Dodgers left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu was arguably the favorite for the National League Cy Young Award just a couple weeks ago, though he’s now in the throes of a rough stretch that could damage his chances. After shutting out the Diamondbacks over seven innings on Aug. 11, Ryu was the proud owner of an incredible 1.45 ERA for the season. But since then, Ryu has trudged through three subpar starts, in which he allowed 18 earned runs on 25 hits over 13 2/3 innings. For reference, Ryu yielded a combined 18 earned runs across his previous 19 starts prior to his adverse run this mnth.
Despite his recent struggles, there is no question Ryu has been among the most effective hurlers in the NL this year. The pending free agent’s 2.35 ERA through 157 1/3 innings paces all qualified NL starters, while his K/BB ratio of 6.85 comes in second.Ryu’s advanced numbers – a 3.17 ERA, 3.42 xFIP and a 3.84 FIP with 4.2 bWAR/4.0 fWAR – aren’t quite as marvelous, but they still help place him smack dab in the Cy Young conversation with a month remaining in the regular season.
If Ryu’s going to take home the NL’s best pitcher honors on the cusp of a trip to free agency, there are a few starters he’ll have to fend off, including reigning winner Jacob deGrom. While the 31-year-old deGrom hasn’t been as unhittable as he was a year ago, when he posted a 217-inning season with 9.6 bWAR/9.0 fWAR, he he has been tremendous nonetheless. DeGrom has logged a 2.66 ERA/2.77 FIP with 11.4 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 and 5.6 fWAR/5.4 bWAR through 169 frames. As of now, he looks to have a real chance of repeating in the Cy Young race.
Back-to-back Cy Youngs aren’t foreign to Nationals right-hander Max Scherzer, a three-time winner who nabbed the award in consecutive seasons from 2016-17. Scherzer is currently leading NL pitchers in WAR, having notched a 2.46 ERA/2.22 FIP with 12.62 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9, though a relative lack of innings could be his undoing in the race. The 35-year-old has only thrown 142 2/3 after missing large portions of July and August with injuries. If you’re a voter who values dominance over innings, Scherzer should have a legitimate shot. Otherwise, considering health issues have prevented him from turning in a quality start since July 6, collecting a fourth Cy Young this year could be a tough task.
We’d be remiss to ignore that there are a few other potential winners in the NL, including two of Ryu’s teammates (Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw), a couple more Nationals (Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg), a pair of Reds (Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray), and the Braves’ Mike Soroka. Although the rookie Soroka is a ROY long shot because of the prodigious power Mets first baseman Pete Alonso has demonstrated, Cy Young voters may not be able to ignore his excellence. Even lights-out Padres closer Kirby Yates and Pirates game-ending lefty Felipe Vazquez could garner consideration if voters are willing to entertain a reliever winning, though the fact that they’re neither starters nor on contenders should help take them out of the running.
There’s clearly no shortage of candidates, evidenced in part by this top five leaderboard of notable stats among starters:
- ERA – Ryu: 2.35; Soroka: 2.44; Scherzer: 2.46; deGrom: 2.66; Kershaw: 2.76
- Innings – German Marquez: 174; Strasburg: 171; Madison Bumgarner: 169 2/3; deGrom: 169
- Strikeouts per nine – Scherzer: 12.62; Robbie Ray: 11.82; deGrom: 11.4; Yu Darvish: 10.81; Buehler: 10.79
- K/BB ratio – Scherzer: 7.41; Ryu: 6.85; Buehler: 6.61; deGrom: 5.49; Kershaw: 5.13
- Wins (if those still matter to you) – Strasburg: 15; Castillo/Kershaw/Dakota Hudson: 13; Ryu: 12
- bWAR – Scherzer: 5.5; deGrom: 5.4; Soroka: 5.3; Corbin: 5.1; S. Gray: 4.6
- fWAR – Scherzer: 5.8; deGrom: 5.6; Buehler: 4.6; Strasburg: 4.5; Corbin: 4.3
It’s not easy to find a clear-cut favorite for NL Cy Young honors yet, which should make the last month of the campaign all the more intriguing if you’re interested in who collects season-ending hardware. With only a few weeks to go in 2019, which pitcher do you see as the favorite?
(Poll link for app users)
Julio Teheran!
Hahahaa! This is a great post!
If Ryu can get back and have 4 solid outings its his award easy. His last 2 starts dont erase how good he has been all season
It’s more than the last 2, the last 3 starts have not been good. If he doesn’t have 4 solid outings he’s probably not winning it unless everybody else stinks.
Is Max going to actually be healthy and go past the 5th inning? Degrom’s last start was not that good. Theres questions all over yet everyone wants to focus on Ryu. The only think keeping Ryu from the cy young is how much rest the Dodgers give him
Well, the barrier for Ryu winning the CY is his history of injury. If it comes down to 2 or 3 guys, all who have been limited by injury this season, the guy with the most significant injury history will be the first one eliminated.
The voters are going to think, too bad about the injuries, but that guy Ryu seems like he’s always injured. So who’s been there the most over the last few seasons. Unfortunately for Ryu it isn’t him.
Not that Ryu is out of it, he could still perform well for the remainder of the season. He can win it, but it’s not simply his to lose, given the parameters.
Max!!
I think it’s Ryu’s to lose. If he gets back on track. He’s got this.
The correct answer is Ryu. But how is Soroka not one of the given options on the poll? If Scherzer and deGrom are on there, so should he. I’d almost be tempted to vote for Soroka over Ryu for the sole reason that Soroka has fewer wins.
because he is not playing in NY, LA, or Boston.
Nor is Scherzer
but Max is well-known within the sport. Soroka is a rookie whom I’m sure most fans have never heard of outside Atlanta and the South.
I’m sure all Canadian fans know of him
How can the correct answer be Ryu when the only stat he leads in is ERA? His home games are in Dodger Stadium, more of a pitchers park than the National’s home. The park adjusted ERA has Ryu at 177 and Max at 188.
Then Max leads in K/BB ratio as well as fWAR and bWAR.
I’m not a fan of either the Nat’s, Dodgers or Mets, and to me Max is the correct answer.
Tad you are correct
Would be cool if Soroka won but I think it’ll come down to Max and Degrom again.
Agreed, and Max will pitch the wildcard game most likely
From the looks of the votes the Cy Young will be close.
Should be Scherzer, but will probably be deGrom.
You told me Kershaw deserves to be knocked in previous cy young voting because he has not been healthy to put up innings the past few years. Now Max is hurt and has pitched 13.1 innings in the past month + and you dont hold that against him? Guess your ridiculous comments span across all sports here.
Ryu, Soroka and Kershaw get overlooked because people are so obsessed with strikeouts. Yes they are good way to view peripherals, but they are not the end all be all when judging guys who put up equally as good numbers. Yes Scherzer and Degrom are flashy than the others but its also easier to run up pitch counts on them. What Ryu and Soroka have done is more impressive.
The Cy Young is a results-based award, not a projections-based award. Only stats that should matter are ERA and IP.
Thats my point. Its not about how you get there. Its about the results.
mostly those, but other stats as well. obviously wins get a bad rep, but winning significaly more games on a worse team should help your chances.
@DarkSide830 absolutely freaking not! If it’s a toss-up between two guys it should go to the one with fewer wins.
And FIP, and xFIP, and K/9, and BB/9 among other things.
No. IP definitely. But ERA+ is superior to ERA. And FIP (or xFIP), SOs, and WHIP should also be considered, along with some of the ratio stats like BB/9, SO/9, HR/9, and H/9.
At the end of the day the pitcher’s only job is to pitch as many innings as possible while allowing as few runs as possible. So stick to the stats that measure those. I’d much rather have a pitcher with 7 K/9 and a 3.00 ERA than a pitcher with 11 K/9 and a 4.00 ERA.
All of them are within .31 in ERA. With all things being basically even, take the guy with the better ERA+, WHIP, FIP, K/9, K/BB, and BB/9. That would be Scherzer.
Ryu has been better at run prevention and at soaking up innings than Scherzer. Although Scherzer does have fewer wins, so if I had a vote I would be tempted to pick him just to spite the voters who vote based on wins.
ERA is misleading. Guys pitching in pitcher’s park are going to have an edge stat-wise, but may not be the better pitcher. At the very least you need the park-adjusted ERA+. And FIP is important because the pitcher with a bad defense behind him shouldn’t be penalized over a guy who benefits from pitching on a good defensive team. It’s not the pitchers fault for his team’s bad defense.
As much as I think a guy like Samardzija is undervalued, by your limited criteria his innings eating and 3.38 ERA, though not as good as Max or Ryu et al, still overvalues his abilities. You have to look deeper than just ERA and IP.
Fine, ERA+ is good as well.
My main problem with FIP is that it underrates guys who know how to induce weak contact and overrates guys like Chris Archer who strike a lot of batters out but give up way too much loud contact.
Yea, that’s why you look at other ratio stats like K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and H/9.
No one is saying to look at FIP exclusively. It needs to be looked at with all the other stats. It helps even the field between pitchers that have good or bad fielding teams behind them.
And why bring up Archer? Is he in the running for the CY? Besides he has a 5.03 FIP this season with a career 3.65. But he also has a bad BB/9, a not good WHIP, and other peripherals telling the whole story.
Not sure why you think you can reject certain stats that are illustrative even if they are limited in scope. FIP Along with all the other numbers help give you a more true picture.
“…Scherzer and Degrom are flashy than the others… What Ryu and Soroka have done is more impressive.”
How can they be “more impressive” when Scherzer leads all of baseball in park adjusted ERA, FIP, K/9. and K/BB?
Besides having better stats than those above, Max has a better WHIP than either Ryu or Soroka. And better bWAR and fWAR. So tell me why Soroka and Ryu are more impressive.
Scherzer has barley pitched in the second half. If he had a full season of this yes he would clearly be the best, but you cant give it to him based on his sample size yet. Ryu until his last start has kept his ERA under 2 all season and he had only been skipped 2 times. The way he has dominated all season until yesterday is more impressive and Scherzer barley pitching makes it harder to hold these bad starts against Ryu. Yes Ryu got lit up twice but Max cant even go 5 innings right now. Ryu has the best walk rate in baseball which is not flashy but more important than K rate. In the playoffs the Dodgers will at worst be able to run up Scherzers pitch count and get him out early, which they have done multiple times. Ryu took a no hitter into the 8th inning and went 6.2 innings 1 ER in the other start. Kershaw has had a quality start every time out this season. The argument can be made for him as well if he can finish that way. Not all the guys who pitch to contact are Brett Anderson and Kyle Hendricks. Those 2 are not going to last long term unlike Ryu, Soroka and Kershaw Pitchers WAR is biased towards strikeouts. FIP is a ridiculous stat, you cant just discount balls hit in play. WHIP is better but you dont award cy youngs based on it.
Ryu has pitched exactly 14 2/3 innings more than Scherzer. That’s 2 games, hardly enough to disqualify someone. Had Ryu something like 5 games more you would have a point. But it sounds like you want Ryu to win it and are looking for an excuse, instead of the facts, which have Max besting Ryu in most stats.
FIP is not ridiculous. It’s one of the stats you look at with all the others. It helps remove the influence of good or bad defenses playing behind the pitcher.
Rejecting some stats while favoring others is nothing more than cherry-picking, and gives you a false perspective All the stats need to be looked at, weighed as to what they say, and the cumulative results giving the most accurate picture.
I will say Scherzer needs to pitch to win it, and if he doesn’t it should go to someone else. But as it stands right now, number-wise, favoring anyone else besides Max is just fan bias.
There are two constants in those stats, Scherzer and degrom. The Nats will make the playoffs so clearly there is the tie breaker there
Aaron Nola
shame he got off to a bad start. if the Phils get in he might be able to steal a 3rd of two from Degrom though.
Wins are silly but you missed Max Fried on that list. He’s at 14 and in line for number 15 if the score holds in tonight’s CWS-ATL game.
You said it yourself. Wins are silly. Max Fried has no place in this discussion.
For the Cy Young, yeah, I don’t even think he warrants down ballot votes. On a list of the top five in NL pitcher wins, of course he does…
The top five innings guys list feels lacking with only four guys.
Yates
Scherzer has throw 15 less innings than Ryu and 27 less than DeGrom and might not qualify? Another quality Connor who? Article