SUNDAY: The contract comes with a $2MM salary in the majors and up to $4MM in incentives, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets. It also features several opt-out chances. Beginning May 1, Hellickson will have an opportunity to exit the deal every 15 days.
SATURDAY: The club has made the signing official.
FRIDAY: The Nationals have agreed to a minor-league deal with righty Jeremy Hellickson, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). He’ll receive an invitation to join the MLB side of camp.
Presumably, Hellickson will have a strong shot at earning the fifth starter’s job with the Nats. The organization has been cited all winter as a possible pursuer of a rotation upgrade, though to this point it had not made a significant move. Washington had indicated it would like to see A.J. Cole, who is out of options, command a starting role. But he has not evidently not run away with things in camp, leaving the team open to adding another arm. The other top candidates for the job are prospect Erick Fedde and non-roster invitees Edwin Jackson and Tommy Milone.
Hellickson, who’ll soon turn 31, has had a quiet winter after taking a $17.2MM qualifying offer from the Phillies for the 2017 season. He struggled all year long, ending with a 5.43 ERA over 164 innings. Despite holding opponents to a .246 batting average on balls in play, Hellickson coughed up home runs at a rate of 1.9 per nine innings and saw his swinging-strike rate drop to 8.3% after sitting above ten percent in each of the prior three campaigns.
Of course, the former Rookie of the Year has had better days in prior seasons. He has never returned to the top-level output of his earliest seasons with the Rays, but Hellickson did turn in a quality 2016 effort with Philadelphia. He tallied 189 innings of 3.71 ERA ball in his 32 starts while recording 7.3 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9.
Minor?? He could have landed a MLB deal
After the way he pitched in Baltimore last year he should be happy to get a deal at all.
You clearly did not see how he pitched last season.
Clearly not since we are couple weeks away from opening day and he wasn’t signed..
Could of? Well, considering spring training is over halfway done and he just signed now, I don’t think many were calling with major league offers….
collusion
I’m surprised the Phillies didn’t go after him since he was pretty solid with them
I’d imagine he’s just an insurance policy. I can’t envision a scenario in which AJ Cole is not the Nationals’ 5th starter.
^^^Yes. I read Cole’s velocity was down this spring, and that he hasn’t been all that impressive. Plus, I’m sure the team wants to give Fedde some time in the minors as a starter, especially after they switched his role up a few times last year. Hellickson should have a decent chance of serving as the Nats fifth starter early in the year.
This isn’t collusion by any means.
Jeremy Hellickson posted a 5.43 ERA last season with a 5.77 FIP
In short:
Last year he stunk.
Might that have been a …joke?
What the heck is FIP? Is this another one of those new baseball stats? What is baseball trying to do? I don’t get it? These new stats seem very subjective.
It’s Fielding Independent Pitching and it’s a better stat to judge an actual pitcher’s performance than ERA.
Unless you’re a groundball or soft contact pitcher, which means your FIP will usually be higher than your ERA. Plenty of pitchers (e.g. Stephen Strasburg) have FIP that is consistently higher/lower than their ERA.
For his career, Strasburg has an ERA and FIP that are 0.2 runs (3.07 ERA, 2.83 FIP) different. He also has had a FIP higher than his ERA twice, while an ERA higher than his FIP four times. I wouldn’t call that consitently higher or lower. What has been cosistent is his FIP. Over the last 3 years his FIP has been between 2.72-2.92, while his ERA has fluctuated between 2.52-3.60.
great story @ ryan, but what does this actually mean in regular-person speak? why is ERA not a good indicator of a pitchers performance anymore? why does FIP provide a better picture? Im actually seriously asking here; ive tried to read up on things like BABIP and FIP and i just dont get why they are so much better than the old stats.
From what I understand, it looks at a pitcher without defense. HR, walks, hbp, and k’s are almost completely controlled by the pitcher. HR, Walks, and hbp increase FIP while k’s lower FIP. like era, lower is better. ERA can skew based on scenarios. for instance, I load the bases and get removed. The reliever gives up a 3 run double and my era goes up or the reliever gets out of the inning and my era does not change. Either way, my era is in the hands of another player while my FIP is not.
ERA is useful, but only to a point.
The reason they have generated more advanced stats like FiP and xFIP 😉 , is because a run can be earned yet not really reflect the pitcher’s ability/performance.
For example, the 2006 Phillies had Pat Burrell in LF. Burrell had very limited range (to say the least). If a line drive was hit in the gap out of the CFs range, Burrell rarely got there – so it was a hit.
OTOH, Michael Bourn was on the Phillies bench and was Burrell’s late inning defensive replacement. As a Phils fan I watch their games, and I remember Bourn turning batted balls into outs – balls that Burrell would not have come within 15-20 feet. Yet, the pitcher’s performance was the same – he threw a baseball toward home plate that was put into play – with a different result depending on who was playing defense.
With all the discussing about pitchers’ stats, just remember one thing Bill James pointed out 30 years ago in a primer in the final edition of the Baseball Abstract in 1988:
“10. A great deal of what is perceived as being pitching is in fact defense.”
In theory, FIP is judging a pitcher by the outcomes that he is the sole responsible defender for: BB, HBP, HR, & K. There is a conversion formula to make it congruous to ERA. The argument against depending solely on ERA and not accounting for FIP to judge a pitcher’s worth is that he gets the benefit or demerit of the ability his defense on all balls in play.
I think the better way to judge FIP than saying that it the THE stat that indicates a pitcher’s value (I mean, there is ERA+, xFIP, dERA, SIERA, etc.), is to think of it as one tool in the toolkit to assess performance.
We wish things to be easy, of course, because few of us want to compare 20 different stats to get the bigger picture of a player–imagine the backs of those baseball cards!–but those who get paid the big bucks to draft and sign these players consult a bevy of stats.
Hope that helps!
wow! thanks for the informative responses guys, helps me understand a bit more about the differences here. i never really thought about that common scenario for ERA in which a reliever kinda controls a starters ERA with inherited runners. joepanik said above that FIP kinda works against guys who pitch to contact/induce a lot of ground balls…is this because for these pitchers (like a hellickson who is more of a fly ball pitcher i think?) it is difficult to take defense completely out of the question because they rely on it more? concersely, is FIP more relevant for strikeout pitchers who dont rely as much on defense? im just guessing here… i tried reading some of this stuff on fangraphs a while back (dont even get me started on BABIP?)and it might as well have been written in Chinese! haha this is not my area of expertise
exactly. some pitchers depend on soft contact to the defenders, however the shift is used. they rely on specific pitches in the zone. keuchel comes to mind; lots of easy ground balls with soft flyouts. other guys that can’t hit the zone as well need a much better defense to look good.
Here’s a basic thought experiment. Let’s say you get two quick outs in an inning. The next batter grounds a ball to the shortstop, who flubs it. Error, runner at first. The next batter doubles, scoring a run. The next batter doubles, scoring a second run. the next batter homers, allowing two more runs. The next batter makes an out. The pitcher allowed four runs, none of which were earned, but he gave up three extra-base hits. That’s meaningful and important.
It’s not just the difference between Burrell and Bourn. It can be the difference between Billy Hamilton and Billy Hamilton. A batter hits the ball in the gap and Hamilton makes a great sliding catch. But if the batter hit the ball 5 inches more toward left field Hamilton doesn’t make the catch. Or if Hamilton were positioned one step more toward right field he doesn’t make it either.
The pitcher gave up the same sort of fly ball but one was caught and one was a double.
ERA is a good indicator of a pitcher’s performance, although ERA+ puts it in context of where he plays. FIP tells you whether the pitcher actually pitched better than his ERA indicates. A pitcher with a 3.20 FIP and a 3.80 ERA should be better the following season. If his FIP were 4.40 you’d expect he’d be better.
Yeah, Hellickson had maybe 5 good games all season. 5 Inn pitcher with no K’s and he at least showed up. Ubaldo is still at home waiting for someone to love him.
I don’t understand Ubaldo. He had one good half season and has consistently been given a job over better guys. until this year.
I think it was also those few years pitching in CO where he threw over 200 innings with nice stats for few straight years including third in cy young in 2010. He had a few rough years after but still made his starts and then after a few adjustments had that nice second half with Cleveland. I think Baltimore thought they might get a steal based on his few down years instead of it turning out that the half year rebound was the fluke. Ubaldo is a smart pitcher and very hard working, I could see how Baltimore thought it was worth the risk.
Jimenez’ problem has been a lack of consistency since the latter stage of his time in COL. The Rockies saw this and felt it was better to deal him too early than too late. CLE did not attempt to retain him when he hit free agency, and BAL couldn’t wait for his contract to expire. Always a decent SP with good stuff, consistency has eluded Ubaldo for most of his career for whatever reason.
At leat he took the QO last year and made some cash.
The Phillies reportedly tried to extend him and he and Boras declined.
Boras has screwed up a few players careers by turning down deals that would have secured players for life. He over estimated once again and the player pays for it. Every year someone turns down a QO when it’s obvious they should take it. Happened again this year a player lost 11 million.
People always want to blame Boras, but it’s not like he doesn’t inform the player of the risks/rewards. It’s the greed of the players themselves… heck, it says a lot just hiring boras in the first place.
BAINES03, we agree. The player who hires Boras – and, mind you, I hate generalizations – are usually the type of player who wants to max out the money. That’s why they hire Boras in the first place.
There’s nothing wrong with that.
The PLAYER not the AGENT turns down the deals!!
But the player listens to his agents advice!
Yes, this is the point that many ignore. Many MLB players have only HS educations. There is nothing wrong with that. However, their lack of education may make them more susceptible to the influence of their agents.
Unless you are a fly on the wall you don’t know, but agents have their own interests too.
What would be the motivation for the agent to get his clent less money? Does Boras or any other agent have a secret agenda to go against their client’s wishes and anger them?
Boras must be doing an even better job than just getting good, not great players like Hosmer $144 million contracts. He does such a good job of taking the heat away from his clients that most here bash him, rather than the player, with regards to any and all contract matters.
Boras doesn’t accept or decline anything. It’s the player. He just negotiates the terms and tries to squeeze out as much as he can for his client.
I am pretty sure the $33.5million he has already earned in his career was enough to set him for life.
Who has Boras screwed? Stephen Drew? Anyone else? Arrieta got his money, Hosmer got way more than his value in money, JDM got his money. Kendrys Morales has got a lot of money after his one fiasco of an offseason. The only other player he didn’t help was moustakos, and his market was ridiculously hard to read.
Should have signed with Detroit or San Diego. Would make their rotation
You do know players just can’t pick a team to play for, right? The team actually has to make an offer.
only an orioles fan would want the phillies to resign him. He was bad and we could not wait to send him out of town. We have 6-10 young guys that i would rather see take a SP spot than hellickson.
I would of rather seen him return to Baltimore then the O’s to throw out Mike Wright Jr., or a reliever in Castro, or a rule 5 guy in Cortes for the fifth spot. Not for 17.4 million obviously but in a cheap deal, he seems worth the risk.
WHAT THE ICKSON????
Lol… good job
Could be a nice bounce back sleeper. He was trash last season but was also dealing with some personal issues IIRC.
Hellickson is pitch to contact garbage. Like every other pitcher, he’s better than Milone and Jackson though.
Agreed. Like most everyone else I understand that Edwin Jackson has a plus attitude, great Clubhouse guy, solid citizen, and it’s impossible not to like him as a person. To hand him the ball every 5th day is just not wise from a wins & losses standpoint. I’d rather see WAS take their chances with Hellickson.
The Nats are in win now mode, they need proven pitchers. Hellickson fits the bill.
hellickson + win now
dont seem like they go together
surprised at the nats lack of activity this offseason, considering there were difinitely catcher and 5th starter upgrades to be had–on the cheap–and they held back. Lucroy surely would have preferred WAS over OAK and Lynn/Cobb would have held down a nice back end rotation spot for cheap. well, cobb is still an option i guess. he has to go to either MIL or WAS
This is a good depth move.
How do the Nationals have so much money to throw around
Because they spent like $12 between 2005 and 2010
The owners draft and sign these players who could spend anywhere from 2-6 years in the minors before making the majors. They have six years service time before they become a free agent, seven years if the owners game the service time just right (see Kris Bryant). The owners artificially control salaries for three years after which the player has arbitration, which though better, is still artificial value. Finally, the players become free agents after 8-10 years and walk into a market where some owners are tanking and other owners are suspiciously not even making offers to these players to see if they can get an unreasonably low price that the player has no choice but to accept.
Oh, but it’s the players that are greedy, right?
“Not evidently not run away ….”. Um. Ok
To his credit Hellickson has been arguably successful and effective in both TB and PHI, and was all but ineffective in BAL in the 2nd half of last year. He’s a viable rebound candidate whereas Edwin Jackson is what he’s been for the past 8 years or so. I hope he’s another Rich Hill/Drew Pomeranz/Doug Fister success story for both him and the Nats.