It doesn’t take a baseball savant to figure out that Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg are the two best pitchers on the free-agent market. Cole is on a collision course with the largest contract a hurler has ever secured, a sure bet to outdo the $217MM Boston’s David Price received four years ago, while Strasburg could come within $20MM to $30MM of the $200MM mark in his own right. After those two aces, the starting market for free agents gets a lot less interesting, but that’s not to suggest it’s made up of nothing but back-end types. Quite the contrary, actually, as MLBTR forecasts that four other starters will land guarantees worth at least $50MM this offseason.
Former Met Zack Wheeler, longtime Giant Madison Bumgarner and ex-Dodger Hyun-Jin Ryu make up the remainder of the top five free-agent starters after Cole and Strasburg. Going by projected earning power, Wheeler is easily the most desirable of the trio. We’ve got him signing for $100MM over a half-decade, Bumgarner putting pen to paper on a four-year, $72MM accord and Ryu getting a three-year, $54MM contract. But you’re well within your rights to want Bumgarner or Ryu over Wheeler. Let’s take a closer look at the touted troika, and then you can vote on who’s the most appealing…
Zack Wheeler, RHP
Age: 30 in May
Qualifying offer? Yes
- Wheeler missed almost all of 2015-17 while dealing with arm issues, including a Tommy John procedure, but he has emphatically put those days behind him. He has been one of the most productive starters in baseball over the past two seasons, having tossed 180-plus innings of sub-4.00 ERA, four-plus-fWAR ball in each year. But it’s not just the bottom-line production that has put Wheeler on clubs’ radars. It’s also his elite fastball velocity, which clocked in at a personal-high 96.7 mph in 2019. His fastball and curveball spin were also better than average, per Statcast, while his average exit velocity against (86.2 mph; 90th percentile) and hard-hit rate against (32.2 percent; 82nd percentile) were near the top of the league.
Madison Bumgarner, LHP
Age: 30
Qualifying offer? Yes
- Bumgarner’s legendary postseason exploits are well-documented, but he hasn’t pitched a playoff game since 2016. Over the past couple years, Bumgarner’s days as a front-line starter have seemingly faded away. But he remains a major asset, someone just about any team would be happy to plug into its rotation. After a couple injury-shortened seasons, Bumgarner reestablished his durability in 2019 with 207 2/3 innings of 3.90 ERA/FIP ball and 8.8 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9. And Bumgarner’s fastball/curve spin rates were near the apex of the league this season, for what it’s worth.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP
Age: 33 by next season
Qualifying offer? No
- No one in this group did a better job preventing runs this year than Ryu, who’s an NL Cy Young finalist after recording a 2.32 ERA/3.10 FIP, 8.03 K/9 against 1.18 BB/9, and a 50.4 percent groundball rate across 182 2/3 innings. Terrific results are par for the course for Ryu – on a per-start basis, he may be the No. 1 pitcher here – but age and injury history threaten to hinder him to some degree on the open market. Ryu missed all of 2015 and then threw anywhere from 4 2/3 to 126 2/3 innings in each season from 2016-18.
There you have it, a quick rundown of the three premier free-agent starters not named Cole or Strasburg. Considering their histories, their qualifying offer statuses and their potential earning power, who’s the one you’d most like to sign?
(Poll link for app users)
It’s Ryu, don’t be stupid.
For me it’s MadBum, Ryu, then Wheeler, but if Ryu were 30, too, it would be an easy call.
This where I am at too. Granted I have Giants fan bias, but Wheeler and Ryu are injury prone. MadBum and Ryu have already learned to “pitch” without reliance on mostly a heater. Wheeler still needs to get there.
Of the three, MadBum may not be the most shiny, but he is likely the best ROI on this upcoming contract.
Ben you don’t know Wheeler.
Wheeler had one injury and has been way healthier than the other two recently.
my worry about ryu would be health, wheeler was tj and bum werefreak accidents but it seems like ryu has has a bunch of different issues go on over the last few years
If Ryu was 30 he would give you 200 innings total over the next two seasons. (At least you didn’t want him at 28 where he would give high 4 innings over the next two years.)
Agreed the best pitcher next season will be Ryu. A few years from now maybe not, but he’s still the best choice for today.
This trio will be grossly overpaid and Rick Porcello will be grossly underpaid, if MLBTR is projecting correctly.
I hope the A’s or Astros sign Porcello and finally uncover the consistent ace that is laying dormant just below the surface.
Porcello is no where near these guys lol.
Thats because he is way above. He has more CY Youngs than all three combined.
if Ryu get 3/54 He will be underpaid
If Ryu gets 3/54, he’s still a Dodger. Remember though. No compensation if you sign him. Not true with MadBum and Wheeler
Compensation comes back when someone else signs Ryu.
Porcello has more wins, innings pitched, and strikeouts in his career than all three of those guys. Also his Cy Young proves he can have great seasons. That is why I want him on a team with a good system and legit catcher so we can finally see his ceiling.
Hopefully 1/12 to the Astros, A’s or Rays.
He will probably get more. Madbum will definitely get more than protected. Wheeler probably less.
Shut up about porcello
No one cares
That was a while ago. He certainly didn’t look lkke CY pitcher last season.
He has more IP and K’s because his career started before any of them and more mileage is something that doesn’t help your case. Wins really?? Come to the 21st century please. Clamoring to a cy young he won 3 years ago is comical as it is but everyone knows how big of a joke that cy young was. Verlander got more 1st place votes and clearly had a better season. There is more than enough evidence to say that 2016 was an outlier for him.
Partially correct, more innings pitched and wins than Mad Bum, but fewer K’s. Porcello may indeed provide a great bargain after a down year, if he can bounce back.
By that logic, Barry Zito was worth the investment in 2007
Stick to bad pop songs.
Please….
This is where a DOWN vote is needed – 8 people up=voted but I bet 3-4x as many down-vote this if they could. From a pure stuff standpoint, I’d sign Zack Wheeler. If he can just put it all together, he has tremendous ace potential.
It would be stupid to not pick Wheeler
Bumgarner and not even close!
Next!
Right ? Not even close. Epic comment.
Actually I lied. I take Teheran over all three. Barf!
Lol, you havent watched baseball lately. You still watching those 7 year old DVD’s of Bumgarner pitching. Got news for you, he doesnt pitch like that anymore !! Almost 4 era this year !!
To being the worst of the 3. You’re correct.
uhh no. You guys are blinded by bumgarners stellar past – right now? Not the same guy, not the same velocity, not the same shut-down stuff. He’s not the intimidating force he once was. sad but true.
I guess if you’re a partial Giants fan.
He has the name and the past. He’s not more than a 3-4 now.
Bumgarner is way over rated at this point in his career. Hopefully the Braves don’t give him a big deal
A Braves fan hoping their team doesn’t sign a good SP to a big deal? Be happy if your team even signs a good SP period… knowing the FO it won’t happen.
I don’t want my budget constrained team stuck with a declining bumgarner. We have plenty of 4/5 rotation guys we don’t need to tie up valuable money on him. Both ryu and wheeler present higher upside for the actual money it will cost
honestly, madbum’s been over rated his whole career. without his post season runs u would’ve never called him an ace. his career comparison is probably andy pettite. i dont mean that to say he hasnt been good, because he(and andy) has been…but ace?nah. HoF? both i’d say are borderline
This guy^! Lol, “Madbum has been over rated his whole career” you’re joking right? Madbum has been a rock for the Giants his whole career! I bet you wish you had him on your team instead of the garbage the Phillies have been throwing out with zero results for how long? Hof all day for madbum!
@balk u do realize cole hamels carried the phillies on his back for an entire postseason right? did u also forget about the perfect game and no-no halladay had in 1 season?1 of those coming in the playoffs btw. bumgarner has had 4 seasons with an ERA under 3 and has a career WAR sitting at 37 right now. he’s been good but he’s far from the “unhittable ace” that most would have u believe he is. when’s the last time the guy was even a top 15 starting pitcher in the league?
Bumgarner has a better career era an whip then hamels, Lee and halladay.. But he’s no Ace tho right? Lol
again ur cherry picking stats from a guy who is just now entering the backend of his career and played 10+ seasons in 1 of the most hitter friendly parks in all of baseball
and it’s funny how u cherry pick the stats that are in madbum’s favor. when u adjust era for park and league(era+)all of halladay,hamels, and lee have been better than bumgarner
Pretty sure Madbum has more rings than the Phillies entire franchise
‘Nuff said
how is that “nough said”? i was unaware he was the only player on their roster for those WS victories. that’s like saying andy pettite was the reason for the 90’s yankees dynasty. also madbum’s mid 4 ERA in the nlds and nlcs certainly is the sole reason why they won the world series, right?RIGHT?
You do realize that Cole sucks now, right?
That’s an insult to Andy P! Consistent 2 or 3 for over a decade, always helping championship odds.
Dude you’re a fool if you think he was overrated his whole career lol. He’s pitched in the 2s almost every season and has had premium control while getting almost a k per inning. 200+ inn almost every season. He’s a major competitor and for extra he can hit pretty descent too. He’s no ace but he’s definitely a fortified #2-3 starter. Whatever team signs him will get their money’s worth that’s for sure.
@pickbritches he hasnt had an ERA under 3 most of his career. he’s pitched 11 seasons now and has had 4 seasons under 3 and that’s with callimg san fran(1 of the most pitcher friendly parks in the league)his home park. if u read the post again, it clearly states he has been good but he’s not this bonafide “ace” that he’s made out to be…and defnitely not anymore
Ok he’s had 5 out of 11 in 2s 1 3.00 and his career era is 3.13 that’s pretty nasty. His career home is 2.72 and road 3.56. That’s not bad at all and it’s not because of pitchers park it’s the reason it’s that low. Alot of pitchers do better at home in front of their fans. Guarantee if he goes to Atlanta pencil him winning 18-20 and era in mid 3s
Other than sale n Kershaw no other lefty has career era better than bumgarner with at least 1000 career inn
no he’s had 4 seasons with an era under 3. again, im not saying he’s been a bad pitcher by any means but he hasnt but he had 4 very good seasons and the rest have simply been good to average(his last 2). he’s also declined significantly the last 3 years now. he’s got awhile to go before he’s a surefire HOFer. again i’ll say this,andy pettite is his career comparison and pettite had lengevity. we’ll seeif madbum can do that
no he’s had 4 seasons with an era under 3. again, im not saying he’s been a bad pitcher by any means but he hasnt but he had 4 very good seasons and the rest have simply been good to average(his last 2). he’s also declined significantly the last 3 years now. he’s got awhile to go before he’s a surefire HOFer. again i’ll say this,andy pettite is his career comparison and pettite had lengevity. we’ll seeif madbum can do that. also, there’s a pretty huge difference between a mid 2 era and mid 3 era. look at his era+’s throughout his career even and that tells u he’s benefitted greatly from pitching in san fran. good for him for taking advantage of that
If you count 11 seasons then you need to count his 1st year era under 3. If you don’t count it then he has 4 out of 10 seasons.
And Andy pettite? Lol c’mon he’s been way better than him. 1.35 whip 3.85era? Heck bumgarners about to catch him in strikeouts with quite a few less years and innings. Also he’s got better control than pettite. Just because he’s a lefty and throws 91-92 and is good for 200 inn is no reason to compare to pettite. He’s a much better pitcher then he was
if u want to count 4 games pitched and 1 start as an era under 2 more power to u. still doesnt change the favt that pettite had nesrly double the WAR(60.2 vs 31) in only 7 more seasons in his career in a much tougher hitting environment and has had just as much postseason success and solely cherry picking 1 stat(k’s) doesnt change the fact that he’s a contemporary of bumgarner
pettite career ERA+ 117, 3.74FIP–bumgarner career ERA+120, 3.52FIP. that includes all of pettite’s backside of his career and none of bumgarner’s thus far
More than 1 stat man. —era, k p/9 , k:bb ratio, opp ba, whip, hits per9 etc.. only reason pettite won so many games is because of playing for NYY.
i just gave u arguably the 2 most important stats when it comes to pitching and neither 1 of them was wins which since u brought that up u act like the giants didnt have a damn good offense when they were bi-annually winning world series’
hell, pettite had a better age 40 season than madbum’s 2019(age 29 season). 3.74ERA vs 3.90ERA, 107ERA+ vs 107ERA+, 3.70FIP vs 3.90FIP
Please stop lol.. just cuz he gets sh!1t done in post season and has 3 rings and poor Philadelphia couldn’t do it with Hamels, lee and halladay. Don’t be mad bub lol. It’ll be aight fella. I’m sure glad y’all got Harper though lol. Talk about overrated
so because u cant backup ur argument with facts u wanna try to attack my team which hasnt been brought up by me other than to defend myself against u butthurt madbum apologists who cant accept the fact that he’s not as great as you all think he is. being comparable to andy pettite isnt near as bad is you all are making it out to be but u wanna get pissy bc you thought he was the 2nd coming of jesus christ and clayton kershaw rolled in a ball
and for the record,harper has 3 less seasons than bumgarner and they’re nearly identical is WAR so yea he’s better than ur “postseason hero” too
for the record, as good as bumgarner has been in the world series he sure is garbage when it comes to the nlds and nlcs where he has an ERA over 4 in both series in his career. at least he’s comparable to kershaw in that regard
Ok, I have to chime in here because it’s too tempting not too. Until Madbum gets busted for roids too, Pettite’s numbers are a fraud.
Petite did roids in Houston, when Clemens talked him into it. It never influenced his postseason career. Anything else is wild, unfounded speculation. It’s more logical to speculate that Ortiz did roids. How else could a fat 40-year-old with notoriously bad feet lead all the young bucks of baseball in doubles? Lots of doubles takes speed. Not bad, career-ending feet. So riddle me that, bozo. And tell me how that same fat, 40-year-old dude with notoriously bad feet led all the young bucks of the AL in RBIs and OPS??? Get off your high horse on roids. It was rampant and it still is. Guys aren’t still doing PEDs because it’s high risk. They’re doing it because it’s low risk and high reward. Dozens of guys are doing it and only a few are getting caught. Why? Because the testing regimen is still porous and it can be gamed. Obviously.
Ryu is the best of the three but not if he can’t stay healthy. Wheeler next. Then Man Bum. Your opinion may vary.
Wheeler is healthy and the best sign of the three. I’m more confident when he’s on the mound than Syndergaard. I’m not saying he’s better than Noah but more consistent. Going to hurt like hell to lose him.
Bumgarner or bust !!!
Healthy Wheeler is the best of the 3.
Ha-ha. No. Roughly a a league-average pitcher over his entire career. He doesn’t even belong in this group.
He’d be better with a solid defensive team.
Yeah if Wheeler has had a roughly average career we have different definitions of average. He had a rough start after coming back from TJ and that’s about it. He’s been a solid #3 starter (at the least)throughout his career.
You don’t know Wheeler. You can’t look at a star sheet and crap an answer. He’s a different pitcher since coming back now healthy with Tommy John a memory.
Wheeler’s ERA+ of 100 career and 102 this year is the definition of league average. Ryu’s ERA+ of 179 this year looks just a tiny bit better, which is why he’s in the running for the CY and Wheeler is not. Wheeler gets a lot of votes because of his time zone, Bumgarner for his past glories. Statistically it isn’t even very close. And that’s pretty much how this has always worked.
I’m trying to take a nap but keep getting woken up by the sound of crickets.
If you’re going to base your argument solely on ERA+ well then you win buddy. Congratulations. The West coast bias is in play again! Those poor California boys don’t get their due. It has nothing to do with the fact that season was the first time he tossed 150 innings since 2014.
if all three had perfect health, then Ryu would be the easy call.
Bumgarner is the best for me.
Lots of variables here. Does health/injury scare you? Would your rotation be better served with a lefty? Is age a major factor? Does the QO play a major role in your decision? What is your team’s expected payroll or does it matter? Are you looking for an ace or is a 2 or 3 more fitting?
It’s easy as a fan to just demand your team get the top player available, but most FO’s simply won’t go that route.
Yes.
If healthy it’s HJR all the way.
Bumgarner, Ryu, Wheeler in that order. Ryu only loses out because of age.
Wheeler has the most upside obviously. You gotta love MadBum’s durability and post season experience. Ryu was a CY finalist and wont require draft pick compensation. For my money, I’m taking wheels.
You are in the East and you see Wheeler. I’m reading comments from West coast fans that are looking at a star sheet, don’t really know him, and are looking at stats skewed by earlier Tommy John that took extra long to get back to 100%. He’s better than he’s ever been. As a Mets fan it’s going to kill me to lose him. After deGrom I’ve been most comfortable when he’s on the hill, even over Thor. Not saying he’s better than Syndergaard but he’s been more consistent. More mature pitcher than Syndergaard with outstanding stuff.
Is this a joke? I’d take Bumgarner over Kershaw! Ryu and Wheeler haven’t done jack squat when it matters.
It’s easily Bumgarner.
Your a joke !! Bumgarner !?? The guy almost had a 4 era this year !! His best days are over! Ryu on the other hand is a Cy young finalist this year !! Obviously a 70 win Giants fan ! Lol
Ryu is 33 and has been hurt. Dodgers had to give him extra days off because he was declining where Madbum was improving after the break.
MadBum overall over the past few years has been mediocre and unhealthy. even with the expectation of perfect health going forward, its too late to save MadBum’s past ability.
Didn’t people say that about Verlander a few years ago?
verlander’s era in his “done” season was 3.36 and ERA+ 131. that’s still significantly better than what bumgarner just put up without even having to look into any other stats. not saying madbum cant bounce back or even repeat this years stats but he’s taken a step back each of the now last 3 seasons
In 2017, Verlander pitched to a 3.82 ERA in Detroit. Then he went to Houston, took some magic pills, and pitched 1.06. Like a 70% improvement. His WHIP (.128/.65) changed dramatically, too. Then Cole comes along and BOOM a 4.26 ERA drops to 2.88!
We’re told it was coaching.
Two borderline #2/#3 pitchers (Verlander, Cole) became top of the majors #1 studs overnight just by moving to TX! Overnight sensations! Who knew? The rest was history.
his commulative era in 2017 was 3.36 and his era+ was 131 both are better than what bumgarner just put up in 2019. u could say he “took a magic pill” or whatever u want to call it, fact of the matter is u compared madbum’s 2019 to verlander’s 2017 and clearly verlander had a better season in the tougher pitching league. as for cole, he changed his whole pitching philosophy when he got trade. the pirates wanted him to use his 2 seamer more frequently and pitch to contact. the astros let him use his 4 seamer and overpower pitches to become the strikeout artist he is today
Oops. Correction. Verlander’s WHIP went from 1.28 in Detroit to .65 in Houston.
Hey Snotrocket (your name shows your maturity) Baumgardner is NO Verlander!!!
I’m not going to insult you, like you did me, however my opinion is still the same. Out of these three, I’d take Madison Bumgarner on the mound, game 7 in the World Series.
Even over Kershaw.
Anybody over Kershaw !!
Well, Braves fans never have to worry about that because they will never make it past round one. Which brings up a question why I even want the Braves to go after him when they will not advance past 1 playoff series?!
Clayton Kershaw is a generational phenom who’s at the backside of his career. He put up numbers we’ll probably never see again. A unanimous 1st ballot hall of fame player…..Madison Bumgarner is not a Hall If Fame candidate. Bumgarner had post season success years ago but other than that , he’s never even sniffed a Cy Young Award. He is also entering the back side of his career. He’s maybe a number #3 on a good staff
Bumgarner is absolutely a Hall of Famer. I agree with you about Kershaw, however, I’d take Bum’s rings over Kershaw’s regular season accomplishments.
Back side of career? Kershaw’s back would disagree with you.
madbum is sitting at 37 career WAR right now, he’s got a ways to go before he’s HOF caliber
You’re delusional
Bumgarner will NEVER be in the HOF….Kershaw goes in unanimous decision on 1st ballot. Bumgarner is a good LHP. Not great. Good. His only claim to fame is that he had postseason success like a half a decade ago. Lol
Grow up
lol your a joke
Totally agree with you. Bumgarner is a 3-time World Champ in this decade. Ryu is like a 7-time loser and the 4-Wheeler is from the little apple instead of Glamis. Kershaw to San Diego straight-up for Hosmer, Myers and a RP. We won’t let Kershaw pitch in October—he’ll just get us there.
STFU
truely enlightened comment
That is the joke.
I like Wheeler, he is the youngest and has the most upside. Mad Bum has showed decreased velocity. They are very close, all are great second tier pitchers or a 2/3 type starter.
Ryu on a two year deal. Much more affordable than the other two and also is a left handed precision pitcher who doesn’t rely on his fastball. Would be a great addition to most rotations, but think he’ll draw real interest from San Diego, Boston and maybe the Giants.
I like this! Also no draft pick comp…
Ryu, 2y/36-38m, 3rd yr team opt/$2m buyout. I wouldn’t mind the Angels signing him after signing Cole, but not as their primary FA signing.
White Sox would be smart to sign Madbum. Having a lefty starter with that postseason resume and experience would be great for the young staff. They can easily afford him too. But my gut says Keuchel or Wheeler since they haven’t given up on Rodon even though i personally believe he doesn’t have the strength to be a starter. Long relief or closer would be better.
White Sox won’t even sniff a playoff spot.
REEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
I’ve totaled the amount of White Sox games given to position and pitchers who arguably did not belong in the majors last season. 423. Cut that number in half, which they will, and they win 90.
Pay attention, try it sometime.
423 games given to position players and pitchers who dont belong in the majors LAST YEAR? how did they manage over 2 seasons worth of games in 1 season?
Angels Dynasty ??
As long as Artie owns them the only joke will be in the fans.
Wheeler has “emphatically” put his injury history behind him, but Ryu has not?
Interesting.
Wheeler had one good half since injury, and otherwise was as mediocre as MadBum. its an likely bet that Ryu will be more injured in the next few years, but its about bang for buck. would you rather have Buchholz 2013 or a 4.00 pitcher for a full year? that could be what we are talking about here.
Yeah he had a 1.68 ERA in the second half last season. He had a 2.83 ERA in the second half this season. It took two seconds to look that up and I didn’t even bother to go back any further than that. I can understand if you’re not hopping on the Wheeler hype train but I can’t fathom why we need to make things up that are not true. Let’s go ahead and try not to discredit what he’s done to make your argument better. He’s been a good pitcher who has turned it on in the 2nd half the last 2 seasons.
wheeler pairs with g. cole to form an 1-2 punch in angels dynasty.
Stop teasing, just make it happen!
Game 7, World Series, who you giving the ball?
To me it’s easily Madison Bumgarner. The man never complained even once about being underpaid.
Have a great year in 2020 MadBum!
I ain’t giving to Bumgarner.lol …that was like a million years ago. Dude is a 4.00 era guy now
Yeah, Bumgarner wasn’t great last year. But he was great in all the big games that actually mattered, aka the games in which the Giants were within 2 or 3 of the WC back in July/August.
Pitched a shutout against the Phillies who we were behind in the WC race at the time. Point being, the dude steps up when it matters, and has for his entire career. If you don’t want that, I don’t know what you’d want.
Really my team ( Yankees ) gave Bumgarner a beat down at Oracle. I watched face the Dodgers in Los Angeles and it was a humiliating experience. They destroyed him. I think he gave up 6 earned and didn’t get past the 3rd inning. He’s not great
Bumgarner. Hoping the Braves can get it done. Maybe bump up the AAV and shorten the deal…3/60. I believe the return to a contender could bring out the best in MadBum. Would be nice to see some of his killer instincts rub off on the young Braves starters. Light the fire in them, harness it and pitch with some confidence!
there will be free agent ban for atl. if not players will not go there.
Why would there be a ban? And why would players not want to go to one of the top 5-6 contenders for next year? Is this Tony Clark?!
He thinks that bc of what the Braves GM said players wont sign with ATL..
My sentiments exactly..,
Madbum is on a downhill slide, Wheeler can’t ever realize his potential. Ryu doesn’t belong in this group- he belongs in the Cole/ Stras group. Lowest ERA in baseball- almost half of these other two. ONLY negative on Ryu is injuries and he is one year removed from those.
Mets fans – havent been following wheeler…why dont I want him? recall reading lots of comments about him
No reason not to want him, except that he’ll be expensive and I could see teams not wanting to pay him because a lot of his value is in his pure stuff (and hoping he can tap into it) rather than his results. But even as is he was very solid for us once he got healthy 2 years ago, and that’s with an embarrassing defense behind him.
Why don’t you? You absolutely do! Killing me to lose him. It took longer than average to return to form from Tommy John. But now he has and he has more than returned to form he’s better than ever. After drGrom he’s been the most consistent reliable starter for us including Syndergaard. This past season if you’re able to break down his stats from sayJuly out.
i’d say ryu will have the best stats next year(although probably in less innings), but wheeler will produce the most out of their respective contracts. i dont see madbum as anything more than a #3 pitcher from here on out
All will be overpaid
Wheeler. Ryu, Bumgarner… out
I’m not even a Braves fan, but I hope Bumgarner signs there.
I’d love to take a trip to Atlanta and watch him pitch.
Have a great, safe weekend folks.
Nice take. Have a great weekend as well
For me, it’s completely dependent on the team. Madbum may be the best fit, for example, for the Braves. He can be a steady, calming presence for all the young guys coming through their system.
Wheeler may be the best fit for teams looking for a true number one that miss out or can’t afford Cole and Stras. Wheeler, in my opinion has the highest ceiling, and could develop into a true ace.
Ryu, imo, would be a great fit for the Yankees, Reds, Dodgers, or Nationals, teams that could use another top-flight rotation piece, but still have the depth to still be okay in case of an injury.
Everybody in the comments is saying Bumgarner, but right now, Wheeler leads the poll by a healthy margin. All you guys who voted Wheeler – weigh in. Why is he better?
FWIW, I’d gladly have any of these guys in my starting rotation.
If you’re taking wheeler it’s because of his upside and the arm. He has the big fastball. He’s played on the team that you know isn’t one of the most analytically oriented or even remotely average defensively.
Admittedly that’s still a gamble. Ryu does it with pinpoint control and deception. That could age well. Bumgarner could still be a highly productive pitcher deep into his 30’s like a Greinke. He’s played in an extremely friendly home park his entire career and his home/road splits aren’t extremely encouraging. But you know he’s Bumgarner. The guy who will go out and give you 200+ innings a year and he obviously Has an unmatched track record.
There could be a point where you’re paying for potential from Wheeler that never fully materializes. But to me anyway when you look at the stuff I can understand why you’d pick Wheeler on a multi year deal.
Would not have a problem with anyone picking any of the three though. I could see the rationale for each.
very well said
While i like Bumgarner he has a ton of mileage on that arm and has great durability he has slowly trending downward.
Wheeler has been getting better and i think has a higher upside. He is a power pitcher and damn near every one of them have had tj surgery which includes one of the top pitcher in Strasburg. He just happened to have his earlier in his career where Wheeler had it later. If he had it sooner he may have been more in the conversation with Strasburg than MadBum and Ryu. If the mets had any semblance of a defense im sure the era would be lower.
I would take the guy with 3 rings, a history of legendary performance when the pressure is at its highest, and the one who is easily the most menacing of the three. You don’t sign a guy like madbum for the regular season. You sign him because you want to win in the playoffs.
but how much of madbum’s postseason heroics have been blown out of the water? he’s been terrific in the world series but if u look at his nlds and nlcs numbers they’re both mid 4 ERA’s
Ryu, but he’s not getting the length that these two do. heavily insured as well.
Madbum for sure. He’s the most consistent, best competitor, and has the track record. Ryu is descent and had a great year but his injuries in the past would be a huge concern on a multi year deal. I’d do a 1 year deal on him. Wheeler also is injury prone. He’s pitched like 2 full seasons and hasn’t been consistent. He’s prob got the best stuff but just can’t count on him on a multi year deal either.
Pickle c’mon if you don’t know a lot about someone don’t preach. Wheeler is not injury prone. Health he’s the least risk by far of the 3. He had Tommy John, took a.little longer to get back to form than average but now that he is he’s set a new form! He’s back 2 years from it and that’s the only injury you’re referring to. Damn on Mets staff almost everyone has had it in the past. deGrom, Matz, Wheeler, it’s almost a prerequisite!
How many times as he been on the DL since he’s been in the bigs?
I voted Bumgarner, but only because lefties like him age well even when they lose velocity, etc. Wheeler is a high risk/high reward guy – more of a gamble.
Sorry John I don’t mean to sound nasty but you don’t obviously know much about Wheeler. Off the 3 he is absolutely the least risk by far. No contest. Are you on West coast?
It’s Ryu, because he’s the lowest financial risk. They all have their red flags, but if things go south you’re done with Ryu after 2022 whereas you have Bum for another year or Wheeler til Jesus comes back. Take recency bias into account and Ryu is clearly the best one to sign.
There’s no flags remaining anymore on Wheeler. Of the three he’s definitely the best bet of durability going forward. He did have Tommy John it’s behind him, guys never been better. No such thing as a sure bet with health especially with a pitcher but of the three Wheeler is definitely the closest to it.
Wheeler and it is not particularly close. Wheeler is coming off 2 very strong seasons with poor defensive catchers. Ryu is good but he is 3 years older with worse stuff than wheeler. Bumgarner’s already in decline phase and his deal could easily be worse than arrieta’s/shields was
Sdsuphilip that’s a real accurate summary you wrote.
Met-Jet2020 and sdsuphilip,please stop selling Wheeler to all these other teams. I want him to resign and you guys are just raising his price. my bet is that Wheeler is going to sign with Atlanta but I’d still love to keep him on the Mets.
Worse stuff? Ryu had the lowest walk rate of any starting pitcher, and he’s not a flyball guy. That plays better in a hitter’s park, and of course requires a good defensive infield.
Wheeler is the power pitcher with high heat, so I can see the appeal there. Thing is, I’ve seen when he’s off he gets rocked hard. No life in the pitches, little movement., and he doesn’t adjust in-game like other pitchers do. Maybe takes a guy like Matt Blake or Brett Strom to figure him out
1)Bumgarner2)Wheeler
3) Ryu
And I formatted it like this on purpose
I’d take Ryu if I could get him on a two or maybe three year deal. No compensation helps.
That’s what he and most pitchers are likely to get at age 33. I’d guess three years at around $70M, though part of that could be in the form of performance bonuses. Hope he stays with the Dodgers but certainly not counting on it. Fans outside of the Pacific time zone don’t know how good he is. They think someone who is half as good is twice as good because he pitches in New York. So typical.
Ryu doesn’t pitch enough innings. It’s MadBum then Ryu but Wheeler has more upside and Ryu will regress.
Antecedent probability: Best predictor of the future is the past
using the crudest proxy, IP over the last 3 years:
Wheeler > Bumgarner > Ryu.
Looking at pitching metrics (FIP ERA+), last 3 years
Ryu > Bumgarner >Wheeler
Shake it all up: it’s a 3 way tie, if you want to win in 2020
If you want to win in 2021 or 2022, take wheeler (based on IP alone)
It appears the narrative is that it’s a foregone conclusion Wheeler becomes an ace with whomever he ends up signing with. Granted, his underlying stats and elite velocity provide support that it could very well happen–but I think it’s “sketchy” to project him as the next G. Cole–of which I’ve seen expressed in numerous articles/comment boards.
Ryu is only at 20% right now? Wow, I thought he’d at least be above Bumgarner. As far as current talent goes I think he’s the best of the three, the man has insanely low BB and ERA all the time. He’s not a power pitcher but finesse usually means the guy lasts longer (theoretically). The fact that he doesn’t have a QO and that he is likely to have the shortest contract will make him appealing to a lot of teams.
Wheeler has nasty stuff and is called the “poor man’s Cole”. If his talent and that fastball get fully tapped into, then he’s a 180 IP 210K sort of man. I’ve predicted he goes to the Astros (seems like such a fit) but if Cashman signs him I won’t be horribly butt hurt over it, for sure.
Bumgarner is the postseason ace of aces, but he’s nowhere near what he was five years ago. Strange saying that since he’s only turned 30 but it feels like he’s been here forever. The guy is still a workhorse but I fear the statistical results and the fact that he’s a flyball pitcher. Take him out of a pitcher’s park and that might get ugly unless he refines his approach.
Of the three I’d choose Ryu first with Wheeler as my fallback
Thanks for getting it about Ryu. He remains a sleeper because of where he plays and because he hasn’t got flashy velocity. The attitude I am hearing about him reminds me of what was said about Kuroda a few years back. Hardly anybody knew the pitcher because he played in a Western division. No way he was ever going to be as good if he went to the big, bad ALE. Turned out he was even better there, which came as no surprise at all to Dodger fans.
Ryu has been the real deal. I voted for him. He can command a 2yr plus option or a 3-yr and he deserves it. Wheeler might be Eovaldi-lite or AJ Burnett-lite. He is a risky 5-yr deal and so is Bumgarner who’s battled injury as of late.
It’s a tough call but I’m going Bumgarner, Ryu, Wheeler. I think Wheeler is a power pitcher plain and simple, Ryu is the best overall pitcher (low walk and HR rates) but Bumgarner has the best durability – aside from his dirtbike accident he’s been really consistent. He’s adapted well as a pitcher despite decline in fastball velocity and has the best chance to provide quality innings throughout the contract, and his postseason record speaks for itself.