As an elite, in-his-prime player, Manny Machado isn’t the type of free agent who comes along very often in Major League Baseball. With that in mind, Machado (and fellow 26-year-old superstar free agent Bryce Harper) no doubt came into the offseason with designs on signing one of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted Machado would eclipse Giancarlo Stanton’s record $325MM extension from 2014. Meanwhile, FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Fancred’s Jon Heyman forecast that Machado would earn less than Stanton, but they did peg him to surpass the $275MM guarantee Alex Rodriguez received as a free agent in 2007.
While Machado may still outdo Stanton or at least Rodriguez, his childhood idol, his future earning power looks far less certain two-plus months into his trip to the open market. Free agency has been a surprisingly protracted process for Machado – who, along with Harper – remains available just a few weeks from spring training. And there has been a stunning lack of publicly reported teams after Machado, who counts the White Sox and Phillies among his most ardent suitors. Reports over the past week have indicated the White Sox issued either a seven-year, $175MM offer or an eight-year, $250MM proposal to Machado, either of which would’ve looked like a light guarantee for him at the beginning of the offseason. However, agent Dan Lozano released a strongly worded statement swatting down those rumors and insisting “reports on the details of the White Sox level of interest in Manny are completely wrong.”
Shortly after Lozano sent his denial to the media, new reports emerged suggesting serious interest in Machado stretches beyond Philadelphia and Chicago. There are supposedly two unnamed teams in the mix for Machado, and one, it seems, has put out the richest offer for the four-time All-Star infielder. Machado is reportedly primed to choose the highest bidder, but it’s unclear how close he is to signing. When the former Oriole and Dodger finally does put pen to paper, though, do you expect him to reel in a record-breaking guarantee?
(poll link for app users)
Too Manny money to sign Machado.
Too Mach dinero to sign Machado
Tumachado…it’s Italian for too much money
Tumachado about nothing
If manny and bryce sign long term contracts from highest bidder how long do you think it will be before they are demanding to be traded?
If it’s the white Sox 4 years if it’s a 9 or more year deal
Vegas has it at 2…
Looking forward to the Harper-Machado sagas ending. The coverage has been great, but let’s get these deals done & bring on Spring Training (only 25 days to pitchers-and-catchers).
Spring Training will still start without them.
Very few people seem to care where either player signs.
They’re both such insufferable jack@sses. Don’t want either on my team!
I’d rather lose than have to cheer for either of those two
No you wouldn’t rather lose.
Predicting- White Sox will sign Machado in next 2-3 days. No prediction for when & where Harper signs. Hahn did great and will get Machado on a 6-7 year deal.
Manny, Eloy Jimenez, Moncada, Tim Anderson, Palka, Luis Robert, Madrigal and several other young outfielders, pitchers and catchers ready for a nice run hopefully.
If he gets $35M a year for 8 years that’s $280M… thats more than any team wants to pay but less than he wants… that’s the reason that’s what he will sign for..
I dont see the White Sox adding another 100 million dollars for one additional year on their original offer.
Will CWS go to $35mm per?
Big time FAs don’t play for the WS, there’s a reason for it too.
Being?
Oh, maybe the slim prospect of actually winning?
Giants should go after Arenado, move Longoria to 1st.
And move Brandon Belt where?
Colorado’s not trading Arenado unless they’re out of contention.
They would have to at least consider it if presented with a ridiculous offer.
They would, but what do the Giants have to give that could be considered “Ridiculous”…???
Answer: Not Much Compared To Other Clubs.
The Padres could easily blow away any Giants’ offer, and not kill their farm system.
So could the Yankees.
So could the Cardinals (but they won’t…..they hate trading their prized prospects….lol…)
Thank you. The only way Colorado trades Nolan is if they don’t have a prayer at the post-season before the deadline.
or they can just dump Longoria because he is declining
He broke his hand last year. That’s hard to come back from especially in a new league. Funny, most people feel their team should sign Machado and Harper until their 37 age season, but freak out when someone’s 33.
I absolutely DON’T think my team should sign Harchado for a contract that lasts until until they’re 37. The last 2-3 years are probably going to be dead money.- for any player.
Given all the data we have about aging curves, IMHO it takes a great deal of hubris for players (and agents) to be asked to get paid that long and later into their careers based on their PAST performance.
I absolutely think players should be paid more earlier in their careers, and the players are going to have to fight like h*** to get paid they way should be paid earlier in their careers. However, their seems to be a price (literally) that players are going to pay the next couple of years.
Don’t be surprised at a labor stoppage after the current CBA expires.
Giants don’t have enough to land Arenado.
They have nothing to trade
You said it.
Bart would be a beautiful starting piece so I wouldn’t wouldn’t say the Giants don’t have the pieces
I think Manny and Bryce should sit down and make a deal….that way the furloughed government workers can get back to work…….I may be a bit confused here…..
Haha actually lol’ed at this one ^
….wow. What I wouldn’t give to be so easily entertained
Am I the only one who is now hoping Machado and Harper have the worst year of their career? Batting .225 works for me
I agree! Too much money especially when people, many people are living week to week.
I see. You advocate socialism. Good to know.
Actually proposed redistribution of the owners wealth is far more akin to socialism
Revenue sharing isn’t socialism?
Not to mention that unless you’re in the 1%, being against socialism doesn’t make a lot of sense.
The socialist aspects of our current society pay for our roads, schools, and hospitals. Attitudes like yours are part of the reason they’re so dysfunctional and criminally underfunded.
Don’t be so scared of socialism, it’s the literal basis of society: people working together for the benefit of the entire community.
That’s all, back to sports…
Exactly, socialism in this country has long existed for the wealthy – bank bailouts and big government contracts – paid for by your and my taxes and huge deficits.
Is there a country that socialism worked out for? Honestly, I can’t think of any and am curious.
Scandinavia and China have done quite well.
Harper and Machado making less money will have zero impact on how much money is in the game. It will just mean the owners have even more.
It’s the owners who employ hundreds, continuously reinvest into the franchise and stadium. The player employs nobody. The market determines the players salary, not the agent
The owners wouldn’t be doing those things if they weren’t making money hand over fist. Players also pay agents, trainers, chefs, dieticians etc.
Many teams are not making money hand of over fist – hence revenue sharing
Unfortunately, they still get their money which is what it’s about. And owners won’t learn and will still offer outlandish money to Betts and other future free agents.
Betts probably deserves it more than Machado or Harper.
understatement of the day
I would not sign either player to those sums.
You would if they generate more than they cost. No one here actually knows how much a player generates in revenue for a team. Research shows that either of them could be at least an initial 60 million dollar surge in value/revenue to a team. If so, a signing would be a wise and profitable venture.
I always said he’s getting 8/240.
How much money for Machado?
50 cents! Why do I say 50 cents, because then I could declare
I ain’t paying no 50 cents for No Machado!!!
Let Machado go play for the KBO or Japanese League
They might appreciate that marvelous attitude of his more over there.
Good one… have you ever considered a career in standup?
Interest in Harper and Machado is almost non existent. If an acceptable offer was there, a deal would be done.
I will predict 150-200 milion when he signs
Bor-asss has his shorts in a twist. He expected teams to just “roll over” when Bryce was a FA…..and they haven’t.
Same for Lozano and Machado.
“Acceptable Offer” is key to your comment. There are offers, I’m sure….but the Agents are saying “Wait…we’ll get you more”………..
Pitchers and catchers report in about 26 days. Time is running out. Other teams will take a last-minute shot at them, because even THOSE offers will be “Less Than Originally Thought”. Why wouldn’t they?
Any team that was even considering 10/295 on Stanton, can easily afford either of these guys…..because they are both a better bet to continue to produce in the future.
Don’t be surprised if some team that hasn’t been in the mix, swoops in and signs him at a bargain price.
Bad prediction. They’ll both surpass 200+ million, probably closer to 300 with options.
Can anyone build a case that Harper could possibly be worth more than Machado?
I’ll put Machado at 7 years and $220M. Harper at 7 years and $180M.
Seriously?! Merchandise/marketing alone and Harper is the clear favorite.
For a poor fielding, inconsistent, power hitting corner outfielder???
Harper sells more. Better/bigger brand.
Harper is worth more than MM, long-term.
Harper is also top 5 RF’er
You said top 5 RF’er. Hahaha! The least important position on the field! Your not helping your cause.
Bad prediction, you’re going to look foolish in a few weeks.
In a pure baseball sense-Machado is better- much more consistent offensive weapon and an elite defender at 3rd. Harper is year to year in regards to what you will get and a consistently bad fielder out where the dandelions grow. Even as Machado ages, he could easily slide to first. Harper needs to be on an AL team because who on earth would ever trust a guy who can’t play right to play first? A bad first baseman can handicap any infield.
Now if you simply don’t like Machado, very understandable!
I agree they won’t get what they want but there’s no way Harper signs for that little money. Also I’m not buying the argument Machado is better than Harper. The numbers don’t tell that story.
Harper is worth more. He doesn’t have the conditioning problems. He doesn’t have the glaringly obvious character issues and Harper’s bat is far better than Machado’s.
7yr/21M is resonable price. I think
What the heck are the Phillies doing? Make your offers! More time goes by, the more interested parties rationalize a blockbuster move. If they lose out on both because they wanted to save 20 million…
Just guessing here, but I suspect there is a considerable gap between the Phils and Harper, and closing the gap will not be easy.
The Phillies probably want Trout when he’s a free agent. He’s the one who will get the big big bucks. Machado and Harper are elite but flawed. Teams are wary of both of them at the money they’re asking for for good reason
Where is the “wouldn’t sign him for $0 vote?”
Where is the vote for “letScoreSomeRuns” makes dumb comments?
Got my vote.
There is no questioning Manny Machado’s talent. He has it. However, you give $200+ million dollar contracts to guys who can carry a team and he hasn’t proved that he can. He’s a selfish primadonna and he’s no kind of leader. 7/$175m is already very generous for the complimentary type of player he is.
He’ll get closer to 35 a year lol
Only if he signs a shorter term deal
Mike Trout can’t “carry a team”. What makes you think any MLB can? This isn’t the NBA.
8/250 with multiple opt outs
Closer to 35 a year and maybe
It’s also a huge ego game with the two agents. Nobody wants to go first.
There’s probably a fair amount of truth to that. Last thing that, say, Harper wants to do is sign a deal only too see Machado sign for $30m more next week
Given he can (poorly) play a premium position he has a little more value than someone like harper..
I’d say 10/300 would be the top end.. but i could see a smaller market team or a team trying to stay under caps… working some contract magic with contingent opt-outs, vesting options and team/mutual options beyond 10 years along with some defferred payments maybe front loaded that sort of thing.
But on the other side… guys not Trout.. never been much more of a 6fwar type, character concerns and really not a very good fielding short stop.. he likely still has a lot of career left.. so… who knows, maybe this is just the beginning.
How would any of us randos know how much he’ll get?
Coming back home to San Diego! Machado, Tatis Jr, Urias, and the Hozz will be the greatest defensive infield since the 1987 Blue Jays. Ordering my Machado jersey right now!
What is certain, at this point, is Machado will get far less than Harper. Machado’s strange behavior with LA seems to have wrecked his market value. I say strange because he showed us ugliest side prior to free agency—not smart. I still think he’s a perfect fit for the White Sox, so I hope they sign him.
I doubt it. He plays a premium position and is a more consistent hitter. 35 a year I’m guessing.
The Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers aren’t pursuing him even though they have needs at his positions. That tells you a lot about how teams view him. How would Machado get monster deal if the richest teams are sitting on the sidelines?
It amazes me how people know how dirty of a player Machado is but still perfectly fine with him on their team. It was embarrassing watching him in the post season. “STRANGE” is the new PC word for POS huh? He is who he is. He didn’t just start last year acting that way.
as a fan i (as does anyone) have the perogative to not care about a player’s baggage when they help the team. no one remember the days when we liked “dirty” players because of the entertainment value they gave us? nowadays players are such gentlemen that we flip when a player defends the town in which they play. (Yadi) if he does somthing truely scornful let him get suspended or whatever. but I’m not gonna ignore 5.0 wins a year just because he stepped on a guy’s foot while playing a game for our entertainment.
Or his long back swing hitting the catcher or his slides grabbing at the infielder trying to turn a double play. Haven’t heard anyone coming out defending him on being a good teammate either. There’s “dirty” and then there’s Machado.
“Haven’t heard anyone coming out defending him on being a good teammate either”
“He’s a good teammate. He’s an even better player,”
~Zach Britton
“I’ll stand by my comment — he’s the best person I know in this game,”
~Steve Pearce
“I know he’s a good teammate,”
~Delin Betances
@cat
I was referring to Dodger players but good job on pulling up 3 players out of the many he has been teammates with over the years. I would also question if those statements were after this season or before. I can safely say there’s more Dodger players and fans that are happy to see him gone then on the roster.
C’mon, you had to laugh a little typing the comment from Pearce. Out of the 3 comments I would’ve left that one out. Especially if it was after the season was over.
LetsScoreSomeRuns
All I did was copy the first 3 I found which didn’t take long. Can you find 3,”out of the many he has been teammates with over the years” that say he isn’t a good teammate? I’ll wait
I don’t need to prove anything. Dudes shown enough in the half season with the Dodgers. Again, were those 3 comments before or after this year? Press the scroll button down where you found the comments, betcha won’t find any positive comments after this season.
Again you said…Haven’t heard anyone coming out defending him on being a good teammate either”. You didn’t say any Dodgers, you didn’t say after this season. I didn’t look as to when they said it but since you seem unwilling/unable to search a quote since it doesn’t fit you stance I will give you the dates of the bylines
Zach Britton January 11, 2019 APNews
Steve Pearce Mon, Oct 22, 2018 at 7:14PM nesn
Delin Betances November 13, 2018 10:15 PM Newsday
There is one and only one reason I did not post 3 link. Each time im the past that I have posted 3 or more links in one comment the comment goes to “pending review” mode.
If you don’t believe the quotes….Google them.
Amazing
I would hate to see what Pearce considers a bad teammate.
Since your response indicates you didn’t read more that I provided here’s more and the link. I can see how a “dirty play” can make a player unpalatable to fans…not sure how it makes him a bad teammate….anyways……
“That’s why it’s really shocking to me when I see everything that’s going on,” Pearce said. “I’m like, ‘Man, Manny. What are you doing? Come on, man.’ I’m probably going to hang out with him three or four times during this series, because he’s one of my best friends in the game. I love the guy. When I see what’s going on, I kind of want to wonder why, what’s the disconnect, what’s going on, because he’s not that guy. He’s not. He’s better than that.”
nesn.com/2018/10/steve-pearce-has-wildly-different…
Yes you’re right. If you’re spending this much time defending Machado on what he has shown on the field, we are not going to see eye to eye on this. When you step out on that field you’re representing yourself and your team. It was embarrassing what he did during the post season. Never in BLUE!
Actually I’m not a Manny enthusiast, I was just showing that teammates had indeed called him a good teammate I will say that I hope if the Phillies sign one of him or Harper I would prefer Manny for several reasons.
Situational need, the infield defense was terrible and he did say he would move back to third if the price is right. Secondly is consistency, Bryce has too many peaks and valleys.
It amazes me that Manny gets called out on the lack of hustle and a great many have posted the Harper always hustles which is far, far from the truth. It’s also far from the truth that they are the only two who fail to run it out to 1B.
The big difference is Machado’s statement which he later clarified. There will always be some how dog it to 1B. I don;t like it either but I also don’t like “fake hustle” like Manny stated. I’m a Phillies fan stuck in AZ and I hated Eric Byrnes fake hustle (aka showboating) of doing a flip almost every time he had to though to home. That is the kind of thing he was talking about IMO.
BTW searches do not take much time with the right keywords and neither does pulling up history after searching. It takes more time to explain it all
As an O’s fan, other than the incident with Pedroia which seemed more like an accident to non Red Sox fans, I don’t remember a lot of dirty player talk about Machado until he got traded. Going to the Dodgers seemed to bring out the worst him. My criticism of Machado as an Oriole fan was I always thought his bat was kinda overrated. He’s Adrian Beltre not ARod. Very good but not close to being a generational player.
What this and last year’s off season have shown is, it’s not quite as profitable to go into free agency as it used to be. More teams are building their core through their systems and trades as opposed to shopping in free agency for cornerstone players. Players like Arenado, Goldy and others, sans Trout, may be more willing to extensions with their current team as opposed to prolonged negotiations as a free agent and/or lack of interest from teams.
Organizations now rely heavily on analytics and flaws in a player’s game are not as readily overlooked.
That’s what the owners and their front offices want players to think. I doubt the players buy that, though. Get ready for a lockout once the current CBA expires. Personally, I think EVERYONE is tired of the current system as it stands.
I’d say there is a 50/50 chance that there is a strike or lockout. There are definitely things that need to change. Like the QO, amount of years teams have control over players when they first come up, the Super 2 status, floor caps, minor league compensation and much more. Personally, i don’t believe the MLBPA has the leadership in place to get a square deal, at this point. It’s going to get testy and the media will love that.
Good post. I think what needs to change is that the really elite young players need to get paid more money in their first three seasons. Mike Trout should have been paid a lot more money his first few seasons based on the numbers he put up. The poorer teams would struggle with this though, that’s the problem
8/$888.88
$50
Anybody else think that there’s a good chance that Machado or Harper (or possibly both) end up having to take a 2 year, high AAV contract and re-enter FA at the age of 28? I think they both could end up having to look at that, but neither should do it……..they should take whatever they can get this winter, and here’s why…….
1. Trout could be a FA after the 2020 season. Do they want to compete with him for a huge payday? Doubtful
2. The New CBA will take effect after 2021. Who knows what that will bring, and the risk of shorter contracts is a possibility.
3. They could suffer another injury (both have had some issues with that), and that could affect their ability to sign a huge deal.
4. There is a Ton of Talent about to graduate from the Minors. That, plus the influx of players from the International Market causing a “supply & demand problem” for older players. From a production standpoint…..and considering the cost to sign them………are Manny & Bryce REALLY that much more productive than the young stars that are cheap as dirt?
Great point
Machado to Yankees putting them over luxury tax and unable to sign any more players. Harper to Phillies.
$250M/7 with options.
Bold prediction: Manny gets 8/220
I think the 8/275MM is the right offer and no one should go beyond that. He’d be 34/35 at the end and probably a DH. It’s been proven you can trade big contracts Cano/Stanton so a club can move him at age 30/32 and he’d probably be 15th highest paid player by then.
$10.00
id be perfectly content issuing manny a $275 million contract, given how much he was projected to get.
I think the White Sox deal is as much as Manny gets. I could be proven wrong between today and spring training.
Well … that money is insane. But I guess that’s where they are now. There isn’t a significant difference statistically between MM and Suarez from the Reds. Suarez signed for something like 75 million for 5 or 6 years. What a bargain. But he loves playing in Cincy. What a Value when you compare their actual numbers
“Heres the world”, “Meh, I want the universe cuz my predecessor had the world..”
Bet on yourself… 3/105-120 range…
then sign a huge 8 year deal if the market bounces back and starts paying out on long term… you might be able to get 40 mil/yr by then…
OR… frontload the contract…
50 45 45 40 35 35 25 25 25 25 = 10/350
Last 4 years would be much easier to stomach as he gets older… or easier to trade
Except that he is worth no where near that. The max I’d go is 7 – 8 anyway, but 35-50/season? No way.
Time to float another “mystery team” rumor.
MLB is not the NBA. One position player does not make a significant impact. Plus, you can easily find 80% of Machado’s production at 1/8th the cost. Compound that with Manny’s lack of hustle just makes for an easy “pass”.
The lack of hustle is the big red flag for me. What is a team going to do in years 6 – 10 of the 10 year deal that Manny wants, when he’d making big bucks and is lolly gagging, refusing to hustle to make up for the almost certain decline in his skill and athletic ability?
This.
Wages across America are declining. Yet all of these white silver spooned players complaining like living off half a million bucks to play baseball is slave labor. Longorias contract is the perfect example why not to pay someone yet he actually opens his mouth? Bye bye gimp. Maybe the Dodgers will sign you off of waivers.
Neither player will sign long term (4 years of more) deals. Neither player will be offered more than $200 million. Harper won’t sign long term at that because he’ll look ridiculous for turning down the Nats. Machado won’t sign for that either.
So my belief is that they’ll both punt and take short term deals with the mistaken justification, believed or not, that next year may be much different. I’d put them both at 1 year 28 million.
The market changed last year. Long term sucker deals are ones teams now try to dump, not sign.
I call it the Pujos Effect. The other 29 Owners & GM won’t follow in Arte Moreno’s footsteps and lock any player for 10 years.
But Pujols was like 32 when they signed him. Very different than being 26 yrs old…..
For some odd reason there has been way too value attached, and way too much stock in “his age”.
Honestly, there have been two major components that the pundits fail to discuss.
1). Back in the old days of 2005, the view was “franchise player” and “icon” and stuff of that nature. Everyone was running to sign these guys to play with them for the rest of their career. What few fail to mention about Machado, despite his immense talent and production, is that he is not that player. He doesn’t have the cache of an A Rod or Bonds, etc. He’s also not that quintessential franchise player type – someone who might not fill more seats. Which brings me to the 2nd point.
2). Whether anyone wants to admit it or not, and it’s part of a much larger conversation that no one is discussing, is that we are staring down a recession most likely in the coming years. This is a very real concern and don’t think for a moment the owners, most of which have fortunes and assets in the billions aren’t considering this, because they absolutely are. I read the commentary from Tom Ricketts and some other owners and I can’t help but read between the lines that almost all teams are exercising extreme financial austerity right now. Look at the Yankees, one of the most active teams in the free agent market in 2019 and they’ve barely gone more than 3 years on any deal.
What we need to face is that we are in a time where the traditional process of free agency is going through wholesale change. Boras and other agents have to become more creative. Teams just frankly don’t want too, which I agree with, sign any player long-term any longer. I’ve long felt that it was a bad investment for these businesses.
I could see one of Machado or Harper taking a 3 year deal for $120MM at $40M per year.
Thank you baseball385, those are intelligent comments. Deals like Ellsbury, Pujols are why teams put much more emphasis into building a talent base rather than buying one. The brilliance of the Didi trade for the Yankees, or the Boegarts int’l signing for the RS is that they avoid paying fortunes to players like this.
I agree with your comments about franchise players. The opportunity to be one for Harper came and went in Washington. I have to think that owners think about Harper “here’s a guy with 1..3 bWAR who turns down 300 mil from his own team. Do I want that guy?’. A gentlemen’s bet that neither reaches 40 mil aav?
At the time, passing on 10/300 seemed like a wise thing to do to test the FA waters.
Three months later, not so much. If Harper is forced back to DC, he might have to accept something like 6/200, which is a higher AAV but puts him on the market again at 32 y.o., not exactly where he wants to be.
I think it’ll go a little something like this….
10 year contract $260 mil
Yr 1 $40 mil
2 40 mil
3 40 mil
4 40 mil
Opt out option
5 25 mil
6 25 mil
Opt out option
7 15 mil
8 15 mil
Opt out / Performance based team (must play 120 games previous year?)
9 10 mil
10 10 mil
lol pretty much a copy from a pirates fan site, only for a only for a bit less money.
I don’t see a ten-year deal happening at all.
Is there ever a time or conversation where the GM who is hoping to sign one of these talents, responds to their demand of “I want more than that guy cuz I’m better.” with “the guy that made up that contract doesn’t have a GM job in baseball anymore.”? (Doug Melvin and Dan Jennings)
Also, correct me if I’m wrong, but when Stanton signed his deal, wasn’t he was coming off a MVP runner up season? Did Manny or Bryce have any nominations this past season?
How many titles do you want to win? Not how many dollars do you want to spend should be the driving force behind the players motivation. I realize the agents are driven to up the bar and set new records, but these two guys don’t deserve to be the highest paid players in the game today. In my humble opinion.
$1 Billion
AAV will be around $30 mil but he won’t get more then 5-7 years with an opt out.
Would the Angels sign both Harper and Machado?
The 175MM reportedly offered by the White Sox seems too much but it’s America, some sports salaries well it’s just delusional!
Manny signs 8 year $200 million deal with White Sox, Harper signs 8 year $300 million with Phillies. Phillies are waiting for Mike Trout to become FA, so they can offer him biggest contract in baseball.
Why would the Phils sign Harper now only to make a run at Trout in a couple of years? That would be ~$600MM for two players. They cannot afford both.
Also, has Middleton said anything about how much the Phils want to go in terms of years or dollars? 8/300 seems like an overpay.
Ron I will wager you a subscription to MLBTR that Harper does not get a guaranteed 300 mil. That’s an easy bet. Ship. Sailed.
These contract signings are likely to drag on awhile. JD Martinez signed Feb 26th, 2018 with the Red Sox. It was $110 million for 5 years. Sounds like a bargain compared to these 2019 contract expectations.
Hard to make it today with only 250 to 350 million guaranteed income. That said I’m tired of hearing about it, looking forward to spring training and the games.
As a fan for over 55 years all this does is make me less interested.
When the under option gets 68% and the over gets 2% from the website that everyone blames for inflating contract expectations…
LoL,
Not doing yourself any favors. especially not considering the lowball option is a full 100 million above the only public offer so far.
I don’t care anymore. Get it over. Especially when Machuddo says he is signing for the most $$. Ok then go to some historically bad team and enjoy the rest of your career. How 10 years of losing was worth 30 million
Just because he’s one of the best available free agents this offseason doesn’t make him an elite ball player. I’d give him 5-7 years at no more than $22 million per and that AAV is on the ultimate high side for me when it comes to Manny. He just ain’t all that.
Eugenia Suarez hit 34 hr, 104 rbi in 2018. He just signed a 66 mil, 7 yr deal with the Reds in 2018 as a ss/ 3rd baseman. Wow!
Eugenio Suarez
This Just in Machado to the Mets.
I bet the team that signs him will have a very happy manager. Nothing like penciling in 35 plus hr, 100 plus rbi at shortstop. Manny has a long track record of slugging ability.
True that! Plus there’s little risk of him going out with a pulled hammy since he refuses to run at any level beyond a moderate trot. What’s the point of running hard when you can just stomp on the 1st baseman’s ankle after inadvertently missing the bag?
How much? How much stupid money you got?
I don’t understand anyone who thinks Machado or Harper is not worthy of a $200 million contract.
-Both guys are only 26, so, for instance, a 7-year pact would only take them to age 33.
-Machado has three seasons of 6+ WAR. Harper only has one due to injuries, but that one was a 9.3. Whatever $/WAR value you would use, both guys deserve to get paid. A lot.
-The question of whether either guy should be considered a “superstar” is irrelevant.
-It’s rare for players with their combination of age and pedigree to hit the open market.
Something like 6/210 or 7/230 I think would be fair given how a majority of those years would be covered by their prime/near-prime.
At 26, they might even improve some.
Aging curves say, “no”.
Sorry SheaGoodbye, but I am not buying the “only” 33. Every aging curve graph I’ve searched for on the net says they’ll be 4 – 5 years into their decline by then.
This one at Fangraphs indicates that (on average) they’ve go 2 more years of peak production before they start to slip.
library.fangraphs.com/the-beginners-guide-to-aging…
By age 32 they’ll be performing at a level %20 below where they are now. If I see it, so do all the FO’s they want to offer them 10 year+ contracts.
You know who Machado reminds me of? Vernon Wells – a guy who had 2 good years after the age of 27.
20% worse from a 6 WAR level would be 4.8 WAR. How is that a problem, exactly?
And I never said either player would be worth going 8+ years for. 6 years is what I would target, as it’s highly unlikely either guy would be willing to sign for less than that.
Miguel Cabrera’s slugging percentage exploded after his age 26 season. 600 plus!
@68tigers84 –
Manny Machado’s career SLG and OPS through age 25: .487/.822
Miguel Cabrera’s career SLG and OPS through age 25: .541/.921
There.is.no.comparison.
I was’nt comparing them. I was just using Miguel as an example that good players sometimes improve after age 26. Miguel never had any seasons slugging over 600 until after his age 26 season.
Point taken – but let me ask, is an .822 career OPS a “superstar” like the writers and media keep telling us, or is it akin to a more ordinary player, especially if he insists on playing SS and diminishes his defensive value?
His first 3 seasons were in the 700’s, so that number is a poor indication of his current talent. I do wonder how his Camden Yards stats translate to other parks. His 300 plus TB base seasons tend to spotlight his talent.
Harper has .900 ops totals. But that’s padded by his high walk totals. His TB stats are much lower than Mannys. Having your slugger walking all the time isn’t the best thing.