2:34pm: Chapman made clear to reporters today that he has yet to make any such decision, as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch was among those to report on Twitter. He says he has not even yet discussed the matter and calls it “completely false” to suggest he has decided to opt out.
2:23pm: A confidant of Yankees lefty Aroldis Chapman says that the star reliever is “one million percent” likely to exercise his opt-out clause and return to the open market at the end of the season, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link).
It’s not really surprising to hear such a stance from the 31-year-old fireballer. He is owed another $30MM over two years on the contract he inked to return to New York after the 2017 season. But as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes wrote just yesterday, in ranking Chapman sixth among pending free agents, it seems reasonable to think he could secure a rather significantly larger contract on the open market — even given that he’ll certainly be forced to reject a qualifying offer and carry the burden of draft compensation if he opts out.
True, Chapman is exhibiting a typical velocity reduction at this stage of his career. But in his case that means he’s averaging 98.2 mph with his four-seamer — good for fourth among all qualified relievers in baseball. Chapman is also still sitting in triple-digits (second in baseball) with a two-seam offering that he has gone to more than ever.
It is notable that Chapman carries only a 12.7% swinging-strike rate, lower than any of his single-season marks. But he’s still carrying an excellent 2.45 ERA with 13.0 K/9 and 2.9 K/9. Notably, that walk rate is much better than Chapman’s typical 4+ rate. His first-pitch strike rate sits at 63.2%, a personal high.
Some might point to the Craig Kimbrel contract as reason for Chapman to think twice. But that’s an odd interpretation, particularly considering that the latter has not (to this point, at least) shown the kinds of worrying signs that Kimbrel did in his platform season. Kimbrel also could have landed a larger deal had things shaken out differently in the way his market situation unfolded. Oh, and the contract he did sign? He ultimately took down $43MM over three seasons, the first of which he only played in the second half. That’s clearly a better deal for a relief pitcher of this age than Chapman’s remaining 2/30.
Chapman also won’t face immense competition from the remainder of the free agent market. Kenley Jansen seems less likely to opt out, as he’s not only owed more ($38MM) over the two years of his deal but has shown more worrying declines in velocity and some key peripherals. Otherwise, Will Smith does provide interested teams with another high-end lefty reliever to consider, but he lacks Chapman’s long track record of consistent dominance. And it isn’t as if both can’t find hefty paydays.
For the Yankees, a Chapman opt-out would create some interesting choices. The club would certainly have internal alternatives, even with Dellin Betances (who’s still working towards his season debut) also set to test the open market. Veterans Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino have experience in the ninth, while Tommy Kahnle and Chad Green have the kind of stuff that teams like to see in that spot. It’s possible the Yanks could look into Smith and explore the trade market. And as Dierkes noted in his writeup on the top pending free agents, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where the Yanks forestall an opt-out by adding to the existing contract — or simply beat the rest of the market to bring the power southpaw back to the Bronx.
Please opt out, see ya. He will project to be in a decline over the next three years. Go pitch somewhere else. Blew the game the other night. Fastball is down, control is horrible.
A near career low BB/9 at 2.9 (down from 5.3 last year) and his fastball averages 98.3 ranked 5th in all of baseball. It was at 100 in 2017 and 98.9 in 2018. a slight tick down but still among the best in baseball. Try a different narrative.
You have to be absolute clown to think Aroldis Chapman can’t get more than 30MM on the open market. All these narratives about his stuff deteriorating or his K rate being down is ridiculous. His K rate has historically varied year to year. It’s still at an elite level and he’s not walking batters. Honestly even if he channels Craig Kimbrel and posts that kind of second half and postseason i don’t think he’d have a problem getting 2/30. As long as he doesn’t ask for 80-100 million (like Kimbrel) or something stupid like that he’ll easily top this deal
Chapman will absolutely get $60M+ if he wants it. I don’t think he’s going to beat the $15M AAV he has over the next two years, but I’d expect him to opt out and get that last big guaranteed payday.
If he gets over 60 million he has to at least match the AAV. I think he’s looking at a 4 year deal. I don’t think any teams would give him 5 at this point.
Forget the stuff, what team will pony up? The Yankees will not bid against themselves. The Cubs already passed once. Theo is not paying him. Where’s the market?
Red Sox or Dodgers. Phillies are the most likely team. I’d say it’s a virtual guarantee they’ll be in on him once he hits FA.
Angels, Braves, hell maybe even the Brewers. He’ll have a market if he’s available. He’s an elite piece that makes any contender better. Don’t be afraid he doesn’t have a market.
down from being the highest in history. feel sooooo bad for Yankees fans for this specific reason, and not any others.
I love Chapman. He’s done great with the Yankees and he got us Gleyber Torres.
That being said, I like the payroll flexibility that his departure provides as well as the draft pick the QO would provide to a farm system that has been taxed (and could be again in the next 2 weeks).
Chapman I love you, but please opt out…
@costergaard2 if the actual GM’s view Chapman and his contract the way you do then there’s no chance in Hell that he opts out.
There you go again. What does the GM’s wishes have to do with the decision that’s on Chapman and Chapman alone?
You make no sense again.. just like last week.
@Gary Chapman’s decision is based on what amount of money he think GM’s will offer him if he does opt out. If the GM’s value that money and that draft pick more than they value Aroldis Chapman like costergaard2 does, and he has an agent who is worth half a darn, he’s not opting out.
Chapman’s opt-out can only hurt the Yankees. If he is producing surplus value on his remaining contract, then without the opt-out, the Yankees’ options are A. Keep the superstar they have signed for below market value or B. trade him for a haul of prospects. But with the opt-out, their options are A. Overpay him to stay or B. lose him for nothing.
I guess the way I see it is each team is different. If the Yankees have other pitchers, young guys who can close next year, they’ll let Chapman walk and be happy while another team may pay big bucks for the man.
So to me it doesn’t matter what the Yankees GM thinks and I don’t believe that would weigh on Chapman’s decision.
There could be three four five teams that offer him big dollars while the Yankees, because of who they have, may wish for him to opt out.
I see what you’re saying. I’m just seeing it a little different.
In the scenario you describe (Yankees don’t think Chapman is worth the money but some other team does), if not for the opt out, the Yankees would at least be able to trade him for a haul of prospects. But with the opt-out they lose him for nothing. Therefore, Chapman opting out is bad for the Yankees.
In the end, no matter how you cut it, slice it or dice it, opt-out clauses can only hurt teams. Notice how every player who actually opted out his team was worse off because of it. You got the Dodgers with Greinke, the Yankees with A-Rod, the Mets with Cespedes, etc.
It’s not about how I’m seeing it, it’s just the reality of the situation.
@showmeyourtatis
That’s not really accurate. An opt out can actually help a team. We always complain that some of these contracts are too long. Well, If I have a player on a 10 year deal with opt outs then I would love it if at year 6 the player opts out. It means two things. a) He’s performing well enough that the player and agent feel like they can get a better deal then what’s left on his contract and b) My 10 year commitment just turned into a 6 year commitment and those later years of the deal are no longer my concern. The tough part is, not bringing back a productive player. However, you can’t have your cake and eat it too. But what you can do is go back into FA and try and replace his production from a younger FA who still has 5 or 6 years of prime left in him.
The only mistake the Yanks made with Arod was to resign him once he opted. If we had just let him walk then we would’ve saved a ton of money and headaches dealing with an aging Arod.
@KnicksFanCavsFan Did you actually read my last two comments? If you don’t want the player for the full term of his contract you can get out of the contract early AND get back a haul of prospects by TRADING HIM! You don’t need the opt-out to get out of the contract early. If the player is playing well enough to opt-out, it means he is playing well enough to draw trade interest. Trading a player for prospects will ALWAYS be better than losing him for nothing, but the opt-out robs the team of the ability to trade him. Therefore, opt-out clauses can only hurt teams. Work on that reading comprehension pal!
Oh and as for A-Rod, the best case scenario for the Yanks would have been him sticking to the last 3 years of his original contract that he signed with the Rangers that the Yankees traded for. He would have provided all sorts of surplus value on that.
@KnicksFanCavsFan yeah, that’s what I thought.
Opt outs benefit players and players alone. You will never see a player opt out in a scenario where their team would benefit from them opting out.
I’m going to hold you to that and try to find some examples. There’s got to be a few, right?
Lol go ahead. The fact that all the players who opted out of their contracts just ended up re-signing with their original team for more money except Zack Greinke (who the Dodgers tried to re-up for more money but got outbid by someone else) should tell you something about how bad opt-outs are for teams.
Why are nearly 95% of fans player evaluations either player is the best team must cave to every one of his demands and if we don’t get him back owner is too cheap or the complete opposite player sucks!
Yankees give their depth in the pen can certainly afford to offer the QO and wait Chapman out. Longer he waits the less money the yanks can offer.
Chapman’s camp if they’re going to decline the QO better not get greedy and start at 4 yrs instead of 6 and sign early before all the money is gone and complain like the simpletons on here do about collusion.
He can start at 6 years and still wind up with 30 over 2 years. Just ask Craig how that goes. If he starts off realistic he’ll probably get a nice 4/60. Or at the least a 3/48.
Agree almost to the letter on his lowest contract value, Jibgz12.
We have so much of that nonsense over in Cardinal fandom. If I had a nickel for every time Mozeliak/Girsch/DeWitt was called cheap I’d be able to buy the Cardinals myself. They overlook the money spent over the past 3 offseasons. “Well, those were stupid”. So they’re stupid. And cheap. But spend a lot of money. It’s all just people that are way too emotionally invested in a game. I love baseball more than most and have very well-known opinions about the game, even getting riled up on occasion. But the blindness is strong with a lot of fans and it leads to just absolutely unhealthy interactions.
every closer blows a save every once in a while, even Mo
What kind of “confidant” blabs his mouth to Rosenthal.
Probably Chappy’s agent.
Better route is to renegotiate with the Yankees to another two years for $10 – $12m per.
I would offer him 3/$54 and a team option around $15 mil. If he says no, then let him walk. If Betances returns healthy then he can take up the closer role in 2020.
Agreed.
Betances is a free agent after this season, no guarantee he’ll be back. In fact, I fully expect him to walk because I don’t think NYY will offer him as much due to these health issues he’s having on top of age.
I love Dellin, but the Yankees have three men in the bullpen putting up all-star caliber years, four if you cross out Green’s implosion in April.
If you’re looking at it this far out, why would you give the closer role to the guy who’s missed this whole season hurt and who probably will not want to re-sign with this front office, who made a point of jerking him around in arbitration and then publicly taunting him when they won?
Too much in my opinion. Fireballer closers don’t age well.
Dumb dumb mistake. Reminds me of the time Moustakas decided to test the market.
Similar players, i agree
This was one of the most blatantly obvious opt out decisions I’ve seen. Who thought he was going to opt in to 2/30 coming off an elite season at age 31? You really weren’t thinking if you did. Way too much risk to roll the dice until you’re 33. Almost any contending team in baseball would sign him to a 2/30 tomorrow if they could.
He already has a contract with NYY of 2/30. Why would he leave the Yankees for the same money and terms that he already agreed to ?
He’ll get far more than that. I was saying that is his floor. He opts out and tests the water he’s not risking anything except having to possibly join a new team. He’d have no problem at the very least matching the offer. My point was he can’t earn less by opting out. There’s just no way a guy pitching at his level does.
…I don’t know man, I would just remind you to look at the way the FA market has played out for elite talents the past couple of years. Seems like it’s not a given that elite talents will actually have a market of more than one or two teams, and at that point, who are they bidding against? Front offices have had all the leverage recently. Moustakas, Keuchel, Kimbrel, just generally dudes in the middle of the alphabet, I don’t know man….
Chapman isn’t a replaceable commodity. There are far more Dallas keuchel’s floating all over the place. Same with Moustakas. These guys aren’t special talents at all. All of them could’ve been playing on much better contracts had they accepted their markets weren’t astronomical. Chapman will obliterate a 2/30. There’s not a doubt in my mind.
Ask any Yankee fan that actually consistently watches the games on YES…stats do not tell the whole story with Chapman. He never has 1 2 3 innings, always let’s at least 1 guy on and can be wild as Ricky Vaughn in Major League
that seemed to be the same way with Papelbon really, but he too was a darn good closer. with so many things to nitpick about in regards to specific players, do you really care that much about how many batters get on if he earns as many saves as he does?
In the grand scheme of things you’re absolutely right getting the win/save trumps everything. I guess it always surprises me when you watch these guys day in day out and it feels like he isn’t that smooth but still is statistically strong. Either way as Yanks fans we could be harsh on Rivera too lol
At least your not a Met fan and have to watch Familia and Diaz pitch smh
Lol Diaz is on my fantasy team, started solid but late May/June has been a disaster
You don’t know what you’re talking about. He had a 1-2-3 in his penultimate start
xpackyank…..
Just a quick look at BBRef game logs page for Chapman this year shows nine 1-2-3 innings. I guess you weren’t watching those days.
Yeah 9 outta 39 isn’t too bad huh? With 4 blown saves which ties his high with the Yanks and we’re just back from the all star break…
Damn, they ought to start closing Tarpley or Holder here soon….
xpackyank……
Wasn’t my point…point was “He never has 1 2 3 innings, always let’s at least 1 guy on” which was a bit of an overstatement.
NOBODY consistently has 1-2-3 innings. That’s some sort of myth. The lowest WHIP for any reliever in baseball over the past 3 years is 0.82 (Josh Hader). He gives up a walk or a hit in general about 2 of every 3 games he pitches.
Bye!
good luck man. relief market is in the toilet.
lol now people are hating on chapman? whos next?
but good on chap to deny the reports. even if what the “confidant” said were true its in bad taste to go say that to reporters in the middle of a season. Especially with NY media? The guy essentially guaranteed a headache for Chap and the team
Atlanta would welcome him.
No, they’d have to open their wallets… which are rusted shut.
As the $23m/year man just had 4 rbi’s in today’s game.
Hmmm, Papelbon Part II, we’ll see him in Philly.
”one million percent likely” lol
Your smith link is to dodgers will d smith
Would be interesting to see him opt out, get get hit with QO, accept QO, play out the year before returning to FA. Assuming no steep declines from normal production, he could capitalize on another weak RP class with no QO.
What’s the point of Rosenthal reporting this? We don’t need a supposed confidant to tell us this, because everyone knows this is highly likely to happen. And if you report it, Chapman is just going to deny it. Seems like just a story to stir up drama.
I hope he doesn’t opt out and explains “”It’s not always about the money, I’m comfortable where I am right now and I want the ring with this team more than more money.””