Although the Braves bought out right-hander Julio Teheran’s 2020 option on Monday, that doesn’t necessarily mean the two sides’ longstanding union is over. General manager Alex Anthopoulos indicated after letting Teheran go that he hasn’t slammed the door on signing the hurler to a new contract, per David O’Brien of The Athletic (subscription link).
“We’ll continue to stay in contact with him,” Anthopoulos said. “Obviously, he’ll have a chance now to test the market and talk to other teams. But I think there’s an openness on both sides to continue the relationship. So, we’ll see where that leads.”
While Teheran’s no longer the front-end starter he looked like earlier in his career, the two-time All-Star has at least been a productive source of innings throughout his MLB tenure. Teheran just turned in his seventh straight season with no fewer than 30 starts (33) or 170-plus frames (174 2/3). He pitched to an above-average 3.81 ERA along the way, but as has typically been the case, ERA indicators such as FIP (4.66), xFIP (5.26) and SIERA (5.11) were far less bullish. Teheran did strike out a career-high 8.35 batters per nine, but he also walked 4.28, continued to induce grounders at a less-than-stellar clip (39 percent), and saw his average fastball velocity drop to a personal-low 89.7 mph. Those are just some of the red flags that may have scared off the Braves, who turned down paying Teheran $12MM for next season in favor of a $1MM buyout.
Now that he’s on the free-agent market, Teheran – who still has one more season left in his 20s – has a chance to score an overall larger guarantee than the one the Braves rejected. MLBTR regards Teheran as one of a few starters who could secure a pact in the $18MM range over two years.
Anthopoulos’ words aside, it obviously looks doubtful Atlanta will end up as the team to hand Teheran his next deal. The Braves instead appear poised to redirect some of what would have been Teheran’s money in an effort to reel in a bigger fish, as they’ll go after “a front-line starter” to join the returning trio of Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz, O’Brien writes.
Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg are hands down the top unsigned starters in the sport, but both seem like unrealistic targets for Atlanta. Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jake Odorizzi, Dallas Keuchel (a Brave in 2019) and Cole Hamels are among the best of the rest, and no one there will rival Cole or Strasburg in earning power. However, it’s up for debate how many of them are legitimate rotation headliners at this point. The Braves could also explore the trade market, where the Tigers’ Matthew Boyd (an ATL target over the summer) and the Indians’ Corey Kluber are among those who may be rumor mill regulars this winter.
todd76
Don’t do it AA!
StandUpGuy
I was talking to my wife the other day and she was all like, “Oh, my God! You’re an animal! I don’t even know you anymore!”
You know. She’s always stressin about something. It was kinda cool.
realgone2
Unless it’s for a couple million tops then I agree. Braves need much better pitching if they wanna hang with the nationals. Also, you never know what the phillies are going to do.
Gmen777
If I’m a fan of neither team but the Braves had a better record than the Nationals and it’s a very real possibility the Nats lose both Strasburg and Rendon. If they lose both they might miss out on the playoffs altogether
billdale
While I agree that a frontline starter is probably necessary for a deep postseason run, the Braves did beat the Nationals for the division title the past two seasons so they can obviously hang with the Nationals
802Ghost
Agreed, this is where a new manager comes into play, and does a better job for Atlanta in the postseason.
RLD
What makes you so sure a new/different manager is what the Braves need. Nothing wrong with Snit. Snit did screw-up not leaving Fried in to pitch 3 innings in game #1. Snit does need to sit/rest his players more during the year.
802Ghost
It can’t hurt. Snit has had a chance. It’s time to go in a different direction.
RLD
What do you mean ” if the Braves want to hang with the Nationals “? The Braves won the division. It’s the Nationals that have to do a lot of things this winter if they want to hang with the Braves next year.
spinach
Think some of the free agent predictions are way off. In the context of this article I will mention that Bumgarner in the 70s is absurd.
TradeAcuna
You got to be bleeping me!
TheLawAbides
There’s no way they want to re-sign him right? Gave him a 1M buyout while Quintana got his option picked up for 11.5M, is 2 years older and not the better pitcher. Don’t think you’ll get him cheaper than the option you declined.
Try something more like 55M/4
Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA
Nobody is giving Tehran 55/4, nobody. His major velocity decline is a huge red flag. 55/4 10 years ago sure, but a 4/5 inning eaters starter isn’t valued anymore. Oh boy 55/4, somebody is getting fired. Maybe just maybe 6M AAV over two or 3.
wordonthestreet
What the Cubs did with Quintana has no relevance to the Braves and what they decide to do.
And sure they can get him for less than the option they declined. And if they don’t they do not care as they determined the value of the option exceeded the value Tehran would return
TheLawAbides
Quintana doesn’t affect what the BRAVES do but he’s a free agent now and I’m sure his agent knows how much similar pitchers like Quintana,Gray,Bauer,Rorark, Porcello, etc are making. If you think he’s only going to get 6M annually maybe you should look what pitchers that can consistently pith 175+ innings of 3.75 ERA can get. If that’s what he accepts somebody should be fired and that’s his agent!
jbigz12
Ask Gio Gonzalez how strong his market was last season. The Braves just turned down the opportunity to have him at 1/11. 6 per may be a bit low but I really see his ceiling as a 2/16 million dollar deal. Teams won’t pay for past results that look completely unsustainable.
His best bet is to take a deal like Cashner did with incentive upside.
Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA
I was somewhat over exaggerating my stance to make a point. What’s clear though is teams have pivoted for paying a premium for backend innings eaters. Agree or disagree, they are just not very valuable in this day and age. GMs are more willing to trade mass innings for greater performance. What’s clear is he is a shell of his career numbers. You have to express major concern over his his last 3 years rather than his career ERA. He has experienced a massive velo drop, his BB have experienced a concerning rise, and his ks have stagnated. Sure he’s continuing to outperformed his FIP, but for sake of argument the sentiment concerning his playoff viability speaks volumes. Tehran like many guys is also giving up a good amount of HR balls. The Braves declining a 11M option tells you a lot. 55/4 is just invincible in both money and years to be honest. He’ll probably get closer to a incentive based one year with options.
SoCalBrave
I like Teheran, perhaps more than most, because I valued his experience, his never give up attitude and also that you can pencil him in for 5-6 innings every 5 days.
But even I think that 4/55M is laughable. He’ll be lucky to get a 3/25, but most likely will have to settle for a 2 year deal in the same range.
rxbrgr
I’ve always been impressed with AA’s track record as a GM when he was with the Blue Jays: from the Donaldson and Price trades, to the Bautista and Encarnacion pickups, which were underrated at the time they happened. His strength does seem to be finding hitters over pitchers (B.J. Ryan?), though A.J. Burnett wasn’t Jeffrey Epstein didn’t kill himself.
Down with OBP
BJ Ryan was not signed by AA.
Socrates Curveball
Teheran has Pittsburgh written all over him. Maybe that changes with Huntington out. But he’s their classic FA profile. Guy in his prime that struggles to find multiple Yrs from a contender in that 1.5-2.5 WAR range. Analytics don’t do justice to him being a quality rotation piece. Great pick off move too.
bravesfan
He’s not exactly in his prime. His best years are behind him although he’s still very young
mlb1225
I was thinking the same. He’s no ace, but the Pirates just need a solid, durable guy in the rotation. Tehran fits that description.
802Ghost
Or Seattle.
bravesfan
I have no problem bringing him back on a cheaper contract. But like the article states, 2 years $18mil is something he should be able to get and I don’t think for our Braves team and our limited budget that we can pay him 9 mil a year, especially considering we won’t even put him on our playoff roster. Who knows, maybe he gives us a huge discount for like 5-6 mil a year for 3 years. At that point, I don’t have much of a problem getting him and if we want a prospect to take over we shouldn’t have trouble trading away. But I don’t think that’s realistic. He’s still in his 20’s. If I’m him, I’m going for the largest contract possible no matter what team. 18mil over 2 year is good, but I’m looking for a 3-4 year contract even if my per year is less. More money overall
Idosteroids
Thank you to Julio for everything he’s done for us over the rebuild, that’s important to remember for braves fans. If you bring back Teheran its as a #5 starter. Can get them for less than half of hes making now.
steelerbravenation
Time to move on
He has Seattle written all over him
Nice pitchers park he provides innings for that young rotation and if he pitches well could be moved at the deadline
steelerbravenation
Braves need to sign MadBum
Give Newk the 5th starters spot
Keep Wright in AAA as insurance
If the rotation stays healthy use him as a chip at the deadline
Move Bryse Wilson to the bullpen and groom him to be the closer of the future
Resign O’Day
Resign JD
Sign Jason Castro
Trade Ender to Giants for Will Smith after he accepts the qualifying offer
bravesfan
Why does this Bryse Wilson as closer topic even exist? He doesn’t exactly have closer stuff… in fact, I think he’s better suited to be a starter. If he ever does go to the bullpen, I can see him as a good chip that can provide quality innings, but I don’t see him as a shut down closer type at all. Also, I don’t think Wright should be an trading chip quite yet. He easily can be a really good starting pitcher very soon.
steelerbravenation
He has closer stuff because he attacks hitters
Not all closers have to have 100 mph FB to be successful
I like the way he goes after hitters and the way he doesn’t seemed to be phased if he fails. He seems like he has the ability to bounce back.
So it’s more about his mental make up being a closer for me unlike Folty who has the physical tools to be a dominant closer but not the mentss AS l game for it.
If he runs into trouble he implodes. But when he is on he could be great.
bravesfan
Right, but his stuff doesn’t play well for a closer. I agree with u, but if you truly don’t have an out pitch, being a closer is a tough job. I agree with everything you are saying, except he profiles more as a starter than a late inning bullpen guy. At best, maybe a setup pitcher.
its_happening
Wilson’s stuff would definitely profile as a closer. Slider is strong enough, change is strong enough, can run the fastball closer to high-90s than mid-90’s for 1 inning.
But I would leave him as a starter. Folty is the guy to make a closer and have him go to therapy. Lots of therapy.
802Ghost
I think Folty would be fine mentally only facing a team once per outing. Seems to me that he has issues after the first time through the order.
RLD
95 isn’t closer stuff? If the Braves can’t sign Bumgarner or Wheeler for 1 or 2 years, then sign Teheran back for 6-8 million. If he doesn’t want that, try Cole Hammels. I think Wilson would be a good/great closer. He has the mentality and stuff. There are only 5 spots for starters, so he would kinda be the odd man out, so why not let him be the closer at least for now. We can’t have Melancon as our closer going into next year. Folty, Soroka, Fried, Newk. and either Teheran/Bumgarner/Wheeler at #5.
802Ghost
O’Day is terrible. Let him move on. He’s sucked money out of Atlanta and no value for him for Atlanta.
JD will require 3 years, which is fine, IMO, as Riley doesn’t appear to be ready to man the corner for the future.
Right now the rotation is: (missing a #1)
Soroka
Fried
Folty
Newk? (if he wins it)
Wilson isn’t exactly closer mater as mentioned. Folty would actually be better suited for that role. He has the stuff, and he can deal w/ less mentally as a closer, as you typically face each person once per game.
Anderson is closing on needing a spot on the rotation. Wright is trade bait.
Ender needs to be traded (as mentioned, for a RP) with Duvall. No place for either of them as Waters & Pache are ready. Let them start opening day with Acuna, and you’ll have the outfield of the next decade set. Sign them (or attempt) early like Acuna & Albies, and you’ll find a long-term solution that only requires bench players (Markakis, Joyce, etc).
Johan comes back in 2020.
If it were me…
LF Waters (1)
CF Pache (2)
RF Acuna (3)
3B Donaldson (4)
SS Swanson (5)
2B Albies (6)
1B Freeman (7)
C Flowers/Grandal (8-9)
Bench: Ortega (10) (OF insurance), Camargo (11) (IF insurance), Riley (12) (3b/1b insurance), Hamilton (13) (of insurance, late-inning runner), Culberson (14) (all-around insurance)
Starting pitchers: (15-19) 1- TBD 2- Soroka 3- Folty 4- Fried 5- Newcomb
Relief pitchers: (20-26) Jackson, Melancon, Jackson, Greene, Minter, Daniel Hudson, Chris Martin
Edit: I can go either way on Jackson and Minter. I think Minter regains his confidence in 2020 with the right amount of Spring Training. Jackson is a good RP outside of the closer role.
Also, if Atlanta doesn’t give JD a no-trade clause, he can be traded for prospects or top talent if Atlanta determines that Riley is ready for 3B of the future.
802Ghost
Wild Card is Chris Martin. If Ender is traded, try for Will Smith as mentioned. If Smith comes, Martin is left off.
Jon429
Have to admit there’s value to a guy who can pitch 200+ innings a season, stay off the IL, and give you more quality starts than bad ones. Not $12 million dollars of value, but still value as a solid #5 starter. As much as the guy frustrates me to watch him pitch I think it would be good if they can bring him back on an incentive based contract, much like Wainwright got from the Cards.
Bill Rea
Julio sure can bunt! Thank you but I need that 11m and Keuchels 13m to resign JD. Trade for Betts, sign Madbum, Cervelli and call it a day.
steelerbravenation
To much to give up for what will essentially be 1 year of Betts.
Atlanta would never sign him for the contract he will get.
I think with the Cespedas contract coming off the books next year and Stroman fee to leave
I think the Mets will sign Betts next year
802Ghost
Where does the love affair with Cervelli come from? he’s one concussion away from being done, he’s older and he can’t slide worth a dang.
I don’t think he’s capable of splitting a full season worth of catching duties. Why would Atlanta give up the package required for Betts, for a rental? They won’t be the one to sign him in FA, he’ll command to much money.
The Braves are set in the OF, they just need to promote Waters and Pache, whcih are both ready, to pair with Acuna.
jbigz12
Drew waters barely got his feet wet in AAA. He didn’t hit all that much there either. He’s certainly not ready. Pache didn’t tear it up either for that matter. A couple months down there certainly would not hurt either one of them
802Ghost
Eh, Pache SHOULD have won the job outright from Spring Training over Ender. He was a lot better, stat-wise, than Ender.
See what you have in them, put them up and get ’em ready. Maybe they’re a Riley, or maybe they’re an Acuna/Albies. But either way, get ’em there. Stop letting them waste away in AAA.
Bill Rea
Bunt. He’ll have to hunt elsewhere.
seth3120
Not a Braves fan but I think as usual it depends on what else they do. They are a strong team I think they should be thinking about who they can add to truly bolster their chances in a five or seven game series. As a Cards fan I obviously watched the Braves 2019 playoff blunder and to me it seemed like starting pitching really hurt. Kuechel would not be the guy I’d want in game one and he’s even a free agent now. I think pitching was mismanaged pulling Kuechel after only four innings.