Reds GM Nick Krall chatted with Jon Heyman and Josh Lewin on the Big Time Baseball Podcast (audio link), providing some information on the team’s approach to the swiftly approaching trade deadline. He largely echoed the recent comments of his boss, president of baseball operations Dick Williams, but put a slightly different spin on things.
Krall was somewhat less committed to the characterization of the Cincinnati outfit as a buyer. Williams said the club is in the “buyer category,” while also noting that the focus would go beyond the present season. Krall left a bit more wriggle room in the buying characterization and put a bit more emphasis on the longer-term picture. Over the coming weeks, he says, the Reds will “figure out how we want to improve it for the long run … not just for the next two months.”’
That’s not to suggest there’s any internal discord; it’s just added information that helps build out an understanding of the team’s stance. Krall’s phrasing seems to indicate a bit more more hesitancy to push future-oriented chips in when the division picture could change for the worse in a relatively short period of time. It appears he’s inclined to see how things look when the deadline is fully upon us.
“[I]f you can add somebody to bolster your team to help you make a run that would be awesome,” he said. “I think we’d love to do something like that and we’ve gotta just keep figuring out what the deals are and where we stand and keep moving.” While Krall said that “you’d love to be able to buy this year,” he went on to qualify things: “We’ve got a couple more weeks of games before we get to the actual deadline … you want to see if we can get some consistency.”
After wrapping up a win tonight against the division-leading Cubs, the Reds sit at 5.5 games off the pace. They’re not much closer to the Wild Card. It’s sub-optimal, but about as good as could be hoped having reached this stage of the season with a 43-48 record.
Krall suggests that the team believes its roster has performed somewhat better than its results would indicate. The team’s run differential has been in good shape lately, he notes. But the club needs to find a way to “turn those runs into wins.”
One key for the Reds is the play of pending free agent Yasiel Puig, who has been on a welcome tear at the plate. Krall says the sides have not held any discussions about a contract to keep the 28-year-old in Cincinnati beyond the present season. But he seemingly hinted that could be of interest. “He’s been great,” Krall said of Puig, calling the occasionally polarizing performer “a great teammate” and “high-energy guy” for the organization.
Maybe they will take ender inciarte
I think the Reds roster is full (unless someone wants to send a stud catcher or 1B). Pitching doesn’t need any help, Scooter’s back, and the bench guys are valuable. I think they’ll compete in the second half.
Why would the Reds need a stud 1B?
Because they don’t have one. Sorry to say but that is one of the weaker spots in the lineup, when 1B is typically one of the strongest.
Votto has driven in just as many runs as Chris Davis. No, seriously. Look it up. At least the reds only owe him $100M after this season.
Certainly a pie in the sky thought. Votto is embedded a first, so this is just fans hopes.
Doesn’t matter they’re tied to Votto like it or not.
“Because they don’t have one” lofl I was unaware Votto got traded.
Votto is 9th on the Reds in RBI. He was one more than the top pinch hitter…
Votto is going nowhere like the Pope said!
Bullpen needs help. Won’t surprise me to see Hernandez DFA’d soon. Bowman and Herget aren’t getting any run because Bell doesn’t trust them. Peralta is shaky as hell.
Nick Krall is a busy man, first starring in The League and then on Broadway with Mulaney! All the while the GM of the Reds…
Even Puig can hit in a bandbox
The Cardinals need a high energy guy. Might add some oxygen to an anemic offence. Would have to clear the dead wood to make space though.
Because the Reds would trade Puig to the Cardinals…
Business is business, if the return is worthwhile.
Show Me Your Tatis
That would hurt the Cardinals a lot more than it would hurt the Reds.
Run differential is one of the most overrated stats of all time. A 7 run win counts exactly the same as a 1 run win. It doesn’t matter if the 1 run win was lucky or not, it still counts the same. Conversely, a 7 run loss is exactly the same as a 1 run loss. Sure if you are running a computer program that simulates the season 15,000 times, it will matter in the long run. But they only play the season once in real life. So the differential doesn’t really matter at all.
Your argument falls down since games are still won by scoring more runs than you allow, and the nonlinear methods of using runs scored/allowed (Pythagorean) happen to be an excellent method of predicting wins and losses over even just part of a season. It isn’t true that thousand of instances are required. Not true at all. It is very difficult for a team over the course of a season to maintain a winning record when they are being outscored, and vice-versa. The Reds have been a definite outlier up to this point. The straight-up probabilities say if they continue to outscore they will starting winning more games than they lose.
That’s one interpretation. Another is that a team has an excellent offense to score a lot of runs and a weak bullpen to lose close games. The Reds closer has blown a lot of games and usually when the closer blows games, you don’t lose by many runs. When you have a strong offense and good starting pitching, both of which the Reds have, you can have a lot of blowout wins as well.
Games are still won by scoring more runs than you allow, but the runs don’t carry over. If you win today’s game by 12, you don’t start out tomorrow’s game up 11-0 since you only needed to win by 1. If you like the stat, that’s fine. But I still believe it is very overrated and not particularly useful.
The Reds by no means have a strong offense, they’ve been winning with their pitching and they don’t get as many blow out wins as you think. They rank in the bottom third in almost every offensive category while placing 3rd in team ERA, furthermore showing that their run differential is valid because their pitching is the thing that keeps them in games.
I believe they have the most 1 run losses, or close to that mark, out of any team in the league as well, which also shows their ability to stay in games, they just can’t finish the job at times.
I’m not necessarily trying to sway you, I’m just putting my input in on why I believe that RD is useful
I appreciate all input. I do disagree about the Reds offense though. I have watched almost every Reds game this season and they do have a strong offense. But it has been an all or nothing offense. They either score a lot of runs or no runs with very few in between games. They have won 9 games by at east 8 runs while losing only one by more than 8. So they do get a lot of blowout wins. As far as the pitching goes, their starters have been fantastic this year on the whole, but their bullpen, aside from Amir Garrett, has been pedestrian at best.
Once again, the most 1 run losses shows that they have a weak closer. Iglesias has blown at least 7 or 8 games this year. As I said, with 9th inning blown saves you usually lose by a single run because there is no need for more. Although the way Iglesias pitched, he could have easily given up a lot more if those games needed to continue.
I’m not trying to change anyone’s opinion either. I am just stating why I believe the stat is overrated. You look at the number and get one story, but if you actually watch the games you get a completely different story.
You haven’t watched enough Reds games if you think their offense is good.
They have 6 wins by 8 runs, not the 9 you stated.
They have scored 8 or more quite a few times.
They have played 91 games.
They have been shut out 8 times. They have scored 1 run 13 times (2-11 in those games).
If you are keeping up with the numbers that means they have scored 1 run or fewer in 23% of their games. That is not a good offense.
It’s the mathematical interpretation. Go over to Baseball-Statistics.com and compare the predicted Pythagorean records against actual records to see how few vary by more than plus or minus two games, even with only a bit more than half of the games played in the season. Now these are nonlinear projections with exponents adjusted to produce a better prediction than simple run differentials, but even run differential isn’t half bad. Either way, what seems like it ought to be true (score more runs, win more games), really is true. The Reds really are an outlier. You can come up with a variety of theories about why they are an outlier, and you might even be right, but none of that contradicts basic conclusion that scoring more runs than you allow is how to win baseball games. It is kind of nice when what seems like it ought to be true intuitively turns out to be true statically.
“But it has been an all or nothing offense.”
I think I stated that quite clearly. If you score 8 or more “quite a few times” and 0 or 1 23% of the time, I think that can be legitimately called an all or nothing offense. A better word than strong might be inconsistent, but the point remains the same.
I’m sure If you look back through history run differential always has the standings reflect it the majority of the time.
Puig’s act gets old, just ask his Dodgers, they wanted nothing to do with him. Underperforming!
Show Me Your Tatis
Dodgers traded Puig because the outfield was crowded and they wanted to add years of control to their roster. Not because they “wanted nothing to do with him.” He received a nice ovation upon his return to Dodger Stadium as a Red.
Puig has also developed into a big fan favorite in Cincy. A lot of it comes from his charitable work. He has gone to the local children’s hospital multiple times and done a lot of good for a lot of people. And he has only been in town less than a year. He really is a good guy.
And I say this as a Rockies fan that truly did not like the guy for the past 5 years.
This is just not true. I’ve seen and heard these types of comments consistently from generally uniformed purveyors of gossip and from Giant fans who hate Puig.
I could care less what the Dodgers organization or anyone out on the left coast thinks of Puig. Yes, he started slow with the bat but he’s come around, and his defense has been for the most part outstanding. He’s been a real shot in the arm for the Reds, the fans and the community as a whole. I’m hoping they offer him a 3-4 year deal!
Yes to all of the above on Puig. He was only ever hated by fans of other teams who didn’t like his oddball personality and the fact that he could beat them with his bat, glove, and arm. The fans in LA loved the goofy guy. He can really play the game when he puts his mind to it, and even when he doesn’t, is still fun to watch.
Maybe they can trade for a 1st baseman.
Reds release David Hernandez…
All the Dodger fNs who complained when they gave up on Puig sure have been quit this year. (Almost as quiet as the Matt Kemp dans – if there are any.)
All I know is Mahle has got to go back down to the minors, He is killing us.
Gotta sign, or move Puig by the trade deadline. Don’t let him just walk away, without a benefit for 2020 on. He is the only one of the pending FA’s that could actually bring something of value back.