Eduardo Rodríguez has been the Red Sox most reliable starter this year. Sitting on 196.1 innings entering today’s final start against the Orioles, Rodríguez stands a good shot of eclipsing 200 innings for the first time in his career, which would make him one of only 15 pitchers to do so this season. His strikeout (24.6%) and walk (8.8%) rates are right in line with his previous career work, but a massive uptick in ground balls and improved health have helped the 26 year-old to a career-best season, with the high innings total paired with a solid 3.80 ERA.
With Rodríguez having emerged as a mid-rotation starter, many teams would be interested in locking him up long-term. The Red Sox, though, haven’t initiated any such conversations, he tells Rob Bradford of WEEI. Nevertheless, the hurler indicated he’d be amenable to a long-term arrangement if the team were to come knocking. “I still have two more years here. We’ll see how that goes. I love it here and I want to stay here for a long time. If they want me to, I’ll stay here,” Rodríguez said. “I haven’t had that conversation yet so I don’t know how that feels.”
That there haven’t been any talks as of yet isn’t too surprising considering the current state of the organization. Having fired Dave Dombrowski, the Sox are operating with a four-person crew heading up baseball operations for the stretch run, with the organization’s permanent leader still to be determined. No doubt, Boston will look to put a long-term front office structure in place before turning to key offseason roster decisions.
Also throwing a wrench into matters is the organization’s seemingly forthcoming effort to slash payroll significantly. Red Sox ownership expressed a desire this week to get underneath the competitive balance tax threshold of $208MM in 2020, a huge cut from the team’s estimated $240MM+ luxury tax figure this season. With the club already having $150MM+ on the books next season, not counting arbitration raises, there figures to be quite a bit of roster turnover.
While most of the attention has been focused on Mookie Betts, who is on track to become a free agent after next season, the situation with Rodríguez could likewise go a number of ways. Rodríguez and the Sox agreed to a $4.3MM salary to avoid arbitration last offseason, with two more years of arb forthcoming. Between his innings total, run prevention and 19 wins (which surely won’t matter to the Sox’s new front office head but will factor into his arbitration status), E-Rod looks poised for a significant raise in the coming months.
Buying out free agent seasons would only exacerbate the organization’s CBT concerns. Luxury tax calculations are based on average annual value of the players’ contracts, not actual yearly sum. Even if the Sox were to backload a Rodríguez extension, the present CBT calculation of any deal would be rather lofty, certainly higher than if the parties again settled on a one-year agreement to avoid arbitration.
If Boston indeed follows through on cutting payroll, there’s a chance Rodríguez even becomes an offseason trade candidate instead. Again, however, there’s little indication on how the organization plans to proceed until they bring in a new head of baseball ops. Dealing away Rodríguez would be difficult for a team that no doubt plans to contend in 2020, as the Sox’s rotation mix is filled with uncertainty. Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi and David Price all have their health question marks, while Rick Porcello is slated to hit free agency.
How the Red Sox choose to proceed this offseason will be among the winter’s most fascinating stories. Whether any arrangement can be hammered out to keep the youngest member of the rotation in the fold for the long-term certainly bears monitoring.
They need to do a lotta thinking this off season n trade Mookie ASAP! E Rod n the Sox will come to terms. What bout Mookie in San Diego?
Not ASAP pasha but as quickly as they determine what the trade value will be. By which time, they’ll know JDM’s decision. Regardless, my view is they should not extend ERod based on one year of solid health. His knee has been a concern every year and with the rest of the starters hurting, they need flexibility in case he too goes down next year. My take is they should explore his trade value this season. I’m not suggesting he has to go but they should see what the return is either separately or with Betts for example. No one is sending back their top prospect just for Mookie. However packed with ERod and you might get at least two top prospects back.
With all due respect Dewey a package of Mookie AND E-Rod is worth FAR more than two top prospects. Mookie alone should get ONE top prospect and a decent roster player or 2nd tier prospect. Sox HAVE to hold on to E-Rod
I said st least. no one knows what one year of a great outfielder is really worth.
Another thing everyone keeps forgetting with Mookie is this isn’t a mid-year deadline deal we’re talking about.
Any team that picks up Mookie, unless they decide to let themselves fall over the tax line, automatically gets a 1st round draft pick. They just need to extend a QO. It’s a given he signs his next deal for more than 50m.
So yes, for a player of Mookie’s caliber, plus a free 1st round pick in the draft with the signing bonus money it carries, should absolutely be worth most team’s top prospect.
Now. As far as Erod goes, do an extension with a Lackey clause. Just change it to reflect DL time due to knee rather than arm/shoulder. Misses significant time, gain an option year at league minimum.
Done.
That’s not how the system works. The only teams that could get a first round pick are the ones that receive revenue sharing. Teams like the Pirates or the Marlins aren’t going to take on a 30M contract and give up cheap, young talent just to have Mooke Betts for a year.
The teams that might consider him would get either a third or fifth round pick as compensation so it really doesn’t factor into the decision at all.
The Red Sox may get one good prospect or a package of mediocre prospects for Betts unless that take salary back in the deal.
I could see Erod traded in the right package, too. Good time to sell high.
jThat was my point. Asvgoidva yearbasvhe hssvhad. a) he still pitched nearly 4 runs a game and b) he’s an injury waiting to happen. Add in and he will start to get costly and this is the best time to sell.
LOL. spell check ruined my comment along with my fat fingers. As good a year as he’s had…
the Padres seem very bullish about trading prospects in general. i doubt they do it for a rental, especially given they will never tie up all that money in Myers Hosmer Machado and Mookie. they need to make sure they have money to adress the rotation and pen too.
Besides it’s hard to see SD truly competing next year without focusing on pitching first that they would want to part ways with top prospects for a 1 yr guy. I’d see them being more in if Mookie had 2 years left.
I’ve often wondered why contract dollars are assigned on an average annual value over the life of the contract instead of actual dollars paid each season? Is it so teams can’t massage the numbers with deferred money?
That’s exactly it. It deters teams from front or back loading contracts to get around tax thresholds.
i would wait an offseason if they want to get under the luxury tax this offseason. gotta add more players anyway, theyll need that money elsewhere.
If the Twins don’t get Keuchel in the offseason, I’d love to see Falvey go after E-Rod. We could really use a competent lefty in the rotation, and Perez isn’t cutting it.
i dont see the Sox trading their best affordable young starter. they aren’t rebuilding, just retooling.
It’s a rebuild. Too much underperforming salary at the top and no farm system.
It’s not a rebuild.
They just want to get under the tax line. I think a rebuild would mean getting rid of all the high-priced guys and that would be impossible.
You’d have to attach young Talent or pay almost all of the salaries of those guys… sale, price, Eovaldi, and that’s impossible to do in this situation.
Number one we don’t have the young guys, number 2 if we pay the salary that doesn’t help the bottom line money-wise.
Essentially a retool. Couple guys here and there and they are right back in it if, capital letters IF the starters perform as needed. The offense is there already. Trade mookie for maybe two or three young guys that’s about it. Maybe Jackie Bradley gets traded also.
If JD opts out they are well under the lux tax and still have a very talented team if SP shows up. Only an idiot goes to a rebuild and trades Mookie. If JD stays they can still get under lux tax, though it’ll be tight. Only have to fill 1B w Chavis-Travis-Dalbec, second w Hernandez-Chatham-Pedroia, and 5th starter w Hernandez-Johnson-Wright-Houck. That can easily happen.
I think if they’re saying they want to get below the luxury-tax line they’re not going for a championship next year. It’ll be a reset. That means they trade mookie and get something for him before he walks next winter. JD Martinez is opting out too, that’s for sure.
Yes they have high-priced starting pitching and either one of these two things happens it would be fantastic. Number one the starters perform well which would mean a successful season and in the playoff hunt because their offense is good enough, or number two they find a taker for one of those guys and get them off the books. Either of those two would be an amazing thing. Just as long as it’s not like this year again.
I think the Sox should keep E-rod in the fold at least for the next 2 arbitration years and wouldn’t be opposed to them trying to work out a long term extension. He’s always been talented and seemingly “this close” to turning the corner and establishing himself as a legitimate #2/3 SP and surely did so this season. He’s also young, more or less affordable and still possesses significantly above average stuff. I think they’d be crazy – especially given how poorly the rest of their rotation pitched this season – to trade him now when he’s seemingly their most consistent and affordable rotation option. However with that said… if some team comes in and blows them away with an offer… I don’t think he’s a ‘budding ace’ I think he is what he is… a VERY solid mid-rotation SP and if another team views him as much more than that… then sure they should consider moving him if the return is too good to pass up.
Heres what I would offer the Red Sox to get under the luxury if I was with the Braves
Braves get
Sale
Betts
Red Sox get
Waters
Weigel
Anderson
Griffin Benson
You get a decent young outfielder in Waters two top tier pitchers in Weigel and Anderson and future stud in Benson who plays first base who is a switch hitting 6’5 who could hit for power. The Braves absorb Sales contract and Betts offered a 9 year 275 million contract
That’s the kind of talk I like. The Sox have had half a season to be making a list of top/ mid tier people that would help from each team.
You would think they could find a Glasnow, Adames, Torres that are on the cusp of making a difference. That’s what scouting talent is all about: finding the Diamond in the Rough.
The Sox have Lin to take Holt’s place. Too bad we won’t get something for Holt and Moreland.
The Braves would laugh at that offer. Betts and Sale combined have negative value due to the obvious decline of Sale. The Braves would be adding 60M to their payroll and still be far behind the Dodgers. Then Betts leaves next year and they are stuck with Sale?
The Dodgers bailed the Red Sox out once with their bad contracts but it sin’t going to happen again.