Despite not accumulating enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, J.D. Martinez hit the third-most home runs of any player in baseball. Make no mistake, he’ll be paid for his power this winter.
Pros/Strengths
Since his breakout season with the Tigers, Martinez has been an incredible power asset. Over the past four seasons, the outfielder is 10th in MLB with 128 homers, despite having the second-fewest plate appearances of any player in the top 20 in that category. During that time, Martinez trails only Mike Trout in slugging percentage. He also ranks within the top five in wOBA and wRC+ during that stretch, with an even .300 batting average and .362 OBP, so it’s not as if he’s an all-or-nothing presence at the plate.
During the 2017 season, Martinez took his power to a new level. Across 489 plate appearances between the Tigers and the Diamondbacks, Martinez posted a whopping .690 slugging percentage, which would have led all of baseball by a full 59 points if he’d made enough trips to the plate to qualify for the slugging title. The power numbers he puts up are incredibly impressive and will motivate many teams to inquire on him.
It’s not just his power numbers that stick out, however. Those figures are just one by-product of Martinez’ true greatest strength: quality of contact. His whopping 49% hard contact rate led all of baseball last season, and only Aaron Judge had more barrels per plate appearance. His 208-foot average batted ball distance ranked 10th among hitters with at least 250 batted ball events. His 90.8 MPH average exit velocity ranked 12th, while his 97.2 MPH average exit velocity on fly balls ranked 6th.
Cons/Weaknesses
Though Martinez’ power is absolutely elite, he comes with a slew of weaknesses that hurt his value and build in a frightening amount of risk. It all starts with his health; Martinez has missed significant time with injuries in each of the past two seasons. In fact, the outfielder has only qualified for the batting title once in his career; teams will certainly be somewhat skeptical about his ability to produce at his 2017 clip over a full season in 2018, let alone in future years as he ages.
One can’t completely ignore defense, either, and Martinez is a downright liability in the field. Fangraphs rated him the seventh-worst defensive player in baseball in 2017. His Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games was -14.8; that figure was the worst among all MLB outfielders. Defensive Runs Saved paints a slightly better picture, but his -5 DRS still ties him for 40th place out of 56 qualifying outfielders. If Martinez was even average defensively, he’d no doubt be one of the top ten most valuable players in baseball. As it stands, however, he’s outside the top 40 in WAR among hitters alone across a three-year sample size.
There’s also plenty of swing-and-miss in Martinez’ game, although it may not be a chief concern in today’s environment. His 26.2% strikeout rate was the 41st-highest among 216 MLB players with at least 400 plate appearances last year. Part of this stems from his 71.2% contact rate, which put him in the bottom eighth of baseball players in that category. It’s worth noting that Martinez improved his walk rate dramatically this year as well; his 10.8% walk rate put him in the 30th percentile. All told, high strikeout totals aren’t entirely uncommon for power hitters, but Martinez does have some of the poorest plate discipline among the elite power threats in the game. If we isolate the top 30 players in slugging percentage this past season, Martinez has the 6th-highest strikeout rate and 12th-lowest walk rate in that group.
The mediocre plate discipline is probably worth the trade-off for his avalanche of extra base hits, but it’s tough to know whether his swing will age well. Martinez and agent Scott Boras are reportedly seeking a contract above $200MM. While few in the industry think he’ll come close to that figure, the MLBTR team predicts he’ll earn something in the range of $150MM. If a win is worth roughly $9MM on the free agent market, one would think Martinez will need to provide somewhere close to 14 wins for his new team over the life of that contract, factoring in some inflation. Over the last century, only a handful of players have produced 14 WAR or more for their entire careers with a strikeout rate above 25% and a walk rate below 11%. Those players are Chris Davis, Ryan Howard, David Ross, Colby Rasmus and Melvin Upton Jr. None of them stands out as being particularly productive beyond his age 30 season. Of course, the game is trending in more of a strikeout-heavy direction these days, so perhaps that stat shouldn’t be observed with too much gravity.
Those readers interested in “clutch” hitters should know that Martinez hasn’t been good in high leverage situations. Since his breakout began at the start of the 2014 season, Martinez ranks dead last among 289 qualifying hitters with a -4.30 clutch rating via Fangraphs.
Background
With the number 611 overall pick in the 2009 draft (20th round), the Houston Astros selected Martinez out of Nova Southeastern University in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. He ascended quickly through the minor leagues, making his professional debut just two years later, performing as a roughly average major leaguer in half a season’s worth of at-bats. Things didn’t go well for Martinez across the next two seasons, however. He posted a .245/.295/.376 batting line from 2012-2013 and was ultimately released by Houston.
Although his career seemed all but over after being cut by a then-cellar-dwelling Astros team, the Tigers nabbed Martinez, who had spend the offseason overhauling his swing. Early into the 2014 season, it became clear that Detroit had picked up a completely different player than the sub-replacement level outfielder who had struggled with the Astros. Martinez went on to put together a .318/.358/.553 slash line en route to 4.0 WAR and a 154 wRC+ that year, and has produced fantastic offensive numbers ever since.
Market
As a right-handed power hitter, Martinez would be a welcome asset to the middle of any MLB team’s batting order. However, his price tag will put him firmly out of reach for the majority of teams in smaller markets. Furthermore, the length of the contract he’ll command might give pause to NL teams, who could be concerned that his already-poor defense will decline further with age. While that certainly doesn’t eliminate NL clubs, it does mean that AL clubs (who could play him at DH in the latter years of the contract) might be willing to offer a longer deal. As MLBTR has already noted in our Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions article, the Red Sox are a very good fit. The piece also mentions the Cardinals and Giants as suitors. I’d add the Yankees and Rangers to that list as well, though both would likely need to do some creative financial work to make it possible. Perhaps a few other surprise bidders could emerge.
Expected Contract
The $200MM+ contract Boras is seeking for Martinez isn’t realistic. MLBTR’s initial projection of $150MM over six years is more plausible. However, it’s become evident by now that teams are willing to be patient and wait out the free agent market. Going into last offseason, Yoenis Cespedes had a similar four-year WAR output, was just a year older, and had fewer health questions; he signed a four-year, $110MM contract. Based on that, it might be safer to predict a five-year deal for Martinez. I’m going to forecast exactly that, at a $135MM guarantee.
Finally something NEW.
I hate to say it but I think he will end up getting more than 5 years.
I think he ends up like the parrot with less than what people think!
“The $200MM+ contract Boras is seeking for Martinez isn’t realistic.”
Being realistic and the name of Boras do not go together.
You only can wish you were as successful at your job as Boras is at his.
Scott Boras is widely known as “the johnsilver of baseball agents” soooooo…. kinda have this backwards.
Chucks dig the long ball and strike outs are overrated.
Of course Chuck Norris loves the long ball
The long ball digs Chuck Norris.
As does Chuck Barkley, hence the plurality.
I didn’t see any mention of Stanton or Ohtani. What’s up with that?
So many trolls here wow so many of you need to get an actual life and not troll a trade rumor site
And no mention of the Yankees either. I was under the impression the baseball world revolves around these 3 entities, so the omission is confusing.
Would live for the Sox to sign him. Not at 200mm though. He’s a level above Hosmer and the Sox needs some punch badly. DH can limit having his defensive liability. I guess I’d rather have Hanley at 1B than JD in RF?
Why on earth would JD displace Betts? Lol
He wouldn’t there isn’t a snowballs chance in hell he would displace Mookie from right but if he was to be signed it might mean JBJ is on his way out and JDM plays left. That’s my guess if they sign him. He also won’t get 200 million not a chance of that either. Teams are too smart for that nonsense.
Betts can play 2B while Pedey is on the DL half the season. That was his natural position before he was drafted. I still think JBJ gets traded though which would open a spot (obviously Betts or Beni would play CF, JD would be a nightmare out there).
Dreaming yes, but JBJ in a to the ChiSox for Abreu would be a nice Christmas present.
Well I’m telling you the White Sox aren’t trading Abreu for JBJ. Betts is the best defensive right fielder in baseball he is not going back to second he is the right fielder in one of if not the toughest right field in baseball. There is no chance that Betts flies back to second.
“Goes”
JBJ is worth twice as much in excess value as Abreu. Lot of posters here vastly over value Abreu. He’s a 32 year old projected at a little over 3 wins, limited to 1B, and due $40m over 2 years. He’s worth a decent prospect, period.
Maybe, but all the news outlets and writers are saying it’ll cost more then just JBJ for Abreu. If the Redsox sign JD there will be a logjam in of, JBJ looks like the odd man out. Have to trade one of Betts, JBJ or Beni
The majority of JBJ’s value is due to defense, a metric that both fluctuates greatly and has the greatest variability. Abreu gets knocked as being poor defensively, with people pointing out is -11.7 runs per Fangraphs. But that figure is actually better than Eric Hosmer’s -12.3 runs. Abreu is better than Hosmer and I’d be thrilled if Red Sox got him for just JBJ.
No no no and no! You dont put betts BACK into the infield after he’s taken three years to learn to play the most difficult right field in all baseball. Any why trade JBJ for Abreu? The Chisox wouldn’t do that unless we added in yet another of our thin and growing thinner by the second farm team. I’m for signing Santana or Hosmer or even Morrison/Dude if we lose those two as long as we get Martinez.
As a Sox fanatatic, I’m ALL IN for signing Martinez and also getting either Santa (preferred) or Hosmer. The Sox need 2 plus 25HR bats in their lines up. Also, although I love his defense, I wouldn’t cry if they traded JBJ although I’m not interested in swapping him for Abreu. If the Sox get D Martinez to play left and Benny takes over in center (that would be a sabremetric loss), then sign a !B for just money they could try to restock their farm team by trading JBJ (2 years still under team control) for a couple (or three?) top rated minor leaguers – not top 10 guys but 2 guys in the top 50-60 and someone else in the lower half of the top 100. I’m not as fantastical as a lot of you guys are on this site 9which is why I love reading the comments just as much as the articles, well except for the trolls) so please – you guys who know your minor league talent, what would JBJ be worth for strictly minor leaguers in a trade?
You bet you would!
Boras has a long history of getting his clients more than what others think is realistic. That is why so many big-time players choose him as their agent.
Boras’ demands aside, even $135M/5 yrs is a lot for a one-dimensional player who can’t stay healthy.
i say dbacks keep him. if that means they have to trade greinke, then do it. if you trade him than you’ll get a couple prospects and lose all that money
No ones trading for Greinke at 34 million straight up let alone getting anything back not going to happen he is a Diamondback until his contract is up.
The D’backs have a better chance of trading Yasmany Tomas than Greinke, and I seriously doubt they can find a taker for Tomas.
Overhaul his swing…different player….sure sounds like this guy was on the juice. The real scary part is sometimes they go off it once they sign the big contract. Why take the risk of being caught or the risk to your health after generational wealth?
This comment is hilariously asinine.
Why? So you’re saying it’s not possible he simultaneously fixed his swing and took something to enhance his abilities and went from being waived by the Astros to becoming an all-star slugger? .I’m not saying he did anything in violation of the MLB PED policy, but it’s awfully suspicious…..combined with frequent health issues.. If it smells like doggy doodoo it probably is…..or maybe its just a candy bar waiting to be eaten.
Scott Boras is going to be very unhappy with that prediction, Kyle, but I’ll bet you are correct. Maybe they sweeten it slightly with a $20M extra season with $8M buy out, to bring up the AAV.
As a Giant’s fan I love JDM as a hitter, but the idea of him in the OF at AT&T makes me cringe. And where would he play? I thought the plan was to platoon Span and Pence in LF, but they would probably be better playing the very difficult RF at AT&T than JDM, and that thought is extremely unsettling. If the Giants sign JDM it would be a clear case of over-compensation.
He’s not good in the OF but he’s not terrible either. Stats don’t tell the whole story you make him sound way worse than he is
Stanton Trade is holding this guys new team. Once Stanton gets traded this guys phone will ring
Liability in the field for sure…..may I suggest a move to 1B where his defense won’t matter as much plus his bat plays there for sure and he wouldn’t need to worry about defense as much….his offense would or should only get better…..just saying
10 year contracts should be avoided. Teams are wise and any agent couldn’t sell you on the benefit as we all know. 6 years tops.
If J.D. does sign with The Sox, he’ll likley DH, but could we see him get some first base in?
That’s what I’m hoping they try to do with Him if they sign him hopefully he will be willing to play some first base see how he does.