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Braves Activate Will Smith, Designate Scott Schebler

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The Braves have activated lefty Will Smith, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. He had not yet pitched this year due to a prior coronavirus infection.

Recently acquired outfielder Scott Schebler was designated for assignment to open 40-man and active roster space. The organization also optioned righty Chad Sobotka and catcher Alex Jackson to trim down to 28 men on the active roster.

Smith inked a three-year deal over the winter after serving as the Giants’ closer. He’ll likely function in a setup role in Atlanta, pitching in front of fellow former San Francisco 9th-inning man Mark Melancon.

Schebler, 29, recorded a lone plate appearance with the Braves before being cut loose. He logged a thirty homer campaign with the Reds, so power isn’t in short supply, but he has not been a consistent on-base threat and ran out of chances in Cincinnati.

Pitching Notes: Strasburg, Smith, Teheran, Fulmer, Marlins

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Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg missed his scheduled start Saturday on account of nerve irritation in his pitching hand, but he said at the time he wasn’t “extremely concerned” about it. Manager Dave Martinez issued another update on Strasburg on Monday, saying last year’s World Series MVP threw lightly, felt better and had less tingling in his hand, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets. It’s still unclear when Strasburg will debut this season, though. Having started 1-3 during a 60-game season, the Nats need him back sooner than later.

  • In encouraging news for the Braves, left-handed closer Will Smith is no longer dealing with COVID-19 symptoms and hopes to be closing in on a return, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Smith has been down since July 4 because of the coronavirus; if he is able to pitch this year, the hope is that he’ll be a major part of Atlanta’s late-game setup. That’s what the team was banking on when it signed Smith to a three-year, $40MM contract in free agency last winter. Smith earned that payday on the heels of several strong seasons with the Royals, Brewers and Giants.
  • Speaking of Atlanta, one of its former hurlers – Angels righty Julio Teheran – continues to progress toward a 2020 debut, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic relays. Teheran, who’s recovering from his own coronavirus diagnosis, is slated to throw three innings and 55 pitches in Long Beach, Calif., on Tuesday, per pitching coach Mickey Callaway. If all goes well then, Teheran could join the Angels’ rotation. The team signed Teheran, 29, to a one-year, $9MM guarantee over the winter after a successful run in Atlanta from 2011-19.
  • The Tigers plan to use righty Michael Fulmer as an opener all year and are unlikely to let him go five to six innings in any of his appearances, pitching coach Rick Anderson revealed (via Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic). Fulmer’s a former AL Rookie of the Year winner who topped out at 164 2/3 frames in his second season in 2017, but it’s understandable that the Tigers are taking a cautious approach with him. After all, the 27-year-old is just returning from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in March 2019. He took the mound Monday for the first time since September 2018 and surrendered four earned runs on five hits in 2 2/3 innings during a blowout loss to the Royals.
  • The coronavirus has deprived the Marlins of a slew of players, leaving them to scramble for replacements, but righty prospect Edward Cabrera is not a candidate for their roster as of now, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports. Cabrera is not dealing with the virus, fortunately, but “a minor arm issue” that has stopped him from throwing over the past week, Jackson writes. The 22-year-old was tremendous last season between High-A and Double-A, combining for a stingy 2.23 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 96 2/3 innings, and is widely regarded as a top 100 prospect.

Freddie Freeman, Touki Toussaint Cleared To Rejoin Braves

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Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman and right-hander Touki Toussaint have been cleared to rejoin the club, Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets. Both players have been out since July 4 because of positive coronavirus tests. Reliever Will Smith landed on the shelf when Freeman and Toussaint did, but he hasn’t been cleared yet, per David O’Brien of The Athletic.

It’s not known how long it will take for either Freeman or Toussaint to ramp up, though manager Brian Snitker said Thursday that the Braves hadn’t yet ruled out Freeman for the Braves’ season opener on July 24. Whether or not he plays then, it’s clear Freeman’s season debut should come sooner than later, which no doubt comes as an enormous relief for the team. After all, Freeman’s a four-time All-Star who continued his reign as one of the game’s most feared hitters last season.

Toussaint doesn’t carry that type of prestigious track record, having thrown 70 2/3 innings with a 4.97 ERA/4.49 FIP and 9.81 K/9 against 5.99 BB/9 since he first reached the majors in 2018. But the 24-year-old’s a former high-end prospect whose return is a welcome one considering the need for pitching in a pandemic-shortened season. And the Braves could use the depth with Smith’s status up in the air, injured lefty Cole Hamels unlikely to be available for the start of the season, and righty Felix Hernandez having opted out of the campaign.

Freddie Freeman, Three Other Braves Test Positive For COVID-19

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A quartet of Atlanta Braves tested positive for COVID-19: Freddie Freeman, Pete Kozma, Touki Toussaint, and Will Smith, per Sportscaster Kelly Crull. Though the teams do not have to release the names of the players who test positive for coronavirus, in this case, the players consented to have their names released in order to spread awareness.

Smith and Toussaint are asymptomatic at this time. Freeman tested negative upon intake, but started developing symptoms before workouts were to begin, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien. Since it appears Freeman caught the virus while at Braves’ camp, this will be an important situation to track.

Not to mention, it’s possibly a blow to the Braves on-field expectations for 2020. There’s no telling how severe a case Freeman is dealing with, and even after he’s back to full health, he’ll need to pass the new protocols to return to play. Freeman, 30, is the longest-tenured member of the Braves. When he made his debut in 2010, Chipper Jones, David Ross, Derek Lowe, Jason Heyward, Tim Hudson, Craig Kimbrel, and Brian McCann were still a part of the team.

Though it seems like he’s been around forever, Freeman still produces like a superstar. He hit .295/.389/.549 even while dealing with an elbow injury that sapped him of some power.

Smith, meanwhile, could return earlier if he remains asymptomatic, but it’s important to remember that anybody appearing without symptoms who test positive could simply be pre-symptomatic, at which point there’s no telling yet what kind of timetable for a return might be. Smith was to be an important piece of Atlanta’s bullpen after joining the club from San Francisco via free agency. As the Giants’ closer last year, Smith went 6-0 with 34 saves and a 2.76 ERA/3.23 FIP over 60 games.

Toussaint had an outside shot at winning a spot in the Atlanta bullpen, though he figured to join the big league club at some point during the season as he has in each of the past two campaigns. Kozma was to serve as a depth infield option after playing all of 2019 for the Tigers’ Triple-A club.

Teams That Gained Or Lost Draft Picks Via Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Now that Marcell Ozuna has signed, all 10 of the players who were issued a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer in November have settled on teams for the 2020 season.  Of that group, two (Jose Abreu of the White Sox and Jake Odorizzi of the Twins) accepted their qualifying offers and returned to their clubs — Abreu, in fact, topped off his QO by signing a contract extension that will run through the 2022 season.  Stephen Strasburg also isn’t changing uniforms, as the longtime Nationals ace rejected the club’s qualifying offer but eventually re-signed with Washington on a seven-year, $245MM deal.

That leaves us with seven QO players who will be playing on new teams in 2020, and as such, the draft compensation attached to those seven players has also now been allotted.  Under the rules of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the same compensation was handed out to all six teams who lost those players, as the entire sextet fell under the same financial criteria.  The Mets, Cardinals, Braves, Giants, Nationals, and Astros all aren’t revenue-sharing recipients, nor did they exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2019, so all six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft.

Here is how the so-called “Compensation Round” breaks down.  The order of the picks is determined by worst record-to-best record from the 2019 season.

68. Giants (for Madison Bumgarner)
69. Giants (for Will Smith)
70. Mets (for Zack Wheeler)
71. Cardinals (for Marcell Ozuna)
72. Nationals (for Anthony Rendon)
73. Braves (for Josh Donaldson)
74. Astros (for Gerrit Cole)

San Francisco now possesses five of the first 87 picks in next June’s draft.  With the Giants still in the NL wild card race last summer, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi opted to hang onto Bumgarner and Smith rather than trade either player, a decision that led to some criticism since San Francisco was widely considered to be closer to rebuilding than truly contending.  The critics’ judgement grew even harsher after the Giants went 22-32 record in August and September and fell well short of the postseason.  Still, given that teams were reluctant to part with top-flight young talent for even controllable players (let alone rentals like Bumgarner and Smith) at the trade deadline, Zaidi clearly felt that the two picks he could recoup from the qualifying offer process were more valuable than anything offered for the two Giants pitchers last July.

It’s worth noting that the 74th overall pick will be Houston’s first selection of the 2020 draft, after the Astros lost both their first- and second-highest selections in both 2020 and 2021 as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.  Since the Red Sox are also under league investigation for their own alleged use of electronics to steal opponents’ signs in 2018, Boston could also potentially lose at least one pick in this year’s draft, so we can’t yet say that the 2020 draft order is finalized.  Of course, the order could be further muddled if more trades occur involving picks from the two Competitive Balance Draft rounds, which are the only types of draft picks that can be traded.  We’ve already seen the Rays and Cardinals swap their picks in Rounds A and B as part of the multi-player trade that sent Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay earlier this month.

Let’s now look at the six teams who signed the seven QO-rejecting free agents, and see what those clubs had to give up in order to make the signings.

Yankees, for signing Gerrit Cole: Since New York exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2019, they gave up their second- and fifth-round picks in the 2020 draft (a.k.a. their second- and fifth-highest selections).  The Yankees also gave up $1MM in funds from their international signing bonus pool.

Diamondbacks, for signing Madison Bumgarner: As a team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and was a revenue-sharing recipient, the D’Backs had to give up their third-highest draft choice to sign Bumgarner.  This ended up being Arizona’s second-round selection — the team’s first two picks are their first-rounder (18th overall) and their pick in Competitive Balance Round A (33rd overall).

Twins, for signing Josh Donaldson: Minnesota also received revenue-sharing and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, so signing Donaldson put the Twins in position to give up their third-highest draft selection.  However, the Twins are actually giving up their fourth-highest pick in the 2020 draft, which is their third-round selection.  The Twins’ actual third selection is their pick in Competitive Balance Round B, but those picks aren’t eligible to be forfeited as compensation for QO free agent signings.

Angels, for signing Anthony Rendon: Since the Halos didn’t receive revenue-sharing funds and also didn’t pay any luxury tax money, they had to give up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K in international bonus funds to sign Rendon.

Phillies, for signing Zack Wheeler: The Phillies surrendered their second-highest selection (their second-round pick) and $500K of their international bonus pool, since they were another team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax line and didn’t receive revenue-sharing money.

Braves, for signing Will Smith and Marcell Ozuna: The dual signings put Atlanta in line for a dual penalty.  The Braves didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and also didn’t receive revenue-sharing money, so they gave up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K of international bonus money for Smith.  In landing Ozuna, the Braves then had to also forfeit their third-round pick (their third-highest selection) and another $500K from their international bonus pool.

Losing two draft picks and $1MM in international pool money isn’t nothing, though these particular sanctions had less impact on the Braves than on other teams, which undoubtedly influenced their decisions.  First of all, the compensatory pick Atlanta received for Donaldson is higher in the draft order than their third-round pick, so the net loss is only a second-round pick.  Secondly, the Braves’ movement in the international market is still limited by the punishment handed out by Major League Baseball in November 2017 for Atlanta’s past international signing violations.  Part of that punishment included the Braves’ pool for the 2020-21 international market being reduced by 50 percent — being so handcuffed in the international market anyway, the Braves probably felt $1MM in pool money was no great loss.

Filing Day Reactions: NL East

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After a busy filing day, let’s see what’s in store for a couple of teams in the NL East…

  • Only Shane Greene remains from their arbitration pool. The Braves and Greene have a $500K gap in their filing numbers to reconcile lest the panel get the final say. Greene will figure in the back end mix no matter his price point. With Will Smith in tow and a full season of Mark Melancon, Greene should slot in somewhere closer to the 7th inning along with Chris Martin and Luke Jackson. Overall, the Braves payroll is already set to open at a franchise record $130MM for the 2020 season – and that’s without Josh Donaldson, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien. It certainly says something that the Braves are still trying to bring back Donaldson despite already setting a team record for payroll. Despite the Nationals’ World Series title, the Braves are the back-to-back defending NL East champs, and they’ve been aggressive this winter in their attempt to make it a turkey with a third consecutive division crown in 2020.
  • The Phillies came away from filing day with deals with all but two of their arbitration candidates: J.T. Realmuto and Hector Neris. Philadelphia would like to hammer out an extension for Realmuto, with Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer supposing Realmuto to desire “something in the neighborhood of five years and $100 million.” An extension could grant GM Matt Klentak important flexibility. Right now the Opening Day payroll figures to land around $202MM, giving the club about $6MM in wiggle room for in-season additions before exceeding the luxury tax. Phillies managing partner John Middleton is prepared to pay the tax, but not for a team that doesn’t figure for the playoffs. For the second consecutive year, it looks like the Phillies will wait to see where they are in the standings before deciding to pay the tax.
  • The Nationals settled with all their arbitration eligible players, but GM Mike Rizzo spoke with the media today, touching on a number of topics. They expect resolution on the Ryan Zimmerman front shortly, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. GM Mike Rizzo met with Zimmerman for 90 minutes on Friday, and it’s long been expected that the Nats would bring back Mr. National for the title defense. As for third base, Rizzo considers the position filled without totally shutting the door on a Donaldson signing, per The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli. Asdrubal Cabrera and Starlin Castro figure to get time at third, and speculatively speaking, Howie Kendrick saw a few innings at the hot corner last year as well. Bottom line, the Nats plan on creativity and flexibility for their whole infield this year, and they are okay not naming and everyday starter, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post.

NL Notes: Dubon, Giants, Smith, 40-Man Additions

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In trying to predict Mauricio Dubon’s upcoming role with the 2020 Giants, MLB.com’s Maria Guardado draws a comparison between the 25-year-old Dubon and utilityman Chris Taylor of the Dodgers (link). Dubon, as Guaradado points out, already showed himself capable at second and short last year after being acquired from the Brewers in exchange for Drew Pomeranz, and the 25-year-old also has a few games of center field experience dating back to his time in the 2016 Arizona Fall League. While it may be a stretch to conclude that Dubon will be able to handle the outfield’s most challenging position based on a handful of years-old appearances, it isn’t completely outlandish to think that teams may consider some unconventional routes toward manning center in 2020. After all, the free agency class at that position is rather weak, with only Brett Gardner and Shogo Akiyama projecting as possible starting options. Meanwhile, several teams seeking contention, including the Phillies, Padres, and Cubs, have obvious openings in center; the Giants, for their part, are facing some uncertainty as to their approach to Kevin Pillar this offseason. In his first 30 games of MLB action, Dubon hit .274/.306/.434 with four homers and three steals in 2019.

More notes from around the NL on a calm Saturday night…

  • Wednesday’s deadline to add players to 40-man roster’s in advance of next month’s Rule 5 Draft brought a flurry of activity, and we’ve already covered some of the more interesting veterans that were DFA’d to accommodate various roster moves. But what of the 112 players who found themselves on MLB organizational rosters for the first time? Many of them, as noted in a piece from MLB.com’s Jim Callis, are a good reminder of the labyrinthian routes s0me players have to take in order to achieve their dreams of donning big league uniforms. Callis’ list features a former prep standout who overcame addiction issues to achieve success in the minors (Phil Pfeifer of the Braves), a former Mexican League pitcher who, despite never pitching above High-A, intrigued this season with a 94-98 mph heater (Manuel Rodriguez of the Cubs), and a 2013 DR signing who may reach the bigs with a new org after previously spending a half-decade in Rookie ball (Christopher Sanchez, who arrived to the Phillies via trade from the Rays on Wednesday). They may not represent household names, but they may represent a few new names to root for.
  • Kudos to Joel Sherman of The New York Post for authoring a thoroughly interesting piece that attempts to explain why Yasmani Grandal and Will Smith, in particular, represented the first major signings of the 2019-2020 offseason (link). It was Grandal and Smith’s relatively “distinct” profiles, in Sherman’s view, that prompted the White Sox and Braves, respectively, to lunge toward early signings; while teams may be able to convince themselves, for example, that Zack Wheeler makes for a decent alternative to Stephen Strasburg or Gerrit Cole, there were no such viable alternatives to Smith, a left-handed reliever capable of pitching to both sides of the plate, or Grandal, a switch-hitting catcher who excels at both sides of the game. While the next-best lefty reliever may be Drew Pomeranz, it’s not as if teams would feel entirely comfortable with that pitcher’s comparative lack of a relief track record; same goes for Travis d’Arnaud, a player who, despite his arguable position as the market’s second-best backstop, simply doesn’t offer Grandal’s history of sustained success (or health). As Sherman touches on, Smith’s well-rounded ability, in particular, could prove to be a boon for the Braves. With next year’s introduction of a three-batter minimum rule, it’s generally impossible, at this juncture, to predict how teams might be compromised in late-inning situations. While recent years have seen a LOOGY or two stashed on every staff, pitchers like Smith figure to become increasingly valuable under the new rules, where relievers will likely have to face at least one opposite-handed batter. In 65.1 innings in 2019, the Braves’ newest addition was death on same-handed batters (.166 wOBA) but more-than-useful against righties as well (.298 wOBA).

7 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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The 4pm CT deadline has passed for free agents to accept or reject qualifying offers, and seven of the 10 players issued offers have officially turned them down.  An eighth free agent, Will Smith, rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer and left the free agent market even before the deadline passed, signing a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves.  Jake Odorizzi of the Twins and Jose Abreu of the White Sox each accepted their team’s qualifying offers, and will now earn $17.8MM for the 2020 season.

Here are the seven players who rejected their former team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer….

There aren’t any surprises in that list, as there wasn’t doubt that Bumgarner, Cole, Donaldson, Rendon, Strasburg, and Wheeler would forego the one-year offer in search of a much richer, multi-year commitment.  There was perhaps a bit more uncertainty surrounding Ozuna and Smith, given that Ozuna was coming off a pair of good but unspectacular years in St. Louis and Smith could perhaps have been wary of how the QO would impact his market, given what happened to another closer in Craig Kimbrel last winter.

If anything, the only real surprise occurred on the acceptance side, as Odorizzi was seen as a candidate to receive a multi-year offer before he opted to remain in Minnesota in 2020.  Abreu, on the other hand, was widely expected to remain with the White Sox in some fashion, either via the QO or perhaps a multi-year extension.  It should be noted that Odorizzi and Abreu are still free to negotiate longer-term deals with their respective teams even after accepting the qualifying offer.

Teams that sign a QO-rejecting free agent will have to give up at least one draft pick and some amount of international bonus pool money as compensation.  (Click here for the list of what each individual team would have to forfeit to sign a QO free agent).  The Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, and Braves are each in the same tier of compensation pool, so if any of their QO free agents signs elsewhere, the six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft, or roughly in the range of the 75th to 85th overall pick.  Atlanta, for instance, probably didn’t mind giving up their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft to sign Smith since the Braves have another pick coming back to their if Donaldson leaves for another club.

A total of 90 players have been issued qualifying offers since the QO system was introduced during the 2012-13 offseason, and Odorizzi and Abreu become the seventh and eighth players to accept the one-year pact.  Odorizzi and Abreu are now ineligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips into free agency, so both players won’t be tied to draft/international pool penalties if they hit the open market following the 2020 season.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was the first to report that Donaldson turned down his QO, while ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan was the first to report on the other six names.

Braves Sign Will Smith

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The Braves have signed closer Will Smith to a three-year contract, the team announced.  The three guaranteed years will pay Smith $39MM, and Atlanta has a $13MM club option for 2023.  That option contains a $1MM buyout, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link), bringing the total value of the deal to $40MM.  Smith will earn $13MM in each year of the contract, which doesn’t include any no-trade protection, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links).  Smith is represented by CAA Sports.

The Braves’ early splash into the free agent pool gives them the top closer on the market this offseason, and the 13th-ranked player on MLBTR’s list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.  Smith’s contract fell just a touch short of our prediction of a three-year, $42MM deal, though he stands to soundly beat that projected number if the Braves exercise their club option in three years’ time.  Smith will also now get to suit up for his hometown team, as the Georgia native still lives in Atlanta.

Will SmithThough there hadn’t yet been any official word about Smith’s rejection of the Giants’ qualifying offer, he turned down the one-year, $17.8MM QO for the longer-term pact with the Braves.  Rosenthal reports that Jeff Berry, Smith’s agent, told interested teams that Smith would accept the qualifying offer and remain in San Francisco unless an acceptable multi-year proposal came together.

2019 marked Smith’s first season as a full-time closer, and the left-hander responded with one of his finest seasons.  Smith posted a 2.76 ERA, 4.57 K/BB rate, and 13.2 K/9 over 65 1/3 innings for San Francisco, recording 34 saves in the process.  That 13.2 K/9 marks a new single-season best for Smith, who has a healthy 10.8 K/9 over 410 2/3 career innings.  The 30-year-old had previously established himself as a quality setup man with the Brewers and Giants, and came back strong with a big 2018 season after missing all of 2017 due to Tommy John surgery.

While Smith was one of the sport’s better closers last season, he might not continue in that role, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets that the Braves are temporarily still planning to use Mark Melancon as their primary closer.  Ironically, Smith’s elevation to closer in 2018 came as a result of Melancon’s injury-related struggles when the two relievers were teammates in San Francisco.  Melancon did look good during a healthy 2019, however, both with the Giants and after he was dealt to Atlanta at the trade deadline.

However the Braves choose to deploy their relievers, Smith represents a major addition to an Atlanta bullpen that generally posted middle-of-the-pack numbers amidst an inconsistent season.  Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos added Melancon, Chris Martin, and Shane Greene at the trade deadline in an attempt to bolster his pen for both 2019 and the future (Melancon and Greene are still under team control), though more reinforcements were needed with Martin, Anthony Swarzak, and Jerry Blevins headed for free agency.

Smith fills a particular need for left-handed relief for the Braves, who have already checked off several boxes off their winter to-do list though the offseason only officially began less than two weeks ago.  Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers, and Darren O’Day have all been re-signed on one-year deals for a total of $10.25MM, allowing Anthopoulos the payroll space for a bigger strike to sign Smith.

There was widespread speculation that Smith was going to be changing teams last July, though the Giants’ surprising surge into wild card contention inspired president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi to hold onto some of his most prized trade assets.  While Melancon and Sam Dyson were dealt, such players as Smith, Madison Bumgarner, and Tony Watson were all retained, leaving Zaidi in line for some criticism when the Giants faded to a 77-85 record.

San Francisco will still receive some compensation for Smith, however, as his rejection of the qualifying offer will net the club a bonus draft pick that will fall between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft.  The Giants will get a pick in that same area should Bumgarner (who also declined the QO) sign elsewhere.  The extra draft capital could make Zaidi more open to surrendering a draft pick to sign a QO free agent himself, though it remains to be seen if the Giants will be big spenders this winter.

As a revenue-sharing recipient, the Braves will only have to give their third-highest pick in the 2020 draft as compensation for signing Smith.  This is currently Atlanta’s third-round selection, though it could end up being the team’s own compensatory pick (between Comp Balance Round B and the third round) if the qualifying offer-declining Josh Donaldson signs with a team besides Atlanta.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Which Pick(s) Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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We looked already at the possible draft compensation that teams might recoup from losing players who decline qualifying offers. Now, we’ll take a glance at the topic from the other side of the coin: what it’ll cost other teams to sign such players.

Last week, 10 players received qualifying offers. Teams interested in signing Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Jake Odorizzi, Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Will Smith will therefore be required to forfeit draft and perhaps international bonus considerations in order to sign anyone from that bunch — assuming each of the 10 rejects that one-year, $17.8MM sum. Here’s a breakdown of the specific penalties that all 30 teams would face in signing a “qualified” free agent:

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs

If any of these three teams signs a qualified free agent, they will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in next summer’s draft. They’d all also see $1MM docked from their 2020-21 international bonus pools. The Red Sox, in particular, seem more intent on shedding payroll and lowering their luxury hit than on adding a high-end free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would mean then surrendering their third- and sixth-highest selections as well as an additional $1MM in international funds.

Revenue Sharing Recipients:  Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays

These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax during the 2019 season. As such, they’d forfeit “only” their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft by signing a qualified free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would require forfeiting their fourth-highest pick. A third would mean their fifth-highest pick (and so on). Revenue-sharing recipients who do not cross the luxury threshold face the smallest penalty in signing a qualified free agent.

All Other Clubs: Nationals, White Sox, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays

These 12 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K upon signing a qualified free agent. At 67-95, the Blue Jays had the worst record among this group, meaning it’d be most costly (in terms of amateur talent acquisition capital) for them to sign a qualified free agent. However, GM Ross Atkins has said since the season ended that such concerns won’t deter the Jays from pursuing qualified free agents.

For teams in this group, signing a second qualified free agent would mean punting next year’s third-highest selection and an additional $500K. A third would mean parting with the fourth-highest pick and another $500K (and so on).

—

While those penalties surely count for something, it’s worth reminding that they’re also not as steep as some clubs like to portray. Each team’s top overall selection is protected, and the highest draft choice that’d theoretically be forfeited would be the Cardinals’ Competitive Balance (Round A) selection, which would come in after the first round and after all of the compensatory picks for these free-agent losses. Competitive Balance Round A in 2019 spanned pick Nos. 35-41, and the slot value of those selections ranged from $2.1MM (No. 35) to $1.81MM (No. 41).

With 10 QOs this year, that compensatory round will be longer. Most teams with a Competitive Balance draft pick next season (barring trades of those picks, which are the only draft choices eligible to be traded) will fall into the “revenue sharing recipient” bucket, meaning their Round A picks would be protected. If the Cardinals pass on a qualified free agent, then the Jays and their second-round pick (likely in the mid-40s) would face the largest potential penalty.

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