Gerrit Cole will draw a lot of interest this winter as arguably the top available talent in this winter’s free agent market, though it isn’t yet clear if his current team will join in the hunt. Astros owner Jim Crane told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle that the AL West champions “don’t know yet” if they will have the payroll space to afford what could very well be a $200MM+ contract for the right-hander’s services.
“We’ll see where we end up after the year. We may make a run at it. We’re not sure yet. We’re going to wait and see what else unfolds and who else is going to stay on the team,” Crane said.
The Astros’ ability to stay under the $208MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold could very well be a factor, as Crane said that he would “prefer not to” exceed the number, “but we may win the World Series, so you never know.” That last comment could be interpreted in a couple of different ways — a long postseason run would add extra revenue to the team’s coffers, and perhaps provide the extra funds necessary to splurge for Cole. Or, Crane could be making a reference to the Astros’ competitive window, as winning a second championship in three years could spur the franchise to exceed their financial comfort zone in pursuit of becoming a mini-dynasty.
Houston extended Justin Verlander last spring and then acquired Zack Greinke at the trade deadline, leading to speculation that the Astros were already looking ahead to bolster their rotation for a post-Cole world. Beyond those two veteran aces, however, there’s a lot of uncertainty in the 2020 Astros’ pitching mix.
With Wade Miley and Collin McHugh also scheduled for free agency and Aaron Sanchez uncertain to be tendered a contract in the wake of shoulder surgery, the Astros have breakout rookie Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr. returning from Tommy John surgery, Brad Peacock, and Framber Valdez all lined up as contenders for the final three rotation spots. Top prospect Forrest Whitley is also tentatively expected to make his debut next season, despite a very rocky 2019 campaign. Needless to say, returning Cole to the rotation would obviously be a huge boost, and would greatly aid the Astros in their search for another title.
As per Roster Resource, Houston’s luxury tax figure for 2020 sits just shy of $156.5MM, a number boosted by the recent extensions handed out to Verlander, Alex Bregman, and Ryan Pressly. That figure will be further increased by big arbitration raises due to George Springer, Roberto Osuna, and Carlos Correa (among other arb-eligibles), leaving the Astros in the $200MM ballpark even before re-signing Cole.
It’s worth noting that the Astros have never exceeded the CBT threshold in their club history, and thus would be taxed at the first-timer rate of 20% of every dollar spent between the $208MM and $228MM figures. The team also has some significant money coming off the books after the 2020 season, as Springer, Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel, and Josh Reddick are all free agents. While one would figure Houston would look to re-sign at least some members of that group (Springer in particular), there is some room for maneuvering if the team only wanted to exceed the tax limit for one season. If the Astros stayed under the secondary penalty limit and only had a $227MM luxury tax number in 2020, their tax bill would come to roughly $3.8MM — seemingly a pretty modest price to pay.
While the luxury tax has been around in some form since 1997, it has become an increasingly large factor in teams’ offseason spending in recent years, particularly since the current Collective Bargaining Agreement was finalized in the 2016-17 offseason. Traditionally big-spending teams like the Yankees and Dodgers have taken pains to duck under the tax line, while the Red Sox are also planning to get under the $208MM mark next season, less than two years after winning a World Series while exceeding the top penalty area (at least $40MM over the threshold) to do so.
Everyone knows he’s going to end up in LA. Now, with that said….if they planned on Correa re-signing and possibly had money to the side for him, take every cent he was going to be offered and offer it to Cole and let Correa walk. God forbid the wind blows the wrong direction in his face.
Of course Correa is controlled through 2021, so I’m guessing you’re thinking they could trade him and apply the $10MM or whatever he gets in arbitration to re-signing Cole.
@Orbit. Every year we hear that the Dodgers are going to sign the top Free Agents and clean out their Farm System with trades and they never do.
He’s going to the Angels, not the Dodgers.
The only way Cole ends up with the Angels is if LA outbids at least six other teams. My money’s on the field.
Cole wants to go to the West Coast, I do believe.
Please provide your source.
Went to UCLA for starters…
What that have to do with anything?
The Astros players, Springer, Bregman, Altuve, etc…
If you think the Angels won’t break the bank for Cole you haven’t been paying attention. The have a $150m year TV deal routine put 3,000,000 butts in the seats, plus merchandising, concessions, parking advertising and more. They will match any offer this year, plus Cole is a big fan of Ohtani and looks forward to following his career, and there’s Mike Trout. Arte doesn’t want to be known as the owner that wasted the career of the greatest player on the planet any longer.
You’re wrong. The only way he goes to the Angels is if local boy and Angel fan Cole overrides Boras and decides to sign with the Angels early in the process.
Moreno method of operation is to make a large offer, give the player a little time to make a decision and then move on.
Moreno is not going to be used as a prop to increase the bidding. If he’s out, he’s going to get out early.
Name one top free agent that took less money to go to a hometown team.
I’m not sure what your point is.
My point is the Angels wont be in the process long enough to know they are the highest bidder.
Boras method of operation is to have the negotiations go on months. The Angels method of operation is to strike fast.
The only way Cole goes to the Angels is if the Cole overrides Boras. My prediction is he wont sign with the Angels. I’ve changed my mind on this after talking to some people.
Kerry Wood came off a $10M contract after transforming himself into a very effective reliever and turned down a larger offer from the Yankees, for whom he had just pitched the last half season and went home to Chicago for $1.5M and $3.M. We liked him a lot in NYC and were disappointed when he left, but hats off
The Angels won’t get far with that approach then. Might explain why they never seem to get top free agent pitching.
Stan Musial Ted Williams Ernie Banks .
@ChiSoxCity Ben Zobrist, Jered Weaver
Richdanna, Zobrist was never a top free agent. Not sure of Weaver’s scenario, but it had to be over a decade ago, which proves my point.
Grady, surely you are joking.
He might have been an Angels fan growing up, but it seems like there was one other team that was his true love. If not, then he has a lot of explaining to do about this sign:
https://i.pinimg.com/236x/a5/dc/fe/a5dcfee2000ea92574cef8a76602a732–yankees-baby-new-york-yankees.jpg
Keep in mind that the Yankees originally drafted Cole, but he opted to go back to school. The Pirates then drafted him ahead of the Yankees, who then tried to trade for him. Just noting the Yankees have always had an interest, and he clearly was a fan.
I have no idea where he’ll sign, but as a Boras client, you can be sure it will be for the most money. If the Yankees decide to play, meaning pay, then the odds are pretty high he’ll be in the Bronx. Recent history, however, suggests the Yankees won’t get into a bidding war. These are no longer George’s Yankees.
Wasn’t Kerry Wood for Texas?
*from
If the Yankees decide to play, there is no reason to believe he wont be playing for the Yankees.
They have signed Vlad, Colon, Wilson, Pujols and Hamilton with that method. All top three free agents at the time.
It’s a method that has worked. And Wilson was the #1 agent pitcher that year and I believe Colon was as well.
macstruts, re-read my post. I’m talking about pitchers.
I like having discussions. The Angels signed Colon and CJ Willson with that approach. I think people forget CJ Wilson was very very good, and he didn’t have a lot of innings on his arm. .
I believe both were #1 free agent pitchers the year they went to free agency.
Sometimes the method works, sometimes it doesn’t. But it is a method that doesn’t work with Boras. Therefore I don’t believe the Angels will get a top of the line Boras free agent, pitcher or hitter.
The Angels will not be used as a pawn to jack up the price.
Jared Weaver avoid FA by signing a team friendly contract to stay in his home town.
Except that he turned them down when first drafted by NY in the first round… And now he can pick the team he wants to play for and the Angels are prepared to match any offer. He has said he still gets chills driving by the Big A.
IMO he’ll end up in the Bronx.
I think the Astros probably let Correa walk, because he is just too injury prone to sign for big dollars to be a core team member…..
Not sure means no.
Or it means I’d rather keep it close to my chest before negotiations
Texans don’t like taxes.
just 8% + sales tax
We have 6% plus in PA plus a bunch of taxes that Texas does not have. Wish I was in Texas…….
Also major property taxes here, despite the state’s reputation as a low-tax state. Between city, county and school district, even with new forced caps by the state on school districts, you can easily pay more than $2 per $100 valuation.
Texas’ property taxes are higher than California’s. They pretty much tax what you spend, not what you make.
Which is exactly the way taxes should work. Income tax is ridiculous.
low tax but chem plant fires.
Why cant they make MLB the Show or MLB2K for Xbox One? RBI 19 isnt even that good, can someone please ask about that? Also, do you think someone can ask RBI 19 to have create a player in the game?
Sony has exclusive licensing rights with MLB I believe.
I know but they don’t for Madden and FIFA, etc.
madden and fifa are ea sports games and ea is not exclusive to one console
It should be apparent by now you bought the wrong console.
Buy more than one. I have Switch, Xbox one and PS 4 Pro.
i have a game room setup in my home. even ps2 for gt3 with cheat codes.
I would certainly think that the Astros will look to re-sign Gurriel and Brantley, with Reddick a possibility so not sure what Mark is talking about and with the arb money that they will have to pony up, their payroll is definitely going up.
Whether they go after Cole, will probably depend on the health and success of the other rotation options.
And what’s up with the “breakout rookie” Urquidi as far as a 3.95 ERA and 40 something innings pitched, why he should be labeled a “breakout rookie”????? Are these Cy Young numbers?
Cole certainly ain’t going to the Yankees.
Why certainly not the Yankees????
Also, not noted in the piece? Greinke’s just on the book two more years. So you go over for 2020; you get creative for 2021, then you take HIS money and do new stuff in 2022.
All that money for playing ball… Not sure exactly a regular job making 12-15$ an hour lol…
Why is the owner even talking about this right now? If I were him I’d just decline to comment.
No need for the Astros to offer or even engage Cole in a long term deal. Offer him 2/80 and move along. They seem to be ahead of the curve when it comes to pitching so no point in overpaying, considering how often pitchers get injured.
History has shown the intelligent fans and of course the GMs that 5-7 year contracts for SP a majority have failed but collusion right lol.
thats what im thinking. Hes trying to get ready for the playoffs and then he hears that the team does not know if they are going to pursue him or not? This comment was stupid and unnecessary by the Astros to make. Should have declined to comment and moved on.
Iverblue.
The multi-billionaire owners appreciate your support.
I would much rather the leisure class of owners make higher profits than try to win a Championship or two…
You sir truly “get it”.
Bravo.
I think it depends how good the pitcher is.
I think history has shown that 5 year deals (or three- or four-year deals, for that matter) for pitchers that haven’t shown any signs of sniffing the Hall of Fame are a bad idea (Chen, Kennedy, Samardzija, Zimmermann, Cobb) are not a good idea.
If you look at guys with Hall of Fame talent being signed long term, the outlook is better overall. Scherzer, Lester, Sabathia, Cueto, Darvish, Price… sure some of theee guys have underwhelmed but if I was a team with a hefty resources I would go for one of these guys over two of the lower grade guys any day of the week.
And if I was a team who could afford a high payroll I would indeed have one and an ace type guy is one type of guy I would spend. This year Cole, Bumgarner, and Strasburg would fit into that category while Wheeler Odorizzi Keuchel would be hard passes at more than 3 years if even that.
They aren’t sure about the price tag. Cole is a cute young award winning type pitcher. I think he goes west(he is from CA) but someone will give 200mil(or close to it)
Yes, he is adorable . But I don’t think that will factor in the Astros decision.
Too funny
You do realize spell check auto correct probably got the best of that post.
It’s all good. Clearly auto correct got me. But my point was still made.
Agreed. Just having a little fun.
Yankees drafted him out of high school and need a high-end starter.
Conmen…
Hal needs a third yacht more…
Jason Vargas will be much cheaper in free agency…
Haha
Cole will probably get $235MM once the dust settles. If the White Sox get him, look out.
Reinsdorf doesn’t play in those waters. He’s taking his $ with him.
I would rather have Baumgarner and maybe Wheeler rather than Cole
Why?
Cheaper contract than cole?
I understand your point.
MadBum is the next Jake Peavy.
No, Peavy was a fool’s gold macho blowhard. Bumgarner goes deep into games, is a winner and will be rejuvenated once on a contender/team on the rise.
MadBum is no longer Cy Young caliber. A lot more mileage on that arm than Cole. He’s peaked and injury prone. I’d gladly take Cole for an extra $10MM a year over MadBum.
Cole is not going to be an extra 10 a year. It’s going to be closer to 15 per year and at least 3 years longer. They arent even the same ballpark for a deal. Cole’s probably looking somewhere In the 215-250 million range. While I’d be shocked if anyone gave Bumgarner over 90 million. And I think 90 is too much to give him.
Peavy was a top end pitcher when the Sox acquired him. Injury problems made him fall off fast, however. He was pretty awful after that. That’s how I see MadBum at this point. We’ve seen this before with the Sox, and it never ends well.
Loathed Peavy/Dunn acquisitions many fellow fans liked at time. Agree to disagree on MadBum. Solid #2 quality for maybe 3yrs and back end rotation perhaps after is realistic. Falling off motorcycle debacle started couple forgettable years, but back to taking the ball. His ‘brand’ and Cole decision likely taking a while will help him get a 100+ mil guarantee from club that won’t wait. 5yrs/110 probably price of poker at least, if not a bit more.
I think the Astros rely on another, low key FA, like they did with Miley and Morton before him. Verlander, Grienke, McCullers, Whitley and Urquidy isn’t a bad rotation at all… I think Alvarez learns 1b at some point, to replace Yuli (who is already 36), Reddick is gone (my guess is an offseason trade after this year’s postseason) so Tucker can play. I think they try very hard to resign Springer after 2020. But Cole is a goner, to the highest bidder.
All that being said, I really wish Crane declined to comment. Let’s focus on the Rays.
i mean, why not try? just making a decent offer is a nice nod to the fans, and who knows, maybe he likes the HOU core and their pitching gurus.
It’s all PR. St. Louis trailed the Angels bid on Pujols knowing that he wouldn’t take it. smart move in so many ways.
For PR reasons, make an offer, then trail the next offer. He wont accept and they’ll be able to use the rejection as a PR move.
Houston is a smart clue. So is St. Louis.
rebuild coming soon to houston!
If Cole wants to go to the West Coast……don’t count out the Giants from making a solid bid….especially if MadBum moves on……Cole’s brother-in-law is Brandon Crawford……who he is very close with.
lol
Dray, mom says you need to
Clean your retainer
I don’t think the Astros would be interested. The bidding will take all winter and could be the biggest pitcher contract ever. That’s not how the Astros operate. They have zero bad contracts because Lunhow is risk averse.
Cole wants to play on a winning team. The Angels are years away from being one.
I’m willing to bet on Crane’s cryptic comment that the Astros will retain him.
Generational wealthy for your family overrides nostalgia. Cole will play for the team that offers the best contract.
Stephen Strasburg seems to be wanting out of his contract with Washington with 4 years and $100 million left on his contract. Could he be a viable option to replace Cole if we lose him to free agency?
I don’t see the Astros paying for a big $$ pitcher unless its Cole.
With Springer and Correa both set to hit the market the next 2 years, there is only so much money.
Can you imagine the outrage from the fans and local media if they bring in a huge contract with their World Series MVP, the soul of the team at a position without any viable replacements in the system unsigned and end up over the luxury tax threshhold?