In a post published for The Athletic this morning, reporter Patrick Mooney relayed quotes from Cole Hamels that indicated the pitcher’s openness–if not downright interest–in pitching for an NL Central club next season, regardless of whether or not the Cubs elect to re-sign him (link).
While the main substance of Mooney’s piece, on the whole, attempts to recap an uneven 2019 that saw Hamels in both dominant (pre-All-Star break) and floundering (post-All-Star break) forms, the most interesting takeaway may have been the hurler’s comments regarding his pending free agency. While Hamels was straightforward in saying he would “love” to be a Cub, he pointed out to reporters–and, perhaps, by extension, Cubs president Theo Epstein–that the NL Central has been a comfortable pitching environment for him during his time in Chicago.
“I obviously do very well at Wrigley,” Hamels said in Mooney’s piece, speaking of his free agency options. “Hopefully, that’s what they think about. Otherwise, I know the other teams in the division are going to think about it. If you have to come to Wrigley three different times, I don’t pitch bad there…I know I do very well in the NL Central.”
While this ultimately may amount to little more than a bit of lighthearted dialogue between a veteran pitcher and a beat reporter with whom he has developed rapport, it seems noteworthy that Hamels may already be imagining himself in the uniform of another NL Central club. Certainly, it would be painful for Cubs fans to see Hamels defect after establishing himself as something of a club rival killer during his time on the North Side.
As Mooney points out, Hamels has posted sterling career numbers against NL Central teams in his career, dating back to his time in Philadelphia:
• Hamels vs. Cincinnati: 11-2, 2.30 ERA (20 starts)
• Hamels vs. Milwaukee: 8-5, 3.53 ERA (20 starts)
• Hamels vs. Pittsburgh: 5-4, 2.52 ERA (13 starts)
• Hamels vs. St. Louis: 5-6, 2.21 ERA (17 starts)
Hamels, of course, just concluded the final season of a 6-year/$144MM extension signed with the Phillies in the midst of the 2012 campaign. The burnished 35-year-old lefty was in the midst of a vintage season in 2019, compiling a 6-3 record and 2.98 ERA up until the night of June 28, when he was afflicted with an oblique strain that, presumably, curtailed his availability and performance moving forward; Hamels missed all of July following that injury, before ultimately posting a 1-4 record with a 5.79 ERA in the second half amidst a team-wide Cubs collapse.
Among NL Central teams that could be a factor in luring Hamels away from Chicago, St. Louis could certainly be in play if they lost their own veteran leader in Adam Wainwright (though it’s worth noting that the Cards still have Alex Reyes recovering on ice). The Brewers should be looking for improvement after a one-game playoff ouster, but they may feel ultimately more comfortable in pursuing a re-up with Gio Gonzalez, the lefty veteran they already have in hand. The Reds, meanwhile, have a rather stacked dance card when it comes to 2020 starting pitching, whereas the Pirates don’t figure to be in the market for near-term, high-AAV veteran free agents like Hamels.
Looking ahead to free agency, Hamels may join an interesting caste of experienced, mid-30s veterans who should comprise something of an open market second-tier for clubs that sit out the Gerrit Cole sweepstakes. Like Dallas Keuchel, Rich Hill, and Wainwright, Hamels should offer a cocktail of experience and clubhouse leadership, dashed with a fair amount of risk for injury and regression.
Still mad that he got lit up just before the Rangers traded him… coulda gotten better prospects
I think he’s got plenty in the tank to be a solid rotation piece for most teams. He’s gonna have to take a pay cut, especially if he wants a multi year deal.
Straight up guessing… I’m gonna predict 3 years at a lowish cost to a contender, 2 years at a reasonable cost to a team rebuilding that would hope to flip him. I think cubs make a lot of sense still.
Especially if the Cubs decide to rebuild this offseason or at the trade deadline
Yea but Theo is on record (two years in a row now) about changes. Hamels at 36-37 will now always be a little bit of a risk for at least small injuries like this year. But that small injury really cost the Cubs as Hamels was never the same. If Theo counts on Hamels and it blows up it could be Theo’s job next year.
They may take some of the money saved and go for someone like a Zack Wheeler. Young. Good upside. In his prime and a power arm they are looking for. That would most likely be a 5 year deal which would be fine. They need to lock up someone like that.
I think it would be a one year deal with perhaps a vesting option for the second year. I do not see the Cubs at least going more than that.
A lot of other teams need SPs so doubt he resigns with the Cubs.
He’ll get a better offer elsewhere.
Philly will no doubt try to bring him back to finish his career there. He’s also shown interest in coming back.
He’ll be back in Philly, mark my words
The best sequel to the two Roys would be two Coles.
Amen to that.
Sadly for you gerrit cole is going to cali
I’ll take Hamels and Mad Bum
Not if Middleton’s money is stupid enough.
So was Harper
NC squared.
Cole Hamels and Cole Irvin?!?! (yes I’m being sarcastic and know you’re referring to Gerrit Cole and not Irvin haha)
Cole Hamels and Taylor Cole??
I’d love to have him back in philly. We need reliable starters and we loved him here the first time.
Could easily see sd or the angels go for him
i wouldnt be surpised if he goes to SD. he’s from there and there is a need for a veteran starter.
Since he will want more than $2M per year, my Pirates have no chance is signing him….
It’s a shame too bc he’s the exact type of guy the Pirates need in that rotation.
His wife is from Jefferson City, Missouri. Not all that long ago they donated their $10 million house that was under construction to a children’s charity. He is talking about staying in the National League Central. Hmm…come on home Heidi Strobel. Please.
He’s from San Diego is the padres really want him he’ll come home .
Pretty nice speculation
no different than your speculation
I’d take a flyer on Hamels for sure. At his age he won’t get a multi year offer and he’s shown signs off brilliance even if he didn’t bounce back well after his oblique injury. I could see him helping a number of teams including the Cubs and other NL Central clubs.
Padres and angels and phillies stand out as top places for him to land.
Agreed. LA is going to blow their wad on Cole, Gerrit that is.
Middleton isn’t going to let him go anywhere other than Philly unless someone overpays for him. He’s going to do everything reasonable to bring Cole back. Hamels still does charity work in the area and has openly said several times that he wouldn’t mind finishing his career where it started.
Let’s face it, the Phillies need him right now. Moreso than he would need them
sterling numbers against cincy, mediocre against the rest. is boras mooney’s agent?
he’s got a sub 3 ERA vs CIN, STL and PIT. his best ERA is vs STL… so what are you talking about?
Milwaukee should be all over signing Hamels. They need an anchor in that rotation and would be a nice veteran addition.
He’d be a fantastic #4 starter in the Reds’ rotation. Castillo-Gray-Bauer-Hamels-DeSclafani with Mahle as depth.
My thought exactly…
Problem for Keuchel is that he (and Boras) think of him more as more of a Cole (Gerrit, that is) than a Hamels.
nobody, including boras thinks hamels is gonna be getting gerrit cole type offers. where do you people come up with this stuff? just making it up?
Spinach is talking about Keuchel saying Keuchel thinks of himself as Gerrit not Hamels.
I think the Cubs would be moronic to not bring him back for $5 or $6 million, as a 4th or 5th starter. It’s gonna be a steep pay cut, but he loves being a Cub.
he’ll get more than that elsewhere. even with a paycut he’s still gonna be in the $12-$15M range.
Doubt it…..
I don’t know. You could be right, seeing as how the market is pretty insane right now, but he’s still a soon-to-be 36 year old pitcher…..
Young for life, but old for baseball. If I was a GM, I wouldn’t go more than 2 years and 18 million.
Hard pass on Hamels. His regression was epic, especially in big games where they needed him to put up a quality start. Injuries didn’t help. Not worth the kind of money he’s looking for.
you sound clueless
What makes you say that?
Injuries were the cause of the regression.
I could see Cole Hamels remaining in Chicago and pitching for either the Cubs or White Sox in 2020. Clearly the Cubs will be short a starter next year while the White Sox figure to be looking for a couple of veterans in their rotation to supplement a young staff that has two pitchers returning from TJ surgery. Michael Kopech should be fully recovered from his procedure when pitchers and catchers report to spring camp in February but Carlos Rodons’ surgery occurred last spring and will keep him out of the rotation until at least mid-summer. Rodon is the only sure bet southpaw in the White Sox rotation so pursuing a lefty like Hamels or another pending free agent in Dallas Keuchel makes a lot of sense for Chicago’s south side team.
Hamels is a borderline candidate for a qualifying offer from the Cubs next month (mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/forecasting-the-qualify…). If he receives one there is a good chance he accepts it and return to the north side. If he doesn’t accept it and enters free agency with the tag that would pretty much eliminate the White Sox who don’t figure to sacrifice their second round pick next June along with $500k in international signing bonus dollars to sign a pitcher who will be 36 in December to a short term contract. Keuchel can’t be hit with another QO after being tagged with one last offseason so he would make more sense for the White Sox even if he requires a longer contract commitment.
Keuchel had some injury concerns after winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2015 but has been fully healthy the past two seasons and is also 4 years younger than Hamels. I could see the White Sox offering the Mark Buehrle ‘clone’ a 3 year guaranteed contract with another vesting option or two based on games started or inning pitched. Hamels could probably be had for a 2-3 year deal without the stigma of a QO attached to him.
Glad you’re not a GM.
Why? Do you have a reason? The analysis seems plausible…..
No offense, but his analysis sounds like something straight out of a media guide. It’s conventional. The reality is Hamels will be 36 years old in December, and struggles past June due to injuries and fatigue. If you actually watched all of his starts, you would be aware of this. If you didn’t, and all you have to go is stats, you would have a very different impression. He’s a useful starter at a much lower salary—$10M, $12M tops. As long as you know he must skip starts to stay fresh, and might be unreliable as a playoff starter.
I’m sure a Sox homer that wakes up at the crack of dawn to troll whatever new Cubs post there is that day is totally non bias in his opinions. You provide no context as to why the analysis above would be incorrect outside of “watching the games”. Stop claiming you watched every Cubs game too, you would have to be an immensely pathetic and angry person to watch every game of the team you hate.
Nah, I’m a fan, not a spectator. I pay for the MLB package so I can watch as much baseball as I can stand. My take on Hamels has nothing to do with cubs/White Sox. It’s my unbiased interpretation as a baseball fan. He’s just not worth $20MM per year at this point, and a lot of “experts” agree. The Phillies should offer him a 1-yr contract to finish his career with the team/city that he loves. He’s a great guy, he deserves that. But any team expecting to contend with him will probably be disappointed.
Cole Hamel suffered an oblique strain on June 28th that cost him the month of July and clearly impacted his effectiveness for the remainder of 2019. If he had suffered a more sever injury to some part of his left arm that would be far more concerning, especially for a pitcher who will turn 36 in December. But since you “actually watched all of his starts” you should know this…or not. lol
Who here is claiming that Cole Hamels is a $20m AAV pitcher at this point of his career? A QO from the Cubs is hardly a guaranteed outcome following the World Series, a borderline call per this own site. If Hamels gets one he will most likely accept it since he won’t sniff an estimated $19M per year figure, especially if tagged.
If Hamels is not offered a QO he will still be fortunate to receive an AAV that is worth half of the $24M he earned with the contract extension the Phillies gave him back in 2012. Even if he got a deal with a $12M AAV, it would likely be a max guaranteed deal of two years with maybe an additional vesting option attached to it.
Philadelphia
He is going to join Joe with the Angels. 🙂
All the rival NL central teams have poor offenses, so of course he dominated them. No coincidence the Brewers fared best of the four teams. They’re the only ones that can hit.
these numbers aren’t just from 2019
No one will sign Hamels. He will be forced into unwilling retirement much the same as John Lackey. Too old, too expensive, too injured.
Dead wrong on this. Teams salivate over lefty pitchers. If he’s healthy, he will get a job with ease. BTW, if the Cards are counting on Reyes for the future, then fire Mozeliak right now.
He’s 36 years old. He’ll get a deal somewhere. The question is for how much, and how long. Nobody’s salivating over Cole Hamels though.
It all depends on where Hamels wants to play, and if he’s ready to take 5th starter money at 2 years. He’s made enough money. Now it’s just a matter of where he feels comfortable. So a 2 year deal at $18-20M total, for a guy to mentor a young staff, a place like Anaheim or SD would be perfect for him.
Unless Hamels is intently inclined to stay in the NL Central, the Padres would be a great fit for him in more ways than one.
– First and foremost, he’s from SD — these kind of things may be overblown somewhat, but I think it can definitely be a factor.
– Second, the Friars are seemingly on the cusp of contention and he could be that veteran, “been there done that” leader, the club desperately needs — especially in their rotation.
– Lastly, Petco remains a stable ballpark to pitch in.
He would be better for Anaheim. Hes much cheaper than Gerrit Cole
do people still think STL is relying on anything out of alex reyes? dude is made of glass. he’s already halfway to free agency with a total of 53 big league innings.
Counting on Reyes would be a huge mistake. It isn’t just his injury history. It’s also his attitude history.
Hamels to The Yankees or Phillies
I can see Hamels going to Anaheim