The Cubs “put in one last call” to Jake Arrieta before completing their six-year, $126MM deal with Yu Darvish, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Heyman says Epstein respectfully inquired as to whether Arrieta would have been willing to accept “a deal believed to be similar to the one offered to Darvish should Darvish turn them down.” According to Heyman, “while Arrieta surely appreciated the gesture, he wasn’t immediately prepared to accept a six-year deal for what was believed to be for a similar annual salary.”
A careful reading of Heyman’s phrasing is advised, as he at no point states that the Cubs actually made a six-year offer to Arrieta. Nor could one accurately say Arrieta turned down a six-year offer from the Cubs, as we erroneously did in an earlier version of this post. Last Wednesday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that “the Cubs and Arrieta barely even engaged in contract talks this winter.” If that’s correct, it would be odd for Epstein to even have made an intimation of a six-year offer around that same time.
It isn’t uncommon for teams or their free agents to touch base with each other one final time before either side is on the verge of a move, either out of mutual respect and/or genuine interest to see if a deal could be reached. (For one example from this winter, Carlos Santana’s representatives kept the Indians up to date on his market just to leave open the possibility that the Tribe could’ve found the payroll space to keep Santana in Cleveland.) It also isn’t an uncommon tactic for a team to approach several similarly-valued free agents with similar contact offers to see which, if any, accepts first.
Certainly, it doesn’t seem that Arrieta or his agent Scott Boras felt the need to jump at the Cubs’ offer, as Boras is still confident his client will land a deal closer to the much higher price tag Boras was reportedly seeking earlier this offseason. While the lack of free agent activity around the sport is “not traditional,” Boras said, “it seems normal (now). The free agent market is now under way. For me, it’s December 10th, not February 10th.” Heyman gives an idea of Arrieta’s possible current asking price, writing, “Some might have seen the Cubs’ last-minute inquiry as a chance to end a difficult free-agent season happily, but others understood that Arrieta probably wasn’t going to take a much lower deal than Jon Lester’s in light of the fact that a strong case could be made he’s outperformed Lester over the last few years.” Heyman’s “case” for Arrieta as compared to Lester is certainly worth debating. Lester signed a six-year, $155MM deal with the Cubs on the eve of his 31st birthday, on the back of a huge walk year that resulted in a fourth-place Cy Young finish and a big market bidding war. Arrieta turns 32 soon and is coming off a good, but not great, year. He’s also battling a historically slow free agent market that is likely to leave at least a few big names disappointed.
Heyman lists the Brewers, Nationals, Phillies, Twins, and Cardinals as “the most logical teams” that could still make a play for Arrieta, though he notes that the latter two clubs seem like longer shots. Milwaukee, Washington, and Philadelphia have all been linked to Arrieta at various points this winter and, now that Darvish is off the board, Arrieta might be the top target for a Brewers team that has money to spend and a need for front-of-the-rotation pitching. The Phillies also have a glaring rotation need but may still be a year away from serious spending (their deal with Santana notwithstanding), while the Nats would have to carve out payroll space or simply accept a big luxury tax overage in order to sign Arrieta.
that collusion tho
Do you have any idea what defines “collusion”?
No he doesn’t understand collusion
I interpreted his comment as tongue in cheek.
As did I.
More like thumb-in-butt
No; definitely tongue-in-cheek.
The only collusion taking place is between Boras and his clients to try to squeeze more pennies into every deal.
He must’ve really not wanted to be a cub anymore
No it’s not that he just thinks he’s worth $200 million!
Boras must be sweating just a bit these days. He’s telling his clients they will get paid more and they may not.
He’s wrong.
Time will tell but if the discussion was only abstract in nature, it could simply be that Arrieta didn’t believe Darvish was going to accept the offer. Arrieta may get a higher average but does he get six years?
You would think for someone in their 30’s especially in baseball that the size of the contract would matter as much as or more than the annual. Its their last paycheck.
Why not stay where you’ve won and likely have a home if you’re happy? Who is paying him more and longer? Players just seem to be caught in an adjustment that they will try to correct during the next negotiations.
that’s just it – when they say Epstein asked whether Arrieta would accept “a deal believed to be similar…”, I ask “Similar how?”
Similar in AAV or similar in years? The same total value but shorter years so a higher AAV? It’s too unclear to make a determination.
Who would? Flash in the pan.
Three years running, flashing in that pan! Dope.
In a weak division, and they regressed substantially this last year.
The Cubs? Well, that happens when a team wins the WS. Guessing LA won’t have a regression since they lost.
Your meme is getting old.
Hahahahahaha. He might regret that…actually scratch that he will regret that.
What a bad decision on Arrietas part, turn down 21 million per year for 6 years. That’s crazy..
I doubt he’ll get those years offered. He may get the average in salary, though. Should’ve taken it though. All this time that has gone by, I’m sure they know by now what they’re willing to accept.
Please Nats – don’t sign Arrieta. At a massive discount? sure. At anything close to what Darvish got? No thanks.
agreed!!!!
Yeah – definitely don’t want someone with heart. He’d never fit in.
You can’t be serious. Never seen someone give up so fast when he was in Baltimore after given every opportunity to turn it around.
Same with the Cardinals. It’s the years not the money, though.
I dont believe this report. No way Arrieta rejects that deal.
I agree with you, and to intimate that he only had a tiny window to make a decision seems odd, since clearly he and Boris would have discussed option. Seems highly unlikely that any of the remaining suitors would go higher that 126
Exactly right. No team would operate in such a rash manner after such a long offseason. Makes no sense.
Arrieta openly said he wouldn’t take a hometown discount. Theo made one last call to see if he would. It does not appear to be rocket science.
Clearly the Cubs and Arrieta/Boras have been in touch multiple times since the end of last season. Once they agreed in principle w Darvish, they probably just picked up a phone to reach out and say, hey, we have this deal, you want it, we’ll bring you back, if not we’re going in a different direction.
Honestly I’m surprised they even offered, seemed as though they felt Jake was a risky investment and rumors were Cubs only wanted to give him @ 3yrs.
Agreed somethings not adding up. That’s a good money deal on a good team built to win it all again now. What more do you want geez
Plus he wouldn’t have to move. Millionaires hate that.
I make 48k a year, I f****ing hate moving too.
I have (-$5.31) in my bank account right now. If the Cubs wanted to pay me in rent to work in their front office, I’d move to Chicago right now despite the fact that I can’t stand the cold.
Players are paid up to $2,200 if traded or promoted to the MLB (other than Sept call-ups etc) so I wouldn’t be surprised if moving expenses are worked into some FA contracts too.
Actually right after the playoffs the house that Jake has rented for the last 4 years was put on the market and sold. I would assume it’s still sitting on a truck and the driver is waiting on the call of which city to drive to.I actually figured the Rangers seeing that’s where he lives in the off season and they lost darvish after he was traded.
I know huh it’s hard to believe!
Yeah, he’ll look back on this decision in a few weeks and regret it… have fun in your FA spring ball sandlot
Seriously interested, for which team is this a good idea?
At 6 or 7 years… Just want to hear the pro argument.
Never gonna happen, but Orioles….maybe Rangers, Brewers? Where does it even make sense for him to land?
If it’s in Milwaukee I can promise it won’t total the Darvish deal years or money.
Rangers preferred Darvish and couldn’t match the Cubs’ offer. They could still go for Lynn or Cobb, but barring an epiphany on Boras’ part that his clients aren’t worth what he told them they are, Arrieta won’t be a Ranger
The rangers didn’t even make a competitive offer, they weren’t that interested in him.
I would rather have Alex Cobb to 4years 55-60 million
Or Lynn at the same contract. Heck let’s take both at that contract.
Being a Crew fan I would love to see Lynn and Cobb at 4/60M each vs Arrieta at 4/100M.
Orioles? Are you kidding me, those cheap asses won’t even give someone a 4 year deal now because they got burned by Ubaldo. If they won’t give Cobb or Lynn a contract Arrieta ain’t getting a damn thing.
Cobb and arrieta are gonna get at least 5 years. Good luck with that.
Cobb won’t get 5 years from a team unless a team option is attached to it. Even then that might be a stretch. No team will give 5 guaranteed years to a guy with his injury history. Not to mention that would take him from age 30-35 seasons.
Nah not a team opt out. It’s a player opt out that is always going to be a decrease in salary compensated by more years guaranteed to the player. Also pitchers in the top 2 tiers from 30-35 always get paid.
A team opt out is more money not more years. You can’t get your cake and wait it too.
Did you guys clearly not read I said TEAM OPTION. That is not a team opt out. I said Cobb only gets a 5th year if the team has control over if they pick it up or not. 4/60M with a team option to go to 5/80M or a 4M buyout.
I know the market is different but we’ve seen Ian Kennedy, mike leake, and wei-yin Chen get 5 year deals for 70m-80m in the past two years. I put Cobb in that tier and yes there will be an option but it’s still 5 years.
I’m not disagreeing with the money. The deal will be for 5 but the team will have the option to pick it up or not with a buyout attached is my guess
Seems Cobb is expecting 20m a year. Can’t see how he gets it unless teams start to panic a bit and bid against each other.
Brewers will try to sign him for slightly more AAV but less years. Then Boras can pretend it was worth it. 4/100 or 5/125 maybe.
In my book 5 yrs at 125 is a lot better then 6 yrs at 126….
So, you don’t like the extra year $1 million?
“ . . . you don’t like the extra year $1 million?”
Not clear what you’re asking. As a normal person—obviously a year @$1M sounds great.
But from Artieta’s POV, he’s probably thinking that if he is able to pitch that sixth year, meaning both physically able and able to pitch well enough to remain in MLB, he will be able to obtain more than $1M for doing so.
Even if at that point in his career he is only good enough to work in relief. Even if he’s only an innings-eating, MLB average starter. How many times has Bartolo Colon been paid @$10M or more for doing less? Comprende?
Try 2/45 with a 3rd year club option for 25 mil and a 4 mil buyout, player can opt-out after year 1
I’m not sure if the brewers would want to give whatever starter they go after a 1 year opt out. That would put them in the same pitching whole they are this offseason. I like the idea of a 3yr/70M though. Give him an opt out after year 2 and the 25M for year 3 option.
Here’s the deal, no pitcher wants to pitch in that extreme hitters park in Milwaukee. They will NEVER get a free agent pitcher on a discount unless said pitcher is injured or below average. That’s reality.
Since when is 23.3M per for Arrieta a discount? Didn’t realize an opt out after year two making the deal 2/45M is discounted.
Wrigley Field (5th) was a more extreme offensive park in 2017 than Miller Park (8th).. And Yankee Stadium was 2nd in HR rate, Miller Park was 12th.
would be funny if he doesn’t get an offer any better than that. there is a word greed that comes to my mind.
Why is the player greedy for wanting to make more money but the team isn’t greedy for wanting to pay the player less and keep the difference?
Dude get off here with that. Do you not comprehend it’s the owners money? A 32 year old declining pitcher turning down 6yr/126M (possibly up to 150M) is greed. He isn’t even worth that much. To turn that down is just stupidity.
Totally acceptable to bash players greed but not owners? The owners buy a team, players draw fans to the stands. Billionaires don’t need your protection, but they will happily take your tax dollars to build them a stadium and profit immensely off of it.
If Arrieta turned down 6/126 I personally think he should have taken it. I have a hard time seeing him get more than that, but maybe he wants to play elsewhere. Certainly won’t call him greedy for wanting all he can get. Or picking a mutually interested team to play for, as he earned that right to be a free agent and make his own decision.
“Do you not comprehend it’s the owners money?”
What makes it their money? People are willing to pay to see the best players compete against each other. The money starts in the pockets of consumers, not owners. How many tickets would they sell, what would their teevee and internet rights be worth if they fielded a team of nobodies?
“Dude get off here with that.”
GFY. I’m not here to please you.
“To turn that down is just stupidity.”
You may well be correct about that. But we have to see what he eventually signs for before reaching that conclusion, no?
Well just look at teams like Philly, Mets, Toronto, Giants all had “nobodies” last year and still were successful financially. Yes it is totally acceptable to bash players greed but not owners. How many MLB teams would there be if there weren’t Owners who fork over multi-millions? Zero. Most owners aren’t in it to make a profit. Players who turn down 6yr/126M like Arrieta because they feel they are worth 200M is greed.
“Most owners aren’t in it to make a profit” Lol what? That’s exactly why they own a MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL TEAM. There’s so much money to be had in pro sports. I don’t blame the players for wanting a bigger slice of the profits.
Most owners aren’t in it to make a profit? What? You’re kidding right? It’s a BUSINESS
and the whole idea is to make a profit! How do you think they got so rich in the 1st place!
Bashing the players for wanting more money? Idk about anyone else but I want as much money as my employer is willing to pay me. These guys have X amount of years to make as much money as they can to hopefully live a comfortable life for them and their families. I’m 100% pro players bring “greedy”. I could give a damn about the owners.
Amen
Majorflaw- when tickets, concessions, merch, etc were the primary revenue source, the fans were the consumer. But that ended a decade ago. Now it’s TV deals that drive the money for owners. And because of that, the fans are no longer the consumer – they’re the product. It isn’t your money they want you to spend, it’s your time. They sell that at huge profits to TV networks- who in turn sell it to advertisers.
“Live a comfortable life for them and their families”. Trust me I am pro player to an extent. But that comment is delusional when it comes to the upper end guys. For example JDM sitting on 5/125 or Arrieta turning down 6/125 or Hosmer at 7/140 range. Can’t live “comfortably” on that? Need to hold out for 175M? I am all for players getting what they are worth. What makes me mad is when they extremely over value themselves. Not to mention without owners there are no teams so I’m pretty sure you do give a damn about them if you like baseball. Unless you can fork over the millions to own a team that is.
Greed? I suppose you accept 25,000 for your job that usually pays 40,000….despite the fact that you have no unusual skill set and you’re advancing in age. Get a clue.
Agreed. But if you don’t have a crowd present how soon will people stop watching on TV? I would bet 30% of seats are promotional or giveaways, (veterans, childrens orgs, churches, charities) in most cities. Of course there’s always the guy trying to get past the doorman offering side-deal corporate ticket packs, etc.
Again trying to compare us normal joes to MLB athletes is not logical in the least. In a normal workforce age and experience matter. In baseball age can sometimes hurt you like in Arrieta’s case. I’m also not sure what “no unusual skill set” means.
A “pro athlete to an extent” lol that’s funny! Those “delusional upper end guys” set the market for everybody else. What does it matter to you if they “over value themselves?” Does or effect you in any way? As easy as you say there is no baseball without the owners there’s no baseball without the players. I’ve never bought a ticket to see Bill DeDwitt, The Rickets family, or Jim Crane own a team. Maybe you have? I have bought tickets to see Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Jose Altuve play though. The players deserve and have the right to every dollar they can get from the owners.
So baseball couldn’t survive without Pujols, Trout or Harper? Yes it could. It could also certainly survive without JDM, Arrieta, Lynn, Cobb, Moose and Hos. The guys who continue to hold our because they are 200M dollar talent. I’m pretty sure I never once said players don’t deserve to make what they rightfully earn. However cases like Arrieta where Boras is trying to say he’s worth 7/200M or hos is worth 8/200M is overvaluing them. Then to come out and whine that the owners are only giving you 5/125M is where I have the problem.
Dude do you not comprehend the owners have no product without the players?
But the players are working at Jiffy Lube without the owners.
It works both ways.
Ok which cane first the chicken or the egg? Not really sure why you care what Scott Boras and his clients do but feel free to be upset by it… I also didn’t realize you have trolled this entire article. For being a “pro athlete to an extent” you sure do seem to have a lot of free time on your hands. Btw could you elaborate for us what you mean by “pro athlete to an extent?”
Jeffrey Loria, one of the most inept owners in baseball, watched a franchise that was valued at $158.5 MM when he bought sell for $1.2 billion 15 years later.
Don’t cry no tears for the owners.
No one said what you’re saying.
Got to give Boras credit. His clients put everything on the pass line.
Can’t give him credit if Arrieta ends up signing for fewer years and less money.
Unless a big market team steps up I don’t see it happening. He won’t get more money from Milwaukee, Minnesota or Baltimore..
Arrieta should have accepted……
Bore-a** needs to re-think his ………
You just need to go wiki Scott Boras. Nothing about him is a a$$
How many Boras clients have signed contracts so far this offseason?!!???
Pretty crazy. For a guy that went 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA last year whose last two years in a row are heading in the wrong direction, for him to turn down a $21M/year for 6 year contract is just plain not bright. If Darvish gets $21M/year, Arrieta may not get more than $18M/year and teams have to be worried about his declining performance, and I would think 5 years would be the max length.
I would agree. I can’t see a team giving Arrieta more than 5yr/95-100M at most now. Boras isn’t the brightest bulb.
56 career wins yikes
You misread the stats page. He’s 88-56.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arrieja01.shtml
Pretty much every pitchers numbers trending in wrong direction due to the juiced ball. Velocity drop a worry though
It’s the metrics about how much they didn’t hit the ball on him in the past, something the juiced ball shouldn’t cause. The 2 MPH drop over last two seasons saw his Swinging Strike rate drop from 11.1 to 8.7. Those are scary warning signs that took his K/9 with it.
If he truly turned down 6yr/125M Boras really doesn’t have his clients best interest in mind. With the Cubs out of the picture, Yankees and Dodgers unlikely to make payroll space for Arrieta that leaves few suitors. I can promise you teams like the brewers or twins won’t be coming close to 6/125M.
But he might get 4/100 from one of those teams…..then sign a 2/35 deal afterwards……unless he continues to decline.
but he might blow out his shoulder the first week after he signs and there goes 26 million. not that he would be hurting financially or anything but that’s still a lot of money to pass on.
I can see that possibly but to get more than $126 million I’d be beyond blown away!!!
I agree he could get 4/100 from one of those teams. Hitting the market at 36 is playing with Fire though.
$100 Million is a Boatload of money. His grandkids won’t have to work. Sure, leaving another 26 Mil on the table is stupid……for sure…….but it’s so much money that it really doesn’t matter.
Remember…..Jake has already made over $32 Million in his career.
He’s already “set-for-life”
Not to sound ungrateful, but unless they have a smart investor or humble beginnings it’s really hard to keep money that you get early in your working life. Sports and some high paying construction jobs (although are nothing alike) have a key similarity. You make a lot of money spending time away from family and ruining your body.
The government takes away a lot. You end up spending a lot on your friends or family lest you look cheap, you spend money on convenience and luxury to offset your horrible schedule and hard work.
Yes 30-100 million is a lot of money, but it changes people, especially when it’s not residual. Most lottery winners lose their winnings and they don’t even go through the tough work.
With that said I’m all for players maximizing their money, I just can’t believe Jake would turn down that much money to play for the Cubs.
With his steady decline, he probably won’t even get a contract offer.after 4 yrs.
he will get 4/100 i bet
“If he truly turned down 6yr/125M Boras really doesn’t have his clients (sic) best interest in mind.”
Nonsense. It’s one thing to suggest that Boras has mistimed or misread this year’s free agent market, it has happened before. But it’s quite another to suggest that he isn’t honestly representing his clients.
Whose interests is he serving if not his clients? I’m sure you understand that Boras gets paid based on a percentage of what the client makes. How would Boras be helping himself in any manner by giving bad advice to his clients?
Boras is trying to get 2018 STUD FA prices for the 2017 middle of the road crop of FA’s. Money just isn’t there for them. I believe he has misread the market and teams buying into the sabermetrics. Only time will tell but I think his boys end up in the JD Drew boat, far from what they wished for. Hos may get 7/147150 but JDM and Jake end up with dik sandwich.
If the report is true that the Cubs had a 6 year offer on the table totaling 125M how can you advise your client to decline? Not to mention if the terms we roughly the same as Darvish there would’ve been an opt out clause.
He’s seen the same market standstill we all have this offseason. He’s clearly stuck in the good old times when teams would throw 200M at anyone.
Actually it doesn’t say that was the cubs offer but rather they made a last minute call to I’m but didn’t disclose the teems.
Because good agents know they can top it. This isn’t splitting the atom. In the end, Boras is rarely wrong. And if he is, his clients aren’t playing for ham sandwiches.
Highly likely the “offer” was never even floated to Boras/Arrieta. Another fake news article
Boras is loud. if this isnt true he will definitely say something publicly
Phillies need an ace in their young rotation , They will be a sleeping giant next season, I have them getting Machado or Harper.
No chance. Harper will be a Cub and Machado a Yankee. Unless the Phillies drastically overpay.
I guess the Cubs are going to trade Heyward?……somewhere….somehow?
Gotta clear the payroll and the position.
As much as I don’t like the cubs depending on the deal they could go into luxury tax range for one season. Plus CF is a clear spot for Heyward and Harper in Right. Hope it doesn’t happen but Harper is the talent you’d spend over the tax for.
The clearing of Heyward’s contract is to free up money to extend Bryant and hopefully extend Rizzo……..but that’s going to take a TON of cash (Rizzo)……
Bryant & Rizzo BOTH FA’s in 2022 (yes that’s a long way away, but the longer they wait………) Rizzo will be 32 that season……Bryant 29
The cubs are a few years from breaking the bank on a new tv contract which should pay them over 150 million a year so Heywards contract won’t stand in the way of Harper. My question is would you rather have harper 8@240 and let Bryant play out his contract and possibly walk or not have Bryant and Harper in the same line up for 4 years?
I am totally fine running the risk that Bryant ends up going somewhere else in 2023 if you end up with 4 years of those two together.
Assuming Almora becomes the leadoff hitter to have a lineup of Almora, Bryant, Harper, Rizzo, Contreras, Russell, Baez, Heyward is insane. And yes I’m hoping Schwarber regains trade value this year and they trade him at some point for Colome or something.
Harper needs to have an MVP like season this year and if so that contract would be justifiable.
Anyone that thinks the Cubs don’t have the money for Harper needs to go back to day one and start over….
Harper to cubs is still on. Yes you lose bryant to Boston in 4 years but you take advantage while the window is wide open. The only way I see harper staying is if the Nats win this year. If not it’s north side bound baby.
The only snag in Harper to Chicago is boras. Something tells me that he won’t forget what just happened with Jake. The market has corrected its self this year but boras has leverage with Harper next year. The money we will throw at him is going to be unreal and boras will prob find a way to win.
Yeah, but Arrieta isn’t an ace.
Philly has the pieces to trade for a guy like Archer. He could be their Ace…..
Not Arrieta…..he’ll barely be a #4 by the time they reach the WS.
Rays would want Kingery and/or possibly Sanchez, though. Hard to give up one of those guys. I think Brew Crew swings a deal for Archer
The crew should make a trade for archer but they won’t give up their young horses to get him. The phils will surely not give up Kingery and Sanchez for him. But phils will give up 3-4 other real mlb pitchers for him.
Except the Rays have no desire to trade Archer, especially this late in the offseason
I’m sure I’ll be wrong on this, but you would think Boras would have a better idea of the market. I can’t see Jake getting a 6 year offer from any other team, or even a $21M/AAV. But admittedly, I am just basing my opinion off what I read here.
I think there’s a couple teams that would sign him at 4/90 or 4/100.
Money is flowing from the TV deals…..and a 4 yr deal is easier for a team to commit to.
Brewers gonna go all out to get him
He’s not going to beat what yu got
If true Arrieta, Boras or both are MORONS for not grabbing that deal.
unless Boras has another offer worth similar salary and similar length, I don’t really understand how he could pass this deal up!
Boy Arrieta needs to fire Boras asap
“For me it’s December 10th not February 10th”. Go ahead and tell your clients that. Let them sit another 3 months into April/May..
If he was my agent I’d fire him for having that attitude.
Lol
He ain’t going to get more than that
Anything past 3 yrs for Jake will be money pi$$ed in the wind. I wouldn’t go beyond 3/$50-55 on him. By the 3rd year he will be a #4 at best. My bet is Boras will take a credibility hit after this season. Hosmer and JDM are in for a disappointment as well.
2/36 for Jake.
Wow, you seriously undervalue him.
Boras screwed over Arrieta big time and Jake is too stupid to realize it.
st louis doesn’t need an albatross arrieta
Lmao that’s crazy. Arrieta will have one or two more good years before the decline becomes very noticeable
Cubs dodged a bullet there.
They for sure did by not signing Arrieta. Not sure if they dodged the Yu bullet come years 5 & 6 though if he opts in (which I would assume he would)
Why is everyone so sure Yanks will sign Machado. If Torres and Andujar work out where would he play
If they workout they are trade chips. Not to mention Gardner isn’t long for LF. Judge in left, Stanton in right, Machado at 3B and Andujar at DH even
Machado will not go back to third. That’s why he is playing SS for us now. He said he wants to be at his natural spot
Asking if you would accept an offer is not an offer. It likely was an effort to get Darvish to accept less and Arrieta and his agent saw through that.
Theo leaked it to feed the “blame the players” meme and perhaps to help Jake out to let other teams wary of the Cubs lack of interest know there was interest, fake as it was
Cubs dodged a bullet. If I were an AL team I wouldn’t pay more than 1/10 and of course the team would need to prorate That because signing before the draft would be idiotic. We saw how the kid did in the AL and his stuff isn’t declining. It’s sinking harder than Rollie could manage.
Lynn and Cobb are the only free agents worth anything. A mid- rotation pitcher whose only success came on the weak NL central(aside from the team he’s on) is not an asset.
His decline is worse than Lincecum, and still years later I would rather have Lincecum because the pay is nothing for the same result.
are u smokin reefer with Timmy again, Pablo?
Funny how my Boras comment was deleted and your comment changed.
I now as journalist wonder about this site. I’ve seen other critical posts about him go down before too.
Do they understand a person can FOIA and subpeona even deleted posts.
I’m not saying it’s the site or the writers, but Boras and team very well could be downvoting and flagging
Relax…….the aliens who escaped Area 51 did it, not “Boras and team”.
“i now as journalist” ..good luck with that
Timmy is DONE! He’s never gonna be a starter again!
This story doesn’t make sense to me. I’ve been under the impression the Cubs weren’t seriously pursuing Arrieta. If so, why would they give him a chance to take the offer that Darvish ended up signing? Maybe they kicked the tires on Arrieta and were told by Borras they weren’t close to what Arrieta would take, and when Arrieta still wasn’t signed when they were on the verge of getting a Darvish deal done, they gave Arrieta one last chance to sign on the Cubs’ terms. I agree, he will regret this. Now that this is out, how can he take a lesser offer and save face. Maybe the Cubs leaked this as a way to push Arrieta from taking a lesser deal from the Brewers or Cardinals.
I can. It’s business. The Cubs have never shut out JA. He didn’t want to talk extension. He wasn’t taking a discount.
Because he was a Cub Theo gave him one last shot. You never know if someone would top the Cubs offer with YU. LA went 6 years too. If not for Kemp he be a Dodger today. Greed will kill JA in the long run. I see a one year deal 25-26 million in his future and try again next winter. Heard it here first.
Teams would be foolish to waste $25M on a starter that’s closer to a #3 than a #1.
I’m glad to not see the Angels linked to him, y’know like as an Angels fan
Where’s your leverage, Boras?
Jake Arrieta (Last 3 years)
229 IP –> 197.1 –> 168.1
1.77 ERA –> 3.10 –> 3.53
2.35 FIP –> 3.52 –> 4.16
0.39 HR/9 –> 0.73 –> 1.23
7.3 WAR –> 3.8 –> 2.4
0.86 WHIP –>1.08 –> 1.22
.184 AVG –> .194 –> .234
https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4153&position=P
You were nice to not mention his ugly numbers with the orioles. He used to be so mediocre.
Yup. I highly suspect he was on some sort of juice. With sporadic (bi-polar) numbers like that, he has to be.
or maybe the Orioles suck at developing pitching?
I heard that the Orioles told Arrieta to stop throwing across his body. When Arrieta came to the Cubs Bosio told him to throw how he feels comfortable so he went back to his old ways. It didn’t take him long to go off.
Though Arrieta keeps himself in great shape, that motion could come back to haunt him. But maybe not as much as taking the “hometown discount” which might end up being a greater deal than what he eventually gets.
“Where’s your leverage, Boras?”
Doesn’t appear you are using the concept of “leverage” correctly here, xabial. Boras leverage with Arrieta is the fact that Arrieta is the only remaining potential ace who can be signed.
Not suggesting that your analysis of Arrieta’s decline is in any way defective. Most involved in the discussion here are inclined to “short” his future performance. But that doesn’t change the fact that, even with the obvious caveats, he is the best pitcher remaining. We will shortly see what sort of leverage that translates into.
Contract negotiations are all about leverage —Boras’ leverage — as you correctly pointed out — is Arrieta’s current status as top FA SP.
I think Other GM’s will see through the mirage of “top FA available” bring up his WHIP, HR, ERA, FIP, IP, AVG among other stats — decreasing sharply — and to borrow words from Tony Clark: “Race to the bottom”
Pherhaps the most frightening indicator:
Jake Arrieta
Average Velocity, Last 3 years
(Regular and Post season)
Sinker ——> 95.21 MPH -—> 94.44 —-> 92.49
Slider ——> 90.66 MPH -—> 89.65 —> 88.33
Curve ——> 81.22 MPH ——> 81.12 —-> 79.25
Fourseam-> 94.93 MPH —> 94.32 —> 92.68
Change -—> 89.61 MPH —-> 89.04 —> 87.60
Each one of his pitches in his pitch repertoire, decreased 2 MPH
Arrieta turns 32 in a month.
I think GM’s have more leverage, if they use this overwhelming data of Arrieta’s decline, against him. And I don’t anticipate seeing a bidding war, for what looks like a pitcher, heading towards mediocrity.
2015 Pitch data: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/tabs.php?player=453562&p_hand=-1&ppos=-1&cn=200&compType=none&risp=0&1b=0&2b=0&3b=0&rType=perc&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1&time=month&minmax=ci&var=traj&s_type=2&gFilt=allmlb&startDate=01/01/2015&endDate=01/01/2016
2016 Pitch data: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/tabs.php?player=453562&p_hand=-1&ppos=-1&cn=200&compType=none&risp=0&1b=0&2b=0&3b=0&rType=perc&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1&time=month&minmax=ci&var=traj&s_type=2&gFilt=allmlb&startDate=01/01/2016&endDate=01/01/2017
2017 Pitch data: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/tabs.php?player=453562&p_hand=-1&ppos=-1&cn=200&compType=none&risp=0&1b=0&2b=0&3b=0&rType=perc&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1&time=month&minmax=ci&var=traj&s_type=2&gFilt=allmlb&startDate=01/01/2017&endDate=01/01/2018
He either has a standing 4/100 offer or he screwed up big time!
This isn’t the first time Arrieta has turned down a long term deal with the cubs. Signing Boris could really prove to be a bad decision
I think a lot of people here are forgetting that at the time Yu was projected to get a higher contract ~150mil. It makes sense for him to wait for Yu to sign bc teams theoretically will start scrambling for starters here in the next few days and being a commodity is good for jacking up prices. Unfortunately for him Yu took a pay cut. I think the cubs dodged a bullet anyways.
I agree with that. However you have to also think of the teams that are needing starters. brewers and twins for example won’t pay 125-150M for arrieta.
That was before the WS and getting bombed. That had some effect on him and the market. I expected Yu to get a higher $$ contract than Jake simply based on performance. Jake is diving hard. Makes no sense for a rebuilding ATL or PHI to sign Jake at this point and saddle themselves with a dead contract when they are ready to contend.
Darvish and arrieta are the same age but arrieta just seems 2-3 years older because of his decline the past 2 years
he should have someone check his birth certificate
3.5 era and 160 strikeouts is still pretty damn good. I wouldn’t call that diving hard but to each his own
For all those slamming Boras in this – keep in mind, Arrieta is a grown man capable of making grown man decisions. Ultimately, it’s up to him what he accepts and what he rejects – not Boras.
If he turned that deal down, he made the decision, no one else. For all we know, Boras could have told him to take it. Lord knows Arrieta doesn’t come across as the most humble guy in the world.
Although, that doesn’t fit the anti-Boras narrative. I don’t like the guy, but he’s shut a lot of you up over the years.
The biggest time I think Boras shut up the baseball world, was Prince Fielder’s nine-year $214MM contract. He held Prince out late out into the season, and no one really “needed” Prince, especially at that “Price”
But there are no Tigers this year (rebuild) and that contract was signed late January.
None of that happened. And any doubt that Heyman is a Boras mouthpiece (OK, there was none prior to this, too) is gone.
If he got that offer, he’d accept faster than his 4 seamer. Much faster.
The Cubs knew not to touch this guy with a ten foot pole and Boras desperately has to try to change/obfuscate that narrative.
Your the expert. How do you know what happened? If JA is holding out for 7 years and some team will pay him 160 million – 175 their crazy, n stupid.
It’s pretty basic. Who gave the info to Heyman and why?
I’m sorry, but if Arrieta declined a 6-year offer from the Cubs, he deserves to get a pillow contract. The Players Association should stop crying that nobody’s getting paid, and start telling these self-centered upper tier guys to swallow their pride and take the $100+ million.
Jake is no longer upper tier…
If someone wants to pay him more that 6 years and 21 million go for it. Lol
I told you guys if you think Darvish is over paid at 21 million 6 years wait till a team pays JA. Lol
there is more to this story.
Boras will use this to get at least that much from bidding teams.
Maybe Theo ia trying to pull an old Boston fast one and drive up some team like Milwaukee to make an offer and handcuff them. Personally if I’m Milwaukee I’d pass for a shortet deal for Lynn or Cobb if they want a starter.
Bidding teams? Teams are not bidding 6 year deals on Arrieta
I’m confused as to what his reasoning behind turning this offer down was. I highly doubt he receives a 5 year offer from another team, never mind 6 years.
His reasoning was pure greed
Cubs also had offered Arrieta 4/110 in January which was the same offer made during the 2016 season when it was made as an extension offer.
I never once said Lincecum was good at this point. Only that I’d rather see my team give an aging bullpen piece a minor league deal that a number 4 starter some ace money.
But if Scott boras is paying you to blindly dismiss posts, I’ll take double your wages to promote his crap and will do it better. Hit me up Scott. No fan really thinks arrieta is any good except your bots.
man youre special. you think Boras cares what we think? lol dood youre crazy
Just checking in here because I made several edits to our post. I felt that we overstepped Heyman’s reporting in the initial version of our post, my apologies for that. Please check out Heyman’s article to see his exact phrasing – he does not say that the Cubs actually made Arrieta that offer.
https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-where-does-jake-arrieta-go-now/
So anyone relying on your misreporting the past hour now looks like an idiot.
How can you not know the difference between calling to see if he would take it from calling to see if Jake would consider this only if Darvish said no?
I smell b.s. It is commonly known that Heyman is nothing but a tool for Scott Boras. Sounds like Boras has been working the phones the past hour to cover this up and save face and Heyman is of course happy to execute his the orders from Boras and now you are in on the coverup?
Mea culpa appreciated, but cut yourself a little slack. Heyman’s piece was a non-committal head-fake. It was meant to imply several things: a) that stories written about the Cubs lack of interest in Arrieta (because they “knew” something) were untrue, and b) imply that Arrieta would not accept a Yu-type offer as being insufficient but certainly that was a floor, and c) Theo’s “respectful” approach was aspirational–he felt Arrieta was better than Yu, but this was his budget, and if, by some happy chance Arrieta could be persuaded to return….
Heyman has deep sources and talent. But this was one of those times where virtually everything he said was inference.
Nice analysis Mike
Thanks.
Appreciate you posting this clarification as it does provide some context. I’d suggest, however, that the place to post it is as an addendum to the piece itself, where more people are likely to see it. I just tripped across this by accident after participating in this thread for hours.
I guess these things happen in the fast pace reporting world.
Like many people on this site I use numerous apps (even though many just pull stories from other apps).
But mlbtr is still my go to reporting site and I notice many other apps just pull stories or refer to mlbtr reports so overall great job guys at mlbtr
Tim to the rescue!!!!!!! Awesome Editing! I was reading the first published article(Not criticizing), but it had a couple of conflicting statements. This final copy is what the readers needed to see, and thank you for all of your hard work, Not only Tim, but all of the expert writers here ate MLBTR!
Arrieta can still be a quality pitcher but he has his couple of years where he was dominant like a true ace and it went away fast so I do r blame any team for not entering his asking price. He may have fix settle for s prove it deal unless I’m wrong and he gets lucky. I do think the Cubs actually improved getting Darvish instead. As a Dodgers fan I actually would still like to get Arrieta but not close to what he’s asking.
No body said he was bad. But to want a 5 year 150 million dollar deal is crazy.
That 30 a year. To risk 6 at 160-175 is crazier. Think of Zack G. That guy going to get 34.5 million at age 35 then 36 then 37 then 38.
Would you sign a pitcher at 35 for 34.5 million. How about at 36? Just think at 36 ZG will get over 103 for 3 years.
Crazy lol. I doubt CK gets 35 million at 37 or 38
Hopefully, Management will remain vigilant in their efforts to thwart Boras this offseason.
Has anyone ever fired Boras?
I believe A-Rod did and yes others have
The only example I know of a player, in his prime, dropping Boras is Edwin Jackson.
Jackson was coming off a 1 year $11M deal with the Nationals (Boras) He rejected a 3 year contract from Pirates (~$30M)
New agent got him 4 year $52M with Cubs w/ $8M signing bonus. (Legacy)
Cubs ended up releasing him, with more than a year left in the deal. ($15.63MM)
His current Agent is ESQ Agency, got him a minor league deal with Nationals, salary of $1.5M in majors, $1.4M in incentives for 2018.
Jackson is somehow, still 34.
Cano left for Jay-Z. Boras filed a grievance for $1.3M against Carlos Beltran when he left because Beltran refused to pay Boras 5% of his new FA contract that Boras didn’t negotiate (yes, Boras and others actually had that as part of their contracts….if you leave me and someone else gets you a $100M contract you pay me 5%).. He had the same type of grievance against Jackson too but it was dropped when Beltran won.
What? 34 wow
I have heard of lesser names that rehired him years later so they must have fired him. He has so many clients some may fire him just thinking they are not getting enough attention.
As a major agent for the long term you will always lose someone along the way. Many agents face the same.
But when it comes to big names it would be interesting to see how things work out this free agent season and if that has any ramifications
Personally I think if he did turn down the Cubs offer than he just let his ego get to his head. Remember they were thinking 7 years 200 plus at one time. Then it was in 190-180 range then 175.
I’m betting Bor head and JA are thinking bottom bottom line 6 years 140 That’s bottom of the pool. Probably more 6-150-160 range. If I do say if he went 5 years they are at 5-150 min which would be 30 mil a year if he did a 5 year deal. He wants 7 with 6 min bottom line. Anyone who pays that is crazy.
Remember all the teams in on Darvish offered 5 years except LA n the Cubs.
You think teams will pay another year n 24-26 million more per year. JA worked himself out the market. 1 year 25 million n try again next year. That be worse for him if you ask me.
He should have taken that money and ran. Oh well maybe he can sue Scott B for it. Lol
I could see Arrieta going for a front loaded 6 year deal with options after years 2 or 3.
Something like 27/27/27/20/18/18. Works out to 6/137. Gives him security of a long term deal, but maybe another chance at a bigger 4-5 year deal to end his career. Low 22.8 aav for tax purposes too.
But will some team think that is a good deal. That is more then Davish was signed for. Why would a team offer more?
I can see a team offering a higher AAV on short deal. The Cubs offered 4/110 twice I believe. Once as an extension in 2016 and allegedly in January 2018
I can see Arrieta holding out to get more than Darvish. A team like the Nats (small window) would love a deal like that. You almost guarantee that he opts out, and you essentially signed the ace of the market on a two year deal…
He won’t get that now that Darvish settles for less. I can see him getting a 3-4 yr at 24-25mil though. If he wants 6 years it’ll likely be closer to 18-20 mil per year now
I’d go 4/110 for him. That’s actually a pretty fair offer. I feel badly for the late bloomer types like him. There only shot at a big payday comes when everyone knows there’s a giant decline at the end of that deal
So dust44 are you giving him 4/110 because you feel sorry for him? Lol. Nice guy. Just kidding
I’d be very surprised if Jake Arrieta matches the Yu Darvish contract in years, total dollars or AAV. If he and his agent Scott Boras don’t budge on their lofty demands the former Cub ace could remain unemployed well into spring training if not the regular season. I don’t see enough competition for his services from the “glamour” franchises to support his asking price. The traditional big spenders are either set with their rotations or would be subject to severe penalties with the new luxury tax rules adopted with the last CBA.
I also don’t see the Brewers or Twins upping the ante for Arrieta. The one team that might could be the Phillies who have never been shy at paying top dollar in the past for free agents or their own players. They might jump at Arrieta figuring their window to compete in the NL East could come as early as 2019 with the Nationals likely to lose Bryce Harper to free agency following the upcoming season. Even so, the Phillies would still be behind Washington in terms of overall talent to say nothing of a comp with the Nats starting rotation that would only stand to lose Gio Gonzalez next winter.
Aaron good points!
Without the Cubs or other big market teams in on him to drive the price up where is the market for him.
You are right the Phillies have the money. Maybe that is the savior or if Boras can talk the Lerners into it.
Teams like the Brewers or Twins are not going 6 years on him or longer so you are right
As a Phillies fan I want no.part of Arrieta for more than 3 years.
JA will never take 4@110. If he would he already would have from the Cubs. He wants the years. That’s 27.5 he turned down twice. He said no chance at 6/21
Like I said his market is shrinking. LAD can’t afford him. Wash won’t go 6 years they don’t need to. With Harper n Murphy going to FA that’s a lot more important. Brewers weren’t close to Darvish they certainly aren’t going to go higher on JA. StL might take the chance but doubtful MO spends the money. StL n Philly aren’t wasting money with 2019 a year away. Rangers aren’t spending that kind of cash. Then who? Don’t forget the Cubs get a draft pick also. The market is limited for him.
With a cheaper Cobb n Lynn on the market good luck. They are no Darvish or JA but can fill the need.
1 year 25-26 million. Watch
@michaelw
Good point in mentioning the draft pick attached to Jake that is or was not attached to Darvish.
Here, let me try a bit of editing to get this story right.
“Scott Boras called Jon Heyman, wanting to get a story out there that Arrieta turned down $126 million, when really no such thing happened.” There.
Exactly what I thought, Heyman always seems to be in Boras’s pockets.
I’m sorry, but Arrieta is absolutely not worth anywhere even remotely close to what he thinks he is. If any team signs him for those numbers, they are complete idiots.
Darvish is a better pitcher (and his metrics aren’t trending downward, like Arrieta’s), and look at the money he received.
I’m glad the Cubs didn’t sign Arrieta. The guy’s attitude leaves a lot to be desired.
I agree with your points of Darvish over Arietta but there is nothing wrong with Arietta’s attitude or work ethic.
I can’t speak for him but im guessing he means the fact that arrieta was almost out of the league, the cubs turned his career around and what did he do in return? ” No home town discount”….Was also offered 4/110 a year or 2 ago, which is more aav then darvish is getting and sd no. So ty for the help with the ws, and goodbye!
You’re exactly correct. The guy has just always had a stick up his rear end.
I remember when a reporter asked him about possibly considering a “hometown discount,” and he just arrogantly dismisses it, immediately.
I can understand him wanting to get top dollar, but his response just took a dump all over the city, fans, and organization.
An organization and fan base that helped revive his career, mind you.
A professional would take all things into consideration, and then negotiate like a reasonable adult. His ways will definitely end up biting him in the rear end.
Arrieta will be very hard pressed to get nine figures. Scott Boras and Jon Heyman and MLBTR can try to pump up that market, but it’s only going to inflate so far.
Heyman really is a mouthpiece for Boras. No way this is true.
I tend to agree with this being Boras spinning it the best way. A key word in the quote is “similar”. There are incentives and an opt out in the Darvish deal along with the base money. Maybe it was not as good all told.
First thing I thought. The story has been, what do the Cubs know about Arietta to prevent them from not persueing him. So, plant a story indicating the Cubs did want him. I hope he goes to the Brewers for 6/$150.
Before agents throw their next public tantrum, they should re-read Boras’ quote. “It’s Dec 10 for me”.
But the owners, right?
Looks like Arrieta will be the last man standing this year, he isn’t getting 150+ million.
=
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The cubs can’t seem to replenish pitching through their farm system. They seem to have to overpay for pitching. Mark my words this reckless spending will come back with vengeance very soon causing that small window for the cubs to slam shut.
What is very soon? Just so you’re on the record.
They have all of their starters set for the next 3 years. The only one that’s being overpaid right now imo is Lester but his salary will decrease after next year. Also the cubs paid market value for him and they were rewarded with a WS so some would say he’s worth every penny. I don’t see how this will in any way harm the Cubs. They have a more than enough money including enough to go over the luxury tax next year to grab Harper if they choose
Plus a new TV deal coming soon… Could be worth hundreds of millions. They’ll have no problem finding the money for Harper.
I agree with the farm scenario on the pitching. However, 21 mil per is not an overpay for darvish, the 6 years i don’t like but considering he was projected by every expert just about for 6/160, i say it’s fair value for him and was the best out there. They were not paying cobb 20 mil per, or giving arrieta 150+ mil, it was a deal that had to be done, and for the money, it’s pretty fair.
Define small window
Will be interesting to see who blinks first, Bora$$ and his clients or the teams.
Look, I love this Darvish contract. $21m guaranteed and incentives making the deal worth $25m. I think this has to be the future of all contracts. And players should embrace it. Nothing wrong with baseline salaries of $5m, $10m, $15m and $20m for your star players. Then let them earn $15m in bonuses. So if you’re a $5m player like Mookie Betts was last year, now he has a chance to make $20m. And if you’re Giancarlo Stanton, making the $15m level, now he has the chance to earn $30m. Same goes for pitchers. Maybe allow a $25m baseline max and $10m in bonus levels. At the end of the day, this is the way players should be paid. Open up the bonuses for rookies, and the MLBPA might get on board.
I doubt teams would accept that huge variance in their bottom line every year They’d have no idea what any player would cost or whether they’d have to pay tax, etc..
Boras seems to gamble that teams are just going to just say ahhh what the heck it’s only 30 million over budget for the next 7 years when so many others I see can’t get rid of similar contract problems that no longer produce we should do it to
Paying starting pitchers 25m is crazy. Starters pitch 5 innings/100 innings…get hurt…play every five days. Spend on Harper/Stanton/trout/….they put fans in the stands.
What is Arrieta holding out for? Nobody’s gonna give him a deal similar to Darvish’s. 5-6 years for 120-126 million is the best he’s getting.
If Darvish signed for the projected 150mil than Jake would have gotten every bit of that. It’s not his fault that Yu took a pay cut. Jake did exactly what he should have done it just backfired this time
I’d jump on him for 1/30, but other than that, I wouldn’t give him more than 3/60. All of his stats are plummeting in the wrong direction. His control just evaporates at random times, he struggles going through the lineup that 2nd-3rd time,
I have no idea how often they were battery mates, but could the loss of David Ross/John Baker and their tutelage hurt him that much? Maybe he’s one of those guys who just needs that defensively minded veteran presence behind the dish?
David Ross never really caught Arrieta. It was Montero, until Jake blamed him for giving up too many steals (in reality, Jake was too slow to home plate). The Cubs got rid of Montero shortly after, then Contreras caught Jake most of the time. I think part of the Cubs pitching problem last year was Contreras’ game calling. But he got better as the year went on, and so did the pitching. Jake had a pretty good second half.
That sucks. Wish they would have signed him over Darvish.
No you wouldn’t trust me. I don’t want Lynn going against a Hill or Wood
Or Stras or Geo in post season.
Like Lynn but I’ll spend another 3-4 million on Darvish TY
I don’t want any dodger on my team. It’s bad enough they have Brandon morrow as well. What is done is done. There’s gonna be alot of #11 jersey sales this year.
I’d sign Lynn over Arrieta any day. I see Arrieta’s new team being very disappointed after 2 seasons. I can see Lynn being a good inning eater for 3-4 years.
I guess Boras is waiting until spring training starts to see if anyone gets injured then maybe he gets his ridiculous asking price.
It appears Boras has finally overreached and that he is going to get stuck here. He was asking ridiculous prices for cmon man 200 million for a DH, 200 million for a good not great first baseman, and 150 million for an aging pitcher with declining peripherals. Those are facts that Boras can’t deny.
It can’t be good for these players to sit out to start the season and hopefully these guys are going to start to pressure him a bit and say cmon man what is going on? Let’s get these guys signed you messed up this offseason Boras sign your guys and move on.
God I wish I had the skills to be able to say no to that kind of money for what is relatively a short amount of time. Good baseball players have it made.
Cubs should offer 55 mil over two years for Jake. Cubs solidify the rotation beyond a doubt and we have six starters locked in for this two year window. Who blinks first?
I think cub fans still love Arrieta. But if a player chooses Boras over the Cubs, the fans get over him quickly.