The Twins have yet to speak to Brian Dozier about a contract extension, the second baseman tells Sid Hartman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. With Dozier entering the last season of his contract, the two sides have had “zero conversations about after next year,” Dozier said.
The lack of negotiations isn’t necessarily a surprise at this point in the offseason, of course, as most teams generally handle focus on signings, trade talks, and arbitration cases before turning their attention to in-house extensions. (This winter’s particularly-stalled free agent market could even delay extension business later into Spring Training than usual for some clubs.) Beyond Dozier, the Twins also have Joe Mauer and Eduardo Escobar slated to hit the open market after the 2018 season, with Ervin Santana and Fernando Rodney also candidates for free agency depending on club options.
Still, Dozier stands out as Minnesota’s top impending free agent priority, though the idea of an extension between the two sides (or even Dozier still being in a Twins uniform entering 2018) seemed far-fetched at this point last year. Dozier has long been the subject of trade rumors, and at one point in the 2016-17 offseason seemed to be on the verge of being dealt to the Dodgers. Even last summer, Dozier was one of several Twins veterans the team was weighing as trade chips, though Minnesota eventually rebounded to capture a berth in the AL Wild Card game.
Last season’s surprising success changed the equation for the Twins, who are now exploring ways to build around its young core of talent in the hopes of contending again next year. As such, keeping Dozier now looks like it could be a possibility, particularly since Minnesota has quite a bit of payroll flexibility beyond the 2018 season. (Of course, the Twins might add to those future commitments in a significant way this offseason should they land a top free agent pitcher.)
Dozier is finishing up a previous extension with the Twins, a four-year/$20MM deal that covered his final pre-arbitration season and his three years of arbitration eligibility. That contract ended up being a nice bargain for the Twins through Dozier’s arb years, as he has continued to perform as one of the game’s best second basemen, particularly over the last two seasons. Dozier has hit .269/.349/.521 with 76 homers and 34 steals (out of 43 chances) over 1396 PA since the start of the 2016 season, accumulating 10.9 fWAR over that period. From 2014-17, Dozier has been worth 18.8 fWAR, a total topped by only 13 other position players in all of baseball.
Dozier turns 31 in May, so an extension carries some risk as it would be covering a potential decline period as he leaves his prime. The lack of return on the Twins’ extensions for Mauer and Phil Hughes could also make the team wary about another long-term deal. On the flip side, Dozier has been a durable player, and 2017 was his most polished season yet as a hitter, with Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan noting Dozier’s increased success at hitting to the opposite field.
In his preview of the Twins’ offseason, MLBTR’s Steve Adams cited Daniel Murphy’s three-year, $37.5MM deal with the Nationals or Justin Turner’s four-year, $64MM Dodgers contract as potential talking points for a Dozier extension, with Turner’s deal standing out as the better comparable. One interesting wrinkle could be the fact that, without an extension, Dozier would be competing with several other superstar players in the very crowded 2018-19 free agent class. Dozier would have an advantage, however, as the clear top option on the second base market.
If an extension isn’t worked out, the Twins will likely explore trading Dozier at the deadline if the team falls out of contention. For now, however, it looks like the Twins aren’t moving the second baseman, which is something Dozier appreciates after so much past speculation. “It’s kind of funny how winning can change a lot of different things as far as offseason trade talks,” Dozier said. “I recognize it’s a business. We all do. But it has been pretty relieving not hearing my name every single day about where I might be traded. That’s a good thing.”
Yeah he gone
You heard it here first baseball fans!
Gotta design the Bri-bull Dozier
Good Time To Trade Him……….
Dodgers will take him if they dont ask for bellinger again
Bellinger: 4.2 WAR
Dozier: 4.4 WAR
Lose the attitude
Well bellinger is far cheaper and more controllable so a much better current asset… but I agree with your premise. He acts like the twins were being unreasonable to ask for more than DeLeon… and Deleon had a terrible 2017, and is by no means a sure thing. Twins were absolutely right to ask for more
I always laugh at what gets down voted. I think it’s a pretty obvious and unanimous thought that dozier for Deleon would have been bad…
It wouldn’t have been just DeLeon for one and for two, it’s still a little early to say that DeLeon is a bust after an injury plagued first season in Tampa Bay
Might as well flip him while he has value.
Disagree, Minnesota can compete for a WC. If they suck in the first half, they can flip him, but no reason right now
^this
Right lol
He will end up on the Yankees
Perfect fit for the cardinals & cheaper than Donaldson. Wong & mid tier prospects Schrock & Hicks could work.
No thanks
Absolutely not. If the twins wouldn’t trade him for Deleon, who was being considered a top prospect in the game, they’re not gonna trade him for a couple mid level guys.
If Murphy keeps hitting like he is, he might be the best second baseman on the market despite being older.
Actually, I take that back. Dozier defense is way better
While I agree Dozier is better due to defense (something that doesn’t age well), I also thought the clearly the best second baseman on the market comment was a little strange considering Murphy’s OPS has been like .100 points higher the past two seasons.
You can also look at DJ LeMahieu. He had 8.1 rWar the past two seasons to 10.9 to Dozier and is playing two years younger than him (though really only a year younger.)
If Dozier has a mediocre year and either of those guys has a great year I don’t think it is a given that he will get the better contract.
Give him 64-70 over 4 with a mutual option or something. He is the team leader. He’s what the twins lost in Cuddy. I think they hoped Mauer would be that guy, but he never did.
Dozier gets streaky but who cares when a guy is the decision maker in so many games.
Yeah I’m a fan, but he is key to the twins success. On both sides of the ball, he is busting his butt
Could not agree more.
Probably have to give an opt out after 2020.
Well said Pablo. And that’s probably a fair deal for both sides. He’s definitely been a leader. One thing I like about him is when he slumps offensively (and he slumps) he still has the same attitude as when things are going well. This guy works his tail off. He’s the epitome of “Twins baseball”. I don’t really see the lack of talks as a sign that they won’t get something done. Would be a mistake to send him packing. And there’s zero chance he gets moved now. At deadline maybe but he will at very least start the year in a Twins uni.
Angels gonna make a run at him in free agency next year.
twins please bring him back
Made a list hear of infielder contracts the past few years, basically as many guys as I could think of who signed to be starting 2B, SS, or 3B (though I guess a couple signed to play OF.)
It is the player, his rWar over the three years leading up to free agency, his age in his first FA year, whether he had a QO attached, if he had a good bad or standard year leading up to FA, and what he ended up being guaranteed. I included next year’s FAs (averaging their past two years to invent what they will do this year, I know not very scientific.)
Based on this, I think Dozier would be silly to take an extension in the Turner range, That will probably be around his floor in FA, and he could build on that total substantially in FA.
Cano – 22.0 (31) QO, standard year – $240m
Donaldson – 18.5 (32), down year –
Dozier – 16.3 (32) QO, standard year –
Machado – 15.3 (26) QO, standard year –
Headley – 13.2 (31) no QO, standard year – $52m
Turner – 13.2 (32) QO, up year – $64m
LeMahieu – 12.1 (30), QO, up year –
Zobrist – 11.9 (35), no QO, down year – $56m
Frazier – 10.8 (32), no QO, standard year –
Hardy – 10.5 (32) no QO, standard year – $40m (extension)
Prado – 10.3 (33) no QO, standard year – $40m (extension)
H Ramirez – 10.2 (31) QO, standard year – $88m
Murphy – 10.1 (34) no QO, up year, –
Uribe – 10.0 (37) no QO, down year – $4m
Kendrick – 9.9 (32) QO, down year – $20m
Desmond – 9.5 (30) QO, down year – $8m
Cozart – 8.9 (32) no QO, up year – $39m
Walker – 8.3 (31) QO, down year – $17m (QO)
Sandoval – 7.8 (28) QO, standard year – $95m
Utley – 7.7 (37) no QO, down year – $7m
Moustakis – 6.9 (29). QO, standard year –
A Ramirez – 6.9 (34) no QO, down year – $3m
Walker – 6.8 (32) no QO, down year –
Valbuena – 6.3 (31) no QO, up year – $15m
A Cabrera – 5.3 (29) no QO, down year – $8m
Murphy – 5.1 (31) QO, standard year – $39m
Lowrie – 5.0 (31) no QO, down year – $23m
Drew – 4.7 (31) QO, standard year – $10m
A Cabrera – 3.7 (30) no QO, down year – $18m
Freese – 3.3 (33) no QO, up year – $3m
Drew – 2.5 (32) no QO, negative year – $5m
Dozier is a good example of why Joel Sherman’s piece suggesting FA after 4 years is correct. Player coming up at 24-25 or having his clock manipulated by teams with weeks or months-long delays when he is clearly ready (think Longoria, Bryant), as is common now, ends up being first eligible for FA at 30-31. At this point, they’re often declared a “declining asset” by front offices & sabremetricians alike. So they’re never a FA in their prime, even if they weren’t a late bloomer. This shouldn’t be the case.