The Dodgers have extended a qualifying offer to left-handed starter Hyun-Jin Ryu, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). He’ll have ten days to decide whether to accept the one-year, $17.9MM offer.
While all of the other qualifying offer recipients were fairly straightforward cases, it was hardly clear that Ryu would receive one. But the Los Angeles organization has shown time and again that it is not afraid of risking money on talented pitchers who come with health questions, so they have decided to stake a hefty pile of cash on a player they originally signed out of Korea six seasons ago.
Since coming to Los Angeles, Ryu has been steadily excellent — when healthy. He owns a career 3.20 ERA in the majors, but hasn’t yet cracked 600 total innings because of significant shoulder and elbow surgeries along with a groin tear. In the 2018 campaign, Ryu recorded 82 1/3 frames of 1.97 ERA ball, with an appealing mix of 89 strikeouts and just 15 walks backing the results.
Given the health history, the 31-year-old Ryu may well consider taking the offer. If not, he’ll enter the free-agent market in search of a contract that likely won’t pay him quite at that annual rate, but could certainly included much more total guaranteed money. Of course, his market would be harmed to some extent by the fact that a signing team would need to surrender draft compensation to add him.
Ultimately, the Dodgers will end the day having issued qualifying offers to two players: Ryu and Yasmani Grandal. The club unquestionably would have had another in Clayton Kershaw, but locked him up with a new deal before the deadline for him to exercise an opt-out clause.
Wasn’t Morton better? Morton was not issued, but Ryu was?
At 82.1 Innings? And history of injury, Ryu accepts.
This is truly a head scratcher, but watch a few will try to justify it.
Why is it a head scratcher? Ryu was their best pitcher at home.
Because he hasn’t been able to pitch a full season in 5 years…
Has any Dodger starter? Thats how its been.
Player A
3.13 ERA and 201/64 K/BB ratio over 167 Innings in 30 starts. Turns 35 in November.
Player B
1.97 ERA and 89/15 K/BB ratio in 82.1 IP. History of significant shoulder + elbow injury. Turns 32 in March.
Player A was NOT issued a QO. Player B was.
Here’s one way: If one WAR is about $10 million, and Ryu was 2.6 WAR last season, the team expecting another season just like it feels he’s worth about $26 million.
That team just offered him $17.9 million.
Two different situations with two different teams having different analysis in their own specific circumstances. One doesn’t impact the other.
The Dodgers have deeper pockets than the Astros. If Morton was in LA he’d probably get the qualifying offer, and if Ryu was in Houston he’d probably be an unrestricted free agent
I was thinking the same
It should take him no less than five minutes to accept it.
If he believes in himself then he will take the QO. Given his injury history and the draft pick attachment it may be difficult to get a better deal even if signed for multiple years. If he pitches 150 above average innings in 2019 then he should be better able to sign a more significant contract next off season.
No team will offer Ryu $17.9/year, for multiple years. He would be lucky to get 3/$36MM from a team due to his injury history. Especially now that there is draft pick compensation to consider.
He should take it
I’d rather bet on Ryu for $17.9M than Kimbrel.
Xabial, Astros were afraid Morton would take it! He keeps mentioning retirement unless he can play close to home on east coast. His 2 or 3 year contract wouldn’t have been much over that but he doesn’t want to play that long. But HEY
a big check for one year? Why not. He likes Houston. Astros didn’t want to risk it.
I like Ryu but with his injury issues I’m not sure this is smart by the Dodgers paying that much for a guy who is a number 4 or 5 starter this upcoming season behind Buehler, Kershaw, Hill and possibly even Urias. But I guess we will see. I’d like the Dodgers to go out and sign a starter but who knows if they will but if they do they will have a crowded rotation if this guy accepts which I guess isn’t a bad thing and would be even better if they went to a 6 man rotation but this is all what ifs. I guess we wait and see. Again, I like Ryu but that is a lot of money.
One there’s no such thing as a bad one year contract. The money is basically a wash as they’ll churn it through the roster crunch. Don’t expect Buehler to climb to 200 IP, expect some rest there. Same applies to Urias. The bottom line is Ryu was never going to get extended innings after his true first full year after injury. Plus the injury history isn’t that great. They knew when he sign he had a tear in the labrum. It got fixed and he tore a groin, not much you can do there tbh. He like Grandal at this moment is basically a bridge. The SP issue to me was never really an issue. I also don’t see it as a significant need to address in the offseason. They basically have an abundance of rotation pieces with an ability to address that need should it arise at the TDL. The money isn’t really that much of significance relative to the market and where they stand.
Would love to Ryu on the A’s along with Luzardo and Puk. Triple lefty’s.
Fans are upset bc Dodgers didn’t win the WS, but Dodgers are rewarding Ryu, Kershaw, Roberts and Grandal for Dodgers to get there. Just like Turner and Jansen’s case, some will be good, and others will be bad. But that’s a nature of the FA market.
I don’t see them rewarding Grandal. I see them hindering his market in exchange for a draft pick. I wouldn’t think he would accept, being a catcher
This is a no brained for him. The lack of health is another thing that scares me. He had good numbers when he was healthy.
It’s a no-brainer from LA’s standpoint. Whether the QO this year was $5mil or $25mil that wasn’t a concern for the FO – they’ve shown with this staff that money isnt an issue and they’re willing to spend.
So if you sorta gloss over the actual figure, then it just boils down to (hopefully) re-signing a guy who gave them 1.97 on the hill (and even lower at home). If he doesn’t repeat that same performance or if he inevitably gets injured again it’s not the end of the world – just a 1 year deal, obviously no salary cap to be concerned with, and they’ll likely stack 6-7 starters again, like has been their recent history.
I “get” that the concern is that price versus his history but for a FO like LA has the price aspect becomes a moot point. It’s just all about giving a guy a year to see if he can keep pitching well without any commitment. If the QO was, say, $2mil then it would be an absolute no brainer. And to this FO the QO just may as well be $2mil they way they’re willing to spend
Mainly agree, but the poorly kept secret of this FO is they really like short term contacts, and they are prepared to pay somewhat above market value to get them. Worst case scenario, Ryu wants more security and they get the comp pick.