing interest at this juncture. Given that Stanton would go there in a heartbeat, they are the ones actually holding all the cards if they want him.
I know SF fans will not be happy with the idea of using them as bait to get the Dodgers involved, but it’s very hard for me to imagine Stanton actually going to SF right now, given the 98 loss season a year ago. It’s a win win for Stanton and worst case he spends one more year in Miami.
dude your logic really makes no sense, there isn’t any reason for him to get engaged if it isn’t a possibility, the dodgers know he would like to be a dodger, they also know they don’t want to take on his contract if it means losing a bunch of their young guys when they hit arb and not making an offer to kershaw – just because the giants sucked hard last year it doesn’t mean that there isn’t an org there that recently won 3 rings and it is a great park to play in in general.
Except all indications are that it is not between the Giants and the Dodgers, but thanks for playing.
I’d like to see the Giants NOT get Giancarlo Staton this off-season but, rather, sign Manny Machado next off-season.. OFs are easier to come by and there are many options that won’t financially wreck the team for the next 15 years. Stanton gets hurt allot and that pattern often gets worse with age.
Giancarlo who??
He’s a baseball player, duh! He’s the Rich mans Chris Davis. Get it…”Rich” hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe
That’s your contribution?
I truly believe that Jose Fernandez death began to send Stanton’s breaking point over the edge.
Yeah, José was an elite pitcher, a big part of the community, and a clubhouse guy.
I love how many people on here keep saying Stanton is in control. The marlins are essentially in control. THEY DO NOT HAVE TO TRADE HIM IF THE DEAL DOES NOT SUIT THEM. If they feel the Cardinals made the best offer (which as of now if sounds like it by sending good prospect and talking all the salary). The marlins can simply tell him “either you take this deal and have a chance to make the playoffs each year for the next three years till you opt out. Or, you stay here and we sell everyone around you and you play with an essentially AAA team full of league minimums. THAT IS YOUR CHOICE! You have until Friday to decide”. Kind of thing. They have that option. Everyone keeps talking about the dodgers. They can not take on his full salary as the cardinals have offered and stay under the luxury tax. Unless they in turn sell off others. If they do not offer a deal that fits for the Marlins they DO NOT have to accept. The Dodgers don’t have total control and they ability to low ball them
So wrong! Let’s see how long a GM lasts after placing a 300m fan favorite asset in the minors. He would his clubhouse, fans and job in less two bus trips in minors for the player. Then the players association would be all up their ass!
When the team signed the contract they gave the power to the player. He chooses if he wants to go or not first then the team can start negotiating terms of the agreement.
Not a huge fan of many of the MLB contracts and escalating ticket prices at our stadiums.
I didn’t say they would send him to the minors. To keep him and make their needed payroll they will only be able to surround him with AAA talent at league minimum for the most part.
They can also get to that $90 million mark by trading Ozuna, Bour, Straily, eating $6-8 million on Prado, and trading him, eating half of Ziegler’s contract, and trading him, and pretty much salary dumping Dee Gordon,eating maybe $2-3 million per…
fangraphs.com/blogs/the-dodgers-control-the-gianca…
John Weaver sorry but you are an idiot
I have been saying for two weeks the Cardinals should walk away from this, i think it even more now. Stanton was NEVER coming to St.Louis. The Marlins have played them all along b/c if there is only one bidder his value goes Waaaay down. If i am Girsch i am mad about this too and would not deal with Miami at all. The only guys i would want are Ozuna and Gordon and unless Gordon can play CF he is useless to us. I would pivot to Tampa (Longoria and Colome) or Baltimore (Davis and BP help). Maybe go all in on bullpen arms and speed. Kansas City did pretty well with that a couple of years ago. Maybe try to get Votto out of Cincy. Break the bank for Votto and Iglesias. No one needs young pitching more than the Reds. Votto and C.Davis are lefties. I also really like Bradley in Boston who has been rumored on the block for the right pieces. Fowler would be a beast in Boston IMo. Carpenter too. I promise you the Cardinals are being played here, you can’t tell me Miami doesn’t know if he will wave his NTC by now. That is pure garbage. It has all the markings.
Is it more about where Stanton agrees to go and less about the Marlins trying to leverage other teams at this point?
At some point perhaps the Giants will come to the conclusion that J.D. Martinez + Heliot Ramos + Chris Shaw + Tyler Beede + maybe Christian Arroyo > Giancarlo Stanton.
I think maybe they should go Lorenzo Cain, bullpen help, maybe something at 3b
What if, just maybe, SF gets Stanton and Ohtani…who predicted that when the offseason began
though we will never know what was said between Stanton and the cardinals I find it very odd that not only is St Louis still in the race for Stanton despite most people saying he wouldn’t accept a trade to STL but that they made a serious offer that tops SF and that hardly anything has been said about the meeting between St Louis and Stanton or anything about St Louis’s pursuit of Stanton compared to SF
I personally believe it is the media trying to sway his decision. They want him in San Fran for the media converse. Let’s keep in mind that he may have grown up in LA. But he idolized McGwire as a kid and McGwire talked up St. Louis.
St.L is only insurance in case SF signs someone else and the Dodgers aren’t interested. No reason to tell St.L “no” at this point.
Stanton is waiting for Ohtani to decide. If Ohtani chooses SF, so does Stanton. If Ohtani chooses another West Coast team Stanton stays in Miami or reluctantly goes to STL. This from a STL fan.
My question is why would stanton want to go to a pitcher friendly ball park
He could get like 70+ home runs in a hitters park(colorado, ny, boston, etc)
Everyone’s in a hurry because we’re impatient fans but Stanton, marlins cardinals, giants and dodgers have zero reason to be in a hurry
Giants and Cardinals do have a reason. They can’t do anything else until there is a decision on Stanton. Stanton is the only one who doesn’t have to rush. He will likely hold on until he is absolutely sure the Dodgers will not make a play for him.
I’d rather see the Giants hang onto Arroyo, Beede and especially Ramos, maybe chase JD, trade for Hamilton, sign Morrow and another arm for the pen, then draft strong.
Stanton has played 150+ twice in his career. Is he going to get healthier as he ages? If they have to get him I’d rather include Panic, subtract Ramos and add Gordon from their side. No offense to Panic. He’s great but between his back and Giants needing a leadoff hitter, it makes sense.