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Tyler Mahle Can Push The Rangers Over The Tax Line

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The Rangers clearly want to avoid the competitive balance tax in 2025. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported as much way back in October and owner Ray Davis confirmed that plan to Grant in January.

There are likely a few reasons for the club taking this route. The Rangers were one of several clubs which had a broadcast deal with Main Street Sports, formerly known as the Diamond Sports Group. As that company was going through bankruptcy, several clubs saw their contracts fall apart. Some of those organizations renegotiated new deals with the company but with lower fees. Other wound up with the league running their broadcasts.

The Rangers took a different approach and decided to launch their own regional sports network (RSN). Several big market clubs own RSNs, either in whole or in part, and many of them are doing well financially. The Rangers may have taken a smart route in the long run but it also might take some time to get it set up from scratch.

With that uncertain financial situation, the club decided it would be a good time to reset its CBT status after paying the tax in 2023 and 2024. Teams face increasing tax rates for paying the CBT in consecutive years. A team that avoids the tax in one year can then go into the following year as a “first-time” payor. Most teams like to limbo under the line from time to time, just to go back to square one.

But the Rangers still wanted to compete. They signed multiple players this offseason, including Nathan Eovaldi, Joc Pederson, Kyle Higashioka, Patrick Corbin, Kevin Pillar and a whole bunch of relievers. In the end, they came close to the line without going over it, at least according to publicly available metrics. RosterResource currently pegs them at $236.4MM, less than $5MM from the $241MM base threshold. Cot’s Baseball Contracts has them even closer at $237.8MM. Those are just estimates but they are probably close to accurate, given that the club wanted to be a bit under.

However, a club’s CBT number isn’t calculated until the end of the season, with any in-season developments being factored in. That includes contract bonuses/incentives for guys already on the club. Any players added midseason, such as in deadline trades, would also count.

That will be a situation worth watching in the coming months as the Rangers are currently atop the American League West with a 14-10 record. Assuming they stay in the race into the month of July, they should be deadline buyers. But if they want to stay under the tax, they may need their moves to be revenue neutral, or they might even need to move some money off their books.

Creeping just barely over the line wouldn’t lead to a massive tax bill. The club would be a third-time payor and subject to a 50% base tax rate. A hypothetical overage of $1MM would only lead to $500K in taxes, which is nothing for a baseball club. But it would mean the club would also face a 50% base tax rate in 2026, whereas ducking under the line this year and becoming a “first-time” payor means a 20% base tax rate next year. Avoiding the tax also changes the penalties and compensation for qualifying offer situations, providing another incentive to a team to stay under the line if they are near it.

In short, the CBT number is a living, breathing thing which will be moving throughout the year and it should have a real impact on the club’s deadline approach. There are many players with bonuses in their contract, but Tyler Mahle is the most notable with $5MM. Assuming the calculations of the club’s current CBT number are correct, that means he can single-handedly push them over the line.

Mahle was coming off May 2023 Tommy John surgery when the Rangers signed him to a back-loaded deal heading into 2024. It was a two-year, $22MM guarantee, with the Rangers knowing they likely wouldn’t get much in 2024. As such, they only paid him $5.5MM in the first year, followed by $16.5MM in 2025 with $5MM also available in incentives.

As expected, the Rangers didn’t get much from Mahle last year. He came off the injured list in August and made just three starts before some shoulder tightness put him back on the IL again. He stayed there for the remainder of the campaign.

Now in 2025, the Rangers seem to be getting what they hoped for. Mahle has been healthy and also in excellent form. He has a 0.68 earned run average though his first five starts. There’s a bit of luck in there from a .156 batting average on balls in play and 90.9% strand rate but he’s been a big part of their early-season success regardless.

The only downside for the Rangers is that Mahle’s bonuses are very achievable. MLBTR has learned that he gets an extra $500K for getting to 100 innings, $1MM each at 110, 120 and 130 innings, then $1.5MM at 140 innings.

He’s not a lock to earn the full $5MM, as he only has one season in his career where he got to 140 innings. He was still getting optioned to the minors at times in 2018 and 2019 and then fully established himself during the shortened 2020 season, before logging 180 frames in 2021. Shoulder troubles capped him at 120 2/3 in 2022, and then the aforementioned Tommy John surgery limited him in the following two seasons. Still, with the Rangers so close to the line, it could be a notable development even if he gets into triple digits and nudges them closer a million or two.

If he stays healthy, he would unlock the full $5MM easily. The Rangers might be tempted to back off his workload, as they did with Andrew Heaney in 2023. Heaney had a $13MM player option for 2024, which would bump up to $20MM if he hit 150 innings in 2023. The Rangers moved him to the bullpen to prevent that from happening, with Heaney finishing the year at 147 1/3 innings.

Doing the same with Mahle might be tricky if he continues pitching well. The Rangers have Cody Bradford, Jon Gray and Jack Leiter on the injured list. Kumar Rocker has a 6.38 ERA through four starts this year. Corbin is holding his own right now but hasn’t had an ERA under 5.00 in a full season since 2019. Jacob deGrom and Eovaldi are out to good starts but each is in his mid-30s with a notable injury track record. In short, this team might need Mahle more than the 2023 Rangers needed Heaney.

There are other players who could also factor in to lesser degrees. Luke Jackson is the second most notable after Mahle, as he is earning a $1.5MM base salary but could earn as much as $4MM via incentives, an extra $2.5MM. He can unlock $75K for pitching in 20 games, $100K at 25, $125 at 30, $150K at 35, $175K at 40, $225K at 45, $250K at 50, $300 at 55 and $350K at 60. That’s potentially an extra $1.75MM just for appearances. There’s another $750K for games finished: $50K for 25, $100K for 30, $150K for 35, $200K for 40 and $250K for 45. He has taken over the club’s closer role in the early going and already has nine games finished and ten appearances overall.

Corbin has batches of bonuses based both on innings pitched and relief appearances, so he should get paid some extra money as long as he’s healthy, regardless of which role the Rangers have him in. He gets $100K at 40 and 55 innings, $150K at 70 and 85, $200K at 100 and 115, $250K at 130, 145 and 160, then $350K at 170. He also gets $100K for 35 relief appearances, $150K for 40, $200K for 45, $250K for 50, $300K for 55. He’s in the rotation for now and those relief appearance bonuses are unlikely to be a factor, but he could certainly earn more money based on innings pitched. Getting to 170 innings pitched and unlocking all the bonuses would be an extra $2MM.

Chris Martin can earn an extra $150K by getting to 45 innings pitched this year and again at 50 frames, followed by $200K at 55 innings. Hoby Milner can get an extra $100K at 35 and then 45 innings, then an extra $150K at 55 and 65. Jacob Webb is making $1.25MM this year but can get that to $1.5MM via incentives worth $250K. MLBTR has learned that Webb gets $50K at 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 innings pitched. Josh Sborz can unlock an extra $25K at five innings, $50K at 10, $75K at 15, $100K at 20. He underwent shoulder surgery in November and is expected to miss at least the first half of the season.

deGrom and Eovaldi have the same awards bonuses. They can earn an extra $250K for winning the Cy Young this year, as well as $200K, $150K, $100K or $50K for finishing second, third, fourth or fifth in the voting. They can also get $150K for winning World Series MVP, as well as $100K for getting an All-Star selection, a Gold Glove award, or LCS MVP. Pederson can get an extra $150K for winning MVP, $100K for an All-Star selection or World Series MVP, plus $50K for for a Silver Slugger or LCS MVP.

All of those bonuses could nudge the Rangers closer to the line or even over it, which will make for an interesting balancing act this summer. As mentioned, they will almost certainly be looking for upgrades as the deadline rolls around but they might also have to move some money around if they continue to plan on avoiding the tax.

Pederson is out to an awful start, so maybe they try to flip him somewhere else, though they would surely have to attach prospect talent in order to convince another club to absorb his contract. He is earning $13MM this year and will be owed $18.5MM next year. He can opt out after 2025 with the club able to override that by picking up a two-year option at $18.5MM annually for 2026 and 2027. If he continues struggling, he will obviously not take that opt-out.

Gray is making $13MM this year, the final season of his contract. He has been on the injured list all season due to a wrist fracture and it’s unclear when he’ll be back. It’s possible the Rangers won’t need him in the rotation once he’s healthy, depending on how others are performing. His deal has an AAV of $14MM, so trading him just ahead of the deadline could shave almost $5MM off the club’s CBT number. However, doing so would subtract from the club’s rotation depth. His trade value will also depend on how he heals up and performs in the coming months.

There are a great many factors at play here, but taking them all into consideration, it feels as though the Rangers are going to be right near the edge. If they abandon their desire to avoid the tax, that could simplify a lot. But if not, they will have to be watching all these numbers in the coming months.

Photos courtesy of Jerome Miron and Kevin Jairaj, Imagn Images

Rangers Sign Luke Jackson

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The Rangers announced Monday that they’ve signed righty Luke Jackson to a one-year, major league contract. Righty Josh Sborz was placed on the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man roster spot. Sborz is recovering from November shoulder surgery. Jackson, who is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council, is reportedly guaranteed $1.5MM plus performance bonuses.

Jackson, 33, returns to the organization that originally selected him with the No. 45 overall pick in the 2010 draft. Texas traded Jackson to the Braves in 2016, receiving pitchers Brady Feigl and Tyrell Jenkins in return. Neither wound up throwing a major league pitch for the Rangers, while Jackson eventually emerged as a valuable setup man for the Braves, with his best year coming during the team’s 2021 World Series campaign.

Tommy John surgery cost Jackson the 2022 season — his final year of control with Atlanta before becoming a free agent. He landed a two-year, $11.5MM pact with the Giants in free agency, pitching well in year one of the deal (33 1/3 innings, 2.97 ERA in his return from surgery) before struggling in year two. He went back to the Braves alongside Jorge Soler in a salary-driven deadline swap. Jackson posted a 4.50 ERA in 18 innings with the Braves but also walked 13% of his opponents.

Jackson’s 5.09 ERA in 53 innings last season isn’t encouraging, but he posted a 1.98 ERA and that 2.97 mark on either end of his elbow surgery. Between those two seasons, he totaled 97 innings with a 2.32 ERA, 28% strikeout rate and 10.9% walk rate. He worked plenty of high-leverage spots, particularly with Atlanta in 2021, when he racked up a career-best 31 holds.

That’ll be the form the Rangers hope to capture in 2025. Jackson’s 94.7 mph average fastball this past season was down noticeably from his 96.1 mph peak, but he averaged only 94.4 mph in 2023, so there’s evidence to suggest he can succeed even if his heater never quite bounces back to pre-surgery levels. Jackson also induced chases off the plate at a solid 31.8% clip and recorded a strong 13.5% swinging-strike rate. His command has never been great and has been particularly problematic since his elbow troubles arose, but he can still miss bats and pile up grounders — as evidenced by last year’s 50.7% clip.

Jackson becomes the incredible seventh new addition to a completely rebuilt Rangers bullpen this offseason. Texas saw Kirby Yates, David Robertson, Jose Leclerc and Andrew Chafin become free agents at season’s end. With the team’s priority being to re-sign Nathan Eovaldi and add some bats who could help remedy last year’s struggles versus fastballs, the bulk of their offseason spending went to a three-year deal, $75MM for Eovaldi and a two-year, $37MM deal for Joc Pederson. Ownership has been steadfast in its desire to drop back under the luxury tax, leaving president of baseball operations Chris Young to take a volume-based approach to rounding out the relief corps rather than doling out pricey eight-figure deals to keep Yates, Leclerc and Robertson (who’s still unsigned but will presumably land an eight-figure deal himself, or at least close to it).

Chris Martin’s $5.5MM guarantee is the most expensive commitment Texas has made to a reliever this winter. The Rangers have also signed Hoby Milner ($2.5MM), Jacob Webb ($1.25MM), Shawn Armstrong ($1.25MM) and Luis Curvelo ($750K) to big league contracts. Lefty Robert Garcia was acquired from the Nationals in a trade that sent first baseman Nathaniel Lowe and his own eight-figure salary to Washington, thereby creating some flexibility for relatively big-money signings of Eovaldi and Pederson.

Texas was only about $7MM from the luxury tax threshold before agreeing to terms with Jackson. It stands to reason that he’s inking a similarly cost-effective deal to the ones signed by Milner, Webb and Armstrong. Unlike that trio, he does have a fair bit of high-leverage experience, which could give him a leg up when it comes to auditioning for setup or even closing work. If the Rangers want to leave some powder dry for in-season acquisitions, they might not have much capacity left for adding further big league free agents between now and Opening Day.

Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reported the $1.5MM guarantee.

Braves Decline Club Option On Travis d’Arnaud

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The Braves announced that they have declined their club options on catcher Travis d’Arnaud and right-hander Luke Jackson while picking up their option on designated hitter Marcell Ozuna. Jeff Passan of ESPN relayed the d’Arnaud news on X prior to the official announcement. The d’Arnaud option was for $8MM and came with no buyout and he will now enter the open market. Jackson will head to free agency as well, collecting a $2MM buyout instead of a $7MM salary next year. Ozuna’s option had a $1MM buyout but the club will bring him back with a $16MM salary instead.

The news on d’Arnaud is the most surprising development. Just one month ago, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said in his end-of-season press conference that the club was planning to pick up options on each of d’Arnaud, Ozuna and left-hander Aaron Bummer. They did indeed pick up Ozuna’s option while Bummer agreed to a reworked deal yesterday that saw the club essentially trigger Bummer’s two club options for 2025 and 2026, though with Bummer sacrificing a small amount of total earnings in exchange for more money to be locked in upfront.

The new deal for Bummer and also one for Reynaldo López saw Atlanta kick some money from their 2025 payroll ahead to 2026, indicating that payroll flexibility in the coming season is an ongoing issue for them. That’s likely a factor for the d’Arnaud call also, as the club can keep some powder dry for their offseason pursuits and perhaps circle back to d’Arnaud later in the winter.

Per RosterResource, Atlanta is projected for a payroll of $215MM next year, just $20MM shy of this year’s figure. They have plenty to do this winter, as they are set to lose Max Fried and Charlie Morton to free agency, opening up two rotation holes. It’s also possible that they could pursue upgrades over Orlando Arcia at shortstop, tweaks to the bullpen or other moves. Triggering d’Arnaud’s option would have locked in another $8MM today but it seems the club would rather hold onto that bit of spending capacity at least for now.

Atlanta clearly likes d’Arnaud, as they have a relationship that goes back a ways. He just finished his fifth season with the club, having signed multiple deals to stay in town. They signed him to a two-year, $16MM deal going into 2020. Late in 2021, as that deal was winding down, the two sides agreed to extend the relationship by another two years and with another $16MM. Midway through 2023, they agreed to another extension, locking in an $8MM salary for 2024 and the club option which has been turned down today.

During that time, d’Arnaud has hit .251/.312/.443 for a 106 wRC+. His framing and blocking have generally been well regarded and FanGraphs has considered him to have been worth 9.3 wins above replacement over his 384 games with Atlanta.

The club has clearly viewed him as worth $8MM per year in the past but isn’t locking him in at that price point now, despite Anthopoulos suggesting a month ago they likely would. He’ll now head to free agency and be one of the better backstops available. Guys like Danny Jansen, Kyle Higashioka and Carson Kelly are the best catchers in free agency this winter but d’Arnaud shouldn’t be too far behind that group.

With the shenanigans to move the López and Bummer money around and now d’Arnaud’s option being declined, perhaps the money is a bit tight for Atlanta at the moment. Given the way Anthopoulos operates, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them get creative on the trade market and move some contracts around, but the pursestrings might be a bit clenched for now.

As for Jackson, he’s had some good seasons in the past but has been up-and-down lately. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2022 season, just as he was headed into free agency. He signed a two-year, $11.5MM deal with the Giants going into 2023, with the aforementioned option for 2025. He was able to make 33 appearances last year with a 2.97 earned run average but his 2024 was more challenging. He missed time due to a lower back strain and eventually posted a 5.09 ERA on the year, getting traded back to Atlanta midseason. His 25.1% strikeout rate and 50.7% ground ball rate were solid but his 11.1% walk rate was on the high side.

Jackson has had some success in the past and got a solid deal even after missing a full season due to surgery. Spending $5MM on such a pitcher wouldn’t have been outrageous but it’s also not shocking to see the club move on when considering his poor 2024 campaign and their apparent budgetary concerns.

Braves Expect To Exercise Club Options On Ozuna, Bummer, d’Arnaud

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The Braves are planning to exercise their 2025 club options on designated hitter Marcell Ozuna, left-hander Aaron Bummer and catcher Travis d’Arnaud, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos implied as much at today’s end-of-season press conference, saying each has “put himself in a good spot.” All three had strong seasons — Ozuna in particular — so none of the decisions should register as a major surprise. Ozuna’s option calls for a $16MM salary next season, while Bummer will be paid $7.25MM and d’Arnaud $8MM.

Ozuna, 34 next month, slugged 39 home runs this season — the second-highest mark of his career — and turned in a robust .302/.378/.546 slash on the season. That production clocked in at a weighty 54% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+ (154). That’s the second-best mark of Ozuna’s career and his best mark in a full, 162-game campaign; his career-high 178 mark came during the shortened 2020 season. Dating back to 2023, Ozuna has clobbered 79 home runs for the Braves and played in all but 18 of their games.

Atlanta’s deadline acquisition of Jorge Soler makes the 2025 roster a bit clunky with Ozuna also in the fold. Both are nominal corner outfielders who are best deployed primarily as a designated hitter. The Braves plugged Soler into their injury-plagued outfield mix after acquiring him this summer, in hopes of bolstering a lineup that was missing Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II at the time.

Soler did just that, hitting .243/.356/.493 and clubbing nine homers in 193 plate appearances in his return to Atlanta, but he also posted brutal defensive marks in a third of a season of left field work (-10 Defensive Runs Saved, -6 Outs Above Average). With Soler signed through 2026, Atlanta could try to live with his defense for a year and then turn Ozuna’s DH slot over to Soler in 2026, but there will surely be at least some degree of trade chatter surrounding Soler this winter as well.

As for the other two option calls, both seemed obvious. Bummer was acquired from the White Sox last offseason and had a nice first year in his new environs, rebounding from a down year to provide 55 1/3 innings of 3.58 ERA ball with even better underlying metrics. The 6’3″ southpaw punched out 28.3% of his opponents and issued walks at only a 7.4% clip — the second-lowest mark of his career. His 59.7% ground-ball rate, while lower than his mammoth 64.9% career mark, was still about 17 percentage points higher than the league average. Add in the fact that his option came with a $1.25MM buyout (effectively making it a net $6MM call) and that his contract also contains a $7.5MM club option for 2026, and there was never much doubt he’d be back in ’25.

Turning to the 35-year-old d’Arnaud (36 in February), he’ll be back for a sixth season at Truist Park after slashing .238/.302/.436 with 15 homers in 341 plate appearances. That’s only a bit better than league-average on a rate basis (103 wRC+), but it’s strong production relative to catchers throughout the league, who tend to be about 10% worse than average at the plate. It’s particularly stout production for a team’s No. 2 catcher, which is the role d’Arnaud will occupy with Sean Murphy still in the early stages of a six-year contract.

Injuries to Murphy expanded d’Arnaud’s workload this year, and he handled the increased usage reasonably well on both sides of the plate. His 19.1% caught-stealing rate was below par, but not by much, and his framing work was roughly average. Statcast credited him as slightly better than average when it comes to blocking balls in the dirt. As d’Arnaud enters his age-36 season, it’s always possible that his defensive skills could drop off sharply, but assuming better health from Murphy, d’Arnaud will probably also be asked to shoulder a smaller workload than 2024’s 706 innings.

The Braves hold a fourth club option as well — a $7MM option on right-hander Luke Jackson. Atlanta reacquired the longtime Brave alongside Soler in that deadline swap with the Giants. He pitched 18 innings with a 4.50 ERA and huge 31% strikeout rate … but also a 13.1% walk rate. Coupled with his time in San Francisco, he finished the season with a 5.09 ERA, 25.1% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate in 53 innings.

Jackson’s option comes with a $2MM buyout, but even at a net $5MM price the Braves seem likely to move on. Atlanta has a deep (and expensive) bullpen featuring Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson and the aforementioned Bummer. That quartet alone will combine for $39.75MM in 2025 salary. The Braves will also see lefty Dylan Lee reach arbitration for the first time.

Braves Acquire Jorge Soler

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Jorge Soler is headed back to Atlanta. The Braves reacquired both Soler and reliever Luke Jackson from the Giants on Monday night in what amounts to a salary dump for San Francisco. The Giants acquire minor league infielder Sabin Ceballos and take on the salary for injured reliever Tyler Matzek. Atlanta designated Darius Vines for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot.

Atlanta is looking to recreate the magic of their 2021 deadline. The Braves brought in Soler and Eddie Rosario that summer to address an outfield that had lost Ronald Acuña Jr. to a season-ending ACL tear. Those outfield acquisitions drove Atlanta’s run to a championship, with Soler snagging World Series MVP honors behind a three-homer performance in the Fall Classic.

The Braves unfortunately lost Acuña to another ACL tear in late May, leaving them shorthanded in the outfield as the deadline approached. They already took a flier on Rosario, signing him after he was released by the Nationals. That hasn’t worked thus far, as Rosario is hitting .164/.186/.345 in 16 games.

Soler should step into everyday playing time in right field. Adam Duvall has gotten the bulk of the work there since the Acuña injury, but he’s hitting only .188/.251/.336 over 295 plate appearances. Atlanta signed Duvall to work as a short side platoon bat alongside Jarred Kelenic in left field. Duvall has continued to hit left-handed pitching (.261/.361/.533 in 108 plate appearances), but he owns a dismal .153/.190/.239 line while striking out a third of the time against righties.

Duvall can now return to the more limited role which the Braves had envisioned him playing. Kelenic has been pressed mainly into center field action since Michael Harris II went down with a hamstring strain. Once Harris is ready to return, that’ll push Kelenic back to left field.

It’s an abrupt end to what proved a very brief stint for Soler in the Bay Area. The Giants signed him to a three-year, $42MM deal at the start of Spring Training. His tenure started inauspiciously, as he didn’t hit well for two months and missed some time with a minor shoulder strain. The Cuban-born slugger has been on a tear since the calendar flipped to June, hitting .280/.374/.486 over his most recent 204 plate appearances.

Thanks to his cold start, Soler’s season line is still below his typical level. He owns a .240/.330/.419 slash with 12 homers across 392 trips. His 11.2% walk percentage and 24.7% strikeout rate are in line with his normal marks, but Soler’s power output is down from last year’s 36-homer pace. While some of that is surely attributable to the challenge of hitting at Oracle Park, his batted ball metrics have also dropped. Soler’s average exit velocity is down a tick, while his 39.9% hard contact rate is eight percentage points below last year’s figure.

That’s probably part of the Giants’ rationale in getting out from under the contract within a few months of signing it. Atlanta desperately needed to inject some life into an offense that has hit .227/.281/.417 in July. The Braves have hovered around .500 for the better part of three months and have dropped back to the pack in the NL Wild Card race. At 56-49, they’re narrowly in possession of the top Wild Card spot. Only one and a half games separate them from the Diamondbacks, the top non-playoff team at the moment.

While the Braves are clearly reacquiring Soler for his bat, they’ll need to count on him to hold his own defensively. Soler didn’t play a single inning on defense for the Giants. He only made 31 starts in right field (compared to 102 at DH) last year with the Marlins. Marcell Ozuna has the designated hitter spot secured in Atlanta, so the Braves will trust Soler to play more or less every day in the field. Ozuna’s contract contains a $16MM club option for next season, which the Braves probably anticipate exercising. With Soler signed through 2026, they’d have a lot of defensively-limited hitters at that point. That’s a risk they’re prepared to take for the short-term lineup boost.

Atlanta’s “run it back” ethos doesn’t stop with Soler. Jackson was also a member of their ’21 World Series winner. The right-hander had the best year of his career that season, working to a 1.98 ERA across 63 2/3 innings. Jackson’s elbow blew out the next year, sending him for Tommy John surgery that seemed as if it’d end his Braves tenure. He hit free agency during the 2022-23 offseason and landed in San Francisco on a two-year, $11.5MM guarantee.

Jackson spent the first half of last season finishing his Tommy John rehab. He returned to throw 33 1/3 frames of 2.97 ERA ball down the stretch. Jackson quickly landed on the shelf with a lower back strain and hasn’t managed the same caliber of production since returning in late April. He’s carrying a 5.40 earned run average over 35 innings. His 21.9% strikeout percentage and 9.9% walk rate are each slightly worse than average, though he’s getting ground-balls at a strong 51% clip.

The 32-year-old (33 in August) has looked much sharper of late. Jackson is running a 13:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio with three runs allowed in nine innings this month. The velocity on his slider and four-seam fastball are each in line with his career marks. The Braves can plug him into middle relief with the possibility for higher-leverage work alongside Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson and A.J. Minter if Jackson’s recent form kicks off a strong second half.

Atlanta is taking on a substantial amount of money for these reunions. There’s no cash changing hands, although Matzek’s inclusion in the deal provides a small financial counterbalance. He’s in the second season of a two-year, $3.1MM contract that has mostly been ruined by elbow problems. Matzek missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. He made 11 appearances early this season, allowing 11 runs in 10 innings, before going back on the injured list with elbow inflammation. Matzek remains on the 60-day IL with no clear return timetable. His deal contains a $5.5MM team option for next season that is sure to be declined.

The Giants paid Soler a $9MM signing bonus. He’s playing this season on a $7MM salary, around $2.3MM of which is still owed. Atlanta is taking on matching $13MM salaries covering the 2025-26 seasons. Jackson is making $6.5MM this year (roughly $2.1MM remaining) and is guaranteed at least a $2MM buyout on a $7MM option for next year. Matzek is due around $620K through season’s end. The Braves assume nearly $3.8MM in salary commitments for the stretch run plus the $28MM in future guarantees on Soler’s and Jackson’s deals.

RosterResource calculates Atlanta’s CBT number around $282MM. That pushes them past the $277MM third tier of penalization and positions their first-round pick in next year’s draft to drop 10 spots. Atlanta is a second-time payor, so they’re taxed at a 62% rate on spending up to the $297MM mark. The Giants shave nearly $7MM off their tax ledger and have an estimated $244MM mark at RosterResource. They’re still above the $237MM base threshold and may not be looking to drop any more money.

San Francisco also grabs a prospect in the deal. Ceballos, 21, was Atlanta’s third-round pick out of Oregon last year. A righty-hitting third baseman, he has a .259/.353/.354 slash with a 9.8% walk rate and 19.1% strikeout percentage in High-A this season. Baseball America ranked him as the #26 prospect in a weak Atlanta farm system, crediting him with a plus arm and some raw power upside.

As for Vines, he’ll either be traded tomorrow or (more likely) placed on waivers this week. The 26-year-old righty has made eight big league appearances, turning in a 5.45 ERA over 33 innings. He owns a 5.14 earned run average across 14 starts with Triple-A Gwinnett this season.

Mike Rodriguez first reported the Giants were trading Soler to the Braves. Robert Murray of FanSided was first to report Jackson’s inclusion. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Braves were assuming the entire contract.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Giants Recall Kai-Wei Teng For Major League Debut

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The Giants announced a series of roster moves today, with outfielder Luis Matos and right-hander Kai-Wai Teng recalled from Triple-A Sacramento. Teng will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. In corresponding moves, outfielder Mike Yastrzemski has been placed on the paternity list while right-hander Luke Jackson goes on the 15-day injured list with a lower back strain. Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase had reported earlier that Matos would be taking Yastrzemski’s place on the roster. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle first relayed that Teng was at the ballpark tonight.

Jackson departed last night’s game with an apparent back issue. He didn’t seem terribly concerned with the severity but the club evidently feels he will need at least a couple of weeks to get back on the mound.

His injury will pave the way for Teng to be called up to the big leagues for the first time. The 25-year-old was signed by the Twins as an international amateur out of Taiwan. He came to the Giants in the 2019 deadline deal that sent Sam Dyson to Minnesota.

He has climbed the rungs of the minor league ladder since then, showcasing strikeout stuff but also control issues. He split last year between Double-A and Triple-A, making 28 starts and one relief appearance, tossing 126 1/3 innings. He struck out 29.8% of batters faced but also gave out free passes at a 12.4% clip, leading to a combined earned run average of 4.42.

He was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He didn’t make the Opening Day roster but Jackson’s injury will allow him to come up just after. He’ll likely be in a long relief role out of the bullpen. The club is currently operating with 14 positions players and just 12 pitchers, meaning that eating multiple innings from the bullpen will be valuable for the club.

Injury Notes: Twins, E-Rod, Dodgers, Jackson

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The Twins won their season-opener against the Royals yesterday, jumping out to a quick 1-0 lead with a first-inning homer off the bat of burgeoning star Royce Lewis. The former No. 1 overall pick singled in his next at-bat but departed shortly thereafter, coming up lame when going first-to-third on a Carlos Correa double. The Twins announced that Lewis had a quadriceps injury. He underwent an MRI last night, per Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Further updates figure to be available before tomorrow’s game, though Miller notes that Lewis was optimistic and described the feeling as cramping more than severe pain.

In many ways, it’s a three-inning microcosm of Lewis’ career. The 24-year-old is a .313/.369/.564 hitter in 284 plate appearances — not including last year’s four postseason homers in 26 plate appearances — but he’s also twice torn his ACL and had IL stints for oblique and hamstring strains. A healthy Lewis has superstar potential, but injuries have been far too frequent early in his career. If Lewis requires a trip to the injured list, top prospect Brooks Lee won’t be an option to replace him. The 2022 No. 8 overall pick is dealing with a back injury, and Triple-A skipper Toby Gardenhire tells KSTP’s Darren Wolfson that he’ll be down for about three to four weeks (X link). Minnesota also had an injury scare with right fielder Max Kepler, who exited the game after fouling a ball into his leg. X-rays came back negative, per the Star-Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale (X link).

A few more injury situations worth monitoring as they unfold…

  • The Diamondbacks lost Eduardo Rodriguez to a lat strain late in spring training — a discouraging development for the left-hander, who inked a four-year deal worth $80MM over the winter. No timetable was provided at the time of the injury, but manager Torey Lovullo told the team’s beat yesterday that Rodriguez could throw off a mound in about five days (X link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). Jon Heyman of the New York Post, meanwhile, writes that the Snakes expect Rodriguez to be down for about a month. That’d be a notable absence but far from a worst-case scenario, as lat strains for pitchers can often result in multiple months on the shelf. In 152 2/3 frames last season, E-Rod notched a 3.30 ERA, 23% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate for the Tigers.
  • Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts provided a series of updates on some injured pitchers yesterday (X thread via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times). There was good news on both Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw, each of whom Roberts described as ahead of schedule. The Dodgers have made clear they’re being cautious with Buehler’s rehab from a second career Tommy John surgery, but the right-hander’s progress so far is encouraging enough that he’ll be back “sooner than I think we anticipated,” per Roberts. Kershaw, who had shoulder surgery in early November, is long-tossing from 120 feet and ahead of initial rehab projections. Roberts’ updates on righties Brusdar Graterol and Blake Treinen were far less encouraging. Both are playing catch but are “a ways away” from activation. Graterol was slowed by hip and shoulder troubles during camp, while Treinen suffered a bruised lung when a comeback liner hit him in the chest. The Dodgers originally suggested that it wouldn’t require a lengthy absence, but Treinen has yet to even throw a bullpen session.
  • Right-hander Luke Jackson exited last night’s game with Giants trainers after suffering some degree of back injury. Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that the 32-year-old Jackson underwent an MRI and will be further evaluated today. Jackson missed just under a month with a back strain last year but said following last night’s injury that the initial pain this time around was not as severe as it was in 2023. The Giants inked Jackson to a two-year, $11.5MM contract in the 2022-23 offseason while he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He made his team debut late last May and was excellent when healthy enough to be on the roster: 33 1/3 innings, 2.97 ERA, 30.1% strikeout rate. Last night, however, Jackson’s velocity was down more than a mile per hour from his 2023 average, and he allowed all three hitters he faced to reach base. All three came around to score.

Giants Designate Mauricio Llovera For Assignment

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The Giants designated right-hander Mauricio Llovera for assignment today, according to Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. The move clears space on the active roster for right-hander Luke Jackson, who the club has activated from the 15-day IL. San Francisco’s 40-man roster now stands at 39.

Llovera, 27, began his big league career with the Phillies before signing with the Giants on a minor league deal prior to the 2022 season. He was non-tendered last November but re-signed on a fresh minor league deal shortly thereafter. Though Llovera has pitched in the majors during parts of four seasons, he’s thrown just 29 1/3 big league innings with a 6.14 ERA and 6.19 FIP in that time. That being said, Llovera does sport a solid 2.82 ERA in 92 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level throughout his career, and his most recent stint with the Giants was a solid one despite its brevity. In 5 1/3 innings of work with San Francisco this season, Llovera sports a 1.69 ERA with a 23.1% strikeout rate.

Llovera’s departure opens the door for Jackson to return to the Giants’ bullpen. Jackson, 31, spent his entire career with the Braves prior to signing in San Francisco on a two-year deal prior to the 2023 season. While Jackson posted a sensational 1.98 ERA in 63 2/3 innings of work back in 2021, he missed the entire 2022 campaign due to Tommy John surgery and returned to the mound just two months ago. He looked good in 8 1/3 innings of work for the Giants in June, but his return was cut short by a low-back strain that has kept him out for nearly a month. Now that Jackson’s healthy again, he figures to factor into the club’s late-inning mix alongside Camilo Doval, Taylor Rogers, and Tyler Rogers.

Going forward, the Giants will have one week to trade, waive, or release Llovera. Llovera’s been outrighted previously in his career, meaning if the Giants successfully pass him through waivers, Llovera will have the opportunity to reject an outright assignment and test the open market.

Giants Reinstate Ross Stripling, Place Luke Jackson On 15-Day IL

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The Giants announced that right-hander Ross Stripling has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list.  Stripling will take the roster spot left open by Luke Jackson, who is headed to the 15-day IL himself due to a lower back strain.

Stripling has missed over five weeks due to his own back strain, and the injury layoff might effectively serve as a reset to his first season with the Giants.  Over his first 32 1/3 innings of the season, Stripling posted a 7.24 ERA while allowing 10 home runs.  While naturally a small sample size, these struggles are a big step back from the impressive numbers Stripling posted with the Blue Jays in 2022, when the righty delivered a 3.01 ERA over 134 1/3 frames (and with only 12 total homers allowed).

It isn’t what San Francisco was expecting when it signed Stripling to a two-year, $25MM free agent deal in the offseason.  His early struggles led the Giants to pretty quickly move him to the bullpen, though Stripling found himself back in the rotation due to some other injuries within the starting staff.  Between Stripling’s return and Alex Cobb’s expected activation from the IL later this week, the Giants are getting closer to having their full complement of starting pitchers available.

It remains to be seen if Stripling will indeed continue to work as a starter, or if he might return to a straight relief role or a hybrid of the two in his old swingman role.  The Giants’ choice is probably between Stripling and Sean Manaea as the fifth starter, or the team could use both in a piggyback capacity, or perhaps move both pitchers in and out of the rotation as a floating sixth starter to give the other starters some extra rest when necessary.  This is the type of flexibility San Francisco was looking for in signing Stripling in the first place, though naturally the righty will have to get back on track performance-wise.

Jackson left yesterday’s game due to his back injury, and he’ll now unfortunately head back to the IL after already missing the entire 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery.  The Giants only activated him on May 30, and Jackson pitched well in his first nine appearances of 2023, posting a 2.16 ERA, 30.3% strikeout rate, and 6.1% walk rate over 8 1/3 innings.

Giants Designate Matt Beaty For Assignment

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The Giants announced they’ve designated corner bat Matt Beaty for assignment. The move opens a spot on the 40-man roster for reliever Luke Jackson, who is back from the 60-day injured list. San Francisco had already optioned infielder David Villar to create space on the active roster.

Beaty has spent the bulk of his time in the organization with Triple-A Sacramento. Acquired from the Royals on Opening Day, he has appeared with San Francisco just four times. He singled while striking out twice in five at-bats. Beaty has hit well for the River Cats, compiling a .272/.406/.447 batting line over 129 trips to the plate. He’s walking at a quality 10.9% clip and has kept his strikeouts to a lower than average 18.6% rate.

Unfortunately for Beaty, that wasn’t enough to get him a longer look at Oracle Park. He’s appeared in just 24 MLB games dating back to the start of the 2022 season. The left-handed hitter showed some upside in prior looks with the Dodgers, including a .270/.363/.402 slash over 234 plate appearances during the ’21 campaign. He’s a career .249/.319/.405 hitter at the major league level and owns a .286/.388/.415 line through parts of five Triple-A campaigns.

Beaty clearly has offensive ability, but he’s struggled to carve out a consistent defensive role. He’s played all four corner positions at the major league level, the bulk of that time coming at first base and in left field. Those are the only two positions at which he’s started a game this year in Triple-A.

The Giants will have a week to explore trades or try to run Beaty through waivers. He has between three and four years of service time and is in his final option year, which could draw some attention from other clubs. Were he to go unclaimed on waivers, he’d have the right to test minor league free agency by virtue of both his MLB service time and a previous career outright.

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