The Braves announced that they’ve placed right-hander Julio Teheran on the 10-day disabled list due to a right thumb contusion and selected the contract of righty Luke Jackson to take his spot on the 25-man roster. Atlanta had an open spot on the 40-man, so the team didn’t need to make a corresponding move in that regard.
Teheran, still just 27 years of age, is sporting a respectable 4.31 ERA on the season, though there’s plenty of reason to believe that he’s been fairly fortunate to maintain that mark. The right-hander’s average fastball velocity is down to a career-worst 89.3 mph, and he’s averaging a career-high 4.18 walks and 1.77 homers per nine innings pitched. Beyond that, Teheran’s chase rate and swinging-strike rate are down from his career levels, and he’s benefiting from a .225 BABIP and an 80.4 percent strand rate. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg Teheran around 5.00 or higher.
[Related: Updated Atlanta Braves depth chart]
It’s not clear how long Teheran will miss, though there’s no indication that he’s expected to be out for a prolonged period. With off-days on June 7 and 11, the Braves can skip the fifth spot in their rotation and stick with current starters Sean Newcomb, Mike Foltynewicz, Brandon McCarthy and Anibal Sanchez. If they have to dip into their Triple-A ranks, Matt Wisler has already made three spot starts this season and could be the first line of defense to do so again. Max Fried and Lucas Sims are also starting in Triple-A and are on the 40-man roster, though they’ve been used primarily out of the ’pen in the Majors so far in 2018.
As for Jackson, this’ll be the third time he’s been selected to the team’s 40-man roster this season. Atlanta has already outrighted Jackson on two occasions, but he’s stuck with the organization and will now embark on his third stint with the Major League team in 2018. The 26-year-old has surrendered two runs in 1 1/3 innings at the MLB level so far and posted a 4.62 ERA in 50 2/3 innings for the Braves last year. In 21 1/3 Triple-A frames so far in 2018, he’s pitched to a pristine 1.69 ERA with 34 strikeouts against 10 walks.
I imagine that the way Braves fans feel about Luke Jackson is the way Indians fans like me feel about Michael Martinez…you think you’ve gotten rid of them but they keep slithering back
confirmed
He’s still better than Socolavich. I wish we could get rid of both though
I’ll go out on a limb and say Jackson seems like a guy who could have a big late break out. Traditionally excelled in AAA and has decent stuff
It is certainly possible. To be honest I’m always amazed by how many “fans” seem so eager for relatively inexperienced players to be dismissed from their organization. Yes, it is frustrating when they’ve failed frequently in their attempts to learn at the major league level, but often these guys have high upside if they can just pull it together. Jackson definitely seems to fall into that category for me.
Or Beliveau if he gets called up again.
I wonder when the Braves will realize this Wisler/Sims/Jackson garbage is not working? Probably when they are out of first place by a wide margin.
As for Teheran, there will always be the bafoons who think he is good. Great, maybe they can get rid of him soon via trade.
I was hoping they would leave Teheran in LA.
It’s time to bump Julio to the bullpen or trade him.
Trade him to boston for bennitendi and devers
Not Devers – he’s in a massive slump. Betts is injured, so definitely not him. I’d go with Benintendi and Chris Sale – expecting them to start the rebuild by July.
LOL
An earlier thread commenter compared Teheran to Jair Jurrjens, and that may be right. He needs pinpoint control to be effective, and he hasn’t had that consistently since they moved out of Turner Field. In the new ballpark, fly balls are HRs. He could be serviceable at a stadium that’s not so homer-happy, but the Braves couldn’t get much for him until he gets healthy and shows he can adjust to the conditions at SunTrust.
Also, Gohara is on the ML roster. Could be a 5th starter if needed.
That’s who’d I’d go with.
Ugh. Jackson needs to stay in the minors until he puts a full season of good work together. Someone get that kid on a treadmill this offseason and lifting some weights. He looks brutal
Maybe his BABIP is low because he’s generating soft contact? Metrics never account for that…..
it’s kinda like newcomb. He walks a lot of guys, but when they actually do make contact it’s very rarely solid contact
Newcomb is a much better example of quality of contact than Teheran. His soft-contact rate is nearly 6 percentage points better than the league average, while his hard-hit rate is about 7 percent south.
His soft-contact rate (23.9%) dwarfs Teheran (19%), and his hard-hit rate (27.8%) is wildly better (39%).
Newcomb also misses way more bats and induces way more grounders. I don’t know if he can sustain a .260 BABIP, but he certainly looks capable of maintaining a BABIP below the league average.
I never understood BABIP as a metric that determines the abilities of a pitcher or hitter. With all the defensive shifting in the game, it should not be a surprise that a pitcher has a low BABIP against. a high BABIP on a hitter should tell you that he’s making good contact and perhaps going the opposite way more than normal, it doesn’t automatically means that he’s been lucky.
Teheran’s 19% soft-contact rate is scarcely better than the league average of 18.2%. His 39% hard-contact rate is well north of the league average of 35.2%., and his 94.6 mph average exit velocity on balls in the air is 24th out of 168 pitchers (min. 100 batted ball events).
I suppose I could’ve further added all of that context to the post, but at a certain point I felt like I’d just be piling on unnecessarily.
Generally speaking, if I’m going to cite a player’s BABIP on MLBTR (whether saying he’s been lucky or unlucky), I’ll look at quite a bit of batted-ball data first. If there’s ample reason to believe it possible to sustain an abnormally high or low mark, I’ll note it.
I don’t think that’s the case with Teheran, whose BABIP is 50 points below his career mark despite the fact that his hard-contact rate is eight percent higher than his career level.
I like the thought of Gohara in the rotation. Honestly, get him stretched out and when Julio is back it could be time to move McCarthy or Sanchez out of the rotation. I’m really surprised nobody has brought up Allard yet.
Teheran sucks. 87 mph fastball. No command of any of his pitches. He will not be in the 2019 lineup. Write it down.
Can I just print this out?
I meant rotation not lineup. My bad.
And just a short time ago the “Is Teheran an Ace?” debate was raging on MLBTR and other sites. Sustained success for MLB pitchers is elusive, n’est-ce pas?
Sustained success at any top level is difficult to maintain. It seems to me though the actual discussion at the time was never that Teheran was a true ace, but it was more along the lines of could he take the next step and be a true 2, was he a 2/3 or was he a 3/4. Now it appears he has stepped backwards from WHATEVER he was into a #5 type starter.
Teheran has always outperformed his advanced stats. Also, he just cannot avoid the inevitable bad start this year. It seems like he will start to string together a run of good starts and then bam…3IP 6 RUNS…Sanchez has actually helped Teheran quite a bit this year, helping him flutter his speeds, and working on his secondary offerrings..
Teheran has been hitting 91-92 on the radar gun when he’s wanted to rare back, but he can no longer reach back and get that 94 mph fastball to put guys away…That’s hurting him..
Hopefully, he can get healthy, continue to tinker with somethings, and help the Braves as their #4 guy down the stretch..
Speed is part of the problem, but it’s most terrible location. He leaves so many balls up and over the plate amounting to massive HR totals. You don’t have to throw 94 to be successful, as long as you have a good mix of pitches and can locate most of the time.
his location is bad because he’s overthrowing. all his problems reside with his speed. when he throws 90-91 consistently and easy, he’s a legit top of the rotation starter. but lately most of the time he’s putting max effort just to throw 88-89. I believe that something is physically wrong with him, tired arm, or this thumb thing. it’s possible that he just lost his ability to reach that speed. when he first came out he was throwing 92-93 and could reach 95. so he’s been regressing for a while, maybe it’s just gone.
I do believe there is something physically wrong with him. He has like 5 straight years of 200+ innings with a consistent velo drop and accuracy issues. I bet he suffered an injury some time back and never told anyone and has continued to pitch through it.
I would seriously consider him getting an MRI on his elbow and see if there is something wrong there.
Kind of a bummer. I’d like to see what their team can do at full strength. I hope he comes around. As an outsider I think Gohara should slot in at 5
Julio has a ” respectful ” 4.31 ERA, there once was a time he would be ostracized to a bullpen. But hey I’m old and the 60’s & 70″s were long ago