Take one look at the Reds’ record – 43-48 – and it’s difficult to envision them as a team in position to buy prior to the July 31 trade deadline. On the other hand, the Reds certainly aren’t out of the playoff race, trailing the NL Central-leading Cubs by 5 1/2 games and sitting 3 1/2 back of a wild-card spot. Cincinnati is also in possession of the NL’s fifth-best run differential (plus-33) and a more-than-respectable 49-42 Pythagorean record.
Despite the team’s .473 winning percentage and last-place status in its division, is a sleeping giant about to awaken in Cincy? That seems to be the hope for president of baseball operations Dick Williams and general manager Nick Krall, who have suggested over the past week that the Reds are more inclined to buy than sell before the month is out. Whether they should is another matter. The Reds will have to leapfrog four teams and overcome a significant deficit to jump the Cubs if they’re going to win their division this year. It seems unrealistic. They obviously have a better chance to secure a wild-card berth, but that would be a daunting task with eight teams ahead of them for the NL’s fifth and final playoff position.
Fortunately for the Reds’ front office, the club’s schedule during the two weeks leading up to the deadline could provide more clarity on whether to buy, sell or stand pat. The Reds are amid a three-game set against the Cubs, whom they beat Monday, and then have series against four other teams with better records (the Cardinals, Brewers, Rockies and Pirates). Their slate’s similarly imposing after the deadline, with the Braves, Angels, Cubs, Nationals, Cardinals, Padres and Pirates set to serve as almost all of the Reds’ August opponents. Furthermore, the Marlins, Mariners and Mets are the only teams left on the Reds’ schedule through year’s end that aren’t legitimately in playoff contention at the moment.
The lack of tomato cans remaining on the Reds’ schedule may make selling over the next two weeks easier, as could the short-term pieces on their roster who could bring something back in trades. Outfielder Yasiel Puig – who started the year poorly but has been on a blistering pace since the beginning of June – as well as starters Tanner Roark and Anthony DeSclafani, second baseman Scooter Gennett, utilityman Derek Dietrich, shortstop Jose Iglesias, and relievers David Hernandez and Jared Hughes are all potential trade chips who will be free agents either after this season or the 2020 campaign. With the possible exception of Puig, no one in that group seems to stand much of receiving qualifying offer from the Reds when his team control expires. As such, it could behoove the Reds to move as many of them as possible right now for as much as teams are willing to pay.
On the flip side, no member of that bunch is a premium short-term piece (again, with the possible exception of Puig). Therefore, maybe you’re of the mind they should keep what they have, if not add to it, in lieu of selling vets for minimal returns and actually take a run at a playoff berth. For a franchise that’s staring at its sixth consecutive season without playoff baseball, perhaps there’s something to be said for making an against-the-odds effort to contend. The Reds tried to up their chances over the winter when they acquired Puig, Roark and others, though the win-loss results surely haven’t gone to the team’s liking thus far. Nevertheless, they don’t seem ready to say die as the 2019 deadline approaches.
(Poll link for app users)
[polldaddy poll=10365219]
Also Closer,Suranez to.
Suarez is on one the best contracts imaginable. He isn’t going anywhere. DeSclafani is still under control and is unlikely to be dealt.
Raised Iglesias could probably be had, but it would have to be a really strong package including near term assets.
If the Reds can get good value for either Derek Dietrich or Scooter Gennett, they should deal one of them.
It wouldn’t take much to get Roark or Jose Iglesias.
The Reds got off to a horrific start. Their pitching has been strong all year. They’ve got enough depth that they could actually “sell” without giving up on a playoff run this year.
Selling = giving up on a playoff run.
casual buyers. their expiring assets wolnt get back much save Puig, (if he stays hot) so might as well make sum upgrades. that being said, if they get blown away for one of these such players, they can very reasonably go the other way.
I voted no, but a hot streak over the next 2 weeks could definitely change my mind.
Reds are in a very tough spot like most NL teams, idk what they should do
Who voted yes? Really? There is no way this team will win a championship this year and almost no way they will make the playoffs. They should do literally everything little thing possible to make themselves better next year and tank this year.
Why? They are only 5.5 games out and even if they don’t win they’ll have a good core for next season! There are even potential rumors they might try to sign Puig to a contract extension!
Extending Puig would be a mistake. Every move the Reds made in the off season was a mistake though so I wouldn’t be surprised. This is one of the worst ways to rebuild a team I have ever seen. Instead of trading their old bums (guys like Joey Votto) to acquire young promising prospects they traded their prospects to acquire a bunch of old bums. Not to mention most of the bums they acquired are on contract years and will leave after the season leaving the Reds nothing to show for it. After after all of that off season hooplah they still sit in last place in the easiest division in baseball. There is no way they make the playoffs. There is no way they finish better than third place. They will probably finish in last place. Even if they did make the playoffs they would immediatley be swept out of the first round. Do Reds fans really think all of the other 4 teams in that division are going to simultaneously tank while the lowly Reds go on some kind of worst to first division winning tare? Congratulations Reds fans. Your team just mortgaged years of its future to “go for it” on a year it was obvious they wouldn’t contend anyway. They just traded years of championship contention for one barely mediocre season. Your prize? You get to watch them finish in last place again.
You should maybe stick to topics your actually familiar with. The Rebuild started in 15 where the did move their older players on big contracts, Votto has a no trade clause and doesn’t want to go anywhere. The Reds traded off some marginal prospects, to sign some gap fillers for the 2019 season. All of their top prospects are still here. Your prize? You get pat on the back and a head shake. Hang in there tiger.
Secs, strike one, two, and three.
Puig, a mere 28 years old, should be extended. After a slow start, he’s been on a hot streak, and has gotten his previously abysmal numbers to above league average. Puig hustles and has been a good citizen and teammate.
You characterize the Reds offseason moves as acquiring a bunch of old bums. Sonny Gray is 29 years old and has been very good as a #2 starter. He was extended thru 2022, with a team option for 2023. Great pickup. Tanner Roark, 32, has been a solid mid rotation pitcher. Another great pickup, for the low cost of a reliever prospect (yawn). The only move that hasn’t paid dividends thus far is the acquisition of Alex Wood. The 28 year old was hurt in ST, and has yet to appear, but is getting close to returning, and someone who is a solid starter when healthy. The Reds should try to extend Wood as well, as he should come at a discount.
As for “mortgaging” their future, the prospects given up were their # 7, # 8, and some mid teen prospects. The two higher prospects were both second basemen, something that the Reds had a huge surplus of. All of their top prospects remain. Get used to the idea that the Reds are young, talented, and will be in contention for the foreseeable future.
Puig is a streaky player. His entire career has been based on hot streaks and ICE cold streaks. He is on a hot streak right now but it won’t last. He has always been considered someone with an attitude problem. I am pretty sure he has started some bench clearing brawls with the Reds THIS SEASON. Did it ever occur to you that he is aware of the fact that this is his contract year? Of course he is on his best behavior. He knows that he just has to hold it together for a couple more months and then he can act however he sees fit once he gets 10’s of millions of dollars guaranteed.
I said “most” of the players were old bums on one year contracts. I specifically said that because the Reds extended Sonny which prevented me from saying “all.” Tanner Roark is never going to help the Reds win anything. Not even a playoff spot, so whatever the Reds traded for him was a waste. At least the minor leaguer had minimal potential to play for the Reds when they actually might contend. Extending Alex Wood would be dumber than extending Puig. Why do you think he KEEPS getting injured? Do you think it’s just happenstance? A coincidence? Alex Wood keeps getting injured for the exact same reason he will always keep getting injured. He has one of the most ridiculous deliveries in MLB. His delivery prevents him from ever staying healthy for any serious length of time. I know. I watched him when he was a Brave. I like the guy. I wish him well. It would just be ridiculous for any team to ever count on him staying healthy long enough to be a long term contributor to the team. He risks a major injury with every single pitch he delivers.
Multiple top 8 prospects is a lot to give up for rentals on a team that can’t contend for a championship regardless. The playoffs aren’t quite as much of a crapshoot as some people like to pretend. If it were, the Yankees wouldn’t have won it 27 times.
By the way… I love how you completely left Matt Kemp out of your post. He was the most highly paid “old bum” that the Reds acquired. Not only have the Reds released him but the Mets released him from their minor league system as well. I know the Reds got rid of Homer Bailey in that deal but he at least has had a somewhat productive season and has since been traded for something that has future potential. Kemp had no value and (aside from the enormously overpaid Joey Votto) was paid more than any other player on your team.
I voted yes. Every team Yasiel Puig has been on has become a legitimate world series contender. Puig is an MVP caliber player. # MVPuig
“Every teamYasiel Puig has been on…”
ie: the Dodgers, who look poised to make a deep playoff run again, without Puig.
I hope to God you are a naive middle school aged kid. Otherwise you might need to go see a psychiatrist.
tank ? tank ? you do realize the winter moves were made knowing most of the players were free agents after the year. these moves were made to put asses in seats. tanking costs them more than the salaries of the players. they will buy little, sell some and keep most. let them go as free agenrts and repeat the same next year unil more prospects are ready. this town will not go watch a tanking team. they must at least be entertaining and have some quality players and this team does. they are fine
I can guarantee and I mean guarantee you that any boost in attendance did not pay for Alex Wood, Yasiel Puig, and Tanner Roark’s salaries. Absolutely no chance.
You forgot about Matt Kemp. I’m sure his acquisition boosted attendance more than enough to cover his $20 million salary. After the Mets picked him up off waivers they were so afraid his presence would cause fans to fill the staidium so much it would break fire code so they just released him before he ever made it to the major league roster.
Maybe try and get an extension with Iglesias. Otherwise trade everyone who is a free agent this offseason. Sign some free agents in the offseason, try your luck next season
No Dietrich been a big asset to the team
I didn’t say to trade Dietrich. He’s not a free agent this offseason
Dietrich’s Been borderline awful the last month aside from getting plunked. He won’t bring much of anything back so they’re probably better off keeping him and hoping he catches fire again. Particularly w Gennett a pending FA.
Hence why I said not to trade him
They should not wait if they are going to buy, As everyday counts, Make a decision now and get to it, I want them to resign Puig, Gennett, Dietrich though he’s playing too damn good right now not to get a helluva offer.
Dietrich has one more year of control after this one.
Absolutely not, sell Gennett and Iglesias and then go from there.
And Puig
All those moves and there’s still a chance they make the postseason.
If they want to make the postseason then selling Gennett and Iglesias is the last thing they want to do.
I guess it kinda depends on what the rest of the WC competition does and if they get major league ready players in return for those three, but yeah you’re probably right, I was just pointing out that there’s always a chance lol.
They like Iglesias defense, he been a big asset
Go get Greinke – his salary will tamp down the prospect price, and he’s controllable.
I don’t think they have the pieces to move the needle by selling, why not buy as long as you’re not throwing prospects at pure rentals.
They already threw prospects at rentals this offseason. Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray were the best talent given up so we’ll see how much value was actually traded down the line. What do you do now? Recoup that prospect value in trades of your rentals? Or give up more? I’d probably recoup and start again this offseason if they don’t close the gap in the next two weeks.
They can re-sign any combination Roark,Disco, Iglesias, Gennett or Puig etc. this offseason if they ship him out. You’re well past the point of getting any Sonny Gray-esque bargains on an extension w those guys. Though If they really want Puig back I’d try to extend him now just because he’s a gigantic wildcard of a personality. No telling what he’d do on the open market. But they can’t fall any further back and be legitimate contenders for the postseason.
They probably want at least one SP, an outfielder, a middle IF, and upgrade at catcher and will have a veritable crapload of cash next off-season and a pretty solid farm system. If someone controllable is available that’ll help this year AND be around 2 plus years then certainly go for it. Also, R Iglesias is their best chip they’d be willing to part with IMO. Relievers are fungible and he can still fetch a decent haul considering he’s under contract for several years.
I voted no. They’re starting to create a team. No reason to jeopardize the future for a long-shot run. That’s what derailed the WS when they traded Tatis for Shields.
OTOH, unless they got a great offer, I’m not sure I’d be in a rush to trade any minor pieces. The crowd is up 1,768/game. Might as well keep them happy.
Trade votto he is old and the reds would free lots of money
Full no-trade clause that he has said on multiple occasions that he has no intention of waiving.
Zero is the percentage of how much it matters what a player says.
? and pay him not to play for you. because if you trade him you will eat 90% of the contract. i never want to pay someone not to work for me
Dirty Derek Dietrech for 20 hbp and a ptbnl to anyone. Doesnt matter.
It depends. I don’t think they should go crazy but if they can add a piece or two without it being too costly I think that would be a good move.
I can see them making the WC, maybe even win it since who knows in a 1 game playoff.
After that though they aren’t realistic contenders for anything more. Don’t sacrifice the future when you’re not quite there for that final push.
But a relatively cheap add, by al means go for it
This poll is a fun idea. But seriously… is there any doubt that about 5 to 8 fan bases have every reason to be voting no? …because they feel their team is winning the Central or one of the wild cards… and theyd like the Reds to be sellers, so theres one less team to battle against.
Do you guys realize the lowly Giants are just 3 games out of the 2nd wild card?
It is wide open for a LOT of NL teams.
Sometimes half a season is a short sample size for the python theory to work.
Sorry, Bill James. A shorter, more marketable name for your theory was in order!
But you’re on the Spectrum.
I understand…..
Poor Cincy, if only Gennett didn’t get hurt and Votto actually hit like Votto this season then they actually might be legit contenders right now…
BUY!!! All they need is a 1st baseman. Those have been devalued, right?
I say, dump as many of the players who are not part of the team’s future. And in that group I’ll include Joey Votto.
Playoffs? Really, what’s the big deal about being a NL wild-card team? This year, you play a win-or-go-home game with the prize for winning said game being a five-game series vs. the Dodgers.
Yeah, I know anything can happen in the playoffs, and getting invited to the dance might mean you end up being named Prom Queen, but reality is reality. The Reds would not beat the high powered Dodgers. Moot point, since even getting that second wild-card is gonna be a long shot. So, move ’em all out and stock up the farm.
Still, the Reds have been a pleasant surprise since their early season struggles.
2016 Houston Astros. They were in it, decided to do a soft sell and allow some younger guys to get some reps (Bregman). Also allowed them an opportunity to see what they needed to address. They got Reddick and McCann, addressed a couple needs and took off in 2017.
That is what the Reds should do. At some point a team must realize they need to solidify next year. Expiring contracts need to do. Guys not part of the plan, goodbye. Reset, reload.
Trade that makes sense….
Dodgers Receive:
RP Amir Garrett
RP David Hernandez
IFA Bonus Pool $
Reds Receive:
SS Gavin Lux
LHP Caleb Ferguson
RP J.T. Chargois
Lux looks like a good piece but that return isn’t enough for Garrett alone, much less Hernandez and international money.
Why would you move AG? I don’t think the Reds would benefit from dismantling their back end of the bullpen.
Garrett is as close to untouchable as they come, unless of course a team is interested in seriously overpaying…
Hey Red fans,
IMO Reds in a strange world. Not rebuilding, not contending, slight chance of making the WC, a bunch of free agents at years end. So many possibilities about what to do.. Need to consider who if anyone in farm system ready to step up. to majors. Can Reds really afford to hold on to a Castillo or Garett and continue to muddle in mediocrity at best? Unless Reds brass have some master plan under wraps then getting a gang of really good young controllable players that those two would fetch sounds like a decent plan to me. given our circumstances..What ever the club does hope its meaningful, As a lifetime Reds fan sure would be nice to see a light at end of tunnel
I’m not sure how the Reds can even consider being buyers at this point. They weren’t even one of 20 some teams talking to Dallas K less than 2 months ago.