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Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

Giants Notes: Correa, Wade, Belt, Jackson

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Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with the media yesterday and addressed a wide array of topics. In addition to downplaying the club’s need for catching help, he touched on a few of the team’s free agent decisions.

Nothing has loomed larger for the organization over the past few weeks than the deal with Carlos Correa that fell through. Correa’s camp quickly pivoted to the Mets after the Giants expressed concerns about the star shortstop’s physical and backed out of their $350MM agreement. Of course, New York’s doctors expressed similar concerns and Correa’s $315MM deal with the Mets also fell apart.

Zaidi indicated that San Francisco briefly touched base with Correa’s camp after his physical with the Mets was flagged (link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). The Giants’ baseball ops leader indicated Correa wasn’t much interested in reopening discussions with San Francisco at the time, saying that Correa’s group “had other things they were more focused on.” Zaidi had expressed something similar a couple weeks back, indicating the team was unlikely to get deeply involved again with the Boras Corporation then focused on hammering out a deal with the Mets. That never came to fruition and Correa eventually returned to the Twins on a six-year, $200MM guarantee.

While the Giants’ offseason is in large part defined by near-misses on Aaron Judge and Correa, San Francisco certainly wasn’t inactive. They came up short on the star player they’d been seeking but brought in a number of quality regulars and role players. That was especially true in the outfield, where Joc Pederson returned via the qualifying offer and Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto signed multi-year free agent deals.

That solidified the outfield, with Haniger and Conforto expected to flank Mike Yastrzemski or Austin Slater on most days. Pederson will be the primary designated hitter if everyone’s healthy. LaMonte Wade Jr. has gotten a decent amount of corner outfield run over the past couple seasons but now looks set to man first base, at least as the strong side of a platoon arrangement.

Wade, a left-handed hitter, owns a .235/.318/.434 line over 632 plate appearances since the Giants acquired him from the Twins over the 2020-21 offseason. He’s been dreadful in 75 looks against left-handed pitching (.119/.178/.149) but has a quality .251/.336/.473 line with 26 home runs and 22 doubles in 557 trips while holding the platoon advantage. That makes him a logical partner for right-handed hitters like Wilmer Flores, J.D. Davis and David Villar, each of whom could rotate through the corner infield.

A desire to lean on Wade at first base played into San Francisco’s decision to watch Brandon Belt join the Blue Jays in free agency, Zaidi indicted (Pavlovic link). Zaidi suggested the team stayed in touch with Belt but didn’t specify whether the club made an official offer. After parts of 12 seasons in San Francisco, the veteran first baseman joined the Jays on a $9.3MM deal earlier this week.

One free agent whom San Francisco did sign is reliever Luke Jackson. The longtime Braves righty didn’t pitch in 2022 thanks to an April Tommy John surgery. It marked a rough platform year but San Francisco still added him on a two-year, $11.5MM guarantee. With the typical Tommy John rehab taking roughly 14 months, Jackson isn’t expected to be ready for the start of next season. Zaidi acknowledged he might open the year on the 60-day injured list, which would keep him out of action until at least late May (link via Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News). That’s not suggestive of any kind of setback, as Zaidi said Jackson is “doing great in his rehab.”

Giants Sign Luke Jackson To Two-Year Deal

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The Giants announced Monday that they’ve signed free-agent righty Luke Jackson to a two-year contract that includes a club option for a third season. He’ll be guaranteed $11.5MM that’s paid out in the form of a $3MM salary in 2023, a $6.5MM salary in 2024 and then a $2MM buyout on a $7MM option for the third year. Jackson, a client of Beverly Hills Sports Council, didn’t pitch in 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in April. The Giants didn’t provide a timeline, but given the date of his surgery, it’s likely Jackson will open the season on the injured list.

The 31-year-old Jackson had something of a roller-coaster tenure in the Atlanta bullpen, at times operating as the team’s closer and on other occasions being relegated to low-leverage roles while struggling through rocky results. He saved his best performance for last, however, dominating as the team’s primary setup man during their run to the World Series in 2021.

Jackson, who shook off a disastrous 6.84 ERA in the shortened 2020 season, pitched to an outstanding 1.98 ERA with a 26.8% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate for the Braves during the ’21 regular season. He was virtually unhittable in the season’s final couple months, recording a 1.35 ERA and 33-to-10 K/BB ratio with just one homer allowed over his final 26 2/3 frames that year.

For much of the postseason, the same was true. Jackson was unscored upon through his first six games in the playoffs — four NLDS games and two in the NLCS — before the Dodgers ambushed him for four runs in just one-third of an inning. The Braves lost that game (with Jackson taking the loss) but hung on to win the series. The World Series offered a chance at redemption for Jackson, and he seized it, firing 3 2/3 shutout innings with just one hit, no walks and four punchouts.

Looking at Jackson’s career from a broader perspective, the former No. 45 overall pick (Rangers, 2010) was a touted pitching prospect with Texas before being sent to the Braves in exchange for right-handers Tyrell Jenkins and Brady Feigl. Neither of those pitchers did anything for Texas, and while Jackson’s first season with the Braves in 2017 was rather nondescript, he began to turn a corner the following season.

It was 2018 when Jackson entirely shelved his changeup, scaled back the usage of his four-seamer and curveball, and began to throw his slider more than any other offering. Since that point, Jackson has seen his strikeout rate leap from an awful 13.4% to a very strong 27.1%. He’s averaged 95.5 mph on his heater along the way and also gone from a fly-ball pitcher to a robust ground-ball worker, keeping a whopping 55.8% of balls put into play against him on the ground. Command has been a frequent issue, evidenced by a 10% walk rate in his past 203 1/3 innings (2018-21), but Jackson’s ability to miss bats, induce double-plays and avoid home runs (0.93 HR/9) have helped him to offset that below-average ability to locate the ball.

Though he’s likely IL-bound to start the year, Jackson could still jump back into the big league bullpen before the season’s halfway point. Once he does, he’ll add some more swing-and-miss to what has become an increasingly sound relief corps in San Francisco. Lefty Taylor Rogers was signed for late-inning work alongside presumptive closer Camilo Doval, and the Giants will also have John Brebbia and Tyler Rogers (Taylor’s twin brother) in the mix for late-inning opportunities. The pitching staff has as many as seven capable starters — Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea, Anthony DeSclafani, Jakob Junis — and the potential for two of them (Junis and perhaps DeSclafani) to pitch in relief only further deepens the bullpen.

Jackson’s modest $3MM salary in 2023 will push the payroll to a projected $192.2MM, per Roster Resource, while the Giants are now up to more than $213MM in luxury-tax obligations. That leaves plenty of room for some additional signings, whether to further deepen the relief corps or to add another bat to the lineup.

Injury Notes: Wainwright, Jackson, Zuber

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Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright had a 3.09 ERA through the end of August this year but then posted a 7.22 mark over the final few weeks of the season. Given that he turned 41 years old in between those two samples, some might have wondered if the veteran had merely run out of gas.

However, that wasn’t actually the case, at least according to the man himself. Wainwright logged into Twitter yesterday, acknowledging that he didn’t perform up to his own standards down the stretch and attempting to offer an explanation. The way he tells it, he was hit on the knee by a comebacker in his August 28 start against Atlanta. This affected the length of his stride, which he didn’t notice for some time, leading to domino effects in his delivery. He believes that the issues were eventually fixed but that the season ended before he got a chance to get back into proper form.

Despite the poor finish, Wainwright still posted a 3.71 ERA in 2022, making 32 starts and throwing 191 2/3 innings. Given that his Cardinal teammates Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols already announced their intention to retire after this year, many have wondered if Wainwright would join them in heading into the sunset. But he’s shown he can still be effective at the big league level and could surely get another shot in 2023 if he wants one. If he has made a decision in that regard, he hasn’t yet gone public with it.

Wainwright made his MLB debut with the Cards in 2005 and has been with them his entire big league career. In 2013, he and the club signed a five-year extension that went through the 2018 campaign. Since then, he and the team have effectively gone year to year, signing one-year deals for the past four seasons. He made $17.5MM this year on the heels of an excellent 2021 campaign that he didn’t quite match. He might have to settle for a slight pay cut to return next year, though he and the club have always been able to work out deals that work for both sides.

Jose Quintana is also heading for free agency, leaving the Cards with an on-paper rotation of Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, Jordan Montgomery and Dakota Hudson. Matz and Flaherty both had injury-plagued seasons and Hudson struggled enough that he got optioned to the minors down the stretch. Given those question marks, reuniting for another spin with Wainwright would make sense for the team, as long as that’s something he wants.

Other injury notes from around the league…

  • Braves right-hander Luke Jackson has missed this entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. He seems to be on track for a return at some point next year, as the hurler himself took to Twitter to announce that he has started throwing. Now 31, Jackson had a tremendous breakout season in 2021. He threw 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, much better than his 4.24 career mark. There might have been a bit of good luck in there, as opponents hit just .253 on balls in play against Jackson after posting marks at .311 or above in each of the previous five seasons. Nonetheless, he did post strong ground ball and strikeout rates of 52.5% and 26.8%, respectively, alongside a high walk rate of 11.1%. This was his final year of club control, meaning he’ll be heading into the open market in a few weeks. Given his ongoing recovery, he will likely have to hold a showcase for teams at some point in order to showcase his readiness for 2023.
  • Royals righty Tyler Zuber missed the entirety of the 2022 season, landing on the IL in March due to a shoulder impingement and never returning. He appears to be healthy again after tweeting video of himself throwing yesterday. The 27-year-old has yet to find success at the big league level, pitching to a 5.29 ERA in 49 1/3 career innings, though he’s shown more potential in the minors. In 28 2/3 frames at Triple-A in 2021, he posted a 2.83 ERA along with a 37.1% strikeout rate and 40.4% ground ball rate. That also came with a concerning 13.8% walk rate, though he showed an ability to be effective despite that. By sitting on the 60-day IL all season, he’s earned a full year of MLB service time in 2022, though he still won’t reach arbitration eligibility this winter.

Braves Win Arbitration Hearing Against Luke Jackson

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The Braves have won their arbitration hearing against right-hander Luke Jackson, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). He’ll be paid at the $3.6MM rate submitted by the team, as opposed to the $4MM rate filed by Jackson and his representatives.

Jackson won’t pitch this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last month, although that factor shouldn’t have impacted his hearing outcome. Arbitration panels evaluate the cases of the team and player based on prior seasons’ performance. Hearings are typically conducted in early to mid-February, if necessary, but the 99-day lockout this offseason got in the way of arbitration proceedings and forced teams and players into the uncomfortable situation of resolving discrepancies of this nature while games are being played.

The 30-year-old Jackson has had a roller-coaster career with the Braves but enjoyed perhaps his finest season in 2021, pitching 63 2/3 innings of 1.98 ERA ball and piling up 31 holds as the team’s primary setup man. He fanned 26.8% of his opponents with a strong 52.5% grounder rate, both of which helped to offset an unpalatable 11.1% walk rate. Jackson struggled considerably in 2020 but otherwise has ranged from a serviceable to high-quality bullpen piece, evidenced by a combined 3.93 ERA in 254 innings from 2017-21.

Unfortunately for Jackson, he won’t have the chance to bolster his earning power with a repeat of last year’s performance. It’s particularly poor timing — not that there’s “good” timing for a major injury and surgery — given that Jackson has five-plus years of Major League service and is slated to become a free agent for the first time following the 2022 season. He could still garner interest on a Major League deal, especially since his surgery was performed so early in the season, but the type of multi-year deal he might’ve commanded upon replicating his 2021 output is no longer feasible.

The Braves have now won hearings over two of their arbitration-eligible players, as they also topped Austin Riley in a hearing last week. They still have unresolved cases against lefty Max Fried ($6.6MM vs. $6.85MM), shortstop Dansby Swanson ($9.2MM vs. $10MM) and outfielder Adam Duvall ($9.275MM vs. $10.275MM).

Luke Jackson Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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The Braves announced Wednesday that right-hander Luke Jackson underwent Tommy John surgery this morning. It was a widely expected move after Atlanta’s prior announcement that their longtime reliever had been diagnosed with a damaged ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. The Braves had already placed Jackson on the 60-day injured list, but today’s surgery formally closes the book on his 2022 season and, potentially, on his time with the organization. Jackson will be a free agent at season’s end.

Jackson’s loss is a notable one for the Braves, as the 30-year-old righty bounced back from a career-worst campaign in 2020 to post a career-best season in 2021. In 63 2/3 frames out of Brian Snitker’s bullpen last season, Jackson logged a a career-low 1.98 ERA with a 26.8% strikeout rate against an 11.1% walk rate. He yielded just six home runs on the season and racked up 31 holds on the year — second-most in all of Major League Baseball (behind Los Angeles’ Blake Treinen).

Notably, the Braves and Jackson haven’t even agreed on the right-hander’s salary for the 2022 season. A strange wrinkle from the 99-day lockout this offseason, there are still a handful of players throughout the league who exchanged figures with the team but have not yet settled on a deal. Jackson is among them, filing for a $4MM salary against the Braves’ filing of a $3.6MM sum. Arbitration salaries are based entirely on prior performance — they’re typically sorted in the offseason — and a potential arbitration hearing would only factor in Jackson’s prior performance rather than his current injury status.

Of course, one might wonder whether the Braves would try to now reengage on the possibility of a multi-year deal aimed at keeping Jackson at a lower price point in 2023 (and perhaps into 2024) than he’d have otherwise commanded. That’s purely speculative, but the Braves did put together a similarly structured deal for veteran reliever Kirby Yates this past winter.

If Jackson indeed simply reaches free agency as scheduled, he’d hit the open market at a time when teams know he could very well miss a month or two of the 2023 season. That doesn’t necessarily stop a Tommy John pitcher from securing a solid contract (as Yates and many others have proved), but it’d be an obvious dampener on what could’ve been some notable earning power for Jackson.

Even without Jackson, the Braves still ought to have a strong bullpen. Newcomers Kenley Jansen and Collin McHugh will join holdovers Will Smith, Tyler Matzek and A.J. Minter as experienced late-inning options. The aforementioned Yates is expected to rejoin the club at some point this summer, adding another All-Star-caliber arm to the mix. That’s not to diminish the importance Jackson held, but the Atlanta front office is surely glad to have bolstered the relief corps over the winter now that last year’s top setup option is done for the year.

Braves Select Darren O’Day, Place Luke Jackson On 60-Day IL

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The Braves have announced that they have selected the contract of reliever Darren O’Day, who they had signed to a minor league deal in November. To make room on the 40-man roster, fellow reliever Luke Jackson was placed on the 60-day IL. Additionally, Kyle Muller was optioned to Triple-A.

O’Day, 39, is a veteran side-arming righty who made his MLB debut with the Angels back in 2008. After spending some time with the Mets and Rangers, he landed with the Orioles and stayed for his longest stretch with any one club, spending seven seasons in Baltimore from 2012 to 2018. He then spent two seasons with Atlanta before donning Yankee pinstripes last year, and will now rejoin the Braves this year.

Over his 587 1/3 career innings, he holds an ERA of 2.53, strikeout rate of 25.8% and walk rate of 6.8%, all excellent numbers. However, he was limited to just 10 2/3 innings last year due to various injuries. He had a player option that could have kept him in the Bronx this year with a $1.4MM salary, but he chose the $700K buyout instead. His deal with the Braves will guarantee him $1MM, meaning that he earned himself an extra $300K by opting for the buyout.

As for Jackson, his IL placement isn’t terribly surprising after yesterday’s news that he may require Tommy John surgery. Although that surgery is not yet guaranteed, this move assures that he will be out of action for at least a couple of months. The 30-year-old had a tremendous breakout season last year, throwing 63 2/3 innings of 1.98 ERA ball, helping the club win the NL West and eventually hoist the World Series trophy. Unfortunately, he won’t be able to build on that campaign due to this injury. The club has bolstered their bullpen this offseason with the additions of Collin McHugh and Kenley Jansen. With Jackson landing on the shelf, O’Day will step in as yet another veteran presence.

Luke Jackson Diagnosed With Damaged UCL

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The Braves received disheartening news regarding the health of reliever Luke Jackson, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (via Twitter). The team announced MRI results that revealed damage to his ulnar collateral ligament, an injury that often results in Tommy John surgery.

Jackson will explore all the options before making a decision, but Tommy John surgery is certainly within the realm of possibility. In that case, Jackson would not be likely to return until sometime during the 2023 season.

The 30-year-old right-hander is coming off a breakout year for the World Champion Braves. Jackson made 71 appearances, logging 63 2/3 innings, and posted  a sparkling 1.98 ERA during the regular season. There may have been some bounces in Jackson’s favor, as fielding independent pitching marked his performance at 3.66 runs per nine innings. Regardless, he recorded a career-high 31 holds in 2021.

The Braves invested heavily in their bullpen this offseason, however, and ought to be able to weather the loss of Jackson. Kenley Jansen, Kirby Yates, and Collin McHugh were all added to the bullpen this winter to balance lefties Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, and A.J. Minter as late game options for Atlanta.

Braves Notes: Rotation, Jackson, Freeman

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During last year’s World Series run, the Braves found themselves mixing and matching at the back of the rotation behind Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Ian Anderson. Atlanta hasn’t done much to solidify that group this winter, leaving themselves to again count on a handful of less-proven arms at the back end.

Manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) over the weekend that righties Kyle Wright and Huascar Ynoa look like the favorites for the fourth and fifth spots. Ynoa always seemed to have a leg up after posting a 4.05 ERA/3.62 SIERA in 18 appearances last season. Wright, on the other hand, made just two regular season starts in the majors. The 26-year-0ld had a nice showing at Triple-A Gwinnett, where he worked 137 frames of 3.02 ERA ball. A former top five pick and highly-regarded prospect, Wright hasn’t yet had a ton of MLB success, but his minor league production and the quality of his arsenal still offer reason for Atlanta brass to believe in him as a long-term option.

The Braves are scheduled to play every day from their April 7 opener through April 20. With that heavy workload to start the year, Toscano writes the club could lean on a six-man starting staff early on. If that bears out, rookie Spencer Strider — who climbed four minor league levels last season to reach the majors in September — could assume the final spot, Toscano writes, with lefties Tucker Davidson and Kyle Muller also in that mix.

All those pitchers outside the Braves top three starters have minor league option years remaining, so any of that group could be sent back to Gwinnett throughout the season. They could also spill over into a multi-inning role out of the bullpen. Atlanta has one of the league’s strongest relief units on paper, but a key member has yet to pitch this spring.

Luke Jackson has been dealing with some forearm tightness, the team told reporters (including David O’Brien of the Athletic). The 30-year-old has been throwing on the side, so the Braves clearly aren’t concerned he’s facing a significant absence, but it’s not known whether he’ll have time to get into regular season game shape by next week. Jackson has been in the Atlanta bullpen for the past five years, but he had a particularly successful showing in 2021, pitching to a 1.98 ERA/3.75 SIERA in 63 2/3 frames.

While the Braves rotation looks much the same as it did last season, their position player shakeup was one of the stories of the offseason. Atlanta acquired Matt Olson and let Freddie Freeman walk in free agency. General manager Alex Anthopoulos and the front office were no doubt aware that decision would be a divisive one among the fanbase, and Freeman himself suggested in the immediate aftermath he was taken aback by the Olson trade. At his introductory press conference with the Dodgers, Freeman suggested Braves brass wasn’t as communicative as he’d expected they’d be throughout his stint on the open market. He also seemed to dismiss Anthopoulos’ assertion the Olson trade was the most difficult move of his executive career.

Chatting with the Journal-Constitution’s Gabriel Burns over the weekend, Freeman walked back those comments and took a brighter tone. The five-time All-Star said he chatted with the Braves baseball ops head last week and apologized for the comments he’d made at his introductory presser. “It helped to hear his side of things,” Freeman told Burns. “I won’t divulge what we talked about. But you can imagine what we talked about in three hours. It was good for us to now be good again. Now, when we see each other, we can just hug. I asked him to come to LA (for the series in April). I don’t think he was going to come to the LA series when they came out. I said, ‘Please, I want to see you and give you a hug because we did so many good things together.’”

Regardless of whether the fences are mended, the Braves and Dodgers figure to have plenty of memorable clashes over the coming seasons. The pair met in last year’s NL Championship Series, and they again look to be two of the top teams in the Senior Circuit. FanGraphs’ projections indeed forecast Los Angeles and Atlanta as the NL’s top two clubs heading into the year.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 12/2/20

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With the non-tender deadline coming today at 7pm CT, expect quite a few players to agree to contracts for the 2021 season, avoiding arbitration in advance.  In many (but not all) cases, these deals — referred to as “pre-tender” deals because they fall prior to the deadline — will fall shy of expectations and projections.  Teams will sometimes present borderline non-tender candidates with a “take it or leave it” style offer which will be accepted for fear of being non-tendered and sent out into an uncertain market.  Speculatively, such deals could increase in 2020 due to the economic uncertainty sweeping through the game, although there are also widespread expectations of record non-tender numbers.

You can track all of the arbitration and non-tender activity here, and we’ll also run through today’s smaller-scale pre-tender deals in this post.  You can also check out Matt Swartz’s arbitration salary projections here.

Latest Agreements

Earlier Agreements

  • Twins righty Jose Berrios will earn $6.1MM with a $500K signing bonus in 2021, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports. Catcher Mitch Garver will rake in $1.875MM, per Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News. Center fielder Byron Buxton ($5.125MM) and reliever Taylor Rogers (terms not released) also agreed to deals, according to Phil Miller of the Star Tribune.
  • The Phillies have deals with starter Zach Eflin ($4.45MM) and relievers Hector Neris ($5MM), David Hale ($850K) and Seranthony Dominguez ($727,500), Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia, Heyman and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com relay.
  • The Marlins and first baseman Garrett Cooper have a $1.8MM agreement that could max out at $2.05MM with performance bonuses, Craig Mish of Sportsgrid tweets.
  • The Brewers are keeping catcher Manny Pina in the fold for $1.65MM, according to Heyman. They’re also retaining first baseman Daniel Vogelbach for $1.4MM, Nightengale reports.
  • The Giants and outfielder Austin Slater have a one-year, $1.15MM deal, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.The club also reached a $925K agreement with lefty Wandy Peralta and a $700K pact with righty Trevor Gott, Heyman tweets.
  • The Cubs are bringing back hurlers Dan Winkler ($900K), Colin Rea ($702,500) and Kyle Ryan ($800K), Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Ryan’s agreement is a split contract that features a $250K minor league salary.
  • The Mets are retaining lefty Steven Matz for $5.2MM, Nightengale tweets. Matz had a brutal campaign in 2020 with a 9.68 ERA/7.76 FIP over 30 2/3 innings in 2020, but the Mets will give him a chance to rebound.
  • The Padres and lefty Matt Strahm have a one-year, $2MM deal, Nightengale reports. Strahm gave the Padres a 2.61 ERA/4.93 FIP in 20 2/3 innings in 2020.
  • Outfielder Guillermo Heredia, whom the Mets claimed from Pittsburgh in August, will earn $1MM in 2021, according to Nightengale.
  • The Astros and reliever Austin Pruitt have settled for $617, 500, per Heyman. The right-hander missed the season with elbow issues.
  • The Royals and outfielder Jorge Soler have agreed to a one-year, $8.05MM deal with $250K in incentives, Nightengale reports. Soler was a 48-home run hitter in 2019, but his production went backward this past season, in which he slashed .228/.326/.443 with eight HRs in 174 trips to the plate.
  • The Red Sox have kept relievers Matt Barnes ($4.4MM) and Ryan Brasier ($1.25MM) and catcher Kevin Plawecki ($1.6MM), per tweets from Nightengale, Robert Murray of FanSided and Heyman. Barnes has been a solid reliever as a member of the Red Sox, though he yielded more than five walks per nine and upward of four runs per nine in 2020. Brasier was more successful this past season, as he tossed 25 frames of 3.96 ERA/3.15 FIP ball and averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine. Plawecki had a nice year as the backup to Christian Vazquez, as he batted .341/.393/.463 in 89 PA.
  • The Giants and southpaw Jarlin Garcia have settled for $950K, according to Heyman. Garcia is coming off an 18 1/3-inning effort in which he posted a near-perfect 0.49 (with an impressive 3.14 FIP) and 6.87 K/9 against 3.44 BB/9.
  • The Marlins have agreed to a one-year, $4.3MM deal with first baseman Jesus Aguilar, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. The 30-year-old slugger put up strong numbers in his first year with the Fish, slashing .277/.352/.457 with eight long balls in 216 plate appearances.
  • The Giants and outfielder Alex Dickerson settled at a year and $2MM, tweets Nightengale. The 30-year-old slugger has a lengthy injury history but has been excellent in limited work with the Giants, including a .298/.371/.576 slash in 170 plate appearances this past season.
  • Luis Cessa will be back with the Yankees on a one-year deal, tweets Nightengale. He’ll earn $1.05MM. The righty notched a 3.32 ERA and 3.79 FIP with a 17-to-7 K/BB ratio in 21 2/3 innings this past season. Fellow righty Ben Heller will also return, the team announced, though it didn’t disclose financial details.
  • First baseman Matt Olson and the Athletics settled on a one-year deal worth $5MM, tweets Nightengale. The 26-year-old Olson’s .198/.310/.424 slash was an obvious step back from his 2019 campaign, but he’s still viewed as a vital part of the club’s future moving forward.
  • The Braves and righty Luke Jackson agreed to a one-year deal, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The 29-year-old was rocked for a 6.84 ERA in this year’s shortened slate of games but posted a 3.84 ERA and 3.24 FIP with better than 13 K/9 as one of the team’s steadiest relievers in 2019. The contract is valued at $1.9MM, per a team announcement.
  • The Brewers are bringing back catcher Omar Narvaez for one year and $2.5MM, Heyman tweets. Narvaez was a very good offensive catcher from 2o16-19 with the White Sox and Mariners, but he struggled last season after the M’s traded him to the Brewers. Thanks in part to a career-worst 31 percent strikeout rate, Narvaez could only muster a .176/.294/.269 line and a paltry two HRs in 126 plate appearances. Nevertheless, he’s in line to return to the Brewers for a second season.
  • The Brewers have agreed to a one-year, $2MM contract with shortstop Orlando Arcia, Nightengale relays. Arcia endured serious struggles on offense in prior years, but the 26-year-old managed a respectable .260/.317/.416 line with five home runs over 189 plate appearances this past season.
  • The Phillies and catcher Andrew Knapp have reached a one-year, $1.1MM agreement, per Nightengale. Typically a light-hitting backstop, Knapp batted a career-best .278/.404/.444 in 89 plate appearances in 2020. He’s currently the No. 1 catcher on a Phillies team that could lose J.T. Realmuto in free agency.
  • Pirates infielder Erik Gonzalez agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.225MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. It was the second year of arb eligibility for Gonzalez, whose glovework will earn him a contract despite a brutal .227/.255/.359 batting line in 193 plate appearances in 2020.
  • The Royals and Hunter Dozier agreed to a one-year deal worth $2.72MM in entirely guaranteed money, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports.  More is available to Dozier via contract incentives.  Dozier hit .228/.344/.392 over 186 PA after missing over the first two weeks of the season recovering from a positive COVID-19 diagnosis.
  • The Red Sox agreed to an $870K deal with right-hander Austin Brice for the 2021 season, as per Nightengale.  Brice posted a 5.95 ERA, 11.4 K/9, and 5.9 BB/9 over 19 2/3 innings in his first season in Boston, and was considered a potential non-tender candidate.
  • The Twins and righty Tyler Duffey agreed to a one-year, $2.2MM pact, SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson reports.  According to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, Duffey’s deal is fully guaranteed.
  • The Braves agreed to a one-year, $900K deal with southpaw Grant Dayton, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  Dayton had a 2.30 ERA over 27 1/3 innings in 2020.
  • The Braves announced an agreement with utilityman Johan Camargo on a one-year, $1.36MM deal.  Camargo was thought to be a non-tender candidate after struggling to a .222/.267/.378 slash line in 375 plate appearances over the last two seasons, but he will return for a fifth year in Atlanta.
  • The White Sox and left-hander Jace Fry agreed to a one-year deal worth $862.5K, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  Fry posted a 3.66 ERA, 2.00 K/BB rate, and 11.0 K/9 over 19 2/3 innings in 2020, and he has strong overall career numbers against left-handed batters.
  • The Orioles agreed with second baseman Yolmer Sanchez on a one-year deal worth $1MM, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).  Baltimore claimed Sanchez off waivers from the White Sox at the end of October.  A Gold Glove winner in 2019, Sanchez was non-tendered by Chicago prior to last year’s deadline, though after signing a minors deal with the Giants, he returned to the White Sox on another minors deal and appeared in 11 games on the South Side.
  • The Twins agreed to a one-year deal worth roughly $700K with left-hander Caleb Thielbar, The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman reports (via Twitter).  2020 marked Thielbar’s first taste of MLB action since 2015, as the southpaw worked his way back from independent ball to post a 2.25 ERA, 2.44 K/BB rate, and 9.9 K/9 over 20 innings for Minnesota.
  • The Dodgers and left-hander Scott Alexander have agreed to a one-year, $1MM deal, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link).  Alexander posted a 2.92 ERA over 12 1/3 innings out of the Los Angeles bullpen this season, recording an equal number of walks and strikeouts (nine).  The southpaw was thought to be a potential non-tender candidate given his relative lack of usage and his non-inclusion on the Dodgers’ playoff roster, but the team will retain Alexander for his second arb-eligible year.  ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter) adds the noteworthy detail that Alexander’s $1MM salary is fully guaranteed, as opposed to the usual contracts for arbitration-eligible players that allow their teams to release them prior to Opening Day and only pay a fraction of the agreed-upon salary.
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