When the offseason kicked off, the National League East’s flurry of moves spotlit the four-team race between the Nationals, Braves, Mets and Phillies as a premier event of the 2019 season. Since then, the National League Central has drummed up quite the competition of their own. PECOTA projections for the 2019 season recently surprised many by dropping the Cubs all the way to last place with a projected record of 79-83. The Brewers are pegged to win 88 games, 85 for the Cardinals, 81 for the Reds and 80 for the Pirates, the takeaway here being that there are five competitive clubs with a shot to win the NL Central. Last year the division gave us a three-team race between the Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers that ended in thrilling fashion. After flirting with the division lead for most of two seasons. the Brew Crew finally caught the Cubs and took the NL Central crown in a one-game playoff. The Brewers are the new kings of the Central, but clocks reset and everyone starts from zero on Opening Day, when the race begins anew.
Not only did the Brewers win the Central in 2018, but they’re on the shortlist for winners of the winter. By adding Yasmani Grandal on a one-year deal, bringing back Mike Moustakas and adding another shifty left-hander to the bullpen in Alex Claudio, the Brewers are going for the kill. They still don’t have a bonafide ace, but they didn’t last year either and the staff is deep. Besides, they have reigning MVP Christian Yelich leading a hungry group that’s gotten better every year under Craig Counsell en route to their NLCS loss to the Dodgers. The young Cubs lost the 2015 NLCS and came back to win it all the next season – the Brewers very well could do the same.
The Cubs still won 95 games, and they are returning close to the same club for 2019. They added around edges with Brad Brach and Xavier Cedeno in the bullpen mix and Daniel Descalso taking over David Ross’ empty seat as spirit of the clubhouse. Otherwise, they kept Cole Hamels around for $20MM, they kept Addison Russell around despite his suspension, but all of a sudden the kingpin of the central has been pronounced dead upon impact. Of course, the frightening amalgamate known as Bryzzo is a proven foundation, and if Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo return to form and stay healthy, the first-place Cubs may yet live again.
The Cardinals machine kept pumping in 2018 en route to 88 wins, and they’ve added perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt. Matt Carpenter will be hitting leadoff for them again, Yadier Molina remains entrenched behind the plate, and they have a slew of young arms ready to make an impact for the major league club. Question marks surround their most-trusted veteran arms as Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright have to prove they’re healthy enough to contribute. Mike Shildt is getting rave reviews for the impact he has had on this ballclub, and in his first full season as skipper, a division title is very much in reach so long as they stick to the Cardinal Way.
In recent seasons, that’s where the conversation has ended – but not this year. The Reds remain a distant fourth for the time being, but for the first time in a long time they made significant upgrades to their starting staff with Alex Wood, Sonny Gray and Tanner Roark. The offense should continue to mash in Great American Ballpark, and there’s some real excitement around this team. Top prospect Nick Senzel may break camp as, suddenly, a centerfielder, but even if he doesn’t, Yasiel Puig is more than happy to stall for time and entertain the crowds in Cincy until Senzel is ready. If nothing else, the Reds are definitely a better team than in 2018, and they’re fun.
The Pirates are the sleeper here, which is a kind way of saying they’re likeliest to land in the cellar. They’ve been mostly forgotten in a winter without a significant free agent acquisition, but they have made changes. Their middle infield plays for the Tigers now, and the new duo of Adam Frazier and Erik Gonzalez don’t have to do a ton to match the production from Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer, who combined for only 0.4 rWAR while missing significant chunks of time. GM Neil Huntington’s major additions came last July with Chris Archer and Keone Kela, and this team was better than most of us remember in 2018, finishing with 82 wins. If Archer finds his top form and Jameson Taillon takes a step forward in his development, the Pirates might surprise us.
Maybe the Cubs will surprise everyone and sign Bryce Harper tomorrow, but more than likely these teams are who they are for the beginning of 2019. PECOTA has the Brewers at the top with the other four not far behind. What say you?
It is hard to predict anyone other than Cards. They ALWAYS do enough to be good but add Goldy and probably jump top in central.
The NL central is going to be a battle royale this summer. Can’t wait. Go cards!!
@StlSwifty, will be a very fun year! Good luck birds! But go Cubs! 😉
Every team in the NLC could conceivably finish above .500. Even if the Pirates are the weakest of the 5, we still have a nice looking bullpen to go with a solid rotation.
I definitely believe the Pirates could win 80-85 in a weaker division.
They won 82 last year. This race is gonna be a dogfight and I love it. And I’m an Ms fan! Lol
Brewers run 7 deep in the lineup, have a top 1 or 2 bullpen, top 1 or 2 defense and deep starting pitching. They are the division champs and the central is theirs to lose.
Deep starting pitching? What bar are you setting here that Milwaukee’s rotation is considered deep lol. It’s been patched together and they were very fortunate not to run into a lot more issues than they did last year. Their defense is also taking a big step back with Moose/Shaw at second and Grandal behind the plate. Add in the general volatility of bullpen pieces, and the direction the Brewers should be heading is down from last year.
Brewers had a top 5 defense last season and 2nd in drs in mlb for most of the season including with Shaw at 2b. In fact, their defense is why they project so well. 3 brewers relievers project in top 25 in mlb for 2019:Hader, Knebel and Jefferies. Brewers do lack a frontlone starter but have Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Nelson, Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta. That is considerable depth with some interesting upside. Finally, Brewers are the defending champs which means this is their division to lose.
Having a deep rotation of mediocre to terrible pitchers does not make for a good rotation
Chicago has an old rotation that benefits from overexposure in the media. Brewers have a young rotation with far more upside and health. Just because they are not household names does not make them mediocre.
Lester has pitched in 30+ games for each of the past 12 seasons (he’s the active leader in that category). Hendricks has been on the DL once in his career. Hamels has thrown 30+ games in each season since 2008 except for one. Quintana has never been on the DL.
But sure, let’s just pretend like the Cubs rotation is full of oft-injured old fogies.
Seems you don’t follow the minors much, makes sense for a Cubs fan I suppose. burnes woodruff and Peralta could be studs. Brewers really only NEED one of them to hit. the others can do what they did last year, bail out the starters in a fireman role. is there any real reason anyone has that the bullpen won’t be as good other than “they were so good last year they can’t be”?
it’s the Brewers division until it’s not.
I agree with you that the Cubs don’t have injury prone starting pitchers outside of Darvish. The age/Mileage of Lester and Hamels have to be concerns though. They are both 35 and have thrown around 2500 innings. That’s a lot of miles
Division titles do not carry over, there is no advantage at all.
Ok, but like it was said, everyone has mediocrity depth. To pretend that the Brewers pitching depth is anywhere near the Cubs or especially the Cardinals is missing it.
You’re using the word “could be” when making projections. Don’t. Could be doesn’t get you anything. I’m not saying that the Brewers aren’t going to win, because I think they have as good a shot as anyone. But don’t fool yourself into thinking this team doesn’t have a weakness, because, regardless of how they do, when we’re talking in February, pitching is it.
“…Brewers are the defending champs which means this is their division to lose.”
#dumbsportsstuff
Brewers were second in the entire NL in quality starts, behind Dodgers, ahead of Rockies.
I know its hard to believe, not a fan of their rotation either and I think that aspect we take a step back. Also doubt Yelich can carry this team quite like he did in 2018. I hate the Cardinals but they were my pick.
I mean is that not the case?
No doubt those guys will probably take the mound in most games, but with the age probably one of them goes down. It isn’t the health or the age, it is the talent. They are good, but certainly not great.
Despite what defensive stats you might cherry pick, the Brewers have holes. An infield of Shaw, Moustakas, and Aguilar, with Grandal behind the plate, leaves a lot to be desired. They are trading offense for defense, which may work, but over the long season they will pay. No doubt they are terrific in CF, RF, and SS, but it takes more than 3 good defenders to make a defense. They extra pressure that puts on a mediocre at best starting rotation is dangerous. I get the strategy, just don’t think it pays off. That said, the Brewers should remain in contention, but since the division is so strong, every game will be a contest, and you cannot outhit everyone everyday.
My argument to that would be that baseball is now three true outcomes. Nobody is really playing small ball anymore..if you have a good defensive outfield I think that’s all a team really needs anymore. Guys are only trying to hit the cover off the ball, so I think a weak defensive infield isn’t as detrimental as it used to be
Stan Lee doesn’t actually watch the Brewers. He casually reads about them and follows the narrative of national writers. No one care cares about the starting 5 on opening day. That is going to get mutated into a 10 man rotation over the course of 162 games that demands depth.
Maybe… But he gave us Spider-Man. And where is he from? Queens. Mets win NL Central
Milwaukee had the 11th lowest era in baseball last year Pina was rated as the 10th best defensive catcher with 8.4 defensive WAR while Grandal Rated as the 9th best defensive catcher with 9.0 defensive war. Overall Grandall had the 2nd highest WAR of all catchers in baseball. It’s fine if you think the Brewers will be worse this year but maybe actually know something about the players you are talking about.
The brewers will win 100 games this year easily
100 games easily? That’s laughable. Nobody is going to win 100 in the Central and especially not easily win that many. Let’s look at facts. Your rotation is a weakness. You had players play above their career norms last year so you can expect some regression. Don’t get me wrong I’m not saying they will fall off the face of the Earth, but it’s safe to assume you will have a couple of guys that return closer to their mean this year. You were also very fortunate with injuries last year so chances are you won’t be as fortunate this year. To top it off this is the Brewers who have a history of having a great season and then fading back with the hype the following years. Yeah history doesn’t really matter too much, but it is a very safe bet that Milwaukee won’t hit 100 wins, and probably won’t come close to 100. More like 87-91 wins.
Love that you’re banking on the PECOTA projections. Yeh, just keep believing the Cubs will be in last place – hilarious!
Anyone else having app crash issues the past few days? I’m unable to see the articles, but the comments section still shows up, but crashes after a few minutes. iPhone 6s. I’ve already installed the update and it didn’t help at all.
Can’t wait for the 2019 season to start! Especially the Cards coming to Wrigley. Go Cubs!
I wonder if it’s possible for all 5 teams to go 81-81 that’ll be hilarious to see who gets the division in that tiebreaker
Milwoke
STL
CIN
Chic
Pit
The nl central this year should be the most competitive division in mlb. Go reds!
This is the best division in baseball and it’s going to be a slugfest. I cannot wait to see what happens. Do we really have to wait another month?
I agree. The NL Central and NL East with the Braves, Phillies (especially if they add Harper), Mets and Nats are easily the best divisions in baseball top to bottom
1. Cubs
2. Cards
3. Brewers
4. Reds
5. Pirates
Cubs
Reds WC
Cards WC
Brewers
Pirates
I agree with this dude.
No way two WC come out of the Central, they will be lucky to get one. With the West still weak, teams like Colorado ought to be encouraged. There may be 9 teams better than them in the Central and East, but that doesn’t mean if they win 86 they won’t be a WC team.
I doubt colorado will be good enough with a resurgent padres team, and the dodgers. Maybe it’s their history, but I just don’t see them making the playoffs again. If anything the second wild card would come from the east since they at least get to beat up on the Marlins 18 games each.
PECOTA is a joke! Too bad Vegas doesn’t use these projections. If they did I’d take my life savings, basically my U2 collection, take the over on the 79 Cub wins and then match my Bono stuff with more Bruce Springsteen, Rolling Stones and Patti Smith collectibles.
A Cub fan that likes U2. That’s like a turd with a puke fetish.
Love it
Seems like your U2 collection might be your life savings. To bad you didnt invest in Yugioh or Pokemon cards back in the day.
Too bad you didn’t pay attention in English class.
1. brewers
2. cubs
3. reds
4 card
5 ect
That’s the way I see it. Unless the Cardinals trade for either another hitter or at least a number 2 Starter.
We don’t need to trade for a pitcher. Why trade when Keuchel is on the market? Unlike the brewers, reds, and cubs the cards actually have deep and good starting pitchers. The brewers have trash and the reds rotation is 2 good ones and meh. As for the cubs they just don’t have pitching depth. The cards rotation will be fine regardless, but if they really decide they need a number 2 then save the prospects and sign Keuchel. As for the brewers they aren’t going to win the division. They had players that had career years and hardly had any injuries. It is a solid bet that a couple of their guys in the line up will come down to earth a bit this year, and they will have some key injuries a long the way. Plus, it’s fricken Milwaukee! They have one great season and then fall off. That is the Brewer way.
Cubs
Cards
Reds
Brewers
Pirates
1. Cubs
2. Cards
3. Brewers
4. Reds
5. Pirates
This is going to be a fun summer with a lot of good teams. Nice to have a division where no one is tanking makes for good baseball. Go Brewers.
Milwaukee is kidding themselves with their starting pitching. Add to the fact their best starting pitcher is not a starter (Hader – the next Chris Sale), they are poised for a 3rd place.
Cincy still isn’t good enough.
Cubs are the team to beat. Still deep, still the team to watch out for. Cardinals can definitely take them on.
The roof will cave in on Pittsburgh in 2019.
I couldn’t agree more. The brewers can’t repeat what they did last year, and the cubs are pissed off
I’d be more concerned about St Louis than Milwaukee. Their second half play last year plus the addition of Goldschmidt should have every NL team on-notice.
Plus a full season without Matheny bungling things, a good hitting coach from Houston where there offense is lit, and Clapp on staff. With Clapp they have the two former Memphis managers coaching up players they know very well.
Though the cards made some good moves, I don’t believe that put them over the top for the division. The Cubs have the best rotation in the division, but still have question marks. I don’t think Kris Bryant will be the stud everyone expects, Hayward will never live up to that contract, will yu darvish be healthy? The reds made moves to invest in the trade deadline, And yhe pirates are still the pirates.
To me the division winner is the Brewers. The bullpen and offense are great. The SP is the question mark. CAN Nelson come back strong and build off what he did in 17? Can Burnes, Peralta, or woodruff emerge as dominant a starter?
Brewers +3
Cards
Cubs
Reds
Pirates
healthy nelson is huge for us too.
I picked the brewers but cubs are definitely up there. An of course the cardinals are sorta like that NE Patriots. They can fill their team up with a bunch of white store clerks and somehow still be good each year
Stl added Norris at the start of ST and Holland on opening day 18′.
A late Kimbrel signing COULD make them favorites.
Mil
Stl
Chc
Cin
Pit
Cubs rotations are definitely not the best in the division. Cards will finish in 1st this year. Hopefully Mo will eat some contracts and we will have a pretty good bullpen to go along with a good rotation and lineup.
Cards
Brewers
Cubs
Reds
Pirates
79 wins is a joke,that said 3 team race…cards cubs brewers.will be very tight no doubt..in the end trade deadline may win this one.whoever make the smartest move not nessacerily splashiest but right fit move eeeks out the divison imo
wow, its crazy people think the reds are better than the pirates or have a legit shot at the post season. imo theyd be extememly lucky to hit .500. but hey anything can happen.
cards and brewers will be one and two. pirates and cubs three and four all fighting for a post season spot.
reds will be better than last year but still well under .500.
Agree 100%. Not sure why people act like adding Kemp and Puig with a handful of #3/4 starters is going to make them a winner. I think majority of the new faces in the rotation will be a disaster at Great American.
Lol so many bandwagon fans for Milwaukee on here. No chance they have the same season. 1. They traded their best defensive player. 2. Their ace went to Houston. Their bullpen was extremely lucky. It is best compared to the Cubs in the late 90s. Kerry wood mark prior Carlos Zambrano. Was basically 3 aces. Then their bullpen somehow got haves with kevin Gregg and rod beck(may he rest in peace) in this case it’s the other way around. Medicore to below average starting rotation then a dominant bullpen.
Their was rumors of Milwaukee trading for MadBum. If they were serious contenders. They would have pulled the trigger. Granted they dont have what it takes to get him. They barely have what it takes to get Jeff Samardzija. If they got him he’d be their ace lol. Currently he’s a #4 pitcher in reality he’s an emergency spot starter on 29 other teams.
Weren’t you the same guy who said the brewers didn’t have enough pitching all of last season? How did that work? The Brewers do have enough to get a 1 year rental from MadBum as well. You’re telling me a package centered around Corey Ray, Corbin Burnes couldn’t get it done? Maybe the brewers just don’t want to meet SF price. Also the pitching for the brewers last year got through without Nelson and Davies. Not saying they will be dynamite but adding those two back into a rotation that has Chacin, Anderson and one of the young arms is solid. All the Brewers have done is added Grandal, Nelson and Davies and a full season of Moose to a team that won the NL Central last year. I like those odds.
Lol Nelson and Davies are not as good as you think. And again. They lost their ace to Houston. They will have three #4s and two #5s. Chase Anderson is their new ace returning he wouldnt be a #3 on most teams. Hader will not repeat what he did last year. Yelich won the mvp based on the last 6 weeks of the year. He had an average year the first 4 and a half months. Baez who was snubbed and most know this. Was consistant all 6 months of the season. Whether it was that he was on fire or cold as ice. He played consistant all year. He was snubbed on another gold glove again too. Whether it was at short or 2nd. Doesnt matter he should have won somewhere.
You’re also a bandwagon fan to the brewers. You’ve only been a fan since 2008. That’s sad. I bet you dont even know who Brant Brown is. Lol. You probably never heard of Jeremy Burnitz
You should just really stop while you are behind.. The 08 in my name is actually for Ryan Braun not even close to how long I have been a fan. The fact you don’t think Yelich was the clear MVP shows your Cubs bias. Your argument of “Yelich won because of a hot 6 weeks” is laughable. So should we just not count those 45 games? Just take out over 1/4 of the year just because.. Our “ace” Miley threw a total of 80 innings and had a 1.5 WAR. Davies was a 17 game winner in 2017 and Nelson finished 9th in Cy Young voting that year. While they aren’t studs they are upgrades over what we had to use last year and we still won the division. I just enjoy when Cubs fans use the excuse “the Brewers ended the year hot” or “they got lucky”. So if that’s the case why not just play 120 games if you don’t want to count the portion when teams get hot? The Cubs didn’t do much of anything this offseason and the Brewers added a legit catcher and a full season of Moose without losing anyone of significance. Please don’t call Miley significant. Davies and Nelson EAISLY replace him.
Brewers pitchers got lucky last year. Ok, what about the year before that? The pitching is what kept them in it in 17’ it was the bats that failed. Brewers will slug with anyone in baseball right now and they have a deep pitching staff which in today’s market is necessary. Miley was an opener, not an Ace, he pitched 80 some innings. St. Louis got better this offseason, Chicago didn’t really do anything other than hope guys got healthy which is the same as MKE getting Nelson back.
Thanks a pantsload for your expert analysis of a team you only watch when they’re beating the Cubs in important divisional games.
i don’t think the Cubs suck. You seem to live your life solely to look for any MLBTR thread that might casually or otherwise mention the brewers in order to crap on them, based on whatever illogical metric you think applies. If you had a girlfriend, she’s probably long gone, sir.
We’ll see how the season plays out, shall we? See you in September.
The real answer is “Whomever Remains Healthy”. This is a hard division to predict because even the worst team has potential.
I voted Cardinals. They had a great run until the last two weeks when they stopped hitting. They didn’t make wholesale changes but made a big one that effects every other aspect of the game when they went out and got Goldschmidt who is capable of carrying a club. They don’t have a glaring weak link.
The Cubs have to remain healthy. If they do, they could walk through MLB. They have potentially great pitchers all around. Except for Javier Baez and Ben Zobrist, every position player had a down year yet they were still a force. I feel that Joe Maddon gets the most out his players but, over-manages at times too.
There’s too many IFs among the Brewers SP rotation. If it doesn’t get the innings, it could burn out the pen. It has the most potential in MLB to implode. The infield defense doesn’t look that good at first glance. Lets see what it looks like after spring. All that being said. The Brewers do have a great team and the team looks better than it did last season when they barely missed the WS.
The Pirates are not “also rans”. They have good pitching and potential for great pitching. The OF looks great and I think every IF has a great potential to break out.
The Reds have had the best off-season I have seen in many years. Unfortunately, they still need to go much further. The pen looks like a weak link and the OF needs to be sorted out. They made so many changes, they may not mix well this first season.
The 2018 Cubs reminded me of the 2015 Cardinals. Lots of wins, but you could just tell that the team was going nowhere in the playoffs. They were tired at the end and had little firepower left. And with the position players, you are right, many had a down year. But, in the cases of Schwarber, Russell, Almora, Heyward, their 2018 was more of a normal year than the flashes they’ve shown. And Contreras has the problem of being a catcher and being productive offensively. He is capable, but there are very few that can produce at that position for a sustained amount of time. To me, the Cubs have just as much uncertainty as the Brewers and the Cardinals. If you could sum up the Cubs worries in one word I’d say “Potential”.
The Cardinals (disclosure: my team) have a different problem. Instead of a few giant question marks on potentially great players with little behind them to challenge them for a spot, they have a thousand little question marks with tons of equally talented players behind them. The team looks better than it has in years, and Ozuna seems healthy as well, which is a huge boost they were missing last year (I think 90 wins could have easily happened was he good the whole year). But you have Martinez bouncing around not able to focus long enough to be a starter, you have Hicks who is an immense talent but still figuring out how his stuff plays, Miller, who is always a health concern, Carpenter, who is streaky, Two right fielders (Martinez, O’Neill) better than the starting one (Fowler), a 2B that might hit .280 or .220. If I could sum up the Cardinals problems in one word it would be “consistency”. Consistency on offense, consistency on defense, and consistency in pitching. Hopefully some consistency in coaching will straighten that out.
Reds are definitely improved, maybe the biggest jump. But Votto is a year older, and those pitchers are not aces and that park is not any bigger. I look for the Reds to be on the outside looking in but I expect them to make the difference in one of the top 3 teams playoff chances in a late series in Cincinnati.
Pirates also are going to get more wins than people think.
Brewers are the champs, we all know their weaknesses. Mediocre SP propped up by good defense and a great bullpen. But Jeffress and Hader will not have years like that again. Jeffress had an ERA+ of 317 over 76 innings, and Hader had a 3.78 ERA in the second half. No way they keep their dominant production up over the course of a year, bullpen pitchers are not that consistent and the more the division sees them the more exposed they get. I would look for Jeffress to come back down to his career numbers and Hader to, again, get exposed as he’s used more and more. Take those two guys a little more out of the equation and all of a sudden you’ve got a very beatable team, because that pitching will get worn out QUICKLY, especially with the Cardinals and the Reds offenses for 38 games. .
I’ll say (in my biased opinion):
Cards 93
Brewers 92
Cubs 89
Reds 79
Pirates 76
Maybe you’d better look a little closer at the Reds bullpen.
I noticed that MLB preseason rankings gives the Cardinals a 40% chance of making the play offs in 2019. Citing the big question marks on their starting pitching and right field as their main areas of concern. Goldschmidt was a great one year pick up. However, John Mozeliak and Bill DeWitt’s main line each year is this. “We have the money and we have the resources to make major moves!” They never make enough sufficient moves to impact the team every year. If that statement is true, and the rankings are true, Mozeliak should be on the hot seat all season to insure the Cards not only make the play offs, but contend for the NL Central crown. If he can’t produce, he needs to be fired. If he can produce??? That will be fantastic.
Yeah, I hate 19 winning season in a row or whatever it is. Stop with the Mo hate. You are so far off base.
I love how people have counted the Cubs out. It’s gonna be another year of pleasure watching the rest of the Central be disappointed yet again. WSChamps19 Go Cubs!!
I am a Brewers fan and I was pretty happy with 2018.
The amount of uneducated fans that comment on the Brewers is ridiculous. I constantly hear on here “everything went perfect for the Brewers in 2018”. If the people that commented that actually paid attention to the team last season, you would know that this could not be more wrong. Where should we start?
1. Jimmy nelson, our best pitcher, hurt all season.
2. The amount of pitchers that started games due to injuries was unreal.
3. Under-performing offensive years from the second base, shortstop, and catchers position, to the point where we had to send our starting shortstop to the minors.
4. Schoop was a disaster.
5.. Braun was barely healthy.
6. Very disapointing season from a reliable pitcher from 2017 in chase anderson.
7. Overall, the amount of injuries this team had was unreal.
People really need to watch the team before they comment “oh what a lucky year, everything went well”
I understand what you’re saying, but I think what people mean isn’t that everything was perfect, but rather, the things the Brewers keyed on (Hader, Jeffress, Yelich, Cain, etc.) stand a very small chance of being replicated . Even Yelich’s numbers were such a jump from his career trajectory that you have to expect some regression from him. If our analysis stopped there, you would see the Brewers with 5-6 less wins than the Cards or Cubs. But, contrary to what you have been telling yourself, somehow the Brewers are right at the top of everyone’s list. That’s why I have them within a game of the Cardinals at the end and 3 games ahead of the Cubs. I think the little things that went wrong all come back but the big things that went right come back down as well. So don’t be jaded, we’re projecting here.
As for number 3), that sound awfully subjective. As it goes, Arcia’s 89 OPS+ season in 17 was the aberration and last year was more the norm (have you seen his swing? It’s so long, there’s no way he’ll hit anything consistently unless he shortens up). Hiura is on his way, so he’ll help at 2B, and the C production wasn’t nearly as bad as you make it out to be.
Kratz and Pina had a combined 1.2 WAR last year. Grandal had a 3.3. Is reasonable to think that Grandal’s power numbers increase slightly also with the move to Miller Park which is great for lefties. Also why can’t Cain and Hader replicate what they did last year? Cain’s numbers weren’t far off at all from his career lines and his defense will always be there. Arcia is only 24 and hit .360 in the postseason. While I don’t think he lights the world on fire it’s completely reasonable to assume his terrible line in the 2018 regular season.
Arcia has a lot of talent, no doubt. But I just think that when you have 2 seasons around 60 OPS+ and one around 89+ that was your best, it is safe to assume that you might not be a stellar hitter.
Grandal will definitely be a good pickup and an improvement. But 1.2 WAR out of the catcher’s spot is not dismal by any means.
With Cain I just see normal age regression, and Hader, I mean more along the lines of he is bullpen pitcher, and inherent there are problems with exposure. And with so many other good teams in the division, I think he stands a good chance of being exposed more this year. Even in the second half he was giving up more runs (again, from dominant to pretty much dominant, but still).
You don’t even want to compare injury lists with the cards. You aren’t even on the same planet with them. How many rookie pitchers started or pitched for the cards last year? The answer is significantly more than the Brewers. As for Braun get used to it he used roids and a broken down body is the expected result. Chances are he will continue to be broken down and he only has himself to blame. As for Anderson…normally reliable? He has had 3 years of an ERA over 4, last year it was 3.93 so barely missing a 4th year, and he had 1 good year in 17. So, how is that normally reliable when 4 out of 5 seasons have been pretty bad to terrible for him? More likely Anderson had a career year in 17 and came back down to earth, just like a couple of your hitters will probably do this year. I’m not saying you are going to have guys hitting .240. Just saying you had players hit well above their career norm. Chances are a couple of them will put up lesser numbers this year. Chances are Yelich also will not be able to duplicate his numbers because they were insane last year. No, I am not bashing Yelich at all he is a beast. Just saying that it is highly unlikely he will equal his numbers from last year. In other words don’t get too hyped thinking that your list of negatives from last year are going to be fixed and you are going to be a juggernaut this year. It’s baseball you might fix a few things, but there are always other things that went better than expected for you last year that could easily fall apart this year.
Can anyone explain why the Reds aren’t in on Harper?
Brewers had everything go right for them. Aguilar played like the second coming of hank Aaron for the first have and yelich went insane down the stretch. Seemed like the injury bug didn’t bite any of their core guys too bad either. They’ll be good but I can see them taking a pretty big step back this year. Cubs are a mystery to me if they stay healthy they will be at the top, if not though, they don’t have much depth especially in the roto. Should be a great season, Viva La Birdos!!
uneducated and pure stupid comment
Sorry but Kinser is correct. A six-week smoking hog stretch has Brewers fans thinking it will happen like that all season. They are horribly mistaken and the Brewers finish in 3rd or even 4th.
Please share what smoking 6 week stretch you continue to reference. The Brewers went 20-7 in September and if you go back 2 weeks into August their best 6 week stretch was 28-17. Brewers couldn’t go 28-17 in a 45 game stretch again? Like all Cubs fans like you fail to mention is the Cubs went 12-11 down the stretch 3 1/2 weeks. It was enjoyable watching the Cubs choke it away though I have to admit.
I honestly don’t get the reds hype. They are going to finish 20 wins away from the next closed team in the Central
1. Cardinals
2. Brewers
3. Reds
4. cubs
5. Pirates
Everyone is making predictions so here is mine. I don’t know. Nobody knows. They are all good let the season play out. We can all pick Chicago Milwaukee or St. Louis to finish first in any order but then Cincy might sneak in. Gonna be a fun year in baseball. I don’t really see a clear winner in any division
Houston and L.A.
1. BREWERS
2. CARDINALS
3. PIRATES
4. CUBS
5. REDS
It makes sense to expect lower win totals from the Brewers and the Cubs…and the Cards and probably the Pirates as well, mainly because they won’t be bloating their win totals by playing their interleague schedule againstthe horrendous AL Central. Cincinnati won’t provide easy wins this year, nor will the Pirates. A number of the NL Central teams can be better teams but win fewer games. Not a contradiction.
The thing about the Reds is that a lot of divisional wins for the Cubs, Cards, and Brewers came against them, and it’s not going to be easy this year. The Cubs and Pirates have also done little to nothing to improve their teams. So I’m admittedly a Reds fan and an optimist, but I think a lot of people are going to be surprised.