Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model, developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 arbitration projections are available right here.
Khris Davis enters his third year of arbitration under somewhat familiar conditions—with a .247 average (matching his exact batting average in each season from 2015 through 2017) and at least 40 home runs in his platform season. Coincidences aside, my model sees him getting his biggest raise ever, a $7.6MM bump, good for an $18.1MM salary projection. Last year, he got a $5.5MM raise from his initial $5MM salary in his first year of arbitration.
With career highs of 48 home runs and 123 runs batted in, it is pretty logical that Davis is projected to get his biggest raise yet. On top of that, the same type of performance in the third year of arbitration eligibility is typically associated with a larger raise than it would in the second year of eligibility.
Davis’ case obviously hinges on his power numbers, which is certainly a fortunate skill to possess when it comes to arbitration; power is the skill the arbitration system favors most heavily. Looking for appropriate comparables for Davis is going to require looking for other players who have had significant tallies of the right counting stats, so we should restrict our search to prominent sluggers.
Somewhat surprisingly, in the past decade, only one player has hit 40 home runs going into his third year of arbitration: Todd Frazier, two years ago. Frazier only hit .225 that year and fell just short of 100 RBIs with 98. Davis hit eight more home runs than Frazier did, too. Putting that together, we get an absolute floor of the $3.75MM raise from Frazier’s case.
Even if we soften the home run requirement to 35 and require 100 RBIs, we only get one player in the past five years: Charlie Blackmon, last year. He got a $6.7MM raise for hitting .331 with 37 home runs and 104 runs batted in. There was some debate last year about whether that was enough of a raise, with some rival agents taking shots through the media claiming he should have gotten more. If applied back to Blackmon’s case, the current iteration model does project his 2017 season to support a larger raise of $7.8 million. That also means that the model slightly prefers that season, with its lofty batting average but lesser power stats, to the one just turned in by Davis. All things considered, Blackmon seems like a pretty solid overall comparable, one that either side in the Davis case could argue off of.
It is difficult to come up with other comparables in recent years, but if Davis and the A’s go further back, they might want to look for someone who led the league in home runs like Davis did going into his third year of arbitration. That would be Matt Kemp, who got a $5.05 million raise for his .324/39/126 season in 2011. That is obviously very stale, but it makes it plausible that Davis could get a similar kind of raise with inflation, although his batting average was obviously worse.
With so few plausible comparables, it is difficult to know what Davis could command. In such situations, I would lean towards the model, especially without much evidence that the number was too high or too low. Regardless, in the current era with so many home runs being hit league wide, it will be interesting to see how this affects future cases for guys like Davis who hit so many home runs. Of course, we may not get to see a one-year settlement. The relationship seems to be working for both sides and all involved surely remain mindful of the open market’s devaluation of sluggers, so it would not be surprising to see a multi-year agreement of some kind.
Wouldn’t mind the Astros fronting that bill! Safely assume 50+ HRs at Minute Maid Park.
This is where arbitration gets it totally wrong…
…Remember when Chris Carter hit some 40 homers and signed some paltry 1 year deal at the tail end of the following offseason?! It was a sign of the systemic change in player value cost. You get HRs along with high K rate and usually, as in this case, poor or total lack of fielding. If the projections in this article are even close it is impossible to justify such an obscene salary. $18 mil for what…2.6 fwar?? Help me out here!! :)
Carter was also non-tendered after his 41 HR season. Not sure if that messes with arbitration.
Khrush is a legend to A’s fans. If the Astros want a DH, they should sign Nelson Cruz.
So you think Houston should get a 38 year old Cruz, who saw his numbers drop across the board from 2017 to 2018, over a 31 year old Davis who finished 8th in MVP voting and led the league in HR?
Yes. yes I do.
I see who your mom is. It explains a lot.
My mom was a cheapskate, so she would rather have Cruz than Davis. Cruz’s salary next year will be lower than Davis’s arbitration salary. Also, the Astros won’t have to give up prospects to acquire Cruz.
The Cubs should trade Schwarber & Addison Russell ++ Oscar De La Cruz for Khris Davis & Wyatt Marks
yeah because the A’s CLEARLY have a need for your castoffs
If he were a free agent, Davis would be looking at around a $10M AAV for 2-3 years given his propensity for striking out and his lack of fielding ability likely limiting him to the AL, and that’s probably a ceiling. Poor defensive power hitters just don’t have the same value they used to. For a low-payroll org like Oakland, whatever salary they agree on is going to be too high
Trade him Oakland.
Why is Khris Davis going to get paid and why is he different than Chris Carter, as someone pointed out? How about this. HE IS THE ONLY GUY IN EACH OF THE LAST 3 YEARS TO HIT 40+ HR AND DRIVE IN 100+.. And in 2018, from 2017, he LOWERED his K’s by 20 and raised his HR total by 5. Consistency is what he brings. Davis has NEVER led the league in K’s either. So come up with a better comp than Chris Freaking Carter.
You have to admit that when you say he’s consistent you’re right….he strikes out 4 times for every homer he hits…..I wouldn’t brag about dropping his strikeout rate by 20 as he played a few less games than in 2017 which would have negated that 20 K drop.
That being said, don’t know about the comps but have to admit that while he may gee a legend in the minds of Oakland fans, don’t think he would be a fit on Houston, Boston, NY or even Cleveland other than as a DH. You still have to play defense on those teams and his defense is pretty non-existent.
First of all, get your facts right. In 2017, he had 652 PA. In 2o18, he had 654 PA. He also finished 8th in MVP this year, up from 22nd in 2017. I’m not sure if you watch baseball, but there were more K’s than hits in the MLB this past season, When you lead the league in HR with 48 and K 175 times, that is acceptable in baseball today. Carter was striking out over 200 times in less than 600 PA. By the way, isn’t Oakland in the AL like Cleveland, Houston, Boston and NYY?
How does playing less a few less games negate a strikeout rate?
Who cares how many games he played? The strikeout rate is based on PA. He had 652 in 2017 and 654 in 2018. And he lowered his Ks by 20 and raised his HR by 5. I’m not sure how else to state it?
The numbers they compare him to kemp and Blackmon is no near that. I mean if he say above “.300” you’ll talk about more money. But this guy bats below .250 every year. I mean jd Martinez hit similar totals like Davis but he hit a way better avg than him. They are both defensive liability. Power doesn’t pay like it used to. It’s like the Adam Dunn