The latest buzz from the Twin Cities…
- The Twins made the Rays a trade offer involving Chris Archer “as recently as two weeks ago,” La Valle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports. The two clubs have often been linked in rumors this winter as Minnesota explores seemingly all free agent and trade options for starting pitching, with Archer and fellow Ray Jake Odorizzi both drawing attention from the Twins. Earlier reports stated that the Rays had interest in Max Kepler, and Neal notes that Kepler would be likely be targeted “as part of any package for Archer.” Of course, it remains to be seen if the Twins or any team can meet the Rays’ enormous asking price for the controllable young ace; Archer said last month that he feels that he’ll still be pitching in Tampa Bay in the coming season.
- Also from Neal’s piece, he lists several other free agent pitching options for the Twins, though Jake Arrieta doesn’t appear to be a likely candidate. “The Twins’ chances of signing Arrieta…are remote,” Neal writes. While Minnesota was willing to offer a five-year, $100MM+ deal to Yu Darvish, it doesn’t look like the club is willing to make such a splurge for Arrieta, and will instead look at less-expensive options.
- Major League Baseball’s investigation into assault accusations leveled against Miguel Sano isn’t likely to be completed before the Twins begin full Spring Training exercises, Brian Murphy of the St. Paul Pioneer Press writes. Past league investigations (as per the domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy) have varied in length, so there isn’t any clear timeline for when the results of the Sano case could be made public.
- With his career as a starting pitcher faltering in 2013, Zach Duke decided to embrace being a reliever after some blunt words from his wife Kristin, the newly-signed Twin tells Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. “She kind of had to beat it through my head that I was done as a starter,” Duke said. “My wife just kind of said, ’Listen, nobody is interested in you as a starter anymore. They’ve seen it, babe. There’s nothing changing. They know what they’re going to get as a starter, and nobody wants it anymore.’ ” Kristin’s advice ended up turning her husband’s career around, particularly after a late-season run of success out of the Reds’ bullpen in 2013. Over the last four seasons, Duke has a 2.85 ERA, 2.62 K/BB rate and a 10.0 K/9 over 198 2/3 relief innings.
This is starting to feel like the twins front office of old. Publicly say they’re going for the big players, settle for a Chris Tillman type
Not true. The cubs just had a better offer. Twins were more wise and didn’t offer him 6 years
That extra year only cost a million. He had an offer of 5-125. No biggy esp w opt out
Not to mention it dropped the Lux tax down from 25 to 21. Was a smart move.
The stupid move was JA turning down an extension for 4/110
Kepler for Odorizzi straight up. Win-Win scenario. This is easy. I should be a GM.
I’d hate that as a Twins fan as I don’t think highly of Odo.
Kepler might be a break out player this year. I hope twins don’t trade him
Why would two people downvote this? Kepler just turned 25 years old yesterday. He has an enormous upside. No way should the Twins part with him.
For Archer, sure. For odorizzi, no way in hell.
Santana for Odorizzi would be better get it done Stearns go brewers
Haha.
Leave a huge whole in their outfield for a #4 starter maybe a #3 if things go right for him. That’d be a horrible move for the Twins. If kepler starts hitting this year, you have one of the best outfields in baseball.
Best outfields in baseball lol let’s not push it.
Watch them in ’18; you may change your mind.
If Kepler takes a step forward at the plate, absolutely. Buxton too. That outfield has a ton of untapped potential in it. Already pretty good. None of them have hit their prime yet.
I’m pretty sure one of the best outfields doesn’t mean they’ll have the #1 outfield…If Buxton and Kepler take a step forward at the plate, they’ll be up there.
Wooooo
*Her husband’s….
Would be hard to give up Kepler. But Archer would fit in very nicely. Wonder what else they would need to include? Just no Royce Lewis please.
I have a hard time not seeing Lewis involved in a potential Archer deal. Other similar pitchers returned 60 or better FV prospects as the headliner, plus a 55 FV and more. Kepler is more like a 50, maybe 55 level prospect and even Lewis is only a 55. I stil think the Twins match up better for an Odorizzi deal than one for Archer.
You’re kidding right? How has Kepler rejuvenated his prospect ranking of a 45 to now its a 55. Dude isn’t an everyday player on a good team, and certainly not in the AL East with the lefties there. What did Kepler hit last year against LHP? Something under .500 OPS I believe. Look, he’s a nice player to get back in trade, but the ONLY way the Rays think of trading Archer to the Twins is for most of their top 4-5 players (including Lewis) AND Kepler, and even then I’d wait til the trade deadline if I were the Rays for a better offer. I just don’t like the Twins prospects for an Archer trade. As you said, a trade for Odo makes more sense.
Yeah, hard pass. Kepler as a headliner for archer is weak.
No one, including the twins, would part with “most of their top 4-5 players… AND [someone like] Kepler”. I assume you’re a rays fan, because that’s a significant overvaluation of archer.
I am a Rays fan, and I’ll admit you’re probably right on the value front. I just don’t like the Twins prospects as far as additions to the Rays Farm go. That being said, according to BA, the Twins have the #24 overall prospect (Lewis) and then 4 prospects between 92 and 97. That’s what I based my post on (and assuming Archer commands a Quintana like package of a top 20 prospect (arguably Lewis) and a top 50 prospect (which the Twins don’t have)). Looking at MLB though, I see that Lewis is the 20th ranked prospect, Romero is 68, Gonsalves is 78, and Gordon is 80. So perhaps the Twins have the firepower. I still don’t want another SS as a headliner (the Rays have a ton of SS in the system and have Willy Adames (#22 overall prospect) graduating this year). Romero and Gonsalves are fine, but don’t really fill a need, and Gordon would have to play 2B for the Rays, a position his bat doesn’t support. And as I said, Kepler is a platoon player on a good team, and a real liability on a team that regularly plays teams with strong LHP. So yeah, the Rays and Twins could probably make a trade work for Archer if you just look at prospect value, but I don’t think the Rays would be a better team today or in the future by trading Archer to Minnesota. Better to hold him for now and see what the trade deadline or next year’s offseason looks like. Archer’s under contract for 4 more years, so there’s no rush.
Seems like very valid points. I doubt a deal gets done there then
Kepler is bad against lefties, but he wasn’t like that in the minors. He may have been slow to adapt to them, but he eventually did. Hasn’t so far in MLB in a small sample size.
Oh the irony of saying Kepler would not be an everyday player on a good team when he was an everyday player last season for a team that made the playoffs.
I deserved that. 😉
Jeez, poor Zack.
Dude, you’ll be lucky to find a gal like her, even ignoring the fact that 99% of baseball wives are smoking hot. The reason guys try to hang on as starters is because starters make more money. The reason you want to make more money is for your family. So which would you rather have? A wife who says “Hey, I don’t care if you suck as a starter. I want that big money! You need to just get better at starting or I’m dumping you.” or “Listen, babe, I know how much you love baseball and you want to play as long as you can but you’re just not cutting it as a starter. Maybe a switch to reliever would prolong your career.” He is a lucky guy.
Sounds like Zach’s wife has the chops to be in the front office.
Archer would be the top start get of the season. I personally think highly of Kepler, but at the end of the last season I think he sat on the shelf too often. I think if the twins are planning that why not move him?
Kepler/Gordon maybe avoid the Romero,gonsalves group. Adding Jorge might be high to that group, but he hasn’t overwhelmed me. Maybe toss a kohl Stewart in there though.
The Cubs stamped “Buyer Beware” across Arrieta’s forehead for all to see.
How about Twins unload Hughes’ contract to off-set Greinke’s big contract? D’backs toss in $37M. Twins give up Gonsalves, Romero and Banuelos.
I don’t think greinke has that much value anymore. Gonsalves’ inclusion us an overpay
I think Greinke’s Ace-like performance last year says he has plenty of value.
Greinke’s contract is basically $21M to $22M per year for 4 years, plus $12.5M in deferred payments each year for 3 years, 2024, 2025 and 2026, under my trade scenario. D’backs pick up the rest.
Hughes’s $13.2M contract would off-set Greinke’s contract for the next two years, so the Twins get an Ace for $7.8M for 2 years. Mauer’s $23M also comes off the books after this year, so Twins can easily handle Greinke’s contract for years 3 and 4.
The ace like performance in the wild card game? No thanks!
Imagine thinking only starters who perform well in wildcard games are the only pitchers worth a dam
Kershaw must be terrible. Wouldn’t want the best pitcher in baseball on my team….
Hmm
Sale gave up 6 runs in a Boston loss he must be bad too. Trade him.
Arz said they aren’t paying any of ZG contract. You be happy to get them to toss in 10 mil
if you can’t read the article with one typo, there is a larger problem here. context gives it away
Duke’s wife is quite a smart lady.
If only the Red Sox could trade for Archer
Why? Because he’s 2-12 vs. BOS? I realize that W-L is not the most important stat but even without BOS he’s under .500 in his career. Is 100 decisions too small a sample size to say that the guy simply underperforms his tools? 100 decisions! And his team has been decent to above-average for his whole career. No way I’m emptying my farm system for him.
I’m guessing this may be a joke with regards to a few former Rays starts…Crawford & Price come to mind – albeit through massive contracts in FA rather than via trade.
Max Kepler is a very big part of the Twins high energy/high potential core 5 position players that played and won together in the minors, and then all came up within a year. His tools would have any smart team asking about him, thinking the Twins could be fooled by his subpar, but improving BA/OBP. I get that. I’d really like the Twins to package a bunch of players for the M’s Paxson thinking that they’ve had enough with his injury history. It’s not gonna happen though. If the Twins can’t get a high-end starter with team control for some combination of Gibson, Mejia, Presley, Mays, Vargas, Grossman, Jorje, Enns and Stewart, then I’m all in favor of signing a Tillman or two and wait on Gonsalves, Romero and possibly Littell to arrive. Lessons from the Royals, Cubs and Astros: do NOT mess with your productive young core, and you may be rewarded in a big way.
The Twins aren’t going to get high end anything even if they combined all those players together in one deal.
Then you haven’t been paying attention to some of the less established ML fringe players who’ve been traded this offseason. There are teams who see the change of scenery potential of Gibson, Presley and Vargas, and others who can be patient in developing Mejia, Mays and Jorje.
Then again, you wanted to trade Kepler, Gordon, Romero +1 for Archer, so I think you vastly underestimate the Twins true talent level.
That’s a huge leap there. Those players aren’t bringing you back any top starter. Most of those guys you listed are busted prospects or at best average major leaguers…. You’re vastly overrating that talent pool.
Sure, fringe players have been traded but have they been traded for high end players? I recall only one time that may have happened, the Stanton trade. Cole brought back Musgrove and more. Musgrove is better than Gibson and so far better than Mejia (small sample size for both).
You’ve listed an old number five pitcher, a young number four pitcher, a young number five pitcher, two to three guys who are BP at best (Pressly has closer stuff but so far unable to harness it, May needs to stay healthy and will get a shot in the rotation maybe a number four if lucky otherwise back end of BP), a below average 1B who doesn’t hit well enough to DH (Vargas), a DH who doesn’t have enough power for DH but gets the job done better than Vargas and Stewart who no one know what to expect out of. And you think some combination of those players is going to lead to high end talent in return? Key words, high end talent. Meaning Berrios level or better for a pitcher and like a Dozier or Sano as a hitter. You think those guys bring that level of talent back? If you do, then you and I have very different definitions of high end talent.
And yes, I would do that trade in a heartbeat for Archer. As would 90 percent of other Twins fans from what I’ve seen on Twins sites and twitter. There is a small minority that says no way.
Even the Stanton trade with all that financial commitment brought back a fringe top 100 prospect to the Fish.
I couldn’t remember who all was in that trade besides Castro. I just knew it was mostly a money dump so if I was going to locate anything that was close my best guess was that one.
Yep, I agree. It’s a curious but common syndrome of ‘90 percent of other Twins fans’ to underestimate the talent level of the team, whether it’s their key young players (Kepler, Gordon, Gonsalves, etc), or players that contribute despite some struggles and/or growing pains (Gibson, Mejia, Presley, etc).
Even the Nats would admit in private that they overpaid for Eaton, injury or not, and will be reminded often when they watch Giolito dominate; as a result of that trade, lots of people think every talented player is worth at least 3 top rated prospects, including one future star. In other words they’re not differentiating between Chris Sale (worth it) and Adam Eaton (not worth it).
The key word I used earlier was IF, not high-end. As in, don’t make a trade IF you can’t get high-end without sacrificing your most valued players.
Fish could have got more for Stratton. Played right into the Yanks hands. His NTC killed the fish.
No thanks!! If you think that’s archers return keep dreaming. Royce + Kepler *might* get the conversation started…
Yes, you did say say if. “If the Twins can’t get a high end starter with team control by only using some combination of these mostly blah players then…”
Why would you ever think those players would ever get you a high end anything? That’s why I don’t understand the statement. We know those players don’t get a high end anything ever. What team is falling all over themselves to get Kyle Gibson with those career numbers?
I agree Eaton is not high end talent, but I don’t get why he’s brought up in regards to an Archer or a Sale. Sale is the ultimate high end. Archer is high end as he’s a number two, but he’s way under Sale. The only player in the Twins org who has a chance at being Archer is Berrios. I guess Romero could, but he’d have to reach his absolute ceiling…so he’d basically have to be perfect which so far he hasn’t been which some of that is due to health.
If the Twins had a better farm system, they wouldn’t have had so many 90 loss seasons. Not every single player works out and that is what Ryan always thought would happen, so he would never trade any of them. The Twins have zero pitchers who are guaranteed to become an Archer. That’s why it would make sense even though yeah it’d hurt to give up Kep and a Gonsalves/Romero is just the cost of doing business. If the Twins don’t get massively better pitching, they go nowhere. The past 20 years of Twins history is proof of that. Their only shot at something really good was their surprise deep run which almost took them to the WS. The other shot was when they had Santana, Liriano and Radke. They can have all the offense in the world, but you can’t compete with the Astros, Dodgers, Indians or Yankees without massively improved pitching.
I think Lewis is untouchable and I used to think it would take Lewis too, but I’ve changed my mind on that. Especially now that we know the Rays like Kepler. Once you start adding MLB talent the prospect cost goes down. As Kepler is already proven, not to be a stud, but to be so far a league average overall player who is very young, provides good defense, and still has a ton of upside.
There’s a big disconnect in your logic between not wanting to lose Kepler and being all for Chris Tillman or two. You are correct that the twins have a very solid core, but they desperately need rotation help if they are to actually contend. And they need front end rotation help, not guys to contend for the 5th rotation slot or spot starts. Those are the roles that you try to find in house out of the minor leagues. Their window to compete with this core probably isn’t terribly long, they’ve failed the offseason if they don’t get at least one pitcher with a better recent track record than Kyle Gibson. And even that is a low bar for what they probably actually need.
Duke’s wife is exactly what you want. Someone that will be there to support you, but tell you what you need to hear, not just what you want to hear.
And smart enough to realize that MLB reliever money is way better than AAA starter money I assume too.
Indeed.
As is often the case, there’s a disconnect between some of the the data-driven fans, and people who watch and study the game on a daily basis. The Twins would be smart not to overpay for Chris Archer, who isn’t an ace, or a star. The Rays are trying to rebuild quickly, and hope to turn highly rated prospects into starters as soon as possible. Tampa Bay won’t have a winning season again in 2018, and needs some kind of hope on the field to get public support(and financing) for the hundreds of millions of dollars for a proposed new stadium. There has been an enormous backlash over the Evan Longoria trade, he was the player(not Chris Archer), which had his number worn by many fans in the area.
Pitchers cannot be solely evaluated on strikeouts per nine innings, Archer’s inconsistency is showing up on those bad pitches which have been costing the Rays the last two seasons. There are times when Archer does appear to be elite, but real aces have consistency over the whole season.
Can’t be…Steve “Mad Dog” Duemig on MLBTR?!?
Archer even up to the Red Sox for ERod.
Archer has a few years left before FA.
The Sox need another RH in the rotation.
The Sox team may bring out the best in him. Big crowds to pitch in front of. A good WHIP–200 + inn’s. Having Sale and Price in the same rotation.
Good K . He’s a young guy that’s had a very good pitching coach (Hickey).
Lmao why would the Rays take Eduardo Rodriguez for Archer without several other pieces being thrown in?
Yeah, and we’ll throw in Snell & Faria for Eck’s mustache
Damn, Kristen Duke is hardcore. Right, though.
A little off subject but I think the best landing place for JDM is Colorado. He’s perfect for RF at Coors, replacing CarGo.
They can certainly afford him at 5/125.
Considering I’m not certain where Nolan and LaMahu end up in the next years.
Thoughts?
So they face a decision obviously. Lynn, Cobb and Arrietta are QO guys. And Archer will cost a kings ransom. No doubt Archer is probably the top choice at this point but are any of the other 3 worth a draft pick? (Provided they sign for more than $50mm.)
Is Archer worth the farm? What do they do?
Yes, Jake Arrieta is easily worth a 2nd round draft pick. Is he worth the money? That could be debated but there’s no debate whether Jake Arrieta is worth a 2nd rounder.Lynn or Cobb are easily worth giving up a 2nd rounder as well if that’s the piece you need right now. A 2nd round pick isn’t prohibitive to making your major league ball club better.