Last winter’s free-agent market was debated for years in advance. Its slow pace led to a long period of tension that has extended into early CBA negotiations. There was and is much at stake that goes beyond the bounds of the individual contracts that were negotiated. But those specific deals are also interesting and important standing alone — particularly those that involved significant, multi-year commitments.
We’ll take a look in at the thirteen players who signed for $30MM or more in total guaranteed money to see how those contracts look now that we’re more than two-thirds of the way through their first seasons. Here are the five position players who inked such deals:
Bryce Harper, OF, Phillies (13 years, $330MM): Harper has turned his back on those ugly defensive metrics from a year ago. So, that’s nice. Much less encouraging: Harper is back-sliding in plate discipline (26.3% K rate vs. 15.6% BB rate) and power (.215 ISO). He’s swinging and missing more than ever (14.7%). Notably, his contact rate on pitches in the strike zone has stayed below 80% in each of the past two seasons, a rather notable downturn given that he had previously registered in the mid-eighties. Statcast hints at some poor fortune (.355 wOBA vs. .374 xwOBA), and we might reasonably anticipate some movement back towards Harper’s career mean, but the overall results haven’t been terribly promising for a player who is owed a lot of money over an exceptionally lengthy period of time.
Manny Machado, 3B, Padres (10 years, $300MM): Like Harper, Machado owns a good but hardly overwhelming 117 wRC+. The Friars third bagger just hasn’t stung the ball quite as often as he did in the two prior seasons. And his strikeout rate sits at a career-high 20.2%. While Machado could end up setting a career high-water mark in long balls with 26 already in the bag (his prior his is 37), he hasn’t been quite as good at the plate as one might have hoped in year one of a decade-long commitment.
A.J. Pollock, OF, Dodgers (4 years, $55MM): Another round of elbow issues has limited Pollock and he’s carrying a league-average .257/.319/.444 batting line. That’s not great at first glance, but the situation is more promising when you look more closely. The elbow surgery he underwent may finally have put an end to his long-running series of issues in that joint. And he has raked since returning from the injured list. It’d be foolish to say that this contract is working out perfectly, but it’s far too soon to label it a bust.
Andrew McCutchen, OF, Phillies (3 years, $50MM): This one was off to such a promising start. Cutch was walking like a maniac while delivering solid pop to open the season, but went down with a devastating knee injury in his 59th game of action. He’ll have plenty of time to get ready for 2020, but the Phillies lost a big chunk of the anticipated early production from the signing and will have to wait to see whether the ACL repair will cost the venerable veteran some of his athleticism.
Michael Brantley, OF, Astros (2 years, $32MM): The last position player on this list has outperformed all the others. Brantley is maintaining his typically exceptional contact rates while hitting for more power than ever before (.192 ISO, 16 home runs in 467 plate appearances). He’s also receiving strong marks for his glovework. This deal is working out swimmingly for the ’Stros.
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We ought to give an honorable mention to the players who signed big one-year deals when they could have topped $30MM in a multi-year scenario. Josh Donaldson ($23MM) and Yasmani Grandal ($18.25MM) have each been excellent. (Ditto Nelson Cruz, though the long-in-the-tooth DH’s $14.3MM single-season salary suggests he didn’t quite have that level of earning power.)
Harper is showing the potential to create the ugliest contract signing ever.
The first numeral of Harper’s SLG% is a _4_. No one pays a guy $330 million for that. With his contract the first number has to be a _6_.
Josh Hamilton looks like a comp for Harper.
Harper will be and is better than Hamilton. This seems more similar to the Cano contract, the Phillies will still get good production, and at times Harper may be close to worth his yearly salary. But even with those seasons, the 330 million will continue to look a lot worst.
That’s kind of an odd way of articulating his troubles, but I guess I get that. He’s only slugged over .600 once before, so I wouldn’t bet on him reaching those heights any time soon. He certainly doesn’t need to do so, exactly, to provide value on that contract, but bringing his ops up to .900+ would certainly be a step in the right direction. But, again, Harper has only done that once over the course of a full season. He really did market that mvp year into something he may not deserve.
Harper is 26 years old. His career OPS is .893
A player’s OPS is not supposed to be below his career number when he’s 26.
Paul Goldschmidt is not a surprise. Harper is slacking big time.
Slugging % with a 4? Albert Pujols says “hi!”
Pujols is what, 14 or 15 years older?
Not even close. He’s at least providing value, even if it’s not what would be expected. Chris Davis has provided nothing for his contract
He has beat up the managers for you!
Yeah for the Phillies! I’m sure that town will appreciate the player he will become.
You must not be familiar with Chris Davis, then.
As a Nats fan I was wondering when it would hit Phillies fans that Bryce Harper is not that good:
He is not one of the top Home Run hitters—He has hit 30 HRs only twice in 7 years.
He is not one of the top RBI guys–He has driven in 100 RBIs only once in 7 years (driving in exactly 100 last year) batting mostly 3rd or 4th for a team that has finished 1st or 2nd in their division every year.
He is not a top batting average guy—He has hit .300 twice but also has hit in the .240s twice in the last 3 years and has a good chance to do it again in 2019.
He is a terrible base runner who makes a habit of running through stop signs and is a bad fielder with a strong arm that is not that accurate even when he happens to throw to the right base.
At 26 years old he has already missed over an entire season of games (180+) because of injury.
For people that believe in WAR, he has been a sub level player in 3 of the last 5 seasons.
He is not a terrible player but $330M for Bryce Harper is Stupid Money.
The Phils are paying for the one great year he had and unfortunately for them he did it while playing for the Nats. Just imagine what that contract would look like if he didn’t have the year he had in 2015.
.
I forget who it was who said, “Have one good year and you can fool them for five more,” but Harper to this point has taken that to unprecedented levels.
And a little googling reveals that it was said by Frankie Frisch.
Sometimes it’s only one good play *cough Gary Matthews Jr. cough*
Brantley is probably the best signing of the offseason. Years and dollar wise, hard to argue.
DJ LeMahieu would like a word with you.
I hate Yankees fans. Nothing pisses me off more than hearing u guys talk about your team that needs countless and countless millions of dollars just to see you guys lose in the ALCS. Lemahieu is really good but we fricken get it ur a Yankees fan
@twinfans368
Dude relax. You’re a bit touchy. He simply pointed out that DJ is having just as good of a year as Brrantley. DJ’s numbers are slightly better across the board, slightly younger, signed for slightly less. Both great guys having great years. DJ might get a little nod over Brantley because of his defensive flexibility.
And it didn’t take countless millions to build the core of this team. Thanks,
@twinsfan368 And don’t get mad because every time you make the playoffs your team fails to get past the Yanks (spank, spank who’s your daddy?)
It’s not the Yankees fault that Polhad is worth more than the Steinbrenner’s, but baseball is more of a hobby to them and not a passion, like it was with George.
Boo hoo
On a more serious note, when the Twins get to the World Series, will they play it inside the Vikings stadium ? Target is beautiful, but who wants to watch baseball outside in Minnesota on Halloween ?
Do they ever make the WS?Heck no. They never will for many more years. The yankees and Red Sox are super rigged because they can spend how ever much money they want at the expense of losing a draft pick. It sucks being a twins fan sometimes cuz we aren’t a big market team that’s why so many people hate the Yankees.
Yeah dude I’m a Red Sox fan but I definitely agree with southbeach… you need to chill a bit. The commenter has a point DJ has been terrific this season and signed for a very reasonable rate. When he signed no one really expected him to do what he’s done this season – in fact he was essentially brought in to be a super-utility guy and instead has wound up as possibly the Yankees top hitter this season. It even looks like he may win the batting title which is really quite an accomplishment factoring in that to start the year he was basically just expected to get 300, maybe 400 ABs rotating around the diamond to give guys days off.
Damn twins fan. Maybe you should at least keep the whining to yourself til the twins actually take a series from the yanks .
And for the record twinkie..D.J is outperforming everyone on this list lolololol
U mad ?
@twinsidiot – you are a moron. When was the last time you won anything? You talk about the ALCS like you no anything about it other than routinely getting smoked by the Yankees. Go home you dweeb
@robluca21 Inaccurate. His numbers are nearly identical to Brantley with each person having only a slight advantage in various categories. Both have turned out to be excellent signings this far, especially given the hoopla over Machado/Harper.
Donaldson
I believe it was Middleton who said they ultimately listened to the fans when they made the decision to pursue Harper and give up on Machado. That was a mistake. I believed it then and I believe it now. When all is said and done Machado’s production over the next decade (barring major injuries to either) will far outshine Harper’s
Michael Brantley aside, it’s times like these I’m glad to be a Tribe fan.
Just say no to financial irresponsibility.
And championships.
I can’t remember the last team who threw gobs of money at free agents lead to a ship. There’s different ways to do it now. Indians are trying it that way, ain’t nothing wrong with that.
Some teams just trade for players at the deadline owed gobs of money. Kinda the same. See Astros: Verlander/Cole/Greinke
Seriously? Just look at the past couple years winners. Martinez, Price, Lester, Heyward, Zobrist, Reddick…
The Tigers pay a significant amount of Justin Verlander’s salary.
I think Machado is going to be fine long term. He may not be having his absolute best year this season but he’s still putting up respectable numbers and I think he’ll continue to provide value for years to come. Harper on the other hand… I think there’s real potential for this to be a disaster for all parties involved. He has talent there is no doubting that… but to be honest with the exception of a couple of seasons here and there – he really isn’t the “superstar” that people seem to think he is… at least not statistically. Who knows maybe he’ll mature a bit as a hitter and become more consistent at the plate — but I definitely think there’s legitimate risk that this deal blows up completely for the Phillies.
I don’t think the Harper contract is that bad. He’s way young for that many years. And maybe at the tail end he’ll slow considerably when making $25 mil the last three seasons. That’s what it took to get him.
So he’s actually at about 10-$250 mil. Sans those last three years. When payrolls will be taxed at maybe $275 mil total. Not a huge sum for Philly with their stupid money.
He’s a franchise player. With tickets and all. He just has to keep hitting in an extreme pitchers park. 30/100/.265 for the next 10. He’s young enough to do it. And make a HOF case.
At least he won’t be Pujols with years to go into his 40s. !!!
The ink hasn’t dried and that Harper contract is a disaster!
Pujols with be 40 next year and done at 41.
Something tells me Harper at age 35,36 won’t be as good. 8yrs so far and only 2 seasons over 150gm played, more 1WAR seasons (4) than 5+WAR seasons (2)
Extreme pitchers park!!??
Hitters park. 🙂
I enjoyed when the market cornered Machado and Harper, but then the Padres and Phillies had to keep the stupidity going.
They just don’t bring anywhere near that much value to the team, sponsorships, attendance, overall value, I don’t see it.
I don’t think either one is worth $300 million!!
San Diego overpaid so LA wouldn’t get him, but Turner is just fine in that loaded roster, and I think there are several 3rd basemen with better contracts, as well as stats!
Don’t even get me on Harper. There are so many stud outfielders like Yelich, Bellinger, Trout, Springer and few others that are on better valued contracts, who are, and have been putting up better stats.
Neither will win a World Series in the long run
Long term big AAV contracts for usually end up hamstringing the club down the road and aren’t worth the risk. The metrics prove it, yet owners still make emotional decisions to sign these players. Good luck over the long term.
The suspense is killing me! What did McCutcheon go down with in his 59th game?
Blew out his knee…..
I think it’s the same injury that Mike Moustakas had Three years ago… torn ACL
Big long term contracts are foolhardy.
Please stay away from my boss. He doesn’t need to hear that nonsense!
As a Padres fan I am happy with Machado’s performance thus far. He tends to be a streaky hitter, but when he is on he is on. His defense is still above average and he played SS when Tatis JR was hurt which was huge. He’s been in a slump the last 10 or so games, but when the year is over I imagine his line will look something like .275/.350/.500 with 30+ HR and 100+ RBI’s.