Just over a month ago, Astros owner Jim Crane expressed uncertainty as to whether the team would try to re-sign right-hander Gerrit Cole – now the undisputed best pitcher available in free agency. But Crane, who just watched his Astros drop a hard-fought seven-game World Series against the Nationals, has publicly changed his tune. Crane told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and other reporters Monday that the Astros will at least make an effort to keep the coveted Cole in Houston.
“We’re going to take a run at it,” Crane said. “We don’t know if we can get to where they want to get. [Agent Scott] Boras is tough to deal with.”
The famed Boras is sure to drive an especially hard bargain in negotiations for Cole. After all, the 29-year-old flamethrower is coming off a marvelous season that could see him earn Cy Young honors for the first time. Even if Cole – who’s a finalist for the AL award with two starters he knows well in the Astros’ Justin Verlander and the Rays’ Charlie Morton – doesn’t wind up winning, a record payday should soon be in the offing. The seven-year, $217MM contract David Price signed with the Red Sox entering 2016 still stands as the largest deal a pitcher has ever signed, though Cole has a legitimate chance to obliterate (not just surpass) that guarantee prior to next season.
MLBTR forecasts an eight-year, $256MM pact for Cole, and that type of money could make a return to Houston especially unlikely if the team’s bent on avoiding the luxury tax. Crane has already said the Astros would “prefer not to” spend beyond the $208MM tax threshold in 2020. However, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained last month, limboing under the line looks as if it will be a challenge even without Cole in the mix. Indeed, factoring in the arbitration projections of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs estimates the Astros already have upward of $239MM in luxury-tax calculations for next year. There’s room to trim some of that down – including by, say, non-tendering Aaron Sanchez (who’s projected to earn a $5.6MM salary) – but seemingly not enough to put the Astros in a position to re-up Cole without blowing the $208MM mark out of the water.
Of course, there’s an argument the Astros – if they actually do want to keep Cole – should throw tax concerns aside. As Adams previously pointed out, even if the Astros were to outspend the $208MM figure by $40MM next season, they’d “only” pay in the range of $10.4MM in penalties. That amount doesn’t look as if it should stop a team from working to re-sign one of the premier pitchers in baseball and someone who could soon rake in an overall guarantee worth approximately 25 times that sum.
Crazier things have happened
Why
They realized they can’t win without him.
They havent won anything with him, ALCS loss and WS loss.
And would have never gotten that far without him.
And if Cole leaves, Teufel, they can start the rebuild. They will free fall.
They need him. Cole can easily swing the balance of power in the A.L.
3 weeks ago Crane said they did not have the payroll flexibility to sign Cole. Now he is trying to save face with fans by saying they will make a run at him. In other words “I am making an excuse in advance for not signing him. We will make a low ball offer and then say well, we couldn’t sign him but we tried.”
Steinbrenner or Crane are not spending that kind of money and years on a single pitcher, either would I. However, someone will and they will be sorry they did.
Of all the players getting huge contracts, elite starting pitchers probably make the most sense. They have a greater impact on a single game than a single position player, and their contracts rarely go more than 6 years. It’s the big contracts to the likes of Albert Pujols, Giancarlo Stanton and Bryce Harper that teams really end up regretting.
They only regret it when the guy is 37, 38, 39, 40 and still making 25M. Or if he gets a career altering injury like Ryan Howard.
But they do regret it, which was the point.
I doubt future CBAs will walk back the AAV concept. Because of that, even if a team puts a wind down on salaries on the back end it’ll be counted/taxed at a much higher rate and still have the outsized crippling effects.
If someone had to guess it’s that most of the teams factor in a planned obsolescence that their competitive window will close and they will tank those couple years of outpriced salary to rebuild with a bare buck payroll and it won’t hurt anyways.
While elite SP are very important, everyday players impact more games in a pitcher who has what 33 or 34 starts in a season. Pitching is more volatile.
How many FA pitcher mega contracts have turned out for SP? Maddux, Scherzer, Lester
Those pitchers make the difference in the post season and greatly decide how well your pen is going to pitch. The teams that win have the big 2-3 guys that dominate. They are crucial for the post season. You can always have a hero at the plate.. look at Geoff Blum.. it isn’t always the star that hits the game winning homer or drives in the game winning run. But Starting pitching makes the entire team more effective. It takes pressure off the hitters and gives your valuable pen a ton more value by keeping them fresh. Not to mention it is the current recipe for success in MLB.. develop hitters and buy your starters to fill out the rotation. Like every MLB player says.. good pitching ALWAYS beats good hitting. It’s the way the game is.. it’s why teams pay top dollar for a stopper in their rotation.
8 years for a pitcher that’s turning 30 next year? Pass. $256 million for a player who is in roughly 1 game per week? Nope. Let Cole be the next albatross contract Moreno pays for.
Many said the same thing about the Scherzer contract when it was signed. And the big Verlander extension w/the Tigers. And the last 2 Greinke contracts.
angels
Angels. Agreed.
Maybe 10 postseason home games makes a bigger difference to the bottom line than people think.
I’m an Astros fan. I love what Cole was in Houston, and remember some said the Astros overpaid to get him at the time. I would not give any player the contract he will get – and deserves based on market, don’t get me wrong – but at that length, for any player, it will end badly. I wish him all the best and hope my team can recover without him.
Maybe settle on Ryu. Unless the Astros can find someone to take on Reddick’s contract it will be hard to see Cole returning.
Ryu comes with an ambulance as well. He’s definitely not a good alternative for teams looking for health value.
Better a 3-year pact than a 7 or 8. Greinke trade has hurt Houston’s ability to lock Cole up. Had they traded for Stroman instead, Houston would be front-runners for Cole. Good lefties have also seen success in Houston in that ballpark.
I think they have to try everything they can to re-sign him. Verlander and Greinke, though freakishly still good at their age could run out of gas any second now. When they do, Cole should still be in his prime
You’re absolutely correct regarding the on the field product. But that contract, sheesh, a big pill to swallow.
True. But you have $68 mil coming off the books in 2021 between Verlander and Greinker
That’s not too bad, only two more years for Verlander and Greinke.
Get McCullers back, See what Urquidy,Abreu, and Whitley can do. Maybe go after Wheeler or Ryu. They will have to spend on the bullpen with Smith and Harris being FAs. After 22 they really only have Bregman and Altuve on the books. I love me som Cole, but I don’t see him being worth it but 4 of those 8 years.
At some point in time, the Astros are going to to realize that they can/should also develop more pitchers from their farm system rather than reloading each year. Having 3/5 of your rotation on “rental” players continues to be costly.
As they should, would love to see him back with the Astros.
$256mil over 8yrs?
50/50 call.
Verlander is a FA after a few seasons so the Astros might have to shell out to stay competitive after that with their SPs.
Boras showed last offseason the Total Guarantee & Term is far more important than AAV. The Harper 13 Yr $330M Deal works for both sides as it keeps the AAV down for the luxury tax calculation. And we’ve seen Owners view even the first CBT threshold as practically a salary cap.
7 Yrs 245M locks Cole up through his Age 35 Season at $35M per Yr
9 Yrs $300M locks Cole up through his Age 37 season at $33.333M per Yr
10 Yrs $325M through Age 38 at $32.5M.
Lower the AAV saves big money on a luxury tax. That’s why I see Cole getting 9-10 Yrs.
Astros will run with Verlander/Greinke and push for another rental by the trade deadline. Astros are smart and don’t make long investments in a pitcher. To much risk for that.
This won’t happen. They are already close to $208M with out him. Much better would be Wheeler who has a higher spin rate than Cole for much less.