Let’s catch up on a few market notes from around the game after a busy day on the arbitration front …
- The Angels are evidently a team to watch on Giants southpaws Will Smith and Tony Watson, as Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports that the teams “have been in constant contact this winter” regarding both pitchers (subscription link). It’s not surprising to see the Halos chasing lefties, as their current staff is quite thin in that area. Whether or not the club will offer up enough to entice the Giants remains to be seen. The San Francisco org is surely willing to deal either or both of these veteran relievers, each of whom is coming off of a strong season with an appealing contract situation, but there figures to be ample interest from other teams as well. With many of the best free agent relievers already off the board, now may be the time for new Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi to market his southpaws in earnest.
- The Reds are still looking to add another starter, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. He ticks through some possibilities, though it’s not clear that any particular pitcher is especially likely at this point. Among the potential targets, the Reds are still pursuing Yankees starter Sonny Gray, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). While the New York club made clear at the outset of the winter that Gray was on the block, recent indications are that there’s some consideration of hanging on to him. If nothing else, the Yanks are still trying to get value back. Heyman says that GM Brian Cashman is asking for more than one pitching prospect in return. While it’s doubtful he expects to land a premium arm, the veteran exec is said to be seeking “multiple … upper level guys with a chance.”
- Likewise, the White Sox are still interested in filling out their rotation, GM Rick Hahn told reporters including Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com (Twitter link). While the veteran exec emphasized that the organization still sees Manny Banuelos and Dylan Covey as possibilities, he indicated that depth remains a consideration. Needless to say, neither of those pitchers has established himself as a reliable MLB starter to this point, so it’s unsurprising to hear that the South Siders are still flipping through some external targets.
- Veteran first baseman Adrian Gonzalez is readying for a showcase in the coming days, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports on Twitter. He’s said to be in “excellent shape,” though teams will surely remain a bit skeptical after two consecutive unproductive campaigns. The 36-year-old Gonzalez was long one of the game’s most respected hitters, of course, but it’s tough to imagine him securing a MLB roster spot on the open market at this stage. Still, there should be some teams with bench bat needs that would be glad to give Gonzalez a shot to show what he’s got left in camp.
Other than Adell (who will definitely not be traded for Smith/Watson) I don’t see any notable outfield prospects in the Angels system that the giants would be interested in. I just don’t see a fit here, really.
Brandon Marsh is their top rated OF prospect (other than Adell). Going to be 21, performed well in A ball, really athletic. Not sure the Angels would even do that deal.
Ha, OF is probably the biggest strength in the Angels system. You have Marsh/Adams/JamJones (2B/OF) as guys who in no way, shape, or form should be traded for Watson and/or Smith. Then there’s Jared Walsh/Brennon Lund/Michael Hermosillo who would make a semblance of sense from the LAA side. Lastly we have a couple of Bahamians in D’Shawn Knowles and Trent Deveaux, who are both a ways off but are also super interesting athletes. I’d hate to give up either at this point, especially for relief pitchers
A valuable contribution to the topic. Are you sure you are on the right site?
While your knowledge of Angels prospects is fine, you are WAY off in thinking any of them are even remotely “untouchable”. The Angels are in perma-contend mode as long as Trout+Ohtani are in the fold, and you dont win MLB games with prospects.
Look at the Hand+Cimber for Mejia trade. I can see Smith+Watson traded for one really good prospect in that style. Marsh fits, Adell does too – altho Adell can get more – MadBum+Smith for Adell+ works for both sides.
It’s extremely shortsighted for the Halos to mortgage the future in Trouts final 2 years of team control. It makes much more sense to instead build a pipeline of talent that should be ready to contribute during his next contract period. That way we are in a good spot regardless of whether he sticks around or leaves town. If he re-signs we have cheap young players filling out the major league roster and/or trade chips for more immediate upgrades. If he leaves we still have:
1) a bunch of $$$ to spend
2) a terrific building block (Ohtani)
3) those same young/cheap players to help mitigate the loss of Trouty’s production
I love the guy but this concept of keeping Trout via buying a team in 2 years is nonsense. If he wants to stay an Angel we’d love to keep him ($$ be damned) but creating a short-term “winner” at the expense of the organizations long term health is foolery.
The Angels will not trade Adell but most other guys should be available for quality bullpen guys like Watson and Smith. I do agree the prospect hugging has gotten a little out of control. The Angels have one truly elite prospect in Adell he is there only untouchable.
I find it hilarious that fans keep wanting players for their teams, but aren’t willing to give up anything. You have to give to get, people.
‘64 ford;
Apparently you’ve never been in a bad marriage.
My ex wife taught me to hold on to my prospects, she also slept with quite a few of them, so…..
I would not recommend Billy Eppler to sleep with any of his prospects and probably should keep an eye on his wife too…..
as much as the angels need more consistent bats, as well as the long relief to off-set a rotation #3 and #4 starters that will consistently put them in those 6-4, 7-5 ball games, they need to make a decision how they’re going to improve this roster around the proverbial story of keeping Trout, as well as keeping their fan base. I think they need to pony up on taking a chance on Keuchel, or one of the big bats left…
and Albert? C’mon, yeah… HOF’er… but cut the ties, he cannot run and is at the top of double play producers…
That why it hasn’t happened,I like not being in a hurry to trade Smith/Watson not to many teams have 2-Lefties like them.the Giants also need to have something in mind to try to replace those guys,I would rather do it at the Trade Deadline,when or if they are out of Contention and teams are more desperate,same with Mad Bum.
They’ve got Brandon Marsh and Jahmai Jones who was recently moved to 2B from the OF, but even they seem like an overpay for Smith or Watson. One year of a non-elite reliever just doesn’t bring back all that much
It’s funny you call that an overpay. Personally I don’t think there’s a chance the giants would trade Smith or Watson 1 on 1 for either of those prospects when there’s been rumors of the Cardinals and Giants discussing a Tyler O’Neil for Will Smith/Watson swap. I’d bet you Atlanta would top an offer like that in a heartbeat if they were given the chance to, and they really are the team of need here.
Problem is the Braves really are content doing nothing to their bullpen. They’ve chosen to completely ignore it as an issue. Denial is crazy
There is absolutely no way the Cards trade O’Neil for both of them much less 1 of them. That would be a huge overpay for Stl. I dont see the Braves giving anything close that either. I doubt they would deal any of their top 3 OF prospects for either of them
I’ve decided that Giants fans, along with Yankee fans, are the two worst “bad trade offer teams,” at least when they’re dealing the player and receiving the prospects. Haha Adell for Smith or Watson… you’ve gotta be kidding. You’d get laughed right out of the room. Not an Angels fan either.
Yeah, who here suggested Adell for Smith or Watson?
I’m a giants fan, and I think there’s no way we get a team’s top prospect, or in most cases not their #2 prospect either. The fact remains that Watson and Smith were some of the best relievers in MLB last year, so the Giants should expect to get a serious load, but a prospect such as Adell is completely out of the question. I could see Marsh or Jones, but that might get into Bumgarner territory too.
Huh? In what world would the Giants say no for Marsh or Jones for 1 of those bullpen arms. If they got that offer they take it and run with it
Smith is at least close to being an elite reliever though, no matter how you define it. He was one of the top 20 relievers in the league last year by almost any metric, and obviously is in an even more elite group if you measure him only against other left handed relievers.
And more valuable when you see what worse relievers are getting paid on the FA market. For less than 5M, you can’t even get a top 30 RP via free agency.
Smith and Watson’s FIPs last year were 2.07 and 2.45, those are most certainly elite numbers.
Just because a player doesn’t have media hype behind them does not mean they are not elite. Smith and Watson were 100% elite relievers last year, and there’s nothing you can argue against that.
If you are an Angels fan with that perspective, then its really obvious you’re trying to badmouth the players you really do want, but you also want to keep your prospects so you do something silly like call a 2.07 FIP “not elite”. Its transparent. We all know you’re doing this. Stop it please.
Not an Angels fan. I live on the east coast and really don’t care about the Angels or Giants either way
I’ll concede the “non-elite” part just because that’s way too subjective of a thing to ever reach an agreement on, but Smith and Watson still aren’t worth Marsh or Jones. Smith and Watson with their shiny 2.07 and 2.45 FIPs were worth 2.0 and 1.8 WAR (using fWAR, which is probably the most generous of the WAR calculations for them) respectively. Assuming $10M per win above replacement, and assuming both Smith and Watson repeat last year’s performance (which seems unlikely considering they both just posted the lowest FIP of their careers), Smith is worth $20M and Watson is worth $18M. Subtract their salaries for next year, and Smith has around $16M in surplus value and Watson has $14.5M. Compare that to Fangraphs prospect valuations which has Marsh worth $28M and Jones worth $23M, and… not worth it
Prospect for proven player trades almost always look lopsided in this way though. An imperfect, but more accurate way to gauge their values are to look at what similar relief pitchers have netted in recent trades. Brad Hand came with much more team control but returned a prospect ranked higher than any that exists in the Angels system. Britton has a longer track record of success than either Smith or Watson but had posted significantly worse numbers since his return from injury and came with less team control and still netted a package of prospects with far more projected value than any one of the Angels prospects you’re discussing. If you can find a recent deal where a reliever as good as Smith or better brought back a prospect return that’s worse that what you think is unreasonable I’d be interested to hear it, none come to mind for me.
sign a dang closer, epp!
Aren’t they good enough with a starting infield of Cozart, Simmons, Fletcher and Bour? Sheesh, let’s not overkill with these lefties.
Posted this in “Player avoid Arbitration in American League”
Sonny Gray got 7.5M, instead of mlbtr projected 9M Arb.
This will be a huge boon to his trade value, naysayers. — Sorry, have to call out certain poster(s). Aiming for a fringe, lower-end Top-100 MLB prospect 😉
There’s people saying Madison Bumgarner won’t net a top 100 prospect. If you think Gray will, buddy you will have a hard time with some of the posters in these threads. (Although I would agree with them. Your claim is outrageous).
Bumgarner absolutely will get a top 100 guy plus more.
Gray might get a 90s-110s-level guy on a 1-1 deal. He might get a couple from a teams top 15 prospects too, depending on how desperate a team gets.
You people in these threads are nearly ALWAYS far too conservative with what you think a player’s trade value is – big hint: it has almost nothing to do with what they did last season.
I wouldn’t give you a top 75 prospect for Gray. He showed he can’t live up to the spotlight
I’ll give you about three fiddy
Tree fiddy? Wait a minute, you ain’t no Girl Scout, you the Loch Ness Monster!
… Loch Ness Monster, …
who likes to Puff the Magic Dragon. Thus the profound insights.
Betts was never a top 100
Mookie
Same with Cano and Altuve
i dont know why they would give anything. if they are going for it they need a top arm. not dump prospects to sell a few extra seats.
@ tv;
I read your comment at least 8 times, and still can’t figure it out.
A real tongue twister.
I wouldn’t trade for Gray…..done…finished
Nothing of meaning here since you obviously don’t work for any MLB front office.
New Orleans doesn’t have a baseball team.
Would be interesting if NOLA did have a team. Can you imagine the food at concessions? Could have the Nevilles sing Take Me Out to the Ballgame, and fortune tellers to help with pitching changes.
But what would the team be called?
In honor of Pat O’Brien’s famous rum concoction I nominate the Hurricanes although that might not sit too well after the Katrina disaster.
Gray absolutely CAN handle the spotlight, here’s examples of that:
-Throwing a SHO vs Texas IN Texas on Game 162 to make the playoffs
baseball-reference.com/boxes/TEX/TEX201409280.shtm…
-Outpitching Verlander in his Tigers-prime in the ALDS
baseball-reference.com/boxes/OAK/OAK201310050.shtm…
-Holding the World Champ Astros to 1 hit over 5 IP in the ALCS
baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA201710170.shtm…
Care to reply? OR you can change your mind and chose not to believe the NYC-media hype and hate train you hopped on without thinking for yourself.
Keep dreaming.
No way the Yankees get a top 100 prospect!
I know you will argue home and road splits..his road splits were 3 games at Baltimore and 1 at KC…2 of the worst teams in baseball. So take those away and look at the rest..a lot closer to his home state!
Stop being a Yankee homer and look at the full picture not just what you want to see
Wow, 17 downvotes already. Hint? Sounds like youve been called out, yet again.
Please provide explain how a lower arb actual means he is actually worth the predicted amount. Take the time and think it thru.
Maybe, just maybe, Yankee fan, he is actually worth 7.5….and maybe its a zero sum game??
You just seem to be another in the long line of people attacking xabial.
Yeah, what is wrong with people? xabial made the correct call that Gray making less money will help is trade value and he gets downvoted-why??
Can MLBTR please do away with this fraudulent downvoting system and just leave upvotes only?
So, let me get this straight….
Pointing out facts like the VAST imbalance of downvotes to upvotes, yet again, is attacking?? Its called facts. And apparently, its a trend. I know, I know, facts are a minor and ill-timed inconvenience to some folks. Let me know if you need an ointment or a thunder blanket to help out.
And, if you bothered to read the full comment, there is a very legitimate question, to which will be no reply. Maybe, just maybe, its not an attack, but possibly a clue as to why there is such a long, long line of people who give him downvotes. Maybe there is a long line of people who, generally just get tired of a select few’s quest to be first to comment, or act like a vicitim if called out. …just maybe.
I’m not one of the many downvoters, but let’s be real here. It’s $1.5M. It’s not going to make a huge difference, and he’s still not worth a top 100 prospect. Any GM that gives up more than a mediocre prospect and/or lotto ticket for him is overpaying.
Strike Five;
Go back to Russia. I mean, at least you’d still have hockey, and curling.
Starting to chalk up the downvotes yourself there sporto.
Dude, the fact that he accepted less money than people expected is proof that he is actually worth less than people expected, which would imply that his trade value is also… well… less than you expected. Sorry, try again.
Shhh! Dont attack him!!
a-gone is done…respectable career that’s it.
Manny should be arriving in New York to ink that Yankess contract soon.
AGon is a shell of himself, and provides no value to MLB teams.
Corner infielder that can not hit do not provide any value to perspective teams, and I would find it a surprise that any team carries him through the length of spring training. Would actually take away evaluation time for long term players in the organization already.
Clubhouse presence is limited as his value as a teammate were questioned before Mets were interested in his last season. Expectation for AGon to mentor the in=house first basemen was not met as AGon did not spend any time with Dominic Smith and spent most time hanging out with fellow Latin players. Last ditch effort to resurrect his value as a clubhouse presence (especially as a potential staff role after playing career) failed miserably.
Imagine when steroids were around, he could be in his prime, and have extended his career another 5 seasons.
How do you know how Gonzalez spent his time off the field? Unless you’re a player or staff member or have a reliable insider source, this all seems like conjecture (and conjecture that runs dangerously close to racism, as far as your claim about his relationship with the other Latin players on the team). And Dom Smith was barely on the major league roster before Gonzalez was released – Gonzalez seemed publicly interested in working with him and I haven’t seen any evidence that he didn’t during spring training.
Starting Gonzalez was a mistake, however.
Your post has got to be one of the most factual, and realistic posts I’ve ever seen on this site.
That’s a great post.
Gotta love how much “conjecture” gets thrown at Latin players. I cannot believe people honestly think Manny is a “rotten human being” when he keeps all his mindgames on the field (and thats what they are – and they WORK thats why he does them) and is a great teammate and person off it. He plays to win and his talent is elite – there’s no reason to hate on him, it’s just his game. He didn’t set out to hurt Aguilar he -lightly- dragged his foot over his ankle – that’s mind games. It makes the 1B think he was doing something wrong and now he has to think about his next play with that taking up space in his mind….
Also: Michael Jordan, Larry Bird and Magic Johnson all did far worse and were all FAR dirtier players than anything Manny has done and no one cares. But white baseball writers didn’t cover them, so…conjecture-town here we are.
The “conjecture” here is rampant.
It’s hardly only done to a minority group or even all minority groups.
For example, every time an article talks about Scott Boras or quotes him, countless comments come out attacking him and attributing his motives to this or that. Mr. Boras is white. Same thing happens on articles about white owners, GM’s, managers and players.
If you’re going to find fault with peoples actions, please enforce your standard and expectations in an equal manner.
This is a baseball “rumors” site. The majority of rumors in the articles prove to be false. These are coming from someone that doesn’t name their sources, and even when quotes are attributed to people, they often deny them.
You don’t have to like a player who is a dirty player and doesn’t run hard to 1B.
You don’t have to like any player for any reason. Mother Teresa reincarnate could be playing 3B for the Padres and we are well within our rights to boo the holy hell out of ’em.
… ‘sides, she throws like a girl.
Are you done with your stump speech yet?
It’s not even close to racism, stop.
I want the braves to get Smith. Bring him home. He’s from Atlanta and we need him
A package of Bumgarner and Smith to the Braves makes a ton of sense.
I agree
I believe Eppler would go for Watson instead of Smith. Although Watson is 33, his performance in past years has been more regular (2.86 ERA avg in last 10 years), besides, he would be cheaper to pry from Frisco as the Angels don’t want to part ways with the promising youngsters they have on the roster.
People in the Bay Area hate the word Frisco.
… and Rice-a-Roni.
I’m sorry, buddy, but it’s going to take giving up some promising youngsters if you want to get quality major league talent back.
Dylan Covey should never see a mlb mound again.
Why? He spent a whopping 29.1 innings in AA in 2016 before being forced into the major leagues for 2017, and he was predictably awful. Last year he was fantastic for the first month or so before falling off completely (yes, he was awful for a while), and then he was really solid in a swingman role to end the year. He only gave up 15 ER’s in his last 11 appearances (5 starts), and 10 of them came in 2 games (10.1 innings). There’s absolutely no reason he shouldn’t at least have the swingman role to start this year for this Sox team.
With Rick Hahn looking to add another veteran starter, do you think the White Sox will make a play for any of the remaining FA’s:
Top SP Dallas Keuchel who is similar to former fan favorite Mark Buehrle.
Bring back Gio Gonzalez for the third time at less years and dollars.
Give familiar Derek Holland another shot now that he seems fully healthy.
Sign a revitalized ground ball pitcher like Wade Miley.
Take a chance on Ervin Santana on a one year incentive laden contract
Sign another veteran SP on a minimal MLB deal or on a minor league one with an invite to spring training?
Do you think they are more likely to trade for one rather than pursue a FA?
This might make for a good poll question.
All things considered, I might prefer they bring in another southpaw to balance out their rotation that only has one currently in Carlos Rodon.
I think it’ll depend on what happens with Manny/Harper. If they land one of those guys, they may be more inclined to trade for a good young guy with some control or go for someone like Dallas. If they strikeout on the big 2, there’s no reason to force anything, so they’ll probably just sign another depth guy to eat innings.
Good take.
Dallas Keuchel could make some sense regardless of the Machado/Harper outcome depending on his medicals and the ultimate contract he receives. He’s looking for a 5-year guaranteed contract which seems too risky for any prospective team right now. If he’s be willing to settle for a 4 year deal with a vesting option or two it could make a little more sense.
Aside from his recent injury history, he reminds me so much of Mark Buehrle: A “softer-tossing” southpaw with good command, the ability to induce soft contact and ground balls, a multiple Gold Glove winner, a championship ring and pitching successfully in a HR/hitter-friendly home ballpark. Keuchel lacks Buehrle’s two no-hitters but does own a Cy Young Award that eluded the former White Sox lefty.
Another consideration for the White Sox to pony up for him would be their lack of high level southpaw starting pitchers in their system. Carlos Rodon has that ability in their current rotation but all of their best prospects are right-handed, most of whom are power pitchers. I like the contrast in styles that Keuchel could provide short and long term, along with the veteran presence and leadership he could provide to a young staff going forward.
“Dylan Covey” …
He ain’t gonna go to hell
…… For anybody.
MadBum and Smith for Adell and Marsh 🙂 might be a little high haha
I think Adell is our “untouchable”. Only way hes getting moved is for a bonafide star like JTR or Kluber/Bauer. FWIW I think that’s extremely unlikely at this juncture
You’re probably right, but In saying that prospects are just that, what other intriguing pieces are there?
Not a little too high…it would be A LOT too high
MadBum is in the same boat as Gray. Both coming off lackluster ’18. How far would you go to take a chance on either starter. Especially to the Braves, Brew crew who want to get back to post season.
Comparing Bum to Gray is comparing a Mercedes to a Buick.
porkins;
Buicks are like a**holes, … everybody’s got one.
That makes zero sense. I don’t know anyone who has a Buick. Then again, I’m simply assuming everyone I see has an a**hole.
Bumgarner also has a legitimate case for being the best post season starting pitcher in the history of baseball, is still only 29 and might be able to attribute some of his struggles the last season and a half to a couple of fluky injuries. Let’s not lump him into any category with Sonny Gray.
Bochy is probably looking a Agon, and Headley right now
The Angels traded Alverez, who was their best RP last year, who they would have controlled for two more years, for someone who is not one of their top ten prospects. No way do they trade one of their top 5 prospect for either.
Adrian Gonzalez can be in whatever shape he wants to be, if his eye and mechanics haven’t changed then he’s still AAAA.
Talk about a guy who should have gotten on board with the launch angle craze…
Gonzalez looked out of shape. He may be able to squeeze a couple more years out of the game by going with a lighter bat, and dropping some weight. Many older players fail to change as they get older.