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2018-19 Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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This is the final post in MLBTR’s annual series reviewing the offseason efforts of every team in baseball.

The 2018-19 offseason marked yet another winter of measured free-agent spending and luxury-tax-motivated trades for the Andrew Friedman-led Dodgers.

Major League Signings

Trades and Waiver Claims

Extensions

  • Clayton Kershaw: One year, $28MM (bringing his total contract to three years, $93MM)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Dodgers organizational depth chart][Dodgers payroll information]

Needs Addressed

We’ve reached the point where it should be accepted that despite their extraordinarily deep pockets, the Dodgers aren’t going to flex their financial might to their fullest extent. That’s not a knock on the organization, which has been extremely successful under the current ownership group and front office regime, but simply an acknowledgement that the team’s days of MLB-leading payrolls look to be a thing of the past.

At the outset of free agency, we at MLBTR predicted that the Dodgers, who dipped under the luxury tax line in 2018, would be the team to agree to a lengthy contract with Bryce Harper. That was never particularly close to happening, as the Dodgers sought to sign Harper to a record-shattering annual value but only on a four- or five-year deal. Perhaps, if they can find a free agent amenable to such a structure in the future, the Dodgers will exceed the luxury line again, but it was reported this offseason that the organization has drawn up plans to avoid doing so for the next several seasons. The trade of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood and Kyle Farmer to the Reds in exchange for Homer Bailey — whom they immediately released — and a pair of prospects meshed with that directive.

The Dodgers’ first order of business this winter came in the form of finding a middle ground with Clayton Kershaw, who could have opted out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his contract. An extension was long viewed as a strong possibility, and in the end, the Dodgers locked up Kershaw on a deal even friendlier than many expected. Kershaw tacked an extra year and $28MM onto his preexisting deal in exchange for forgoing his opt-out provision, allowing the club to maintain one of the generation’s most dominant pitchers at an affordable rate. Injuries have begun to take their toll on Kershaw, and he’ll probably never sustain the level of dominance he once did, but there’s no denying his ongoing excellence when he’s been healthy enough to take the mound. A $31MM annual rate is nearly as steep as it gets for a pitcher in baseball, but Kershaw notched a 2.73 ERA in 161 1/3 innings and was worth 3.3 WAR (per both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference) in last year’s “down” season.

With Kershaw taken care of, the Dodgers began eyeing upgrades elsewhere on the roster. Rather than earnestly pursue the market’s top names, the Dodgers were aggressive in the second tier of free agency. A.J. Pollock was arguably the best non-Harper outfielder on the market and was compensated as such ($55MM in guaranteed money), while the flamethrowing Joe Kelly was regarded as one of the top non-Craig Kimbrel relievers. (His addition hasn’t paid early dividends, but Kelly’s .410 BABIP will regress over time, and metrics like xFIP (3.13) and SIERA (3.27) point to brighter days ahead.) Both were brought in on contracts with manageable annual salaries for a team with pockets this deep.

Having issued Yasmani Grandal a qualifying offer he unsurprisingly rejected, the Dodgers were involved in the J.T. Realmuto market for much of the offseason. Los Angeles, however, wasn’t willing to meet the prospect price tag put on Realmuto by the Marlins and instead shifted focus to old friend Russell Martin. While Martin’s bat is nowhere near what it once was, he maintained an elite walk rate and framing skills in 2018.

The other qualifying offer issued by the Dodgers went to lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu, who accepted the $17.9MM payday rather than test his strong but injury-riddled track record on the open market. At the time, it was at least worth wondering whether a team might’ve committed multiple years and a slightly higher guarantee (at a lower annual rate) to Ryu. However, given the manner in which the offseason played out, Ryu has to be quite happy with his decision to remain in Los Angeles at a premium rate. His return gave the Dodgers an even more enviable collection of rotation depth, joining Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, Julio Urias and Ross Stripling (among others).

Corey Seager’s return to the lineup only bolstered the Dodgers’ offensive potential, and Alex Verdugo’s ascension up the minor league ladder gives the Dodgers another high-upside bat upon which to dream. Verdugo’s rise (and the signing of Pollock) allowed L.A. to at least explore the possibility of trading Joc Pederson this winter, with the Braves and White Sox among the rumored suitors. However, there was apparently never anything that convinced the Dodgers to take the plunge, and Pederson remains on hand as part of a roster that features largely unmatched depth in both the infield and outfield.

Questions Remaining

That’s not to say that there aren’t questions surrounding the roster even in light of a hot start to the season. The lineup is deep and more dangerous than ever thanks to Cody Bellinger doing his best Ted Williams impression, but it’s hard not to look at the pairing of Martin and Austin Barnes behind the dish and wonder whether the duo brings enough offense to the table. The asking price for Realmuto from the Dodgers was surely steep, but imagining a lineup that pairs him with this version of Bellinger and the rest of the Dodgers’ potent bats seems almost unfair to opposing pitchers. Biting that bullet could’ve made this lineup into a veritable juggernaut, and it’s not hard to see the Dodgers seeking catching help come July. Perhaps catching prospect Will Smith will be MLB-ready by that point, but that’s hardly a given.

It’s a somewhat similar tale in the bullpen, where the Dodgers have ample options but relatively little in terms of established arms. Kenley Jansen has begun to show signs that he is, in fact, human after years of unhittable ninth-inning mastery, and while Kelly was brought in as an expected top-quality setup option, the Dodgers took their typical approach of cobbling together a relief unit beyond that point. Pedro Baez has been a good but sometimes shaky option in the ’pen for years. Dylan Floro is one of the quietest bargain finds the Dodgers have made.

But the mix of JT Chargois, Scott Alexander, Caleb Ferguson, Yimi Garcia, Josh Sborz and Jaime Schultz isn’t as solid as one would expect from a team with legitimate World Series aspirations. It’s true that Julio Urias and Tony Cingrani are also factors, but durability questions with that duo are even more pronounced than with most relievers. Adding another arm to the ’pen to deepen the mix would’ve been prudent, and it seems almost inevitable that the Dodgers will be in that market a couple months from now. There’s a clear on-paper match with Craig Kimbrel, but signing him would push the team into luxury tax territory, and Kimbrel’s asking price apparently hasn’t dropped to the point where Los Angeles (or any other club) is willing to jump on board. It doesn’t seem all that likely that they’ll be the team to sign him in the end.

2019 Season Outlook

The Dodgers entered the season as clear favorites in the National League West, and a poor start to the season for their primary competitors in Denver didn’t do much to change that line of thinking. Surprisingly hot starts from the upstart Padres and the wait-aren’t-they-kind-of-rebuilding Diamondbacks have added an interesting wrinkle to the division, but the Dodgers are still pacing the group. With the talent and depth cultivated by president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his staff, as well as that group’s willingness to make a trade to plug holes as they arise, the Dodgers are still the favorites to take the NL West. Whether they can finally get over the hump and convert a postseason berth into a World Series trophy is the true question.

How would you grade the Dodgers’ offseason? (Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

Comfortably atop MLB’s weakest division, the Indians spent the winter trimming salary without falling out of the conversation for a division title.

Major League Signings

  • Oliver Perez, LHP: one year, $2.5MM (includes vesting option)
  • Total spend: $2.5MM

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Cleveland Indians Depth Chart | Cleveland Indians Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

After a second consecutive postseason exit in the ALDS, this time at the hands of the Astros, the Indians and their fans are growing increasingly impatient as a 70-year World Series drought only grows longer. Entering the offseason, two glaring needs stood out: outfield and bullpen. Even with stars Michael Brantley and Andrew Miller on the team, both areas were weaknesses in 2018; now, with both gone, the Indians have had to look elsewhere to fill the void left by free-agent departures.

With a comparatively paltry total of $2.5MM in guaranteed money handed out, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and general manager Mike Chernoff were either unsatisfied with the slate of free agents, not given permission from ownership to spend, or both. However, the front office was active on the trade market, as a quiet offseason featured a smattering of low-key deals that they hope will strengthen the lackluster outfield and bullpen units that hindered last year’s team.

The first move to address the outfield came in a trade with Pittsburgh, with Jordan Luplow the biggest name involved. Though he has thus far failed to earn consistent big-league playing time, his new club should give him every chance to prove himself worthy of a spot in a Major League outfield. The other newcomer of note is Carlos Gonzalez, who is a solid bet to crack the roster this month — before the April 20 opt-out date in his minor league contract. Cleveland will welcome a healthier year from Leonys Martin, who nearly died from an infection just days after the Indians acquired him via trade. He was tendered a contract after embarking upon a remarkable recovery, which he completed this spring in time for regular duty to open the year.

With Carlos Santana making his return to Cleveland and the club adding Hanley Ramirez to serve as a designated hitter, those veterans will look to reestablish themselves as middle-of-the-order sluggers. Trade acquisition Jake Bauers is in the mix in those spots as well, though he’ll also venture into the outfield to find opportunities. The Indians parted ways with veteran Edwin Encarnacion and infielder Yandy Diaz in order to obtain Bauers, a one-time top prospect, from Tampa Bay in a three-team swap. Though Encarnacion, now 36 years old and owed $20MM, has been one of baseball’s most consistent hitters since 2012, his production dipped in 2018. Santana, his replacement, is more than three years younger and less expensive, thanks to $6MM of salary relief received in the swap.

There was also change behind the dish. Yan Gomes was shipped to Washington, shaving salary but leaving Roberto Perez as the lone proven catcher on the roster until a subsequent trade with the Mets brought Kevin Plawecki aboard. On the surface, the transition from Gomes to a combination of Perez and Plawecki is a downgrade. Neither Plawecki nor Perez can equal Gomes on offense or defense; it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the pair is able to match Gomes’s overall value.

While Oliver Perez was the lone recipient of a Major League contract, other minor moves yielded relievers who could play their way into a bullpen spot during the season. Small trades with the Rays and Marlins brought right-handers Chih-Wei Hu and Nick Wittgren to Cleveland, respectively. Hu owns an impressive minor-league track record, and Wittgren quietly turned in a strong 2018 season. Minor league signees James Hoyt and Tyler Clippard have significant MLB experience as well — the latter, in particular. It sounds as if Clippard could be an option to join the big league staff once he’s sufficiently rehabbed a pectoral injury sustained in Spring Training.

Questions Remaining

Though the Indians may very well maintain their hold on the top spot in the AL Central, their offseason moves have left many unsatisfied with the lack of additions to the bullpen and outfield. With Brantley, Miller and Cody Allen all donning new uniforms in 2019, some may argue that the team has gone backward.

Trade negotiations involving Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer provided one of the biggest storylines of the offseason, but neither pitcher ended up being moved. If the Indians are less competitive than they’d hoped, those rumors could circulate again this summer and certainly next winter, when Kluber and Bauer will be a year closer to free agency. At the very least, securing Carlos Carrasco through at least 2022 through a team-friendly extension indicates that he’s likely to remain in the fold.

The Indians’ outfield, comprised of Martin, Allen, Bauers, Naquin, and Luplow, remains dangerously thin. Bradley Zimmer, owner of considerable upside, is on track to rejoin the mix sometime in midsummer, though he is yet unproven and will not solve the Indians’ problems alone. Gonzalez should contribute in some capacity, but it seems that the potential payoff in the signing is limited. The entire outfield lacks a likely two-WAR player, and it’s reasonable to question the team’s complacency in this area.

Outside of Brad Hand, there are still no surefire options in the Cleveland ‘pen. Wittgren is the only member of the current bullpen who did not pitch for the Indians last season, which only serves to underscore the puzzling lack of additions to a unit that was questionable even before losing a pair of high-profile free agents. Terry Francona and upper management will rely on unproven commodities like Tyler Olson, Nick Goody, Cody Anderson, and Jon Edwards to give the team valuable innings in 2019. Some of those arms have had success in the past, but leaning heavily on this sort of piecemeal collection is what one would expect from a rebuilding club — not a team with postseason aspirations.

With that in mind, it’s fair to suggest the Indians have fallen behind the AL juggernauts in Boston, Houston, and New York. The team looked outclassed in last season’s ALDS versus the Astros, and it seems that any path to the World Series will run through one of the aforementioned cities. While the Indians’ star power is undeniable, it remains to be seen whether they have the depth to survive a dogfight with the AL’s elite. Still, a starting rotation as dominant as the Indians’ should give the team a fighting chance in a five- or seven-game series.

2019 Season Outlook

While the Indians may have been treading water during the winter, they remain the consensus favorites to win the notoriously weak AL Central. The starting staff is outstanding, with breakout candidate Shane Bieber joining four immensely talented rotation pieces, though the depth will be tested with Mike Clevinger poised to miss over two months of action. The Indians will need superstar infielders Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor to find their form — the former started slow; the latter is recovering from leg injuries — in order to fend off the upstart Twins, who have become a trendy pick to challenge for a postseason spot. Regardless, expect to see the Indians in the ALDS again in 2019, seeking to end the Majors’ longest existing World Series drought.

How would you grade the Indians’ offseason moves? (Poll link for app users.)

Offseason In Review: New York Yankees

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Yankees won the American League Wild Card game for a second consecutive season in 2018 but were bounced from the playoffs at the hands of their biggest rivals, setting up an active offseason for general manager Brian Cashman and his staff.

Major League Signings

  • Zack Britton, LHP: Three years, $39MM (includes $14MM option for 2022 season that must be exercised after 2020 season; if Yankees do not exercise option, a player opt-out is triggered)
  • J.A. Happ, LHP: Two years, $34MM (plus $17MM vesting/club option for 2021 season)
  • Adam Ottavino, RHP: Three years, $27MM
  • DJ LeMahieu, INF: Two years, $24MM
  • CC Sabathia, LHP: One year, $8MM
  • Brett Gardner, OF: One year, $7.5MM
  • Troy Tulowitzki, SS: One year, $555K
  • Total spend: $140.055MM

Trades and Waiver Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Bolstering a rotation that was rife with uncertainty following an up-and-down 2018 season was the Yankees’ top priority in the 2018-19 offseason. GM Brian Cashman acted quickly and decisively in the early-going, bringing back CC Sabathia for what will be the likely Hall of Famer’s final season and acquiring one of the best available starters on the trade market in the form of James Paxton. New York parted ways with vaunted prospect Justus Sheffield and another potential big league starter, Erik Swanson, in order to acquire the final two seasons of control over Paxton. While that move could ultimately prove beneficial to the Mariners, the Yankees have more immediate postseason aspirations and needed more certainty than the pair of promising young hurlers could provide. Paxton’s acquisition looks all the more critical now that it seems as though Luis Severino will be sidelined into the summer.

With Paxton and Sabathia secured, the Yankees sought to lock up one of their more successful midseason acquisitions in recent memory and managed to accomplish that goal at a lower rate — or, at least, on a shorter term — than many expected. J.A. Happ’s two-year, $34MM contract looks eminently reasonable for a pitcher who thrived to the tune of a 3.48 ERA over his past 690 MLB innings. Happ didn’t truly break out until his age-32 season, but he’s turned in four consecutive seasons of at least 25 starts with a 3.65 ERA or better in each of those years.

Outside of the rotation, the top need on a stacked Yankees roster was to round out the infield in the wake of Didi Gregorius’ Tommy John surgery. Gleyber Torres’ ability to play either middle-infield slot meant the Yankees didn’t need to limit themselves to solely exploring true shortstops. New York was frequently connected to Manny Machado and even took him to dinner in Manhattan to talk shop, but the team’s interest always seemed to be less serious than that of the Phillies or White Sox. By the time the Padres emerged as a late, serious bidder in the Machado auction, the Yankees were a distant memory. The team undoubtedly had a price at which it’d have jumped into the bidding, but that clearly was nowhere near the Padres’ $300MM mark and may not have even been especially close to the White Sox’ distant second-place bid of a reported $250MM.

Rather than pursue Machado, the Yankees rolled the dice on a player who was at one point as highly regarded as Machado is now. Troy Tulowitzki didn’t play a game in 2018 and hasn’t been a high-quality regular in nearly a half decade, but when the Blue Jays ate the remainder of his contract, the Yankees felt comfortable in taking a league-minimum gamble on the five-time All-Star. Tulowitzki’s addition was supplemented by a two-year deal with one of his former teammates, DJ LeMahieu, whose presence deepened an impressive collection of infield talent.

Around the time of the 2018 trade deadline, first base looked like it’d be an area of focus for the Yankees in the offseason, but Cashman and his lieutenants made a savvy bargain pickup of Luke Voit. While the Yankees surely liked Voit at the time of his acquisition — in a trade that sent since-DFA’ed lefty Chasen Shreve and Triple-A righty Giovanny Gallegos to St. Louis — no one could have foreseen Voit’s Ruthian surge down the stretch. The burly slugger captured the hearts of Yankees fans with a preposterous .322/.398/.671 slash and 15 home runs in just 161 plate appearances as a Yankee following the trade (and kicked off the 2019 season with a three-run round-tripper as well). Between Voit and the talented but fragile Greg Bird, the Yankees suddenly had a pair of useful and inexpensive options. LeMahieu, too, is expected to log some time at first base in 2019.

Though the bullpen was already robust even with some key names departing, the Yankees doubled down on their “too much is never enough” strategy with regards to their relief corps. Though David Robertson was allowed to depart, they re-upped Zach Zack Britton on a three-year contract and brokered another three-year pact with Adam Ottavino on the heels of a breakout season in Colorado. Pairing that duo with incumbent options like Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Dellin Betances and Jonathan Holder creates yet another uber-pen for second-year skipper Aaron Boone.

Of course, all of this writing so far has overlooked the Yankees’ first move of the offseason — one that now looks particularly prudent. Brett Gardner might not have filled a dire need outside of deepening an already strong roster, but injuries to Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks and ever-fading Jacoby Ellsbury have suddenly made the decision to retain Gardner an important one. It’s true that the organization could have found some more affordable depth late in the offseason — Adam Jones took a year and $3MM with the D-backs in March — but Gardner is a known clubhouse asset that the team trusts all over the outfield.

Certainly, the Yankees pursued other avenues to improvement this winter. They were never in on Bryce Harper despite the expected barrage of rumors connecting the two sides early in free agency. Harper said after signing in Philadelphia that he never heard from the Yankees, in fact. But the team was linked to the likes of Noah Syndergaard and Patrick Corbin (whom they also hosted for an in-person visit) as they sought to bulk up the rotation, and there was even talk of potentially shipping out Miguel Andujar for rotation help (in a scenario where they’d then sign Machado to man third base). The Yankees are always at the forefront of free-agent and high-profile trade rumblings, and this offseason, as one might expect, was no different.

Questions Remaining

Clearly, the biggest question surrounding the Yankees right now is whether they’ll be able to get their roster up to full strength. Severino signed a four-year, $40MM extension and was shut down first for a couple of weeks due to shoulder inflammation and now for six more weeks due to a lat strain. Hicks passed on free agency in favor of an extension that promised him an additional six years and $64MM on top of what he was already slated to earn in ’19. He went down with a back issue in Spring Training and has yet to play a game. Meanwhile, Stanton is out for much of April with a biceps strain and Andujar is faced with the possibility of surgery to address a labrum tear in his right shoulder.

That pileup of injuries, though, is precisely the reason that the Yankees added LeMahieu and re-signed Gardner despite lacking clear paths to regular at-bats for both players. Winning teams have placed an even greater emphasis than ever on depth in recent years (e.g. Dodgers, Brewers), even if it means that a full-strength roster would appear to have a number of logjams.

The Yankees are likely asking themselves whether they have enough depth in the rotation — particularly with Dallas Keuchel still unsigned. Paxton, Happ and Tanaka makes for a fine top three, but Sabathia’s durability isn’t what it once was and it’s hard to be confident that Severino will simply bounce back without any lingering effects or flareups once he does make it back to the mound. None of Paxton, Happ or Tanaka has a track record of 200-inning seasons, and Gonzalez will need some time to get up to speed in Triple-A. Internal alternatives like Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga and Chance Adams have promise but also come with the potential to leave the Yankees with a weak, overexposed rotation for an unacceptable period of time in a competitive three-team race.

It’s also a bit surprising that the Yankees’ top plan at shortstop was to simply hope for the best with an injury risk as significant as Tulowitzki, who logged just 66 games in 2017-18 and was last a convincingly above-average hitter in 2014. It’s true that if Andujar were healthy, Torres could’ve slid to shortstop with LeMahieu taking over at second base in the event of a Tulo injury, but they’d have had a much more stable middle-infield setting by making that Plan A and signing a glove-first backup. There was no shortage of affordable options, with Freddy Galvis, Jose Iglesias and Adeiny Hechavarria all on the open market. I’ll buy that the Tulowitzki gambit presented the highest possible value upside, but it was a reach to pencil him in for significant playing time while Gregorius mends. If Gregorius has any setbacks in his recovery from Tommy John, it’s easy to see the Yankees looking for middle-infield help this summer.

2019 Season Outlook

Injuries will test the considerable depth cultivated by the front office this winter. The Yankees are in a three-team race with the Red Sox and Rays — a pair of teams with notable questions themselves; Boston’s bullpen is the type you’d expect to see on a rebuilding club, whereas Tampa Bay is again banking on a series of creative bullpen machinations and affordable young position players. Neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox look as imposing early on as one might’ve expected midway through the offseason, but all three of the top dogs in the AL East have viable postseason chances. The Yankees are a lock to be in the mix for the playoffs, but the rate at which their current glut of 11 injured players can mend will determine the extent to which they need to augment the roster to keep pace come June and July.

How would you grade the Yankees’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.) 

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Reds promised to grow their payroll and backed up their bawdy talk with three significant trades.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart] [Cincinnati Reds Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

After four straight last-place finishes and five consecutive years of declining attendance, the Reds entered the offseason with a deserved sense of urgency. At 20,116 fans per game in 2018, the Reds drew roughly 5,000 less fans than local United Soccer League team FC Cincinnati, who not only set USL attendance records for the third straight year, but also became the first Cincinnati franchise to win a playoff series since 1995. Cincinnati craves a winner, and the Reds promised to move in that direction by raising their payroll by upwards of $30MM this winter. President of baseball operations Dick Williams’ bolstered the claim with an aggressive offseason strategy of proactive player acquisition.

The Reds checked all their boxes and proved true to their word with perhaps the splashiest move of the offseason, acquiring Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Matt Kemp and Kyle Farmer from the Dodgers for Homer Bailey, Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs. For a team struggling to draw crowds, adding an entertainment machine like Puig was a pretty nifty way to squeeze an extra few drops of value from the final $28MM owed Bailey, and they did so without compromising future spending. With Wood, Puig, and Kemp all on expiring deals, the Reds only took on about $7MM in payroll while turning one -1.5 rWAR player into three more viable contributors. That counts as a win in most books, even if it did cost them two promising (though not upper echelon) prospects.

Wood slots right into the middle of their rotation (when healthy), becoming the second new addition to the rotation after having swapped Tanners with the Nats earlier in the winter (giving up Rainey for Washington’s Roark). Puig becomes the new starter in right, and though Kemp’s resurgence was short-lived, he still provides ample right-handed power off the bench. Not for nothing, but Farmer is a piece, too. Admittedly, he’s no spring chicken at age-28 with only 97 big league plate appearances to his name, but he’s brought his bat to every level of the minors, including last year when he slashed .288/.333/.451 in Triple-A. Maybe that doesn’t knock your socks off, but grade it on a curve for catchers and he’s a fine depth option to stash in Triple-A.

As for the rotation, neither Wood nor Roark are world-beaters, but they fortify the base of an annually rickety starting crew and take some pressure off Luis Castillo. Still, after reportedly hunting many big-names stars this winter — Corey Kluber, J.T. Realmuto, Noah Syndergaard, James Paxton and free agent Dallas Keuchel — snagging a crowd of useful non-stars probably doesn’t match the highs of fan expectation after such bawdy talk from ownership.

The acquisition of embattled Yankees starter Sonny Gray thusly became their most significant get, especially given the three-year, $30.5MM extension that keeps him in Cincinnati through 2022. Moving from the AL East to a more subdued environment in Ohio should help as the Reds try to work their Matt Harvey magic to rehab Gray in the wake of a difficult stint in New York. Granted, the back-to-back 200-inning, sub-3.10 ERA seasons he posted with Oakland were way back in 2014-15, and the bandbox that is Great American Ballpark does him no favors. Nonetheless, this is a former All-Star with a top-three Cy Young finish and a 3.74 career FIP across 900 2/3 big-league innings. Teaming Gray with Castillo, Wood, Roark and Anthony DeSclafani, the Reds finally have a rotation that doesn’t include picking a name out of a hat every fifth day.

Charged with leading this crew is first-year manager and third-generation Cincinnati Red David Bell. The Giants’ former VP of Player Development returns home after having managed in the Reds system from 2009 to 2012. Though he’s an old-school baseball lifer, he plans to engage analytics and contemporary tactics, at the very least regarding usage of the newly-extended Raisel Iglesias. While nominally the closer, Iglesias will be Bell’s fireman, deployed wherever and whenever he’s needed most. The bullpen also added affordable lefty Zach Duke to a sneaky good group that includes David Hernandez, Jared Hughes, Amir Garrett, and Michael Lorenzen on the second line behind Iglesias. Minor league signees Bass, Boshers, Krol and Despaigne are depth options who can each claim at least some degree of success at the big league level.

The offense, meanwhile, was mostly settled at the outset of winter. Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Jose Peraza and Eugenio Suarez were in line to get the majority of infield at-bats, though a late-spring injury to Gennett has altered those plans for the time being. Tucker Barnhart will take the bulk of time behind the plate. Curt Casali reprises his role as the backup after nailing the trial run with a .293/.355/.450 output in 156 plate appearances in 2018. Adding Puig and Kemp to Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker means there’s plenty of bodies in the outfield, and top prospect Nick Senzel should join that mix once his injured ankle mends (and, perhaps, once he gets some more minor league reps in center field under his belt).

Off the bench, the additions of Iglesias and Dietrich complement the starters nicely. Iglesias completes the skill sets of Peraza and Genett as a glove-first option at short, and his presence is all the more important with Gennett potentially out into the month of June. Iglesias will log significant time at shortstop for the foreseeable future as the versatile Peraza slides to the other side of the bag in place of Gennett. Dietrich, too, will see some time at second base, giving the Reds a bat-first option there; he was nine percent better than the league average with the bat last year (and for his career) by measure of wRC+. Cincinnati is already plenty deep in the outfield, but Dietrich has his share of experience there as well should the need arise.

Questions Remaining

Let’s put this bluntly: the Reds don’t have a center fielder. What they have is a crew of potential contenders vying for the honor to learn the position on the fly. The spot may be earmarked for Senzel, but he’s a converted infielder who is still new to the position. Schebler entered the season with 358 career innings in center. Kemp is no longer an option there, and Puig has been primarily a right fielder. On Fangraphs’ Effectively Wild seasons preview, C. Trent Rosencrans of the Athletic called reliever and two-way hopeful Michael Lorenzen the best defensive center fielder currently on the Reds’ roster. The Reds will use him out there occasionally after seeing him hit .290/.333/.710 with four home runs in 34 plate appearances last season, but he won’t be a regular.

Senzel, currently Baseball America’s 10th ranked prospect overall, already transitioned from third base to second base in Triple-A, and there’s no shortage of examples of players who have made the jump from infield to outfield. Trea Turner learned center field on the fly for the Nationals after only a six-game tryout in Triple-A. Ketel Marte is making the transition for the Diamondbacks this season. There was hope the Reds fervor for contention would push them to buck current trends and start Senzel in center from the jump, but alas, Senzel was set to begin the year in Triple-A even before incurring the aforementioned ankle injury.

Without a true center fielder on the roster, the Reds turned to Schebler to begin the season there. If his .255/.337/.439 line across 107 games last year doesn’t inspire you, neither will his defense. He does have familiarity with the position having started and even earned passable defensive marks with -1 DRS, -0.9 UZR over what is, admittedly, a small sample size over the past three years. What’s disconcerting is he has not graded well defensively in right field in his career (0 DRS, -4.8 UZR), and that’s over more than 2000 frames compared to the sum total of 358 1/3 innings in center.

The most intriguing part about this race is there is no safety net. The Reds are all-in on this current arrangement, however it shakes out. Phil Ervin has some experience in center but has spent more time in the corners over the past few seasons in Triple-A. (He also hasn’t hit much in Triple-A or the minors.) Jose Siri, Stuart Fairchild, and TJ Friedl may be the next in line, but none had even played a game in Double-A prior to Opening Day. Taylor Trammell is among the game’s most highly regarded minor leaguers, but he’s at least a year and maybe two away. Schebler is the safe option, but Senzel figures to take over at some point. An eventual timeshare seems most judicious, but you’d like to see a high-end defensive options in the mix as well.

Aside from center, the biggest questions remain, remarkably, in the rotation. Absent from the rotation conversation above is the fact that Wood opened the season on the injured list. Tyler Mahle is a fine short-term replacement, and Wood shouldn’t be out long. Regardless, one of Bell’s first tests as a manager will be managing the workload of his new staff and keeping this crew healthy. Roark has been a workhorse, but the others haven’t surpassed 170 innings in a season since 2015 (if ever). Both Gray and Roark are also in need of a rebound season, and if that doesn’t pan out, the Reds’ alternatives lie in the same slate of internal options that prompted them to acquire three starting pitchers this offseason.

2019 Season Outlook

It’s been a miserable start to the season, although if there’s consolation for the 1-8 Reds, it’s that the Cubs (2-7) and Cardinals (4-5) haven’t exactly stormed out of the gates either. The Reds should be competitive enough for the rest of the year to lure more traffic through the turnstiles, but to outlast a deep field in the National League, they’ll need the starting staff to fire on all cylinders. That means Gray has to get right, Wood has to get healthy and, in a perfect world, Castillo would take a step towards acedom.

Although they increased payroll, the Reds’ offseason additions weren’t reckless. The numerous expiring contracts double as a kind of ejector seat for this early attempt at contention should the slow start turn into a true tailspin. Moving Puig, Wood, and/or Roark (among others) at the deadline could recoup some of the prospect capital it cost to acquire them. That’s a worst case scenario, really, and given their recent history, consider it a step in the right direction.

How would you grade their offseason? (Link for app users.)

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

Time will tell if the Phillies’ offseason spending splurge ends up being fruitful or perhaps “a little bit stupid.”  But arguably no team in baseball made a bigger push towards contending in 2019 than Philadelphia, as a number of headline-grabbing transactions should have the club battling for the NL East title.

Major League Signings

  • Bryce Harper, OF: Thirteen years, $330M
  • Andrew McCutchen, OF: Three years, $50MM (includes $3MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2022)
  • David Robertson, RP: Two years, $23MM (includes $2MM buyout of $12MM club option for 2021)
  • Total spend: $403MM

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Aaron Nola, SP: Four years, $45MM (includes $4.25MM buyout of $16MM club option for 2023)

Notable Losses

[Phillies organizational depth chart | Phillies payroll information]

Needs Addressed

Chronologically, the Bryce Harper signing was the last of Philadelphia’s major winter moves, as the contract wasn’t finalized until early March.  But we’ll begin here, since speculation about Harper dominated not just the offseason as a whole, but specifically the Phillies’ plans.  It was no secret that the Phils were aiming to land either Harper or Manny Machado, as perhaps no team was better positioned both payroll-wise and competitive desire-wise to make such an enormous signing happen.

It wasn’t always clear how many teams were involved in the markets for Harper and Machado, though the Phillies were a constant fixture both on the rumor mill and in behind-the-scenes negotiations.  Once Machado ultimately signed with the Padres for ten years and $300MM, the stage was set for the Phillies and Harper to finally find common ground.  The Athletic’s Matt Gelb and SI.com’s Tom Verducci both penned outstanding chronicles of the Phillies/Harper talks, and the clincher for the Phillies was their willingness to give Harper the very long-term commitment (with no opt-outs or options, and a full no-trade clause) he was seeking.  The result was a 13-year/$330MM deal that stood as the single largest contract in baseball history, until Mike Trout’s extension with the Angels set a new standard a few weeks later.

By all accounts, Harper is prepared to be a Phillie for life, giving the team a new high-profile face of the franchise for this next decade-plus.  Harper was willing to sacrifice some average annual value that he could have found elsewhere on a shorter-term deal, yet his top priority was both security and firmly setting down roots for the remainder of his career.  It could also be interpreted as a reaction to the slower nature of the modern free agent market — after hearing whispers about his impending free agency for years, and going through the process once, Harper was all too ready to never test the market again.

Harper was the final touch (or, to borrow from a groaner of a Scott Boras pun, the harp in the orchestra) on a transformative offseason for the Phillies.  GM Matt Klentak had an open checkbook and seemingly just about free rein to turn an 80-win team into a contender for the National League pennant.

Klentak’s first big swing wasn’t a signing, however, but rather a five-player trade with the Mariners that addressed multiple problems for the Phillies in one fell swoop.  Philadelphia unloaded first baseman Carlos Santana and his contract, opening up first base for Rhys Hoskins to return following Hoskins’ ill-fated sojourn as one of baseball’s worst defensive left fielders in 2018.  The savings on Santana’s remaining two years/$35MM created more flexibility to take on the $58MM/four years still owed to Jean Segura, who immediately upgrades what had been a very shaky shortstop position for the Phillies.  The trade also saw Philadelphia add bullpen depth in Juan Nicasio and James Pazos, while former top prospect J.P. Crawford (once thought to be the shortstop of the future) headed to Seattle.

Barring a sudden downturn from Segura, or Crawford blossoming into a superstar for the M’s, this deal looks like a solid win for Philadelphia.  Since Santana had become an extraneous asset for the Phils and it seemed like they were ready to move on from Crawford, the team essentially ended up adding Segura, Nicasio (owed $9MM in 2019) and a controllable arm in Pazos for only an additional $32MM in new money.  That’s a more than reasonable price for Segura, who has been one of the game’s best middle infielders in recent years — to put Segura’s value into perspective, his 11.9 fWAR since the start of the 2016 season is the virtual equivalent of Harper (12 fWAR).

With Hoskins now back at first base, this cleared the way for Andrew McCutchen to return to Pennsylvania as the Phils’ new left fielder.  It’s been a few years since McCutchen’s superstar prime with the Pirates, though the veteran is still a solidly above-average bat.  McCutchen’s defense is also no longer the detriment that it was in his later years as a center fielder, as he posted respectable glovework metrics as a right fielder last season with the Giants and Yankees.  Perhaps the only thing eyebrow-raising about this signing was McCutchen’s $50MM price tag.  Only six free agents received more in guaranteed money this winter, though in a vacuum, it doesn’t seem exorbitant for a durable and productive player’s age 32-34 seasons.  The Phillies probably didn’t mind spending a few extra million to address an outfield need before the Winter Meetings were over.

After the bullpen got some attention in the form of Nicasio, Pazos, and a trade with the Angels to acquire southpaw Jose Alvarez, a bigger name joined the relief corps when David Robertson inked a two-year, $23MM deal.  Robertson figures to serve as the Phillies’ primary closer this year, though Seranthony Dominguez and Hector Neris can step into the ninth inning if Robertson is deployed in a critical situation earlier in the game.

In the same way that the Phils chose to deal Crawford for an established star at shortstop, Jorge Alfaro went from being a future building block at catcher to a new member of the Miami Marlins in another blockbuster trade.  It was Philadelphia who finally ended up with J.T. Realmuto, ending over 18 months of rumors about where the Marlins would eventually send the All-Star backstop.  Miami was known to be asking for a haul in return for Realmuto, and the Phillies’ successful offer was nothing to sneeze at — Alfaro, top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez, intriguing 21-year-old pitching prospect Will Stewart, and $250K in international bonus money.

It’s a lot to ask for just two years of Realmuto’s services, though Alfaro is still raw as a contact hitter, and Sanchez has had some injury problems in his young career.  Plus, given the recent trend of star players taking extensions rather than wanting to take the free agent plunge, the Phillies have to feel good about their chances of keeping Realmuto beyond the 2020 season.  Even for just the short-term, of course, Realmuto provides an enormous boost just by dint of being the best catcher in the sport.  Realmuto is coming off his best season yet, hitting .277/.340/.484 with 21 homers over 531 plate appearances in 2018.

Speaking of extensions, the Phillies also signed young ace Aaron Nola through at least the 2022 season.  Nola’s deal is a four-year pact worth $45MM in guaranteed money, and could be worth $56.75 in total value if the Phillies exercise a club option for 2023.  The extension covers all three of Nola’s arbitration-eligible seasons and up to two of his free agent years, making it a fantastic investment for the Phils in locking up a 25-year-old right-hander who finished third in NL Cy Young voting last season.

As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted at the time of the extension, Nola could have been lined up to earn in the range of $30MM just through his three arbitration seasons, had he won his then-pending arb hearing that was canceled by the news of the extension.  For the Phillies to gain two additional years of control for up to only $26-$27MM more is a nice result for the team.  From Nola’s perspective, he can still hit free agency after his age-30 season and locks in a life-changing payday now — no small matter for a pitcher who has a UCL scare in 2016.

Questions Remaining

It’s hard to argue that the Phillies won’t be better in 2019 than in 2018, given both the quality and sheer volume of their offseason additions.  The trouble is, the rest of the NL East didn’t stand pat.  The Nationals and Mets also made several notable moves, while the Braves had something of a quieter winter but are still the reigning division champions with an exciting batch of young talent.  Philadelphia conducted its winter business with an eye towards long-term success, though if the club falls short in 2019, there will certainly be debate as to whether the Phillies could’ve taken some extra steps.

Given the long list of new faces, it’s hard to accuse the Phillies of only taking half-measures, though in this respect the team is something of a victim of its own promises.  The previously-linked Matt Gelb piece contains an amusing section about how owner John Middleton’s notorious “stupid money” comment added pressure to the front office, and made the Phillies a popular target both for player agents looking for suitors and for rival teams looking to trade a hefty contract.  Also, when a team spends its offseason checking in on seemingly every available free agent or trade candidate, fans and pundits can’t help but coming up with what-if scenarios.

For instance, since the Phillies addressed almost every other area of their roster, it is perhaps a little surprising that the rotation was left untouched.  This wasn’t for lack of trying, as the Phils had talks with free agents Patrick Corbin, J.A. Happ, Yusei Kikuchi, Dallas Keuchel and others, while also exploring trades for the likes of Indians ace Corey Kluber.

As the season starts, however, the Phillies will run back their same core group of Nola, Jake Arrieta, Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin, and Vince Velasquez.  This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, as this starting five delivered generally quality results last season.  Nola looks to be the only true frontline starter of the bunch, however, as Arrieta has taken a step back from his ace days with the Cubs, and the rest of the young arms are talented but lacking in experience.

Robertson, Alvarez, and Nicasio weren’t the only relievers on the Phillies’ target list, as they also looked far and wide for bullpen arms.  This search took them in some interesting directions, as Philadelphia reportedly had interest in signing Nathan Eovaldi as a reliever, which seems like it a bit of a head-scratcher since Eovaldi was getting starting offers from seemingly half the league.  Edwin Diaz was also considered by the Phillies before Seattle dealt Diaz elsewhere within the NL East, and free agent closer Craig Kimbrel was also linked to the Phils in rumors.

After Harper signed, some reports suggested that Philadelphia could turn its attention to Keuchel or Kimbrel, though the Phillies only seemed interested in either pitcher on a short-term commitment.  Over a month after those reports, Keuchel and Kimbral are both still available should the Phillies want to pounce.  While there hasn’t yet been any indication that Keuchel or Kimbrel would be willing to settle for one-year deals, you have to figure that possibility must exist now that Opening Day has come and gone.  Either pitcher could be waiting until after the draft (so teams no longer have to surrender picks to sign them, as per the qualifying offer) to finally agree to a prorated deal, potentially just covering the remainder of 2019 so they could try again in the 2019-20 free agent market.

Rather than signing a coming-in-cold Keuchel or Kimbrel, however, there’s nothing stopping Philadelphia from adding to its rotation or bullpen via a midseason trade.  The Harper/McCutchen signings left the Phils with something of an outfield surplus, so the likes of Nick Williams or (when healthy) Roman Quinn could be dangled in a deal.  The farm system has been thinned out by the losses of Crawford, Sanchez, and Alfaro, though some interesting prospects remain if the organization again wants to move more young talent in another win-now strike.

Beyond just the question of 2019, of course, is how the Phillies’ biggest signing will play out over the next 13 seasons.  The Harper-or-Machado debate will quite possibly rage for years to come.  Harper has been slightly more valuable (31.3 fWAR in 3980 career PA to Machado’s 30.4 fWAR in 4102 career PA) thus far, though Machado has been the more durable player and has been a premium defender at third base.  Harper’s defensive metrics cratered last season, which Boras claims was due to lingering effects from Harper’s knee problems in 2017, though it stands out a pretty noteworthy red flag.

Will Harper be ultimately worth a 13-year commitment?  If the Phillies win a World Series or two during his tenure, the “flags fly forever” argument might outweigh any struggles Harper has in the final years of that deal.  Going by past examples of 10+ year contracts, Derek Jeter’s ten-year, $189MM pact with the Yankees is the only deal that stands out as an unqualified success for the team that originally made the signing.

The sheer length of the agreement, however, means that Harper’s AAV is just over $25.38MM per season.  This helps the Phillies for luxury tax purposes, as even after their spending spree, the team’s projected Competitive Balance Tax number (as estimated by Roster Resource) is currently just under $191.4MM, still a good ways below the $206MM tax threshold.  Signing a Keuchel or a Kimbrel even on a prorated contract might put the Phils over that threshold, which is another reason the club could prefer wait until the trade deadline for further additions.

Beyond just the new players on the roster, the higher expectations will put more pressure on the incumbents to up their game.  The Phils are lacking in center field depth, adding even more importance to Odubel Herrera’s ability to bounce back from a disappointing 2018.  Cesar Hernandez is also looking to rebound from a subpar season, though an injured foot in the second half of the year may have been the biggest culprit to Hernandez’s drop in production.

Maikel Franco spent much of the winter as, essentially, Schrödinger’s Third Baseman — both the Phillies’ in-house starter at the hot corner and also the player expected to be shipped out of town at a moment’s notice if Machado was signed.  Ironically, San Diego was the team most closely linked to Franco in trade rumors before the Padres themselves landed Machado.  Franco is now again slated for the bulk of third base time, with Scott Kingery standing out as the superutility option at third, second, shortstop, and in the outfield.

Since Kingery, Williams, and Altherr all underachieved last year, the Phils added to their bench depth by signing veterans Sean Rodriguez, Andrew Romine, Shane Robinson, and Phil Gosselin to minors deals.

2019 Season Outlook

There’s a possibility the Phils make a significant improvement in the win-loss column but not in the NL East standings, given what their division rivals accomplished in the offseason.  Philadelphia has at least gotten itself back into the conversation as a legitimate postseason contender, however, and as it wouldn’t be a surprise if the front office again gets aggressive come the trade deadline.

How would you grade the Phillies’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Twins added some pop to the lineup but opted for a measured, cautious approach to the offseason despite being one of only two plausible contenders in baseball’s weakest division.

Major League Signings

Trades and Waiver Claims

Extensions

  • Max Kepler, OF: Five years, $35MM plus two club options
  • Jorge Polanco, SS: Five years, $25.75MM plus two club options

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Fresh off a disappointing 78-84 season, the Twins entered the offseason with more payroll flexibility than any team in Major League Baseball. The expiration of their contractual commitments to Joe Mauer and Ervin Santana left Minnesota as the game’s lone organization with not one single dollar committed to the payroll beyond the 2019 season. That fiscal freedom was all the more important given that the American League Central features two teams in the earlier stages of a rebuild (Royals, Tigers) and a third that had been in that process for several years (White Sox).

With Mauer retiring and Logan Morrison returning to free agency after a torn labrum in his hip ruined his 2018 campaign, the Twins had no set options at first base or designated hitter and ample money to spend at the positions. The former was filled affordably when Minnesota picked up C.J. Cron on a waiver claim after the Rays designated the slugger for assignment in a cost-cutting move. Cron’s .253/.323/.493 batting line and 30 home runs a season ago with the Rays easily marked his most productive year in the Majors. Securing his rights simply by being willing to pay him what wound up as a $4.8MM salary seems like an easy victory for Minnesota even if Cron’s bat steps back a bit in 2019. They’ll also be able to retain him in arbitration this winter, making Cron a potential multi-year addition with no real cost of acquisition beyond a relatively modest financial commitment.

As for their vacancy in the DH slot, the Twins managed to buy perhaps the game’s most consistent slugger over the past decade. With American League clubs increasingly trending toward rotating multiple players through the designated hitter position, Nelson Cruz faced a more limited market than one might have expected. The Astros and Rays were Cruz’s two main other suitors, but neither offered a second season or matched the Twins’ offer.

The Twins’ addition of right-handed power doesn’t stop with the pairing of Cron and Cruz, as longtime Orioles infielder Jonathan Schoop was brought aboard on a one-year deal to replace former second base stalwart Brian Dozier. A healthy Schoop would give the Twins three new bats with 30-homer potential, though like several others on the Twins roster, Schoop in search of a rebound campaign after floundering through the worst season of his career in 2018.

Minnesota’s largest signing of the winter was either driven by an injury to Miguel Sano, a quieter-than-expected market for Marwin Gonzalez, or possibly both. Gonzalez, signed to a two-year deal in early March, landed a shorter deal with a smaller guarantee than just about anyone forecast at the onset of free agency. He’s slotting in at third base in the season’s early stages while Sano mends a laceration on his foot that required stitches and at one point had him in a walking boot. Once Sano returns, Gonzalez should move all over the field and spell a number of Twins regulars. Carrying him could even allow the Twins to get by without a true backup center fielder on the roster; because both Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario can play center field, either could man the position on days when Buxton needs a break, with Gonzalez shifting to an outfield corner.

Adding Gonzalez at an affordable rate on a rather short-term commitment capped off a series of offseason moves that deepened the Twins’ roster without incurring much long-term risk. Viewed from that stance, one could call Minnesota’s offseason a clear success.

Questions Remaining

The flip side of the coin, however, is to ask whether the Twins did enough. The American League Central is as vulnerable as it ever will be right now. The Royals and Tigers entered the season more likely to come away with the No. 1 pick in next the 2020 draft than with a spot in the postseason. The White Sox talked a big game and made publicized pursuits of premier free agents — namely Manny Machado — but came away with a collection of spare parts and marginal upgrades. Even the division-favorite Indians weakened their roster as ownership mandated a payroll reduction. The moves the Twins did make signaled a hope to contend in 2019, so why limit the additions to a series of short-term acquisitions?

The company line has been that while the team believes in its core, it needs to see that core improve before investing at a high level to supplement it. That, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd pointed out in January, seems like circular logic. It was somewhat befuddling to see general manager Thad Levine speak of spending in free agency “not when you’re trying to open the window to contend, but when the window is wide open” in the same interview that chief baseball officer Derek Falvey stated that he “feel[s] really good” about the group of young players the Twins have in house.

Minnesota’s core group, after all, isn’t especially young or controllable anymore. Rosario and Sano are free agents after the 2021 season. Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda and Jake Odorizzi, who comprise three-fifths of the starting rotation, are all free agents after the current campaign. There’s another wave of talent on the rise, but it comes with all the uncertainty (in timeline and ultimate results) of any bunch of prospects.

If the front office believes in this current group, and sixty percent of the division looks like a postseason afterthought, shouldn’t that constitute a “wide open” window for contention along the lines to which Levine alluded? Next season, the White Sox project to have Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech and Nick Madrigal all at the MLB level. The Tigers and Royals will be a year further into their rebuilds. Cleveland may be weakening, but the rotation still looks strong and the division’s two best position players will still be under team control.

The logic from the front office seems to paint significant trade/free-agent investments and developing the current core as an either-or proposition. Perhaps for a team with a more limited payroll outlook, that’d be the case, but the only players the Twins are paying beyond 2019 are Gonzalez, Kepler and shortstop Jorge Polanco after the latter two signed affordable five-year extensions this spring. There’s little reason to think that the Twins couldn’t have proactively supplemented the group to a greater extent while also hoping the in-house group developed to another level.

To use a fairly aggressive example, the team could have even supported a Manny Machado-style contract and still had room to make alterations in 2020 and beyond. That’s not to say they should have signed him but rather to point out that even a $30MM salary on the books moving forward would only have brought next year’s payroll commitments to about $70MM. The idea that spending now would’ve prevented them from adjusting down the road doesn’t add up — especially not for an organization whose farm system is regarded as one of the game’s 10 best and could soon provide especially high yields (Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff).

In the rotation, the Twins opted to give Martin Perez a surprising $4MM guarantee despite already having numerous fifth starter candidates in house. If the plan was to add another starter, choosing a clearer upgrade over internal candidates would’ve been more prudent. That’s not to say they should have recklessly signed Dallas Keuchel at all costs, but certainly there were more definitive upgrades at reasonable values. Perhaps they’ll be able to coax something out of the former top prospect that the Rangers never were — Levine knows Perez well from his days in Texas — but adding another dice-roll to a roster that is teeming with rebound hopefuls (Schoop, Buxton, Sano, Jason Castro, Michael Pineda, Addison Reed) doesn’t feel like an inspired move.

It’s a similar tale in the ’pen, where Blake Parker has had some success over the past two seasons and could prove to be a bargain. But Parker lost some velocity from 2017 to 2018 and was non-tendered by the Angels despite a reasonable arbitration projection. A $1.8MM base salary presents virtually no risk, but the free-agent and trade markets both had quality upgrades available that could have made the Minnesota relief corps more formidable. And it’s not as if there weren’t multiple openings in the bullpen anyhow; 30-year-old journeyman Ryne Harper making the Twins’ roster was a fun spring storyline but also underscores that there was certainly room for further augmentation.

Of course, the Twins may well have been more active in pursuing multi-year upgrades than they let be known. The Athletic’s Robert Murray and Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reported over the winter that they pursued Yasmani Grandal and offered as much as three years at a $13-15MM annual rate. Others might have spurned the Twins’ overtures, too. But for a team with this type of long-term payroll space and such a weak division, it feels like the Twins pulled some punches. Owner Jim Pohlad’s comments in a January interview with Wolfson all but plainly stated he’d never even consider a contract another contract of eight or more years, but there’s a middle ground on the spectrum.

2019 Season Outlook

On the one hand, the Twins clearly upgraded their roster and quite arguably made some of the offseason’s best deals. Cruz and Gonzalez, in particular, seem like big wins for the front office at those price points, and Cron has the potential to be among the most impactful waiver claims of the year. This team is better than it was at the end of the 2018 season, and it’d be a disappointment if the Twins didn’t contend for at least a second Wild Card spot — if not the AL Central crown.

But a near-miss or yet another early postseason exit would further call into question the strict adherence to shorter-term deals at the cost of larger-scale upgrades. Maintaining long-term flexibility is undoubtedly important for clubs, but if a year with a completely blank payroll slate and three tanking teams in the division isn’t the time to capitalize on that flexibility — when is? The Twins are postseason contenders regardless, but this offseason feels like a series of savvy additions mixed with missed opportunities.

How would you grade the Twins’ offseason? (Poll link for Trade Rumors app users.) 

Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Padres stunned the baseball world with a franchise-record free-agent signing for a second straight offseason as they look to emerge from an arduous rebuilding process.

Major League Signings

  • Manny Machado, 3B: ten years, $300MM (opt-out clause after the 2023 season)
  • Garrett Richards, RHP: two years, $15.5MM
  • Ian Kinsler, 2B/3B: two years, $8MM (includes $500K buyout of 2021 club option)
  • Adam Warren, RHP: one year, $2.5MM (includes $500K buyout of 2020 club option)
  • Aaron Loup, LHP: one year, $1.4MM (includes $200K buyout of 2020 club option)
  • Total spend: $327.4M

Trades and Waiver Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

If the Padres’ signing of Eric Hosmer to an eight-year, $144MM deal a year ago raised eyebrows around the baseball world, then this offseason’s decision to sign Manny Machado to what was then the third-largest contract in MLB history prompted jaws to hit the floor. The move made some sense on paper even before the Padres were linked to Machado in earnest. But it’s one thing to observe that an on-the-rise team lacks a clear heir apparent at third base at a time when a 26-year-old marquee player at that position hits the market; it’s another thing entirely to legitimately expect the Padres, who have topped a $100MM Opening Day payroll exactly once, to take the $300MM plunge and alter the very fiber of their organization to this extent.

Manny Machado | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

It sounds odd to call the deal a bargain for San Diego, but the market for Machado never developed to the point where the Padres had steep enough competition to bow out of the bidding. The Phillies were linked to Machado all winter but seemingly preferred Bryce Harper (whom the Friars also explored to at least some extent). The White Sox talked a big game early in the winter but only came through with an offer that no one would’ve expected to be competitive prior to the onset of free agency and, in the end, was two years and $50MM in guaranteed money shy of the Padres’ offer. The Yankees wined and dined Machado back in December, but it doesn’t seem that they were even keen on reaching the White Sox’ level of interest.

Machado has been worth 22 to 23 wins above replacement over the past four seasons, depending on one’s preferred version of the metric, and at just 26 years old, there’s little reason to expect imminent decline. It’s possible that Machado’s best offensive year(s) has yet to come, in fact, and a move back to third base could give him an even higher ceiling in terms of WAR given his superlative defense there (as compared to his glovework at short, which was met with mixed reviews). Penciling Machado in for 25 wins over the first half of his contract wouldn’t be particularly aggressive. Even if his output halved from that point forth, the Padres would still be paying just about $8MM per win over the life of the deal.

A simple dollars-per-WAR argument is perhaps too rudimentary a means of evaluating a contract of this magnitude. But, the fact that the Padres bought a huge portion of a star player’s prime while only paying him through his age-35 season (as opposed to the Albert Pujols/Miguel Cabrera-style deals that began on the tail end of their primes and run into the players’ early 40s) is a win in and of itself. From a bigger-picture level, it’s refreshing to see a team act in a win-now capacity. Granted, the Padres are as guilty as anyone when it comes to trotting out half-hearted rosters in the name of “rebuilding” toward a “sustained window of contention” — popular terms in today’s game but concepts that yield inherently diminished returns when a third of the league is acting in such a capacity — but they’ve made good on their promise to invest when their core is on the cusp of the Majors.

The Machado addition was far from the only blockbuster move the Padres tried to orchestrate this winter. San Diego was tied to ace-caliber arms like Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and Noah Syndergaard on the trade market. They were reported to be a legitimate player for All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto before Miami flipped him to Philadelphia. They also explored a plethora of trades involving their glut of outfielders  The Padres, as previously noted, at least internally discussed the possibility of adding Harper even after signing Machado, and they did have a face-to-face meeting with him at one point.

Ultimately, however, the remainder of the team’s offseason moves amounted to tinkering around the edges of the roster. The Padres know that for better or worse, they’re stuck with the contracts given to Hosmer and Wil Myers, and they entered the winter with a farm system teeming with near-MLB-ready options at a number of other key spots. Kinsler was brought in largely to serve as a leader who’ll function as a reserve player. General manager A.J. Preller knows the well-respected former All-Star from the pair’s days together in the Rangers organization. Preller & Co. also added a pair of affordable relief arms, Adam Warren and Aaron Loup, who can be controlled through 2020 via reasonable club options.

San Diego became the latest club to jump on the trend of guaranteed two-year deals for pitchers rehabbing from Tommy John surgery as well. However, their $15.5MM promise to Garrett Richards doesn’t leave that much space for the team to consider the signing a bargain. Richards won’t pitch in 2019, meaning they’re essentially banking on the oft-injured righty to be a $15MM+ pitcher in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. It’s a tall order, although Richards has admittedly been that type of pitcher since 2014 … when healthy.

Questions Remaining

The biggest question surrounding the Padres may not even be whether Machado can prove their $300MM investment to be sound when all is said and done. Rather, the more immediate question was created by the organization itself with last week’s announcement that wunderkind Fernando Tatis Jr. would break camp as the Opening Day shortstop.

Fernando Tatis Jr. | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Tatis is a lauded young talent who is generally regarded as one of baseball’s three best overall prospects. He’ll eventually team with another well-regarded young talent, Luis Urias, though Kinsler will fill out the initial double-play tandem. The Padres are confident that the Tatis-Urias duo will ultimately form an elite middle-infield pairing, but the sudden nature of Tatis’ promotion to the Majors only puts him in a larger spotlight. If he’s ready for a starring role right off the bat, the organization’s timeline to contention will be considerably accelerated.

It might be misleading to call the aforementioned bulk of outfielders on the Padres’ roster a “logjam” or a “surplus.” While the Padres have a large group — Myers, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Franchy Cordero, Franmil Reyes and the currently injured Travis Jankowski — none is a lock to be all that productive. Myers certainly has a track record of hitting for power and stealing bases, but his glovework is questionable and his strikeout tendencies limit his on-base percentage.

None of the other four have established themselves yet as everyday Major Leaguers. It seems that something will have to give eventually, especially once Jankowski is back this summer. Perhaps it’ll sort itself out if some combination of Reyes, Margot, Cordero and Renfroe performs poorly enough to be optioned back to Triple-A, but a trade between now and July 31 also seems quite plausible.

The 2019 season could also serve as a proving year for the Padres’ catching corps. Austin Hedges, at this point, seems unlikely ever to be much of an on-base threat. His power and premium defense make that a reasonable trade-off, though. What to expect from Francisco Mejia will be the greater question with regard to this pairing. Mejia’s bat has long made him one of baseball’s most highly ranked prospects, but his defense isn’t as advanced. If he can cement himself as a viable option, the Padres could either look to deal Hedges or simply relish in a strong pairing that can be manipulated to focus either on defense or run production depending on the day’s opponent.

The other significant question facing the Padres this year is which of their touted young pitchers will take the next step and stake claims to long-term rotation spots. Joey Lucchesi looks to have done so with a solid rookie campaign in 2018, and there are extraordinarily high hopes for top prospect and Spring Training showstopper Chris Paddack, whose dominant Cactus League efforts put him under the microscope. Eric Lauer and Nick Margevicius are getting early opportunities, as is 27-year-old Matt Strahm (now that the former Royal is healthy). Waiting in the wings are Logan Allen, Cal Quantrill and Michel Baez, among many others.

The success of that group will determine how aggressively the Padres pursue rotation options. San Diego figures once again to discuss the possible acquisition of a high-end arm with multiple years of club control remaining in the coming summer or in the 2019-20 offseason to follow. The team would surely be more motivated to strike a deal if its collection of young arms struggles or suffers numerous injuries. (Jacob Nix is already sidelined by a partial UCL tear.) Looking ahead to the winter, Gerrit Cole leads a crop of free-agent pitchers that also includes 30-or-younger arms such as Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Alex Wood, Michael Wacha, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda.

The argument can certainly be made that the Padres should make a more immediate upgrade to the pitching staff right now by signing either Dallas Keuchel or Craig Kimbrel. Adding either would bolster the team’s 2019 outlook and possibly deepen the pitching staff in 2020 and beyond. Whether the organization wants to take on that kind of financial obligation when either pitcher might not be in a big league game before May is anyone’s guess, but there’s been very little in the way of recent connections between the Padres and either of those former All-Star pitchers.

Suffice it to say, there will be options for the organization to pursue if in-house options falter. But with Richards, Lucchesi and a host of young arms headlined by Paddack, the Padres hope that most of the answers are already pitching somewhere in the system.

2019 Season Outlook

The Padres might have more variance in their range of possible outcomes than any team in the game. Their heavy reliance on high-ceiling but unproven talents such as Tatis, Urias, Paddack, Mejia and whichever babyfaced pitchers get their first extended auditions could bring about huge yields if a few young players break out into immediate stardom. They’re a long shot to contend in a National League that is rife with strong clubs, but there’s enough upside permeating the roster to take a never-say-never approach.

More likely, however, the 2019 season will be one final year for the Padres to bide their time and evaluate a young core before relaunching into all-out “win-now” mode with regard to every spot on the roster.

How would you grade the Padres’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.)

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

Faced with a lack of payroll flexibility, the Cubs were only able to tinker around the edges after picking up Cole Hamels’ option.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

After Cubs president Theo Epstein said on October 3rd that the front office would “spend all our energy trying to fix” an offense that “broke” in the second half of the 2018 season, most observers did not think the team’s most notable new offseason bat would be utility infielder Daniel Descalso.  Whether we read too much into Epstein’s raw comments or gave too much credence to his previous free agent spending, the fact is that the Ricketts family set a hard player payroll budget, and the team had very little maneuverability within it to make outside additions.

The Ricketts family drew a line: Epstein’s past free agent missteps would not be papered over with further spending in the 2018-19 offseason.  Bryce Harper’s free agency came at an inopportune time for the Cubs.  As Epstein put it in a January conversation on ESPN’s Waddle & Silvy show, “After I’ve had a big steak dinner and had chocolate cake, I want ice cream too, but it doesn’t mean I can have it.” Ownership clearly wasn’t interested in pulling out the wallet to fund a treat; when asked in mid-February about the team’s remaining funds for baseball ops, chairman Tom Ricketts replied: “We don’t have any more.”

A major shakeup was not in order.  Manager Joe Maddon enters the final year of his contract in what seems like a “prove yourself” season, after various Epstein comments have laid implied blame at his skipper’s feet.  For example, Epstein said in January that there’s been too much complacency since the team won the World Series.  The Cubs did have a lot of coaching turnover, with newcomers including hitting coach Anthony Iopace and pitching coach Tommy Hottovy.

An easy win could have come in the form of adding a veteran backup known for leadership qualities, after GM Jed Hoyer said there was “a bit of a void” of that type of player on the roster in 2018.  Perhaps that could be the 32-year-old Descalso, but the more obvious choice would have been a veteran backup catcher.  The Cubs reportedly made a better offer to Brian McCann than the one he accepted from the Braves, and weren’t able to land Martin Maldonado due to a lack of available playing time.  The Cubs certainly had alternatives.  Russell Martin, who the Cubs once attempted to sign, was traded to the Dodgers with that team picking up $3.6MM of his salary.  Quite a few other backstops were available as well, but the Cubs will stick with 25-year-old Victor Caratini as the backup to 26-year-old Willson Contreras.

The Cubs also missed out on another potential veteran leader, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who instead chose the Yankees.  The Cubs’ plan was reportedly to have Tulo serve as the team’s starting shortstop until Addison Russell returns from his domestic violence suspension on May 3rd.  Back in October, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic wrote, “The sense around the team is that Russell has already played his final game in a Cubs uniform.”  Mooney’s colleague Ken Rosenthal wrote a few months later that “a couple of unidentified clubs at least contemplated adding Russell, and one even discussed the matter with ownership,” but further details from Russell’s ex-wife Melisa Reidy on December 19th seem to have killed trade interest.  So the Cubs decided to take the PR hit of retaining Russell, with Epstein outlining his reasons for the player’s “conditional second chance.”

In hindsight, the events of November 2nd served as an omen for the remainder of the Cubs’ offseason.  An early morning tweet from ESPN’s Buster Olney proved prescient: “Other teams’ read on the Cubs’ situation this winter: They have very little payroll flexibility, and will have to spend very carefully to affect upgrades for the 2019 season.”  Later that day the team picked up Cole Hamels’ $20MM club option, shipping Drew Smyly and his $7MM salary to the Rangers in a cost-saving move that also tied up a few loose ends on the trade earlier that year that brought Hamels to Chicago.  This was less than a month after Epstein had said, “We’re set up to have some depth in the starting staff next year.  We’re not looking to get rid of starting pitchers. We’re looking to have as much depth as possible so we can withstand multiple injuries.”  The Cubs thought enough of Smyly’s post-Tommy John potential to pay $10MM to stash him for 2019, only to compromise their depth in the face of a tight budget.

The bullpen would not be spared the Cubs’ penny-pinching mandate.  The only new face on the current roster is Brad Brach.  The Cubs return an uninspiring group of veterans, with the oft-injured Brandon Morrow heading up the group once he returns from November elbow surgery.  The club did sign Xavier Cedeno and Tony Barnette to bargain basement Major League deals, finding a few pennies under their couch cushions by chopping $1.35MM off Brach’s deal due to what the pitcher called “a little bit of a viral infection.”  That is one expensive case of mono.

The bright spot of the Cubs’ offseason came last week, with Kyle Hendricks’ four-year extension.  Hendricks would have been eligible for free agency after the 2020 season, which was misaligned with the team’s core in that Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Kyle Schwarber are under control through 2021 and Willson Contreras is controlled through ’22.  The soft-tossing Hendricks has had nothing but success through 4.5 big league seasons, and now he’ll anchor the team’s rotation potentially through 2024.

The team’s contention window is what gets me about this offseason.  The Cubs have been good since 2015 and project to be good through 2021.  That is a potential seven-year window of success.  I don’t think fans would have objected if the team felt it needed to take a step back at that point, which naturally involves a lower payroll.  The time to push the pedal to the floor is now, even if a third of the payroll is a graveyard of bad Epstein contracts.  The internal improvements Epstein pushed all winter can and should happen, but this club had a major need for key outside additions and just about nothing was done.

2019 Season Outlook

At the time of this writing, the Cubs project at FanGraphs as an 85 win team with a 56% chance of reaching the playoffs.  On paper, it’s the worst team the Cubs have opened the season with in several years, and it comes at a time when the other four NL Central teams all look competitive.  Winning the division seems like the Cubs’ most likely path to the playoffs, and every win will be crucial if they’re to pull it off.

How would you rate the Cubs’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.)

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Red Sox made some long-term investments in core members of their World Series team, though saying goodbye (maybe?) to some important relievers has left uncertainty within the bullpen.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Chris Sale, SP: Five years, $145MM (Sale can opt out after the 2022 season; contract contains a vesting option for the 2025 season)
  • Xander Bogaerts, SS: Six years, $120MM (Bogaerts can opt out after the 2022 season; contract contains a vesting option for the 2026 season)

Notable Losses

[Red Sox organizational depth chart][Red Sox payroll information]

Needs Addressed

It didn’t take long for the Red Sox to bring back their World Series MVP, as Steve Pearce was re-signed to a one-year contract by mid-November.  Pearce began the season on the injured list due to a strained calf but isn’t expected to miss much time before resuming his duties as Mitch Moreland’s first base platoon partner and a late-game pinch-hit candidate.  His $6.25MM price tag is a bit steep compared to what other aging (Pearce turns 36 in mid-April) first base/DH types received on the open market, though it’s probably safe to assume that the team might have considered it an extra thank-you bonus for Pearce’s postseason exploits.  Plus, if he replicates the .901 OPS he posted over 165 PA with the Sox last season, Pearce may suddenly look like a bargain.

Speaking of Boston postseason heroes, Nathan Eovaldi posted a 1.61 ERA over 22 1/3 innings during the 2018 playoffs, including an instantly-legendary six-inning relief stint in the marathon that was Game 3 of the World Series.  That performance was the cherry on top of an outstanding comeback season for Eovaldi, who missed all of 2017 due to Tommy John surgery before returning for a 3.81 ERA, 5.05 K/BB rate, and 8.2 K/9 over 111 regular season frames for the Rays and Red Sox.  Beyond just regaining his velocity post-surgery, Eovaldi’s 97.2mph average fastball actually represented a new career high for the right-hander.

Now re-established as a quality starter, Eovaldi drew a lot of attention in the free agent market, though the Sox were helped by the fact that Eovaldi reportedly only gave serious consideration to Boston and Houston (Eovaldi’s hometown club).  Boston ultimately re-signed Eovaldi on a four-year, $68MM contract.

There is no small amount of risk baked into that signing, as Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries under his belt and has averaged just 121 innings per year during his eight MLB seasons.  (The Phillies and perhaps at least one more of Eovaldi’s many suitors this winter apparently had interest in signing him to work as a reliever, which seems like it would’ve been a hard sell to a pitcher with so many rotation offers on the table.)  Despite the concerns, Eovaldi has never pitched as consistently well as he did during his three-plus months in a Red Sox uniform, so it could be that the team’s vaunted pitching braintrust may have unlocked something within Eovaldi to give the Sox faith that the righty can be a front-of-the-rotation arm going forward.

With some key players slated to reach free agency after the 2019 and 2020 seasons, Eovaldi’s deal also helped solidify the team’s core over a slightly longer term.  The Sox took another big step towards this end by extending Chris Sale, keeping the ace southpaw out of the 2019-20 free agent market by inking him to a five-year, $145MM deal.  We’ll address some of the concerns about the Sale contract in the next section, though in terms of pure performance, it’s hard to argue that Sale wasn’t deserving of such a financial commitment.  Sale has the best K/9 (10.9) and K/BB ratio (5.29) of any pitcher in the history of the sport with at least 1000 career innings, to go along with a 2.93 ERA.

Xander Bogaerts was the next 2019-20 free agent land a new contract, agreeing to remain in Boston for a guaranteed $120MM from 2020-25.  The shortstop has generated 17.6 fWAR from 2015-18 and is coming off a 2018 season that saw him post his best numbers yet (.288/.360/.522 in 580 PA).  A similar season could have pushed Bogaerts’ price tag close to the $200MM mark since he doesn’t turn 27 until October.  Instead, now the Sox know they have Bogaerts in the fold for a $20MM average annual value through at least 2025, and maybe 2026 depending on a vesting option.

Boston tried to shop its group of catchers all offseason long but never found a deal.  Instead, the Sox kept Sandy Leon in the organization after he cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A.  This might count as something of a minor victory for the club, since Leon is still on hand to provide defensive depth behind Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart.

Questions Remaining

It was a relatively quiet winter in Beantown, and there was certainly more than a bit of speculation surrounding what moves the Red Sox didn’t make, rather the ones they did.

With Joe Kelly gone to the Dodgers and a reunion with Craig Kimbrel looking unlikely, Boston’s bullpen is down its closer and one of its top setup men from 2018.  The Red Sox didn’t address these vacancies in any major way — rookie Colten Brewer made the Opening Day roster after being acquired from San Diego, while some experienced names like Erasmo Ramirez, Zach Putnam, Jenrry Mejia, and old friend Carson Smith were brought into the mix on minor league deals.

As it stands, Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier will share closing duties, leading a bullpen mix comprised mostly of returning pitchers now expected on take on a larger role.  Since Boston’s relief corps was pretty solid on the whole last year, it isn’t quite the nightmare scenario that many Boston fans are fearing.  The Sox seem to be taking the stance that since they’re such overwhelming favorites for a postseason spot already, they can take the first couple of months to evaluate their relief options and see if anyone emerges.  If not, Boston will likely pursue an established late-game reliever at the trade deadline (or they might do so even if Barnes and/or Brasier thrive, to add further depth).

Of course, this is something of a risky strategy with the Yankees (or maybe even the Rays) poised to battle for the AL East title.  Settling for even a middle-of-the-pack bullpen for a few months could cost the Red Sox in a division race that could easily come down to a game or two in the standings.  While the Sox might still have an advantage over the American League as a whole, they surely want to win the division rather than tempt fate in the Wild Card game.

Bogaerts’ extension came after the team’s self-imposed Opening Day deadline for extension talks, so we probably shouldn’t rule out any further deals.  Still, there was more buzz about a potential new Bogaerts contract than there was about a new pact for pending free agent Rick Porcello, as the Red Sox didn’t seem overly interested in a new contract even with Porcello offering something of a discount.

J.D. Martinez is another possible departure if he opts out of the final three years and $62.5MM left on his contract.  There also hasn’t been much traction between Martinez and the team in solidifying their future arrangement, though the Sox could be betting that Martinez chooses to stick with his contract rather than test a free agent market that has been increasingly hostile to defensively-limited players.  Even with another elite hitting season, would Martinez land more than $62.5MM for his age 32-34 seasons, as he becomes increasingly closer to being a DH-only player?  Martinez saw a limited market even last winter, and his situation might not improve now that he’d be two years older and with a compensatory draft pick via the qualifying offer (which the Sox would surely offer) hanging over his services.

The biggest unanswered question is what it will cost to keep Mookie Betts beyond the 2020 season.  Betts certainly doesn’t sound as if he’s considering signing an extension, so there might not have been much Boston could have done to get him to reconsider his stance on testing free agency (aside from a Mike Trout-esque offer).  With two years of team control remaining, there isn’t necessarily any urgency to lock Betts up immediately, though his price tag only seems to be rising.  Betts already rejected a $200MM extension offer prior to his MVP season in 2018, and retaining his services may take a $300MM+ commitment at this point.

Boston’s major investment in Sale also carries some red flags.  While Sale has been a durable arm over his career, his performance declined down the stretch in 2017, and he pitched just 17 regular-season innings after July 27 in 2018 due to shoulder issues (plus 15 1/3 innings over five postseason appearances).  If health problems are only starting to crop up now that Sale has celebrated his 30th birthday, it doesn’t auger well for him continuing to stay healthy for the life of that extension.  The Red Sox are also now averaging $75MM in salary to three rotation members in Sale, Eovaldi, and David Price through the 2022 season.  Price has also had some health issues over the last few years, while Eovaldi’s injury history is well-documented.

The question of money, of course, is at the heart of every transaction (or non-transaction) Boston made this winter.  The Red Sox soared over the luxury tax threshold last season, topping the highest penalty level ($237MM) and thus faced slightly under $12MM in tax payments and a ten-slot drop for their first round draft pick.  Even as the Competitive Balance Tax has risen to $206MM for 2019, Roster Resource has Boston’s projected luxury tax number at slightly more than $253.2MM, well over the $246MM threshold that would trigger another maximum penalty.  If the Sox spend more than $246MM, their 2020 first-round pick will again drop back ten spots.  They’ll also pay $14.4MM in taxes for their payroll up to that $246MM mark and an additional 75 percent tax on every dollar from that point forth.  If that $253.2MM projection proves accurate, the Sox would pay a total of $19.8MM in luxury taxes.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams detailed Boston’s payroll situation in a recent analysis of why the Sox were hesitant about re-signing Kimbrel, or making a lot of big splashes this winter.  Extending Sale increased his luxury tax number, thus sending the team over the $246MM threshold and into the max penalty danger zone once more.  With this in mind, the Red Sox were reportedly even open to trade offers for Bogaerts, Porcello, and Jackie Bradley Jr. this winter as the club looked to cut costs.

The counter-argument, as Steve noted, is that the big-market Red Sox could absorb that tax hit as a giant one-year expense in the name of fully reloading for another World Series run while their core group is still together.  Enough salary will come off the books after the season (Porcello, Pearce, Moreland, Eduardo Nunez, Brock Holt, and Boston’s remaining commitment to Pablo Sandoval) that the Sox might even have a shot at ducking under the $208MM luxury threshold for 2020 entirely, though it’ll be difficult considering the arbitration raises due to Betts, Bradley, Andrew Benintendi, Eduardo Rodriguez, and maybe Barnes is his arbitration salary is boosted due to accumulating saves.  (Brasier could even reach arbitration as well, depending on where this year’s Super Two cutoff lands.)

Extensions to retain stars like Sale and Bogaerts, however, look to have been the only type of big splurge the club was willing to make to send it beyond the $246MM border this year.  Any further moves the Red Sox could make are likely to wait until midseason, when their deadline pickups will only have two-plus months of salary commitments remaining.  These pickups could include finding a reliever, maybe rotation depth, or possibly another second baseman in the vein of their acquisition of Ian Kinsler last summer.  It’s still unknown how much Dustin Pedroia will be able to contribute in 2019, leaving Boston with a combination of Holt and Nunez until Pedroia is ready, with Tzu-Wei Lin, an injured Marco Hernandez, and top prospect Michael Chavis as further potential options.

Second base is the biggest question mark around the diamond, as the Sox can be reasonably hopeful that Vazquez and Rafael Devers take steps forward from their mediocre 2018 showings to shore up the catcher and third base positions.  Without a ton of bench depth and a lack of money to spend on more upgrades, however, Boston will again be counting heavily on its superstars.

2019 Season Outlook

With all of these questions in mind, Fangraphs projected the Red Sox to take a big dropoff from their 108-win performance in 2018, as Boston is currently projected to win “only”…. 94 games.  Needless to say, the Sox still look like heavy favorites to again reach the postseason, though they’ll be neck-and-neck with the Yankees all year long for the AL East crown.

How would you grade what the Red Sox did this offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: New York Mets

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

Audacious general manager Brodie Van Wagenen hit the ground running in his first offseason atop the Mets. Now, after two straight down years, the revamped club has a realistic chance to compete for a playoff berth.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[New York Mets depth chart | New York Mets payroll outlook]

Needs Addressed

Formerly one of baseball’s most accomplished agents, Van Wagenen took the reins in Queens with no prior front office experience. It was a controversial choice by the Mets to hand Van Wagenen the keys to their baseball department, though he never lacked for confidence upon landing the job.

“We will win now. We will win in the future. We will deliver a team this fanbase and this city can be proud of,” Van Wagenen declared at his introductory press conference on Oct. 30.

While there was plenty of skepticism over Van Wagenen five months ago, it’s hard to say he’s in over his head one winter into his pressure-packed new role. Van Wagenen reworked the Mets’ roster in impressive fashion over the past few months, turning a team that didn’t have enough support around core stars Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto into a formidable unit.

Much of Van Wagenen’s focus was on the Mets’ infield and bullpen, two areas he addressed in his first noteworthy move – a stunning, headline-stealing trade with the Mariners. Not only did the swap net the Mets Robinson Cano, one of the best second basemen in recent memory, but they also hauled in arguably baseball’s premier reliever in closer Edwin Diaz. The cost? Three capable prospects – including top 100 outfielder Jarred Kelenic (No. 56 at MLB.com) and right-hander Justin Dunn (No. 90) – a pair of expendable veterans (outfielder Jay Bruce and reliever Anthony Swarzak, both of whom struggled as Mets) and a willingness to take on $100MM of Cano’s remaining $120MM. Cano’s raking in that money thanks in part to his former agent, Van Wagenen, who scored the ex-Yankee a $240MM payday from the M’s in 2013.

There is an especially high amount of risk in welcoming the present-day version of Cano, as he’s a pricey 36-year-old coming off a season in which he sat 80 games because of a performance-enhancing drug suspension. At the same time, though, he stayed an excellent contributor in the 80 games he took the field, and the Mets are banking on the eight-time All-Star continuing to turn in Hall of Fame-caliber production for at least a bit longer. Whether that’s sensible on their part is debatable, but regardless, he’s slated to be on their books for the next half-decade. Meanwhile, they’re set to get four affordable years of Diaz (including one pre-arb campaign). The 25-year-old flamethrower was the less famous name in the return, but he could be the bigger prize for the Mets. Diaz has been nothing short of incredible since debuting in 2016, and should go a long way toward fixing what was an awful New York bullpen in 2018.

Diaz will have some imposing late-game company this year and beyond, in part because the Mets reunited with old friend Jeurys Familia and added Justin Wilson in free agency. Familia, whom the Mets traded to Oakland last July after a long initial run with the New York organization, went down as their most expensive free-agent signing at $30MM over three years. Committing large amounts of money to relievers is often risky, but the 29-year-old Familia’s contract looks fair when considering the numbers he has logged throughout his career. Likewise, the $10MM going to Wilson is hardly a crazy figure. Based on his output to date, he should give the Mets something the now-gone Jerry Blevins couldn’t provide last year: an effective left-handed reliever. With Diaz, Familia, Wilson and minor league signing Luis Avilan – who has been a solid lefty as well – joining holdovers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman, it’s easy to see the Mets’ relief corps transforming from weakness to strength.

Similarly, the Mets’ position player contingent has the makings of an above-average group. Along with Nimmo, Conforto and Cano, the Mets’ main offensive threats look to be top first base prospect Pete Alonso – who, in an era of rampant service-time manipulation, cracked their season-opening roster – as well as infielders Jed Lowrie and Jeff McNeil and catcher Wilson Ramos. Both Lowrie and Ramos came aboard via free agency on the heels of terrific seasons. Lowrie was among the majors’ most productive second basemen in Oakland from 2017-18, but Cano’s presence should push him to the hot corner in New York. Health and age (35 in April) are the primary concerns with Lowrie, who has missed substantial time in the past and, thanks to a sprained left knee, may be a ways from making his Mets debut.

Ramos has battled his own knee troubles, including two right ACL tears, though the 31-year-old has typically been an adept backstop when healthy. Still, if the Mets had their druthers, Ramos probably wouldn’t be on the roster. Not only did the Mets reportedly pursue trades for then-Indian Yan Gomes and then-Marlin J.T. Realmuto, both of whom ended up with division rivals, but they chased Yasmani Grandal in free agency. Realmuto and Grandal are superior to Ramos, but New York reportedly balked at giving up Nimmo, Conforto or shortstop Amed Rosario for Realmuto, and the team pivoted away from Grandal when the now-Brewer turned down its sizable offer. That left New York to fork over a reasonable sum for Ramos, who’s a far better player than 2018 Mets catchers Kevin Plawecki, Travis d’Arnaud, Devin Mesoraco, Tomas Nido and Jose Lobaton. Plawecki’s now off the Mets, having been traded to the Indians, as is Lobaton. D’Arnaud is occupying his usual spot on the injured list, leaving the No. 2 job to Nido, and Mesoraco could retire instead of playing for the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate.

Questions Remaining

While the Mets’ infielders appear to be a promising bunch, there’s room for some wariness. Lowrie’s health is worth monitoring, and the same applies to Todd Frazier. Although Frazier was quite durable with the Reds, White Sox and Yankees earlier in his career, he missed 47 games last year – his first as a Met – and began this season on the IL with a strained oblique. If healthy, though, the 33-year-old Frazier has the credentials to serve as a valuable corner infield reserve.

It’s questionable, on the other hand, how effective Alonso, McNeil, Rosario and Dominic Smith will be this year. Alonso was outstanding as a minor leaguer, but there’s no guarantee it will carry over. If it doesn’t, the Mets may turn to Smith, who, like Alonso, garnered top 100 hype as a prospect. Smith has been valueless as a major leaguer since he first came up in 2017, and he wasn’t any better in the minors last year. McNeil was a revelation in his 248-plate appearance debut last season, but he showed minimal power and an inflated .359 BABIP helped beget a .329 batting average. Rosario hasn’t hit since breaking into the bigs in 2017, nor has he fared well in the field, leaving one to wonder why the deep-pocketed Mets didn’t pursue Manny Machado in free agency.

For the most part, the Mets’ outfield is nicely equipped with Nimmo and Conforto occupying two everyday spots. Ideally, they’ll start in the corners, though Nimmo held down center in the team’s second game of the season on Saturday, giving left to McNeil and third to newcomer J.D. Davis. Nimmo wouldn’t need to play center if the Mets had a more surefire option there than Keon Broxton, whom they acquired in a January trade with the Brewers, or Juan Lagares. Broxton and Lagares are proven defenders, but offensive mediocrity abounds in both cases. That’s hardly the case for A.J. Pollock, a rumored offseason target of the Mets who ended up securing an appreciable raise to go from the Diamondbacks to the Dodgers. It didn’t seem as if the Mets fervently pursued Pollock before he came off the market, however, and they’re now down to Nimmo, Broxton, Lagares and a horde of center field minor league signings as a result.

Should Broxton and Lagares falter, we may see Nimmo take center on a regular basis if fellow corner outfielder Yoenis Cespedes returns from his heel surgeries during the season. It’s probably not worth holding your breath for that, though, considering the 33-year-old Cespedes endured back-to-back injury-ruined seasons prior to this one. For now, Cespedes looks like the franchise’s successor to David Wright – a once-fabulous player who turns into a forgotten man because of injuries.

Meantime, the pitching staff is no doubt among the Mets’ greatest strengths. DeGrom’s the reigning NL Cy Young winner, perhaps the game’s supreme ace, and the ex-Van Wagenen client will be with the franchise for a while longer after inking an extension last week. Syndergaaard, whom Van Wagenen also used to represent, is similarly imposing when healthy. However, whether the Mets can bank on his health is up in the air. Injuries held Syndergaard to 30 1/3 innings in 2017 and 154 1/3 last season, after which reports indicated they at least mulled trading the 26-year-old. Unlike deGrom, Syndergaard has not been an extension target for New York to this point. With that in mind, Syndergaard may continue to frequent trade rumors should no agreement come together between him and the team during his final three years of arbitration control.

Behind the enviable deGrom and Syndergaard duo, righty Zack Wheeler figures to further bolster the cause if his tremendous 2018 is any indication. Whether he can continue to stay healthy after missing nearly all of 2015-17 is in question, though. Injuries have also tormented southpaw Steven Matz, who did put forth an encouraging 2018 after a subpar 2017. Fellow lefty Jason Vargas was horrible last season, which gave the Mets room to upgrade their rotation over the winter. To that end, the club reportedly showed interest in Mike Minor, Gio Gonzalez, Martin Perez, Derek Holland, Josh Tomlin and even venerable Indians ace Corey Kluber. However, minor league pickup Hector Santiago is the sole battle-tested starter the Mets have reeled in since last season concluded.

2019 Season Outlook

This is not a team without concerns, but it would still be sane to expect the Mets to return to relevance in 2019. Van Wagenen, in his debut offseason at the controls, did a fine job enhancing the roster around the high-end talent that was already in place. The problem is that the NL East rival Phillies and Nationals also made their share of offseason splashes – and that’s to say nothing of a quality Braves team that reigned over the division last year. It wouldn’t be a surprise this season to see any of those clubs, including the Mets, win a wide-open division or miss the playoffs altogether.

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Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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