In the weeks since the White Sox made a reported seven-year offer to Machado, several followup reports have pegged the offer’s value as closer to $200MM than to $300MM. Now, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via Twitter) that the exact value of Chicago’s offer to Machado is $175MM over seven years — a $25MM annual value.
Postseason comments and villainy aside, it’s surprising that Machado’s market has been so limited to this juncture — particularly when the apparent top bid for his services as a 26-year-old isn’t all that much greater than the $144MM for which Eric Hosmer signed a year ago when at the age of 28. Frankly, the reported size of the offer makes it all the more stunning that the Yankees, on the heels of a 100-win season, are seemingly content to entrust the shortstop position to a Troy Tulowitzki reclamation project and the hope that Didi Gregorius can seamlessly bounce back from Tommy John surgery.
Looking around the league, it’s jarring yet that teams who could fairly easily accommodate Machado haven’t made an effort to top that offer. The total value of Chicago’s offer to Machado checks in south of the Twins’ $184MM commitment to Joe Mauer, who retired earlier this winter. Minnesota doesn’t have a single dollar on the books beyond the 2019 campaign. The Brewers promised Ryan Braun a $21MM annual salary through his age-36 season nearly eight years ago, and Braun’s deal is off the books after the 2020 season. (Of course, if there’s one team that Machado have alienated more than any last October, it’s likely the Brewers.) The Angels and Mets are both at least $40MM south of the luxury tax threshold. Other clubs like the Cardinals, Cubs and Dodgers could potentially move some internal pieces around to fit Machado, and the Phillies are of course a clear fit that could handily top that sum. Even a team like the Padres, still emerging from a rebuild and more earnestly eyeing contention in 2020, could reasonably top an offer of that magnitude. (San Diego did, after all, sign a far lesser player in Hosmer a year ago.)
As Olney notes, the White Sox’ approach looks to be a mirror image of how the Red Sox pursued J.D. Martinez last winter. Boston made Martinez a $100MM offer early in the winter and waited him out, knowing that he lacked other suitors. That, of course, led Boston to a $110MM deal with Martinez that, while nine figures in value, proved to be one of the offseason’s best values. It’s more understandable, though, that Martinez would have a limited market given the fact that most clubs viewed him as a pure designated hitter who could only handle sporadic outfield work.
Machado’s “Johnny Hustle” comments and his deliberate kick of Jesus Aguilar at first base during the NLCS undoubtedly soured his image in the eyes of some owners (quite likely the aforementioned Brewers), but it’s nevertheless eye-popping that interest has been this tepid. While it’s true that many, if not most free-agent deals of seven-plus years in length end up as albatrosses in their latter years, Machado is four to five years younger than most free agents who signed those contracts and can reasonably be expected to provide more value as a result — particularly in the first half of a contract, which should be comprised entirely of prime-aged seasons.
Generally speaking, team-side aversion to those mega-contracts has clearly risen in recent years, though some clubs have moved toward shorter contracts at higher annual values in an effort to pay a higher premium for up-front value while mitigating some long-term downside. That, however, isn’t even the case in Chicago’s pursuit of Machado. The $25MM annual value of the proposal is hardly insignificant, but it’s also far from the top-of-the-scale annual rate one might expect for a player of Machado’s caliber and age.
Olney wonders whether the Yankees may ultimately circle back in if Machado’s market fails to progress — be it in the form of an increased offer from the Pale Hose or the emergence of another suitor. Given that the currently proposed deal would only run through Machado’s age-32 season, it’s hard to imagine that some team wouldn’t be willing to top it. Then again, few would’ve believed at the onset of free agency that Machado’s top offer in mid-January would be sitting at its current level.
Hahahahaha, crazy! May have to do a lot better then that
Maybe, but there doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of other offers..
Pretty sure he could get.a 1-year, 30+ million from somebody and try again next season
He’ll still be younger than most free agents and in his theoretical prime.
That won’t happen
Because?
True, but then he might have direct competition for a contract with Arenado (assuming he doesn’t work something out with the Rockies long term).
Even then he could easily get 25 million AAV for 7 years.
You say that which is kind of funny because the same thing was said this year and look at where we are at.
Or he could have another season like he did just the year before last, and end up with a four year deal worth half as much per year. Teams haven’t learned from the deals like Prince Fielder, Pablo Sandoval, and others. If the south-siders want to give Machado nearly 25 mil a year long-term, for a guy that himself essentially said he isn’t the type to give it his all, then as the old saying goes…. “Good luck with that.”
If you actually believe that this is the best offer Machado got you are dumber than your posts lead us to believe.
Last year Olney said that Hosmer had no offers over 5/80. What happened?
And Rendon
You just said,teams haven’t learned from previous deals. But isn’t that EXACTLY what they’re showing (so far)? A little restraint & not going full monopoly money on the big 2 is a welcome sight,at least to this point.
A lot of money on the table. He might as well wait it out until spring training if he thinks he’s worth more.
They also reported last year that Moustakas had offers, but he himself said he didn’t. It’s all about the hype…. and it works because it’s a loooong off-season for those of us that long for anything baseball-related.
He could and then prove he is Johnny Hustle. Maybe then he could improve on his atrocious SS defense.
he IS worth more. double+
May not be for 30+ million, but that seems to fit the pattern. Makes sense for both ends, too–teams in the current market do not seem to care for committing too much money for too long on a single player, even if they have to pay extra in the short term. The eventual contract may be a “multi-“year contract, but may include an opt out after one year.
Bird in hand.
Mets?
Because you assume that next year will be better for FAs. I don’t think anything will change until the next agreement (which will probably follow a strike) will emerge in 2021, and by that time, many FAs will leave plenty of money on the table. Most chances he’ll take the best available offer and try to sweeten the deal with player opt outs. Harper is set to follow with a similar offer as well (no more “crushing the Stanton contract” dreams).
Why try next season? Who would pay him more in a year? Once the Yankees dropped out, Manny’s market was gone. It’s as simple as that.
Remember when MLBTR predicted 13yr/$390m for Manny?!?!! Hilarious.
Anyone with a choice would take Arenado over Machado anyway. And Manny would probably have compensation attached if he did this again in a year. The bottom line is that nobody trusts Manny with a contract longer than 7 years. You can argue about the AAV, but it’s hard to find any good reason to go beyond that many years.
But then that’s an entire year in 2019 that he’ll need to give maximum effort. If he bags that 7-year deal now, it’s slack off time immediately!!
Why would that help him? He’s coming off an All Star season and would have draft pick compensation attached. If teams aren’t already convinced on him, another All Star year won’t change anything.
The better question is why would he not
He could settle for less money and less years than he wants and be stuck with a disappointing contract… Or he could take the money and take his chances
If he has any confidence in himself at all, he’s a fool to take this deal.
Opt-out benefits the player and the player alone.
Again, the offers aren’t going to be better next year when he’s a year older and has a QO attached. If he was coming off a down year you might have a case but he was an All Star in 2018.
All he has to do next season is hit, which he seems to be pretty good at. He also has name recognition, so being an all star at this point has little to do with performance anyway
This is 60 percent of what he was looking for when the off season started, taking it and throwing away his prime years on that is just silly
He’s not taking the first offer anyway. But he’s also not sniffing anything close to the 13/$390m that was predicted on here. I don’t know where they came up with that one.
He’s far too desirable to have to settle for a 1 year deal. This isn’t some mediocre player like Grandal. Machado is one of the best. It’s just that nobody can trust him long-term. If he were looking for a 4-5 year deal, he’d have offers all over the place. Teams don’t want to go beyond that anymore, and for good reason.
Why would he not? Because he has $25M/yr on the table, which would make him the 4th highest paid position player in baseball this year. I get it – this contract is low, and it’s significantly less than he thought he’d get, but let’s stop acting like it’s an embarrassment of an offer. In context, without the ridiculous predictions, it’s not anywhere near bad enough to make a pillow contract a smart idea. The market isn’t getting any better for him next year. The best he can hope for, outside of the obvious idea of negotiating up from here, is something with an opt-out going into the next CBA. That way he has a boatload of guaranteed money, and he can try again IF the player’s association fixes what’s going on. That’s MUCH smarter than giving up the security of a multi-year deal.
This offer is reason why Machado WILL NOT sign with my beloved White Sox. The money will have to at least be of the 30 million per year offer. If ChiSox or any other team hits that mark then game is on. I’m hoping everyday that “Johnny Hustle” signs with ChiSox. I guarantee not every player in MLB goes full out 100% of the time. I’d be willing to bet 99.99% don’t. A player will not run full speed to 1st base on a grounder the pitcher catches before batter gets out of batters box. You can see it happen every game.
But he already hit in 2018. If he hits in 2019, it wouldn’t show GM’s anything they didn’t already know. Plus he’d be a year older and have the QO attached.
The comparison to Mauer’s deal is exactly the reason why. No one expected Mauer to have the problems he ended up with. There was always risk (especially as a C) due to the length of contract. But no one ever accused Mauer of not hustling.
Yup..but then why risk $150M for just the extra $25M at the end?
Because taking the 150 means you don’t have a prayer at anything more, that should be painfully obvious
Settling for the first bad offer because hey, life is risky, leaves you saddled with the bad offer
He could get J.D. Martinez’s deal for sure with no problem. Teams aren’t worried about Machado now. They are worried about him 7-8 years from now when his talent starts to deteriorate and he has to rely on grit, hustle and heart of which he’s shown little. Teams are deathly scared of giving guys contracts who set a bad example for the younger bunch.
Hate to throw my fried chicken and beer loving Sox under the bus, but that was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Its ok to have a down year. Its not ok to have a down year or go through long slumps because your head and your heart is elsewhere.
There’s a reason guys like J.D. Martinez just kept getting better as they hit their 30’s and others fall off. Sometimes its injury and misfortune, but quite often its being uninspired until its too late. The grind wears on guys, some faster then others. Spending too much time in Baltimore on a losing team may have worn on him and gotten him into bad habits rather than a genuinely poor attitude, but I know I don’t want that risk in Boston. Not at a 10 year $300 million dollar deal that will be tough to get out of if instincts are right. I’ve seen first hand what kind of trickle down effect uninspired superstars can have on younger players back in 2011-2012.
I am not saying Machado in 2018 and with his age is not a $350+ million dollar talent. He 100% is. One of the best in the league. But I genuinely worry about him post-33. Not all players. Specifically Machado. Harpers lack of a huge market confuses me much more.
This is a flat out message to the players and Machado is the example. They aren’t going to pay you for your past talent anymore. They are going to pay for what you can do in the future. Your past talent mearly starts the discussion.
The problem is that teams are worried about the “now” with Machado. He hit under 260 a year ago. And was finally in the prime time this year in the playoffs and his true colors shined. Not only did he admit to not hustling but he was stepping on players ankles, literally. I think he is a great talent, but I also see how much of a detriment he can be to a team as well. Especially a team as media driven as the yanks in NY City. I pray the Yanks stat out of this sweepstakes
Machado can do a pillow contract. If he signs a big contract this year, if he gets injured or has an off year, he gets paid. A player could always be injured or have an off year.
That’s a damn good offer. 25 million a year for 7 years !
Any team would sign Machado in a heartbeat at 7/175, a freaking heartbeat Kansas City, Oakland, Cleveland…every single team, that’s laughably low for a 26 year old beast. Every team would match or go slightly higher maybe, the White Sox are trying to perform a service for the rest of the league.
Opt out after 3 years likely.
Manny can then do free agency all over again.
Unless it’s, like 100 million for those three years, he could get better AAV from a contender for the same length
He should be making at least that much. If you value 1 WAR at $7 million, and note that, throwing out his best and worst years, he’s had almost 6 WAR a year, he’s worth $40M a year or more. If you expect him to slide back to “just” 5 WAR a year, he’s worth that $33M a year, or more.
He’s worth that much in extra revenue generated, even to ‘small’ market teams.
If there’s no long term risk, only a complete fool would pass on the chance to at least offer it
“he could get better AAV from a contender for the same length”
He could? Where are these better offers from contenders?
I thought back in October they would both last until the first week in Febuary
He’s “worth” what the market will pay. And nobody thinks he’s worth $40M. Not even close.
That’s union propaganda. Nonsense.
“Should”? His value is what an employer is willing to pay.
So, you accept that you’re “worth” whatever your boss pays you? Even if you’re over 50, a woman, a person of color, or stuck in a declining career field? Got it.
Women are doing better than men now. And nobody is stopping those groups you mentioned from changing jobs if they think they can get more. More power to them. Go get more education or more skills and make more. That’s how capitalism works. You aren’t locked into a crappy job just because you are a minority. That’s ridiculous. We had a black President just a couple years ago, after all.
It’s not a question of what YOU are worth but what your LABOR is worth. If a buyer and seller agree on a price that is all that matters.
Yes, exactly. OR you can be unemployed. You decide.
WAR does not equate to any kind of value, it is just a modern stat that sportswriters and agents have used as tools to drive up the market values. Jason Heyward is 100% proof that WAR is a very skewed stat..
Dude, that’s not how the world works.
“nobody is stopping those groups you mentioned from changing jobs if they think they can get more. More power to them”
– Paying women and minorities less is a well documented and systemic problem that isn’t fixed by them just changing jobs. The problems exist from job to job, company to company, around the world.
“Go get more education or more skills and make more.”
– You’re assuming that women and minorities aren’t as educated as their caucasian counterparts, which just isn’t true. Also, plenty of studies have found that people of color are less likely to get hired than a caucasian with the exact same education and experience. And even if they do get hired, they get paid considerably less.
“We had a black President just a couple years ago, after all.”
– There are, of course, many many outliers, but we’re talking about the experience for the overwhelming majority of minorities, You can cherry-pick any kind of exception to the rule, but that doesn’t mean much
First of all, the gender wage gap is a myth. Women typically tend to gravitate towards jobs that don’t pay as much. That’s a personal choice. Men tend to do more in engineering and medicine while women tend to focus more on the humanities and social sciences. Women working the same job as men are paid the same. Women have a more favorable environment than men now anyway. More women are in college. More women are in grad school. More women are in top roles within education. Give me a break with this nonsense.
I’m not assuming anything about education here. I just know that everyone is going out of their way to be more diverse now. If you are qualified, you can get a good job. If you have no skills, you need to obtain those skills or you have nothing to complain about when cheap labor replaces you.
Don’t tell me there are tons and tons of outliers and then tell me there are systemic issues. You can’t have it both ways. There is nothing stopping anyone from getting educated and getting a good job in America now. Especially with the jobs market booming the way it is.
If I owned a company and could get away with paying women less than men for the same jobs I’d just hire nothing but women.
While I actually like the WAR to dollars conversion system which many don’t agree with, I don’t think there’s anything statistically or sabremetrically holding Machado back. Its attitude and how do you put a price on that?
But its not only attitude. The new CBA seems to have given owners an excuse in the tougher luxury tax penalties to say, “sorry guys, can’t do it anymore!” It may be in Machado’s best interest to take the best short term deal on the table that gets him through the next CBA, but keeps him under 30 so he can get another huge deal if he continues to be a beast. It makes complete sense to do as long of a deal as possible, but the opt out after year 3 is really the only important thing here, because he will definitely opt out if he’s healthy.
Its essentially the same as the Yankees Jeter argument, but in reverse. They paid him because his leadership didn’t have a price tag despite the fact that fangraphs valued him at 20+ million just a handful of times towards the end. Sometimes there’s things you cant put a price tag on. People thought he cost himself 3-4 years and 100 million+ and they were right. Johnny hustle wins. Machado loses.
If that was actually the offer. Machado’s agent laughed heartily and hung up.
Nah. He probably came up with a counteroffer, seeing as he’s that’s his job.
his agent is definitely not laughing and hanging up. the last thing you want to do is tick off one of the few teams that even made an offer. he gave a counter offer that at this point the white soxs will think about and not move a inch
his agent is definitely not laughing and hanging up. the last thing you want to do is tick off one of the few teams that even made an offer. he gave a counter offer that at this point the white soxs will think about and not move a inch on till they have to.
Exactly. If he laughs and hangs up on the White Sox that leaves only 1 team to overpay for Machado. And the Phillies can only sign so many free agents.
I will start with the obvious. We know that Machado has met with 4 teams. That means 4 teams are in. Machado’s agent made public long before his talks with the White Sox that they were looking for more money total than Stanton got and more AAV than Greinke got. If the White Sox really made this stupid of an offer after that, and I highly doubt that, then Machado’s agent would have hung up.
So the question becomes “who will top 7/$175m for Machado. There might be teams that would pay more per year(but over less years). I doubt anyone is going to offer more than 7 years, though. He would clog up your payroll for too long and isn’t a guy you can trust to stay motivated/hungry. I think the tepid market for his services is reflecting that reality.
The players want everything their way. They want long contracts and no-trade clauses and multiple opt-outs. But it’s the teams that always get caught holding the bag when these deals inevitably flop.
Anyone who’s topping 25 AAV, even if it’s for less years
Committing to both less money and less years is the worst of both worlds for Machado
If it was made, he was glad because he now had an offer to point to when speaking with the Phillies and Yankees. That’s why a team like the White Sox should not make an offer or if they do, a time limit is included. My suggestion is they tell him to come back at the end and then they don’t leave the room or end the call without an agreement. The White Sox are his team of last resort and they will be used to get more favorable terms elsewhere or he signs only because those terms are the best.
Phillies already said they aren’t signing both and it sounds like they are expected to float that offer to Harper.
Machado was playing everyone to get to the Yankees. And then the Yankees went elsewhere. I (completely speculative) think that it would be quite funny to see this whole Tulo/DJ thing be a ploy to convince Machado they are out and then come in and sign him for $1 mil more. They did something similar to the Red Sox when they signed Mark Teixeira and you have to wonder if Brian Cashman thinks its been long enough to pull this rabbit out of his hat again: espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=3790141
This time its riskier, because with Teix they let him know they were really interested with an initial offer before withdrawing it. But I think if they turned around and signed him and released Tulo and kept DJ in a utility role, it would be absolutely hilarious and a typical Cashman move. Just glad it would be a different pair of Sox on the receiving end this time.
No hustle comment going to cost him big money.
Haha, love it!
Gotta imagine multiple teams would be willing to top a $25M AAV if it’s just seven years
MLBTR says he’ll get 13/$390. He’s probably holding out for that. LMAO.
MLBTR is profoundly wrong—now and for a log time now.
I doubt that gets it done.
Well it’s wonderful to see this market correction finally occur. It’s long long overdue.
Pocket lint
That’s an insult. Machado, even with all his flaws, is worth much more than that.
Not necessarily, and an insult to whom? He’s only worth what the market’s highest bidder is willing to pay. It’s basic economics.
I get the concept but disagree.
Dipping a toe into reality for a moment here, I dream of the day somebody insults me with an offer like that. Now… if only I could play ball as well as Machado…
LOLOL
@ SDFriarfan – What the heck does that even mean? It’s like saying, I understand 2+2=4 but I really think it should equal 9,776.
A player’s actual monetary value is what a player actually gets in his actual paycheck, not a pretend paycheck.
because….you don’t engage in analytical thinking or what?
this is a “mad” post indeed! lol i agree with your post.
And since there’s only 2 teams really pursuing Manny and we haven’t heard what the Phillies official offer was, the White Sox currently stand as the highest bidder.
No, you’re wrong. The market has set a WAR (win above replacement) at about $11m. This bid is SUBSTANITALLY below market value and there is virtually no way that this is the whole story unless there is something we dont know about Machado or more likely there is some commonly believed truth about the direction of MLB revenue out 5-10 years from now. The majority of these front offices have at least basic analytics departments and aren’t acting full emotion on these deals. This is very odd.
I don’t think “the Market” did that. Maybe Fangraphs. If you really believe that 1WAR is worth about $11M, then you should also think that Jason Heyward is worth his contract. He was worth 2 WAR last year.
1 WAR is worth $4 million.
well I guess you need to take into account the fact that it is also the white sox offering it right? they aren’t known to be huge spenders in the market. Manny can always take other bids, try to drive them up but with ST on the horizon the white sox have either set a floor for his market or given a floor that more teams might want to jump in on (think price is right where you bid a dollar over the last guy).
1 WAR equals unnecessary casualties.
With spring training drawing nearer each day, the power of holding out for more money starts to wain. Plenty of players can tell you that (Moustakas last year was a lesson for many, earning just a fraction of the qualifying-offer that he turned down). If Machado turns this down, we’ll see where it leads.
Around the league including rookie deals one fWAR cost an average of about $4.1M/year. but they are nto on the market now and rarely produce 5 fWAR fairly consistantly.
Markets change. Look at real estate. Houses that sold in CA in 2006 for $1 million dropped to less than half that in many cases. Teams have been burned with big, long term deals. They have gotten more comfortable with analytics vs paying for past performance. You have to consider that a guy making $30 million takes up 15% of a team payroll at $200 milllion or 20% for $150 million. It doesnt leave you much room for a mistake on that player or to pay current team members through arbitration or extensions. Further, it leaves you out for future good players at smaller contracts (say $10-15 million) AAV.
This comment is underrated
Trout is worth 99M a year?
Thats a clown comment bro
No, it’s not. A team is not obligated to pay an amount that cripples its operations and burdens its ticket buyers. If only one team wants Machado, he’s worth what they are willing to pay.
I said, war, good god, now, what is it good for?
Absolutely, nothing
Say it again, war, what is it good for?
Absolutely, nothing, listen to me
War, it ain’t nothing but a heart breaker
War, friend only to the undertaker, war
The “market” is set by baseball execs, players and the player’s representatives. It’s not set by the creators of WAR. WAR serves to satisfy man’s need to rank everything. Who’s the greatest this, who’s the best that. Someone arbitrarily assigning a value to 1 WAR is silly and doesn’t really work in the real world. If it were real then Mookie Betts would be worth $110 mil last year and no rational person would think like that.
Let’s also agree than not all WAR is created equal. If so then Willie Randolph should be in HOF because his WAR is higher than Ryan Sandberg and Delin Betances is the greatest relief pitcher in the last 5 years (most WAR). Most would agree, that the pecking order isn’t as such.
WAR isn’t worth anything. You are one of many brainwashed fans who think it actually holds value. It is just a dumb stat that agents and writers use to drive up contracts and ticket prices.
Teams’ analytic departments do in fact assign players arbitrary values such as “WAR”. It’s also not the single determinant in HOF enshrinement for voters. Things like player peak periods, position played, stats, and hardware pieces collected are often other components taken in consideration. Without doubt, Delin Bettances is currently one of the best relievers. Him not racking up SAVES doesn’t make him less valuable.
I created an account just to tell you that you’re wrong. This isn’t a perfectly competitive market out of a damn textbook where supply and demand reach equilibrium. There are multiple factors that distort this particular market, for example, the luxury tax. So, no, it’s not basic economics, and this free agency period will come up in the next cba negotiations
Lol truth
Teams don’t want him other wise they would make it work. Just the same as not many teams want Harper.
Harper up and down case when outfielders are a dime a dozen
3rd baseman are flush as well and only a few teams need one
In any market, what someone or something is worth, and what people are willing to pay, are two different things.
Nope, the definition of fair market value is what price that a willing buyer pays a willing seller in a situation free of undue influence. Undue influence in a housing sale can be a pending divorce, death in the family, things . that created a must sell situation. On a buyers side, it can be a need to buy within a restricted time period leading to a must perform situation. Not many baseball teams function with that type of undue influence so the market is the price that a willing buyer will pay a willing seller.
Really? Then exactly how do you determine what something is worth if it’s not by what someone is willing to pay for it? Does that mean that oil painting I did that I figured was worth ten million dollars but didn’t sell for $10 at my yard sale really WAS worth ten million?
@timewport He addressed that already. You can put a price tag on anything. What it sells for is market based. Often, value is a matter of perception. Yeezy sneakers sell for $500-$1,000 almost even before they hit retail stores. Once he became less popular after some of his political rants then the price went down. Same sneakers, which are trash btw. But the quality between one release and another were equal. The market readjusted based on his brand.
And, you believe the “invisible hand,” Santa and the Easter Bunny all exist, correct?
“In any market, what someone or something is worth, and what people are willing to pay, are two different things.”
@ SocraticGadfly;
Agreed!
Especially if the government is paying them.
Let me repeat what I said above. If you are stupid enough to believe that is the offer on the table to Machado then you are dumber than your namesake. Olney said last year that the best offer on the table to Hosmer was 5/80. How much did he sign for?
And the writers gave similar hype about Moustakas.
These writers are all mouthpieces for the agents anyway. Why believe anything that they say?
In this case, what’s the benefit of them leaking the alleged WhiSox offer? I think it hurts his negotiations, not help. If I believe his best offer is 7/$125 then I would either offer a higher aav and less years (5/$150) or offer enough to just get a better position (7/$210). But still, that’s way off from the $300 mil they were looking for.
That’s a false call and a gross misunderstanding of economics.
To whom?
its not a direct insult to machado unless you count the post season play. mlbtr answered their own question listing players who dont live up to their contract. apart from the ped suspension on braun, braun mostly lived up to the contract.. too early to tell on martinez, but players like pujols havent. so why risk the money.
How is it an insult? Let’s be real, he’s probably worth more than $25M/yr, and this is likely just the starting point of the negotiation, but you’re acting like they offered him league minimum. $25M this year would put him tied for the 14th highest salary in the league, just below Stanton.
No baseball in 2021
Looks that way.
Baseball won’t miss a full season. ’94 killed MLB and theres no way they would let that happen again. Maybe part of a season will be missed, not the whole
eh more time to spend on other things
I think the players have to walk if something doesn’t change. If not, the union would fire Tony Clark.
If I’m the union, I push for an accelerated increase in salary off rookie base, cutting arbitration back to just two years, and raising the dollar value on all lux tax thresholds. I also push for small-market teams to face bigger penalties for not spending revenue sharing $$.
I’d eliminate the penalty for signing a QO FA.
This is absolutely what they should be doing.
Unfortunately, they probably won’t get very far. A) They are completely incompetent, and B) They’re on the backfoot majorly from the last CBA.
The MLBPA has failed the players recently.
It’s not really Tony Clark’s fault, though. The market has changed dramatically. Teams value draft picks and International signings much more than aging veteran free agents now. I doubt firing Tony Clark will change that.
Well, IF … I said. That’s why I said he should fight for the issues I noted. IF he doesn’t get them, then goodbye.
“I think the players have to walk if something doesn’t change. If not, the union would fire Tony Clark.”
I think the time to strike is Spring Training 2019 if Harper & Manchado don’t get market value deals. I assume that HUGE ESPN Mlb TV deals and HUGE local TV team deals don’t pay the owners any $$$ if their aren’t any TV games. This would put a HUGE strain on owner’s cash flows.
The union should demand MIN MLB player salary of $2 million. All players on the 40 man roster acquire service time and are paid the league min. Luxury Tax starts at 45% of MLB revenues. ALL teams that fail to pay at least 40% of team revenues on player salaries forfeit their 1st rd draft pick. This would include the Yankees BTW who were reported earlier to spend only 33=some odd % on player salaries.
There is NOTHING wrong with the market. Players like McCutchen, Corbin,etc received good deal. No one will argue that aav are down because they aren’t. It’s the length of the contract that is the issue.
Let’s have a barbecue. Billionaires are on the menu.
If that is the offer, I expect several other teams to jump in, such as the Angels, Padres, and others. The White Sox will not be able to wait him out like the Red Sox did with martinez last year.
not the angels.
yes, Angels.
The Angels are the perfect example of a team ruined by bad free agent deals. After signing Pujols, they basically pissed away any chance at getting anyone else for years. It cost them a chance to be competitive and it will cost them Trout, too. This is a major reason why teams are less focused on free agents now.
I wonder if Mozeliak and Dewitt send a Christmas card every year to Arte Moreno for bailing their azzes out on Pujols? After all, Johnny Starbucks Mozeliak did offer Pujols 9/196.
Even if that was a confirmed offer, 9/196 is still quite a bit better than 10/240, plus the Cardinals wouldn’t have been stupid enough to backload the deal.
Still, there’s no denying that the Cardinals are better off without that kind of deal on their books.
I’d be surprised if the Angels weren’t paying very close attention. They haven’t made a splash in quite a while. Arte has always wanted to bring premiere Latino players to the organization. The thought of playing Cozart at 2B and having a left side with Simmons and Machado is mouth-watering.
Not the padres they don’t need a lazy player like that influencing the youth movement
Yah. They’d rather pay a first baseman $20M/yr to be a cheerleader with a .720 OPS because he has a “good attitude.”
if they hadnt made that colossal mistake, they would be all over Machado right now and probably up there with the Phils as a top suitor.
Long term I would take Hosmer over Machado any day of the week. Just watch Hosmer have a solid 2019, everyones attitude will change.
I’m sure you would. Why wouldn’t you want the significantly worse player?
I’m furious that the Padre aren’t involved in this. 3B is one of their biggest needs. He would also bring in a ton of fans and sell a ton of merch. We haven’t exactly been flush with stars lately.
Padres can sign Moustakas instead to play 3B? He’ll cost about 10% as much and you won’t have to dread his bloated contract forever. After the Hosmer deal, the Padres need to be very careful about who they sign.
better player, more money. Thats the clear reason Manny will get more money than Moose.
It’s pretty tough to get excited about Moose.
Fake news. Definitely a leak from Machado’s side to drum up interest.
If it was Machados camp that leaked It, why in the world would they do such a low offer?
well just guessing but maybe his camp leaked the 300 million offer initially, hoping to get a bidding war. well it did the opposite apparently and got everyone but the phils and sox to drop out so now maybe they are hoping by leaking the offer at 175 million, it will get teams that dropped out to jump back in and bump the bid back up towards the 250 range which machado will then accept
This number seems rather low to me. At this number, you would think there’d be several teams in the mix for Macahado.
The only explanation I could think of in this scenario would be to possibly get other teams involved that may have thought they were previously out of the running due to the cost/length?
You start that low to drum up interest from other teams. I think the 8 years, $250m reported by Passan and Gomez last week is closer to what is real.
Jimmie, to do exactly what it’s doing: stirring outrage. (me, doing air quotes) A PR stunt, pure and simple.
why would you encourage offers under 300mil to be made?
What a joke, plenty of teams should be jumping at the chance at signing a franchise player in his prime, and the White Sox offer seems like more of a “we tried” offer than a winning offer. I suspect Manny doubles back to the Yanks if the Phillies sign Harper.
David, why should an initial offer be more when it’s the current best offer? He doesn’t want to sign with the White Sox so unless they blew him away, he was still going to wait for other offers.
I seen Joel Sherman tweet that this was basically the same deal the Yanks gave Cano as a “we tried” offer. Just embarrassing where baseball is going. The MLBPA needs to step up and stop getting bent over in every CBA discussion now. It’s definitely time for some new leadership.
You’re so right JDGoat! How dare these organizations offer such a low 7-year contract to Manny Machado. How dare these players play for peanuts…..
Spare me the crap. Besides, I’m sure many record-breaking or near-record contracts started lower than where the player actually signed. Not even close to “embarrassing” as you claim.
The “these guys make so much money to play a game” argument is lazy and dried out. Machado is worth way more than 175 million and its a joke how cheap these owners are. The fact the Dodgers aren’t intrested at that price is terrible. A strike is coming
Kenley, where did I say “these guys make so much money to play a game” statement? If it’s implied, it’s on your end.
Strike coming? Bring it on. Since fans like you don’t have the brains or guts to walk away to drive FAN prices down, strike is the way to do it.
Yes, I just implied a phony statement your way to return the favor.
What else does “how dare these players play for peanuts” mean?? Please elaborate on your genius. I dont know what Machado did to you but to think he shouldn’t even get a bigger contract than Jayson Heyward is comical.
if they strike owneeship should terminate all contracts and hire replacements then break the union. zcommunism doesn’t work son.
Wouldn’t happen. The MLB would absolutely tank if rosters were filled out using non-union players – and Owners know that. They have to protect the value of their franchises, and they would lose millions (if not more) rather quickly. They aren’t going to destroy their own market value out of spite.
It’s not quite a Mexican standoff, but close.
How else do you explain fan attendance dropping year after year? The people are speaking with their wallets
One reason attendance has dropped the past couple of years is the number of teams purposely tanking. Yes, that is definitely the fans talking with their wallets, but it’s through select teams and not an overall statement of all team’s fans.
There are numerous factors why attendance dropped.
Sorry. People are actually speaking with their TV remotes. New Fox contract 36% annual INCREASE. I guess they’ve discovered people are watching in spite of the fact that players aren’t receiving the contacts that Boras and other agents are promising.
Yeah, those cheapo Dodgers only spending $200m every year. What’s the matter with them?
Another billionaire defender. Maybe you should go and see the owners playing ball
Attendance is dropping because it’s a bad, boring product that takes 3.5 hours to play, and it is much easier, cheaper and relaxing to sit at home and drink beer and eat nachos while watching from your couch. The bathroom is cleaner and less crowded, and you can get up and walk around between innings. Not to mention, your car is safe in your garage, and in some cases, you won’t get mugged or shot at when the game is over.
@daved that can be done for all sports. Is the attendance dropping for the others ones too? I think MLB just sucks at promoting its game and stars. @ the same time, the need to stop being so petty with the celebration. We need mlb to be like winter ball.
TV ratings are up. forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2018/10/04/2018-mlb-re…
Streaming is exploding. Revenue is exploding. People are speaking with their wallets and spending more than ever on baseball. Just not on live baseball.
Which makes sense. Millenials would rather watch a movie 3 months later on their phone for $5 than go to the theater for $12 when it first comes out.
NFL attendance is down.
espn.com/nfl/attendance/_/year/2018
espn.com/nfl/attendance/_/year/2017
So is the NHL. So is every live sport.
What is not down is TV ratings and streaming viewership.
People are watching games, just not with butts in the seats.
$15 standing room only tickets that require extra big screens to see the action (the cheapest option).. $1 an ounce beers. $35 parking. Just a few reasons why this fan can’t afford to see live baseball
T.V. is ridiculous however the cable providers generally sprinkle that fee over several packages, it’s not like HBO where you pay extra for your local teams channel
Price of everything goes up year after year for us fans. The least they can do is spend on the product. It’s an easier pill to swallow if the teams are at least spending and trying to compete
I’d rather the players get my money. Owners don’t need to be getting record revenues while suppressing player salaries. This is a terribly broken system, why defend it?
^Kenley – it’s called sarcasm. I know Californians don’t know the concept as sense of humor does not resonate with the socialist crowd. Truth be told, I already said I’d offer 8 for $250 with an option attached at $25-mil. So if I’m some pro-Owner cheapskate by that number, so be it.
Well i hate socialists and the wack job lefties in our state. Assuming ones political views over the internet is dumb on a baseball article. 250 is a lot more reasonable i will give you that
I think the same. The limited the amount of money for international players too.
^JDGoat – there is nothing wrong with a system that pays league minimum at close to $600,000 and the top guys make enough to take care of their family for generations.
The real problem is paying $11 for beer or over $20 for a hot dog, fries and pop.
And get this….if players are that upset, call Japan and see what they can offer. Better yet, set up some local investors and buy the Toronto Blue Jays. Aren’t you upset by the Jays lack of spending for a 26-year old entering prime years? Don’t you want them to spend the money that Rogers certainly has to speed up the winning process?
If not, you know why the prices are dropping. Teams like the Jays aren’t buying, and so are many others.
Well Rand Paul also hate socialism, but he is going to Canada for sergury.
^Kenley, you were the King of Assumptions. Just throwing it back.
4 teams on Manny. At 26, it should be closer to 10. But it’s not, and nobody should be shocked by the price being lower. If it was 10, he’d be at least 250 for 8.
How is there nothing wrong with a system where revenue increases, but salaries are not?
You’re correct about the way the owners are making revenue though. They charge way too much and the sad thing is, everyone still buys it. I’m guilty of it. It just makes no sense why baseball is thriving now but they have to pocket all the money. Pay players more? Nope. Lower prices for fans? Nope. This is turning into capitalism at its worst.
Players union didn’t see teams using the tax penalties like they have. Team’s in good faith should as I’ve said before work together on a new system that rewards players earlier but rewards teams and their fans with longer team options (allow teams to go over the threshold to resign their own players without penalty). Also go back to base type contracts with incentives. Owners will pay for production but so many bad contracts make it risky. Players want the best of everything. That said just remember the fans ultimately pay the freight.
^Revenue increases? Great. What are the expenses?
Not a single person here talks about the expenses. Why? Because people do not know or care about the complexities of running a business. Stop with the revenue argument. The expenses are overlooked by you and everyone else. Anyone who’s balanced a budget should never neglect that part.
Anyone who has balanced a budget can also tell you that you can turn a profit into a deficit pretty easily. I have a hard time believing the expenses baseball teams had came anywhere near 10.3 billion. Maybe teams like Tampa or Oakland would be close to breaking even with expenses, i’ll give you that. But I highly doubt the MLB as a whole comes close to that number. And don’t forget, that doesn’t even include the over 2 billion dollar deal that came in the bamtech sale.
I’ll never get why people will defend the right of an owner to make so much more profits, yes they’re ALL making profits in MLB, even in Oakland and Tampa. Yet they’ll allow the players who I undoubtedly pay my hard earned money to watch on TV and live to get their wages suppressed despite revenues in the sport increasing.
Yes, them making 30M a year is a lot more than what we make. It’s however not even close to the billions the owners pull in every year. One player is making a fraction of the total payrolls combined is in MLB. The Owners make roughly 55% nowadays in total revenues in MLB while the players make 45% meaning Mike Trout and all his 800 friends with major league contracts still won’t make as much as the 30 or so owners.
Wow, your team’s prices suck. I can get real tickets (not standing room) for about $10 each (including fees), pay $5 for a round trip light rail ticket, and bring my food and drink into the park for free (doesn’t include beer, but I don’t drink, anyway).
Risk v. reward. Some owners financed their club and are paying big time interest. Alternatively, one should be looking at the true rate of return (not owners’ manufactured claimed losses) and compare it to what they could make of that money were invested elsewhere. That said, most players have one huge skill and if they could take it elsewhere for more money, they would. Thus, without a CBA mandating a larger percentage of the gross (to eliminate an artificial number) to go to players, it’s a supply v. demand situation. Owners figured out that most players are replaceable.
The Yankees offered Cano the same money he got, just 2 less years. It was all over the press here.
What makes Machado a franchise player, what has he exhibited to be labeled that?
While he may not quite be a franchise player, it’s worth remembering he’s close to superstar numbers every year and is theoretically just entering his prime now.
5.4 WAR per full season in the majors.
He’s a star for sure. Will he remain a star for the next 7+ years? I wouldn’t bet on it. The history of free agency isn’t on his side.
Every one calling the sox offer a joke, may I ask if any team offered higher or even nearly as much? Why bid against yourself. Go sox
I ask if you REALLY believe anything Olney says. Same guy said Hosmer had no offer over $80 million last season and would definitely return to KC. We know how that turned out. He said that a 31 year old Darvish would not get more than 5 year $100 million and that the Twins were the frontrunner. We know how that turned out.
did he make the Orioles better?
Yes, they were better. Of course, the 2 wins doesn’t mean much when you are in the process of losing 115.
They could very well be willing to go higher but they gotta play the game. It’s also not about just money but how the contract will be structured as well.
“Even a team like the Padres, still emerging from a rebuild and more earnestly eyeing contention in 2020, could reasonably top an offer of that magnitude. (San Diego did, after all, sign a far lesser player in Hosmer a year ago.)”
nice potshot, but still agree. padres might as well offer 7/200 and see if manny can manage to not laugh before hanging up
I don’t consider it a potshot, necessarily. They’re the team who signed the largest free-agent contract last winter, and they did so for a player who is unequivocally and empirically lesser than Machado. I’m sure A.J. Preller and his staff would undoubtedly fire back with a defense of Hosmer’s leadership and clubhouse presence while simultaneously pointing out a lack of each for Machado.
That, however, shouldn’t cover the enormous gap between their overall ability. And, if Hosmer is this supposed generational leader, perhaps he could help Machado in some respects.
All of that aside — that wasn’t intended to be a criticism of San Diego alone. The Twins have no money on the books in 2020, and Machado’s lone offer right now is from a division rival trying to come out of a rebuild. The Brewers have like a $110MM payroll and Braun off the books soon. The Mets play in New York City and are at $160MMish.
I’ve frequently rolled my eyes when some claim that mediocre (or worse) players have had to “settle” for marginal contracts. I recall there being some columns written, for instance, that Mark Trumbo shouldn’t have had to take only 3/37.5, and I wholly disagreed with that notion.
The fact that we’re in mid-January, though, with basically a two-team market for Machado and one offer that doesn’t even top $200MM is absurd to me. So many teams just flat-out aren’t even trying. Half the fans in the league should be angry at their favorite team’s front office for not pushing harder on a player like this.
The new normal Steve…..
Also, Trumbo was poised for a bigger contract according to some.
It’s not a 2 team market. Even your own articles have talked about a mystery team or teams involved in the bidding. I am not sure why your site even bothers to pass on the BS that Olney posts. Can you name a time that he was actually correct about something like this?
don’t disagree with anything. just as a padres fan, reading that bit was funny to me. nice to be noticed tho. maybe i can get a few chat comments answered now that we’ve had this exchange. cheers
Steve hates the Padres. He said in a live chat a while back that they and the Phillies would wait the longest before their next postseason appearance. This despite the Reds, Orioles, Marlins and Royals existing.
Am tired of the “no money on the books in 2020-21” argument.
All teams are going to be paying 25 players ML salaries in those years. Some of them veterans that will be paid decent bucks. Do you think their FO personnel are not projecting future expenditures? And how about their young players that teams expect to give a chance to? After 2-4 years of developing them, the teams just throw them overboard?
The Mets play in NYC? The White Sox play in Chicago. Have the Mets and Sox ever generated anywhere near the revenue of the Cubs and Yankees?
As for Minnesota and Mauer…..are you blind? That organization was handcuffed by his contract at least the last 3 years. They just got out from under, now they’re supposed to do that again? When Mauer was signed, wasn’t he considered a star that would grow even better? How is the Twins attendance? Is their Radio-TV contract even 1/5th of what the Yankees bring in?
San Diego. Never a great baseball town, almost lost the Padres. So-so attendance and below-average TV contract. They sign Machado for an AAV of $25m, and between him, Myers and Homer, those 3 guys will eat up over 1/3 of their payroll in 2020 – limiting taking on any salary in trade, or signing most FA’s.
Your logic is like saying that I paid off my car a year ago, I have no car payments on the books, so how come I’m not going to my local car dealer and getting an expensive car that’s better then mine for a clearance sale price and I can arrange 7 years of payments? You have no idea what my plans were, and how I gave up things to make my last 3 years of payments.
Being responsible and disciplined does not equate to being cheap and greedy.
That’s cute….comparing your personal expenses to that of a MLB team and its billionaire owners
Ever seen an episode of Cribs or Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous?? Never seen just one economy car in the driveway. Hell the rich block in my town has more cars than people
Most team’s tv contract alone would cover the team’s payroll. They have several revenue streams.. How is it that the players are always made out to be the greedy ones and the owners are just smart and frugal?
If Hosmer is worth $20m/year then Machado should easily top $25m. It’s a great example. If you are willing to pay a 1st baseman that much, ponying up for SS/3rd baseman with a much better bat should be a no brainer for every team
While the Padres don’t draw as much as the Yankees, they did draw nearly as many fans as the Mets. Is anyone saying that NYC is a bad baseball town? They outdrew the White Sox by 600,000. They also outdrew several playoff teams. For a team that was guaranteed to be losers, their fans sure showed up. The last time the Yankees played there I found intelligent and informed fans in the stands for the packed games I attended.
@ Friars,
Do you work and support yourself?
I do. How is that relevant? We’re talking about how the billionaires reinvest their profits. Not how many cars I can afford
Minnesota has never been hamstrung by Mauer. Ever. The Twins perpetually had $35-40M+ per year tied up in mid or back end of the rotation garbage arms they signed.
Kevin Correia
Mike Pelfrey
Phil Hughes
Ervin Santana
Ricky Nolasco / Hector Santiago
Carl Pavano
Jake Odorizzi
Lance Lynn
With a solidly mid-market potential payroll capacity (there’s no excuse for a payroll below $130M for the franchise), the front office or Pohlad family have consistently steered away from high end talent on long term contracts for just as much money sunk in to perennial short term contracts. The result is the Twins save no money, have no ace or veteran players to build around and field mediocre talent in the interest of reducing the risk of having long term contracts which may or may not pan out.
This type of method has not worked to produce viable World Series competitors in over a decade.
It could be possible that the owners know something that’s going on behind the scenes economically and don’t want to dish out too much money at this point. I know it’s a crazy theory, but I remember last year there were a ton of good FA unsigned around this time.
Maybe they see a strike coming too, along with a market correction that has them paying a lot more for talent after the next CBA
@ socalblake;
Bingo!
MLB owners are in fact business partners. That is a multi-billion dollar industry. Their #1 responsibility is to protect their investment and that of any partners they have. Another responsibility is to preserve the sport.
You don’t run a private sector business like that calling up a bunch of overgrown kids with no business experience, sticking them on Radio-TV talk shows and blogs asking them – whatdaya think?
The Commissioners Office is forever contracting with powerful econometric consulting firms for projection of future growth. My guess is that the growth of MLB has peaked and is slowly rolling back……and all the long-term contracts assume continued future growth.
Like signing a free agent, building a new ballpark creates initial enthusiasm. But over time it becomes the norm. One element I think studies are finding is that almost all the new parks are built. The glow has worn off, and around the country people figure that a team paying players millions and tens of millions can build their next new park themselves, the public is already overtaxed.
One other thing – the bad contracts. At least 25 of the 30 teams have some. There is no longer anyone to off them to.
Revenue is increasing. The owners know that. The players know that. Now you know that, too.
Last season the top 3 FA were all 3-6 years older and not nearly as good as Machado and signed for $144, $126, and $110 million.
@ YourDaddy;
Apparently you did not comprehend what I wrote. I’ll try one last time.
First off, we do not know if revenue is increasing. But let’s say it is.
Sorry to bring 7th grade economics into this, but……
– If costs are rising faster the revenues, then those costs have to come down. No business can survive if they don’t. –
Unions and their wage demands killed the US auto industry in the 1970’s. Took about 30 years for the full collapse to hit. In the meantime a lot of people got filthy rich……including the union negotiators. The consumers? No problem. They took their business to foreign car makers. There is still a US car industry. Nothing like it was.
Horse Racing and Boxing were 2 major sports in this country – bigger then football or basketball, on par with baseball. Consumers moved on.
I like baseball. I came here to talk baseball. That has not been discussed here much the past week.
Carrington gets it.
The baseball writers praise KC, CHC, and Astros for 5 yr “Tank to Build” plans which allows for fan tolerance of low payrolls and 100 loss teams.
The “KC plan” was not a 5 year plan. They missed the playoffs for 20 years. The Astros went over 50 years without winning much. And we all know how long the Cubs went without a WS win. People only want to remember the final 5 years of a rebuild, but it took a lot of losing and trying before getting lucky and having it finally work.
Totally agree Steve..I’m a Phan, and wonder how do these things work..lots of talk and doesn’t seem to be much action..
More and more, I see the players union gearing up to go head to head with the owners who rake in the cash and if they are printing it..so much work needs to be done..it’s time for the players to come up with a plan..aside from clock starting, minimum contracts, qualifying offers and the penalties..
I am now (hated it for years) in favor of the DH in the NL. I’m tired of watching pitchers hit. to that end, expand rosters by not less than 2 in the NL. so so so much more!
“Because the Mauer and Braun deals worked out so well for their respective clubs, I’m sure they are eager to hand out more deals just like those”
Does Machado lack a good clubhouse presence though? As far as I could tell his teammates liked him in Baltimore and in LA.
Machado isn’t even tied to a qualifying offer so we can’t use the excuse teams are scared of giving up future prospect capital, it’s really obvious the owners are suppressing longterm deals at this point.
Machado not getting a deal into his late 30’s would’ve been seen as impossible just a few years ago.
Certainly this is an initial offer — why not start with a low bid?
could backfire?
The dollars are obviously outside of your comprehension so let’s see if we can bring this down to your level.
You are a trained hamburger flipper. The best one in your whole town. Great hamburger flippers like you are already making $20 per hour, but McDonalds offers you $8.25 an hour. Would you even consider anything else McDonalds offers you after that?
If all the other flipper jobs in town are taken? Probably.
So you’re saying the Sox offered Machado under half the going rate? That’d mean players like him are making $50+M/year, based on your example.
CLEARLY that’s not true. $25M would make him the 14th highest paid player in baseball this year. It’d be more like McDonald’s offering $17.50/hr, and if there is only one other restaurant bidding, you damn well should consider anything else offered. Again, this is obviously just a starting point. I hope they can get him for this price, but I HIGHLY doubt this is the contract he signs.
So if McDonald’s offers $25 an hour, you’d reject it because of “hard feelings”? Haha
And this is exactly why the Yankees never made an offer. Let the White Sox set the floor, no need to bid against themselves. I’m not convinced they’re out of it, with the price being so low right now.
Not what he was expecting but still not a bad opening offer considering the years committed to. Expect others to commit more annually say 5 x $30M?
MLBTR said he’d get 13/$390m. Remember that nonsense?
I think that’s what’s upsetting them……something wrong here…..think you’ll see it in the next year or so…and I’m not talking players contracts.
I’m phasing off here.
P.S. Notice how the market is not the market when salaries stop going up?
Maybe the Players Union can get a clause in the next CBA that all teams must have $50m of bad contracts on the books, or they get fined and lose draft choices.
Machado is a punk and everyone in baseball knows it.
That’s highly debatable and anyway he’s also an elite player
I don’t think him being a punk is debatable, but he’s definitely a good ballplayer.
Unless you were in the locker room, it’s debatable. It has never once been said in the media by anyone in a situation to know any more than we do as fans.
His teammates love him in anything credible that you read, The only thing is his laxidacixle behavior on the field. But then again, manny Ramirez and A-Rod did it too. Machado is a super star just like them. Is it right ? No, but it can be accepted because of the elite talent/production
Everyone in baseball also doesn’t care
If he plays for/with them, it’s somebody else’s problem. If you’re playing against him… Well, you ready want to beat him and everyone else on his team anyway…
I highly doubt this is the actual contract offer. Several days ago it was an 8 year 250, then it was 8 years 200 as a refuted report, now its 7 years 175? Its negotiating tactics, rarely, if ever, are these reports factual.
I can almost guarantee this “leak” is coming from Manny’s camp to drum up more offers on the basis that the White Sox are being cheap
Why in the world would Manny’s camp leak something like this? They would leak that they had a $300 million deal on the table, not a low ball offer. This is just plain old lying by Olney to get some clicks on his garbage column. ESPN has lost so many readers that all you see come from them is complete clickbait. It’s always wrong when it comes to stuff like this. Keep in mind this is the same guy that said that Hosmer had no offers over 5/80 last offseason, We saw how that turned out.
It’s pretty simple to come to the conclusion as to why his team approached Olney for one reason only. If the Phillies have bowed out then the only offer they will get, that we all know about is the Sox, the Sox have no one to bid against. Start the $ low and by the end of the week he has multiple offers over 200m again. It’s simple negotiating
No smart person would say “hey I have an insulting offer of $10 million less than I have already said is the minimum I will accept”. You are more of an idiot than Olney. Go away Red Sox.
and when you have 1 insulting offer your instinct is to just accept it? no you should look for competition. if 300m didnt work 250 didnt work, 200 didnt work, youre going to go lower. you can say I’m an idiot all you want but if you cant have a conversation then you may be the problem.
Not a bad offer at all, but no way he takes it.
Horrendously bad offer. Machado is better to this point in his career than Stanton was before his extension. Machado plays a premium position and if the White Sox were stupid enough to make this offer, which I highly doubt, then they deserve to continue to lose for years to come.
Oh look, another industry crony chiming in with misinformation on the White Sox’s offer to Machado.
Seems like you have some insider info then. Care to share?
Maybe he is talking about the 3 other writers that have all said its north of $200 million?
I love how they low balled him! Reporters love to bash the owners, but they’re the ones finding and investing in an entire franchise while employing hundreds, well beyond a roster.
Of course that should be funding
Are you really that stupid? The communities and taxpayers build the stadiums, TV and fans pay the bills.
It can be seen both ways. America’s biggest retailor has a large percentage of employees barely getting by, and the entire family of the company’s owner are among the richest Americans.
But when it comes to sports, people think the owners shouldn’t get rich from their “workers”.
If that’s being “lowballed” then where do I sign at??? Hell, these guys ain’t worth that kinda money. It’s gotten so ridiculous. If I had Machados talent I’d be thankful for any kinda offer like that.
I love how everyone thinks $25 million dollars a year is a joke. No one else is making an offer. I’m sure theyre willing to go up but there is no reason to at this time.
And the yankees have lemahieu to play 2nd, moving torres to SS. Tulo doesnt need to play everyday. Theyre saving their money to go after a SP next year.
It’s not in the top 12 in AAV. It’s not just a joke, it’s an insult.
Nice arbitrary stopping point.
Yankees won’t sign him, they only sign long-term deals for players over 30. Wait until his next contract then they will sign him to 8 years at $250Mm
dumbest comment ever. since Arod/Ellsbury show me an example.
What a tool, Giambi, Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson, need I go on? They were and are notorious for getting stars after their star has burnt out.
Nobody wants him
He oughta just take it.
you can’t be serious
What happened to the 8 year 250 million?
It’s still on the table. Olney only posts BS. Last season he said that Hosmer’s best offer was 5/80. We saw how wrong that was.
He’ll take it.
Probably wants a lot more, but it’s not like 10 teams are lining up to out-bid the Sox.
it’s only the beginning…why is that so hard for people to understand? teams are still feeling out his market and when Manny does get formal offers in the 250mil range, the “mystery” teams will fade out… yes, 175 is incredibly low but some team has to start the negotiations somewhere, so why not the Sox at this price? Both player and agent are expecting a kind of “low-ball” offer just to finally set things in motion anyway, as that is how negotiations work
Still doesn’t change the fact that as of now, only 2 teams have really pushed hard in signing Manny.
I think when all is said and done we may look back and say Machado and Harper’s agents mishandled how they approached free agency. All the talk of 10 year $400 million deals may have caused teams to immediately drop out and look elsewhere, teams that may have been interested at a lesser price. I guess we shall see, the Phillies are the wild card in all this since they are pretty committed to getting one or the other- if they gave each a final and best offer with a deadline to respond, I’d think the players would feel a lot of pressure accept (assuming it was the high bid at the time)
When all is said and done we will absolutely look back and say that Olney is full of it.
Wat?
That’s a cute offer. Participation trophy sent.
This is a negoiation. You make an offer. They counter offer and so on. The Sox offered 7/175m. Ok. Now Manny;s side needs to come back. I’m sure they came back with something like 10/300M. The Sox say no..and so on, but if the Manny side refuses to come back with a reasonable number you just sit on your offer. It sounds like this is where this is at….Sox made an initial offer and Manny’s side hasn’t moved to a reasonable (in the Sox mind) counter. We are stuck for now….To unstick it Manny needs to come back lower or the Sox needs to feel heat from another team.
Why would a laughably low offer make him budge off his initial demands?
This would be bad negotiating if it’s a ploy…
Makes me wonder what the Phillies offer was.. It’s been reported that they made a written offer to Machado. I wonder why that hasn’t come out yet?
Because they didn’t have a “writer” like Olney making stuff up about their offer yet. Just realize who we are talking about. Olney said Hosmer had no offers above $80 million last offseason.
i dont think Phils made him a formal offer yet, but its hard to tell what’s actually going on
Machado’s camp has been clear since before the offseason started that they were looking for more than Stanton got total and an AAV north of Greinke. Why would any smart team even try an offer this low? Hahn is smarter than that. He didn’t make this offer. Olney is lying to get attention. to get clicks for his failing blog on ESPN.
He is an excellent player but kinda damaged his stock in the eyes of some with the two issues. One could be construed as hard baseball but the other can be interpreted as something else. that something else will hold some back. i say the twins or friars should just do it. bh to dodgers for goodness sake. gee
Screw Machado. Let him go whereever.
Give me Harper. That’s the FISH I really want. I don’t want to hear about contract length, money, taxes, age, outfielders we supposedly already have, the Dodgers/Phillies/Nationals or any of that other bullshit.
I want to see a middle of the order of Judge Harper Stanton Sanchez for 10 freaking years. Most of whom will have these guys in their primes. I want to see monuments for them in monument park. I want to see them back for old timers day (if I live that long). I want Yankees fans to talk about that middle of the order for 100 years. I want to see that trio (and hopefully Sanchez too) go into the hall of fame … as Yankees!
Jim Bowden was right last night on the front office on MLB radio. SHAME ON YOU YANKEES if you don’t do this.
I was listening to that last night on my way home (I love that program). Bowden definitely has a point. Especially now. Given this news, it’s amazing the Yankees aren’t all over this.
I tried like hell to call in I was so ready to say this on the air. Spent 45 miles dialing their number.
Why put out $30+ million a season? Nearly every 10+ year contract always goes sour, and the Yankees don’t want to risk that. I don’t blame them either looking at next year’s FA class, and Trout being an FA after 2020.
You sign a guy to over $30 mil and you run the risk of not signing a player you want to keep, Because player B gets $15-mil, player C gets $18-mil, and you’re still paying player D $23-mil. It all adds up.
Bowden’s point (and I agree with him) is that when you look at the 10 year deals that Pujols Cano Votto got you’re like this ain’t gonna end well because they all signed those deals when they were older.
For Harper who will be 35 at the end of the 10 year deal it’s less risky.
That said I don’t give a crap about years 7-10 because hopefully that would be at the end of another Yankees dynasty.
The Red Sox winning another title should have been the best thing for this offseason because nobody can say boo how they react when the Red Sox aren’t going anywhere and the Stros are just as stacked.
You wanna get better than them you gotta do this.
“A 10 Year offer for Harper or Machado is the same as a 5 year offer for JDM becuase of the age. Harper and Machado will be 36 at the end, just like JDM” – Jim Bowden
He also made a good point too about how the Cubs might get a pass for signing those guys because the went all in to win a WS trophy and actually did. Same with Red Sox. Same withh the Cardinals.
That really was an excellent segment of the program.
and that a 5 year offer for AJ Pollock was more risky than a 10 year offer for Harper. He was balls on accurate with that one too
Exactly how many 10 year offers have been for a 26 year old player?
So Bowden is just regurgitating stuff that has been said here about a billion times all offseason?
Given Pollock’s injury history I would have to agree. You can have all the talent in the world but if you can’t stay healthy and take the field, what good is it?
Tim,
YES
DITTO
Balance
Short Porch
AMEN
I’d like to see that, but not for ten years..
in ten years i’d say its a safe bet at least one or two of those 4 aren’t even playing anymore.
LMAO. I will take that bet. I want a dinner at Keens when they both are playing.
Probably my favorite comment of all time.
You want him to go to NYY too ? It’d be the old saying….”They’ve got the best team that money can buy”. The luxury tax, fortunately, prevents this from happening long-term.
does it really, though?
Not perfectly, no. But it is a deterrant from a team that has five times the revenue of some teams. In much of Europe, for example, you can buy an NYY cap in most sporting goods stores. It has been that way for years. But try to find a Brewers or even a Nationals cap.
Holy Moly,
That’s not a lot of Cash Mr. Hustle
Not a lot? Even with this “low ball” offer, he would still be getting paid higher than 98% of the league. Fans seem to think this is monopoly money.
Chill
Does anyone know if the Phillies made a formal offer? I thought i read they did and how can it not be a better offer?
It would be pathetic if the Yankees don’t top that offer.
Front office collusion is still alive and well in MLB. Just like last offseason we will see a lot of quality players sign for well before normal market value. I’m not mad about it.
Why though? The owners just pocket more of our money instead of the people who actually have talent.
The people would be playing for peanuts without these owners. And the fans. Eliminate the owners and you will see a circus.
Make the “talent” groom and water the field before and after games. Make them get their own ice and treatment after games. Make them clean the dugouts full of seeds and gatorade after games. Make them them carry their own equipment on road trips, and if they are given an allowance for road trips just eliminate that too. Crying poor for players is a bad look.
I disagree big time. The owners have brainwashed people into allowing them to pocket more while spending less. I’d much rather “cry poor” for the players rather than the owners.
^No kidding. Yet when I say Rogers should be in on Harper, guys like you say no. Well, teams like Toronto aren’t buying. Therefore the price can’t drive in an upward direction when teams are not in buying mode.
“Guys like you”
What?
Yes. Guys like you. You talk about players deserving to be paid, as though they are entitled to that money, and yet where are you on the push for the Blue Jays to go after these two 26-year old free agents?
Crickets.
Exactly. Guys like you. I apologize if you’re female.
You’re probably using a burner account named Iverbure. No, I’m still not Jimmertree.
Lol I like how you deliberately misspell his name to try and throw people off.
How many players have lived up to these large contracts?
Stanton trout and miggy were extensions
You can really argue only the first a rod contract acand max from the nats actually lived up to their contracts
ManRam’s 8 for $160-mil with Boston.
How many steroid pops did he have?
How many rings?
Two that we know of, lowtalker. I know, I was just putting it out there!
Holliday’s 7/120 deal worked out well despite most of the value coming during the first 5 years of it. He also helped the Cardinals to 2 Pennants and a WS Championship.
Wow, pretty much everyone should be able to beat this. At this price, the Cardinals should make a pitch and have Carpenter start in right field if this is what it costs to get him. Machado is obviously a massive upgrade over Fowler offensively and improves their infield defense and Carp can’t be worse than a Fowler/J. Martinez combo in right field.
The Yankees could do 200 mil
Anybody think that at the end, Machado and Harper go to the same team as a package deal for 2-4 years each for a deal that includes a base of $25-30m each and heavy escalators based on production?
NO CHANCE
Some voices have offered the possibility that maybe the elite owners know something about the future of the US economy that most of us don’t know. I don’t think that is the case because the elites are quite usually “all-in” even when reality shows the insanity of that course. The current economic system is religion to them. They just diversify better and can stand the economic shocks when they do happen. But I suppose maybe MLB’s economic standing is something they know about that we don’t.
What would make this a better article would be to include Harper in the story. Does the same hold true for him, or don’t we know? What are his on-the-table offers? What is his highest offer? If the above holds true for Harper, then it eliminates some variables that are Machado-specific.
This ain’t it chief.
What isn’t?
The offer, what the article is about.
Still don’t follow. Was your 4-word reply to my response, or to the gods of the ether? I laid out a lot in my response, so those 4 words could mean almost anything. Dialogue, conversation — that’s what I like. If you are unable to offer that, then why comment? And if your original comment was not meant for me, my apologies.
Low
Is anyone really surprised? A joke of an offer by a joke of a franchise.
Anyone else wonder if theres going to be a correction on these long term, high money contracts as we start to inch towards a future where baseball isn’t necessarily as popular as it is today?
Because in terms of AV, this is low for Machado. But in a landscape where baseball numbers are sliding a bit? I dunno, makes a bit more sense.
Yes, but the correction is more about the years than the money
I don’t expect harpers offer to be much more and it makes me laugh he turned down that report 300 mil offer
Reminds me of moose turning down the qo and seeing crickets
I don’t really see the mystery here. Just because I COULD go buy a new car today doesn’t mean I SHOULD go buy a new car today.
Teams have finally, correctly, concluded that these long deals are a bad value. It ties up money in a depreciating asset. Nobody want to pay +25M to a broken down slugger in their mid 30’s. The club assumes all the rick in these long deals.
The money is simply better spent elsewhere.
Well, the idea is that you get excess value during the first half of the contract (or sometimes even directly frontloading the deal), but even then these deals are better off lasting no longer than a player’s Age 36 season. However, as young as these guys are, it still makes sense to give them 10 years.
Teams get more bang for their buck having a great farm system, and then filling in the gaps of their controlled, homegrown talent with “affordable” free agents.. The Astros have shown the blueprint of how that works.
Why don’t they just release Alonso and Willie Jay and throw their salaries on Machado’s deal. That might get it done.
Even the Braves could top 7/$175M.
Jason Heyward signed an 8 year / $184,000,000 contract with the Chicago Cubs, including a $20,000,000 signing bonus,
If Machado accepted this, ha!!
This contract and the effect it’s had on the Cubs is exactly why players are having a much harder time finding takers for long term – big bucks contacts. Smart people learn from experience, even the experience of others. Citing Justin Hayward’s contact makes exactly the opposite point that you seem to be trying to make.
Yeah, but most people knew Heyward was being vastly overpaid even when he first signed the deal. There were no signs that his offense was ever going to get better than the slightly above-average bat that he already was (although actually getting worse was a surprise), while his defense was being overvalued. Machado on the other hand has been been a vastly superior overall player to this point of his career and is worth paying an AAV of $30M+
This is obsurd. Whoever pays this much for this guy didn’t watch the playoffs. I do think out of all of his suitors the White Sox seem like the best fit. You think Philly or NY would love him while he walks to first on a ground out then spikes the first baseman? Maybe. I don’t think so.
I think you’re being abtuse.
In the end, do you really care how much they’re making? Just matters if he team wins. It’s not our money. We’re just fans and want our team to win. I’ll let the owners figure out how to put it together.
Well hell. Padres should attach prospects to hosmer and myers to clear salary, move reyes or renfroe to 1st which clears up the OF issue, and go 30 mill a season for machado to play ss and tatis jr to play 3B if offers are that low.
Offer KC Mejia as part of a package to take back Hosmer who could just DH full time while they rebuild.
Offer the Orioles Adrian Morejon as part of the package to take Myers. Put myers at 1st Davis at DH.
I dont get the appeal of signing players like this to huge deals. Rarely do they perform up to the money they are being paid. This deal wont get it done. Some team will pay him some ridiculous amount of money. Past has shown that huge deals like this are regretted after the first 3-4 seasons. Its better to allocate the money to multiple needs than handcuff the payroll for a bat
Cool. ! . . . Enough of these $200 Million Dollar Contracts. !!!
I don’t believe it. Makes zero sense. If this was truly the best offer on the table, many teams would be involved. Of course, the agent could be passing out this bogus number as a way to churn up interest.
I think it’s a bogus number
I am going to call bullshit on this supposed offer. THREE other writers said it was between $200 and $300 million. Machado’s camp has been consistent in asking for more than $34.5 AAV and more than Stanton’s total of $325 million. If the White Sox made an insulting offer like that they would have absolutely no shot at signing him. Hahn is not that stupid. Olney is.
If you can offer 8 years at $200-$220m and have opt out clauses after years 4, 6 and 7 why not sign him?
Opt-out benefits the player and the player alone.
the marlins should swoop in and sign him for 180mm just to make everyone scratch their collective heads.
Then Jeter would trade him for “cant miss prospects” as attendance would go down even more in MIA
if ever there was a team that needs moving, it’s the Guppies..
Come on Cubbies. Jump in 8/240. . Marwin Gonzalez as backup plan
And then you woke up..
I haven’t seen any Cubs fans wanting Machado. Maybe a 1/4 of them want Harper.
Machado hurt his value during the playoffs with his ” I’m not Johnny Hustle ” comment and kicking the feet/ankles of Aguilar and Pearce. Not to mention, I believe teams are done handing out 10 years contracts. They rarely work.
I said back in late October/early November on this site that Machado and Harper were in for a big shock at the lack of offers they’d see, especially years offered. Writers and comments on this page were throwing out ridiculous predictions of 12 – 14 years and $350 -400 million.
I predicted they’d get 8 -10 year offers, altho now it seems they might be lucky to receive an 8-year offer.
The sabr revolution has actually been refreshing as far as making teams realize that players aren’t worth ridiculous amounts of $ on deals that are too long and of diminishing returns.
Another off season and the dodgers are not going to do anything unbelievable.i am so tired of them doing nothing.more money than anybody and dont do anything really
I don’t think LAD has ever forgotten that Kevin Brown contract.
Has to be a tough pill for Machado to swallow. Low ball offer from a terrible team with little to no chance of making the playoffs.
imo i could see the white sox making the playoffs by 2020 or 2021. they have a lot of young potential that’s already in the major-leagues. a guy like machado could help solidify that stance.
Lmao at most of these comments, why offer more when no one is bidding against you? We all know mystery teams are 9/10 times made up by an agent. Valid offer with no other team presenting him a single legitimate offer.
“Jarring” and “eye-popping” are the words you use to describe teams only paying 175 million for a player. How about at the end of the article you list all of the 9 figure contracts that have been absolute disasters for teams? Players were being overpayed into their late 30s for what they did in the past. Those days are over. Almost every team has been burned by one of these mega contracts. The median MLB payroll last year was about 142 million. If you pay one player 17% of your payroll it’s hard to fill out a competitive roster.
What percentage of the Dbacks team salary is Greinke earning? It’s mind-boggling. And a starting pitcher appears in 20 percent of a team’s games.
When all is said and done, he will get the money he is asking for. You can print that!!!!!
It’s not really crazy, how old was Tulo when he signed his extension? He’s been worthless since turning 30 and was just paid two years salary to go away.
The anticipated market for Machado & Harper is all hype – media speculation and noise. The reality is much different. Good for the White Sox, they appear to be the only team not put-off by speculation.
If I’m the Marlins, I’d try to swoop in and offer him something that tops A-rods 10 year, 275 million offer. Maybe 10 years and 300 million.They have a need at SS and he’s from Miami and within two or three years, they’ll be contending. Doesn’t hurt to try with the current state of the market.
Nah…Guppiues will never compete..they are one of the money grabbers..
The problem is, the marlins can barely sustain their payroll as it is right now. Jeter and Co. bought the team for far more than what they had, so I don’t think they can stand a huge increase in payroll for another few years. However, when Chen and Castro come off the books, I think they could make a play on some second tier free agents, like AJ Pollock this year, come 2020 or 2021.
And there’s no reason to swoop in and top Arods contract when he’s barely gonna top the Pujols contract.
Its wierd to me that baseball writers will cite bad contracts as a reason it should be easy for machado to get one.
Mannnnnnnn if the Yankees offered a 31 year old Cano a 7 year deal surely they could do 7/225
Cashman is dusting off the checkbook as we speak.
Why does this writer even mention the Dodgers? They saw enough in the half season. ZERO reason for him to be a Dodger!
at 10y/250m, maybe a tad more doesn’t seem too far of from where he should be, 7y/195ish probably not far too bad. but 25M annual avg on 7years does seem a bit low. Given his position, i’d load them both up with incentives too
at that price pirates need to jump in and say hello at the very least. player/position wise exactly what they need.. some character questions but manageable as long as he doesn’t start driving drunk or drugging women (just saying i’ll take a little lack of hustle over those true or not)
I know its not realistic but man.. then again if hes not getting the attention.. maybe something else is wrong.
Good! Likely takes them out of the running for this ball and chain.
Machadon’t
I see the Machado signing going a lot like the Price and Pujols signings. Cardinals lowballed Price at 7/186. Bosox countered with 7/217 and deal was done. Cardinals offered Pujols 9/196. Angels came in with 10/240. Beware when you lowball a player. This is why teams sit back quietly and watch other GMs make the first offer. The bar has been set, and now other GMs work a deal from there.
This is annoying at this point and redundant, Either sign or don’t. I mean how much money do you actually need?
Comparing Trout and Machado’s 2018 stats:
Is Trout were offered 7/30 AAV- Would the reaction be the same?
Mike Trout/ Manny Machado
2018 Stats
At Bats
471/ 632
Runs
101/ 84
Hits
147/ 188
Singles
80/ 113
Doubles
24/ 35
Triples
4/ 3
Home Runs
39/ 37
RBI
79/ 107
Stolen Bases
24/ 12
Caught Stealing
2/ 2
Walks
122/ 70
Strike Outs
124/ 104
Batting Average
.312/.297
On Base Pct
.460/.367
Slugging Pct
.628/.538
On-base Plus Slugging
1.088/ .905
Comparing Trout to Machado? That’s where you lost me.
Trout earns those numbers every year. “Johnny hustle”, so far, has only posted those numbers in his walk/contract year
Don’t see any sabermetrics mentioned, Trout blows him off the board in peripherals
which was why I gave him a higher AAV than Machado in this hypothetical.
Trout is by far the best player in baseball. The highest paid “position” player in baseball is Cabrera at $31M, and number 2 is Altuve at $30.2M. For what it’s worth, this contract would put Machado at #4 in all of baseball (for position players). If you up your hypothetical to say $35M/year, you’d have a better argument. It’d make him easily the highest paid position player in baseball by AAV (well deserved), but it’d still feel CRAZY LOW for Trout.
That’s what happens when you go in free agency thinking you’re Lebron but you’re just another one, his ego must be by the ground.
On one hand, what is happening now is definitely crazy, and it raises concerns about the future of the sport.
On the other hand, the players agreed to this CBA on their own free will, against the advice of economic and financial experts. They have no one to blame but themselves, and I can’t spend too much time being concerned about them. Maybe next time they will take negotiations seriously and actually consult experts, instead of focusing on getting extra seats on the bus and complaining about clubhouse tips.
I think we’ve reached the pinnacle of what a player is worth. I mean seriously at this rate in 3-5 years you’ll have guys wants 40mill AAV. That’s not fiscally realistic even for big market teams. I think what you’re seeing is GMs not wanting to pigeon hole their teams with these type of deals. Harper/manny are top tier players sure but they don’t change the face or path of your franchise. They can’t. It’s more than one guy that makes the turn. Look at the successful teams. Not bogged down with these deals.
And the Padres paid Hosmer $144 million. Ha! What an asinine move.
Machado’s got nobody to blame but himself. We’re all adults, and we all realize FEW players go full tilt all the time….it’s a long season, sometimes the games don’t mean anything, etc. But to come out and talk about it the way he did was just dumb.
No owner wants to have to apologize to his customers that he just gave zillions to a guy who says those things.
And I’m not sure the owners will pay a price for their collusion (and it’s collusion, no doubt). They’ll go ape-poopy over the 2020 class of FAs, and say, “See, we still love ya”…..Players have short memories.
I think it has more to do with spiking the firstbaseman on his way to first than watching a HR. The later is an easy mistake to make, the former is a mistake of character.
Seems to me that these teams just do not like or trust who Manny is as a person. To have a guy around that may be an issue at that price and those years is risky. As silly as people may think that hustle comment was, it seems to me it was pretty costly.
he COULD be expected to provide more value but w that tude its far from a sure thing. that kind of contract and ego can debilitate a roster for years.
Any deal he signs will be riddled with opt outs anyway so he can take another chance at the market when it is more favorable or stick it out if he’s not living up to whatever deal he signs.
How much did October cost this guy? If these are the types of offers he’s getting, he could sign anywhere with a relatively early club and player option.
He gets a chance to prove he has grown up and clubs get a chance to get rid of him if he hasn’t.
How many times is the first offer the best offer made? Obviously this would be a floor offer but nowhere near the final offer accepted by Machado. If this is indeed the offer to beat, I’m quite confident it will be surpassed by flying colours in the coming weeks.
Almost any team should be tripping over themselves to offer 5 years for $180 million with 2 and 3 year opt outs.
Opt-out benefits the player and the player alone.
Yeah, which would make it attractive.
I imagine Machado’s first few words….. that offer must have twisted his ego into knots.
About 75 million low in his mind?
Utterly ridiculous if the Yankees aren’t in at this price.
At what point are people going to take Hal Steinbrenner’s comments seriously?
“If we’re interested in any player, we sit down with them face-to-face with their agent and ask them, ‘Where did this come from? What context was around the entire interview? What point were you trying to make? How do you justify it?'” Steinbrenner said. “Because that ain’t going to sell where we play baseball.”
Why are teams so hesitant to hand him a 10 year deal?? No doubt will he back at 3B 10 years from now, but I’m sure he’ll still be capable of playing at a very high level, so why not??
This is either BS and Machado’s agent is trying to drum up more interest. OR the collusion in baseball is so deep that the work stoppage in ’21 is all but assured to occur, and be severe.
I tend to thiink it’s the former, as the Phills wuld certainly swoop in for 8-10years/$250mil and feel like they got a steal
Perfectly fair offer.
Pale Hose? Lol!!
I wonder what he’ll eventually sign for. If 7 years at $175 causes this kind of stalemate and no one else seems to be jumping in just yet, maybe something like 8 years for $224 would be a good enough middle ground where the Sox still feel like they’re getting a bargain (compared to the 10 year $300 million he initially seemed to want) but Machado still gets 28 mil per year on a long term deal? Maybe even throw in an opt out or two.
Yeah, while negotiating a deal for a new 4×4 truck I felt guilty and offered to pay double the MRSP sticker price so people wouldn’t think I was a greedy cheap bastid. Yeah, that’s the ticket.
Of course right away had to bring up the yankees. I guess I understand but it gets old that the media has to include them in every report
These reports are a waste of time and space. Reporters digging on negotiations, contract offers, etc. serve no purpose at all. It’s entirely possible ANY team could have offered him an amount and told him they would consider moving from that figure if he can find a better deal. The White Sox are not cheap, nor are they low balling him. There is likely a good chance that Machado is waiting until Harper moves in some direction, knowing full well that the teams that lose out on Harper will be more inclined to be more aggressive for him as opposed to coming up empty handed. In the interim, why not just report signings and not stupid reports like this which take up space.
Just my $0.02 in a sea of comments – but I think the change in Free Agency mindset from the teams is a correction to an error in the way baseball contracts were handled for years:
Namely, great young players were vastly underpaid (by and large) up to and through arbitration, and then were paid in part in unrestricted free agency according to how well they played previously on those small contracts. The player’s own team would be willing to pay based on the previous production, and rival teams would need to beat that offer to bring him over.
Now, GMs and their staffs are telling the owners that those huge contracts are potentially crippling long term, so they shouldn’t sign them. Harper and Machado are the extremist examples of this so far because of their relatively younger age, but statisticians are saying:
“These guys won’t produce near the level they are now in 7 – 10 years time, so if you sign them to the contracts they are asking for, you’ll wind up in salary trouble”.
Since this movement now appears to be league wide, you end up with this.
The thing that will come along and alleviate this a bit (I think), will be a push from the union to start upping salaries at younger ages. The thinking being if you don’t want to be on the hook for older players declining, you’ll pay them better in their prime years. I think that change will bring expectations in line with the actual value of players. If a player earns 50 million over their career, it’s even in terms of total money regardless if they earn 25 before Free Agency and 25 After, or something like 10/40 like it has been. If you take things like Inflation and Value of Money into account, it’s even in the player’s advantage to do the former.
Now, will Tony Clark and the union push for that change? How hard do the owners fight against it? Will be interesting going forward for sure.
Okay, I’m definitely not a Machado fan in no means. I don’t like what he did to Aguilar last season, and his fights with Oakland a few years ago, his interview with Ken Rosenthal this offseason, and his lack of hustle in a few instances this postseason. However, as an Angels fan, I would be happy if Arte threw a 9 year 225-230 Million contract at Machado. That’s Pujols money for a guy who won’t start aging like Pujols until the contract is in the final year or two. However, if they do decide to sign Manny, I’d really hope that Pujols is released… actually I hope Pujols is released regardless of what happens this offseason.
Angels = Mystery Team
I think it is now they pay josh 150 5 year
You know that not going to happen
You’d need Pujols to mentor Machildo for a year.
Machado back to the Dodgers for 4 years/150 million and he becomes a free agent again at only 30 years old.
Don’t ever say that again!
MACHADO NEVER IN BLUE
No, but you are about to get Harper…
And I wonder if he’d be interested in a 4 year deal? Wonder if teams would go at him for maybe 4 years 140-150 mil? Huge salary but not extremely long.
There is your IPO now the bidding starts. $175 yes is no where near what he wants, in fact close to half of what they want. They definitely will be increasing the offer over time. Gonna be a slugfest probably between the Phillies and Sox until someone caves.
Amazing that the author brings up horrible contracts to Mauer and Braun as reasons to pay out another long-term deal. Nobody trusts Machado for that long and I can’t blame them.
If this is the highest offer Manchado can get he should go play a year in the Japanese baseball league or just take a year off. Harper too. That would REALLY make the COLLUSION of the owners more apparent for the next CBA meeting.
How much is enough? One or two years is near or exceeding the combined lifetime income of everyone on this board.
Since only 1% of us make more than 250K per year, then one season is definitely a lifetimes worth of money even to those of us with good jobs.
You don’t risk a one year deal. Guys who do that we’re not offered AAV of the QO. More than one guy has overvalued their services & ended up accepting a 1 year offer lower than the QO. Mousakas not the first nor the last to screw it up. He was offered 100 million to stay at KC but turned it down. He played 11 million under QO. Machado will get 7 years 210 million from someone. Probably the Phillies.
Does this maybe signal an end to those stupid 10 year mega money contracts?
I hope so.
Opt out after three yrs. Players going on strike for 2022.
After the Kikuchi deal… I don’t get why the Mariners are not in the Manny Machado sweepstakes. He is not getting any offers from top tier teams. Sorry to say that Manny Machado would be a huge upgrade over Crawford or any of our other prospects. Why don’t they offer Machado a 7 year/200 million dollar contract and call it a day. I have to say that would be a bargain for a top 10 or 15 player.
The Mariners would possibly go for a wild card spot next year while their new young prospects continue to grow into our system. After they trade Encarnacion, they will have more flexibility in their payroll.
Maybe I am a delusional M’s fan that has 17 years of drought on my mind. I feel this would be the time to get a top of a line player for a bargain.
Way over rated players…
If every team in the league is not willing to pay more than that, even those with no clear fit, id be incredibly shocked.
Rick Hahn.
Sounds more and more like Harper should have taken the 10/300 mil and enjoyed the rest of his career.
If they walk again in 2021, what will save MLB this time because that whole “look the other way while new records were set as balls flew out of the park” methodology won’t work twice.
… or will it?
The owner realize they need someone to fill seats who the fans like (Harper) and represents the club and get fans to buy products. This with TV money is bigger money then filling the stands. So the owners see a good time to “set” the market in the owners favor. Let’s face it the money is getting crazy. A ten year contract assumes that everything will keep going up, but somewhere there’s a plateau and none wants to be on the wrong side when (if) it does peak.
Terrible job comparing the offer to Hosmer. Hosmer’s contract was for 8 years (averaging $18m per year), so Machado’s offer of $25m per year is a lot more than what was offered to Hosmer.
I really hope he signs this deal simply because that could give me hope that the Rockies could hang onto Arenado long term.
If that’s it I think Preller should step in. Machado would fill a need for the Padres and if we go off the $7m/WAR thing Manny is easily worth more than $25m AAV.
Not necessarily, as these article points out.
deadspin.com/baseball-doesnt-need-collusion-to-tur…
Not hustling makes a difference and it’s finally showing Baltimore had some talent and could not win I just believe his laziness rubs off negative towards young players
Maybe angels are in this they pay Josh Hamilton 150 in 5 year y not manny
Hamilton was 5/125, not 150.
Mets better be involved at that price….but there is NO WAY he signs for that…
Minimum: 7yr/$245mil
Maximun: 10yr/$326mil
Harper
Minimum 10yr/$326mil
Maximum 10yr/$350mil
As a Mets fan I would love to see both leave the division. But I think Machado ends up in Chicago and Harper on the Phils
Even if Philly grabs Harper, they need one of Kuechel or Kimbrall. Kuechel would be best and use Robertson as closer. If by some chance Philly whiffs on both Machado and Harper, they need to sign Pollack,Kuechel and Kimbrall. Or trade for Kluber and another bat. The NL EAST is going to be exciting
That puts the ball on the tee for one of the big guns to come in and offer slightly higher after some time passes.
So…we’re going to start a Go Fund Me page?
Or trick the city of St. Petersburg to pay for it, that’s more Riensdorfs style…
I’m waiting for all the Yankee fans to chime in with their….well we should pounce at this price nonsense. George really has that fanbase totally jaded.
I’m not a Yankees fan, but honestly they should. he’d be a good fit for thier 3b need and if his market is this bad they could jump in with something like 3/90 and not have the pitfalls of a long term commitment.
I was going to say I am waiting for all the idiotic Yankee haters to jump in but too late.
All these comments amaze me. People are acting as if he was offered ten dollars an hour to play. $175 million is more money than anyone needs for a lifetime, let alone 7 years. It’s not the offer everyone expected, but let’s stop acting like this is an insulting amount of money here.
I wouldn’t go so far as to use the word ‘insulting’ — after all, this is just business. But there’s no way in hell a player like Machado should even have to *consider* 7/$175MM. That’s a joke.
Yeah, why should he consider a deal that’d make him the 4th highest paid position player in all of baseball next year?
Insulting? no. I think everybody just has a problem with the way the owners are handling baseball nowadays. Instead of making 200 million dollars annually, they want to make 500 million.
And pay the players they need half what they’re actually worth while doing it… While raising prices every season…
Well I’ll back up the owners there because this is a business & real purpose of a business is to put out a product that makes money. If owners are not allowed to make as much as they can then what’s the point? Players try to get as much as they can on every contract. That’s why it’s called negotiations. And for now we still live in a capitalist country albeit not for the efforts of a certain party. But that’s for another bulletin board. I just wish all the people proclaiming lowball offer to never ask or want a raise even though you are making ample enough income. People on both sides of employment like to make money. It’s what we do, except for the ones who want & get it for free
I know that, as a Reds fan, I have no desire whatsoever to see us pay Machado even 25 mil per. Granted, we have an infield that many teams would envy, but I’d sure as hell rather spend the money on pitching.
The payout puts him 4th in average annual salary for position players… he is 9th in Total War for position players and 14th overall.. I’d say that’s a pretty good. The market has 2 guys on it every team would love to have but the speculative contracts are crazy… Bryce harper total war he ranks 78th and you all think someone ranked 78th overall should get 30-35 mil a year? That’s the stupid money the phils are talking about.. paying well above what a player is worth. We have seen plenty of teams take that approach and get burned.. I wouldn’t want to be on a team like that if i was concerned about winning and sustaining it.. I’d rather have 175-200 mil and a ring or 2 than 250-300 and no rings or chances.. I think his family could live pretty well with that. If I was Manny I would take it and be on a team that is about to control a weak al central and be in contention soon.. with Manny and Eloy coming up it would be a monster 3-4 combo.
I think his friends, RR and Abreu would be good for him as a superstar in the making too.
I said it before (must have gotten deleted), and I’ll say it again. Buster Olney is NOT a reliable source these days. It’s debatable if he ever was. All he’s trying to do is generate “buzz” as industry, er, “journalists” are apt to do when they think a certain player just has to go to select teams. I’m confident the Sox made an appropriate offer to Machado, and both parties are waiting for other teams to possibly counter it.
Knowing that the figure came nowhere from Machado’s camp as there is 0 upside to do so. I am a life long White Sox and I will say there is no way they are out leaking such a low ball silly offer. I once heard Rick Hahn say if it is in the media it did not come from us. This is fabricated bs y’all are losing your minds over. White Sox May have indeed low balled but I doubt like this and moreover went public with it.
Here is the funny part with the people who post on here. If any team not named the New York Yankees signed him for even 7-250 everyone will say what a smart signing it wise but if the Yankees do it everyone will say they are idiots for signing him to such a big contract.
It’s actually the other way around. The Yankees are always encouraged to spend money. Clubs in smaller markets raise eyebrows in the media when they do this.
Yanks wanted nothing to do with him when they brought him in and he said I’m playing SS and I’m taking the top offer. That’s a strong rumor I heard on mlb and wfan so who knows how accurate it is. Regardless I’m happy the Yanks are not in on Machado and I hope it stays that way. I rather have Didi, Andujar, and a third guy to fill in long term then Machado. I much rather have Harper left handed bat long term as well.
If MM needs some insight, Le’veon Bell is on line 1..
“Pay me 18 mil per” —–LeVeon
Response: *crickets*
I think the Yanks are out on Machado, They will give Miggy another year to improve his D and evaluate agoin next year when Arenado and Rondon are free agents. Both are older so they will get shorter deals theoretically
“Fancred’s Jon Heyman hears that the White Sox’s reported offer of seven years, $175 million to Manny Machado is “way off.”
ESPN’s Buster Olney presented those numbers on Wednesday afternoon. Word is the White Sox aren’t willing to go beyond seven years for Machado — or Bryce Harper, for that matter — but Heyman writes that the dollar value in this case “almost surely begins with a 2,” as in $200-million-plus.”
Another contradicting report? Shocking.
Oh yah, and Lozano came out and said the details being reported are completely wrong. Guess we can stop overreacting for a little while.
stop overreacting?! Stop being reasonable Priggs
Buster Newjob?
“”I have known Bob Nightengale and Buster Olney for many years and have always had good professional relationships with both. But their recent reporting, like many other rumors in the past several months, have been inaccurate and reckless when it comes to Manny Machado. I don’t know if their sources are blatantly violating the Collective Bargaining Agreement by intentionally misleading them to try and affect negotiations through the public or are just flat out lying to them for other reasons. But the truth is that their reports on the details of the White Sox level of interest in Manny are completely wrong.”
Dan Lorzano
Below are the 6 position players who have signed contracts worth $200+mm and their stats from age 26-35, which is 10 years. I left out Stanton since he is only 3 years into this age bracket and included the 9 years for Votto and 7 years that Fielder played before injuries forced him out. None of these players 10 year contracts would look like albatrosses if they signed them at age 26 like Harper and Machado are now, with the exception of Fielder who suffered a career ending neck injury.
Cabrera: .321/.404/.558/.962, 158 OPS+, 290 HR
Pujols: .301/.386/.559/.946, 155 OPS+, 359 HR
Cano: .305/.362/.503/.865, 134 OPS+, 249 HR
A-Rod: .296/.391/.564/.955, 147 OPS+, 388 HR
Votto: .311/.436/.528/.964, 159 OPS+, 216 HR (9 seasons)
Fielder: .282/.383/.475/.857, 131 OPS+, 159 HR (7 seasons)
Age matters and getting a superstar free agent at 26 years old is huge.
Debunked by numerous writers and Machado’s agent.
He ought to take 1 for 35 or 40 mil and play for whoever he thinks will win it. Then let the Yankees and Red Sox compete for his services. Xander, Machado, & Didi would all be free agents. Would be interesting.
It will be no different next offseason.
It’s just amazing to me people never seem to mention concerns about Machado’s conditioning. The league has seen plenty of the Ryan Howard’s, Prince Fielder’s, Miguel Sano’s and Pablo Sandoval’s. High end potential to proven talent which ages exceptionally poorly.
There’s no team in baseball who likes Machado’s history on conditioning. Machado packed on a lot of weight from early in his career from an elite fielding SS in the minors to the stud fielder at 3B to the quick decline on range and metrics attributed to his poor diet and lack of discipline.
He could put on 60 pounds and still be the lightest guy in that group. He’s not even close to being in the same shape as those guys.
I really wouldnt write off Sano so early. He had one bad year. Its possible that repeats itself and it is also possible that he goes back to the production he was putting up before. He is still very young. Also, Fielder didnt stop playing from low performance. He was still doing very well and had a career ending injury. I wouldnt lump him in with Ryan Howard (who might as well of had a career ending injury, but a lot of the blame could be pointed to the introduction of new infield shifts)
I am SOOOO confused!!! I thought Manny Ramirez retired a couple years ago? How the hell is he demanding THAT much money in his 40’s? PED’s I’m guessing ♂️
Ever wonder why we haven’t heard a peep out of Baltimore to bring Machado back and make him the cornerstone to their rebuild? (while making him an all-time historically great Oriole?) The Dodgers have talked about Harper, but nothing on bringing Manny back (despite health issues in their infield). Ever wonder why?
If you’ve played college ball or higher (or even high school for that matter), you know Machado is “that guy”. From literally throwing the bat at the A’s (2014) to the ridiculous foot stomping act we all saw in the playoffs, Manny is not about his team…he’s about Manny.
Olney understands a keyboard, not the dynamics of a clubhouse nor the requirements of a coaching staff. To call out other organizations for not being in the Manny contract talks is laughable.
Anyone that truly understands the game and business risk mitigation knows that Manny’s market is playing out just the way it should be: a small group of lean-talented suitors that are willing to take the risk. And he is just that…a risk.
“Ever wonder why we haven’t heard a peep out of Baltimore to bring Machado back and make him the cornerstone to their rebuild? (while making him an all-time historically great Oriole?)”
Probably because they are not even close to competing, and they have a garbage farm system. They also play in the AL East. Their next competitive window is nowhere in sight.
“The Dodgers have talked about Harper, but nothing on bringing Manny back (despite health issues in their infield). Ever wonder why?”
Probably because Seager is going to be healthy, giving them elite talent at both positions on the left side of the infield already.
Yup. Dodgers were never even mentioned as a suitor for Machado until Seager went down and though you could argue that Machado is the type of player you make room for, the marginal upgrade from signing him probably wouldn’t be as great as the marginal upgrade from spending all that money on starting pitching.
Current offers for Machado not known. But Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano, issued a statement saying reports of a seven-year, $175M offer by the #WhiteSox to Machado are inaccurate.
twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/10856587157877145…
A bad attitude before getting the big money means a nightmare for whomever pays this guy. Some people don’t deserve long term contracts, regardless of talent.
Laughing at so many comments and stories of how shockingly low a 25 million per year offer is. They should just implement a dual salary cap, one for the players at 25M and one for the teams at 200 million. I think this structure would create a lot more balance in the league. Just because a bunch of writers (term used loosely) and agents constantly were flapping about 300 million deals, doesn’t mean it would actually happen. This gives me hope…
Maybe a team like the Rangers should consider trying to sign Manny. They are starting a rebuild, but by the time they become competitive again, they would still have him for a few years. They need a 3b right now. Or they could sign him and give him a chance to rebuild value and trade him in a couple of years.
What do you mean “rebuild value?” He has no value to rebuild! 2018 was right in line with what he has done his entire career.
Reputation value took a hit in the postseason.
Nope
Machado’s attitude and unsportsmanlike play makes him a perfect fit for the Cubs. He will fit in with Baez, Rizzo and Contreras.
Looks like someone isn’t getting enough attention at home.
There are some good points in this article. Personally, I think Machado is even more valuable than Harper.
However, the Cardinals certainly do not have room for him. Their infield is already set, and they’ve even got a guy who could start as an infielder for at least half the teams in MLB riding the bench (Gyorko). What do you expect them to do, move Carpenter to 2B and dump Wong to the bench as well? That would be a huge defensive hit and unbalance the starting lineup even further away from left-handed hitters (not to mention the lack of roster space for another infield bench player) that wouldn’t be worth the luxury of investing in a mega contract like that.
So a bunch of media types and people not involved with the business think someone is worth x amount of dollars, so they spend the better part of a year publishing that in every way and place imaginable. This is not how markets work. We have 3 elements. Supply, demand, and regulations. When you sign a contract with an employer, you don’t get to determine what percentage of revenue you’re entitled to. You get told what a position is worth to the company and you negotiate from there. Being able to say the exact same position is worth x amount to this other company is a way to get leverage. Without a physical offer in hand however, most companies won’t care. It’s not up to outsiders to determine markets, nor is it up to employees. No one is giving this guy what he wants, and 7 years and 175 million is already a stretch.
According to Manny’s agent, this is fake news.
Blame the Red Sox, Cards, & Giants. No one has had more success than them in the SABRE era. Now all teams are following their methods.
Specifically that means the druken sailor no longer establishes the market for the top FA any more. The Yanks now prefer to trade for a Stanton like contract & to do so they look to move their own contracts for prospects.
Instead GM’s ask “what would BOS pay for such a talent?” They structure their offers on that premise. BOS has now become the most influential team on every year’s FA period.
It doesn’t matter whether analysts believe that Trout is worth $40-50M/yr. What matters is what BOS is willing to pay & how much the NYY’s are willing to beat that. That will set his price more than any other factor. Because BOS & NYY have little to no interest in Machado & Harper teams like the White Sox & Phils are trying to make deals BOS might envy.
The union has failed the players not because Machado & Harper are looking at $25-35M/yr but rather because the minimum for the NYY’s is the same as Tampa. Let’s say the NYY’s profit is $300M & Tampa’s just $30M. How do you strike a competitive balance there? In an Ideal world the NYY’s minimum would be 1000% greater than Tampa’s. If the next CBA pegged Tampa’s minimum at $600K for year 1, the NYY’s should be $6M. That kind of balance is essential in the next CBA. Likewise, the draft must include international players. If Tampa is the least profitable team in MLB & carries a #1 slot value of $6M, that same slot would cost the Yanks $60M.
The next CBA should allow Tampa to sell that slot to the Yanks & insure Tampa uses that money on players. If by year’s end it wasn’t spent it should go to Tampa’s players in the form of bonuses.
League revenue sharing then is more about raising the least profitable team’s minimum values than competitive balance. The difference in team miminum’s is all about competitive balance.
Low profit teams need the 4 + 2 arbit years of control over new players. I don’t see much room for negotiation there. But they can do away with QO’s. The only teams deserving of extra control
are low profit playoff teams. I like playoff tags then. Say by some miracle Tampa makes the playoffs this year. They definitely would be in a window of contention & should be able to tag their best players. A playoff tag would allow a low profit team to retain that player for another year at an average cost of top 5 at the position. Only the bottom 15 least profitable teams should be eligible.
This is essentially a “tax breaks for the poor and raise taxes on the rich” argument.
The Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, and Giants have had over 100 years of influence and proper branding.
The Rays have had an up and down 20 years, no fans, and a poor ballpark. A stadium with a roof that is the same color as the ball is really not appealing to players.
Ownership has failed the team and the public. Relocation is their only hope to increase profits. They had a good season last year and couldn’t draw a crowd from start to finish. That says it all. The first MLB team in Mexico could be the Rays.
MLBTR loves reposting this article just to spite Machado’s agent…I love it! He’s a $40M/Yr. talent with a $40/hr. attitude. I really hope he doesn’t get over $25M/Yr… would love to see him have to ‘settle’ for 4/$100 or even 5/$120. Agents would scream collusion but if you are going to invest that much in a single player, you need both A+ talent to go with an A+ attitude.