With the July 31 trade deadline on the way and the Tigers well out of contention, they’re “open to moving virtually” all of their veteran players, Jon Morosi of MLB.com writes. Morosi names left-hander Matthew Boyd, closer Shane Greene and right fielder Nicholas Castellanos among potential trade pieces for the rebuilding Tigers.
Not only is Boyd the most appealing member of the above trio, but there is little question he’s Detroit’s MVP. After back-to-back seasons of roughly average production, the 28-year-old has performed like one of the majors’ premier starters in 2019. He owns a 3.08 ERA/2.91 FIP with a stunning 11.16 K/9 against 1.59 BB/9 through 14 starts and 84 2/3 innings. Adding to Boyd’s allure, he’s inexpensive right now ($2.6MM) and controllable for a while. Boyd’s in his first of four potential arbitration years.
While it would be difficult for the Tigers to move their fledgling ace, doing so would go a long way toward boosting a mediocre farm system. In a summer trade market that could also include the likes of Madison Bumgarner, Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, Boyd’s performance and affordable team control would make him the most desirable arm on the block. As you’d expect, though, Morosi notes it would take a Godfather offer for the Tigers to part with Boyd.
Unlike Boyd, Castellanos wouldn’t return any kind of haul. The 27-year-old is due for free agency after the season, for one, and isn’t cheap ($9.95MM). He’s also a defensively limited corner outfielder – something most executives frown on these days – and hasn’t gotten off to a compelling start at the plate this year. While Castellanos was a well above-average offensive player from 2016-18, he’s batting a so-so .263/.315/.454 (102 wRC+) with seven home runs in 273 trips to the plate this season. Even if Castellanos’ .325 weighted on-base average starts moving toward his .342 expected wOBA, it still wouldn’t do much for his trade value.
As with Castellanos, Greene’s a soon-to-be free agent who seems quite likely to leave Detroit in the coming weeks. As a $4MM hurler with plenty of late-game experience, the Tigers are sure to find a taker for the 30-year-old Greene. There’s added value with one more season of arbitration control, though Greene’s performance thus far may also cause his arb price tag to shoot up. In theory, Greene has upped his trade value as well with a tremendous 1.00 ERA, 9.67 K/9, 2.33 BB/9 and 19 saves on 20 tries in 27 innings. However, potential buyers are likely wary regression is around the corner.
Hitters have only posted a .182 batting average on balls in play against Greene, down 124 points from his career mark of .306; his 79.8 percent strand rate sits 11 percent above his lifetime figure; and there’s a sizable gap between his wOBA against (.212) and xwOBA (.280). Greene also comes with an inconsistent track record, having mustered an unspectacular 4.30 ERA/3.88 FIP in 178 innings out of the Tigers’ bullpen from 2016-18.
After Boyd, Castellanos and Greene, it’s not as easy to identify potentially on-the-block veteran Tigers. The team signed a pair of infielders, Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer, as well as two starters in Tyson Ross and Matt Moore to one-year deals last offseason. At the time, the Tigers were no doubt hoping those four would build their value leading up to the deadline. Instead, they’ve been either bad or injured (or both in some cases). Righty Michael Fulmer underwent Tommy John surgery before the season, further destroying his once-high trade value, while designated hitter Miguel Cabrera and injured righty Jordan Zimmermann remain immovable because of their declining performances and albatross contracts.
Greene got his 20th save tonight with a relatively clean inning.
Greene’s LD% is 10%. GB% is up to 51 from 40% last year as well. That has a good bit to do with his abnormally low BABIP. His hard contact rate has also fell to 27%. His track record is by no means strong and he certainly won’t maintain an ERA down at these levels but there is support for him being an improved pitcher.
I 100% agree
Someone somewhere could construct some stat that said Mike Trout wasn’t that great. It’s the nature of the game today.
Percentages please
Id love to hear move about this mysterious Trout stat.
His subway commercials weren’t very good.
Consistent with the product.
There probably will be a stat for that in a few years. Commercial appeal stat.
His CA was low earlier in his career but the last two years he raised it dramatically.
Over the last 7 games, Mike Trout has only hit 231. That signals a down turn. LoL!
Nice
You know someone is grasping for straws when they complain about BABIP without backing it up with the type of details you provided. Thanks for the analysis.
The brewers could really use the pitchers I doubt we make the playoffs again without some kind of move for pitching
They will probably trade for a 3rd baseman instead of adding pitching.
So will the Braves
Every single contender could use some arms.
The Dodgers May be coy at the moment, but they WILL be calling on Greene
Maybe. I don’t know much about the player but I wonder what justifies his ungodly numbers this year when he doesn’t have the career to back it up.
Greene was the 3rd best player in a 3 team trade with NYY and ARI that brought Didi to the Bronx and Robbie Ray to the desert
Nice hind sight analysis. Ray was an unproven quantity at that time and FanGraphs repeatedly complained about how mediocre Ray was and how he would never be as good as Doug Fister. Greene was a solid young 3 or 4 starter with a solid rookie year. Unfortunately he regressed as a starter but has excelled in the bullpen.
What? FanGraphs isn’t a person. It doesn’t have an opinion.
Points.
Boyd and Green to the Dodgers for Kike Hernandez, Pedro Baez and Dustin May. Dodgers get two different arms for the pen and the Tigers get their backup catcher (who can also play 2nd), a versatile reliever and the highest ranked pitcher in the MLB top 100 prospects.
Because the Dodgers need another LH starter and really want to go sideways in the bullpen? If you’re going to propose trades, how about one that works for both teams?
Why would the Tigers take 1 prospect, a 27 yr old utility player, & a 31 yr old reliever? This wouldn’t be enough for Boyd let alone both and the point is to get young prospects not vets.
Lol
Not even close to being enough for Boyd and Greene. You are not understanding the cost of Boyd around the league. Lux and May for Boyd is the cost. You laugh at that and do not get Boyd and we move on.
If that’s the tigers price, they aren’t going to be able to trade Boyd
I understand your opinion and that may be true but a Quintana return is the target.
Quintana was also a good pitcher for 4 1/2 years compared to half a season for Boyd.
Yes he was but he did not put up ace like number like Boyd has this year. It all comes down to if you believe Boyd is legit really. The Tigers do so that is their price tag.
Theo nor Dave Dombrowski have top prospects to trade away anymore. Unless Neal Huntington decides to have a giveaway I think it’s going to be very hard to find a package of that value on the table for Boyd at this point. Particularly with guys like Stroman, Bumgarner and possibly Trevor Bauer also available.
The Dodgers have absolutely no use for Boyd, so talking about what he’d cost the Dodgers is a complete waste of time. The Dodgers do have a use for Greene. I think he could be had for a quality prospect and maybe the addition of another one from a lower shelf. Veterans sometimes do get included in trades of this kind, not necessarily as centerpieces but as cost balancing and roster moves. For instance I could easily see the Dodgers throwing Yimi Garcia into a trade for another reliever, not because Garcia is especially valuable but because he’s out of options and they’d need the roster slot for another reliever.
Greene for Cartaya+?
Something like that. Cartaya isn’t ranked yet (I don’t think) but the Dodgers are definitely deep in catching these days.
Michael Baez, Logan Allen, Josh Naylor, Xavier Edwards and Esteury Ruiz for Boyd.
Haha this has to be a troll comment… Boyd’s gonna bring a solid return but it would probably be roughly half of this.
Nah, now that I look again, less than that
You are underestimating Boyd’s value. Take out Baez and his offer is fair for Boyd alone.
Did Boyd become the best pitcher of all time over night? Last time I checked he’s a serviceable 3 or 4 on a good team
On a good team…perhaps. On the Padres, at least a 2.
Did that prospect package suddenly become the best of all time? It probably is a bit much for Boyd, but the guy does have 4 years remaining on his deal so the price is going to be high. Not that high, but still pretty high.
But don’t act like you wouldn’t trade that package for a real ace. If you wouldn’t, it would be a huge mistake.
Boyd isn’t an ace.
@rdsfan
If last time you checked he was serviceable, check again. His control has improved. He is hitting the corners, and moving the ball around the entire strike zone. I don’t expect the Tigers to get the offer it would take, but no harm listening. I’d rather they build around him.
Too small a sample size to declare Boyd an ace. Serviceable 3 or 4 is certainly more appropriate with the ability to be 2. I don’t have a problem with what rdsfan said.
He’s allowed three earned runs or less in 13 of his 14 starts. He leads the AL with a 7-1 strikeout-to-walk rate and 1.6 walks per nine. He is third in WAR (3.3), fifth in strikeouts (105) and ninth in ERA (3.08). A little more than “serviceable”. Will be pitching tonight on ESPN’s national game of the week
Pitching against KC. Great. What a test!
No but he did go from a solid backend starter that was starting to figure it out to a budding high #3SP to a possible #2SP. Breakout seasons that are backed up by advanced metrics are legit and allowed lol
Again, small sample size Dustin. Maybe he is legit. Or maybe the AL Central is closer to minor league baseball. Better yet, Ian Kennedy and Marco Estrada called to say hello. If a GM feels strongly in Boyd’s ability to sustain the sudden success, have at it. I’ve watched enough of Matt Boyd not to trust him.
Good points and solid opinion. I did gather info on his starts this year against top seven offenses in all of MLB.
4 starts total which were Minn/Hou/@NYY/@Bos
24.1 innings
10 ER
3.69 ERA
22 hits allowed
7 BB (2.59 per 9)
1.19 whip
26 K (9.62 per 9)
I checked all that too. Good numbers. Still, small sample size. Because he is an unproven commodity up until now, giving up a boatload of prospects could seriously backfire. Or it might not. Statistical breakdown or not, one thing that is true is Detroit is in a very good position.
His greatest improvement from the starts I’ve seen this year is his ability to be consistent going inside on RH along with excellent command of where he wants to put his offspeed pitches. Huge assets for a finesse guy like Boyd.
Great observations. You are right on and I have watched him all year and last years as a Tigers fan.
In hindsight maybe this package is a little heavy, but only because it lacks a true blue-chip prospect. Baez and Allen have shown plenty of warts and I imagine the Tigers would ask for somewhere around 7 prospects before any of these guys, therefore you have to overdeal in quantity. That being said I’d subtract Naylor from the offer and I think that’d be a good trade for both teams.
Trade Boyd for more prospects that never materialize!! Avilia is clueless!!!!!
If Avila is so clueless, why are two of three players he received in the JV trade at AAA already & the best prospect (if not hurt) would have been there as well. He traded his son & Wilson for Candelario & Paredes. All 5 are/were in our top 15 prospects. The only clueless person here, is YOU!
If true, Matt Boyd for Randal Grichuk. Make it happen Jays!
Avila hate is in style now a days but it is short sighted by many imo. Avila has had a tough job trying to do a full rebuild with a team of older stars on big contracts in today’s baseball where good but unproven prospects are treated like gold and proven stars with hefty contracts are treated like a plague…overall I am happy with him.
Maybe they’ve learned their lesson from Fullmer. Boyd and Greene aren’t as good as their current stats, and they would be wise to move both of them soon.
Is it just me or was Boyd never that good (or even relevant) until lately?
It’s not just you. He has had 1 good half season and now he is getting the Chris Archer treatment from the media.
Thanks. I mean my god even Arch didn’t have the pump Boyd has had.
No around baseball he was seen as a solid cheap quality backend starter with upside. There was interest in him already but of course not like now. If his underlying numbers were different I would see people’s hesitation but his advanced numbers actually show his era should be better. He does have a subpar team and defense behind him.
Mejia/Naylor/Patino/Prospect from Padres for Boyd.
3 Top 100 prospects should be enough?
Probably swap Patino with a bit lesser arm.
As a Tiger fan I would accept this offer. Tigers are really looking for a high level bat prospect for Boyd. I have some doubts about Mejia ceiling/position and Naylor is a good but not great bat prospect but the overall talent of the offer is too good to pass imo
If the return for Boyd is anything like the losers they got for JD Martinez, Justin Verlander, Justin Upton, Eugenio Suarez and the rest then the Tigers are going to suck for a very long time!
Suarez was long ago and not Avila as GM please let it go.
Upton with over 100 million left had no plus value to get assets for him.
JD was not a good trade by Avila imo even limited defensive corner OF that is rental has not much of a market Avila should have just held and offered QO and get pick.
JV got us a top 50 overall prospect (MLB) at the time in F Perez and D Cameron who is now a top 100 prospect (ESPN/Law) and J Rogers who looks to be a solid starter C for Detroit starting next year. Not to mention JV was not dominate at the time and had 2/56 million left on his contract.
@dustin
JD would have only netted the Tigers a pick after the 4th round if the had given the QO. Avila got more for him than any other OF traded at that deadline.
JV was only 2nd in the Cy Young when the Tigers traded him. I wouldn’t call that “not dominant”
JV has a high 3 era at the deadline so not pitching like an ace at that point of the year and with his age and money owed caused some to doubt. I heard fans from others teams on this sight saying he would only be a mid rotation SP and not worth the money etc
boyd could be traded to the rangers and the rangers could include willie Calhoun in it since he really does not have a spot in the starting line up and other top prospect
Calhoun and Crouse for Boyd?
I could see that
Ok
You call Daniels and I will get Avila on the horn to hammer this out:)
Can we get Boyd or Greene down in Tampa please? Our starters are good, the opener system we have in place is working relatively well, but another starter certainly wouldn’t hurt. It would also be great to have a closer that doesn’t have an 11+ ERA and give up a grand slam on his second pitch. Our bullpen needs work and I know i, for one, would love to see some actual quality pitchers in the pen so we can keep this pennant race alive.
Yes TB would be a great trade partner for the Tigers on either guy
Brujan and J Sanchez for Boyd?
Unless this is Thor or Kluber coming back Tampa bay aren’t going to trade wander Franco or Sanchez due to their extremely high upside and great production in the minor leagues
Add McClanahan and its done.
That was my Tiger offer to the TB poster
Tigers get:
Ender Inciarte
Kyle Wright
Kevin Gausman
William Contreras
Riley Unroe
Justin Dean
Braves get:
Matt Boyd
Shane Greene
Nick Castellanos
Astros, Yankees., Brewers and others are bidding on Boyd so far…