Jake Odorizzi will take the ball for the Twins tomorrow evening at Target Field. With Minnesota facing elimination, it could be the impending free agent’s final start in their uniform. Odorizzi has started 62 games for the Twins since coming over from the Rays via trade prior to the 2018 season. Have those performances been enough to warrant a qualifying offer?
MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently examined the qualifying offer market for pitchers (and position players, for that matter), noting that Odorizzi presented a borderline case. On the surface, his 2019 numbers would seem to make a QO a no-brainer. This season, Odorizzi worked to 3.51 ERA and 3.36 FIP, each of which ranked in the top 25 among pitchers with 150+ innings. Under the tutelage of first-year pitching coach Wes Johnson, Odorizzi’s stuff ticked up, as his 93 MPH average four-seam fastball, per Brooks Baseball, was a career-high. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he shattered his previous career-best strikeout rate (27.1%, up nearly five points from last season). Further, Odorizzi was essentially immune to the leaguewide home run spike this season, coughing up a career-low 0.91 HR/9. Put it together, and Odorizzi was worth around 4 wins above replacement, per both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, easily worth the approximately $18MM he would lock in if he were to accept a qualifying offer.
Of course, though, teams look beyond a player’s previous-year stats in projecting future performance. Odorizzi doesn’t turn 30 until March and has started at least 28 games in each of his six full MLB seasons, so durability and age are on his side. Yet entering this season, his track record was more that of a back-end innings eater than the #2 starter he seemed to be in 2019. From 2016-2018, Odorizzi worked to a 4.09 ERA with a 4.60 FIP, with one of the league’s lowest ground ball rates causing home run problems. Even in 2019, Odorizzi remained a fly ball pitcher, part of the reason the Twins chose to hold him for Monday in Minnesota rather than having him work in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. It’s difficult to imagine him maintaining an 8.8% HR/FB rate moving forward, and his pre-2019 strikeout and walk numbers were hardly eye-catching. If a few more of Odorizzi’s fly balls begin clearing fences and/or his strikeouts regress to their previous levels, his elite run prevention numbers could bounce back up in a hurry.
It’s also notable that Odorizzi’s pure stuff, even with the aforementioned velocity uptick, isn’t world-beating. Per Statcast, Odorizzi has below-average fastball velocity (23rd percentile), fastball spin (40th percentile) and curveball spin (17th percentile). That’s sure to catch the attention of front offices, who increasingly have turned back to valuing raw stuff on the free agent market. Odorizzi can’t rival someone like Zack Wheeler when it comes to GIF-worthy pitching overlays, and just last offseason we saw Dallas Keuchel, whose multi-year track record dwarfed Odorizzi’s, languish on the free agent market after being tagged with a QO.
There’s also the Twins’ situation to consider. Minnesota only has $19.88MM committed to 2020 salaries, per Baseball Reference. They’re sure to exercise Nelson Cruz’s $12MM option and have a hefty slate of arbitration-eligible players, but they’ll nevertheless enter the offseason with ample financial flexibility. They’ll also have plenty of opportunity in the starting rotation. With Odorizzi, Michael Pineda and Kyle Gibson slated to hit free agency and Martín Pérez looking increasingly likely to be bought out, there’s almost nothing in the way of certainty behind José Berríos. Of course, merely having vacancies in the rotation shouldn’t mean the Twins feel compelled to QO Odorizzi if they feel that’d be a questionable investment.
So we’ll turn it over to you, MLBTR readers. How would you advise baseball ops heads Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to handle Odorizzi’s situation this winter?
(poll link for app users)
No app link
Sorry, first one of these I’ve run. Should be all set now. Thanks for the heads up!
No brainer?
Seems like a redundant question.
No link because the decision has already been made, they will QO him barring a major injury.
This is odd. The link for the poll works on Facebook.
QO isn’t a verb
Lol
It is in baseball
Neither is google but people use that as a verb too
Yes, offer the man a QO…
So how does a fly ball pitcher survive this years HR spike?
Fluke?
That’s a no brainer. He might accept and then hit the market without one next year. I don’t think he will. Too many contenders need starters right now, it shouldn’t impact his market that much.
I don’t really get why it matters if teams need starters or not. He’s a career back end starter, over a long period who more than likely had a fluke season. Why would he get any LT deal at a time where teams have pretty much stopped giving them out to these types?
He fits the bill perfectly of a guy who jumps all over a QO, should it be offered.
It’s hard to imagine a few years ago a Mike Pelfrey or a Jordan Zimmerman were getting multiyear big dollar deals. On this market, he’d be a fool to pass on a QO and the Twins would be fools to offer him one. If the Twins want to keep him, they had best communicate bigly and fastly, offering that 2/24 or 3/30 or 4/38 right out the gate.
You point out disastrous long-term deals for not that great pitchers (well Zimmerman actually was quite good) that ended up being disasters and then you conclude with…lock up Odorizzi to a long-term deal rather than a one-year deal?
True, Spinach, except that he’s suggesting $10-$12 mill. AAV for 2-4 years, about half the AAV Jordan Zimmerman got (5 yrs./$110 mill.).
A 2/24 would be reasonable for Odorizzi and I’d take him back for that. If you expect anymore than #4 starter production I think you’re setting yourself up for disappointment. If he gives you a bit more then that’s great; but don’t bank on it. Id take him for that deal over the QO any day of the week. But not a penny more. There’s too many comparable starters to Odorizzi on the market this year.
Don’t know where you’re getting this back end starter stuff as his ERA has been very consistent and is under 4 for his career.
Did you consider Porcello a back end starter in 2018 when he had his great year?
If anything you might challenge his innings load year to year, but while he wouldn’t be considered an Ace or even a #2, depending on the team, he’s definitely a #3-4.
He may very well be offered the QO by the Twins, but in a league where starting pitching is at a premium this guy has leverage for a deal longer than the 1 year QO.
He can get a longer deal but he sure as hell isnt going to beat the AAV. If he wants a 3/33 I would imagine he may be able to find that. And he very well may prefer that but I don’t see anyway in hell he gets a guarantee around 50MM. Teams don’t want another Phil Hughes, Alex Cobb or Ian Kennedy lying around.
You’re essentially agreeing with John anyway. A back end starter is a #4. If you want to make an argument for Odorizzi being a #3 that’s fine. Some years he puts up #3 starter production but he doesn’t do that consistently. He also doesn’t pitch deep into games. A guy like Porcello offers a higher floor for that reason alone.
If I were the Twins I believe you’d get a significantly better bang for your buck resigning Michael Pineda to a deal for a fraction of what Odorizzi will cost. Use those savings to go out and get a better starter to pair with Berríos.( ryu, wheeler, possibly Bumgarner depending on his price)
Probably from 2016 & 2017 & 2018 where Odorizzi went from #3 to #4 (with scary peripherals) to #5 caliber starter. This looks very much like a career year for a starter who struggles mightily to make it through 6 innings. In fact, Odorizzi started 30 games this year yet is not a qualified starter because he didn’t make it to 162 innings pitched. He’s almost a hybrid between a long reliever and a true starter.
All it will take is one minor step back and whatever team signs him will be stuck with a barely rosterable rotation arm through the duration of whatever contract he signs.
If they offer him a QO, he’s accepting it. I think he’s more of the 2018 pitcher than the 2019 pitcher we saw, and I’m not so sure he’s worth the 18 million. I think he signs for something closer to 1/13 or 2/24.
Nah. He has good numbers, but not great. He is a solid pitcher, but definitely not elite.
True, but teams would eat up that sub 4 ERA….. He definitely looks to be pretty solid yet unspectacular.
It’s not 2005. I suppose it could happen, but teams look at more than last year’s ERA now.
They have plenty of space under the cap. QO him. If he hits, great. If not, it’s just 1 season.
This is it right here.
It’s probably an overpay for 1 year…. but they’ve got lots of room and it’s only one year.
Or he declines and they likely get a draft pick. Not a lot of downside.
Put it like this. 5 years ago, before the bubble burst on giving out such contracts to middle-back of the rotation types who just eat innings, Rick Porcello signed a 4-80m extension (he had 1/12.5m on old deal) at the age of 25. Both Porcello and Odorozzi’s past were very similar. Porcello averaged nearly 200IP before signing the extension and some will say the 80m extension worked OK, he did win a Cy Young and 4 of the 5 years provide nearly 200 innings, then that is judged against contracts awarded prior to 2016-2017.
Lets compare them to the deals, say Cashner and Alex Cobb received. Cobb.. With a solid history of winning, got 50m and hurt now of course, but see how that contrasts with the back end odorozzi, who most of his career was well behind him in the same Rays rotation..
Cashner, who has been a mid-back end SP for years (tho just 32) with about same numbers as Odorozzi signed last year for just 2/15m
It boggles the mind wondering how people thing Odorozzi is some Steve carlton that will break the bank
It’s a risk sure but for 1 year & the Twins having ample payroll so he is worth it for 1 more year at the QO. Their only other option Is to do what the Angels did & risk singing 1 or 2 FAs to 1 year deals.
They should post this AFTER Monday’s game.
He’ll probably accept a QO. The following winter’s FA class at least at this point is pretty weak and he’ll be in a good position then.
And without the QO tag.
He won’t get what I believe he thinks is his true value. He’s not even a Top 5 or 6 FA starting pitcher this winter with or without a QO offer attached. The following winter as it stands now he’s probably in the Top 2 or maybe even the Top starting pitcher especially with no QO offer attached.
You point out his season ending counting stats but you failed to mention that one June 9 his ERA was at 1.92. From there through the end of the season his ERA was 4.77 … more like the rest of his career. HR rate until June 9 was 0.51/9, after June 9 it was 1.21/9. You could say some of that was a function of pitching in colder weather the first six weeks of the season but I think — just like the rest of the Twins pitchers — he was just lucky and regression kicked him in the rear. So the twins would be stupid to give him a QO especially since he was only paid $9.5M this year.
Twins foolishly didn’t acquire a pitcher or pitcherS at the trade deadline. They didn’t or wouldn’t believe that the win totals were bloated by hammering the weak underbelly of the American League. So now, the Twins losers of 15 consecutive post season games, will be blasted out of the playoffs yet again. Shocker.
Could it be that no one was available at a fair price???? This Twins team is ahead of schedule according to the Falvey/Levine plan. So holding future MLB talent instead of throwing it away for a rental was wise.
Why do you think it was a rental? Plenty of arms were available. They didn’t want to pay a price. They won’t pay the price during the off-season either. Come to think of it seems Twins don’t ever pay. Golden opportunity missed.
What I’m saying is the price was too high. Rental or controllable starter. Was smart to not over pay with talent when they have money to burn. Also can’t forget the starting pitching was pretty good up to a few weeks before the deadline.
Are you Derek Falvey? Listen, Derek. There will never ever be an “ace” caliber pitcher available in trade or free agent signing for a “fair” price. It’s supply and demand out there and ace pitchers are very rare and very desirable commodities.
You either overpay prospects and talent to trade for an ace (rare one is even available like there was this year) or you overspend. The Twins ownership and front offices have proven time and time and time again they’re not willing to do either and they can’t seem to figure out a way to develop one.
Why not? They have open spots in the rotation and won’t be overpaying him too much even if he accepts.
No. I don’t think he’s an $18mm arm. I think he’s a 3/45 range arm. Why over pay just to retain his services? Even though pitching is at premium rates of have to pass on handing him a QO.
If you think he is worth $15 million/yr for 3 years then 1 year at $18 million isn’t an overpay.
It sure is by $3mm. Take it how you will but $15mm per is what he’s worth.
So you would give him a $5 million dollar raise just to keep him around? Not counting their arb and renewable contracts, they technically only have Kepler and Polanco under contract for next year but no way is he worth $15M a year.
A 1/18 is more team friendly then guaranteeing a mid range SP entering his 30’s 45 million dollars. That shouldn’t even be up for debate. Unless you think Odorizzi has some sort of second gear that he hasn’t showed in 6 seasons of pitching.
I “take it” as you don’t have a clue what you’re talking about and refuse to admit you’re obviously wrong because your ego just can’t handle it.
If the past is any indicator for how this will play out for Odorizzi, he should accept the offer and play out the year and hit free agency next season. No team will sign him with the offer attached giving up a draft pick. This will go down just like Kuechel last season. Teams want him bit value the draft pick too much.
If offered he 100% should accept. No question there. Unless he truly does not believe in himself and wants a lance Lynn type of deal because I believe that’s his market with a QO attached.
I think he gets it…
If I’m the Twins FO, I’d take 30 starts of 3.85 ERA ball at $18MM without a doubt. That’s pretty much the going rate these days. At best, he’s a great #2 to Berrios and at worst he’s an innings eater who you can flip at the deadline. Either way, that price point is not outrageous in this day and age.
30 starts 159 innings.
That’s not an innings eater by any definition. He averages a shade over 5 innings a start. It’s not an outlier either. The year before he started 32 games and tossed 164 innings. Odo has never been a #2. No pitcher who averages 5 innings an outing is a #2 starter.
I mean, look how the game is shifting. The Brewers and Yankees both built rotations around their bullpen, rather than the opposite, which is conventional wisdom. Maybe the Twins decide to pursue that route this off-season, especially with so much uncertainty in the rotation. In that case, 5 innings of 4.00 ERA pitching is exactly what you need before you hand it off to the ‘pen. I’m sure the Brewers would love to have a guy like that should the Twins pass.
I’m not saying Odorizzi can’t be useful. It just does not make him a #2. Even a lower end #2 is a guy like Wheeler who does essentially what Odorizzi does but he consistently does it for 6-7 innings a start.
Completely agree actually, except for the idea that Wheeler is a “low end #2.” Wheeler has a much higher ceiling, and he’s been pitching behind deGrom and Thor his entire career. His peripherals have looked REALLY good, and while I think he’s still a #2, he’s a damn solid one with ace capabilities.
I think wheeler has the upside to be a very high end #2 or even in that #1 territory. Don’t get me wrong. To this point he’s been roughly a mid-back half #2 starter though. Even at the deadline this year he was a high 3.95 FIP guy with a 4.4 ERA I believe. He hasn’t shown the high end 2 or #1 territory consistency yet. I certainly agree that a guy with his high octane stuff could certainly get there though.
He won’t be worth the money should he accept it. I’d say no in this case due to the depth of pitching options on the open market this year. You have guys like Keuchel, Wood, Miley, Hamels, Roark etc. That’s just too much depth that I feel is highly comparable or better than odorizzi. He doesn’t pitch deep into ballgames and I don’t believe in this success continuing.
The Twins have at least 3 slots they need to fill in free agency or via resigning their own guys so for that reason I’m sure they’re considering it. But given their payroll flexibility and the numerous candidates available, I would not.
Get another Uber driver
Would think that the Twins almost have to give him the QO. He could make around 12-14M on a multi year deal if he declines but with the market the way it has been the past few years you never know and at worst they get the draft pick. But with amount of starters they have hitting free agency I’m sure the twins wouldn’t be upset about filling one of the potential spots at 18M for the year. No offense to Dobnak but it tells you a lot about the depth when your best option for game 2 of the ALDS that was in the independent leagues last year. And I know that the Twins have a few promising starters in the minors from what I have seen but you don’t want to have to rely on them being ready too early.
Ah the Bomba squad. Smh the indians at least wouldve put up a fight vs. the yankees
Possibly, but the Indians barely put up a fight against the Twins so it’s doubtful. Wasn’t it only one day in first for them? Was something like that.