The Red Sox’s payroll has already emerged as one of the top stories to monitor in the upcoming offseason. With Boston’s “goal” of dropping their competitive balance tax number for 2020 south of the $208MM threshold, some difficult decisions are surely looming. After all, the Sox already have north of $150MM on the luxury tax ledger next season, per Spotrac, not counting arbitration-eligible players. (If J.D. Martinez were to opt-out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his deal, that would knock $22MM off the Sox’s tax ledger but potentially cost the team their best hitter).
On top of that, Boston’s upcoming arbitration class is massive, with twelve players projected to earn upwards of $70MM. A few (Chris Owings, Gorkys Hernández, Steven Wright) are easy non-tenders, which will knock the projected arbitration earnings down $5-6MM. Still, it’s clear that the math doesn’t position the Red Sox to reset their tax number especially easily. The team’s yet to be determined long-term baseball operations head will have some challenges to overcome.
To that end, Christopher Smith of Mass Live hears that the current front office is already discussing potential non-tenders which could ameliorate payroll concerns. While Jackie Bradley, Jr. (projected $11MM salary) may stand out as a speculative non-tender candidate, Smith opines it’s more likely than not the Sox will indeed tender the 29 year-old a contract. (Catcher Sandy León, Smith hears, is in bigger jeopardy of losing his job after another abysmal offensive showing.)
2019 was a disappointing one for Bradley, although he did rebound from a nightmarish April to post a pretty typical .225/.317/.421 line (90 wRC+). That marked the third straight season of below-average offensive production for Bradley, making his strong 2016 season look like an aberration. Of course, Bradley’s selling point has long been his outstanding glovework in center field, and that remains a strong suit, even if he’s not quite the defender he was at his peak. While DRS and UZR each considered him to be an average center fielder this season, Statcast was still enamored of his work, crediting him with six outs above average. That’s a far cry from the 15 and 12 outs above average Bradley was worth in 2017 and 2018, respectively, but he still remains an asset in the grass.
While Bradley’s absolutely still a major league caliber player, that estimated $11MM price tag is not insignificant for an organization looking to shed payroll. Indeed, Smith notes it’s likely the Red Sox would shop Bradley if they do follow through with an arbitration offer. The upcoming free agent market for center fielders is woeful, but Bradley would likely take a backseat in trade talks to Starling Marté, whom the Pirates should market this winter. Marté, while two years older than Bradley, has been the more productive of the two each of the past two seasons and comes with one additional year of team control.
Entirely speculatively, the Cubs, White Sox, Rangers and Phillies, among others, stand out as teams looking to contend in 2020 who have uncertainty in center field. Bradley’s price tag and lackluster offensive production mean he won’t return a huge prospect haul if Boston were to pull the trigger on a trade, so any team in baseball could put together an adequate package. With the Red Sox still on the lookout for a permanent voice atop the baseball ops department, it’s impossible to handicap at this point the odds of Bradley going elsewhere, much less pinpointing an exact destination. Nevertheless, it’s at least notable to hear that, as of now, the organization doesn’t seem inclined to let their longtime center fielder depart for nothing more than cash savings.
i dont know if Wright is an easy decision if his contract comes out to about 1.5 million. obviously he wasnt good last year, but he’s been effective when he can stay on the field.
I agree on Wright, he was great until he got hurt as a baserunner because Cora didn’t have enough position players on the bench (another reason why bloated bullpens are foolish).
As for JBJ, the Sox were extremely foolish to not trade him last winter. His entire career he has been a below-average hitter with occasional hot streaks. Coming off an ALCS MVP and his only career Gold Glove, his value was as high as it would ever get. It was the perfect time to trade him and shift Benny or Mookie into CF. Just another reason why DD is now gone.
They fell in love with his glove but you’re right all around he had to go and it’s exactly things like this that forced DD’s firing. He doesn’t trade for prospects at all really. These days you have to be open to everything with what players make. Now the Saux might lose a five tool player because of horrible decisions made by an inept front office. I love it, there’s nothing I enjoy more than seeing the Red Sox flounder around. Mookie would look amazing in pinnies I know that.
You don’t trade a gold glove center fielder off of World Series championship team. You run it back as best you can hoping guys will be motivated enough to pay the price again.
You trade Jackie Bradley jr. this winter. No big deal the extra year. They gave it a shot, they flopped now trade Jackie. I don’t think they’ll get a lot less now than they would have last winter. He was a crappy hitter before he’s a crappy hitter now.
It was Farrell who put Wright in to run the bases
Thanks, you’re absolutely right on Wright. I guess it just seems like Cora has been around for more than a year. LOL
i agree on wright. i think he’s the type of low cost/high upside arm u need when u have a staff full of injury concerns,are looking to trim payroll but stay competitive, and dont have any high upside arms to potentially call on in the farm
The White Sox absolutely do NOT have uncertainty in CF.
But they do in right. Plus, you’re assuming that Lou Bob will start in CF.
Lou Bob does stsrt in center and the need a lefty in rf that can spell occasional JD Martinez play who seems to be the talk. Engel and Garcia will be the backup defensive.
Obviously, Robert’s on the doorstep, but Bradley would be a short-term solution and Robert should have more than enough offensive juice to handle right field. As John noted, they can/should upgrade at two OF positions, so I think it’s plausible Bradley could be a target, even if they’re not the most likely potential landing spot.
If they only want a defensive OF they have Engel. I don’t see it as an upgrade.
I could see the Phillies getting Bradley
unless Boston’s paying all his contract, Klentak will not and should not make such a move if it involves anyone besides a fringe prospect.
Obviously Boston is not paying all of the contract as they would simply non-tender unless a great return is coming back. Sun has is unlikely to happen and they probably will have to eat 30 – 50% back in any deal.
You’re not getting a great return for a guy that’s a potential non-tender. Doesn’t make any sense to pay heavy prospects for a guy that could potentially just be a free agent.
Even if the Red Sox DID eat the entire contract they still wouldnt get a massive hall for him. All he is is a defensive substitute, especially for condending teams.
What are you guys talking about of course they’re not getting a massive haul for Jackie Bradley jr., LOL. They’re looking to shed the 11 million dollar salary for a non hitter, and hopefully get a young guy back with potential. That’s it. If Bradley was any good they keep him. You guys are funny.
There are five posts in the this particular stem of the conversation amd only one said something about the Red Sox actually getting a good return for Bradley. So what do you mean “you guys”?
Also, you want to clarify what “young guy with potential” is because I think any team may want to keep that for a defensive substitute.
This whole thread is about the return back for Jackie Bradley jr. It’s funny to me that anyone would think they’re getting anything of value aside from a young guy with potential. They’re not getting anything more than that in fact they just want to get rid of his salary so they’ll probably non-tender the guy is my guess. If they do tender Jackie it will be because someone will offer a young guy. Other posters are talking about getting more than that and I think that’s absurd.
Sorry I don’t have a handy definition for you on “young guy with potential.” It’s just a young guy with potential. That’s all I have for you.
Then you should get a thesaurus because for a JBJ return I would use a term like “fringe prospect that has the cieling of an okay bench bat.”
Sometimes even a fringe bat becomes an important piece on a winning club. For example, see Brock Holt. No one expected him to blossom like the versatile bench player he is now. Changed that trade with the Pirates into at least a win-win when the beginning years it looked like a loser.
Oh yeah I think you’re definition sounds a lot better than mine. That’s probably all they could hope to expect back. Very good.
Why does the article say he has 2 years remaining. He is free after next year.
Ah yeah, my mistake. Thanks for the heads up!
Feels like the past 3 years or so they have been exploring to trade JBJ
Yes and then they won the World Series with him patrolling center field. That lineup worked with him in it, especially since the starters did their job on the pitching staff. Didn’t happen this year so the lineup needs to be changed somehow.
Also remember those few but huge hits in the AL Championship against Houston. JBJ has also on rare occasion gone on a stretch and carried the offense.
Yes !!
Bradley jr for blake treinen, tendered salaries would be about equal.
But the Red Sox want to save money…..
i dont buy the A’s giving up on Treinen yet, contract or not. the upside is just too great, and we all know that he’s proved already that he can do it. clearly 2018 wasnt sustainable, but he has the ability to be a superstar reliever, and those certainly arent a dime in a dozen.
A’s don’t need OF they have Canha, Luareano, Piscotty, Smith and grossman
Who’s Smith?
That saves the Red Sox money how exactly?
Sometimes reading the article is hard…
What a mess the Red Sox are. An absolute mess! Their situation, in this division right now, seems brutal for the years ahead. They obviously don’t seem like rebuild material (yet) but they have serious reconfigurations staring them down.
Their fans would absolutely scream
at a rebuild…..
You sound like a Yankee fan, am I right?
There is no reason for a big market team to ever rebuild, they just simply reload.
Especially a team like Boston that already has a ton of young talent on the roster. Look at the combined ages of Vazquez, Xander, Devers, Evo, Chavis, Benny, ERod, etc. It was basically the same team that won 108 games and a championship last year. Mismanagement and injuries to the pitching staff is the only reason they didn’t make the postseason this year.
You rebuild a team when it has several deficiencies, Red Sox don’t fall into that category. They were among the best offenses in MLB.
Fever, such is mostly true but when the team for 18’ was created, everyone knew 2020 was going to be a reset the tax year. The problem is the team and its’ fans expected to compete for another championship this year.
Then why the need to sign Sale when they did? also, Eovaldi money… Those two certainly handcuffed the Red Sox
In order to keep this team together, they would have to run out there with a $250M+ payroll, which they already said they weren’t going to do. Even if they did that, they would lose their 1st round pick again, and they already have the worst minor league system around. There is no help on the way. Their only top 100 prospect was in single A. Their only tier 2 prospect struggled in AA..
If they don’t rebuild, and try and keep payroll down, they have to let JD and Cashner walk, and replace them with no one. Then it wont be the same team that won last year.
Dwight when you say everyone knew 2020 would be a payroll drop below the first penalization level, are you including DD? If so, after Price decided to not opt-out last winter, why did DD give Sale the huge extension? It makes no sense to have over $60M of the 2020 payroll be absorbed by just two starting pitchers, both of whom have had several recent health issues, if they had planned to get under the $208M threshold.
That is why I tend to agree with those who believe Henry’s motivation for next year’s payroll drop was the feeling that he got burned by having the highest-paid team in MLB miss the playoffs. If the Sox had been successful this season, and corresponding revenue hadn’t dropped, $208M wouldn’t be a priority next season. Henry is okay spending big, as long as the money is well spent and the revenue stays up there. First and foremost, he’s a businessman.
I was fine with the Evo signing and still am, there’s a reason he was the most sought-after free agent at the time. He was given less than half what Sale was given, and was deemed 100% healthy last winter.
I’d be happy going into next season with a rotation of Price, ERod, Evo and acquiring two other guys for a combined $15-$20M.
Maybe that’s one of the reasons DD is gone.
How were you ok with the Evo signing? That was as dumb as the Sale signing! Evo has a history of injuries and a career ERA of 4.00. He got hot at the right time and helped us win, but you overpay for a couple good months. This is the same thing the Dodgers did with Kelly, as they only seen what he did in the post season and ignored his horrible regular season. DD always signs dumb contracts and straps the team down.
Because when the Sale extension was given, it seemed like a slight discount and may still be with nearly 5m in each of the 5 years it will run deferred not counting towards the salary cap and he was the either best, or top 2 starter in the league for several seasons prior.
No 5y extension, he repeats his dominant style and he blows right past price type numbers. Cole numbers are talking of 200m. What would Sale have gotten had he done a repeat of even 2017, 2018 where he just missed 1-1/2 months? Numbers, other than ERA, which some here make fun at anyway were typical anyway.
I’m still not sad they signed him to the extension when they did. Moves can be made to get around the cap, even if the elbow does need surgery.
DD with ownership blessing chose to reward Eovaldi and Pearce for 2018 which at the time I was also for. Unfortunately, most fans including me don’t analyze the financials for future implications. That said, most of us questioned the Sale extension when it was signed.
Fever. Henry in my view is being disingenuous. Getting burned? 2018 and those dollars from the WS and merchandise more than paid for this year. Remember the last place finishes in 14 and 15 as well as the playoff exits in 16 and 17? I wrote about Sale above. Henry is true political opposite of the President but seems to run a business the same way. Likes credit on wins but passes the buck on losses. I’d rather have a passionate owner who truly loves the sport than one who makes decisions by running a computer program. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve enjoyed the championships but the game itself is not nearly as much fun to watch. He’s not alone to blame of course when I wonder who he’ll blame if next year, NESN ratings suffer like they did when the team last didn’t make the playoffs.
John, given Sale’s history of NEVER ending a season on a strong note, there really wasn’t any discount (in my view). If he was on the market now, he’s probably be looking at a one year deal to prove he was healthy and then he might have signed a further extension. He had more to risk than the team by not signing. just my take. DD with ownership’s approval made a huge mistake. Even if he miraculously becomes healthy, it doesn’t change the fact that the team was facing a huge budget crisis when it was signed.
The “problem” ended when they missed the playoffs this year. Done. Now the real problem begins: Rectifying roster payroll and getting out from under the suffocating dead weight.
Nobody wants the same team as last year. They don’t have a lpt of top tier farm talent bc they graduated so many and traded the rest for a championship. The good thing is what they do have fills the few holes that must be filled. First base covered by Chavis-Travis-Dalbec, second by M Hernandez-Chavis-Chatham and 5th starter by D Hernandez-Houck-Shawaryn-Ward. That doesnt necessarily make you better but a lot cheaper for 3 areas that didnt do much last year that looks like a big dropoff.
Think the Eovaldi contract extension/resign was the bad one and I was as much for it at the time as some Sox fans. I fell for the half season and dominant playoff run he gave and also what had seen in short spurts with Miami earlier in his career and thought maybe it had all came together.
Do think the Sale deal was a good one with Boston over the years having such a time developing front line arms and the cost of him talent wise and what the cost of another could be. Still hoping myself he does not require TJ surgery of course.
Darwinzon is staying as a reliever
He looks like a non tender to me
Yap – no team will pay 11m for a .225 hitter.
Plenty of teams pay 11 mil for players with .225 average… not sure why average matters at all because it doesn’t matter to a single GM in baseball.
Ok, let’s go with “a 90 wRC+ hitter”. Either way, he’s a below average hitter whose elite defensive days are either gone or nearly gone. Not a big chance someone’s taking a $11m hit for that. Maybe. They’d have to get lucky and won’t get anything back. Should just non-tender and I think they will (this is just posturing to see of anyone bites).
BA “doesn’t matter to a single GM in baseball” is obviously false. Maybe you were exaggerating? But it matters to most if not all GMs..Just because it doesn’t carry as much weight as it used to doesn’t mean it doesn’t matter to them.
seamaholic, isn’t that what this article is about? There’s talk of non tendering the guy.
The Red Sox will perform their due diligence and if there’s no apparent takers then he’s done. They’ve got a month and a half to figure it out.
Spinach BA doesn’t not matter to a single GM in the sport and they haven’t cared for at least 5 years now. It’s not even the top 5 offensive stats they would look at. Try listening to GMs talk and let people know when they talk about batting average they won’t but waste your time.
Spinach- Listen to Iverbure since he thinks he knows what he is talking about.
The GM’s also do not care about W/L,ERA,RBI,or Saves.For potential free agents and trade candidates they just care about KOs,W,HR,and how good looking the players wives are.
GM’s love OBP and OPS though….both of which are directly affected by BA. So a GM (if everything else was equal) wouldn’t care if a player hit .225 or .267<–JBJ's career high? If JBJ could consistently hit around .260 there would be a large trade market for him. He's nothing more than a defensive replacement for a contending team or a buy low option for a rebuilding team that hopes he has a big 1st half.
Big-I do not doubt that some of the newest stats are used quite regularly by GM’s as opposed to the traditional ones..I do not have a problem with that and some of them I think are quite useful.But to say that one of the traditional stats is never used by any of the 30 GM’s I think is quite a stretch.Absolute statements like this one are quite often used on this site and I find them amusing to say the least.
Mike Trout is this year’s AL ISOP Champion
Cody Bellinger is this year’s NL Position Player WAR Champion.
And Christian Yelich is this year’s NL Win Probability Added Champion
…. said no one, ever.
Gone or nearly gone? Based on a single season where all of their outfielders took a hit compared to 2018. Are Mookie and Bennie also over the hill in the field? Such nonsense.
Gary. If no one will pay him, he can always resign for less if released.
Agents care. Whatever stat they can favorably manipulate they’ll use. Boras and his books are part of the problem. Too many BS stats that are based on subjective triggers. DSR for example. How can there be competing audits with inconsistent findings if it’s to be taken seriously? A bad year or an undisclosed injury for example could explain a single down season as compared to those stating JBJ’s glove is on the decline.
Maybeeeee the angels give a call…
if the Red Sox’s pay part of the 11Mm this could be a cheap option for helping adding bodies to the platoon outfield in right and add some depth behind Trout for off days.
Trout?
Days off ? What 5
Sounds like speculation on a trade with the Angels.
Nah. The Angels will decline Calhoun’s option to free up money desperately needed for pitching.
Goodwin can give Trout an occasional day off.
Why trade for Bradley when we simply can exercise Calhoun’s option. Kole is excellent defensively too, and actually can hit, albeit very streaky. However, I don’t see the need for Calhoun anymore either. Trout, Goodwin, and Unfortunately Upton are locks. Jo Adell will be getting the call within the first 2 months of the season if not opening day. And he will definitely be getting a lot of playing time. I don’t see the need for any extra OF’s unless we are talking about a versatile 4th OF that can play a little IF too.
The Phillies do not need a center fielder. Scott Kingery is excellent there and the Phillies still have Odubel’s contract.
Odubel has played his last inning in Philly. Even if the trade is 20 cents on the dollar, he’s gone. Kingery is passable there as is Haseley, but Kingery’s home is 2B when Cesar moves on.
Haseley is the CF at this point in time. im not ready to say that Odubel will be back or that Kingery will be given a starting job outright after that second half.
Almora for Bradley
Gross.
Terrible trade for Boston
AA is 4 years younger than JBJ, a lot cheaper (which the Red Sox are going for), and an excellent defensive CF.
Who knows. Maybe a change of scenery trade is what these guys need.
It isn’t the worst idea in the world. JBJ isn’t going to net you a team’s top prospects. Especially if Boston is really trying to move him.
Neither side is doing that trade. Neither guy can hit, Almora forgot how to play defense in 2019, and the Cubs wouldn’t take on ~$9-10 million (the difference in salaries) for the defensive upgrade, especially when they’re in a similar place to Boston trying to figure out where to scrape up cash for upgrades.
You’d be trading the same player for each other
I wouldn’t mind a JBJ/Puig platoon in RF for the White Sox.
That would mean Reinsdorf would have to spend …….money. That’s a deal breaker.
LOL Dogbone!
That said, we also know JR doesn’t spend stupid money like some of his peers when does throw a few nickels around. Spending on both Puig (which I endorse) and JBJ to play the same position in 2020 would be pure stupidity.
Mets for Dom Smith. Probably paid down a bit. Not necessarily the best trade for Mets but hey it’s Brody.
Bradley can’t hit and is making 11M a year and you think giving up a young, cheap player for an aging defensive OFer is a good idea. Yikes. More likely the Mets try to flip Smith for young controllable pitching.
Aging? He had a down year in the field after winning awards for his CF one year earlier and he’s getting old.
Mets already have a great defensively OF that can’t hit, in Lagares. And with Nimmo and Conforto being left handed hitters, I doubt they’d want to add another one unless it’s an upgrade over Nimmo or Conforto.
If they want to trade him and save money, it will most likely be for a relief pitcher with average results at best.
The Red Sox have tried that in recent years with zero success. Seems like every guy they’ve traded for and placed in the bullpen has gotten hurt and never pitches. Going back to that guy from Pittsburgh with the long name I don’t think he pitched more than twice LOL.
More than likely, the Red Sox trim payroll, get rid of a couple guys, trade Mookie and run it back with the same bullpen in a reset year of tax placement. Then see who they have and give it another championship run in 2021. Perhaps they can deal one of these starters at the deadline to a team that will take a chance and is in contention and a starter away.?
I could see the Cardinals engaging in a Harry Bader swap. Not straight up, but something that involves those 2.
Unless the Red Sox throw in a lot more, I don’t see that happening. Bader is faster, a better defender, and younger than JBJ, plus has more upside with his bat.
JBJ–>to the Giants
Knowing Farhan, he’d probably non-tender Pillar and go after this guy…
knowing Farhan he’ll non-tender pillar and get a better player on waivers.
The White Sox have no interest or need in Bradley. The Sox need a TOR starter, a RF with power, and a DH with power, preferably a LH bat. Bradley doesn’t fill any of those needs. I don’t understand these articles lately.
They could it to improve the d. I think Adam Engel is great in center but I think JBJ is better defensively and that would help with Eloy in left and Robert in right. And a change of scenery could improve his game.
They won’t get much in trade for Bradley JR. $11 mil for a .200 hitter?
.225 – .245 and 20+ homeruns, and a Superior center fielder who covers a lot of ground in Fenway. That triangle out there as tricky. Put him in a standard Outfield and he’ll be fantastic. You can’t just label him as a 220 hitter without telling the whole story.
.190 on the road. Batting average doesnt mean everything, but it sure does mean something.
Well put Melchez.Traditional stats are still very important but they are just not the only ones anymore.Many of the newer ones can be just as important.They add to the ways that a player can be evaluated.
I think that any one that is based on the entirety of actual numbers clearly is important in evaluating a player.
I do not know much about JBJ but it seems that many posters just want to non tender him.It seems here that there is a disconnect on the amount that the arbitrator would award him and what he is worth.In other words,would the BoSox keep him if his salary was $8M?
Coming from a White Sox fan, this is a pretty tough call.
We liked Jackie Bradley a lot a few years ago, but he’s struggling at the plate. But he’s got a ring, and Robert to RF. I’m still rooting for Puig but this is an interesting alternative for sure.
Arizona could make sense here for a couple reasons.
1. GM Hazen was Boston’s scouting VP when JBJ was drafted.
2. AZ could move Ketel Marte back to 2B, which could help accomplish the goal of keeping him healthier in 2020.
3. Their payroll is pretty clear with Goldy and Greinke off the books. Yasmany Tomas is now their highest paid player (ouch). They can afford to pay most, if not all, of JBJ’s salary in order to reduce prospect cost (an important factor for a team that doesn’t want to eat into their farm depth right now).
4. If it doesn’t work out, there’s no long-term commitment. If it does, I’m sure JBJ. would have some interest in signing an extension with the club that he had a career renaissance with.
Good post, but I think unless a team steps up to give the Red Sox something of value, they’ll just let him walk and avoid the hassle of his 11 million dollar contract and paying part of it and if they don’t pay part of it then they won’t get anything back, and stuff like that. Just non-tender him and avoid all that.
But I think somebody will give up a young guy and take an 11 million dollar center fielder in this age of 15 million-dollar+ contracts.
No
If the reds sign Yasmani Grandal as a free agent maybe Tucker barnhart to Boston for Jackie Bradley jr. Reds get a center fielder and move Nick Senzel to 2nd base. Red Sox save 7 million dollar salary and has Barnhart for 2 years
Yeah don’t see a trade… no one wants a .220 hitter for that price…. cut him lose. Got to say love his D thou, wish him the best!
Wtf is with all these people talking about BA is this 2005 again?
Iverbure-If it is so unimportant why is there still a batting championship awarded for the highest batting avareage?Why does the HOF still refer to it?
It is still an important stat no matter whether you think so or not.
It is because we know baseball and not just some newly calculated numbers that may or may not have real relevance.
There is room for the traditional stats and the newly used ones that are relevant.They all add to the overall knowledge of the history of the player’s career.
Whether you realize it or not.
A hard no to the White Sox acquiring Jackie Bradley, Jr. in a trade with the Red Sox this offseason. Why trade for a player with declining offensive and defensive skills who will be 30 in April and comes with one more season of a projected $11MM arbitration salary assuming Boston tenders him by the December 2nd contract deadline? This would smack of a Kenny Williams move but fortunately Rick Hahn is now the GM who handles most of the roster building. Hahn is too smart to trade assets for JBR and would only consider him as a cheaper non-tender free agent this offseason.
The White Sox could use a left-handed hitter this offseason to balance out a batting order that leans right-handed. That player will most likely be their new right fielder but could also be a center fielder with stud prospect Luis Robert profiling well at either position. JBR does offer the lefty bat but not the kind the White Sox need. They don’t need a lefty with a .236/.317/.409 MLB slash line who peaked with his offense three seasons ago while also striking out a career high 155 times in 147 games this past season. They need one who makes better contact, comes with high OBP skills and a potential to achieve solid SLG number.
If the White Sox go the trade route this offseason they might look to the Dodgers and target a future core bat like Alex Verdugo who also has Gold Glove potential in RF or CF, similar to what Robert might also achieve starting in 2020. If the cost for Verdugo is too prohibitive in terms of talent they might consider FA Yasiel Puig this offseason to play RF. He doesn’t give them the desired lefty bat but would check most of the other offensive and defensive boxes and only cost them cash since he can’t be tagged with a QO. Puig has had some clubhouse issues in the past but those were mostly a few years ago in LA and he figures to be on his best behavior with the White Sox playing with with ‘big brother’ influence Jose Abreu along with two other star Cubans in Yoan Moncada and Robert.
Dodgers aren’t trading Verdugo. Joc is more realistic.
Reports suggest that a Joc Pederson trade was all but a done deal last offseason before Dodgers President Andrew Friedman changed his mind at the last minute. Pederson only had two more years of arbitration eligibility remaining last offseason and now only has one left heading into the 2020 season.
I would not be opposed to Pederson in the White Sox outfield going forward but the team would need to have a reasonable expectation that they could extend him before agreeing to sacrifice assets in a trade. Verdugo would cost more in young capital but would also provide 5 years of control which would line up very well with some of the other young players on the White Sox active roster.
Clearly the White Sox are not trading perceived core players like Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal for Verdugo. Friedman is not dumb enough to accept a collection of lesser talent from White Sox GM Rick Hahn but perhaps a deal centering on Verdugo for top 1B prospect Andrew Vaughn would make sense for both teams. I know I would consider it from the perspective of a White Sox fan.
With all due respect, I think you need to give up on the Verdugo idea. There is zero doubt Verdugo is entrenched in the CF/RF mix. I just can’t fathom how you think a team in a contending window is going to trade a cheap cost controlled player who showed to be a plus cf-of defender/plus bat to kick the can down the road. The reason why the Soxs would turn their nose at the asking price is the same reason the Dodgers would turn their nose at that offer. Especially after the ending of this season where they are in win now mode with little to no room for offensive prospects. The development system also has no issues spitting out corner bats, which they don’t inherently value to the same degree, but there’s a clear hole in the pipeline at CF. So if you were to mention Beaty, Rios, Peters, or churning of players who aren’t in their future plans yeah I can see it if it can help their big league team, but the simple fact is there isn’t a match. Don’t get me wrong Vaughn will probably be a tremendous hitter, but skill set Verdugo provides, especially in taking some off Bellinger’s legs, you don’t trade that unless it significantly upgrades you now and for a long time.
We’ll see soon enough. Rick Hahn has continued to emphasize the White Sox will target young controllable players this offseason in trades while also being more forthright in the free agent market. With a clear team need for a solid left-handed hitter along with an opening in RF that points to a player like Verdugo via the trade route. He should kick the tires on Verdugo, perhaps discuss Joc Pederson once again and then move on to other potential options elsewhere.
If trade talks stall, Hahn may then pursue a FA option like Yasiel Puig who would check many of the same boxes on offense and defense as a right-handed hitting right fielder. There aren’t any pending left-handed hitting FA’s who profile better than Puig in RF this offseason. Corey Dickerson is strictly a left-fielder where the White Sox are set with Eloy Jimenez. Cole Calhoun doesn’t provide the bat Chicago looking for and his defense has also slipped since his 2015 Gold Glove which would be expected from a player who turns 32 this month.
Really getting a kick out of fans of teams who are absolutely pathetic chiming in on this topic. Also, you all come up with scenarios of what your team needs you’re forgetting one very important factor most guys with the talents of what your team needs would not go to that team even if a gun was put at their head.
Brilliant assessment. Now get back to your day job, those floors won’t mop themselves.
You and Dogbone are really giving me a good laugh on an NFL Sunday with no Bears game this week. I am looking forward to the Yankees-Astros game tonight, more so than the Steelers-Chargers contest.
Baseball has and always will be my game despite MLB’s best efforts in allowing the NFL to become America’s National Pastime during my soon to be 65-year old lifetime.
Hang in the brother.
youtu.be/L9SI6_MFGgE
Thanks bro, I needed that more than a laugh…and the NFL!
Cubs make no sense for Bradley, Almora is the same player, great fielding/light hitting CF
Yes. Jackie Bradley, JR. does appear to be the lefty hitting version of Albert Almora in so many respects, only more expensive and 4 years older. Clearly JBR has accomplished some things that Almora hasn’t to this point of his career including being a regular in CF, getting an All-Star selection, winning a Gold Glove, hitting 20+ HR’s a couple of times and stealing more bases. Otherwise they possess similar metrics with each trending downward.
Of course, the most concerning point for Cubs fans is Theo’s connection and history with JBR in Boston. He has already acquired a few of his former Red Sox players for the Cubs so it would shock no one if he were to add Bradley Jr. to the list this offseason. If he does, hopefully it will be as a cheap non-tender FA later in December and not via the trade route. Perhaps with Joe Maddon gone, Almora might actually develop into the player the Cubs thought they were getting. JBR might also be a player who could use a change of scenery to re-kindle a once more promising career. I doubt either will happen with the Cubs but you never know.
“JBJ”. My senility is beginning to show with some of my posts lately. LOR (lol!)
JD Martinez decision is probably going help decide this issue. JBJ strikes out far too often. Trading Mookie and/or JDM is a necessary evil. The Red Sox can’t compete with the Yankees next year. Budget is just too tight+no decent proscepts. Wild Card is possible. David Dombomski won them a World Series, but at a steep cost. JBJ needs to learn how to bunt. It would his average to more successful level.
The Red Sox missed their chance to trade Bradley for a good return. Now I can’t see contending teams giving up more than a fringe prospect even if the Red Sox DID pay down the entire salary. No matter how much or little you pay him, all he is is a defensive substitute or maybe a pinch runner on contending teams.
If rebuilding teams like the Tigers or Royals need someone in the OF to fill the gap between now and when a young talent comes up I can see that but as they are attempting to build talent for the future, I can’t see them giving up much either. Why not just grab an OF from the scrap heap of non-tenders and not pay any talent at all? How much better is Bradley than them anyway?
Red Sox didn’t miss any chance to trade Jackie. He was a crummy hitter five years ago and three years ago as well. He’s always been a crummy hitter. And you don’t trade your center fielder off of World Series winning team when you’re running it back and signing Pearce and Sandy Leon and Moreland. You’re attempting to do it again with the same Squad. Red Sox missed no chance earlier. The return or no return they get now is what they would have gotten last year. The guy hits 190 for 4 months and then he’ll hit 280 for 2 months. Very streaky.
Always a crumby hitter? Did you take a baseball hiatus in 2015 AND 2016?
So the chances to trade him was:
2015: He had a good season with 255 PA.
2016: a FULL season this year with an OPS of 835
2017: Another a down year for him. This. Is when a good job of analyzing helps. Do you expect a bounce back and keep him or trade him because you think his 1 and a half seasons of good play is an aboration. And this was BEFORE a world series title.
So the Red Sox made their choice and they were wrong.
Additionally, yes, you do trade away your CF on a championship team when they arent just the weak link on your team but even less than league average.
2013 World Champions let their star CF’er go to their arch-rivals right after that season and it had been the 2nd-best year of his career, too.
Nobody is saying it was a mistake to let him go.
There may have been a couple seasons were his final average was 250 or 260. But let me tell you as a die-hard Red Sox fan even in those Seasons there were months when he scratched along at 190 but then he would get red hot and hit 350 for 2 months. Ask any Red Sox fan who’s watched it’s not about final numbers sometimes. He’s been streaky and he’s always been a crummy hitter that you can’t count on day in and day out to be consistent.
It’s very simple the Red Sox will go as far as there starting pitching takes the next year.
If there is a repeat of this year from there expensive starters they will finish third or fourth in the division. If they come back strong they can win the division.
If JDM opts out the offense is going to take a step back but they will still be solid.
All of this years issues can be traced back to the starters they will have to be better next year. I’m not saying they will be just saying they have to be. Sale, Price, and Eovaldi health will go a long way to a rebound year for Boston.
You’re exactly right… but I think what we saw this year from the starting pitching is what we will continue to see. Next year is a reset and reduce some salary to get below the tax line. They’ll trade a few guys including mookie, and hopefully dump an expensive starter at the deadline to a contending team that thinks they’re one guy away. Then we go for it again in 2021. At least that’s my opinion. But I like your post.
Any chance you would agree with me that the botched Spring Training put the starters behind the 8 ball? Cora screwed up and yet the media never went after him like they would most managers. His wrong approach to Spring Training impacted the starters which in turn impacted the relievers. It’s unfortunate that we can’t turn back the clock and see how much better our starters would have been with a proper Spring Training. We know our relievers weren’t terribly experienced but they too weren’t prepared for being over worked in March and April.
Sale had a bad year after Cora and the pitching coaches chose to tinker with his mechanics and arm angle. A significant change like that probably should be started long before Spring Training but that didn’t happen so once again a bad decision by the manager and pitching coach turned a top 5 starting pitcher into an embarrassment (in his words).
What I can’t understand is why do people believe Cora wasn’t to blame for the bad start we had. DD got fired but Cora caused the problem. He messed with the batting order and it didn’t work. He fixed the batting order in late April but then got another brilliant idea and changed it again after we went 18-4. He has no idea what he is doing. He is learning on the job and he is costing us wins just like in 2018 when we were incredible. Performances average out for players but not managers. He’s failed two years in a row at the fundamentals of managing; setting the line-up, making pitching changes and even resting his players. He is out of his element and the sooner we find an experienced manager the better the team will be.
We have a handful of guys we need to cut including Porcello, Pearce, JBJ, Leon, Johnson, Velasquez and possibly Moreland. With money freeing up on bad contracts plus losing these players we can fill out our team with a real closer and a 5th starter that costs at least $11M per year less than Porcello. As long as we have our core hitters of Vasquez, Devers, Bogaerts, Chavis, Dalbec, Benny, Betts and JD we’ll be fine with some minor tweaking. We need to stop tinkering with Sale and let him pitch the way he is comfortable pitching. We need Price and Eovaldi healthy and we need E-ROD to not regress. Our relief core got allot of experience last year and improved significantly throughout the season. We have Hernandez and Tayler as lefty set-up men. We have Barnes and Workman as righty set-up men and we have Walden and Weber in long relief. If we add a closer and a starter we’ll be just fine.
Hopefully Devers will start quickly and be very enthusiastic like parts of 2018. The team is missing a spark plug and he seems like the best candidate of the regulars. Hanging on to Holt will help team chemistry too.
Bottom line, we need an outside GM who knows analytics and baseball, has experience in running a successful organization and is willing to bring his own staff to Boston starting with a new experienced Manager, an experienced coaching staff and a state of the art analytics team. We can’t get that by staying stagnant and using our four headed monster.
Many fans have called for house cleaning of the players. I have very few issues with the players I want the executive level replaced with experienced winners. No more bench coaches who get their first chance to manage with a $200M+ payroll. We need a Girardi or if we are going to go inexperienced I’d feel better with Varitek because of his presence, attitude and knowledge of pitching. He would blow away Cora as a manager. If everyone likes Cora, keep him as the bench coach. At least he has experience at that!! Let’s fix the team from the top down beginning with the Operations executives.
You cover a lot of subjects above but for many items I say you are absolutely correct. Especially the spring-training Fiasco with the starters.
I do like Alex Cora though. I mean, who else are you going to get? Baseball keeps rotating managers in and out in and out. Who’s out there that’s the incredible difference-maker? A guy learns from his mistakes and becomes a seasoned veteran who knows what he’s doing.
Hey KD I do agree that the Spring Training debacle was done poorly and was a problem for the Sox.
I too like Cora and think he relates well with his players and they respect him.
I also appreciate your passion for the Red Sox KD and we only had one major disagreement and that was over Devers.
I also believe the Red Sox don’t need a complete tear down just a little tweaking. We all know it’s the starters who are going to be the difference. A healthy year from Sale, Price, and Evo will go along way. Erod will also need to continue to mature into that tor arm.
Bruin1012, Since August I’ve been accessing the MLB Team Payroll Tracker to see how much better things will be in 2020 and I was shocked at two things; 1 – How many excellent players make less than $10M a year and 2 – How many of our players are under control for several more years.
How does anyone come to the conclusion we need to rebuild when a major portion of our roster is 27 or younger. You start your prime years at 27 and I read that people want a rebuild. It’s absolutely crazy!! Other than Price and JD, none of our core players are at an age that suggests their prime years are almost over.
When I look at JBJ and see $10M and look at Laureano for Oakland I scratch my head as to why people don’t think JBJ is replaceable. There are lots and lots of players who are pre-arb or early arb that are good enough to have a spot in our outfield ahead of JBJ. We don’t need a stud defensive outfielder but if the player is above average and can hit he’s a better choice. If he makes less than $1M, he’s 10 times as good a choice and for years to come.
The tough contracts where we probably are paying more than the value of the player for 2020 will be Price at $32M, Pedroia at $13.125M, $5M for Sandoval and $2M for Manny. These are bad contracts. I think Sale’s $25.7M is fair if Cora stops tinkering with his wind-up and Mechanics. We need him to pitch like in Chicago. Hair on fire and if he gets dead arm for a few starts after the all-star break, that’s better than being on and off the DL like he’s been since Cora took over for Farrell. I also think Eovaldi’s $17M will turn out to be a good contract if he stays healthy. Bogey’s making big bucks but is worth it, same for Betts and JD. I would like for Cora to figure out JD should bat 3 to get our money’s worth for his contract. Plus our winning percentage is roughly 17 percent higher when he hits 3rd. So if you don’t think JD is earning his money, blame Cora for not batting him 3rd!!
I loved Hernandez and Taylor in 2019 and they are two inexpensive top quality arms. I would trade both Barnes and Workman to a team that has more electric arms with great change-ups or sliders. All the ball bouncing late in the game makes me nervous so we need to move towards relievers with better accuracy and good stuff. I’m curious to see which closer we might go after. Yates started out great but faded as the season progressed. Hopefully that might lessen his price.
I just hope our GM/Head of Baseball Operations is hired by Halloween. I also hope they bring in a whole new analytics team We really struggled preparing our pitchers for each series. Either someone was reading the data wrong or the data was being ignored and rules of thumb were being used. We called too many pitches of a certain type at a certain location that got crushed by our opponent. Bad info leads to bad results.
If Cora insists that Sale use the mechanics his pitching coach is defining then I sure hope Sale gets many months not days to work on it prior to the new season. Just another error in judgement by Cora, the pitching coach or both as to how to work with Sale.
Washington dominated the National League Playoffs with stud pitching and we have 4 guys who can do the same if healthy, given proper time to work on their pitches in Spring Training and good data from the analytics team Good pitching with our hitting means lots of wins.
Good post KD agree with a lot of it- except that you make it sound so easy to replace Jackie. I’m sure fans/management would love to see a low cost pre arb player ready to fill in for JBJ… but issue for Sox is they would need to trade for that because they don’t have a guy ready to fit that role (Duran MAY be able to fill in in 2021).
And sure, they can just trade for someone… but a guy who is pre arb but ready to step in and be good starting CF next Aprilis going to cost something decent in return.
Maybe but the depth of some of these teams like the Dodgers is over-whelming! Their 6th OF is per-arb, fields well and hits much better than JBJ. Maybe they could use a specialty item that we don’t need but plan on keeping like Dalbec. Swapping depth at 1B for OF where they have more depth than they need might make sense. I like Andrew Toles and would be willing to trade him for Dalbec, especially with our true 1B of the future getting closer to being ready. We could probably leave Mookie in right field if we got Toles. The depth chart for the LA OF includes Bellinger, Pederson, Pollack, Verdugo, E. Hernandez and Toles. In addition they have 3 more prospects in the minors waiting for a chance to play outfield. At 1B they have Muncy, Freese and Edwin Rios. Dalbec fits their launch angle philosophy. I don’t believe it’s an unreasonable trade offer to LA to help them balance their depth and give us an inexpensive replacement for JBJ who will hit significantly better and be more than adequate as a defender. Will he be a step down defensively? Yes. Will it be a big step down? No. Heck, we play Devers at 3B where so many more balls are hit and we keep him in the line-up for his bat. This would be a far better situation than Devers!
JBJ gets non tendered. He’s not worth $11M and no one will trade for him with an arb contract like that.
You could very well be correct on that.
One question, is Jackie guaranteed a raise? He’ll definitely go from 9 million to 11 million this winter? Why not keep him at 9 million? He didn’t do anything to Warrant a raise did he?
It’s in the hands of arbitration. All the Red Sox can do is either pay Jackie Bradley jr. what the arbitration panel decides or they can non-tender him.
I understand that part so generally they give raises as a guy has more tenure? He really didn’t do anything on the field to Warrant a raise.
yes generally you are correct
And that is something that should be changed since if his last year salary was $7.5 M it should stay there if his year did not deserve a raise.
Those annual salaries should be determined by the average of the sum total of the performances and should not get an automatic increase.
By getting JDM, JBJ and Mookie off the books they save about $60M. They need more pitching. Both starting and relieving. Hate to lose JDM and Mookie but this team has more hitting than pitching. A winning team needs balance.
I like it but unless you add salary to replace those guys you got Sam Travis playing a lot of innings in left field and who DH’s? Maybe Pedroia comes back Chavis plays first and DH’s?
SS, 3B, LF, C are good to go. They have Gorkys, Marco, Chavis, Travis maybe Holt and who ever they can’t unload.
Jackie Bradley to Marlins for Magneuris Sierra and Nick Neidhart. Maybe a third prospect if needed. Who says no?
No. Jeter would never do that deal.
Reds could use him. He’d love hitting at GABP
They need to sign the Brockstar, n trade Mookie, n Jackie n maybe they get a high draft choice pick next yr.
Any chance Ben Cherington is considered for, or is even interested in, the Red Sox GM job? Seems he might fit in well with direction they are trying to go. The farm system needs major improvement…
No chance Ben is coming back.
Ben cherington was terrible. He was a less than successful Dave Dombrowski clone. He signed pricey veterans who didn’t work out.
They tried trading him last year with no takers. So less control at more money and they think they can deal him?
The Red Sox never tried to trade JBJ last year.
Is Bradley worth the $11M? Seems most here would say no. If Sox management feels the same, then why not simply nontender him?
Because if they don’t – they would probably have to eat $5M of that deal just to get a mid level prospect. And then they would STILL have to find an outfielder to replace him. If the Sox are serious with wanting to get under $208M next year… seems like a no brainer.
Amen
They won’t nontender him for the same reason they kept Swihart when the rest of the league figured out he was never going to be a good player. They have a blind spot for guys that come out of their own system.
A blind spot for guys coming out of their own system? You’re joking right?
Devers Bogaerts Betts Jackie Bradley jr. Benintendi? Moncada kopech Anderson Espinoza? They have plenty of excellent players and Prospects coming out of their system.
Uh Bradley not worth close to $11 million for anyone! Not interested in hearing silly sabermetric analogies either…
So are you trading him or just cutting him loose? Okay so who plays right field and what will his salary be?
Playing GM – I’m cutting him loose and moving Mookie back to CF. Attempt to sign a RF for half the price.
If Atlanta declines their option on Markakis, I try and get him. Maybe Hunter Pence if he becomes available. A guy in a short term deal in hopes Duran or Wilson can fill an OF role in 2021.
That being said, the teams outlook may change this stance. Is JD opting out? Are they seriously considering trading Mookie? If the answer is yes to both then I’m still letting JBJ go but might try for someone like Garcia in a longer term deal.
Good post. I think the mookie option in Center is out, he’s gone. Benny to Center sounds great and perhaps and Travis in left now.
Going to have to pick up a new right fielder and I like the options you present. J D Martinez is definitely opting out if you listen to his agent and JD said he would go with what his agent suggested.
If Mookie is traded, and JD opts out…. then it seems the teams primary concern is simply getting under the luxury tax limit. Or I guess it would depend on what Mookie is traded FOR.
Either way, I still don’t like Benny in CF… his arm would get exposed long term in my opinion. Maybe that Japanese player (akiyama) on a short term deal…. and then one of Pence/Markakis in RF for 1 season. Both positions could be filled for the price Bradley would cost… although you can’t expect Pence or Markakis to start 150 games either.
But trading Mookie could help fill one of these spots as well.
If Sox management really HAS to get under the luxury tax threshold… then they may as well trade Price too – eat $50M to save $96M. Then trade Mookie and get a good starter and prospects. JMO.
Ditch JBJ. Nontender or trade him for a half-full can of Pouches (his approximate worth), pick one it doesn’t matter. Mookie is a CF. If you want to get creative, make Benintendi a CF since he hasn’t hit enough to play in front of the Monster ever.
Point is, JBJ needs to go 3 years ago.
Blockbuster: JBJ for some chicken and beer
Crazy idea, offer him something like 3-$21M or 4- $28M. If he is realistic he may take it. Sox save a few million from the cap, keep a GG CF who is fine if paid like a bottom of the order bat. Duran seems to be the closest guy and he is likely 2 years away so keeping JBJ at the right price makes sense.
Not crazy… but JBJ is a guy who is in decline. Would he get $20M+ on the open market? I do realize he only turns 30 at the start of next season – but look at his average these last four years; .267,.245, .234, and .225. The shift is killing him. Plus his strikeout total was higher this past year than it’s ever been.
If Sox keep Mookie…. wouldn’t they want that $14 or $21M left of JBJs deal to put toward signing him? Or even if Mookie is gone – if Duran has another great year in the minors next year… wouldn’t they want to slide him in at CF in 2021? They’d have to attempt to trade JBJ and then would most likely have to eat some of that money. JMO
I dont think $7M a year would impact Betts at all. I’d like to think Duran is that close and if he is that is security if Betts leaves or for Benintendi. I guess worst case is things work out and JBJ becomes your 4th OF at that price for a year or two.
Jbj for tyler oneill, kid could hit a ton of Homer’s in boston, and the red sox would cut payroll. Jbj would take over for Bader who cant hit at all anymore
They hire a GM from Tampa or Oakland etc. that can find bargains and knows the young talent.
They non-tender JBJ.
They trade Mookie now or, trade him at the deadline or QO him after the 2020 season.
JDM opts out or gets traded this winter.
Then they add the new pieces they need at low cost.
They have enough talent with the remainder of the team to be competitive.
They always draft and develop wisely.
They pick up bargains as they become available.
If they are in it at the trade deadline they pick up a player that is a FA to be from a team that is out of it and cut him after the season ends.
They refuse to issue any more long term contracts.
This leaves them with cash and payroll space to spend if they are in it July 31st.
They repeat this year in and year out religiously.
THE WINNING FORMULA.
.
Sounds like a winning formula except the two teams mentioned haven’t won in a long time so maybe that formula is good for keeping a team afloat and/or competitive with limited resources but in the end it doesn’t produce the results we want.
Look at the teams doing well in the playoffs. Washington and Houston have stud pitching. St. Louis got great pitching to advance to the finals in the NL. The Red Sox have a comparable amount of pitching with Washington or Houston but they had a bad year due to poor planning, injuries and poor analytics.
The Red Sox need a new pitching coach, need a manager who knows pitching better than Cora even if he is inexperienced like Cora maybe a guy like Varitek and we need to make sure Spring Training is planned properly so we don’t fall behind in March and April like last year.
Ask yourself, what big market team recently won a world series by using a small market mentality? I think the answer is nobody.
How expensive are Scherzer, Strassburg and Corbin? $75M How expensive are Verlander, Cole and Greinke? $75M Price, Sale, Eovaldi ? $63M in 2019. The formula of not spending isn’t winning World Series rings!! The formula for winning rings is cheap hitters because they are under control and expensive pitching. The Yankee model is slightly different since they spend the equivalent of two top flight starters on 6 relievers and wing it with their starters. That’s probably why they haven’t won recently.
For us to get back to the WS we need our dominant pitching, we need our explosive offense and we need good front office leadership including manager. We are seeking the last two pieces but we have the players to win again with a few minor tweaks.