Headlines

  • Lucas Giolito Converts Club Option To Mutual Provision
  • Yordan Alvarez To Miss Time With “Pretty Significant” Ankle Sprain
  • Giants To Promote Bryce Eldridge
  • Mets Moving Sean Manaea To The Bullpen
  • Blue Jays To Promote Trey Yesavage For MLB Debut
  • Dodgers Place Will Smith On Injured List
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

Remove Ads
  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Athletics
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2026-27 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors’ Arbitration Projections

By Matt Swartz | October 24, 2011 at 7:51am CDT

Arbitration salaries totaled about $867MM in 2011, and within a few years they will total over a billion dollars across the league, yet the arbitration process is poorly understood and rarely studied to the extent of free agent salaries. With the help of Tim Dierkes, Ben Nicholson-Smith, and other friends of MLBTR, I have fine-tuned a model for predicting arbitration salaries. By incorporating arbitration earnings from the last five years, the model is able to predict salaries using a range of related players. The model has a correlation of roughly .98 with actual salaries, and predicts actual earnings within $170K for more than half of players. 

How good is the model? Well, it works well when it already knows what all the players made and can try to fit the data perfectly. So, I decided to see how well it did if I recreated the model without data from a year and then predicted the salaries from that year using the data from the other years. So I used 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 statistics and salaries to predict 2011 salaries, then 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 salaries and data to predict 2010 salaries, and so on. The result was still a very strong prediction: it was within $320K half the time. Even the most sophisticated model using service time, career wins above replacement, and single-season WAR (and remember that WAR is an actual one-size-fits-all estimate of player value) could only get within $700K half the time. For the average player, even a simplified version of my model cuts the error in half!

The salaries of arbitration eligible players are determined by arbitration panels or by contracts signed under the shadow of potential panel decisions. This represents a lot of players. Only about a third of playing time goes to free agents, and another third of playing time goes to players not yet eligible for arbitration. The other third of playing time — and about 25% of payroll — goes to players whose salaries will be determined by an arbitration panel, unless they reach an agreement first.

In contrast to the free agent market, which now incorporates a modern understanding of baseball, arbitration relies on simple statistics such as pitcher wins and runs batted in. When advanced statistics became available, teams incorporated these into their free agent bids, and stopped paying much attention to old-school statistics. Meanwhile, arbitration panels determine a player's salary based on "comparables," players with similar basic statistics and service time. The salaries that the model produces aren't far from what an educated fan might guess, but the subtle differences are important.

In Tim Dierkes's arbitration series, he has been giving rough estimates of salaries for players based on in-season projections, but we will be releasing the model’s official salary projections for the 2012 season shortly.  The most influential factor for both hitters and pitchers is playing time. More plate appearances and innings pitched make a huge difference. For batters, unsurprisingly, home runs and runs batted in matter most to arbitration panels and our model, while stolen bases and batting average also play important roles. For starting pitchers, wins and ERA are the most important, while relief pitchers get paid mostly based on saves and holds, with a dash of ERA as well. This week, I will post another article on hitters and another article on pitchers explaining the importance of these statistics for certain players in more detail, and I will highlight a couple of unique cases for the 2012 season. Will the model miss by a lot for some players? It absolutely will. But it’s going to hit a lot more than it’s going to miss, and it can provide guidance on players that are harder to understand.

Share 1 Retweet 13 Send via email1

Arbitration Projection Model

Quick Hits: Padres, Orioles, Wilson, Sizemore
Main
Free Agent Stock Watch: Edwin Jackson
View Comments (0)
Post a Comment

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.

Log in Register

    Top Stories

    Lucas Giolito Converts Club Option To Mutual Provision

    Yordan Alvarez To Miss Time With “Pretty Significant” Ankle Sprain

    Giants To Promote Bryce Eldridge

    Mets Moving Sean Manaea To The Bullpen

    Blue Jays To Promote Trey Yesavage For MLB Debut

    Dodgers Place Will Smith On Injured List

    Dipoto: Mariners Interested In Re-Signing Josh Naylor

    Anthony Volpe Playing Through Partial Labrum Tear

    Orioles Promoted Mike Elias Prior To 2025 Season

    Anthony Rizzo Retires

    Cubs Place Kyle Tucker On Injured List

    Blue Jays Place Bo Bichette On Injured List

    Phillies Place Trea Turner, Alec Bohm On Injured List

    Sean Murphy To Undergo Hip Surgery

    Trea Turner To Undergo MRI Due To Hamstring Strain

    Davey Johnson Passes Away

    Mets Option Kodai Senga

    NPB’s Kazuma Okamoto, Tatsuya Imai Expected To Be Posted For MLB Teams

    Shelby Miller Likely Headed For Tommy John Surgery

    Red Sox To Place Roman Anthony On Injured List

    Recent

    Nationals Have Interviewed Red Sox’ AGM Eddie Romero

    Mets Place Reed Garrett On IL With Elbow Sprain, Designate Dom Hamel

    The Opener: Guardians, AL West, Pitchers’ Duel

    Fantasy Baseball Subscriber Chat With Nicklaus Gaut

    MLB Mailbag: Cardinals, Orioles, Astros, Schwarber, Casas

    MLBTR Podcast: The Struggling Mets, Bryce Eldridge, And Trey Yesavage

    MLB Abandons Plans For 2026 London Series

    Sandy Alcantara Is Finding His Old Form

    Royals To Place Ryan Bergert On Injured List With Forearm Tightness

    Rangers To Activate Tyler Mahle On Friday

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Every MLB Trade In July
    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android App Store Google Play

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Remove Ads, Support Our Writers
    • Front Office Originals
    • Front Office Fantasy Baseball
    • MLBTR Podcast
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2026-27 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • RSS/Twitter Feeds By Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

    hide arrows scroll to top

    Register

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version