The Dodgers are “definitely” issuing a $17.9MM qualifying offer to catcher Yasmani Grandal before today’s deadline to do so, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The team could also issue a QO to left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, though there’s still an internal debate whether to do so or simply let Ryu hit free agency without the potential for draft pick compensation.
The decision to issue Grandal a QO at that rate may come as a surprise for some, particularly in the wake of an ugly postseason effort that was underscored by uncharacteristic defensive miscues. But Grandal was one of the game’s most productive catchers with the bat this season, has long rated as an elite pitch framer (arguably the best and most consistent in baseball) and is consistently average or better in terms of controlling the running game. The switch-hitter will turn 30 next month and, even in spite of that ugly postseason showing, should have little trouble securing at least a three-year contract in an offseason where several contenders are in clear need of upgrades behind the plate.
It’d be a surprise to see Grandal accept the QO, though even if he does so, the Dodgers would likely be pleased to retain him on a one-year deal after he hit .241/.349/.466 with 24 home runs in 2018. Only Salvador Perez hit more home runs than Grandal among big league catchers, and only Wilson Ramos and J.T. Realmuto turned in a better all-around offensive performance when adjusting for league and park (by measure of wRC+). By that measure, the average catcher was 16 percent worse than a league-average hitter; Grandal, conversely, was 25 percent better than a league-average hitter.
That gap in production should lead to considerable interest on the open market. The Nationals, Rockies, Red Sox, Astros, Phillies, Braves, Brewers, Mets, Angels, Twins and Dodgers themselves are among the teams who could use help behind the plate next year.
As for Ryu, the decision likely boils down to the Dodgers’ tolerance for risk. The lefty was excellent when healthy this season, pitching to a masterful 1.97 ERA with 9.7 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 in 82 1/3 innings. Ryu, however, missed three months with a significant groin tear and has made just 40 starts over the past four seasons combined. While his performance on a per-inning basis is undoubtedly worth that level of pay in today’s baseball climate, the Dodgers would face the risk that Ryu would accept the QO given concerns other teams would have about surrendering draft compensation and paying a premium for a pitcher with such pronounced durability issues.
He better accept it, the market is full of catching options this year.
It may be full of options, but he’s the best available option (aside from a trade for Realmuto, though that’ll obviously come with a borderline exorbitant prospect cost).
He can guarantee himself way more. Only reason to maybe take this is the high AAV
And that he can never be issued another one.
Full of catcher options? You act as though they’re actually 30 starting caliber catchers in the league… it’s the most shallow position in the sport by far and the difference from a Grandal to other replacement level guys is huge. QO is a no brainer and him declining is a no brainer.
It is shallow and thus is not wise to invest large amounts of money into the position especially as his defense or lack there if was exposed in the postseason.
.241 isn’t exactly off the chart
Ummm, there are better numbers than batting average, you know? Like, any of them.
The dodgers think the same way as you, that’s why they won so many championships the last few years.
Dave Kingman hit 40 plus Homers.. many times, so was he off the chart?
Starbucks relax and go to decaf. We can’t play in a league where we drive in runs with bases loaded walks and hit batsmen.
No, neither did the anti-analytics teams like the O’s and Rangers and Mets and Reds.
Ignorant comment. The Rangers were one of the first teams to adopt analytics, that’s why their front office has been raided so many times. There is a world that exists outside of New York- try learning about it sometime
Like catchers, slugging 3B are a rare commodity! That said, I’d prefer to take the draft pick! Let’s move on! 24 HR are great, but watching him play the last 3 season had been a major disappointment especially when watching him hit with runners in scoring position! Goodbye!
Still waiting for the headline “dodgers to fire dave roberts”
Get comfortable, because it’ll be a few years.
Not happening.
So they could replace him with whom? Get real.
Mike Scosia
They won’t fire him because the FO knows he will do whatever they tell him to do.
We all are.
Dave Roberts may be Marv Levy Jr.
I hope Grandal doesn’t accept, he should move to a DH position or even 1st base because he’s a disaster behind the plate
He isn’t good enough of a hitter to be a 1B/DH. His whole value is the bat for the catcher position. He just needs to stop dipping his glove in butter and he’ll be ok
Grandal is a disaster behind the plate? Besides the postseason, the guy has been one of the best.
Disaster behind the plate, gotta love the guys who only watch the playoffs and make player evaluations on the smallest of samples.
as dumb as the people who label guys a playoff chokers.
Watched him for many seasons. He has hands of concrete.
When it comes down to it, the postseason is all that matters. Maybe he couldn’t handle the high intense situations of postseason. There are others in the past that couldn’t.
So you admit you only watch the playoffs. Typical. Try familiarizing yourself with the term “sample size”
No unfortunately I watch more baseball than I should, the point is that postseason performance is all that really matters, everything else is irrelevant
Yes 6th in defensive WAR as a catcher and 2nd in defensive runs saved per fangraphs. Also, top 5 in Pitch framing per baseballprospectus. He should absolutely never catch again. He just had a bad couple of games in the post-season, still better than most catchers out there.
We know he has value, but it comes down to price and the amount of money needed to sign him, large contracts at catcher normally dont work out.
Disaster behind the plate? Get some eyes and watch some games outside of the world series. He may be average at holding runners (average isn’t a disaster), but his pitch framing is among the best in baseball.
Kinda hard to be a good pitch framer if you can’t actually catch the ball.
If the only games you watched were the World Series you really don’t deserve to have an opinion
He can’t catch as a catcher. I would think 1st base is the second worst position for him considering his hands of stone.
One of the most ignorant posts I have seen here.
Make-believe agent; would advise him to reject; enter market as the best available Catcher. (By far)
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1899425
I agree. (By Near)
Hit 24 homers, nearly .350 OBP. Top-notch defense. Not a bad catcher to open the vault on.
“Top-notch”…. Spoken like a guy that looks at stats, but fails to actually watch.
As a Dodger fan, this QO terrifies me because there is a slight chance he might accept. I cant take the mental lapses, missed balls, and extra wear on the pitching any more…..
Agree 100% Jim.
At least I know that Mets won’t sign him now. He’s not worth losing a draft pick for. Welcome to the New York Mets Wilson Ramos. Btw, Grandal will absolutely accept this offer.
This is his one chance to get a multi-year big money contract. He’ll be the best catcher on the market and there are several contenders that need an upgrade. Your “absolutely” is not very likely.
DC may be fighting for Wilson to come back.
DC may want him back but they will not offer him a QO. The Mets have needed a Catcher ever since Paul Lo Duca left. The Mets will ABSOLUTELY make Ramos the best offer, especially when they don’t have to surrender draft picks. Brodie Van Wagenen made it clear, the Mets were going to be proactive. This would be a good start. I would give Ramos a 3yr, $30 million contract.
Is that Michael Cuddyer waving?
I really want the braves to sign him. He grades better than Flowers, at framing. So it would give the braves two of the games best framers. Also gives them a needed power threat.
I like it! Year to Year contract or a Draft Pick; win-win…
Reject it. Looking at the struggle after all star, he is in the peak of career. Go get a long term contract as a best catcher available in the market
Dodger fans, you would looove to see Grandal back. He is a great player who is very underrated. Even as a yankees fan, I would like to see Grandal back in LA. He would help them make the playoffs once again.
Or is that you look forward to playing the Dodgers in next year’s World Series if the Dodgers are still hamstrung by having one Dodger who can’t hit and another one who can’t catch? 🙂
Grandal WILL get a multi year contract from someone, and the Dodgers would be fools not to tender a Q.O. If Grandal’s agent even mentions the possibility of accepting said Q.O., Yasmani should immediately fire him. Teams no longer forfeit their first round pick for signing players Grandal’s caliber, so he will find work. LA will likely look for a veteran catcher for one year (to pair with Austin Barnes) to make do until 2020 when one of their catching prospects is ready to take over on an every day basis.
Teams no longer forfeit a first rounder for Grandal? If he goes for under 50. If he signs a 3/33 MM deal the odds are in his favor that the QO would’ve been the better choice. It’s a slippery slope with a catcher soon to be on the wrong side of 30 though.
I’m assuming you are basing the comment that he is a disaster behind the plate on his PO performance? Undoubtedly he was terrible this year both defensively and offensively in the POs. Even last year he was replaced by Barnes in the PO, which was more because Barnes was on fire and less that Grandal was terrible, but he was pretty terrible. All that being said, Grandal has consistently been one of the best defensive catchers, in terms of pitch framing, game-calling, and base stealing. His blocking (WP and PB) isn’t great, but it’s certainly not terrible. He just seems to be a head-case in the PO. He’s got a case of the PO yips.
Which is why it is time for him to go elsewhere.
Man, I would hate if I was judged on my job performance based on a two-week sample size. He had a bad couple weeks. That doesn’t mean he’s a bad player. In Babe Ruth’s second World Series (as a hitter) he batted 118/ 250/176 – and the Yankees lost. If the internet existed in 1922 can you imagine the screams about him being a “bum” and “overrated”.” ?
Let me ask you this. Does having a couple hot streaks a year make him an exceptionally good player? Aside from his postseason implosion, Yasmani has dropped so damn many throws at the plate where he has to tag the runner. He has a real hard time doing that fundamental chore.
I hope he goes elsewhere. Looking forward to Smith in Winter.
Can you show me a statistic that shows what you said? I’m serious; I know people’s eyes deceive them. What you describe (Grandal dropping so many throws at the plate) would qualify as an error in most instances, right? Grandal isn’t credited with a particularly large number of errors (6 in 2018, and from the game logs only one of them was charged on a drop throw from the outfield).
Most throws that come to a catcher come on a bounce and scorers notoriously give the error to the thrower when the ball hits the ground. Our eyes are not deceived, Grandal is fundamentally weak and anyone with prolonged exposure to his performances comes to realize this.
Bottom line, when you need him to step-up with a big defensive play he fails far more than he succeeds. And worse than that, when you just need him to block that curve in the dirt for strike three, or even just get his glove on a fastball on the inside corner…. time and again the pitcher sees Grandal’s back as he runs to the backstop for another that got by…….
There isn’t a stat for drop throws. There’s only instances of me screaming at my TV after staying up all game long to watch the opposing runner score when all Grandal had to do was catch the ball and tag.
How would you stat that?
I guess my eyes must deceive me since I can’t place it in a spreadsheet. Anyway, I’m no real factor in whether Yasmani plays with the Dodgers next year or not. I’m just a guy with an interest in the sport.
Sorry to disappoint you.
Why? He’s done.
I hope to see more of Farmer this next season behind the plate, or at least any prospects move up the proverbial minor league ladder.
Seems pretty obvious that Dodgers do not have any faith in Farmer as a ML catcher.
I’m not even sure Farmer makes it through the roster crunch. If he’s not a catcher, there are better R5 eligible options in the system. He barely caught any innings at the mlb level and really saw his C appearances in the minors curtailed. Actually after thinking it out, I’m pretty sure Farmer won’t make it through the roster crunch.
Agree 100%. Farmer seems likely to be included in some trade package before ST, perhaps for another catcher to replace Grandal — Cervelli from Pirates for one year?
Dodgers would love to have Grandal accept QO (unlikely) to give team one more year to groom Smith and Ruiz as the future tandem. If no agreement is reached with Kershaw then Ryu likely gets a QO as well.
hey socal! Cheaper options than to give Grandal a ransome so he can trash the pitching staff with his “mis-adventures’…….. Heck, they could probably get AJ Ellis back and make Kersh all warm and tingly.
They need to trade Barnes. I hear that one of the catching prospect they have could be in the bigs in 2019 season. They need bullpen help and they need to figure their outfielder delima out. They either play verdugo this coming up season or trade him. I’m tried of seeing him not do so hot and the dodgers just keep him and do nothing with him. Also ALEX WOOD needs to go.
Barnes a top rated defensive catcher stays this season unless Grandal returns
Grandall is the worst defensive catcher in MLB. By far.
Ummm, this is kind of one of the most absurd thing I’ve ever read here, which is saying something. There is not any single stat you could possibly find – heck, even old-school numbers like FLD% or errors or whatever, that would remotely corroborate what you wrote.
We have some good young catchers in the minors but I’m not sure they are ready. Unless management is sure they are ready one more year of Grandal would bridge that gap without having to sign Ramos or someone else for 3-4 years. I hope he accepts the QO.
Grandal just received a $10-mil raise and more than doubled his salary. Congrats to him.
They’re cautious about giving Ryu a QO but we’re fine with giving Brett Anderson one???
He will get a multi year offer from someone. Good call by predicting the Nationals. They would love to have him, they would give him a multi year deal and he would be great for that pitching staff.
Let him walk. He frames well but make a play for J.T.
Please!!!!! let him go, he doesnt help when it really counts. Lets get the other nice catcher from the Marlins. We have to look into the future and if the institution wants to win they have to start playing by moving the right pieces.