It was an action-packed offseason for rookie Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, who stole headlines with his transactions and his bold proclamations naming his club the favorite in the National League East. Van Wagenen’s roster hasn’t performed to expectations since then, but after a tumultuous few months, the team has climbed above .500 and put itself in the thick of the NL wild-card race. One of Van Wagenen’s less heralded offseason pickups has been among the Mets at the forefront of their midsummer hot streak.
There was little hype accompanying the Mets’ acquisition of infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis from the Astros on Jan. 6. The Mets surrendered three minor leaguers for Davis, who – despite being a 2014 third-round pick and a solid prospect in Houston – didn’t have an obvious path to playing time with the Astros. However, the 26-year-old quickly worked his way into New York’s plans, thanks in part to season-opening injuries to infielders Todd Frazier and the still-hurt Jed Lowrie, and hasn’t graced the minors at all in 2019 after spending almost all of his Astros tenure there.
While Davis did hold his own at the lower levels with the Astros, he collected just 181 major league plate appearances from 2017-18 – in which he batted an unimpressive .194/.260/.321. On the other hand, the Mets’ version has amassed 293 PA and slashed a terrific .300/.369/.498 (131 wRC+) with 12 home runs and respectable strikeout and walk percentages (20.1 K, 9.2 BB). Much of the damage has come in the summer months for Davis, who overcame an unproductive May to post an .881 OPS in June and a 1.017 mark in July. His recent output has helped New York to a second-half awakening – after going into the All-Star break at 40-50, the team has shockingly risen to 57-56.
Although his production has benefited from a .347 batting average on balls in play – which is sure to drop considering the slow-moving Davis’ groundball-heavy profile – that’s not to say he has lucked into his success. To the contrary, according to Statcast, which places Davis in the league’s 91st percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, expected weighted on-base average, hard-hit percentage and expected batting average. As impressive as Davis’ .369 wOBA is, his .389 xwOBA is even better and ties for 17th among all qualified hitters, sandwiching him between Juan Soto and teammate/NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso. It helps, of course, that Davis has chased far fewer pitches out of the zone than the average hitter.
Regardless of whether the Mets do the unthinkable and rally to a playoff berth this year, it looks as if they have a legitimate long-term piece in Davis. As someone who has handled both right- and left-handed pitchers, the righty-swinging Davis has the makings of an everyday player. And while he has accrued more appearances in left field (38) than at third (31), it’s possible he’ll take over for Frazier – a pending free agent – at the hot corner next season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Glad he’s doing well in NY. Lots of potential but no chance to display in the Houston lineup.
Agreed. Davis has always been talented but was blocked in Houston.
Houston did something special to make their player development system so good. Many teams have guys with potential but fail to shine them up for big league play. The Mets are the latest team to benefit from an Astro system. The Tigers got JD Martinez from their scrap heap in a similar situation.
Any other JDs waiting to shine in the Houston org, then?
On the one hand, as a Mets fan, I completely understand how much of an embarrassment this organization is on the whole, and it all starts with the Wilpons.
On the other hand, the hate bandwagon for the organization borders on ridiculous, or maybe that’s simply a result of people being generally fickle and, for lack of a better term, stupid.
The fact that, just 2-3 months into his tenure, people were calling for Brodie’s firing is insane. No one should be evaluated on such a short period of initial performance. Moreover, many of these same folks were the ones who generally liked his signings during the offseason, including many folks who frequent Fangraphs.
Am I surprised that the team has surged as much as it has in recent weeks? Yes, but only from a probability perspective. Anyone who actually would have taken the time to look at the team’s roster could have seen some sort of run as being possible; the bigger question was whether it would happen soon enough before time ran out to compete.
JD, without question, was a good pickup for Brodie, and an especially astute one given the team’s roster construction at the time and JD’s own poor performance the year prior. Without his performance thus far, we’d still likely be in a dark place right now.
I couldn’t agree more. The hatred towards the Mets in these threads is incredibly stupid. Brodie Van Wagenen has already proven, to me at least, that he is a smart, aggressive & assertive GM. The J.D Davis pickup was phenomenal. Haters can bash the Diaz/Cano trade but at the time of the acquisition, it was praised by many experts. The fact that BVM was able to obtain Marcus Stroman for two prospects outside of MLB’s Top 100 is amazing.
This playoff surge the Mets are currently are is a result of BVM listening to his gut and letting this squad play their way to contention.
LGM!!!
I hope teams hate the Mets. In a sports hate kind of way, I hate their teams too. It’s competitive that’s all. The one thing I like about BVW is that he is trying to win. Some of his moves have worked and some have been a disaster. Too many teams are NOT. Too many teams talking about 3-4 years down the road that never come. LGM!
That sentiment I can certainly appreciate. I hate the Phillies, Nationals, Marlins and Yankees, but it’s all out of competitiveness and in good fun. And as much as I may hate them, I can also respect their accomplishments.
With the Yankees in particular, I have always admired Cashman as a GM. The way he has been able to balance winning vs asset acquisition is remarkable.
I’ve always had a soft spot for the Mets as I have a couple of close friends who are Mets fans. I totally get the hate though as I went through several years of tough tenure as a diehard Dodger fan during the McCourt years. Sometimes in an organization it does seem like everything turns to crap instead of gold and it drives you nuts. It’s hard to even believe with the Dodger’s great run in the last seven years that I used to expect them to get beat or have some new way of losing. You get jaded during that stretch. A real fan still roots for their team of course but it is very hard. I know this sounds like first world problems so I’d never expect sympathy and I suppose that’s how it is for Mets fans. You don’t get much sympathy.
I don’t mind people disliking our organization. We mostly deserve it, certainly. It’s just that I don’t think we deserve THIS level of hate, especially when the team would be more mediocre than outright awful.
As also a Jets and Knicks fan (kill me), I think those organizations have been far more of an embarrassment than the Mets have in recent years. So while I think we’re certainly in the lower tier of organizations in all of sports, for some people to suggest that we would be the very worst is crazy.
Who is this Joe Bedigno ?????
As also a Jets and Knicks fan (kill me), I think those organizations have been far more of an embarrassment than the Mets have in recent years.
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Pretty much, not close.
The NYJs aren’t exactly an embarrassment. I’d refer to them as merely ‘poorly run’.
The NYKs, however, are an embarrassment to all mankind. The NYMs are the poor cousin to the NYY. They’ll never have the same revenue stream.
But the NYKs should be kings of the NBA. When I first started going to MSG, the stands shook so much with the chants of ‘de-fense’, you’d wonder how they stayed intact.
It got to the point where I wouldn’t take my kid there for fear of her watching the Knicks and picking up bad habits. The last game I took her to, the Knicks had 12 straight possessions where they allowed a wide-open shot. The only good coach they’ve had in the last 17 years was Woodson.
But as soon as Jim Dolan hires back Isiah Thomas, all your troubles will be gone.
Local ny talkshow host
The Cano trade was pretty heavily criticized by a number of industry people. Most pointed out how ridiculous it was to go and acquire an old, expensive 2B when they already had McNeil in house, and much cheaper options on the market. They spent money and prospect capital to fill a non-existent hole. And that trade continues to look awful, with Cano doing what no one is surprised about, and Diaz being volatile like most other relievers.
The Mets did not make the trade to acquire an “old, expensive 2B”. The expectation with that part of the transaction was that while Cano would decline in his production, the other assets traded away in the deal would help to somewhat offset such a decline. Moreover, Cano was quite productive last season even after his PED suspension. It was not unreasonable for the Mets to expect Cano to produce decent numbers through the first year or two of his remaining contract and significantly decline thereafter.
And as volatile as relievers are, you would not expect a reliever of Diaz’s caliber—arguably the best reliever in baseball last season—to struggle this badly. To suggest such a notion is ludicrous.
If Brodie may a mistake, it was in signing Lowrie to that contract. At that point it was a case of one too many infielders, let alone one that was old and has had injury issues in the past.
They didn’t make the move for Cano
They made the move for Diaz
They just had to take that contract in order to get him
Diaz was the best Closer in baseball last year by a lot
The biggest mistake the Mets made was Ramos
He sets up to high and it makes the whole staff leave to many balls over the plate making them susceptible to HR
1-Cano never figured to be any good. Over the 36-40, only 2 players have accumulated 10 WAR in 5 years. A normal WAR aging would predict 2.4, 1.9, 1.4, 0.9, 0.4.
2-Even if he was good for a year, where was he going to play? You had Alonso & McNeil. on the right side.
3-Treinen was technically better last year, but I agree that Diaz was elite.RPs, or any elite player, there is always a breaking point.
Past that, I agree on Lowrie. Similar to Cano, the dude is 35, and his history is loaded with injuries. And just Cano, where do you plan on playing him? Once they signed Cano, then McNeil, by default, becomes their utility infielder. How often does your utility player’s backup utility player even get into a game?
The mets advanced metrics team deserves praise for seeing how well this guy could do. It rivals the yankees picking up Voit.
I thought the article was going to be about McNeil! Lol
I know that your powers of retention.
Mets look good lately…starting pitching alone should help them get back on track for a sustained run
Good thing they play Frazier at the corner instead who has no value and whose contract is expiring.
Frazier’s D at 3B is strong – and helps cover for Rosario’s lack of range.
Connor Byrne stays dropping fire on here.
JD has been an amazing pick-up. I see a lot of parallels between my Mets and my Nets this past year, though I don’t expect the Mets to have the same kind of off-season… However, JD reminds me a lot of Joe Harris. Both didn’t get the opportunity to show what they could do before they came to NYC. Joe was an integral part of the Nets’ run to the playoffs. If Mets make it, JD will have a lot to do with it. The Nets were ten games under .500 at 8-18. Most considered their season dead and thought the best they could hope for was the chance to use the first first-round pick of their own in years on Zion. They fought all the way to the playoffs. Now, the Mets were left for dead at 40-50 at the All-Star Break. The only team with a worse record in the NL was the Marlins. Fast-forward about a month and the Mets are 58-56. They’ve passed six other teams and are in striking distance of the wildcard game. There’s still a ways to go but it’s looking a lot better now.
Mets have an interesting group of young(ish) and cheap(ish) hitters- Alonso is likely NL ROY, McNeil may win batting title, Rosario after a bad start has gotten hot and has respectable numbers now on the year, JD Davis, Conforto, Nimmo (if he can come back from injury and return to last year’s form).
Too bad they have about a third of the payroll tied up in Cano and Cespedes, with another chunk tied up in Lowrie. If you could waive a wand and make those contracts disappear, Mets would be really well positioned.
Alas, they cannot.
The Astros really need to stop trading people named JD.
Yesterday I posted that the Mets were gonna win the NL East. Can’t believe all the follow up e-mails I received telling me I must have left the door unlocked at my house on Mars.
Well, we won again last night (Glad Wheeler is still here and not in Oakland.). The Braves won too, but after leading 11-0 they had to hang on 12-7 to win as their very suspect bullpen coughed up a bunch of runs. Phils lost and Nats won.
Come September, there’s gonna be a deGrom vs. Scherzer game that is gonna be for all the top cheese. laugh now, but you won’t be laughing for long.
Don’t you live on Saturn though?
Wish Met fans would stop the Monday morning quarterbacking. Every one knocks the signing of Lowrie but fails to analyze the reason behind it.
Alonso was slated for the minors early on, leaving first base to Frazier. McNiel was to play left field, placing Lawrie at third. Lawrie had come off two great years and provided flexibility as well. He was also going to give Rosario time as well.
They didn’t know how good Davis would be or if Smith could get it together. Obviously Alonso changed things right out of the box.
I think it is important to know the background behind all the moves. There is always a context which can easily be overlooked as time goes by