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Will Smith

Did The Astros Fix Will Smith?

By Steve Adams | January 4, 2023 at 2:52pm CDT

Back on Aug. 1, when the Astros and Braves agreed to a swap of veteran pitchers Jake Odorizzi and Will Smith, the move was met with some confusion by Astros fans. Odorizzi hadn’t endeared himself with a rocky start to his tenure in Houston, nor his public gripes about the team’s usage of him (specifically, a quick hook even on effective days), but he’d vastly outperformed Smith to that point in the season.

At the time of the trade, Odorizzi had a 3.60 ERA in 60 innings, and while it was accompanied by a lackluster strikeout rate, that was partially offset by a strong walk rate. Odorizzi wasn’t a star by any means but had been a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter. Houston, however, had six options ahead of him on the depth chart and felt a need for some left-handed help in the ’pen. Some ’Stros fans took issue with the return of Smith, in particular, though — and understandably so. He’d posted a tepid 4.38 ERA to that point in the season, and the under-the-hood numbers were actually worse. Smith’s 24% strikeout rate was his lowest since moving the to the bullpen, and his 12.3% walk rate was a career-worst. He was averaging 1.70 homers per nine innings pitched, and metrics like FIP (5.22) and xFIP (4.76) didn’t view him favorably.

Part of the swap was surely the similarities in their 2022 contracts. Smith was owed the balance of a $13MM salary and had a $1MM buyout on a 2023 option. Odorizzi was earning just $5MM but had another $2.5MM of easily attainable incentives, plus a weighty $3.25MM buyout on a 2023 option. More at the heart of the issue, however, it seems the Astros viewed Smith as someone they could revitalize with some tweaks.

That’s indeed how things played out, though the changes were more subtle than glaring. Smith largely scrapped his curveball in Houston, dropping from an 11.9% usage rate to just 3.6%. He threw slightly fewer fastballs (41.8% in Atlanta, 39.1% with Houston) and upped the usage on his slider, throwing it at a career-high 52.1% of the time. With the ’Stros, Smith also dropped both his vertical and horizontal release points, although not dramatically.

There was no major spike in spin rate — the spin on his four-seamer actually dipped slightly following the trade — and Smith didn’t begin throwing harder or unveil a new pitch that changed his fortunes. Rather, the subtle tweaks to his mechanics and a more acute focus on two pitches seemed to turn his fortunes. He located his slider more effectively (pre-trade, post-trade) and, crucially, avoided the heart of the plate far more often with his four-seamer (pre-trade, post-trade). Smith operated far more regularly and more effectively in the top-third of the strike zone — and just above it.

Unsurprisingly, his swinging-strike rate jumped from an already-sharp 13.6% in Atlanta to a massive 17.3% with Houston. He was able to spot both pitches more effectively both on the fringes of the zone and within the zone; his first-pitch strike rate spiked from 63.2% with the Braves to 72.2% with the Astros. His walk rate plummeted from 12.3% to 4.4%.

Smith’s time with the Astros proved brief, but in two months with Houston he tossed 22 innings of 3.27 ERA ball with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a 4.4% walk rate. After averaging 1.7 homers per nine frames with Atlanta, he allowed just two in 22 innings with Houston (0.82 HR/9). If anything, Smith was bizarrely unlucky on balls in play as an Astro; he yielded a sky-high .350 average on balls in play. Smith wasn’t on the Astros’ ALDS or ALCS roster — perhaps in part due to a heavily right-handed Yankees lineup — but was added to the World Series roster. He did not, however, pitch in a game. Houston declined his option at season’s end, favoring a $1MM buyout over a $13MM salary next season.

That outcome seemed obvious, but it’s hard to ignore the high note on which Smith ended the regular season. The lefty overwhelming improved his command, missed more bats, issued fewer walks and yielded fewer home runs. He still wasn’t used in many high-leverage spots by the Astros, but that’s in part due to their generally strong bullpen. Over his final 17 outings of the season, Smith pitched to a 2.35 ERA with an 18-to-2 K/BB ratio in 15 1/3 innings.

However, because Smith was generally used in lower-leverage spots and because he didn’t pitch in the postseason, his turnaround in Houston flew largely under the radar. On the one hand, it’s arguably a damning reality that he was passed over in leverage situations and omitted from two of the Astros’ three postseason rosters. On the other hand, the results when he did pitch were excellent, and Houston had four other relievers with a sub-3.00 ERA (and five others with a FIP of 3.02 or better). Smith was a luxury but not someone they necessarily needed to acquire to plug into those leverage positions for lack of better options.

As was the case in the Houston bullpen, Smith is again somewhat lost in the shuffle of the offseason’s free-agent class. MLBTR ranked Taylor Rogers as the top lefty in this year’s class, and he indeed secured a three-year deal. Smith was never going to get another contract along those lines, but he’s perhaps closer to the next tier of lefties than one might expect when looking at his season-long numbers. Andrew Chafin and Matt Moore both had better seasons, and Chafin in particular seems like he should command a strong contract after his past couple years of performance. Smith’s end to the season, however, was quite strong, and if his next team gets more of the Houston version than the Atlanta version, he’ll likely be a bargain.

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Atlanta Braves Houston Astros MLBTR Originals Will Smith

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Which Remaining Free Agent Relievers Are Coming Off The Best Seasons?

By Anthony Franco | December 26, 2022 at 4:45pm CDT

The offseason floodgates opened this month, with an avalanche of free agent activity once the Winter Meetings got underway. Things have quieted down in recent days thanks to the holidays, but clubs are likely to again get back to attacking the free agent market in earnest this week.

Most of the winter’s top names are off the board, leaving teams to mostly look through lower-cost options as they search for upgrades on the margins of the roster. There are still a number of experienced options available, particularly for teams seeking to round out the bullpen. Using MLBTR’s free agent list, we find 47 pitchers who tossed at least 20 innings out of a team’s bullpen in 2022 and remain unsigned.

We’ll sort the remaining free agent relievers by various metrics of 2022 performance to identify some of the top arms. There are obviously other factors for teams to consider — quality of raw stuff, pre-2022 track record, the player’s injury history, etc. — but a brief snapshot on the top bullpen arms by last year’s performance should provide a decent starting point for players teams might target moving forward. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as relievers).

ERA (league average — 3.86)

  1. Matt Moore (LHP), 1.95
  2. Alex Young (LHP), 2.08
  3. Matt Wisler (RHP), 2.23
  4. Wily Peralta (RHP), 2.72
  5. Brad Hand (LHP), 2.80
  6. Andrew Chafin (LHP), 2.83
  7. David Phelps (RHP), 2.87
  8. Ralph Garza Jr. (RHP), 3.34
  9. Jackson Stephens (RHP), 3.38
  10. Michael Fulmer (RHP), 3.39

Strikeout rate (league average — 23.6%)

  1. Daniel Norris (LHP), 30%
  2. Darren O’Day (RHP), 27.7%
  3. Andrew Chafin, 27.6%
  4. Matt Moore, 27.3%
  5. Aroldis Chapman (LHP), 26.9%
  6. Steve Cishek (RHP), 25.8%
  7. Chasen Shreve (LHP), 25.4%
  8. Will Smith (LHP), 24.9%
  9. David Phelps, 23.9%
  10. Noé Ramirez, 23.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.5 percentage points)

  1. Andrew Chafin, 19.8 points
  2. Daniel Norris, 19 points
  3. Darren O’Day, 17 points
  4. Chasen Shreve, 16.7 points
  5. Steve Cishek, 16.4 points
  6. Craig Stammen (RHP), 15.7 points
  7. Will Smith, 15.3 points
  8. Matt Moore, 14.8 points
  9. Ross Detwiler (LHP), 14.8 points
  10. Luke Weaver (RHP), 13.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 43.5%)

  1. Luis Perdomo (RHP), 62.5%
  2. Joe Smith (RHP), 57.5%
  3. Alex Young, 55.7%
  4. Alex Colomé (RHP), 55.6%
  5. T.J. McFarland (LHP), 53%
  6. Craig Stammen, 52.6%
  7. Garrett Richards (RHP), 52.4%
  8. Bryan Shaw (RHP), 51.8%
  9. Andrew Chafin, 51.3%
  10. Jacob Barnes (RHP), 50.7%

FIP (league average — 3.86)

  1. Luke Weaver, 2.46
  2. Alex Young, 2.65
  3. Matt Moore, 2.98
  4. Andrew Chafin, 3.06
  5. David Phelps, 3.11
  6. Garrett Richards, 3.16
  7. Jackson Stephens, 3.45
  8. Michael Fulmer, 3.57
  9. Brad Hand, 3.93
  10. Darren O’Day, 4.04

Innings Pitched

  1. Matt Moore, 74
  2. Caleb Smith (LHP), 69
  3. Steve Cishek, 66 1/3
  4. Michael Fulmer, 63 2/3
  5. David Phelps, 62 2/3
  6. Hunter Strickland (RHP), 62 1/3
  7. Will Smith, 59
  8. Andrew Chafin, 57 1/3
  9. Bryan Shaw, 54
  10. Jackson Stephens/Hirokazu Sawamura (RHP), 50 2/3 each
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2022-23 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals Alex Colome Alex Young Andrew Chafin Aroldis Chapman Brad Hand Bryan Shaw Caleb Smith Chasen Shreve Craig Stammen Daniel Norris Darren O'Day David Phelps Garrett Richards Hirokazu Sawamura Hunter Strickland Jackson Stephens Jacob Barnes Joe Smith Luis Perdomo Luke Weaver Matt Moore Matt Wisler Michael Fulmer Noe Ramirez Ralph Garza Ross Detwiler Steve Cishek T.J. McFarland Will Smith Wily Peralta

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Dylan Cease Tops Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool

By Simon Hampton | December 10, 2022 at 10:15am CDT

One of the big new additions to the collective bargaining agreement signed between the league and the players was the implementation of a $50MM bonus pool set aside for players with less than three years of league service time.

The pool would be handed out to the top 100 eligible players, with MLB’s WAR metric determining which players made the list. Beyond that, further bonuses could be earned for qualified players if they ranked in the top two of Rookie of the Year, top five in MVP or Cy Young, as well as being named in the first or second All-MLB team.

According to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease topped the class in 2022, taking home a bonus of $2,457,426, in addition to his $750K base salary. Cease threw 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball for Chicago this year, finishing 2nd in AL Cy Young voting. That finish earned him $1.75MM in addition to the $707,425 he earned for his WAR ranking. 2022 was Cease’s last pre-arbitration season, so he won’t be eligible for the bonus pool after the 2023 season.

The Astros’ Yordan Alvarez was the top hitter on the list, as he took home a $2,381,143 bonus. Alvarez torched pitching to the tune of a .306/.406/.613 line with 37 home runs, finishing third in AL MVP voting. He picked up $881,143 as the top ranked player via the WAR metric, and an additional $1.5MM for his MVP finish. He also won’t be eligible for the pool next season.

Here’s the top ten bonus pool earners (all of these figures are in addition to the player’s base salary):

  • Dylan Cease: $2,457,426
  • Yordan Alvarez: $2,381,143
  • Alek Manoah: $2,191,023
  • Zac Gallen: $1,670,875
  • Julio Rodriguez: $1,550,850
  • Michael Harris: $1,361,435
  • Emmanuel Clase: $1,354,962
  • Andres Gimenez: $1,308,805
  • Adley Rutschman: $1,177,555
  • Kyle Tucker: $1,146,555

Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Atlanta’s Spencer Strider was the only other player to earn a bonus greater than $1MM, while four more players (Sean Murphy, Tommy Edman, Will Smith and Ryan Helsley) earned more than $700K, with another eleven players (Steven Kwan, Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, Nestor Cortes, Logan Webb, Shane McClanahan, Cal Raleigh, Daulton Varsho, Nico Hoerner, Triston McKenzie and Tony Gonsolin) earned a bonus greater than $500K.

Each player’s team will pay out the bonuses by December 23, but they will be reimbursed by the Commissioner’s Office.

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Chicago White Sox Collective Bargaining Agreement Houston Astros Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool Adley Rutschman Alejandro Kirk Alek Manoah Andres Gimenez Bo Bichette Cal Raleigh Daulton Varsho Dylan Cease Emmanuel Clase Julio Rodriguez Kyle Tucker Logan Webb Nestor Cortes Nico Hoerner Ryan Helsley Sean Murphy Shane McClanahan Spencer Strider Steven Kwan Tommy Edman Tony Gonsolin Triston McKenzie Will Smith Yordan Alvarez Zac Gallen

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Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: American League

By Anthony Franco | August 10, 2022 at 8:03pm CDT

Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.

Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.

Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.

Orioles

  • Jordan Lyles, SP ($11MM option, $1MM buyout)

Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.

Red Sox

  • James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)

Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)

Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.

It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.

Yankees

  • Luis Severino, SP ($15MM option, $2.75MM buyout)

Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.

Rays

  • Kevin Kiermaier, CF ($13MM option, $2.5MM buyout)

Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Blue Jays

  • Anthony Bass, RP ($3MM option, $1MM buyout)

The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.

White Sox

  • Tim Anderson, SS ($12.5MM option, $1MM buyout)

This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.

  • Josh Harrison, 2B ($5.5MM option, $1.5MM buyout)

Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.

Guardians

  • Bryan Shaw, RP ($4MM option, $500K buyout)

Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.

Twins

  • Miguel Sanó, 1B ($14MM option, $3MM buyout)

Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.

  • Sonny Gray, SP ($13.1MM option, no buyout)

Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.

  • Dylan Bundy, SP ($11MM option, $1MM buyout)

The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.

Astros

  • Will Smith, RP ($13MM option, $1MM buyout)

Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.

Athletics

  • Stephen Piscotty, RF ($15MM option, $1MM buyout)

Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.

Mariners

  • Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)

Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.

Rangers

  • Garrett Richards, RP ($9MM option, $1MM buyout)

Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.

  • José Leclerc, RP ($6MM option, $750K buyout)

Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.

  • Kole Calhoun, RF ($5.5MM option, no buyout)

The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.

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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Chicago White Sox Cleveland Guardians Houston Astros Minnesota Twins MLBTR Originals New York Yankees Oakland Athletics Seattle Mariners Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Anthony Bass Bryan Shaw Dylan Bundy Garrett Richards Hirokazu Sawamura James Paxton Jordan Lyles Jose Leclerc Josh Harrison Ken Giles Kevin Kiermaier Kole Calhoun Luis Severino Miguel Sano Sonny Gray Stephen Piscotty Tim Anderson Will Smith

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Braves, Astros Swap Will Smith For Jake Odorizzi

By Anthony Franco and Tim Dierkes | August 2, 2022 at 9:01am CDT

Aug. 2: The teams have formally announced the trade.

Aug. 1: The Astros are acquiring reliever Will Smith from the Braves for starter Jake Odorizzi, reports Mark Berman of Fox 26 (Twitter link).

Odorizzi has been seen as an expendable piece for the Astros, perhaps at least since he was left off the club’s ALDS roster last October.  He’s worked as part of a six-man rotation this year in Houston, but Lance McCullers Jr. is close to making his season debut as he recovers from a forearm strain.  The 32-year-old Odorizzi has pitched to a solid 3.75 ERA in a dozen starts for the Astros this year, averaging exactly five innings per outing.  He’s a flyball pitcher who has never been particularly adept at missing bats, but he’s been able to avoid hard hits this year to generate good results.

It would appear that Atlanta’s motivation here is to add veteran depth at the back of their rotation, which has consisted almost entirely of Max Fried, Kyle Wright, Charlie Morton, Ian Anderson, and rookie sensation Spencer Strider.  Anderson has struggled to the tune of a 4.99 ERA, while Strider has reached 80 1/3 innings on the season after pitching a career-high 94 last year.  Odorizzi’s last outing served as an excellent trade showcase for Houston – seven scoreless innings against the Mariners.  Odorizzi had injured his leg in May, knocking him out for seven weeks, and dealt with a blister before the start against Seattle.

Odorizzi’s contract is a factor here.  He’s earning $5MM this year (about $1.79MM remains) but would gain $500K upon reaching 100 innings plus $1MM each at 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 innings.  Odorizzi currently sits at 60 innings, so 120 would seem to be the likely ceiling.  Odorizzi also has a player option worth $6.5MM with a $3.25MM buyout, but as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle explains, “Odorizzi’s player option can max out at a $12.5 million base salary and a $6.25 million buyout — but only if he pitches in 30 games in which he records 12 or more outs in 2021-22.  After Sunday, Odorizzi has 29 such games across 2021-22.”  Given that the pitcher appears to have at least $3MM at stake in making one more four-inning start, it was mutually beneficial for the Astros to find a team that was more comfortable letting him reach that threshold and achieving a few performance bonuses.

Smith, 33, was the top reliever in the 2019-20 free agent class.  The Braves signed him to a hefty three-year, $40MM contract, also surrendering their second-round draft pick and $500K in international bonus pool money.  Smith’s effectiveness waned in Atlanta, as he was often done in by the longball and increasingly worse control.  He served as the Braves’ closer in the 2021 regular season to acceptable results, but then became a major factor in their postseason run with 11 scoreless innings and six saves.  Smith will forever be immortalized as the pitcher on the mound when the Braves won it all last year.

In March, the Braves signed Kenley Jansen, pushing Smith into a setup role.  Smith was at times the Braves’ third-highest leverage reliever this season, but in July he ranked seventh in that regard and was used in more of a mop-up role.  According to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, Smith would have likely been the odd man out for Atlanta once veteran reliever Kirby Yates is activated.  Smith is earning $13MM this year (about $4.6MM remains), plus he’ll be owed a $1MM buyout for 2023.

Smith joins a Houston bullpen led by Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, and Phil Maton.  None of those pitchers throw left-handed, and southpaw Blake Taylor hit the IL in June with elbow inflammation.  Smith has never been reliant on velocity, so it’s possible a fresh set of eyes on his mechanics and pitch mix, especially given the Astros’ strong reputation in that department, can right the ship.

If Odorizzi winds up with 110-119 innings, the Braves will end up paying him around $3.3MM in total.  In trading Smith, Atlanta shed a financial commitment of about $5.6MM, so they’d “gain” $2.3MM in the swap assuming they’re not including cash in the deal.  It’s possible, too, that Odorizzi falls short of 110 innings.  Money aside, this trade represents each team dealing from a surplus to better fill its needs.

It’s been a busy evening for Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, who also traded for Tigers outfielder Robbie Grossman.  Similarly, Astros GM James Click has been active today on the eve of the trade deadline, also adding catcher Christian Vazquez from Boston and first baseman Trey Mancini from the Orioles.

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Braves Activate Will Smith, Designate Scott Schebler

By Jeff Todd | August 6, 2020 at 12:04pm CDT

The Braves have activated lefty Will Smith, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. He had not yet pitched this year due to a prior coronavirus infection.

Recently acquired outfielder Scott Schebler was designated for assignment to open 40-man and active roster space. The organization also optioned righty Chad Sobotka and catcher Alex Jackson to trim down to 28 men on the active roster.

Smith inked a three-year deal over the winter after serving as the Giants’ closer. He’ll likely function in a setup role in Atlanta, pitching in front of fellow former San Francisco 9th-inning man Mark Melancon.

Schebler, 29, recorded a lone plate appearance with the Braves before being cut loose. He logged a thirty homer campaign with the Reds, so power isn’t in short supply, but he has not been a consistent on-base threat and ran out of chances in Cincinnati.

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Pitching Notes: Strasburg, Smith, Teheran, Fulmer, Marlins

By Connor Byrne | July 27, 2020 at 11:04pm CDT

Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg missed his scheduled start Saturday on account of nerve irritation in his pitching hand, but he said at the time he wasn’t “extremely concerned” about it. Manager Dave Martinez issued another update on Strasburg on Monday, saying last year’s World Series MVP threw lightly, felt better and had less tingling in his hand, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets. It’s still unclear when Strasburg will debut this season, though. Having started 1-3 during a 60-game season, the Nats need him back sooner than later.

  • In encouraging news for the Braves, left-handed closer Will Smith is no longer dealing with COVID-19 symptoms and hopes to be closing in on a return, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Smith has been down since July 4 because of the coronavirus; if he is able to pitch this year, the hope is that he’ll be a major part of Atlanta’s late-game setup. That’s what the team was banking on when it signed Smith to a three-year, $40MM contract in free agency last winter. Smith earned that payday on the heels of several strong seasons with the Royals, Brewers and Giants.
  • Speaking of Atlanta, one of its former hurlers – Angels righty Julio Teheran – continues to progress toward a 2020 debut, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic relays. Teheran, who’s recovering from his own coronavirus diagnosis, is slated to throw three innings and 55 pitches in Long Beach, Calif., on Tuesday, per pitching coach Mickey Callaway. If all goes well then, Teheran could join the Angels’ rotation. The team signed Teheran, 29, to a one-year, $9MM guarantee over the winter after a successful run in Atlanta from 2011-19.
  • The Tigers plan to use righty Michael Fulmer as an opener all year and are unlikely to let him go five to six innings in any of his appearances, pitching coach Rick Anderson revealed (via Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic). Fulmer’s a former AL Rookie of the Year winner who topped out at 164 2/3 frames in his second season in 2017, but it’s understandable that the Tigers are taking a cautious approach with him. After all, the 27-year-old is just returning from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in March 2019. He took the mound Monday for the first time since September 2018 and surrendered four earned runs on five hits in 2 2/3 innings during a blowout loss to the Royals.
  • The coronavirus has deprived the Marlins of a slew of players, leaving them to scramble for replacements, but righty prospect Edward Cabrera is not a candidate for their roster as of now, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports. Cabrera is not dealing with the virus, fortunately, but “a minor arm issue” that has stopped him from throwing over the past week, Jackson writes. The 22-year-old was tremendous last season between High-A and Double-A, combining for a stingy 2.23 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 96 2/3 innings, and is widely regarded as a top 100 prospect.
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Freddie Freeman, Touki Toussaint Cleared To Rejoin Braves

By Connor Byrne | July 17, 2020 at 1:33pm CDT

Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman and right-hander Touki Toussaint have been cleared to rejoin the club, Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets. Both players have been out since July 4 because of positive coronavirus tests. Reliever Will Smith landed on the shelf when Freeman and Toussaint did, but he hasn’t been cleared yet, per David O’Brien of The Athletic.

It’s not known how long it will take for either Freeman or Toussaint to ramp up, though manager Brian Snitker said Thursday that the Braves hadn’t yet ruled out Freeman for the Braves’ season opener on July 24. Whether or not he plays then, it’s clear Freeman’s season debut should come sooner than later, which no doubt comes as an enormous relief for the team. After all, Freeman’s a four-time All-Star who continued his reign as one of the game’s most feared hitters last season.

Toussaint doesn’t carry that type of prestigious track record, having thrown 70 2/3 innings with a 4.97 ERA/4.49 FIP and 9.81 K/9 against 5.99 BB/9 since he first reached the majors in 2018. But the 24-year-old’s a former high-end prospect whose return is a welcome one considering the need for pitching in a pandemic-shortened season. And the Braves could use the depth with Smith’s status up in the air, injured lefty Cole Hamels unlikely to be available for the start of the season, and righty Felix Hernandez having opted out of the campaign.

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Freddie Freeman, Three Other Braves Test Positive For COVID-19

By TC Zencka | July 4, 2020 at 10:43am CDT

A quartet of Atlanta Braves tested positive for COVID-19: Freddie Freeman, Pete Kozma, Touki Toussaint, and Will Smith, per Sportscaster Kelly Crull. Though the teams do not have to release the names of the players who test positive for coronavirus, in this case, the players consented to have their names released in order to spread awareness.

Smith and Toussaint are asymptomatic at this time. Freeman tested negative upon intake, but started developing symptoms before workouts were to begin, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien. Since it appears Freeman caught the virus while at Braves’ camp, this will be an important situation to track.

Not to mention, it’s possibly a blow to the Braves on-field expectations for 2020. There’s no telling how severe a case Freeman is dealing with, and even after he’s back to full health, he’ll need to pass the new protocols to return to play. Freeman, 30, is the longest-tenured member of the Braves. When he made his debut in 2010, Chipper Jones, David Ross, Derek Lowe, Jason Heyward, Tim Hudson, Craig Kimbrel, and Brian McCann were still a part of the team.

Though it seems like he’s been around forever, Freeman still produces like a superstar. He hit .295/.389/.549 even while dealing with an elbow injury that sapped him of some power.

Smith, meanwhile, could return earlier if he remains asymptomatic, but it’s important to remember that anybody appearing without symptoms who test positive could simply be pre-symptomatic, at which point there’s no telling yet what kind of timetable for a return might be. Smith was to be an important piece of Atlanta’s bullpen after joining the club from San Francisco via free agency. As the Giants’ closer last year, Smith went 6-0 with 34 saves and a 2.76 ERA/3.23 FIP over 60 games.

Toussaint had an outside shot at winning a spot in the Atlanta bullpen, though he figured to join the big league club at some point during the season as he has in each of the past two campaigns. Kozma was to serve as a depth infield option after playing all of 2019 for the Tigers’ Triple-A club.

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Teams That Gained Or Lost Draft Picks Via Qualifying Offer Free Agents

By Mark Polishuk | January 26, 2020 at 7:49am CDT

Now that Marcell Ozuna has signed, all 10 of the players who were issued a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer in November have settled on teams for the 2020 season.  Of that group, two (Jose Abreu of the White Sox and Jake Odorizzi of the Twins) accepted their qualifying offers and returned to their clubs — Abreu, in fact, topped off his QO by signing a contract extension that will run through the 2022 season.  Stephen Strasburg also isn’t changing uniforms, as the longtime Nationals ace rejected the club’s qualifying offer but eventually re-signed with Washington on a seven-year, $245MM deal.

That leaves us with seven QO players who will be playing on new teams in 2020, and as such, the draft compensation attached to those seven players has also now been allotted.  Under the rules of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the same compensation was handed out to all six teams who lost those players, as the entire sextet fell under the same financial criteria.  The Mets, Cardinals, Braves, Giants, Nationals, and Astros all aren’t revenue-sharing recipients, nor did they exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2019, so all six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft.

Here is how the so-called “Compensation Round” breaks down.  The order of the picks is determined by worst record-to-best record from the 2019 season.

68. Giants (for Madison Bumgarner)
69. Giants (for Will Smith)
70. Mets (for Zack Wheeler)
71. Cardinals (for Marcell Ozuna)
72. Nationals (for Anthony Rendon)
73. Braves (for Josh Donaldson)
74. Astros (for Gerrit Cole)

San Francisco now possesses five of the first 87 picks in next June’s draft.  With the Giants still in the NL wild card race last summer, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi opted to hang onto Bumgarner and Smith rather than trade either player, a decision that led to some criticism since San Francisco was widely considered to be closer to rebuilding than truly contending.  The critics’ judgement grew even harsher after the Giants went 22-32 record in August and September and fell well short of the postseason.  Still, given that teams were reluctant to part with top-flight young talent for even controllable players (let alone rentals like Bumgarner and Smith) at the trade deadline, Zaidi clearly felt that the two picks he could recoup from the qualifying offer process were more valuable than anything offered for the two Giants pitchers last July.

It’s worth noting that the 74th overall pick will be Houston’s first selection of the 2020 draft, after the Astros lost both their first- and second-highest selections in both 2020 and 2021 as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.  Since the Red Sox are also under league investigation for their own alleged use of electronics to steal opponents’ signs in 2018, Boston could also potentially lose at least one pick in this year’s draft, so we can’t yet say that the 2020 draft order is finalized.  Of course, the order could be further muddled if more trades occur involving picks from the two Competitive Balance Draft rounds, which are the only types of draft picks that can be traded.  We’ve already seen the Rays and Cardinals swap their picks in Rounds A and B as part of the multi-player trade that sent Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay earlier this month.

Let’s now look at the six teams who signed the seven QO-rejecting free agents, and see what those clubs had to give up in order to make the signings.

Yankees, for signing Gerrit Cole: Since New York exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2019, they gave up their second- and fifth-round picks in the 2020 draft (a.k.a. their second- and fifth-highest selections).  The Yankees also gave up $1MM in funds from their international signing bonus pool.

Diamondbacks, for signing Madison Bumgarner: As a team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and was a revenue-sharing recipient, the D’Backs had to give up their third-highest draft choice to sign Bumgarner.  This ended up being Arizona’s second-round selection — the team’s first two picks are their first-rounder (18th overall) and their pick in Competitive Balance Round A (33rd overall).

Twins, for signing Josh Donaldson: Minnesota also received revenue-sharing and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, so signing Donaldson put the Twins in position to give up their third-highest draft selection.  However, the Twins are actually giving up their fourth-highest pick in the 2020 draft, which is their third-round selection.  The Twins’ actual third selection is their pick in Competitive Balance Round B, but those picks aren’t eligible to be forfeited as compensation for QO free agent signings.

Angels, for signing Anthony Rendon: Since the Halos didn’t receive revenue-sharing funds and also didn’t pay any luxury tax money, they had to give up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K in international bonus funds to sign Rendon.

Phillies, for signing Zack Wheeler: The Phillies surrendered their second-highest selection (their second-round pick) and $500K of their international bonus pool, since they were another team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax line and didn’t receive revenue-sharing money.

Braves, for signing Will Smith and Marcell Ozuna: The dual signings put Atlanta in line for a dual penalty.  The Braves didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and also didn’t receive revenue-sharing money, so they gave up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K of international bonus money for Smith.  In landing Ozuna, the Braves then had to also forfeit their third-round pick (their third-highest selection) and another $500K from their international bonus pool.

Losing two draft picks and $1MM in international pool money isn’t nothing, though these particular sanctions had less impact on the Braves than on other teams, which undoubtedly influenced their decisions.  First of all, the compensatory pick Atlanta received for Donaldson is higher in the draft order than their third-round pick, so the net loss is only a second-round pick.  Secondly, the Braves’ movement in the international market is still limited by the punishment handed out by Major League Baseball in November 2017 for Atlanta’s past international signing violations.  Part of that punishment included the Braves’ pool for the 2020-21 international market being reduced by 50 percent — being so handcuffed in the international market anyway, the Braves probably felt $1MM in pool money was no great loss.

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2020 Amateur Draft 2020-21 International Prospects Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels Minnesota Twins New York Mets New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals Anthony Rendon Gerrit Cole Josh Donaldson Madison Bumgarner Marcell Ozuna Stephen Strasburg Will Smith Zack Wheeler

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