This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.
After the worst season in franchise history, the Orioles’ only must-have for the winter was new organizational leaders.
Major League Signings
- Nate Karns, RHP: One year, $800K, up to $200K more in incentives
- Total spend: $800K
Trades and Claims
- Selected SS Richie Martin from A’s with 1st overall pick in Rule 5 Draft
- Acquired IF Drew Jackson from Phillies for international signing bonus pool money after he was selected from Dodgers with 11th overall pick in Rule 5 Draft
- Acquired outfielder Dwight Smith Jr. from Blue Jays for $500K in international signing bonus availability
- Selected RHP Taylor Grover from Reds with 1st overall pick of Triple-A phase of Rule 5 Draft
- Claimed IF Jack Reinheimer off waivers from Rangers
- Claimed 3B Rio Ruiz off waivers from Dodgers
- Claimed IF Hanser Alberto off waivers from Giants (first, from the Yankees)
- Claimed LHP Josh Osich off waivers from Giants (later designated for assignment)
Notable Minor League Signings
- Alcides Escobar, Eric Young Jr., Jesus Sucre, Carlos Perez, Christopher Bostick, Zach Vincej, Omar Bencomo, Gregory Infante, Josh Lucas, Jace Peterson, Bo Schultz
Notable Losses
- Adam Jones (still unsigned), Caleb Joseph, Tim Beckham, Lucas Luetge, Pedro Alvarez, Colby Rasmus (still unsigned)
[Baltimore Orioles Depth Chart] [Baltimore Orioles Payroll Outlook]
Needs Addressed
The Orioles as we’ve known them are no longer. General manager Dan Duquette – hired in 2011 to replace Andy McPhail – is gone. Manager Buck Showalter – hired after the All-Star break in 2010 – is gone. Franchise cornerstone Manny Machado – drafted in 2010, in the majors since 2012 – plays in San Diego now. Adam Jones’ tenure was longer than all of those departees; after 11 seasons in Baltimore, he, too, has (likely) played his last game as an Oriole. Four cornerstones from the past eight-or-so seasons, all jettisoned during a four-month period between July 18th and November 3rd – so it’s understandable if those in Baltimore are still feeling a little shell-shocked.
The GM seat remained empty for a curious-long while, but in mid-November Mike Elias finally arrived from Houston. By all accounts, Elias is a good hire, and there’s no reason to think he won’t accomplish at least their infrastructural goals: modernize front office processes, broaden the reach of player acquisition efforts and get the analytics department up to code. Four weeks in, Elias checked the first box of his offseason to-do by hiring Joe Maddon’s bench coach Brandon Hyde as the 20th manager in franchise history. In poaching Elias (from the Astros) and Hyde (from the Cubs), the Orioles now boast a leadership tandem – not coincidentally – from the two most recognizably-successful rebuilding efforts of the last decade.
In terms of player personnel, there really wasn’t much to be done at the outset of Elias’s tenure. With no hope of contending in the near future, filling out roster holes was not a terribly consequential undertaking. The club unsurprisingly pursued a mix of interesting younger players and cheap but solid veteran types to bolster an existing mix that still includes several high-priced holdovers.
If you like underdogs, this shortstop competition is a barnburner: two Rule 5 picks trying to make the jump from Double-A (Richie Martin, Drew Jackson), while minor league signee Alcides Escobar sets the bar. It’s been three years since Escobar produced more than 1 WAR over a season, and he’s never-not-once produced an even league-average wRC+, but he’s a “been-through-the-trenches” guy, he runs the bases well, and he generally won’t fumble the ball when it’s hit right at him. Eric Young Jr. is the best bet of the other minor league signees crack the roster, and he’s off to a good start this spring as he competes for a bench role with Joey Rickard and a slew of IF/OF opportunists like Rio Ruiz, Jackson, Jace Peterson, Steve Wilkerson, Christopher Bostick and Anthony Santander.
On the pitching side, Karns was a nice addition for a rotation lacking depth behind Dylan Bundy, Andrew Cashner, and Alex Cobb. Karns hasn’t pitched in a year-and-a-half, but last we saw him he looked good for the 2017 Royals, striking out 10.13 batter per nine while pitching to a 4.17 ERA (4.48 FIP, 3.71 xFIP). The Orioles get him for $800K this year – the only guaranteed salary the team handed out – and he’s under team control for 2020, making this a pretty good buy for Baltimore.
Questions Remaining
With new leadership in place, the encyclopedic reshaping of the Orioles begins, but there are questions in the short-term that loom even larger (in urgency, if not importance). For instance, how many more chances are they willing to give Chris Davis to get within shouting distance of league-average before donating his roster spot to a youth? Four seasons at $23MM a pop is a lot to eat, but there is a sunk cost threshold, and after a .168/.243/.296 -2.8 rWAR season in 2018, that line can’t be far off.
It seems almost silly at this point to ask whether Davis could regain enough of his former on-field value to allow the team to shed some of his remaining contract. Perhaps that’s still possible, though. And the O’s can hope more realistically that some other players will perform well enough to dump salary during or after the season to come. Bundy, Cashner, and Cobb could all be of mid-season interest. Jonathan Villar and Mark Trumbo might end up holding some appeal. And relievers Mychal Givens and Richard Bleier (if he can get back to health) could be fairly significant assets. There’s not a primo trade piece in the bunch, save maybe Givens, but it’s fair to wonder how long Elias will wait before stripping this team for parts.
Otherwise, the open questions facing this roster are largely those you’d expect from a team in this position. The roster is loaded with players who have yet to establish themselves fully (if at all) in the majors. In most cases, it’s understandable that the organization has decided to allow some space for young players to sink or swim. There’s an argument to be made, though, that more could have been done in the rotation — particularly since Karns has a checkered recent health history.
Mike Wright Jr. looks poised to snag a starting spot, but it’s a little curious the O’s didn’t further explore the bargain bin, especially given their lack of near-term upside arms. David Hess, Yefry Ramirez, John Means, Josh Rogers and Jimmy Yacabonis will happily take the innings, but there’s value even in a rebuild to having vets around. Bounceback candidates such as Drew Pomeranz may have shied away from Camden Yards, but giving a minimal guarantee to someone like Ervin Santana (who settled for a minors deal) might have made sense. Even now, James Shields, Bartolo Colon, former Orioles Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez, and others are all just a phone call away.
It would be hard to blame Elias and his staff for seeking some time to evaluate the in-house goods before running out for upgrades that admittedly wouldn’t move the needle. The longer-term questions are of greater importance, and they relate to roster building strategy. The Orioles’ lack of existing international relationships hampered Elias’ ability to put to use their approximately $6MM in international bonus pool money, which they’ve instead doled out piecemeal through trades with the Twins, Phillies, Rangers, and Blue Jays. The development of those overseas connections will be worth tracking in the long-term, while a push to attain Cuban shortstop Yolbert Sanchez would be a nice short-term success were Elias to get him. An early decision point will come in June, when the Orioles make the first overall selection in the amateur draft. Whether it’s high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman or someone else, this is the first major test that Elias and company need to ace.
What to Expect in ’19
On the field, these Orioles aren’t likely to dent the 60+ game gap between themselves and the AL East leaders. Fangraphs projects only the Marlins to finish with a worse record, though they’re not exactly bullish on the Orioles either, pegged for 99 losses and a league-worst run prevention effort. There’s a decent collection of position player prospects who are or soon will be knocking at the MLB door – Yusniel Diaz, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, Ryan McKenna – but there’s absolutely no rush. In the meantime, Cedric Mullins, Richie Martin, Chance Sisco, Drew Jackson and DJ Stewart should have plenty of leeway to grind through any growing pains. It’ll be a year of tryouts as Hyde hammers the fundamentals and dreams of a future roster filled with athletic, positionally-flexible dirt dogs. Brass tacks: the Orioles are going to lose a lot of baseball games in 2019. Maybe not 115, but the over-under for 2020 draft position should be no higher than 1.5.
How would you grade their offseason? (Link for app users.)
Should be bargain bin hunting for NRIs with so many guys left on the market. No risk whatsoever in signing veteran starters to minor league deals
Totally agree. Heck, could even stockpile on veterans and trade them midseason
What a shock, the poll is dominated by Fs. I guess people here wanted the Orioles to sign Machado, lol? What more could a rebuilding team have done?
If you honestly believe the Orioles should have tried to win in 2019, then uh, sure, you could’ve given them an F. But everyone knows that isn’t what they’re trying to do. (Also commenters here have trashed the Orioles for years, even when they were winning.)
Why aren’t the O’s signing players they could eventually flip at deadline? And how come the O’s couldn’t make use of their international spending dollars? Missed opportunities.
yup, agreed brad. O’s should take a page out of the Rangers’ playbook at least. Is Texas expected to compete this year? No, they are not, but they are not sitting idly by when there’s a chance to improve the MLB roster in some capacity. The O’s should be following the “well, we can’t possibly get any worse” mentality in all of their dealings, because it is pretty much true. But they would rather stand pat. Sure, Lance Lynn for the Rangers may not end up being a decent sell-for-future-assets kind of guy around deadline time, but I still applaud TEX for going out and securing Major League talent, something the O’s just don’t care to do. You are definitely not going to win anything with what you have, so why not go a bit crazy. Call up Theo and say listen, I know your farm is weak but you are in win-now mode anyway, so let us take Heyward off your hands because, let’s face it, he’s not helping you win-now, and throw us two-three decent prospects in return for salary relief. Orioles should be trying crazy stuff like this.
The IFA things was a considerable failure. All that cap space and not a single notable signing, big wasted opportunity.
Playing the sign and flip game is usually dubious, but given what a buyer’s market it is I do agree that that could be another missed opportunity to amass some ‘future value’ as well.
I wouldn’t say F because their front office hires have been pretty good, and as a Cubs fan I like Hyde’s potential, but right now they’re sitting at a C at best because of the overall passivity.
You’re assuming there are a bunch of MLB-caliber players out there willing to take the 1-year deals on a team expected to chase 100 losses. There haven’t been a ton of those guys taking deals with strong teams or even middle-of-the-road teams. The one thing the O’s absolutely needed to do was clear out old front office staff and start clean. They succeeded there. Now the real rebuilding begins and it shouldn’t be happening with guys not good enough to get multi-year deals who are willing to play for peanuts in Baltimore and wait for a trade to a contender.
No one expected them to shop at the top, or to block a quality prospect (not that any are close yet), but at least put a product on the field. Sign some 6 year minor league free agents with some upside. Trade for an out of options player who is blocked. (Swihart, Pompey). Sign a vet that might fill innings and be a trade chip. When the entire off season can be summed up with “Nate Karns”, the team deserves a “withdrawn”, not a letter grade. They never showed up for class.
How are there so many Fs lol? They hired Elias and Hyde and moved toward a more analytical approach. Sure hey could have made a few more minor signings hoping guys pan out- but I don’t see a problem with giving young guys roster spots.
Being a fan of a club that also brought in a young, progessive, analytically minded GM from Houston, I can say bringing in Elias makes this seem like a solid offseason for the Orioles. Time will tell, but having the right front office in place makes all the difference, and it seems like the O’s are making the same organizational improvements that were such a big component of the early part of the Brewers rebuild.
Hopefully Os get on that international draft soon or they will be completely left in the dust
The site had to get rid of the thumbs down button because the same people who down voted every comment voted an F for the Orioles who have had a great offseason for a club entering a complete rebuild. They hired the best available options for the front office and manager and are poised to build up their minor league system and build some infrastructure in the foreign market(they had very little so they are way behind and it will take a few years to catch up). Not sure what else a team could do to start a rebuild…
I wanted to give them an F but i gave them a D based on trying to head in the right direction. The reason i rated them so low is that there is a lot of pieces that could have been had for cheap and used as trade bait later to help stock the farm. Maybe not getting top prospects but serviceble or lottery ticket prospects. Erik Goeddel Cargo, Adam Jones, Evan Gattis are a few names that are still out there that may not light the world on fire but should be able to be had for decent/cheap at this point and have good upside.
Adam Jones and Evan Gattis have good upside?
No way should they sit Chris Davis. They are paying him $23M a year. If he sucks, then so be it. He is just helping them improve the odds for the top pick. When players are complaining about not getting massive offers in free agency, they should all have to provide their thoughts on Chris Davis’s income. His salary is just as bad as Vlad Jr starting the year off in AAA.
St what point does the team just DFA Chris Davis and move on? Seriously?
Probably one more horrible season.
I give them a C+ and really can’t understand the “f” crowd. Maybe it’s the same people who say every team can spend 300m and think the Os should sign keuchel, kimbrel, etc right now.
The only reason I give a C instead of a B is that with their lack of competitiveness in signing trade chips – I’d have expected them to be more active on stocking up rebound players that had a high likelihood of being desirable trade fodder come july.then, depending who they grabbed in that regard, maybe they earn an “a”
As it sits, solid c+ and good start.
Not fair to give this new FO s “F”. They have taken a huge dumpster fire of a organization that is going to take A LOT to fix. So I give them no grade at all.
I gave them an f. They do have a dumpster fire. The firemen they brought in, are rookies at their jobs, so no one knows if they can put it out. They then traded to acquire international dollars, to use on the fire, then were unsuccessful using it. Now they are trading it away. The fire continues to burn, unchecked. You can have hope, not yet founded. Making a change beats standing pat. I’ll go get you some marshmallows.
Another clueless comment here stymeedone. This FO inherited 6MM bucks with little to no intl scouting department at the backend of the IFA signing period. There was no one available to give this money to. The best prospect left on the market is Yolbert Sanchez and we still have significantly more than the next team to go and get him. If you’re not going to spend it go out and acquire some lotto tickets. Make perfect sense to me. You’ll see a different philosophy in 2019.
They had 6 million when Sandy Gaston and not one but 2 Victor Mesas were available. So there definitely we’re people out there to give the money to, they just took somebody else’s.
That’s a considerable failure on the Orioles part.
That was the Duquette front office and that wasn’t during the offseason. Elias came in much later than that. Which is my exact point. VV Mesa or Gaston aren’t even apart of the equation.
Nor did this FO trade for a single dollar of international money. Which again is why I said his comment is clueless. Because it is. When you’re not seperating the offseason from the regular season and one front office from another you’re talking out of you know where.
Talking from a position of objectivity instead of homerism?
No homerism involved. No problem criticizing the orioles when it’s accurate. We’ve had plenty to criticize about over the years but lets keep the criticism accurate. When you’re talking out of your a.ss you’re talking out of your ass and I’m going to call it. Fair enough for you?
The O’s are following the Astros pattern for a rebuild. Fail mightily to guarantee the #1 overall pick for 2-3 seasons to build up the farm system with top notch players.
Mike Trumbo hit 47 Homers and still had just .850 OPS in 2016.
You-sure-do-overuse-hyphens-in-these-things.
Baltimore Orioles will only go as far as the Angelos family stays out of the baseball operations. That has been the key problem for years.
He hired Pat Gillick and when Gillick began to do his thing, Angelos stepped in time and time again and countermanded Gillick’s decisions. That is the real reason Gillick only stayed until his original 3 year contract was over.
Sorry Orioles fans, you have a very long wait for even a sniff at a championship.
I grew up in the 70s and 80s as an Orioles fan, living just outside DC. I stopped rooting for the Os when I saw what Peter Angelos did to the Ripken family and the Os’ farm system, and I vowed to stay away until Angelos was gone.
If you want to know the problem with this entire franchise, its first name begins with Peter, and its last name rhymes with “Dangelos.”
That was the saddest Offseasin in Review i’ve ever read. I like the FO and manger hires, as well as the push to get up to date in their international and analytics departments, but those will take time to round out. I can understand being leery of signing FAs to even cheap minor league contracts, to a point. The foolish Davis contract has saddled them from the onset, as has the shorter, but still bad, Trumbo contract. The lack of history in the international market is a large reason the O’s are where they are at now. Stubbornly refusing to make use of a viable pipeline of talent says a lot about ownership.
What the O’s desperately need over the next 3-4 years, is to hit on a very high number of draft picks. Their scouting/analytics departments need to be spot on. Every bit as important is spending their international pool money on quality, not just quantity.
There is zero reason the O’s should even be mentioned in the next 3 years when considering long term elite free agents. Building from the ground up, which is exactly what they have to do, should never include those types of expenditures. Flipping 1 year contracts on free agents need to be their go-to signings from that pool.
One of the major keys to success is a total lack of even mentioning ownership. The Angelos need to remove themselves from any media connection with the day to day operations of the organization. Allow those in place to hire/fire/sign/trade any and all assets from rookie league all the way to FO matters.
I gave ’em an “A”, since they’re obviously going for a second straight #1 pick. It makes sense because there’s a wealth of talent at the top of each round after the first. That’s how the Astros did it, assembling the supporting cast for the #1’s.
To me at this point it’s a C, with room to improve. There are still decent veterans out there looking for a club, if the O’s add a few of them on minor league or minimal major league deals, then that would substantially improve their grade. Generally I get that, when you are going to lose 90+ games anyway (and that might be generous) that there is no point in giving playing time to veterans in favor of young players, but really who are those young players that are potentially a part of the next good Orioles team?
On a related note, play Davis every day. Maybe he hits enough to be able to get rid of at least some part of his contract. (Or, if you are cynical, maybe he gets hurt and insurance covers you). Or, and it’s a long shot, maybe he offers a buy out if he is just so terrible that he doesn’t want to play anymore. Again, at this point those ABs arent really needed for any young players, hopefully this time next year that’s not the case.
Davis is likely an adderal addict. Adderal is a legal PED. Used about 10% in baseball players by exception. Normal societal rate is 5%. He was on it leading up to his big contract. I wonder if he is still on it or has come off it. It would explain a lot of things with him.
If you want to read up on adderal, g o o gle adderall, toronto star baseball. It’s a great read.
Adderall doesn’t make that big of a difference in someone’s ability. I personally have an adderall prescription. Davis has gotten his TUE back for adderall and still sht the bed. The shift and his poor ability to make contact are significantly bigger reasons.He’s older and slower and his profile had shown cracks before any of that. He’s finished IMO. He’d have been out of baseball by now if it weren’t for the ridiculous contract.