We have been covering Shohei Otani here at MLBTR since his first potential move to the majors — back in 2012, when he was a teenager. At that time, Ohtani decided to remain in Japan. Though an eventual posting always seemed likely, barriers arose along the way that made it seem he’d remain there a while longer, but the 23-year-old phenom is now well down the road of finally coming to North America to play at the game’s highest level. And now that he has narrowed his list of potential teams, we finally have an idea of where he might land.
With sit-down discussions just getting underway between Ohtani and his seven suitors, it seems an opportune time to get predictions from the MLBTR readership. It’s a fun exercise, nothing more, since at this point we still have no real idea what the decision will turn on.
Even if Ohtani himself has an inkling, he’s also surely waiting to see how he hits it off with each team. Of course, his list of possibilities does come with a few clues. He’s obviously inclined to play on the west coast, as all but two of the remaining teams are sited in states bordering the Pacific Ocean. Perhaps he’s not altogether committed to the idea of spending significant time as a DH (rather than an outfielder), as just three of the organizations are in the American League. Really, though, it’s pure guesswork.
Everybody has a pet theory or a gut intuition here. What’s yours? (Team order randomized; link for app users.)
Padres
Honestly, I think they have a legitimate shot. West Coast team, not big market, and never had an established Japanese player
I think they have a better shot than any other team other than Seattle
It’ll be a toss up
Someone has padres has 5/2 odds and marines at 5/1
The never had established Japanese player wouldn’t help anything. If you’re referring to Ohtani’s comments last week, he stated that he doesn’t want the team to have a current Japanese star. But them, and the Mariners do have the best chances, I agree there.
Matthew…he never said that…here is what was posted on MLBTR…”MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that executives from multiple teams are of the belief that Ohtani’s preference is to sign in a market that does not already have an established Japanese star, though Ohtani’s agents at CAA have not commented on that possibility. Morosi also spoke to one of Ohtani’s teammates in Japan, former big leaguer Brandon Laird, who offered a similar suggestion (Twitter link): “I feel like he just wants to come and not be compared to other guys who have already been here — to start fresh on his own, show what he can do by himself.”
mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/shohei-ohtani-rumors-fr…
Just as with the rumor that it must be west coast, it must be small market, there must be a Japanese community….it’s all speculation…what he did say about playing with another Japanese star is this….
MLB.com: What’s your relationship like with Yu Darvish?
Ohtani: I train with him in the offseason, and he reaches out once in a while. He takes good care of me.
MLB.com: Would it be better for you and Darvish to be on separate teams
Ohtani: Being on the same team would be great, but being on separate teams would also be great, because I would get to face him.
I think he will go to San Diego too, plus they have that cute woman pitcher when she comes back from Tommy John surgery
HAHAHA!!
I agree. Padres are serious contender for Ohtani
San Diego had the rights to Hideki Irabu, which they traded to NYY for Ruben Rivera…
They can only give me $300k bonus though. Mariners can give 1.6 mil and Rangers 3.6mil. While money isn’t everything, it should be partial factor.
Also SD is a NL team, no DH.
4 of 7 teams left standing are NL teams. DH dont mean crap. He can get 100 plus bats alone just on days he is pitching that he cant get in AL and he would rather play OF then DH
JKB…”that he cant get in AL and he would rather play OF then DH”. He has never said he would rather play the OF than DH…he did say this..”.I have played in right field in the past, but I’m not sure how that would compare to an MLB team. Pitching is more of my strength.” m.mlb.com/news/article/262669080/a-february-qa-wit…
How come he can’t hit and pitch in the AL…the DH is not mandatory.
He can pitch and hit in the AL but if he starts as a pitcher and gets bombed and has to be pulled in the second inning then you still have to go 6 or more innings with the pitchers spot in the lineup. You can’t implement a DH mid-game.
I’ve stated these reasons several times. Finally, Jon Heyman agrees. Pobrecitos
“New York, in terms of distance, history, city atmosphere and just about everything else, too.
We are all just reading tea leaves at this point, but a few small snippets of explanation leaked out with the seven final teams – the Mariners, Giants, Angels, Dodgers, Rangers and Cubs, in addition to the Padres – and the knowledge of those lucky seven teams may provide more clues. Yankees GM Brian Cashman, the leader of the former favorite, mentioned to Yankees writers that he got a “sense” that a smaller-market team on the West Coast is the believed-to-be preference.
Bingo. That’s San Diego.
But while that kind of logic on my part is only barely better than guessing — and Ohtani’s representatives at CAA are conducting business in radio silence so there are no reliable English-speaking sources on this — there are what one keen baseball observer called “bread crumbs” to San Diego.
Here are a few them …
Top Padres executives Logan White and Acey Kohrogi were part of a Dodgers contingent that tried hard to sign Ohtani as a teenager a half-decade ago, as Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune pointed out in this piece.
Padres GM A.J. Preller, who just got a three-year extension, has been on top of the Ohtani sweepstakes from the start, even if he/they have stayed out of the press. Preller prefers stealth pursuits (he and Padres people still haven’t responded to many, many texts since FanRag Sports first reported the Padres made the finals even Sunday night), and at this point it’s clear that this has been one.
The Padres have Hideo Nomo and Takashi Saito, also former Dodgers, in their front office.
They employ Seiichiro Nakagaki, a former Nippon-Ham Fighters trainer, according to Lin’s story. (This could be considered coincidence, or maybe it’s just thinking ahead.
Ohtani trained at the Padres’ Peoria, Ariz., spring site the past two years with Nippon, as Joel Sherman of MLB Network and the New York Post pointed out. (Who knows, maybe he took a liking to what goes around on Bell Road; it seems rather nondescript to me, but there is an In-n-Out Burger within a quarter mile of the complex, and several other top-notch fast-food offerings, on Bell.
Padres manager Andy Green played for Hokkaido in 2007, so he knows something about Japanese baseball.
The Padres have no current Japanese stars on their roster. A couple people who have some familiarity with Ohtani’s thinking have suggested they believe he’d prefer a team without holdover Japanese stars – though that doesn’t seem to be a major consideration, and others around him say they haven’t even heard anything of such talk.
The Padres at least tried a two-way player last year (Christian Bethancourt, who attempted to pitch and catch), as Lin pointed out.
As a team not expected to contend in 2018 perhaps, the Padres will have about the best opportunity of all the finalists to give Ohtani’s two-way dream a full chance.
The Padres would seem to have a decent future, if not present, due to many great prospects (they are ranked behind the White Sox and Braves but not that far behind).
San Diego really is a small town (one of the smallest in the bigs and the smallest one remaining), and obviously it is quite nice unless you don’t like sunshine, beaches and exquisite terrain.
PETCO Park leans toward a pitcher’s park, and pitching is seen as Ohtani’s “calling card” (the word of one interested GM), though of course Ohtani’s main thing is that he is a two-way player.
While the Padres are one of only three teams with only the minimum $300,000 to give Ohtani as a bonus (Dodgers and Cubs are the others), he may legitimately be the first known case of a player who cares not a whit about money. Let’s not forget, he could simply wait two years and almost surely win a $200 million free-agent contract as a 25-year-old.
His main agent at CAA, Nex Balelo, is from Point Loma, outside San Diego. (Ok, this probably isn’t at the top of his list. Or mine.)
So we are now establishing the Padres as the new and real favorite. Of course, who knows?
I think also that Nomo’s son is Ohtani’s translator. That can’t hurt
If you the Padres were on top of this from the start, why violate the rules and get themselves restricted to just 3ook? Why take the risk? Money may not be the deciding factor, but there’s a difference between offering beans and a decent living.
Most teams–if not all–were doing their homework on Ohtani early. Dipoto has noted that he’s been working on this possibility for a year and I would imagine that has been the norm.
So don’t go all out in the ’16 J2 in case Ohtani, who has repeatedly stated that the money isn’t a factor, is an option? Also, at the time, no one was sure he was going to be posted. That was 17 months ago. I think Preller did just fine. And, it looks like the Padres have just as much a chance as anyone else to sign him, even with the J2 splurge
Put some thought into this, did you? Good analysis. Unfortunately, Ohtani will probably spend as much time thinking about Padres, as you spent writing about it. Mariners are in the driver’s seat on this one.
It’s a copy and paste from Jon Heyman, but thanks for the sentiments!
Could have sworn I read the exact same thing word for word before … from Heyman
Yes, that’s why it’s in “quotation marks”and I mentioned Heyman. Please follow along
“I’ve stated these reasons several times. Finally, Jon Heyman agrees..” Heyman was one of many who also said the NYY were favorites. There is even a flaw in the In-n-out burger matter……he “gets animated defending Japan’s Captain Kangaroo Burgers over In-N-Out Burgers.”
2nd time’s a charm??
Isn’t San Diego roughly twice the size of Seattle?
Lol. Rangers have the most money!!! ($3.53M) and in last place .(6.43%) 17,645 votes taken.
I vote Rangers!!!
This is my DARK HORSE TEAM!!
They were in if the favorites from the beginning. hardly a dark horse team, that’d be My Padres
I wouldn’t mind the Padres, nice area, decent stadium would be a good experience for him otherwise. Seattle in general has a great Asian pacific presence, which could make things easier too. I think this kid is more about the experience in America. Wins are nice and all, but the media here is viscous, while I do think he’s overrated I gotta respect that view. Angels would be a great fit, but I assume he’s pretty against it and is meeting with them to see what it’s really all about.
Why would you make the assumption that Ohtani would be against playing for the Angels?
Mariners
yankees
Lol
teehee
Passwordispassword’s password is password. So type password for passwordispassword’s password and you have the password for passwordispassword.
I’m gonna say Yankees too. Then they trade their rights to the Padres to get back at them for the Irabu deal.
Angels. I really think they will get him.
Why would he want the mariners? They’re the epitome of mediocrity. Not bad enough to tank and not good enough to compete. Plus they have established Japan connections. I thought he didn’t want an established Japanese culture? Unless I’m wrong.
You’re wrong.
He doesn’t want the team to have a current japenese star.
Obviously this isn’t true because he’s interested in the Mariners who have Iwakuma and he’s interested in the Dodgers who have Maeda.
Colborn Seattle was in the WC hunt last year until the last 2 weeks using a record number of pitchers. 2 starters were called up from AA as were a couple of BP arms. We had 1 SP on the rotation out our ST for a good portion of the season and he was the worst of our SPs. If our pitchers would have been healthy we would have handily won a WC spot. I doubt we would have beat the Astros but we would have done much better than we did. We have this pitchers back with that experience and bringing in Ohtani will just make us that much better. Will we beat the Astros not sure. Can they stay healthy? Do they fall apart? Who knows but with so many injuries we were still competitive and just a couple players away from a college team.
The Texas Rangers.
Is there an option for “none of the above?”
No why would there be? He is only meeting with those 7 teams and he will be signing with one of them.
You mean like how Zack Greinke was 100% signing with either the Dodgers or Giants?
What a stupid comparison. Greinke went where the money was. Thats the only reason Arizona got him.
Ohtani is looking at other variables. Its apples and oranges.
Calm down bro. I’m just highlighting the fact that players often sign with dark horse teams. I actually prefer it that way. They just go out and get their guy rather than wasting our time with all of this speculation.
“What a stupid comparison.”
What are you, twelve? It’s possible to disagree without being rude.
Why can’t you compare apples and oranges? They’re both fruit
Well it’s going to be tough to sign him without even getting a meeting with him.
Keyboard warriors will be keyboard warriors. Some people don’t know how to have an intelligent conversation and resort to being rude to people
Sheldon? Is that you?
Probably
That would be a good analogy if Greinke had short-listed his choices to the Dodgers and the Giants.
Where you been hiding Ryan? glad you’re back to your super outside the box theories
Always a mystery team that seems to come out of nowhere!
For about a month before he signed with the Diamondbacks there were several articles posted on here saying it was going to be one of those two.
Yeah bud this is different though he’s gonna sign with one of these teams it’s not the same as grenkie.
Angels are the best fit in my biased opinion. Not too much media attention, a decently competitive team, AL team, west coast. It’s between them, Padres and mariners imo
Any team with the best player in the game is going to get a good amount of media attention.
Angels don’t though
They have no farm
Money tied anywhere
Mediocre pitching
Pujus and trout
They are California’s vs of the marlins
Angles
Isosceles?
What a stupid comparison. He’s obviously referring to trigonometry.
What! It’s clear to the most obtuse among us that the comment was clearly intended to be Euclidean.
You played that from a creative angle
Yeah! That will probably happen.
Acute, right, obtuse, straight, reflex
Cubs
Everyone knows he’s just telling all these teams he’s going to the Yankees
Don’t see him going to the NL
Mariners probably
Angels baby
I’d say it’s probably gonna be San Diego or Seattle but there’s only like 2 people in the world that actually know the answer to this question
Yeah, no kidding. Maybe only one.
Mariners honestly, he’ll want to go to the AL cuz he wants to hit so he’ll be able to DH, think he’ll want to be in Seattle rather than Anaheim, think he wants to be the star of the team and he won’t be on angels with trout
Cano, Cruz, Hernandez are not stars?
Not really, no. They combined for less WAR than Aaron Judge last year.
Yeah, lets cherry-pick one stat from one season. Judge has a long way to go to have as productive a career as Cano.
Cano is a potential Hall-of Famer. It’s way too early to make that kind of statement about Judge.
Hernandez… not anymore. No, he’s not. Cano is aging… still a borderline star. Cruz is a star, but he’s aging and limited to mostly DH. And I love Cruz’s bat. But, no way, maybe, and yes, but only in the short run.
I’m going to toss a new theory out. He doesn’t sign with any of the above. Something isn’t starting to add up for me. Not because he shunned the Yanks or other teams, just the fact he is seriously limiting his own brand and market, and foregoing a tremendous amount of money were he to wait for 2 years. When he started picking off teams this weekend, it just raised a lot of red flags in my mind. Why not the Met’s or Yanks or Jays, but the Rangers and Cubs? That’s not really “West Coast” so it challenges that narrative.
You’re over-thinking it.
” challenges that narrative.”…but that narrative was never set in motion by Ohtani or his people. It was Cashman and Heyman. Heyman said something like (I don’t feel like looking it up) that execs told him. It was baseball execs who also said the Yankees where all but certain to sign Ohtani.
My guess was the Mariners before the cutdown and I’m going to stick with them. I’m hoping the Cubs get him, and I could really see a younger player liking it there with their coach, clubhouse culture (from what I’ve read) and their core talent. Hope he does well wherever he goes though, as he seems like a compelling talent.
I live in Chicago. If I had a choice I wouldn’t come to Chicago. I actually hope he goes to a non contender
I think the Mariners
I want the Padres
This Mariner fan voted for the Padres because Seattle fans are accustomed to disappointment..
Padres have had plenty to drink over themselves.
I’m stuck on 3 teams. Rangers, Padres, Mariners.
Mariners because of the obvious reasons. Proximity to Japan, culture, west coast.
Rangers because they have been hard on him since high school, best friend is Darvish who by the way still resides in Dallas, not a HUGE market.
Padres because they fit all his needs, and their GM Preller was the assistant GM in Texas when they were after him in high school.
Those seen the most logical. Not seeing anything line up with the other 4.
I agree. I’d whittle it down further by figuring all things equal, he prefers AL.
Cleveland.
Browns?
Cavaliers, for sure.
Seattle LAA or TEX. Has to be an AL team
Here is a theory as why the Rangers may end up being the team to beat.
The Rangers have obviously been on this guy for 6 years and have a relationship. (But that’s not what I think everyone is missing.)
Ohtani’s questionnaire had questions about medical staff and how they would protect his health. So he is very conscious of staying healthy. That leads to my theory.
The Rangers have long thought about possibly going to a 6 man rotation. Jeff Bannister has been fascinated by it to save arms for the end of the year.
That would be in line with what Ohtani did in Japan. (They pitch once a week there)
That would also give Ohtani 4 days to hit because a pitcher usually takes the day after a start off.
The Rangers have already signed Fister and today Minor. So they have a four man rotation now. Minor is a bullpen guy who used to be starter. (Prime candidate for a 6th man or long man when they have a day off and skip the 6th starter)
Everyone thinks they are in on Lynn, Arrieta or Cobb. Ohtani wouldn’t change that. The Rangers have money to spend this year and Ohtani wouldn’t cost anything.
An AL team has to be the front runner if health is an issue. The angels and mariners both have DH’s on their roster in Cruz and Pujols. (Do you see them going back to the field regularly?)
My point is that everyone is dismissing the Rangers which may just be a huge mistake.
If you read this and I am right, you will remember where you heard it.
The issue here, is that perhaps the biggest person that Ohtani had a relationship with in Texas… was Preller.
6 man rotations have never worked, and Mike Minor is going to last about 4 days as a starter before he breaks again.
Not true. Rangers assistant GM Cook was the original Japan guy. He has been their Japanese connection the longest.
It’s not a NL team. Nobody is going to allow a sub 3 ERA guy who throws 100 mph to play OF for three days a week.
Clearly you have forgotten the Bethancourt Experiment…
It would be silly to rule out an NL team. If being a DH was so important to Ohtani why are 4 of his 7 short-listed team in the NL?
Seattle Mariners make the most sense given that they are a complete team should Oshani sign with them. In general, Seattle is a great place for Japanese folks given the culture and closeness to Japan.
The only con to joining the Seattle Mariners is their farm. Long term success might not be there when the club becomes too expensive or too old and there’s no farm to replenish the fallen.
I think either Angels or Padres. Ultimately i think he picks the Angels. An opportunity to play alongside the best player in mlb in Trout aling with a future hof in Pujols. He can anchor that pitching staff and Anaheim really isnt always in the spotlight.
Yankees.
At the last minute Cashman is going to threaten his agents that he’s going to trade the farm for him, so he might as well sign with them right away and make more money in the process (assuming he’s not signing with the Rangers).
He’ll come to his senses and sign.
(I’m allowed to dream…..)
..but unfortunately the team that did win the Ohtani sweepstakes is prevented from trading him to the Yanks because he invokes his NTC. Yankees disappointment is compounded.
(I’m allowed my own fantasy…)
Voted Mariners, but hope it’s the Giants. Although I wouldn’t be surprised by any one of the 7. Ohtani is obviously his own man, he alone knows exactly what he’s looking for, and the reasons he chooses where he goes are more complex than simply a previous association with Preller, or convenient non-stops to Japan.
Surely, he’s going to the Yankees. You think MLB hasn’t told him yet?
Texas.
I think the Giants have as good a chance as the other teams.
He’s a mystery but he has also been very open about his goals, which are to be a major league player as a two-way player, and he has acknowledged that he needs to learn more and become better, because he’s not just satisfied with being a major leaguer, but he wants to be the best. Hence his single-minded focus so far, avoiding parties and drinking, living in the dorms near their training facilities, jumping to majors now, instead of waiting two years for loads of cash.
The Giants have developed a lot of players in the past decade that they can point out to Ohtani. Still, hard to beat out the other teams’ good qualities as well, it’ll be neck and neck.
What will all of you do when it’s down to San Diego and Seattle ?
It’s foolish to count any of the other 5 teams out. Obviously Ohtani saw enough from the 7 teams to short-list them. Unless you have some sort of inside track to Ohtani’s thinking you haven’t any better of a guess than anyone else.
Is it really?
Preference for west coast
Scratch off Chicago and rangers
Small market
Scratch off doyuers giants and angels
Mariners and Rangers are a good fit. But also the Dodgers.
But I think the Angels Sign Darvish, Ohtani and Trade for Stanton.
Cubs shock the world and get their future ace for $300k. I’m thinking the homework was to see who really wanted and needed him. Everyone knows how Theo and jed operate with going all out for what they want. Maddon will play a role. Team is mostly otanis age. Can’t say there’s a team that has as much fun as the cubs. All will play a factor and probably why the cubs are a finalist
Out of the seven how many have had a 2 way player?
Only one San Diego
Masson has used pitchers in the outfield on several occasions Travis Wood, Pedro Strop, etc).
It’s not like Maddon cannot be creative enough to find a spot for him every day. Versatility is a huge part of Maddon’s daily lineup card.
That said, I don’t believe that will be the tipping point for his ultimate decision.
Angels for sure, best defense in the league behind him ( 5 gold glovers) put Pujols back at first ( 6 gold glovers). Ohtani can DH on his off days, west coast team, couple of players away from a serious postseason run.
Gold gloves don’t really show if you’re good defensively. Maybe the last couple of years are legit, but before you just had to be a good hitter with mediocre defense
Lol
Dude if you want to talk about defense then la wins
I don’t like doyuers but facts are facts
JDGoat, there is not a defensive infield in baseball better than the Cubs.
I don’t know how confrontable The Angels feel about Pujols being the everyday first baseman again. Especially with his advancing age, and ankle problems last year.
Dodgers, with a locker next to Stanton..
Is Hideo Nomo still working in the Padres front office?
Yes
Hideo Nomo’s son is Otani’s translator. And yea Nomo still works for the Padres.
Firstly, I love that Otani turned down the evil empire.
I think Mariners, but what comes of Nelson Cruz. He can’t play the field, which then cuts into the Otani’s DH at-bats.
Giants, Hensley Muelens is fluent in Japanese. It would be huge to be able to talk to the bench coach without a translator.
Worst name in the history of sports
Montreal Expos.
Although you’re probably wrong, your guess is worth as much as all the others, mine included.
Go to a team that has never had a japanese star player, with a chance to go to the World Series right away: Cubs.
Kosuke Fukudome was an All Star with the Cubs:
baseball-reference.com/players/f/fukudko01.shtml
Since when is Munenori Kawasaki not a star player?
He is japaneeeese
One of the options should be stay in Japan. It’s still out there. He could believe there is more money down the line.
Also I hope he gets eat up by pitching a lit up by real professional bats. He already seems like a premadonna. A regular Giancarlo Stanton if you ask me.
No one is asking you.
Plus you’re apparently well short of the data necessary for an informed opinion. It’s obvious to most, by Ohtani’s career choices so far that money has a low priority for him.
Another Yankee fan
Go to a club that never had a Japanese star. Then why the Mariners?
Anyway, I think it’ll be the Mariners.
Seattle
I tried but the powers to be killed it thank you
They didn’t like my other comment he’ll back on the day a REAL SPORTS tided printed the bad and the good These chumps can’t do it because they are not real
I went with the Mariners but wonder if the fact he is holding all meetings in LA isn’t telling us something.
His future contract will most likely be most impacted by his pitching stats. Where else would a pitcher chose? Pitchers park in league w/o DH on a team that promises to let him play OF a bit and PH.
So it could be Dodgers. Angels too I guess but facing the DH instead of a pitcher wont help his stat line
Isn’t his agency based in LA?
I agree but I think he would relish the challenge that the DH would bring
He wlll go where he goes. Stop talking about it. It this was a paper I would wipe my ass with it
Talk about where he goes when he gets there other wise talk baseball like sandyKoufax don drysedale brooks robinson. Jackie robinson Roberto Clemente. I am sure they wii erase ‘tis too. The Japanese kid wii go where he goes shut up about it
If you’re so upset about speculation, why did you clock the link and read the article? Nothing in the headline suggested that this post would say anything about ohtani eventual destination. This is a rumors site, let us have our fub!
I would call the giants the front-runners at this point but I’ve thought that since the beginning. It makes no sense for him to go to an AL team, as he would have to DH 30 games just to make up for the at bats he would miss in the national league. Ohtani himself has said that hitting makes him a better pitcher, so I doubt he would willingly give up at bats. The giants have a great untapped market for a great Japanese athlete. The bay area has the largest Japanese population outside Japan, and sfo is more or less the connecting hub to Tokyo. In San Francisco ohtani would get to pitch to greatest catcher on the planet (#2 isn’t even close), and Posey is signed to a long term deal. Ohtani would get to join a rotation that already has the best hitting pitcher in the league, and the giants have shown that whoever is the best pitcher will sit atop the rotation, meaning it’s not madbums spot just because he’s on the team. Lincecum was the ace until Cain took over and then madbum, yet all 3 pitchers were still on the team. They also have the best manager (active) in MLB. Bochy is everything you could want in a manager, and bochy even has a track record of letting his pitchers do more than pitch, with pinch hits and runs by pitchers in key playoff moments. The giants make so much sense it probably won’t happen. But we can dream, right?
Why would he lose at-bats? An AL team is not forced to use the DH.
Not sure why people don’t get that………
5.11 (6.10) Designated Hitter Rule……………………….
(3) It is not mandatory that a club designate a hitter for the
pitcher, but failure to do so prior to the game precludes
the use of a Designated Hitter for that club for that
game……. Link to MLB Rules
mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/y2016/official_baseball_…
Personally I feel the Angels are the blackhorse to win it. Arguably a better defensive catcher than Posey with Martin Maldonado (I would also say that Yadier Molina is better than Posey but that’s aside from the point) and a better supporting cast
Truthfully, I think The Padres have a better chance of signing Ontani than The Cubs. He wants a small market, West Coast team. His description really fits The Padres.
Small market? Then why is LA and Chicago and SF still in the running?
Still on The West Coast. They both have the advantage there.
I’m hoping its the Padres. One other theory that hasn’t been mentioned is that the Padres are the only game in town now. With the Boltz bolting, Ohtani could be the face of San Diego sports, now that Rivers is no longer there.
Seattle (Russel Wilson), LA (Kershaw, etc), Angels (Trout), Texas (Cowboys), Chicago (Bryant/Rizzo) and SF (Posey/Bumgarner) all have multiple sports teams or an established face of the franchise. San Diego has Wil Myers (lol).
Until Tatis makes his ML debut, San Diego will have no one else to use as their poster boy for sports.
Look, I am a die hard Ranger fan.
My best guess is that the Mariners are in the lead. They have the DH and Ichiro was one of his heroes.(Except that I can’t figure what they would do with Cruz)
But to have the Rangers in last place means that people aren’t doing their homework or they are too biased in their approach.
If Ohtani is serious about being a hitter also, he is going to an AL team. He has hinted at that by his questionnaire. One of his questions was about medical staff and how they handled injuries and rehab. That means he knows the risk of playing the OF and wants to know how a NL team would handle him if he was injured. (My guess is that he is worried that signing with a NL team and getting injured could derail playing in the field and batting regularly again.)
I will say that the Padres are his only NL team that he may go with. Preller was with the Rangers when they pursued him out of high school. Plus they have a Japanese presence in their front office. But I don’t see him playing regularly in the OF if he is a sub 3 ERA guy who throws 100MPH. That’s a commodity that is rare. For that cheap a price you have to protect your long term projections.
That leaves the Rangers and Angels as the second best bet. The Rangers have to be the leader there.
The Angels have Pujols and he isn’t going back into the field for an extended amount of days.
The Rangers have a unique idea that may be the turning point if they are for real.
Jeff Bannister has talked for years of using a 6 man rotation. It saves arms and helps with not wearing out your staff before the end of the year run. Plus with off days, you really only need a 6th starter but about 9 times each half of the season per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. So your 6th guy would also be in your bullpen for a couple of days each week on those situations. That is similar to Japan and how they use pitchers. Obtani”s questionnaire also asked about how each club would help him assimilate to MLB. With a 6 man rotation that also gives him 4 days to DH instead of just 3. Hell, you could even let him play the OF one of those days if he is adamant about it. Plus he would be ready to play it on inter-league games.
If the Rangers make that pitch to Ohtani, it could be the thing that puts them over the edge.
My prediction in order of likely hood.
Mariners
Rangers
Angels
Padres
Nobody else is really a consideration.
He is 100% signing with the Texas Rangers.
Angels, LA market too hard to pass on
He passed on New York, are you kidding?
Angels are a better team than the Padres, playing on the West Coast in a small market, with more money to give him and they have a DH spot to give him that the Padres can’t offer. He will get to play with the best player alive in Mike Trout as well as a solid ensemble cast of Gold Glove winners and all stars
Heres my WILD theory on what will happen of this Ohtani situation. Ohtani will end up playing baseball for a baseball team on a baseball field. Now, I know what youre thinking: “but Begamin, how can you be so sure?!”, well i’ll tell ya.
You see, Ohtani is friends with a baseball player and he said that he really likes baseball and he constantly has connections to other baseball like baseballs. Baseball has constantly scouted this kid since he was just a baseball. Now, its been known that he prefers playing on the baseball coast, so that eliminates most teams not associated with baseball. He also doesnt want to baseball with an already established baseball, so that takes out some teams as well. According to Baseball Analyst Guy, Ohtani has ruled down his search to 7 baseballs: Baseball, Baseball, Baseball, Baseball, Baseball, Baseball, and last but not least, Baseball. Now, Baseball has the most Baseballs readily available to give to an overseas baseball player but its been noted that he doesnt have the number of baseballs as his top prioty. If he did, he would have waited another 2 baseball years but he didnt because hes baseball, obviously.
Thats why I think baseball is in the lead to baseball with Ohtani. Reply with your thoughts.
Spare time much?
I was mainly just making a ruse out of the hundreds of very long and elaborate posts where they go on these wild speculations based off of hypotheticals. I would say that the posts im parodying took much more time to write up than my post.
As a Mariners fan the teams this scare me are the Giants and Padres. The Giants don’t need him the way the M’s and Padres do though. Both of these franchises and fanbases need a rejuvenation…
1st off…. who cares?
Secondly, if he was smart, which he’s showing that he’s not, he’d sign with Padres.
If he truly wants a small market, where he’ll instantly be the biggest star in town with the best living environment …. then SD is it.
Only the Yankees and Cashman have said he wants to sign with a small market team. Not Ohtani or his group themselves. The whole “small market” thing the media has grasped onto and ran with is solely Cashman and his butt hurtness spewing out to the press over Ohtani giving NY the cold shoulder. If he wanted a small market then why have 3 of the 7 teams on your list be from the 2nd and 3rd largest markets (Dodgers, Angels, and Cubs). San Francisco isn’t exactly a small market when you count the greater area of Oakland and San Jose. The San Fran, Oakland, and San Jose area comprises of almost 9 million people. And those cities are right on top of each other. To not consider that a part of the San Fran market is foolish. It’s like saying the Cubs market is solely Chicago, but when you look at the Chicagoland area (AKA Chicago Metropolitan Area) the number of people they have to potentially build their fan base off of is about 9.5 MILLION people. And that is pretty much just Cook County and the surrounding counties…. areas well within 1 hour drive time to Chicago. I mean I don’t get why “market size” seemingly only includes the population of the city the team plays in. I live about 1 hour to an 1 hour and 15 minutes out of Chicago. I certainly get the Cubs games on TV as I am well within the “market” for Cubs games. Heck, Peoria airs Cubs games and their located in central Illinois. Point is, fans of a team come from EVERYWHERE. But more specifically they come from a regional area of the state the team plays in. Using the Cubs as an example (my team), of the 40-45,000 that go to games I am willing to bet about 30,000 of those people come from at least 1 hour out of the city to watch the team. Meaning they are “out” of the market area….. according to people who think the immediate city the team plays in is the team’s sole market. The Chicago market is not only chicago, but pretty much all Northern Illinois, Southeast Corner of Wisconsin, and Northwest Indiana. Willing to bet the total population of that area is well over 15 MILLION.
Regardless. People who think he WANTS to play for a small market team are listening to too many butt hurt, pretentious New Yorkers.
How could he not go to an American League team where he can pitch and DH? Mariners or Angels
Both of those teams have a DH. Is Cruz or Pujols going to start playing in the field again?
For all the people saying the Mariners, I have one question for you. When was the last time Jerry Dipsnot actually signed a big time Free Agent? Remember he never wanted Pujols or Hamilton, so he says. His Free Agent pick ups while with the Angels and so far with the Mariners have all been busts. Other than Joe Smith, all of his Free Agent signings were big time over paid and busts.
Logic would normally make me say he’ll go to either the Giants or Mariners. But, the Giants are most definitely going in the wrong direction as a team, buried under horrible contracts. And the Mariners aren’t exactly a storied franchise, and they’re not exactly on the cusp of being a great team for the immediate future. But still these teams make the most sense for a Japanese player clearly wanting to be close to home.
BUT. The fact the Cubs made his list as one of only 2 non-west teams is intriguing. Why include them if you weren’t leaning hard in their direction? They’re a stupid young team that has a WS ring and 3 consecutive NLCS appearances under their belt and look like they’ll be going there year in and year out for at least the next 5 years, potentially longer if Ohtani joins the team and lives up to the ridiculous amount of hype he has around him. Then throw in the fact that Theo is one of the best salesmen and the fact Ricketts has given him a ton of things to sell that are appealing to prospective players other than just a winning team, like their brand new spring training facilities in Arizona, and their completely redone stadium with brand new locker rooms/clubhouses. Then there is the fact that Chicago is Chicago. Granted it is ran by completely inept f**kwad liberals, it is still one of the best cities in the country…. if not the best (I’ve been to NYC multiple times and each time it seemingly gets progressively worse….. VERY overrated and I think NYers agree….. I mean they’re some of the most miserable people you’ll meet/run into out there). LA also seems like a depressing town but at least they have the weather. Of ALL the places I’ve been too which is several countries and pretty much every state in the US except none of the West Coast states, LA seems like it is an overrated place. We all hear how awful the traffic is and how Californians suck at driving. Los Angeles seems like it would be filled with a bunch of depressed, narcissistic, virtue signaling, anti-everything type people. Just thinking about having to deal with those kind of people is exhausting. But again, they have that weather….. and f**king smoking hot women.
Enough bashing other cities though. I just find the fact that he left Chicago on his radar. Why would he do that if he is dead set on playing on the west coast? I won’t be shocked if he picks Chicago. As a Cub fan I am indifferent towards the potential addition. I’m not buying into the INSANE hype this kid has around him that has been built by the media. I’m not trying to be a di** here but Japanese players rarely pan out. They MIGHT have 1-2 stellar seasons….. but then they peter out rapidly either because of rapidly declining abilities or because of injury (see Matsuzaka, Matsui, Darvish, Tanaka has even battled nagging injuries throughout his short career). 55 Japanese players have come over to MLB. Ichiro is head and shoulders and then some the best one to make the transition. It then drops off rapidly with Matsui being the 2nd best. Then I’d actually say Darvish and Tanaka are the 3rd and 4th best but they’re only in the beginning phase of their careers…….. and are already fading after only like 1.5-2 solid years of play. I don’t know. I just smell “BUST” written all over this kid. Normally that would make me completely opposed to the Cubs signing yet another NPB player despite all their other NPB endeavors failing miserably. BUT Ohtani is a unique case. He’d only cost $300,000 in a signing bonus, and will make the league minimum and have to go through arbitration a few years down the line as if he’s a regular old international amateur signing. Due to his cheapness I am open to the possibility of adding him………… but I still think he’ll be a major disappointment. If they were to add him I’d love to hear what the plan will be in his usage. IMO it would be best to solely use him as a SP. Great, he can hit well. So can Arrieta and Bumgarner. Carlos Zambrano was also a beast with the bat. Yet they are/were solely starting pitchers. If they think this kid can become a 200+ innings eater while possessing an ERA under 3.50 why make him pull double duty? I mean in the era of managers babying the hell out of pitchers the idea of a team using him as a starter and a position player is laughable to me. NO ONE will do that. If they do they will be killing his value, because I only see him then making maybe… MAYBE 15 or so starts and getting maybe 250-300 ABs. So he’d be a glorified 6th starter (if that….. possibly just relegated to long relief work) and a glorified utility/4th OFer/bench/platoon/whatever you want to call it player. So again, if the Cubs do get him, I hope their plans are to use him solely as a starter. If he lives up to the hype he should be as good if not better than Darvish and Tanaka were in their early days (and hopefully he’ll actually last longer at that high level). THAT production from a SP in a mix of Lester, Hendricks, and Quintana…… that would be a nasty rotation…… and super cheap as Hendricks and Ohtani would be making $5M or less in 2018 and Quintana will make <$9M. With Lester in the mix that is about $42M wrapped up in you top 4 starting pitchers then. By today's standards that is dirt cheap. Go out and sign Lynn or Cobb to a $12-14M AAV deal over 3-4 years and that is a potentially stacked rotation top to bottom and at most costing you only $56M in 2018. With how cheap their positional talent is for the next 4 or so years that means they could go bonkers in free agency signing the top relievers on the market to at most 4 year deals. Re-sign Davis. Sign Holland, Sign Reed. Sign Morrow. Do that and this team's payroll would STILL be less than it was in 2017. OR if they get Ohtani for super cheap they'd have the flexibility to go out and re-sign Arrieta if they wanted to….. and still sign 2-3 top relievers. Or sign Darvish to couple with Ohtani…… and still sign 2-3 top relievers. A rotation of Lester, Hendricks, Darvish, Quintana, and Ohtani…… daaaaaayum. I should say "daaaaayum" only if Darvish returns to form (was incredibly mediocre in Texas, but did turn it around a bit in LA).
CF Almora
C Contreras
3B Bryant
1B Rizzo
LF Schwarber
2B Happ/Baez
SS Russell/Baez
RF Heyward
SP Lester
SP Hendricks
SP Darvish (MLBTR predicts $26+M AAV for 6 years…. I'm thinking if he gets that long a deal it will be closer to $24-25M AAV)
SP Quintana
SP Ohtani
CL Davis (re-sign….. estimated $15M AAV – $5M pay raise from 2017 – for 4 years)
SU Reed (free agent… estimated $9M AAV for 4 years)
RP Edwards
RP Strop
RP Shaw? (free agent…. estimated $7M AAV for 3 years)
RP Grimm
LRP Montgomery
LRP McGee (free agent….. estimated $6M for 3 years)
All of these hypothetical additions of mine cost about $52-53M in payroll for 2018. Between Arrieta, Lackey, Montero, Uehara, Duensing, and Rondon leaving that SHAVES about $60M off the books….. meaning with my hypothetical team they'd be SAVING $7-8M from their payroll from 2017. Trade Zobrist and his contract to a team needing veteran leadership for next to nothing in return other than the trade partner footing the remaining bill on Zobrist and that would add $16.5 more to the pool of money coming off the books for 2018, meaning they'd have about $24M coming off the payroll WITH these hypothetical additions and subtractions. Meaning they'd have $24M they could spend on more relievers or yet another starter to just equal their payroll of 2017. So if they were to dump Zobrist that means they could easily add Morrow or Holland to their free agent addition list making the bullpen; Davis, Holland/Morrow, Reed, Edwards, Strop, Shaw, Montgomery, and Mcgee. That's a DEEEEEEEP bullpen. Beautiful thing, all those relievers will sign for at MOST a 4 year deal. Meaning when their contracts expire (so will Lester's) the young positional talent will just be hitting free agency. Meaning they'll have ample money to retain whichever positional stud(s) they want to retain. And if they can find a way to get themselves out from under Heyward's contract, that would be awesome too.
well i dont think we can look linear at this… The Kid Probably had an Idea in his mind of whom he would like to play for, possibly several teams that interested him… But… The Questionaire undoubtedly opened up some fasinating possibilities that he had not considered, and we may all be surprised including himself in which team he goes home with for the night….