An optimist might point out that the Mets now have the best record in baseball since they sent rookie slugger Pete Alonso out for an All-Star tater-mashing bonanza. A pessimist might counter that the club has mostly feasted on sub-par teams in doing so.
And a realist? He or she would focus on what’s truly notable about the New York club’s recent run: the fact that it puts the Mets back to within clear shouting distance of Wild Card position. These twenty-some-odd games didn’t really tell us much about the talent level of this team. They did change the math of the postseason picture.
Fangraphs’ projection-based postseason odds take a fairly favorable view of the Mets, valuing them as a .546 winning-percentage true-talent outfit. It is decidedly less enthused with the Cardinals, Phillies, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Rockies … yet projects all of those clubs in the vicinity of .500. The view is notably dimmer on the Giants, but even in that case, we’re looking at a ~fifty game sample in which all kinds of good and bad fortune (run distribution, injuries, high-leverage happenstance, bad hops, missed calls, etc.) can and will intervene.
When reasonable go-forward expectations are so tightly clustered, the starting point in the standings matters quite a bit. That’s why the Mets and Phillies have near the same odds, by Fangraphs’ reckoning, with the former’s estimated true-talent advantage offset by the latter’s existing lead. The Mets have reeled in the pace-setters in the Wild Card race (less so the division), to the point that they’re one of the more plausible teams to land in the play-in game. (Per Fangraphs, the Citi Field denizens rank third among the five non-division-leaders that project to a 20%+ likelihood. 538 and especially B-Ref are less bullish on the Mets.)
Emerging from this jam-packed field will be a matter of exploiting small advantages, squeezing value from the dusty corners of the roster, making correct decisions and performing in the key moments. Do the Mets have an advantage with a loaded rotation? Or are they doomed by a leaky pen? Will their spunky young leaders continued to drive the bus, or struggle when they encounter late-season adjustments from newly attentive pitching staffs? Will GM Brodie Van Wagenen and manager Mickey Callaway pull the right levers and push the right buttons?
There are too many considerations to even begin listing them all. How do you think it’ll turn out? (Poll link for app users.)
They only have 18 road games left, 32 home. They have a shot.
Not with that bullpen.
Their bullpen has allowed just 2 runs more than the Phillies, and they’ve allowed less than the Brewers and Nationals, and have been better at home.
It may not be a great bullpen, but it might be good enough to sneak in.
The question was about making the postseason, not winning in the postseason. Then again, since the All-Star Break, the pen has been very good. Lugo won NL reliever of the month of July. Also, look at the three games they lost in extra innings in July to one of their competitors in the wildcard race, the Giants. Yes, the Mets could’ve won each of those games and, yes, the losses went to the bullpen, but this was a Giants’ team that was on an offensive tear coming into that series. The Mets’ bullpen pitched a lot of scoreless innings. Each loss was by one run. The Mets actually outscored the Giants in the series while dropping 3 of 4. If Diaz and Familia can regain their control, they both have nasty stuff that can shut teams down. If McNeil and Alonso return to their pre-All-Star Break forms, and it looks like they’re starting to do so, the offense can be just as dominant as the pitching.
The Mets should have built up their monor league roster because their farm system is one of the worst!!! They should have rebuild on 7-31!!! They blew it big time!!! This team will be bad for many years!!!
How can you say that,Airstud?They just had a great 2019 draft(3 top notch draft picks)They have the potential for a great starting staff.Granted ,the pen has been awful,but has been a bit better of late.Alonzo and McNeil are young and productive.There are moves to be make,for sure.But this team can compete for years to come
let me know when they start giving out that trophy for best farm system
May I introduce you to Mr. Alonso?
With the guys they have in the rotation, the bullpen may see minimal usage and be spotted runs to start with.
More than a shot. One thru five, the best rotation in the NL East. Braves starting to show a few cracks. Nats are dysfunctional. Always sh*t the bed at crunch time. Phillies? They are spending their time trying to see if they can roster the most number of LH hitting LFers.
Mets will win the division. Period!
Go bet a bunch of money on that Lou Orlando! LOL
Mets Pitching has been over-rated the last 5 years with nothing to show for it!!!
They made it to the World Series with that staff.That isn’t nothing!
Lol did you forget that made the WS a few years ago? And essentially they replaced Harvey with Stroman now while the rest of the rotation stayed the same, and have gotten better. When they went to the WS deGrom was a good pitcher but not great, and now he is the best in MLB
Is this real?
“A pessimist might counter that the club has mostly feasted on sub-par teams in doing so.” They didn’t make the schedule and it is better than losing to those sub-par teams. You don’t get bonus points for beating good teams. In MLB, a win is a win is a win.
Right, but that means we’ll find out how good they are once they play the good teams
That is sort of what the bulk of the post is intended to indicate.
@ Jeff Todd- let’s revisit this question sometime next week or so. This weekend might be tell us if the current run is flash or substance
It’s a lot more interesting to ask the question now. No one ever ponders a mystery they know the answer too.
Exactly Jeff!
They’ve played some good teams in their 110 game schedule so far and the are only 1 game over .500!!! They really suck!!!
They split it th mighty Yankees
You ignore the writers point. This isnt some personal attack on the Mets as though they winning because they wrote the schedule. They might be winning because they are beating less than capable teams no matter who wrote the schedule.
Its not like anyone else in the NL is really taking charge of that wild card spot. They have as good of a chance as any other team.
It’d be crazy if there were enough ties at the end of the season to give the wild card its own mini bracket.
Last year, we had something similar with division title a wildcard ties. The division title tie-breakers were considered part of the regular season. The NL Central could have that again this year.
If their bullpen actually lives up to their potential then yes they will. They have the horses in the rotation and a good balance of contact and power in their lineup.
Starting rotation is probably the best in the NL East and maybe one of the top in the entire NL.
Dodgers have the best pitching in the NL
No, they don’t
Even though I know the answer why don’t you tell me who’s better? Go look at the team pitching stats smart guy.
Yes they have the pitching. They need to get Diaz right
Diaz was at his best in Seattle when the team ran him out there frequently. If the Mets can put him in more save situations I believe it’s only going to help him.
This entire roster is primed for positive regression. The bullpen has talent, Diaz has been getting very unlucky. The lineup has some juice, Ramos is starting to pick it up, McNeil is batting a million, Conforto and Alonso can drive in some serious runs, and Callaway may not be a great manager but he sure knows pitching. Maybe BVW actually knows what he’s doing and getting Stroman was strategic.
I still think it’s hard to judge Callaway’s performance given the strong evidence that he’s having day to day managerial decisions forced on him from upstairs.
I would not describe Diaz as unlucky. Walks and homeruns are not unlucky. I think he needs to go to Syracuse and figure out what the hell is wrong, He still throws hard, but he is almost as scary as Familia.
Look at Alonzo’s stats since the all-star break. He’s been terrible.
Look at Alonso’s last 24 AB’s. It looks like he’s come out of the slump.
Hell, look at his last game. Dude makes Trout look like a scrub
And look at everyone else who has picked him up. Conforto, McNeil, Cano (before DL), and Rosario.. just to name a few.
Depends primarily on how the bullpen does. Gsellman, Avilan and Wilson have all been pretty good recently, and they seem (rightfully so) to be more willing to start using Lugo instead of Diaz in high leverage spots.
Their bench is also an issue until Smith and Nimmo get healthy.
The Mets have the best starting rotation in baseball(Degrom-Thor-Wheeler-Stroman-Matz), and enough talent on the offensive side of the ball to make a playoff push
Astros have a better rotation.
Correct. And the way Darvish has been pitching the last month, I’d take the Cubs rotation over the Mets as well.
I take neither!!! They both stink!!!
In terms of FIP right now…
deGrom beats Cole
Syndergaard loses to Verlander
Wheeler beats Miley
The ceiling and youth of the Mets vs. the veteran savvy led Astros’ rotation., but I’m not sure why the Dodgers are getting overlooked. Ryu and Buehler both have FIPs under 3.00 and Kershaw has a 2.85 ERA.
The Nationals are right up there as well with Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin. No slouches there, either.
Cubs aren’t in the conversation for best rotation at the moment, even with Darvish starting to live up to his contract. The Cubs have a good rotation, but I don’t think they’re elite.
Wheeler gets pulled in the 2nd after the Astros bats knock him out of the game. You can throw that FIP out the window.
You left off Grienke… yes, Dodgers and Nats rotation probably above the Mets as well…. if you go by xFIP, astros top guys have three in the top 20 and Mets only have 1 (DeGrom)… we can pick and choose stats all day, but as far as a 5 man rotation is concerned, I have the Astros above the Mets. Nats and Dodgers would be a tough call to rank.
No they don’t!!!
Dude… quit leaning on the exclamation mark key
If they keep playing the Pirates, Padres and Marlins for the rest of the season then they have a great shot at the playoffs.
People will find out exactly where this Mets team stands when they actually play a good team.
Exactly. I’m going out on a limb here and adding the Phils aren’t going anywhere either.
Their current postseason probability is 13.4% according to Baseball-Reference. Based on the predictive method they use, every team ahead of the Mets has a higher probability of making the postseason. Even one behind them in the standings (Arizona) has a better chance. So the right answer based on the math has to be no.
I should’ve added a few other models in as well. Will do so.
Not sure what methodology Fangraphs is using to predict records but it seems Baseball-Reference is using a Monte Carlo method, which seems pretty sound. I also like that they derive a probability and a 90% confidence range for the number of wins and losses.
I’m sure they’re all using valid statistical methods. The Diamondbacks have a much better Pythagorean W/L than their current record and if BBREF’s model is using that; that’s likely the explanation for their extremely high playoff odds. Now I don’t think that takes into account the fact that they just traded Zack Greinke and their closer has imploded. A 33% chance for the Dbacks to get in seems like a complete fantasy. But like I said with a Pythagorean 63-50 record that puts them better than any WC contender but the cubs. Whom BBREF gives a 93% chance of getting in. Based on those numbers alone I’m going to say their model is heavily influenced by that Pythagorean W/L.
The Brewers, Cubs, and Cardinals all play in a division that is still up for grabs so that obviously boosts their odds significantly as well.
So it appears that model is all about how much you truly value a Pythagorean W/L record…. Obviously scoring more runs than your opponent is great and all but I’m not sure how predictive that is moving forward for a team like Arizona. Is BBREF’s model dinging them for the expected production lost by Greinke? There’s probably some adjustments that haven’t been made in that model. Obviously without seeing the underlying code it’s all speculation but it would appear that the Pythag is a large consideration in that model.
Any model that is based entirely on history and doesn’t take roster changes into account is going to have a much larger potential for predictive errors. What I get from reading Baseball-Reference’s explanation is they do take these changes into account. If you are familiar with Monte Carlo methods, which is what they seem to be using, it’s about running the probability exercise hundreds if not thousands of times to arrive at a distribution of results. That’s a much more sophisticated approach than simply using Pythagorean runs scored vs. allowed.
Sure, I’m familiar w a Monte Carlo simulation but any model is only as good as its inputs. I obviously do not know for sure if that the Pythag is the key driver between the odds difference there but it certainly would make sense.
If they fell on the other side of the fence in the three extra inning loses they had to SF, they’d be in the WC lead and within distance of first place in the east. Goes to show how ‘every’ game is in a 162 game season.
Make the playoffs or not. The Mets playing meaningful September games is good for baseball.
How is the Mets playing meaningful games good for baseball??? Literally no one cares about the Mets except their fan base. The only NY team anyone outside of NY cares about is the Yankees. No one pays attention to the B team
The rest of baseball will care about the Mets the EXACT same way they care about other teams. It doesnt make any since for you to pick on the Mets in particular. A good Mets team will be cared about by the fan bases of the Braves, Phillies and Nationals because they are all competing in the division.
The rest of baseball will care because division races are interesting and fun to watch.
Woodlawn in The Bronx?
There’s only one answer and it’s “lol mets”
I dont get it
if the Mets make it over the phillies i predict the entire organization’s staff will be sent packing.
You’ll still have Bryce to kick around. : )
Look at run differential. The Mets are already a better team than the Phillies. It’s not even a question of if the Mets will surpass the Phillies, they almost certainly will.
That being said, that doesn’t mean much in terms of getting the wild card. Lots of teams still in the race. I wouldn’t be shocked if both wild cards teams come from outside of the NL East.
The Mets have been a terrible road team but, their road schedule from here on looks relatively weak.
The pitching is getting sorted out and the positions are too I think it will be a dog fight for the final WC between WSN, SFG and the Mets. I’m rooting for the underdog Reds however.
They are the Muts – they will give their fans hope and then not be able to get it done. There is a pattern here. Just not enough talent and bad ownership
yall didint listen to me. Mets2019 AND METS2020
They all got reported
Does anyone really know? I laugh at all the “well this is feasting on sub par teams”. This is not the NCAA where their are completely different schedules. Haven’t the Phillies, Braves, Nats, etc. played the same teams? Mets have also played the fewest home games in baseball which hasn’t helped their cause. It’s a marathon not a sprint and Mets have given themselves a punchers chance with the schedule (home games) leaning in their favor. Lotta ballgame left.
Lol, and where was this 2 weeks ago?
I like watching the Mets when they’re playing well. Their games aren’t 4 hour long yawn fests like the other New York team. But I worry about the desperate New York baseball attitude of having to win every single game. It leads to an endless string of injuries and tedious statements about how incredible their record is with all their injuries and how deep their system is and blah, blah, blah.
yeah it’s like 2017 when all the excuses for doing so poorly were due to so many mets being Injured.
Mets had at the peak 9-11 injured. won 70 games.
Yankees have 17 and have won 73 so far. its not about a deep farm system, its fan pride in what a great job the organization has done in funding analytics, scouts and behind the scenes people and empower those decisions
blah, blah, blah.
just understand, most yankee fans don’t mind the mets doing well and rout for them, its extremely polar opposite for met fans. also real fans watch whether the mets are playing well or not
Sure they can
we call them the ‘Amazing Mess’ for a reason
the funny thing about Diaz is he is 8th in the majors in saves (1 save behind being tied for 5th). he’s had a handful of really, really bad games to inflate his numbers. I still don’t trust him, but I think people forget that he has 24 saves.
they have a chance because of the number of home games they have. I think they’ll come up a couple of games short, but they may still be in it going into their last series.
Wake up already, look who they have been playing. Home or road isn’t going to help when they start playing a real schedule
It’s so ’Mets’, that I could vote for both options in this poll!
Yeah I screwed that up. Fixed it!
Mets have the best starting rotation in the NL and their hitting is coming around. They’re going to make it.
As of right now in FIP
Ryu beats deGrom
Buehler beats Syndergaard
Kershaw beats Stroman (tied, but Kershaws ERA is better)
Maeda loses to Wheeler
The Mets have a great rotation, but I don’t think they have the clear cut best rotation. The Nationals with Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin also have an excellent rotation at the top.
imo, it remains to be seen if Stroman can replicate his Blue Jays numbers given how bad the Mets defense is. I’m not super optimistic but as a Mets fan, I hope he can.
Scherzer is hurt right now and not pitching in the upcoming series against the mets.
comparing rotations is sort of meaningless. for example, strasburg may be pitching against stroman, but they are facing 2 different lineups. it comes down to who is scoring more runs game to game.
my personal opinion is washington wins the east, atlanta gets the 1st wildcard and milwaukee, mets and cards fight for the 2nd wild card. I’m just not sold on philly.
You still holding onto the idea that the Nationals win the NL East? They are 6 games behind and that hasnt changed. For a while now. They arent even playing especially good baseball loosing 6 of their last 10 while the Braves are playing the Twins.
If they play the pirates and marlins every day
They are having a great run, but after the series with the Marlins the next 2 series are vs the Nats and Braves which will help determine the answer.
It seemed like Diaz was coming around for a minute but in his past 5.2 innings he’s given up 5 runs. If the Mets are going to keep running him out in the 9th then they need him to figure it out. They could start working someone else into the closer roll.
Next poll—- Odds the Mets, Giants and Reds all make the postseason this year
I would like to add that I believe whichever NL East team signs Kelly Johnson will win the division
Love the Mets, would obviously love to see them in the post season, but lets ask this question on Monday, after the 3 game series with Washington.
Going to remind me a lot of the series around this time with them in 2015. Stroman vs Strasburg, Syndergaard vs Corbin, and DeGrom vs Fedde
Should be the ultimate test for the Mets.
Mets and Astros in the World Series. 1962 expansion teams. Good times.
The Mets are 14-3 in the second half against the white Sox, Marlins, pirates and Padres.
Those 4 teams in the second half are 27-77.
This is as clear an example of playing awful teams at the right time.
Only Mets fans would take this run seriously.
Starting Friday they play 31 of 34 against winning teams.
Watch how they suddenly stop winning.
Team has zero depth and no one in the minors who can help, they are finished
No way in hell, they’re worse than the giants and even the dbacks.
The Mets have been playing some bad teams, and this is a pretty favorable stretch for them, BUT they’ve been consistently beating the teams they’re supposed to beat. That isn’t easy to do.
The Phillies have been stumbling since June. People blame the pitching, but their lack of offense is what is really killing them. They haven’t shown me anything that proves they have a run in them.
The Nationals are interesting. They can get hot. They have quality pitching. This could be the team to shatter the Mets hopes.
The Mets need to take 2 out of 3 from the Nats in their upcoming series. That’ll tell the tale.
There’s also a very strong possibility that no team from the NL East gets the wildcard. I was just using the Nats and Phillies because the Mets have plenty of games against them.
If the Mets had plenty of games iagainst the Marlins, white Sox and Pirates they might have a shot.
No team is winning with 1 reliable reliever, and that reliever can’t pitch back to back days to boot.
Factor in Cano is done for the year, Dom smith is pretty much done and this last 2 weeks has been fools gold.
They have no one in the minors who can help also. It’s going to be over by late August
Voted no because the way it is asked is essentially Mets versus the field (minus the other wild card team), and I can’t say they are better than 50/50.
But- I’d vote the same way about every other wild card contender as well.
The rotation is for real. The offense is good enough. The bullpen has been bad, but bullpens are always volatile (plus Diaz results don’t match his peripherals).
The defense? That’s bad and there isn’t a lot of reason to think it will improve.
They are a decent, but flawed team. Which arguably describes all but the Dodgers and Marlins in the NL.
The offense is average and now lost Cano and Dom smith for the season. Not sure hiw that makes them good enough
If you’ve been watching the Mets all year, you’ll realize that losing Cano may be a good thing, at least for morale. Dom Smith is great, but he doesn’t really play 1b because of Alonso. And Smith is no outfielder. So these two injuries are a non factor IMO.
I would disagree that Smith is non factor. Right now you have no bat on your bench or the minors you can call up. Maybe Cespedes comes back and fills that role or atleast you could move jd davis around to give guys a rest.
LOLMets are a treasure. Wish Bartolo was still around.
Glad people noticing the road-home games. Mets by far have played the least amount of home games. As for the easy schedule- most teams in no east either play or played those same teams
If Conforto and Ramos play the way they are capable, the offense will put up runs. If the starting pitchers are able to go deep into games, they certainly could fight for the Wildcard. Big “Ifs” but certainly possible!
I laugh when I see people use analytics to argue who is better. All major league players are great. Every game is a new contest and battle. Degrom,Thor,Wheeler throw as hard as any pitcher but success is based on location. If they locate their pitches no one touches them. It doesn’t matter if it’s the Braves or the Marlins.
When people say this game or that game is a must win, that is stupid, because the only must win game is the last game played that mathematically eliminates you.
The managers most important job is keeping his group of players playing hard and together. He can’t make them succeed no matter what game decisions he makes. I personally believe Mickey has done a remarkable job when you consider all the bs that comes from the media and talk shows that tends to enfluence the fans. The season is 162 games long, no matter how good or bad a team plays at any point the final results are what matters. That’s where the managers ability to steer the team thru the low times is challenged. At the trade deadline all the experts were calling for them to trade this guy and that guy and rebuild. Thank goodness they didn’t listen to the experts.