As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the eighth year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2019. Official service time is in parentheses next to each player. The Super Two cutoff has been announced as 2.134.
Angels (8)
- Tyler Skaggs (4.135) – $3.6MM
- Andrew Heaney (3.150) – $2.8MM
- JC Ramirez (3.139) – $1.9MM
- Luis Garcia (4.006) – $1.7MM
- Cam Bedrosian (3.153) – $1.7MM
- Nick Tropeano (3.068) – $1.6MM
- Hansel Robles (3.119) – $1.4MM
- Tommy La Stella (4.057) – $1.2MM
Astros (10)
- Gerrit Cole (5.111) – $13.1MM
- Roberto Osuna (3.097) – $6.5MM
- Collin McHugh (5.085) – $5.4MM
- Carlos Correa (3.119) – $5.1MM
- Lance McCullers (3.140) – $4.6MM
- Will Harris (5.102) – $3.6MM
- Ryan Pressly (5.039) – $3.1MM
- Brad Peacock (4.165) – $2.9MM
- Jake Marisnick (4.132) – $2.4MM
- Chris Devenski (3.000) – $1.4MM
Athletics (9)
- Khris Davis (5.104) – $18.1MM
- Marcus Semien (4.118) – $6.6MM
- Blake Treinen (4.065) – $5.8MM
- Sean Manaea (2.157) – $3.8MM
- Liam Hendriks (4.164) – $2.1MM – signed for $2.15MM
- Mark Canha (3.092) – $2.1MM
- Ryan Buchter (3.010) – $1.3MM
- Josh Phegley (4.087) – $1.2MM – signed for $1.075MM
- Ryan Dull (2.143) – $900K – signed for $860K
Blue Jays (9)
- Marcus Stroman (4.148) – $7.2MM
- Ken Giles (4.113) – $6.6MM
- Kevin Pillar (4.113) – $5.3MM
- Randal Grichuk (4.033) – $4.8MM
- Aaron Sanchez (4.069) – $3.8MM
- Devon Travis (3.163) – $2.4MM
- Ryan Tepera (3.008) – $1.7MM
- Brandon Drury (2.165) – $1.4MM
- Joe Biagini (2.134) – $1.0MM
Braves (8)
- Kevin Gausman (4.151) – $9.2MM
- Mike Foltynewicz (3.163) – $5.5MM
- Arodys Vizcaino (5.168) – $4.8MM
- Adam Duvall (3.096) – $3.1MM
- Dan Winkler (4.000) – $1.6MM
- Jonny Venters (5.159) – $1.5MM – signed for $2.25MM
- Sam Freeman (4.066) – $1.5MM
- Charlie Culberson (3.084) – $1.4MM
Brewers (10)
- Travis Shaw (3.088) – $5.1MM
- Corey Knebel (3.151) – $4.9MM
- Jimmy Nelson (4.107) – $3.7MM
- Hernan Perez (4.079) – $2.7MM – signed for $2.5MM
- Junior Guerra (2.155) – $2.7MM
- Zach Davies (3.020) – $2.4MM
- Domingo Santana (3.024) – $2.0MM
- Manny Piña (3.046) – $1.8MM
- Erik Kratz (4.156) – $1.7MM – signed for $1.2MM
- Tyler Saladino (3.053) – $1.0MM – signed for $887.5K
Cardinals (4)
- Marcell Ozuna (5.124) – $13.4MM
- Michael Wacha (5.062) – $6.6MM
- Dominic Leone (3.123) – $1.3MM
- Chasen Shreve (3.167) – $1.2MM – signed for $900K
Cubs (7)
- Kris Bryant (3.171) – $12.4MM
- Kyle Hendricks (4.081) – $7.6MM
- Javier Baez (3.089) – $7.1MM
- Addison Russell (3.167) – $4.3MM
- Kyle Schwarber (3.086) – $3.1MM
- Mike Montgomery (3.089) – $3.0MM
- Carl Edwards Jr. (2.134) – $1.4MM
Diamondbacks (11)
- David Peralta (4.120) – $7.7MM
- Robbie Ray (4.007) – $6.1MM
- Taijuan Walker (4.142) – $4.825MM
- Jake Lamb (4.053) – $4.7MM
- Steven Souza Jr. (4.072) – $4.0MM
- Nick Ahmed (4.054) – $3.1MM
- Archie Bradley (3.112) – $2.0MM
- Andrew Chafin (4.020) – $1.8MM
- T.J. McFarland (4.164) – $1.4MM
- Matt Andriese (3.071) – $1.1MM
- John Ryan Murphy (3.043) – $1.1MM
Dodgers (10)
- Joc Pederson (4.028) – $4.3MM
- Enrique Hernandez (4.054) – $3.2MM
- Chris Taylor (3.037) – $3.2MM
- Josh Fields (5.083) – $2.8MM
- Tony Cingrani (5.088) – $2.7MM – signed for $2.65MM
- Corey Seager (3.032) – $2.6MM
- Pedro Baez (4.059) – $1.8MM
- Yimi Garcia (3.149) – $900K
Giants (3)
- Sam Dyson (4.142) – $5.4MM – signed for $5MM
- Joe Panik (4.100) – $4.2MM – signed for $3.8MM
- Will Smith (5.155) – $4.1MM
Indians (7)
- Trevor Bauer (4.158) – $11.6MM
- Francisco Lindor (3.113) – $10.2MM
- Danny Salazar (4.162) – $5.0MM – signed for $4.5MM
- Leonys Martin (5.161) – $2.8MM – signed for $3MM
- Neil Ramirez (4.001) – $1.3MM – signed for $1.0MM
- Cody Anderson (3.017) – $900K
- Nick Goody (2.160) – $700K – signed for $675K
Mariners (1)
- Roenis Elias (3.069) – $1.0MM
Marlins (5)
- J.T. Realmuto (4.038) – $6.1MM
- Dan Straily (4.126) – $4.8MM
- Jose Urena (3.040) – $3.6MM
- Miguel Rojas (4.043) – $2.6MM
- Adam Conley (2.147) – $1.3MM
Mets (7)
- Jacob deGrom (4.139) – $12.9MM
- Noah Syndergaard (3.149) – $5.9MM
- Zack Wheeler (5.098) – $5.3MM
- Michael Conforto (3.043) – $4.4MM
- Travis d’Arnaud (5.044) – $3.7MM
- Steven Matz (3.099) – $3.0MM
- Kevin Plawecki (2.167) – $1.3MM
Nationals (7)
- Anthony Rendon (5.130) – $17.6MM
- Tanner Roark (5.055) – $9.8MM
- Trea Turner (2.135) – $5.3MM
- Michael Taylor (4.010) – $3.2MM
- Kyle Barraclough (3.059) – $1.9MM
- Joe Ross (3.067) – $1.5MM
- Sammy Solis (3.061) – $900K – signed for $850K
Orioles (3)
- Jonathan Villar (4.113) – $4.4MM
- Dylan Bundy (3.026) – $3.0MM
- Mychal Givens (3.069) – $2.0MM
Padres (6)
- Kirby Yates (4.021) – $3.0MM
- Austin Hedges (2.166) – $1.8MM
- Travis Jankowski (2.169) – $1.4MM
- Bryan Mitchell (3.049) – $1.2MM – signed for $900K
- Robbie Erlin (4.078) – $1.1MM
- Greg Garcia (3.083) – $900K – signed for $910K
Phillies (9)
- Cesar Hernandez (4.154) – $8.9MM
- Aaron Nola (3.076) – $6.6MM
- Maikel Franco (3.170) – $5.1MM
- Vince Velasquez (3.086) – $2.6MM
- Hector Neris (3.068) – $2.0MM
- Jose Alvarez (4.035) – $1.7MM
- Jerad Eickhoff (3.045) – $1.7MM
- Aaron Altherr (3.028) – $1.6MM
- Adam Morgan (3.017) – $1.1MM
Pirates (3)
- Corey Dickerson (5.101) – $8.4MM
- Keone Kela (4.000) – $3.2MM
- Michael Feliz (3.026) – $900K – signed for $850K
Rangers (4)
- Nomar Mazara (3.000) – $3.7MM
- Jurickson Profar (4.165) – $3.4MM
- Delino DeShields Jr. (3.116) – $1.9MM
- Alex Claudio (3.114) – $1.3MM
Rays (4)
- Mike Zunino (4.165) – $4.2MM
- Tommy Pham (3.107) – $4.0MM
- Matt Duffy (4.059) – $2.6MM
- Chaz Roe (3.094) – $1.4MM
Red Sox (12)
- Mookie Betts (4.070) – $18.7MM
- Xander Bogaerts (5.042) – $11.9MM
- Jackie Bradley Jr. (4.150) – $7.9MM
- Eduardo Rodriguez (3.130) – $4.8MM
- Brock Holt (5.052) – $3.4MM
- Tyler Thornburg (5.057) – $2.3MM – signed for $1.75MM
- Sandy Leon (4.149) – $2.3MM
- Matt Barnes (3.110) – $1.5MM
- Brandon Workman (4.051) – $1.4MM
- Steven Wright (4.087) – $1.4MM
- Heath Hembree (3.106) – $1.2MM
- Blake Swihart (2.164) – $1.1MM
Reds (5)
- Yasiel Puig (5.102) – $11.3MM
- Scooter Gennett (5.071) – $10.7MM
- Alex Wood (5.123) – $9.0MM
- Jose Peraza (2.141) – $3.6MM
- Anthony Desclafani (4.062) – $2.1MM
- Michael Lorenzen (3.159) – $1.9MM
- Curt Casali (2.151) – $1.3MM
Rockies (8)
- Nolan Arenado (5.155) – $26.1MM
- Trevor Story (3.000) – $6.4MM
- Chad Bettis (4.096) – $3.2MM
- Jon Gray (3.062) – $3.2MM
- Tyler Anderson (3.065) – $2.9MM
- Chris Rusin (4.092) – $1.7MM – signed for $1.6875MM
- Scott Oberg (3.063) – $1.2MM
- Tony Wolters (2.161) – $1.1MM
Royals (3)
- Jesse Hahn (3.067) – $1.7MM – signed for $800K
- Cheslor Cuthbert (3.030) – $1.1MM – signed for $850K
- Brian Flynn (3.086) – $1.0MM – signed for $800K
Tigers (6)
- Nicholas Castellanos (5.029) – $11.3MM
- Shane Greene (4.075) – $4.8MM
- Michael Fulmer (2.157) – $3.0MM
- Matthew Boyd (2.136) – $3.0MM
- Daniel Norris (3.073) -$1.4MM
- Blaine Hardy (3.108) – $1.2MM
Twins (10)
- Jake Odorizzi (5.042) – $9.4MM
- Kyle Gibson (5.039) – $7.9MM
- C.J. Cron (4.097) – $5.2MM – signed for $4.8MM
- Eddie Rosario (3.120) – $5.0MM
- Max Kepler (2.152) – $3.2MM
- Miguel Sano (3.066) – $3.1MM
- Ehire Adrianza (4.131) – $1.8MM – signed for $1.3MM
- Taylor Rogers (2.145) – $1.6MM
- Byron Buxton (2.160) – $1.2MM
- Trevor May (4.012) – $1.1MM
White Sox (5)
- Jose Abreu (5.000) – $16MM
- Alex Colome (4.118) – $7.3MM
- Yolmer Sanchez (3.134) – $4.7MM
- Carlos Rodon (3.168) – $3.7MM
- Leury Garcia (4.025) – $1.9MM – signed for $1.55MM
Yankees (9)
- Didi Gregorius (5.159) – $12.4MM
- Sonny Gray (5.061) – $9.1MM
- Dellin Betances (5.078) – $6.4MM
- Aaron Hicks (5.041) – $6.2MM
- James Paxton (4.151) – $9.0MM
- Luis Severino (2.170) – $5.1MM
- Austin Romine (5.045) – $2.0MM
- Tommy Kahnle (3.131) – $1.5MM
- Greg Bird (3.053) – $1.5MM
Was just thinking about how post-season #’s don’t get factored. If you don’t qualify for post-season; N/A, but should you qualify, and perform; that should be factored into Arbitration. What does everyone think? Holt hitting the first post-season cycle in MLB history-should bump him up to $4M, No? (kidding, ofc)
But also be the other way around… Should you make the playoff roster, and can’t come through when it counts, should count against your Arb. salary. What does everyone think about the post-season performance, helping, — or hurting– Arb. salary. Was kinda mad Giles won Arb case last year, even though he did everything in his power to try sabotage Astros in the playoffs Lol. What do you guys think; should post-season performance be a factor in Arbitration salary (assuming youmakes it)
He’ll be Toronto’s problem now.
Maybe he’ll perform better in low-pressure setting.
On another note, sorry for saying “what do you guys think” x3 times but really curious if you think someone whom can’t perform when it counts, –or vice versa- should factor into deciding Arb. salary case- Still can’t believe Giles won his Arb case against Astros, after he wet the bed in the playoffs
I down-voted my first post. (Again apologize for being redundant, but this has been burning a hole in my mind…) I get it, post-season is non-salaried work, but should you really reward players who can’t step up when it counts or vice-versa? post-season performance should be one factor looked at in Arb salary… Wouldn’t be the only factor… but a factor nonetheless; to reward or penalize and if you miss the playoffs, it would be N/A
You sir are receiving post of the year! Keep up the strong work.
More like donkey post of the year.. I almost never talk about votes.. (though many people have lately) Just couldn’t think of a better way to say sorry for that redundant first comment.
As for the autistic part, your post seems very personal. It’s obvious your issues with me, lie deeper than anything posted here. I’m certainly not the only one who talks about them, and keep talking about votes to a minimum. (Unless they’re self-depreciating)
I don’t think it’s really fair to punish or reward guys for such small sample sizes. A player hot in October is on a bigger stage, but is still the same as a player hot in September or April.
Think doing well in the post season may help some with certain GM’s during FA, but don’t think it means anything really during arbitration.
a single post season has really gotten some goat FA contracts tho.. David freese and then there is sandoval..
Thats bad news for Severino’s arb case. He’d make, what? 500K? Maybe 628k to match his 6.28 post season ERA?
Shouldn’t they be discounted because of Lance Lynn? Walks Mookie 4 pitches (Congrats on 1st post-season RBI) then bases-clearing hit.
$2.5M. (But he got the rest of the playoffs to redeem himself, assuming there’s a rest of the playoffs haha)
There is no redemption from 17ER in 23 playoff innings over 6 starts. He is what he is. Price 2.0
You should be more worried about your infield kids having 4 hits between them than a leadoff hitter having rbi or not.
Every Boston Globe article after game-2 mentioned his lack of RBI.
“MVP candidate Mookie Betts has had two unproductive games (1 for 7) and has yet to drive in a run in nine postseason games. Yes, it’s only two games, but in a five-game series, two games is like an eternity.”
Good for Mookie, making them look foolish.
bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/10/06/red-sox-h…
To tell you the truth, RBI added insult to injury but 100% right regarding infield kids having 4 hits. Would like to add managing: Bringing in Lynn (?) to (literally) fall on his @**, give up 3ER charged to Sevy, then bringin Green, is reverse-managing. Would’ve left Lynn in to get shelled, save Green for today. Holder threw 38 pitches in blow out, but happy about that since he got shelled 7ER 0.0IP game against Bos this year.
Price: 7.95 ERA (53 ER /60 IP) vs NYY, 12 GS. (Since signing with Boston)
Sevy: 4.00 ERA (32 ER/ 70 IP) vs. BOS, 13 GS.
Aw shoot, you were talking playoffs….
twitter.com/therealairsegar/status/104950086479956…
Sevy is still young. Price is a 33. y.o. vet. You hope these are growing pains, but could be my homer showing. May the best team win; lost hope after falling behind to Cle 0-2.. last year.., but you could make an argument, tougher come back, 2-1 against this Bos team.
Well, this certainly didn’t age well…
I think giving artificial importance to a small sample size who’s tangible value is nothing close to what people wish is was because of purely emotional reasons is just adding pointless confusion to a system that’s already badly confused
Definitely shouldn’t count. They judge off of your regular season stats. They need to compare objectively, not based on emotions of the postseason because not every player gets to play in the playoffs. It wouldn’t be fair because it could hurt the player or help them, better to leave it be. Also, it’s more likely to hurt them because they’re facing the best teams and a lot of them have great hitters and great pitchers, so it’s harder to better your numbers as either a position player or pitcher.
Thanks, enjoyed everyone’s responses, but yours was the best kevnames42
I could’ve asked this question in a more succinct manner, but I didnt want to wait too long cuz it’s been bugging me for a while. In any case, your reaponse totally convinced me and totally made the ridicule worth it lol.
Don’t believe this hack, I always talk about “votes”. Only time mention “votes” when responding to pple that try to use it as a defense, because they’re too lazy formulate a defense on their own, and in a self-depricating manner like post above. Honestly believe many of them are skewed lol…
I realize it’s probably too late to worry about this now, but for future years… can we get the difference over current salary in paranthesis after the number?
ie: if John Doe got $4 mil in 2018 and your model predicts 9 mil next year, then John Doe – $9 MM (+$5).
I know current salaries are easier to find, but it would really help put the salaries into context, by immediately providing the difference between current salaries and future ones.
Great idea
I was thinking the same thing
Justim Bour, Pedro Florimon, Aaron Altherr and Luis Garcia probably gettin nontendered
Is Arenado some kind of record?
You don’t think they can find a taker on Bour? I see that he was atrocious in Philly last year but he was still in the midst of a good season in Miami before the trade. I think I’d also take a shot on Altherr if i had an opening in the outfield. I really thought last year was going to be a springboard season for him to build off of.
There’s no market for mediocre 1b/DH types. Every team has about 2 guys in the minors who can fill that role for the league minimum
Bour hasn’t really been mediocre until his time in Philly though. I guess I could see him fitting in the Chris Carter mould though.
Justin bour has more talent than your average minor league 1B but for ~5.5 million dollars he won’t have any trade value. He may sign somewhere on a contract not too far off from that but if the Phillies don’t have a roster spot there’s no use in offering arb. Altherr for a 1.5MM is a different story. I’d probably take a chance on him again.
It’s not really a question of how much Justin Bour is worth? The Phillies don’t have a spot for him. He never fit on that team. They have two guys who should be playing first already. If they manage to move Santana then they could ask themselves that question but as it stands you definitely don’t give Bour 5.5MM to sit on your bench. Lo-Mo only got 5.5 guaranteed coming off a much better season. Eventually the arb process will have to catch up to the way power hitters are truly valued or you’ll start seeing these guys being non tendered left and right.
And Chris Carter got non-tendered after a better season. There’s just no real trade market for 1bs who aren’t top flight bats. You can get anybody who hits and drop them at 1b and not really suffer for it
Not trying to make it sound like an indictment of bour specifically, but it’s just the reality of his position.
Ay its Petrie and Brixton. Top prospect board reunion
I don’t see why you wouldn’t tender him tbh. He’s a good enough player to attempt to find a taker. If you can’t find a taker a QO is not guaranteed. So what you pay the 30 day pro rated portion at the most? Seems more reward than risk.
They gave up next to nothing to get Bour and had value has done nothing but drop since. It’s as much of a respect thing for Bour as it is for the Phillies not needing him or his salary. You’d be signing him to trade him to
receive nothing but cash relief for cash you didn’t have to offer him. his arb salary is almost identical to Miguel gonzalez’ Whom the orioles released after ST in 2016. They paid him a million dollars for that ST……Much easier for team and player to walk away now.
Josh Donaldson got 23m in a contract, not arbitration so it’d beat last year’s top salary by a few mil.
Teams/players should just ask Matt what’s fair.
The man is always spot on!
Hope the Indians re-due Jose Ramirez contract. Pretty Criminal he’s gonna be making only 2 mil with no arb. Kipnis’ Money should go to Lindor and Jose.
Now why would they wanna do that?
The Indians wouldn’t object…….
Kipnis has guaranteed money.
Almost positive the commentor is saying that kipnis’ Money should be going to Ramirez instead. Don’t think he was unaware that kipnis has a guaranteed deal.
Giants should trade or non tender everyone on that list not named Will Smith.
Duvall is almost certainly a non tender
Yep. Nontendering Sam Freeman wouldn’t surprise me, either.
I came back to read reply’s to your post, but it was gone. That’s a bummer man!
I wouldn’t think so. I know the return wasnt that big for the reds, but still
9 million for Alex Wood seems a little steep
No doubt both those guys are non tender … but 9 mil for woods seems reasonable enough
9 mil for wood only seems steep when you’re the LAD and you have 7-8 quality major league starters in the big leagues. He’s a solid mid rotation arm on most clubs.
5 million for Danny Salazar? Dumb.
Considering guys coming off TJ are signing 2/10MM deals it doesn’t seem so bad. 1/5 seems like a pretty good risk/reward ratio.
Problem is the pattern he is on. Only made 25 starts in 2016 and due to an injury and what I guess you would describe as a mental issue (believed he was hurt again but wasn’t and had trouble after that). In 2017 only made 19 starts due to multiple injuries and missed all of 2018 due to another surgery and haven’t heard anything really on his rehab. For a team with a very tight budget it may not be worth it.
Excellent been waiting for this since the end of the regular season.
Wow, I don’t know if the A’s have EVER paid anyone $18MM/year. Honestly, what the A’s do with Davis will be one of the most interesting off-season watches in baseball. A’s are doing a lot of talking and cosmetic action to get the fanbase re-engaged in the team and excited about the prospect of a new ballpark in 2023.
A’s President Dave Kaval is a very public and rah-rah kinda guy. He’s hard not to like.
However, he doesn’t write the checks. The Fisher Family (one of the top 25 richest families in the USA) does, and their history of dusting off the checkbook on behalf of the team is lacking (I’m being charitable).
Not extending Khris Davis would be (IMHO) a colossal PR nightmare for a team finally starting to chip away at the blowback from the Donaldson and Cespedes trades (yes, fans STILL go on about these trades). They’d better extend him now….
That depends on the price. There’s a guy with almost the same name in Baltimore as a prime example of how the tables can turn. Khris Davis has 1 skill that he does really really well. But that’s really the only part of his game you like. If that dips and the bat speed slows down just a bit you could have an albatross. If I were extending him it certainly wouldn’t be a long one.
Krush Davis is a better hitter than Chris Davis. The A’s can easily pay Davis arbitration money since they only have 1 long term contract on the whole team. My guess is they offer him a 4/70 contract. if he takes it good if he doesn’t just find another DH.
Chris Davis of the Orioles was ruined by the shift.
Khris Davis of the A’s is right handed, therefore he’ll never get tortured by the shift.
His spray chart is also insane. I always laugh when teams shift him, because honestly the only way you shift him is by putting your entire team in the outfield.
Chris Davis also had a long history of inconsistency and more than a few terrible years the Orioles overlooked
Khris Davis may be one dimensional as a player, but it’s a dimension he’s at least fairly consistent with.
Khris is a safer extension candidate than Chris ever was, so as long as the A’s don’t go nuts, they can spend the money on worse players… They know they can make it work, after all
The highest single-season salary I could find the A’s paying anyone was Matt Holliday’s $13.5MM. Scott Kazmir got $13MM in the second season of his two-year deal, as well.
That said, the A’s tried to sign Edwin Encarnacion for two years and a total of $50MM before he signed with Cleveland. I’m sure they’re comfortable with Davis at 18 if an extension doesn’t come together, though I do think they’ll push to get a multi-year deal worked out.
So Cole will get the same pay raise as deGrom (~+6MM)? Sounds weird…
Cole is in his final season of arbitration. Degrom has 1 left to go. He’ll be getting a raise on 13MM next year instead of the raise Cole got off a 6.75MM salary this year.
In the back of my mind I was thinking Nolen Arenado might be a great trade target for the Cardinals. Until…….I saw what he was making.
You know how much Jedd gyorko is making? Doesn’t look so bad in that case.
Will Harris has an unmentioned team option which I guess won’t get exercised since he hasn’t been great lately.
Good point, thanks.
Will Harris has a club option of $5.5 MM. They will probably decline it making him a free agent.