A few notes from around MLB as we wrap up another day in this historically sluggish offseason…
- While free agent third baseman Mike Moustakas hasn’t drawn much reported interest of late, that wasn’t the case early in the offseason, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes. However, teams that initially pursued Moustakas balked at his asking price, Feinsand adds. Now, at least one general manager expects Moustakas to land a far less valuable deal than some outlets – including MLBTR – projected entering the offseason. “When you see what (Jay) Bruce got from the Mets, it’s hard to see Moustakas getting more than that,” said the GM, referring to Bruce’s three-year, $39MM contract. While Bruce will play his age-31 season in 2018 and Moustakas won’t turn 30 until September, the former did not enter the winter with a qualifying offer attached. Moustakas did, which is among a few factors that have worked against him on the market, as Feinsand details in his piece.
- Center fielder Charlie Blackmon could be part of one of the best free agent classes of all-time next year, but he’s open to signing an extension with the Rockies and forgoing a trip to the market. “It’s a two-way street,” the 31-year-old told Thomas Harding of MLB.com. “I really like playing here. It’s been a great place to be. I like the people. I like the teammates. And I’ve also been on a one-year situation for the past three to four years, so it doesn’t really change anything for me. I’m used to that go-out-and-produce mindset. Hopefully, something happens. That would be great.” If something doesn’t happen, the reigning NL batting champion (.331) will play 2018 for $14MM and vie for a third straight star-caliber season.
- The Indians reportedly plan to play Jason Kipnis at second base in 2018, but they haven’t yet informed him of that, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com relays. It’s “more than likely” Kipnis will man the keystone, manager Terry Francona acknowledged, though Bastian notes that he may open the year in left field if Michael Brantley isn’t ready to return from the right ankle surgery he underwent in October. Kipnis, for his part, is “excited to play wherever they need me.” The career-long Indian, 30, also indicated he’s pleased to still be with Cleveland, despite offseason trade rumors.
moose at the previously reported asking price is a mistake. moose at the Jay Bruce price is a steal. reality is somewhere in between.
That’s what I was thinking. Any number of teams could use Moose at 3/39. i Figured early in the offseason he’d be one of the worst deals if he got around 5/80. I think it’s likely his defense declines a little bit and he has no on base skills. The pop is there though and for the right price I wouldn’t mind adding Moose.
Moose has shown the ability to adjust his approach. 2016-2017 Moose and 2015 Moose were different. He sacrificed a lot in 2017 for the power. To say he has no on base skills ignores the player he turned himself into in 2015. He doesn’t have great on base skills, but he can get on base if he takes that approach.
A steal? He sucks
He’s a hell of a lot better ball player then you, but I guess you can just tell that to his World Series ring and team home run record.
So what is your point GareBear
I find ridicously funny how people say things like “you do it better then”. They are professionals. What part of that don’t you understand. If they can’t do it better than the nonprofesionals somethi g is seriously wrong.
He sucks? He may not be worth $80 mil – but he just hit 38 HR (in a home pitchers park) and plays good defense.
As a Royals fan – I wouldn’t give him a huge contract because of his lack of on base ability, and I have concerns about his body holding up. But he’s certainly a quality ML player.
I like Moustakas but I’ve never dug into his numbers.
Pretty clear teams are valuing him more like Chris Carter (who hit 42 HR’s before being let go for nothing) than he and his agent expected.
“Good defense” is a bit of a stretch; he hasn’t been a good defender in a while. I’d be fine saying he plays “ok” defense, even though last year he was pretty bad…
Moose should get no more than 12 Mil a year
LOL at the attempt to blame a QO and its its diluted penalty for signing a FA. Grasping at straws to avoid seeing that big elephant in the room
QO is absolutely a factor in depressing prices for second-tier players during “free agency.”
Why not take the QO? Royals offered all of them out knowing they wouldn’t take them so accept them for a year play it out and not have it hanging over your head the next season
I don’t disagree with you, but I’m assuming he didn’t take the QO because he didn’t want to try to lock up a long term deal against next year’s FA class. Third is especially deep with Machado, Donaldson, Beltre, and Marwin Gonzalez to name just a few. He’s not going to get the deal he wants, but it’ll still be a better deal than he’d be able to get next year.
Diluted? Teams lose a pick and international money. Depending on the team, one can lose 2 picks + international signing money. I find this worst than just losing your 1st rounder. It’s not like 1st round picks are a guarantee star.
It definitely has an impact, though I agree it’s not the biggest factor.
Just an idea, but to try and speed up the market for Moose, what would happen if he said he’s willing to play some first? Kinda like how Cozart said he’s willing to play 2B or 3B.
Would that really boost his value? 1st base isn’t exactly a premium position like 2nd or 3rd.
It definitely wouldn’t hurt his value at least.
Well yeah. It couldn’t hurt though I’m not sure it’s really going to help to be able to play 1B. That’s the position they shift any declining defensive player on the diamond. I always thought Moose would end up being a 1B by the end of his contract when he was projected a 5 year deal. Looks like there’s no shot of that happening though.
I think moose should sign something like jay Bruce’s deal, but it would be the same price with 1 or 2 player options, with an opt out clause after the second year.
Sounds like Blackmons gonna take the QO
Still whispering of the dream that Moose ends up a Yankee.
Moose to the Bombers on the cheap makes too much sense. Just do it Cash!!
Except they want a pitcher and need to stay under the tax threshold
There should be some clever way to sign Moose and still stay under. I’m not sold they need a pitcher more then they need someone reliable at third,not to mention they need another LH power bat.
One, it only makes “sense” on a contract that Mous won’t accept.
Two, it makes no sense if you believe the Yankees want to stay under the lux tax threshold so they can go after Machado in the next offseason. Signing Mous – unless it’s to a one year pillow deal (which he probably won’t accept either because he doesn’t want to be out there next offseason competing with the next FA class for dollars) – precludes them from going after Machado.
Three, if the Yankees sign Mous to a deal he’ll accept, I suspect that in about 3 years the fan base will view the contract just like they view the Ellsbury deal.
First are you a Yankee fan? Second the fan base won’t consider a short contract to Moose like Ells as long that it’s around two years. They have been lobbying for a short contract to Frazier. It doesn’t preclude them from signing Manny if they put him at SS and trade Didi(not a popular thing right now) but it’s a business. After this season the landscape of their budget changes big time.
Umm, What does being a Yankees fan have to do with it?
I seriously doubt – and I would bet against it – that Mous would take a 2-year deal, but hey, that’s what dreams are made of.
But, this is a blog, not a GM’s or agent’s office, so neither one of us knows what will happen, or even what are the real possibilities.
The reason I asked was because being a fan of a team means reading the blogs,watching the teams games,talking and reading on Twitter and other sites about said team. Fans of the Yanks are indeed concerned about third and are 50-50 on Moose or Frazier. Let’s just see what Cash decides because in the end it’s his and the owners call. Good luck this year to you and whoever you root for…
Regardless of who one roots for in MLB, it’s impossible not to follow the Yankees because of the press they get.
That stated, an unbiased look (that means I don’t care who plays 3B for the Yanks in 2018) tells me that there are better players out there than Moose who are better long-term fits for the ballclub.
Machado is just one possibility – and, yes, I know he wants to move back to SS but I suspect that may be to build value in his FA year – because if he gets enough money from the Yankees to play 3B I’ll be he’s fine with it (ARod was).
Moose hit a lot of HR last season – a season where he may have been assisted in that quest by a juiced baseball.
He’s averaged 1.9 rWAR and 1.8 rWAR the last 4 seasons, and has been horribly inconsistent in doing so.
I’m pretty sure a “which Mike Moustakas – good Mike or bad Mike – will show up in the Bronx this season?” is not a player that is a good fit for the team, and I’m pretty sure he’d wear out his welcome pretty fast with my friends who are Yankees fans.
“When you see what (Jay) Bruce got from the Mets, it’s hard to see Moustakas getting more than that”
If that would be what Mouse and his agents are actually asking for he would sign somewhere in the next 8 hours. I wonder if he would sign a one year contract with for example the Royals, who can then trade him midseason to a contender with lack of production/injuries at 3b (Yankees and Angels don’t have much depth at that position), and then try again next year after another good season (hopefully).
Gunna go ahead and guess that Kipnis probably knows now lol
Lmao
Thinking if 3/$45-48 gets it done, don’t be surprised if the White Sox jump into the mix for Moose. They could use a quality stopgap at the Hot Corner, unless they really believe they have a shot at Machado next winter.
If Moose’s value is closer to Bruce’s. I’m not sure taking a one year pillow or a three year with a one year opt out would be that much of a help to him. In this blah class, he’s not doing terrifically. Next year could be much worse.
I am increasingly coming to believe that it’s the length of the contracts that players are asking for that is the issue, not necessarily the AAV.
I read that Heyman article over a Fanrag, that was linked here on another article, (here it is again for reference)
fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-scott-boras-weigh…
and what I noted was the way Boras presents the “data” from his computer which Heyman cites:
“”According to Boras, players who signed a six-year deal from 1998-2013 have averaged nearly 3.0 WAR per year (2.98), while players who signed three- or four-year deals from 2009-15 have averaged less than half that – 1.4 WAR. The players who signed the long deals also have averaged an .845 OPS while the position players on shorter-term deals have averaged a .750 OPS. Slightly different years were used, but you have to go back a little longer on six-year deals since you need longer lengths to get fair averages, and he’s including some non-free agents, which means a few long-term guys in his research were a bit younger (Joey Votto, for example). However, Boras has numbers that suggest over-30 players are still key contributors, as well..
“”According to his computer, there are as many 31-and-over players making major contributions as there are 25-and-under guys, and that’s remained consistent over the last decade. He says that of 147 batting qualifiers in 2008, 42 were 25 or under and 46 were 31 or over, and in 2017 of the 144 qualifiers, 40 were 25 or under and 44 were 31 or over. The average OPS in 2008 was .740 for the young guys, .748 for the older guys, while in 2017 it was .749 for the younger guys and .746 for the older guys.””
Boras uses 31 and over as his demarcation line, but IMHO this is a little misleading. I think it’s pretty clear that guys who are 31 and over can contribute, but when you’re asking for a contract of 7 years for a guy who’s 31 or 32 years old at the beginning of the next season, a team is going to be paying him until he’s 37 or 38.
So, what Heyman should have done other than regurgitate Boras’ data, is ask for a breakdown on a year-by-year basis. I’d wager that there’s a pretty steep decline in performance, even in Boras’ data, after a guys hits 35, and that the majority of the “equivalent performance” that Boras is trying to spin for PR purposes is generated by guys in their early 30’s, not in their mid-to-late 30’s.
I’m sure GM’s have that data and look at it differently than Boras presents it, and that it’s the length of contract and the predictable dead money at the end of those deals that is causing teams to balk.
Boras state that ““These players are just seeking what owners have done before…”.
Sure, of course he’s asking that, but it’s as if it hasn’t occurred to him that better informed owners aren’t/may not be willing to do it anymore.
Boras and other agents may be living in the past.
Boras’ computer is an Amiga ST.
“These players are just seeking what owners have done before…”.
People aren’t obligated to continue doing dumb things after they get smarter just because they used to do dumb things before.
The failures of the contracts he, Scott Boras, has secured for his past clients is the main reason for the market correction we are seeing today.
Someone tell him that when the cow dies of old age, the steak isn’t very good and will probably just be thrown away, so it does kinda matter when dinner is…
Yeah, I think we’re in 100% agreement.
I’ll elaborate: I think the players deserve lot of money – MLB teams have plenty of it – but the system got skewed by players not being able to hit FA until 6 – 7 years service time, which led to the LT deals for older guys that have turned out really badly.
As MLB teams have become more aware of the aging curve they’re not willing to pay guys into their late 30’s. I suspect they are willing to risk 1 -2 bad years at the end of a contract, but not 3 – 4, at least not on 8 figure contracts.
The solution for the players is probably going to be in the next CBA where they’ll get shortened team control and be able to hit FA earlier – and IMHO they’re going to have to be willing to strike to get it.
If teams are going to – in the post steroid era – purge their rosters of unproductive guys in their mid-30s, then I think the players are going to have to be willing to go to the mattresses to get paid earlier in their careers when they are most productive.
Maybe I’m wrong, and maybe we start to see the big FA’s this offseason get the contracts they want, but if teams were really going to bend to the wishes of the 30-something FAs, I think they would have already done it.
Boras doesn’t address this point: It’s not that teams have convinced the fan base to not care about winning, it’s that the fan base – independent of the teams – have figured out that the albatross contacts are an IMPEDIMENT to their team winning – and don’t want their teams giving aging players those kinds of contracts.
Also, two of Boras clients – Hosmer and Mous – even though they are younger – just aren’t that good. Mous will probably not get the deal he wants, and if Hosmer “does” have a 7-year offer(s) in hand, the reason he’s probably not taken them is he wants a higher AAV. Well, I’ll bet that whichever team gives Hosmer a 7-year contract winds up regretting the last couple of years of it.
The down votes one gets here when criticizing Boras are both consistent and curious.
MLBPA got rolled in this last CBA. Not sure how they put the genie in the bottle.
Yeah, I know. Maybe the Boras Corp. has paid trolls that do it for them.
If they’re mad at my evaluation of Hos and Mous, well, they’re the ones who performed at a 2.4 and 1.9 average rWAR respectively over the last 4 years – and inconsistently to boot.
IMO, that’s not the kind of player you give a big AAV, 7 year deal.
I don’t see the owners giving up years of control. Teams spend a ton of time and money developing players.
It would be much easier to raise the starting salaries for rookies. Make the major league minimum 2M. Free agents won’t get as much, but the players will get the same slice of the pie without having to wait/hope for FA.
I agree w/ Astros Fan. Teams (and the fans) are entitled to a few years from a good player they developed. Having a higher minimum is a good idea.
Oh, I agree. I think owners will fight tooth and nail to keep the years of control in place. That’s why I stated that the players have to be willing to strike – and perhaps strike – in order to get it.
What may happen is a combo of what you suggest and eliminating the teams’ ability to manipulate service time to what they do to keep an extra year of control.
The funny thing is that guys who are in the minors can become FA’s after 6 seasons. So, an 18 year old draftee can be held down for almost 6 years and then get called up and be controlled for an additional 6 years. That totally favors teams.
By focusing solely on MLB player benefits and not thinking/caring about minor leaguers, the players/MLBPA have missed the boat a little bit with the issue. If they’d focus on minor leaguers as well, and let them have membership in the union (maybe junior status?), then they could negotiate shorter TOTAL service time control of players that include their minor league time.
Sure, it would get complicated to negotiate, but if that happened it would also be an incentive for teams to call up players sooner.
We’ll see what happens.
My favorite part of this is how Boras compares the WARs of players on 6 year deals versus players on 3-4 year deals. He does realize only the best of best players sign 6+ year deals right? So you’re comparing a group of elite players to pretty good players and the elite players are coming out on top… Nice. That’s like when people make the argument “well this player should sign to play for Baltimore because he’s always hit well at Camden Yards” ignoring the fact that it’s much more about facing Baltimore’s terrible pitching than the stadium itself.
If you have a World Series ring you must be a high caliber players. Lol
Yeah, by that measure Eric Bruntlett deserved an 8 figure contract because he got a WS ring with the Phillies in 2008.
Boras plays Heyman like a fiddle ever season. Heyman cannot think for himself
An excellent leadoff hitter with pop, Blackmon is a very good all-around ballplayer. This guy can hit, runs well and hit for power. The Rockies would be well advised to give him a 1 or 2 year extension. I think he covers CF at Coors also.
And Charlie Blackmon would be an idiot to take a one or 2 year extension. Why come out in FA when you’re 34?
Who said anything about FA at age 34? The Rox can resign him again then. Charlie has been playing with one year deals for some time now. He will get a fat raise to $14MM for 2018. FYI Charlie loves playing with the Rockies, likes the clubhouse chemistry, and would like to continue being a part of this improving team. It’s not always about the FA $$$$.
Royals should let Hoz go and sign Moose and LoMo. At least gives you some affordable power at the corners. And then trade Herrera during the season if he plays well.