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Free Agent Faceoff

Free Agent Faceoff: Jose Quintana vs Andrew Heaney

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The starting pitching options available in free agency have begun to dwindle with the start of Spring Training less than a month away, but a few interesting options still remain available. Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta are the top names still available in free agency at this point, though they figure to come with a high annual salary in the case of Flaherty and cost their new club draft capital as a qualified free agent in the case of Pivetta. Meanwhile, future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer stands alone at the top of the market for veterans likely to accept one year deals after Walker Buehler, Charlie Morton, and Justin Verlander all found homes earlier this winter.

Overlooked in this free agent class, however, is a pair of solid mid-rotation lefties. Veterans Andrew Heaney and Jose Quintana have garnered little if any buzz in the rumor mill to this point, but at this late stage in the offseason they stand out among the remaining crop of starters as some of the more reliable options still available. Ranked #25 and #31 on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, Heaney and Quintana figure to be among the best arms available for clubs looking to bolster their rotation that don’t have room in the budget for a player like Flaherty or Pivetta. Even Scherzer could land a higher annual salary.

Quintana and Heaney have a number of striking similarities. From 2019 to 2021, both players posted an ERA north of 5.00 in less than 300 innings of work as they struggled to stay healthy and effective. Both players then appeared to take a major step forward in 2022, however, and since then have proven to be a reliable mid-rotation option despite occasional injury issues persisting. In Heaney’s case, his 2021 breakout came as a member of the Dodgers. While he was limited to just 72 2/3 innings of work due to injuries that year, he was dominant when healthy enough to pitch with a 3.10 ERA (130 ERA+) and an incredible 35.5% strikeout rate.

That breakout led Heaney to sign a two-year deal with the Rangers in free agency and, though he hasn’t quite reached that level of elite production since then, he’s managed to stay healthy and provide solid results to Texas. In 307 1/3 innings for the Rangers over the past two years, the lefty has pitched to a roughly league average 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) with a 4.34 FIP. His strikeout rate has dipped to just 23.2% during his time in Dallas, but even in spite of that, he’s shown positive signs for the future. That’s particularly true of the 2024 season, when he cut his walk rate from 9.4% to a career-best 5.9% while his barrel rate dipped from 10.2% down to just 8.3%. Those improvements in batted ball results and walk rate allowed Heaney to post a 3.95 SIERA last year, good for 32nd among starters with 160 innings of work last year and sandwiched between Seth Lugo and Sean Manaea on the leaderboard.

By contrast, Quintana continued to get above average results this year with a 3.75 ERA (105 ERA+) in 31 starts for the Mets but started to show troubling signs in terms of peripherals. Quintana struck out just 18.8% of opponents for the second year in a row in 2024, but saw his walk rate climb to 8.8% while his barrel rate crept up to 6.7%. All that left Quintana with a 4.57 SIERA that ranks just 53rd among qualified starters. Father Time is also on Heaney’s side, as he’s roughly two-and-a-half years younger than Quintana, who will celebrate his 36th birthday later this month. Of course, that aforementioned barrel rate is still better than Heaney’s figure from 2024 and his career-best 47.4% groundball rate suggests he may be able to continue limiting damage and outperforming his peripherals going forward.

It’s also worth noting that Quintana has the stronger overall track record than Heaney. Although he experienced a blip in productiveness from 2019 to 2021, he had seven above-average seasons under his belt prior to that and since then has posted an excellent 3.39 ERA (118 ERA+) with a 3.74 FIP in 411 2/3 innings of work. Though he’s struck out just 19.4% of opponents in that time, that ERA is tied for 22nd among qualified starters since the start of the 2022 campaign, on par with the likes of Dylan Cease and George Kirby. While it seems unlikely that Quintana would be able to replicate that elite production going forward without improving on his strikeout and walk numbers, it’s possible his grounder-heavy profile could work quite well in front of a strong defense.

If your club was looking to add a veteran southpaw to its rotation, which would you prefer? Would you value Heaney’s relative youth and stronger peripherals in his platform campaign? Or would you overlook Quintana’s age and concerning peripherals in favor of his more consistent track record and knack for keeping the ball on the ground? Have your say in the poll below:

Free Agent Faceoff: Kenley Jansen vs. David Robertson

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The free agent market for relief pitching has begun to heat up in recent days, with right-handers Chris Martin, Andrew Kittredge, and Jeff Hoffman all coming off the board. While top free agent relievers like Tanner Scott, Carlos Estévez, and Kirby Yates have gotten the majority of attention in the rumor mill of late, there’s a pair of veteran relief options available who between the two of them have more than 30 years of late inning experience on their resumes: right-handers Kenley Jansen and David Robertson. Both have plenty of closing experience and are on the wrong side of 35 but have remained effective even as they’ve aged into the latter stages of their careers, making them particular interesting options for clubs in need of bullpen help but with a preference for short-term deals.

Of the two, Jansen has the more storied career as a potential future Hall of Famer. The four-time All-Star and longtime Dodgers closer has taken a step back from his peak years in L.A., but his 447 career saves rank fourth all-time and he remains among the league’s better relief options. He departed the Dodgers following the 2021 season and has pitched for the Braves and Red Sox in the three years since then, posting a solid 3.42 ERA (126 ERA+) with a 3.26 FIP, a 29.9% strikeout rate, and an 8.9% walk rate while converting 97 of his 112 and save opportunities. He also boasts a dominant postseason resume, with a career 2.20 ERA, a 37.6% strikeout rate, and 20 saves across ten playoff runs.

The 37-year-old Jansen’s 3.44 ERA and 3.30 FIP during his two years in Boston were both solid, but his strikeout rate (28.1%) trended downward while his walk rate (9.2%) has begun to tick up. Most concerning, Jansen has begun allowing far more damaging contact. After posting a barrel rate of just 5.8% and a 25.7% hard-hit rate from the beginning of Statcast data in 2015 to the end of the 2022 season, those same figures have ballooned to 9.1% and 36.5% since he arrived in Boston. That’s left him with a 4.30 xFIP that’s more in line with middle relief options like Phil Maton and Héctor Neris than what’s expected of an elite closer, though other metrics like SIERA (3.62) are more favorable.

Robertson, meanwhile, has split his time between setup work (196 career holds) and closing (177 saves) over his 16-year career. He saved just two games for the Rangers last year and last saved more than 20 games in a season back in 2016. He’s the older of the pair and will turn 40 in April. That’s not to say Robertson is without his advantages, however. After a trio of lost seasons due to injury from 2019 to 2021, Robertson has reclaimed his place among the game’s top relievers with numbers that largely outshine Jansen over the past three years.

While bouncing between the Cubs, Phillies, Mets, Marlins, and Rangers over the past three years, Robertson has posted a 2.82 ERA and 3.24 FIP while striking out 31.1% of opponents in 201 innings of work. His 10.5% walk rate during that time leaves something to be desired and is more than a full percentage point higher than Jansen’s, but Robertson delivered a much more robust platform season with a 3.00 ERA and a 2.65 FIP in 72 innings for the Rangers as compared to Jansen’s 3.29 ERA and 3.00 FIP in 54 2/3 innings for Boston. Robertson’s also been more flexible in terms of his role over the years; he’s shown comfort both closing and acting as a setup man, while more than 80% of Jansen’s career innings have come in the ninth inning or later.

If you were running a team in need of late-inning relief help this winter, which veteran righty would you rather have for 2025? Would you prefer the younger Jansen with his elite postseason performance and lengthy track record of success in the ninth inning? Or would you opt for Robertson’s stronger peripheral numbers, flexibility to work outside of the ninth inning, and excellent platform season? Have your say in the poll below:

Free Agent Faceoff: Justin Turner / J.D. Martinez

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Just before the holidays, the hot stove roared to life for the first base and DH market as a host of players all came off the board over the course of a matter of days. Josh Naylor and Nathaniel Lowe changed hands via trade, while Christian Walker, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Joc Pederson, Andrew McCutchen, and Josh Bell all inked deals in free agency. The boom in this corner of the market even impacted depth pieces such as Darick Hall and Matt Mervis, both of whom found new homes in minor league free agency and via trade respectively. Even after that run of deals coming together, however, plenty of interesting first base and DH options remain available. Pete Alonso is of course the top free agent first baseman available this winter, while Anthony Rizzo and Mark Canha are among the more interesting bounce-back candidates who could still be had on the open market.

Among the most notable options available at this point in the winter for those looking to fill a hole at DH are a pair of aging right-handed bats, both of whom are World Series champions with decorated resumes: Justin Turner and J.D. Martinez. Both players appear to be in the twilight of their careers but managed to put up above-average offensive results last year and are looking to extend their careers in free agency this winter. Those similarities come with noticeable differences in their overall profiles that give each certain advantages over the other, creating an interesting contrast between the pair.

Turner, who celebrated his 40th birthday back in November, is a free agent for the third consecutive offseason. The longtime Dodgers stalwart was among the game’s premier pure hitters during his time in Los Angeles, and in nine seasons with the club he slashed an excellent .296/.375/.490 (136 wRC+). No one should expect that level of production from Turner at this stage of his career, but even though his days of All-Star appearances and top-10 finishes in MVP voting appear to be behind him he’s remained a consistent and solidly above-average hitter in two seasons since departing his longtime club. He’s split time between the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Mariners since leaving the Dodgers, and in that time has slashed .268/.349/.422 with a wRC+ of 116 while accruing 2.2 fWAR.

Digging a little deeper, Turner gets to his production in largely the same way he always has, with a high-contact approach and strong plate discipline. He’s struck out at an identical 17.6% clip in each of the last two seasons, just a hair behind Juan Soto’s 17.5% strikeout rate. In 2024, he paired that with an excellent 10.9% walk rate that placed him alongside Carlos Santana and Yordan Alvarez in a tie for the 27th-highest walk rate among qualified hitters this year. That’s not to say Turner is flawless as a hitter, of course; the veteran has never been much of a power threat, and 2024 saw him hit just 11 homers as his ISO dropped to .124. That was the 16th-lowest figure among qualified hitters last year and is Turner’s worst finish in the category since he arrived in L.A. back in 2014. His 4.6% barrel rate and 32.5% Hard-Hit rate were similarly bottom-16 figures in the majors this year.

As for Martinez, the six-time All-Star spent his peak years in Detroit and Boston with a brief sojourn to Arizona in the middle. From 2014 to 2019, only Mike Trout and Aaron Judge topped Martinez’s 151 wRC+ as he slashed an incredible .307/.373/.581 with 207 homers in 816 games. Of course, those peak years are now long behind him. Since the start of the 2021 season, Martinez has slashed .268/.334/.486 (122 wRC+) with noticeable peaks and valleys in his production based primarily on his power output. The slugger mashed more homers (33) in 2023 than he did in the 2022 and ’24 seasons combined (32), and depending on his power output can oscillate from a roughly replacement-level bat to a slugger still worthy of an All-Star appearance.

With that being said, Martinez’s plate discipline pales in comparison to that of Turner. Over the past two seasons, Martinez has struck out at a hefty 29.8% clip while walking a solid but unspectacular 8.5% of the time. It’s also worth noting that, while he’s three years younger than Turner is, he provides even less defensive value than his 40-year-old contemporary. Turner played in 139 games and started in the field for just 44 of them in 2024 (almost exclusively at first base), but you’d have to go all the way back to 2018 to find a year where Martinez started that many games in a season.

It should also be noted that Martinez’s platform season is far worse than that of Turner’s, as he hit just .235/.320/.406 (108 wRC+) in 120 games with the Mets and started losing playing time to deadline pickup Jesse Winker late in the year. While he posted a strong .417 on-base percentage in a limited role during the club’s postseason run, he hit for surprisingly little power with no extra-base hits. Turner, meanwhile finished strong down the stretch with the Mariners as he hit .264/.363/.403 (126 wRC+) in 48 games after being traded to Seattle over the summer.

On the other hand, Martinez’s underlying numbers suggest a resurgence could be in the cards for 2025. His 14.7% barrel rate last year was just a hair behind those of Austin Riley and Teoscar Hernández, while 45.5% Hard-Hit Rate places him squarely between Elly De La Cruz and Joc Pederson. That contributes to a .356 xwOBA that was nearly 40 points higher than his wOBA last year. Meanwhile, Turner’s profile is more or less maxed out, with his .327 wOBA in 2024 nearly matching his .330 xwOBA and his 2023 production actually outstripping his expected numbers noticeably.

So, if your team needed a DH, which veteran would you rather bring in for 2025? Would you value Turner’s consistency, discipline, and limited ability to play the field? Or are you more drawn to Martinez’s power, upside, and relative youth?

Free Agent Faceoff: Luis Severino/Nick Pivetta

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The market for starting pitching this winter has moved a bit more rapidly than the rest of free agency so far, with lefties Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi both having already found new homes with the Dodgers and Angels, respectively. This year’s pitching market is characterized by the depth of quality arms available, however, and plenty of solid pitchers still remain available. One quirk of this year’s class is that the vast majority of top-tier, and even mid-tier, starting pitchers received Qualifying Offers. Snell and Kikuchi were both exceptions to that, and other exceptions such as Jack Flaherty and Nathan Eovaldi remain on the table, but the majority of mid-rotation or better arms available this winter are attached to draft pick compensation.

The volume of QO pitchers is helped by the fact that three somewhat surprising arms were extended the QO this winter. Those three pitchers are Luis Severino, Nick Pivetta, and Nick Martinez. While Martinez opted to accept the QO and stick with the Reds on a one-year deal worth north of $21MM, both Pivetta and Severino opted to reject the QO in search of a multi-year deal in free agency. As both pitchers are already on the wrong side of 30, that’s a defensible decision for both as this winter may represent their best opportunity to land longer term guarantee in free agency. Both pitchers have considerable upside and could provide solid value for their new club if they pitch to their potential, but both also have noticeable red flags in their profiles that could give teams pause.

Severino is no longer the pitcher he was in his early 20s, when he made two All-Star teams and asserted himself as the ace of the Yankees rotation with a 3.13 ERA and 2.99 FIP across 66 starts from 2017-19. Since that peak performance, the right-hander missed nearly three full regular seasons thanks to a lat strain that cost him the majority of 2019 followed by Tommy John surgery, which wiped out 2020 and almost all of his 2021 campaign. His next two seasons also saw him wind up bitten by the injury bug, as he suffered another lat strain in 2022 and an oblique strain in 2023. While 2022 saw him look mostly like himself when healthy enough to take the mound with a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts, 2023 saw his performance take a nosedive. In 89 1/3 innings in his final year as a Yankee, Severino was torched for a 6.65 ERA and 6.14 FIP. That production was 35% worse than league average, and left him to enter free agency last winter surrounded by plenty of question marks.

The right-hander generally answered those questions after taking a one-year deal with the Mets last winter. He enjoyed his first fully healthy season since 2018, making 31 starts and throwing 182 innings. With that said, his results were clearly diminished relative to his peak as he posted a 3.91 ERA (101 ERA+) and a 4.21 FIP that cast him more as a league average pitcher than one capable of fronting a rotation. After striking out 28.8% of opponents from 2017 to 2022 and walking just 6.6%, both figures trended in the wrong direction this year as he punched out batters at a 21.2% clip and allowed free passes to 7.9% of hitters. He made up for that somewhat by posting his strongest groundball rate in years, however, with a 46% figure that ranked 14th among qualified starters this year. Severino’s fastball velocity isn’t far off from where it was at his peak, which could provide optimism for a rebound, but it seems more likely that Severino will continue as a quality third or fourth starter going forward.

Pivetta, by contrast, has been regarded all throughout his career as a high-potential arm with electric stuff. That hasn’t changed even as he’s gotten into his 30s, but he’s still yet to put up the type of quality, front-of-the-rotation production that stuff models have projected for him all throughout his career. The righty had a season in 2024 that’s become typical of him during his years since being shipped from the Phillies to the Red Sox. In 145 2/3 innings of work, he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 4.07 FIP despite striking out 28.9% of opponents and walking just 6.1%. Those ratios are actually even better than Severino’s numbers throughout his peak, but Pivetta is held back by a proclivity towards allowing homers.

He’s never allowed less than 20 long balls in a 162-game season with 102 allowed over his four years as a regular in Boston. That’s tied with Kikuchi for the fifth-most in the league over that time, behind only Patrick Corbin, Jose Berrios, Aaron Nola, and Jordan Lyles. Severino allows his fair share of home runs as well, but when accounting for the fact that he threw nearly 40 more innings than Pivetta, the difference between his 23 homers allowed this year and Pivetta’s 28 is stark. With that said, it’s undeniably that Pivetta’s high-octane stuff offers more upside than Severino at this point in his career; if a club has a pitcher-friendly ballpark or a plan to help Pivetta control his homer-happy tendencies, it’s easy to see why they’d be tempted to roll the dice on the 31-year-old’s upside.

If you were looking to sign a mid-rotation righty to a multi-year deal this winter, would you prefer to lock down Severino’s volume and quality mid-rotation production despite his lengthy injury history? Or would you rather roll the dice on Pivetta’s upside and more consistent health track record despite a lack of volume and inconsistency brought on by frequent homers?

Free Agent Faceoff: Max Scherzer/Walker Buehler

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Three years ago today, the results of voting for 2021’s NL Cy Young award were announced. The top of the ballot featured a somewhat controversial battle between the elite rate production of then-Brewers ace Corbin Burnes and the volume offered by Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, with Burnes ultimately taking home the trophy. Finishing just below them in balloting, however, was a pair of hurlers from the playoff rotation that took the Dodgers to the NLCS: right-handers Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler.

Flash forward three years, and things have gone quite well for the first- and second-place finishers for that year’s Cy Young in the NL. Burnes enters this winter as the consensus top free agent pitcher available and could be in line for a guarantee that reaches $200MM, while Wheeler opted against returning to the open market in favor of extending with the Phillies on a three-year, $126MM contract earlier this year and now stands as a Cy Young finalist once again alongside Chris Sale and Paul Skenes. Scherzer and Buehler are also headed into free agency this winter, although neither figures to be in line for a nine-figure guarantee like those of Burnes and Wheeler.

Instead, both hurlers figure to enter the open market hoping to re-establish themselves as front-of-the-rotation talents after facing adversity in recent years. Scherzer and Buehler landed the 33rd and 37th spots on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list this winter, as we predicted one-year deals worth $16MM and $15MM respectively for each player. While both hurlers boast ace-level pedigrees and could wind up signing similar contracts this winter, the pair took different paths to get to this point over recent years and their unique challenges and assets could inform the preferences of prospective suitors.

Scherzer’s struggles in recent seasons have been almost entirely about health rather than performance. After turning in 11 utterly dominant starts for the Dodgers down the stretch following a trade from the Nationals at that summer’s trade deadline, the veteran right-hander’s season came to an abrupt end when he was forced out of Game 2 of the NLCS due to a dead arm after just 4 1/3 innings of work. Scherzer was unable to bounce-back in time to pitch again for L.A. in that series and ultimately departed the club on the heels of their loss to the eventual World Champion Braves in the series.

After landing with the Mets on a three-year guarantee worth $130MM, Scherzer turned in a dominant 2022 campaign for New York but was limited to just 23 starts due to oblique issues. It was the fewest starts he had made in a full season during his career, and his 145 1/3 innings of work, while hardly out of the ordinary for a starter in recent years, was similarly a full-season career low. The right-hander bounced back in terms of volume in 2023, making 27 starts for the Mets and Rangers throughout the regular season, but suffered on the performance front as he posted a somewhat middling 3.77 ERA (112 ERA+) in 152 2/3 innings of work. Those results improved significantly (3.20 ERA, 135 ERA+) down the stretch following his trade to Texas, but much like 2021 Scherzer struggled with injuries late in the season and was hampered during the playoffs, ultimately pitching just 9 2/3 innings total during the club’s championship run.

While Scherzer’s declining volume and production were somewhat concerning, the future Hall of Famer was still clearly among the top pitchers in the sport even as he began to struggle with injury. Over those aforementioned two seasons, Scherzer combined for 50 starts where he posted an excellent 3.03 ERA (133 ERA+) with a 3.49 FIP and a 29.3% strikeout rate in 298 innings of work. That performance was good for 6.7 fWAR, good for 23rd among all starters across those two seasons and sandwiched between the likes of Max Fried and Clayton Kershaw.

Unfortunately for the veteran, however, things took a substantial turn for the worse in 2024 as he suffered from the first truly injury-plagued season of his career. After undergoing back surgery last offseason, Scherzer’s was expected to miss at least the first couple of months of action. That timetable was further delayed by nerve issues, and by the time shoulder fatigue brought his season to an early end in September he had made just nine total starts this season. Those nine starts saw Scherzer pitch effectively, though not close to the ace-level production he had flashed even two years prior. In 43 1/3 innings of work this season, he pitched to a 3.95 ERA with a 4.18 FIP, striking out 22.6% of opponents faced while walking just 5.6%.

Looking ahead to 2025, it’s certainly easy to imagine Scherzer providing high quality production whenever he’s on the field, given the league average results he posted while fighting through injury this year and his pedigree as a three-time winner and six-time finalist of the Cy Young award. With that being said, the veteran will celebrate his 41st birthday in July of 2025, and his increasingly detrimental injury woes in recent years leave plenty of questions about just how many starts Scherzer can be counted on for in 2025, particularly in the postseason given the injury questions he faced in 2023, 2021, and even 2019 with the Nationals.

By contrast, Buehler comes with far fewer questions regarding his overall health. That’s to be expected from a player who is a decade and a day Scherzer’s junior. That’s not to say Buehler hasn’t had health issues of his own, of course, as Buehler had nearly two full calendar years of his career wiped out by Tommy John surgery. Buehler returned to the mound for the Dodgers on May 7 of this year after having last pitched in a major league game on June 10 of 2022. The righty has had few injury woes throughout his career aside from his two career elbow surgeries, with a bout of hip inflammation this year and a rib injury back in 2018 representing the only other significant injuries of his big league career.

With that being said, it’s worth noting that the aforementioned Tommy John surgery was actually the second of Buehler’s pitching career. It’s not uncommon for players to struggle after going under the knife a second time, though some pitchers such as Nathan Eovaldi and Jameson Taillon have undergone the procedure twice and gone on to be effective for years following their second surgery. Buehler also averaged 95 mph on his fastball in 2024, an encouraging sign as it’s right in line with his average prior to going under the knife.

That’s not to say Buehler lacks question marks, however. The right-hander’s 2024 season was nothing short of atrocious. He surrendered a 5.38 ERA and 5.54 FIP that were both more than 30% worse than league average by ERA- and FIP-, while his 18.6% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate were both the worst marks of his career since he became a full time player in 2018. While Buehler’s solid 15 innings of work during the playoffs (3.60 ERA, 3.50 FIP) offer some reason for optimism, particularly as he struck out a third of his opponents in the NLCS and World Series, his atrocious regular season results are difficult to ignore. While Scherzer seems to be a reasonable bet to produce when healthy enough to take the mound, Buehler will need to improve his overall production substantially to be an even league average starter next year even as he flashed his front-of-the-rotation upside late in the Dodgers’ championship run this postseason.

If your team was in the market for a bounce-back starter this winter, which would you rather sign? Would you value Scherzer’s strong results and lengthy track record of success when healthy despite his age and injury questions, or would you prefer Buehler’s youth and upside despite his brutal results in 2024?

Free Agent Faceoff: Adam Duvall/Tommy Pham

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The Dodgers and Padres are set to kick off the regular season with the Korea Series in Seoul less than two weeks from today, and MLB’s 28 other clubs will follow suit the week afterwards. At this late stage of Spring Training, it’s rare for free agents of particular note to remain available on the market, but a handful of quality players linger on the open market nonetheless. That group is led by front-of-the-rotation southpaws Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, though there’s a crop of interesting lower-level pieces available as well, ranging from veteran slugger J.D. Martinez to right-handed hurler Michael Lorenzen.

While the market is deepest in starting pitching at this point in the winter, there’s one other position where teams with a need will find a number of options worth consideration still available: the outfield. Michael A. Taylor is generally regarded as the best player remaining on the market in that group due to his superlative center field defense and a strong platform season in Minnesota that saw him slug a career-best 21 home runs. With that being said, a pair of veteran bats also remain available for teams hoping to add a bit more pop to their lineup or bench mix at this late stage in the offseason: Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham. The pair are both right-handed hitting outfielders with ten seasons of MLB experience under their belt across a combined ten different clubs. The duo also both took one-year deals last winter following a down 2022 season before bouncing back in 2023 to post above-average production at the plate, and are only five months apart in age.

Similar as they are, there are some key differences between the two. Pham has been the much more consistent regular of the two throughout his career, with his 481 trips to the plate in 2023 being his lowest figure in a 162-game season since he became a full-time player in 2017. Duvall, by contrast, has reached 450 plate appearances in a season just three times in his career, most recently during the 2021 season. In addition to having more experience under his belt, Pham has been the better hitter overall for his career with a triple slash of .259/.351/.435 (116 wRC+) as opposed to Duvall’s career .232/.291/.472 (98 wRC+) slash line. The difference in the pair’s career numbers is particularly noticeable against southpaws, whom Pham has posted an .834 OPS against for his career compared to Duvall’s .770 OPS against.

While availability on the field and career numbers seem to clearly favor Pham, Duvall isn’t without advantages of his own. Despite the disparity in career numbers, he’s actually been a slightly superior hitter in recent years, with a .231/.288/.487 slash line that translates to a 104 wRC+ since the start of the 2020 season. Over that same time period, Pham has slashed just .238/.325/.392 with a 99 wRC+. In addition to the slightly stronger offensive production in recent seasons, Duvall also offers the ability to play center field, with 1,070 2/3 innings of work at the position over the past three seasons. By contrast, Pham has stuck almost entirely to the outfield corners during that same time frame, starting just 14 games in center since the start of the 2021 season. While Duvall’s glove in center has generally been panned by defensive metrics (-5 DRS, -4 OAA in 2023), the ability to handle the position is surely notable for clubs that value positional flexibility or have a need in center.

While Duvall has been the slightly better offensive player in recent years, his lead over Pham in that regard is hardly commanding. Strong as Duvall’s recent offensive performance has been, his low on-base percentages and 31.5% strikeout rate since the start of the 2021 season leave him reliant on power output for his production at the plate. That’s suited him just fine, as he’s slugged a combined 71 homers over the last three years including a whopping 38 as a full-time regular during the 2021 season. Even so, it’s certainly fair to wonder if teams in search of a regular fixture in their outfield mix would prefer Pham’s more consistent production and stronger plate discipline, with a 24.1% strikeout rate and a strong 10.9% walk rate over the past three seasons in spite of his paltry .158 ISO over that same period.

Advanced metrics certainly look more fondly on Pham’s approach, as evidenced by Pham’s .361 xwOBA in 2023 which not only outstrips his relatively pedestrian .332 wOBA, but also Duvall’s .347 figure. By contrast, Duvall’s xwOBA last season left something to be desired as he posted a figure of just .306. That disparity between Duvall’s strong results and iffy peripheral numbers can be explained in part by his torrid start to the season that saw him slug ten extra-base hits in just eight games, and his relatively pedestrian numbers afterwards that saw him post a wRC+ of just 93 following his return from injury. While it’s certainly possible that Duvall’s wrist injury sapped some of his power upon his return to the field, it’s also worth noting that Duvall’s post-injury numbers are fairly similar to his 2022 performance, where he posted a lackluster 87 wRC+ with peripheral numbers to match.

Given the pair’s number of similarities, the choice between the two players could simply come down to fit on their hypothetical new club for many teams. Organizations looking to bring in a potential regular may be more likely to choose Pham thanks to his track record as an everyday player and more reliable approach at the plate. That being said, a team looking for a contributor off the bench could be more drawn to Duvall’s recent experience at all three outfield spots and his titanic power which can allow him to change the game with a single swing. If your team was to add one of the two veterans to its outfield mix ahead of Opening Day, who would you rather have?

Free Agent Faceoff: Tim Anderson/Amed Rosario

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Teams have been spoiled by the star-studded free agent classes of recent offseasons, particularly when it comes to shortstops. The past two winters have seen the likes of Corey Seager, Carlos Correa (twice), Marcus Semien, Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts hit the open market, giving teams in search of help at the position a plethora of All Stars to choose from. Teams in need of help at shortstop this winter have found themselves with slim pickings, however.

Just three players with recent experience at shortstop cracked MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB free agents list this offseason, and the highest rated among them (Gio Urshela) played just nine games at the position in 2023 before suffering a groin injury that leaves questions about his ability to handle the position defensively entering his age-32 campaign. That leaves just two players at the top of the offseason’s thin shortstop market, and both come with major question marks: longtime White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson, and former Mets, Guardians, and Dodgers infielder Amed Rosario. Both players had profiled as everyday regulars at the position entering the year but are coming off significant down seasons both at the plate and in the field.

Entering the 2023 season, Anderson was generally considered to be a top-10 shortstop in the majors. Over the previous four seasons, he had slashed an impressive .318/.347/.474 in 374 games while collecting two All Star appearances, a Silver Slugger award, and a seventh-place finish in AL MVP voting. His 123 wRC+ during that time frame ranked seventh among all shortstops in the majors, ahead of stars such as Marcus Semien and Francisco Lindor. Unfortunately, the 2023 campaign saw the 30-year-old struggle badly both at the plate and in the field. Anderson posted -2 Outs Above Average last year after posting a +5 figure over the preceding four seasons while slashing a putrid .245/.286/.296 in 524 trips to the plate. That performance translates to a wRC+ of 60, 40% worse than the league average hitter and the worst figure among all qualified major leaguers last year.

As for Rosario, the 28-year-old was once a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport but struggled early in his career as a member of the Mets. He took a significant step forward during his age-23 season, however, and from 2019 to 2022 was more or less a league average regular at shortstop with a .282/.315/.412 slash line good for a 101 wRC+. While his defensive chops at shortstop were questionable, he nonetheless accumulated a respectable 7.3 fWAR during that time, good for 19th among shortstops across those four seasons. Just as Rosario’s peak was less extreme than Anderson’s, so too was his downfall in 2023. Rosario’s overall offensive production dipped only slightly last year as he slashed .263/.305/.378 (88 wRC+) in 545 trips to the plate. Much of Rosario’s regression this season came in the field, as he posted a whopping -14 Outs Above Average at shortstop in 2023, putting him in the first percentile among all major leaguers according to Statcast.

As worrisome as Anderson’s offensive woes and Rosario’s defensive struggles are, teams in need of a shortstop will be hard-pressed to find a better option available to them. While it seems there’s at least a decent chance that the Padres trade defensive stalwart Ha-Seong Kim this offseason, other top trade candidates capable of handling short such as Willy Adames of the Brewers appear unlikely to be moved at this point in the offseason. Free agency doesn’t offer much in the way of alternative options either. Looking beyond Urshela and his aforementioned defensive question marks, the list of available shortstops is made up primarily of aging veterans coming off down seasons like Brandon Crawford and Elvis Andrus and players who have struggled to stay on the field at all recently such as Nick Ahmed and Adalberto Mondesi.

Given the many question marks surrounding both players, rumors of interest have been relatively few and far between to this point in the offseason. The Angels were connected to Anderson back in November, and his presence could allow the club to give youngster Zach Neto more time in the minor leagues to develop after he was rushed to the majors last summer. As for Rosario, he’s been rumored as a potential target for the Red Sox and Blue Jays, though both clubs have added middle infielders since then in Vaughn Grissom and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, respectively.

As far as clubs who could be speculative fits for Anderson or Rosario this winter, the team that sticks out most as in need of a shortstop is the Marlins. Miami currently figures to utilize Jon Berti as their everyday shortstop despite him having started just 86 games at the position during his major league career, more than half of which came just last season. The Dodgers are also known to be on the lookout for an upgrade over their current tandem of Gavin Lux and Miguel Rojas at the position, while the Rays could use a shortstop given that Taylor Walls is still recovering from hip surgery while Wander Franco’s future in MLB is in question due to alleged inappropriate relationships with minors. The Mariners, A’s, and Pirates are among other clubs who could potentially benefit from adding another bat to their middle infield mix.

If your team needed to added a shortstop to its middle infield mix this winter, which would you rather sign? Would you value Anderson’s stronger defense and more impressive peak, or Rosario’s youth and stronger overall numbers last season?

Free Agent Faceoff: Aroldis Chapman/Matt Moore

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The market for pure relievers has been deathly slow this winter. Since free agency opened in early November, just four full-time relievers have signed multi-year contracts this winter: right-handers Chris Stratton and Emilio Pagan signed on with the Royals and Reds, respectively, while both NPB lefty Yuki Matsui and KBO righty Woo Suk Go recently agreed to deals with the Padres. While the likes of Nick Martinez, Reynaldo Lopez, and (most recently) Sean Manaea have all signed multi-year pacts this offseason as well, each of that trio has started games in the past and figures to have at least a chance of earning a rotation spot entering Spring Training.

There’s little question who the top dog available in free agency this offseason is in terms of relief pitching. Southpaw Josh Hader has been in the conversation for best reliever in baseball practically since his debut back in 2017 and is coming off an incredible platform season where he posted a 1.28 ERA in 56 1/3 innings of work while collecting 33 saves and striking out 36.8% of batters faced. Behind him, the best available bullpen arms largely appear to be right-handed. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently discussed the pros and cons of two of the winter’s best righty relievers, Robert Stephenson and Jordan Hicks. What of the left-handed relief market? With Hader in a league of his own, the next tier of southpaw free agent arms features two dominant back-end veterans in their mid-thirties: Aroldis Chapman and Matt Moore.

The two could hardly have had more different career paths leading them to this point. Chapman may be the most well-recognized reliever in the game today, as the veteran fireballer made seven All Star appearances between 2012 and 2021, pitching to an incredible 2.25 ERA and 2.13 FIP in 540 1/3 innings of work and racking up 305 saves across that ten-year span while pitching for the Reds, Yankees, and Cubs. During that time, Chapman’s fastball routinely topped 100 mph and averaged 99.5 mph while maxing out at over 105 mph. That velocity made him one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the game, particularly at the time of his debut back in 2010.

Over time, however, signs of decline became evident in Chapman’s profile. After pitching just 11 2/3 innings during the shortened 2020 season, 2021 saw the flamethrower post a career-worst 3.99 FIP thanks to a 15.6% strikeout rate that was his highest since his first full season in the majors back in 2011. While Chapman managed to pitch through those red flags to rack up 30 saves and post a solid 3.36 ERA, the wheels came off more noticeably for the left-hander during 2022, his final season in New York. Chapman posted the worst average fastball velocity of his career that season, averaging “just” 97.5 mph on his heater. His already elevated walk rate also continued to climb, reaching 17.5%. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate plummeted to just 26.9%, by far the worst of his career. Chapman’s 4.46 ERA and 4.57 FIP were also career worsts, and his career with the Yankees ended inauspiciously as he was left off the club’s ALDS roster after skipping a team workout.

Chapman’s struggles left him to sign a modest one-year deal with the Royals in free agency last winter in hopes of recouping his value. The lefty did well for himself in that regard as his average fastball velocity climbed back up to 99.1 mph, the highest it had been since his age-29 season back in 2017. With the improved velocity came renewed success, as Chapman struck out a whopping 41.4% of batters faced while posting a 3.09 ERA and 2.52 FIP in 58 1/3 innings of work for the Royals and Rangers. While Chapman’s 14.5% walk rate will surely raise some eyebrows, if he can continue striking out batters at elite rates he should be able to pitch around the additional traffic on the basepaths.

Moore, by contrast, was once considered the very top prospect in all of baseball and in the early years of his career with the Rays appeared to be a burgeoning star. Tommy John surgery in 2014 got in the way of Moore’s ascension, however, and the left-hander was never the same pitcher upon returning to the mound. He scuffled as a fringe rotation option for years, bouncing between the Rays, Giants, Rangers, and Tigers before heading to Japan during the 2020 campaign to try and revitalize his career overseas. Moore excelled with a 2.65 ERA in 85 innings for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Fukoka Softbanks Hawks in 2020 and returned stateside as a swingman for the Phillies in 2021, though he had another difficult season as he struggled to a 6.29 ERA in 73 innings of work.

That rough performance lead Moore to take a minor league contract with the Rangers, but upon converting to relief full time the lefty quickly made his way not only into the big league bullpen, but into a late-inning role with the club. In 74 innings of work across 63 relief appearances for the Rangers in 2022, Moore dominated to a 1.95 ERA with a 2.98 FIP and a 27.3% strikeout rate paired with a strong 43.9% groundball rate. Despite that dominance, Moore’s long track record of struggles prior to the 2022 campaign, his elevated 12.5% walk rate, and a minuscule 4.2% home run rate on fly balls likely caused concern among potential suitors in free agency, leaving him to settle for a one-year deal with the Angels last winter.

Fortunately for Moore, his performance in 2023 largely backed up his newfound role as a quality back-end relief arm and answered those questions regarding sustainability. Though time on the injured list limited the left-hander to just 50 appearances last year, he posted a strong 2.56 ERA and saw his strikeout rate tick up to 27.5% while his walk rate plummeted to a greatly-improved 6.9%. He found that success in spite of the fact that his groundball rate dipped to a career-low 35% and a whopping 11.3% of his fly balls left the yard for home runs last season.

Perhaps even more impressive is the fact that Moore found this success while being shuffled between three teams late in the season. The Angels placed him on waivers in August, where he was claimed by the Guardians, who then promptly waived him for a second time before he was claimed by the Marlins to contribute to their playoff push in the season’s final week. Taken together, Moore sports a sterling 2.20 ERA and 3.29 FIP in 126 2/3 innings dating back to the start of the 2022 season. That ERA is good for ninth among all relievers with at least 100 innings of work across the past two seasons, ahead of elite closers like David Bednar and Emmanuel Clase and just behind the likes of Jhoan Duran and Brusdar Graterol.

Relievers always come with risk involved, and that’s especially so for this pair of southpaws. Both players have had significant ups and downs over the past three seasons, and while each figures to fill the same late-inning bullpen role they vastly different pros and cons. Chapman has the name recognition and track record as a longtime closer, and is still capable of elite velocity as shown by his dominant performance in 2023. With that being said, 2022 showed just how far things can go off the rails for the lefty if he loses even a tick or two of that elite velocity, and his 15.6% walk rate since the start of the 2021 campaign seems unlikely to go down much at this stage of his career.

By contrast, Moore is anything but a known commodity given his rollercoaster history as a former top prospect and longtime journeyman starting pitcher who has only recently broken out as a dominant reliever. He lacks the premium velocity Chapman offers, having average 94 mph on his heater in each of the past two seasons, but has been among the very best relievers in baseball the past two seasons and has shown the ability to improve around the margins of his profile by cutting his walk rate nearly in half this past season. Also of note is that Moore, who will celebrate his 35th birthday in June, is nearly a year and a half younger than Chapman, who turns 36 next month.

Which southpaw would MLBTR readers rather have on their team in 2024? Do you feel Chapman’s lengthy track record and high-end velocity is too valuable to pass up, or do you prefer Moore’s recent dominance and stronger command?

Free Agent Faceoff: Jorge Soler/J.D. Martinez

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While the current free agent market for position players has generally been seen as one of the weaker ones in recent memory, there is one area where this winter’s crop has notable depth: right-handed sluggers. That market, at which Teoscar Hernandez resides as the clear top option this winter, is typically deepest at the lower levels of free agency. This season’s crop certainly has some depth at that level as well, with the likes of Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham currently available. The middle of the free agent market is where this group stands out, however. Mitch Garver has already landed with the Mariners on a two-year deal, with first baseman Rhys Hoskins and veteran infielder Justin Turner among the other options still available.

Two of the best regarded players in this part of the market are sluggers Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez. Both are primarily used as designated hitters and are coming off strong platform campaigns that saw them rebound from down performances in the previous three campaigns. Both have flashed 40-homer power in their careers previously, and both project for a similar guarantee this offseason: in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, MLBTR projected Soler for three years and $45MM guaranteed while Martinez projected for two years and $40MM.

Martinez sports the stronger platform campaign, having slugged 33 home runs in just 479 trips to the plate while slashing .271/.321/.572 with a wRC+ of 135. The veteran slugger also has the more prestigious track record as a six-time All Star who finished fourth in AL MVP voting back in 2018. Since Martinez broke out as a member of the Tigers back in 2014, he’s slashed an impressive .293/.359/.550 while never posting a below-average wRC+ in a full season. During that time, only Manny Machado, Mike Trout, and Nolan Arenado have slugged more homers than Martinez among active players, and his 140 wRC+ during that time ranks 12th among all active players. By contrast, Soler’s career-high wRC+ falls short of that impressive 140 mark and Soler has often interspersed seasons closer to league average between his All Star-caliber peaks.

That being said, Soler has some notable advantages of his own. Most obviously, he’s entering his age-32 campaign, while Martinez turned 36 back in August. That four year age gap also leaves Soler as less of a risk to suffer age-related decline over the course of his next contract. Teams could be particularly concerned about Martinez’s durability after he missed over a month with back and groin issues in 2023, causing him to appear in just 113 games for the Dodgers last season. On the other hand, of course, Soler missed the entire second half of the 2022 season due to a pelvis injury, though he was largely healthy this past season.

Aside from his relative youth and better health in 2023, Soler is among the most reliable players in the game when it comes to drawing walks, as demonstrated by his 11% walk rate since the start of the 2016 season. In fact, Soler is one of just 13 players to post a walk rate over 10% in each of the past eight seasons. That’s a list that does not include Martinez, who last posted a walk rate at that level back in 2019. That steady demonstration of plate discipline also highlights the fact that Soler’s strikeout rate has steadily improved in recent years, even as Martinez’s has begun to balloon.

While Soler’s career strikeout rate of 26.7% is two points higher than Martinez’s own career mark of 24.7%, they’ve been trending in opposite directions. Soler struck out at a career 27.9% clip through the end of the shortened 2020 season, while Martinez sported a strikeout rate of 24.2%. Over the past three seasons, however, Martinez has actually struck out more often than Soler with a 26% strikeout rate against Soler’s 25.1% figure.

Much of that has to do with the 2023 campaign, where Martinez struck out in a career-high 31.1% of plate appearances while Soler’s own 24.3% rate was the second-lowest of his career. While that shift toward whiffs has allowed Martinez to access more of his previous prodigious power after a down season in 2022 that saw him slug just 16 home runs, it’s fair to wonder if some clubs may prefer Soler’s more balanced approach to Martinez’s pure power profile, even as the veteran slugger outperformed Soler by nine points of wRC+ in 2023.

While that may not be enough to make Soler a more attractive target than Martinez, one elephant in the room that has not yet been addressed is defense. Soler’s glove leaves much to be desired, as demonstrated by his -5 Outs Above Average in right field this year and his -29 figure in the outfield since the start of the 2016 season. While Soler’s defense doesn’t offer much value to teams, it can’t be ignored that he is at least capable of playing a corner outfield spot on a semi-regular basis, something that cannot be said for Martinez.

The veteran slugger last appeared regularly on the grass back in 2017, when he was a member of the Diamondbacks before NL teams had access to the DH. By contrast, Soler has made 182 starts in the outfield corners over the past three seasons, more than half of the games he’s appeared in during that time. Even as Soler is far from a quality defender in the outfield, Martinez lacks the ability to play the outfield on more than an emergency basis at this stage of his career, complicating his fit for teams that already have a player on the roster who receives semi-frequent starts at DH or even simply prefer to use the DH as a way to rest regulars throughout the season.

Given the pair’s many similarities, it’s hardly a surprise that the two sluggers have somewhat overlapping markets this winter. Both have been directly to connected to the Mariners and Diamondbacks this offseason, while the Mets, Angels, and Blue Jays are all also known to have at least some interest in adding a bat-first slugger to their lineups this offseason. Martinez has generally been connected to those latter teams more frequently than Soler, though both players figure to be fits for each of the aforementioned teams this offseason to say nothing of clubs like the Marlins and Brewers who have not yet been connected to this area of the market but would surely benefit from another bat-first player in the lineup.

So, which one do you think teams should prioritize? Is Martinez’s lengthy track record and unparalleled power potential too enticing to pass up, or does Soler’s youth, ability to play defense, and more balanced approach in recent years outweigh those considerations?

Free Agent Faceoff: Jordan Hicks/Robert Stephenson

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Aside from an early flurry by the Braves, there hasn’t been much movement on the relief market. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, seven relievers have signed a deal that guarantees more than $10MM since the end of the regular season. Atlanta inked three of those contracts, two of which (for Pierce Johnson and Joe Jiménez) came just before the opening of free agency.

There’s no question who tops the class; that’s Josh Hader. The #2 reliever is a matter of debate. One could’ve made arguments for Jiménez, Reynaldo López or even NPB closer Yuki Matsui (who signed a five-year, $28MM pact with San Diego). On our Top 50 free agents, we slotted Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson as the top bullpen arms behind Hader. We predicted four-year pacts for both players, pegging Hicks for a $40MM deal and Stephenson at $36MM.

Neither pitcher has a multi-year track record of consistency. Yet they’re each hitting the market at an opportune time, coming off strong platform showings that demonstrate significant upside.

Hicks throws as hard as anyone in the game. His sinker averaged a little above 100 MPH, reaching 103-104. The velocity hasn’t translated into quite as many whiffs as it might seem, as the downhill action on the pitch works better as a ground-ball offering.

The righty has kept the ball on the ground on three-fifths of batted balls over the course of his career. His 24.5% career strikeout rate is more solid than exceptional, although he fanned a personal-high 28.4% of opponents last season. In addition to his eye-popping velocity and huge ground-ball numbers, Hicks has age on his side. He turned 27 in September, making him the youngest free agent reliever of note.

The primary concerns with Hicks are his control and injury history. He has never thrown strikes at a league average rate, walking over 10% of opponents in every season (including an 11.2% clip last year). While Hicks turned in a fully healthy platform year with the Cardinals and Blue Jays in 2023, he missed significant time between 2019-22. Much of that was a result of Tommy John surgery in June 2019. He lost a good portion of the ’21 campaign to continued elbow inflammation, while a flexor strain in his forearm cost him a chunk of the ’22 season.

Stephenson, who turns 31 in February, hasn’t had the same level of alarming arm issues. His career performance track record is spottier, though, as he has allowed 4.64 earned runs per nine over 364 1/3 frames. Some of that is a reflection of pitching in hitter-friendly parks in Cincinnati and Colorado, but Stephenson also posted unspectacular results in 28 1/3 innings with the Pirates.

As recently as last summer, he seemed a fairly nondescript pitcher. He’d been a highly-regarded prospect and showed intriguing stuff without much success at the MLB level. Things turned following an early June trade to the Rays.

In 38 1/3 frames with Tampa Bay, Stephenson posted a 2.35 ERA while striking out 42.9% of opponents. He missed bats on an astounding 28.7% of his offerings. That was not only the highest rate in MLB over that stretch, it was nearly eight percentage points above second-place Félix Bautista. Over the season’s final four months, he was handily the most dominant reliever in the majors on a pitch-for-pitch basis.

Stephenson doesn’t have the triple-digit velocity of Hicks. Averaging 97 MPH on the heater is more than sufficient, though. He introduced an upper-80s cutter in Tampa Bay, against which hitters made contact on only 40% of their swings. Stephenson has the decided edge in swing-and-miss potential. The question is how much of his dominant four months in Tampa Bay is replicable. He’s unlikely to continue missing bats at that exceptional clip — no pitcher should be expected to maintain that kind of pace — but he’s markedly better than the hurler who owned a career 4.91 ERA and 24.3% strikeout rate before the trade.

There has been some overlap in the Hicks and Stephenson markets. That’s sensible considering they’re probably the top remaining options for teams that don’t want to meet Hader’s asking price. The Rangers, Yankees, Astros, Angels and Orioles are among the clubs linked to both pitchers this winter (although Baltimore subsequently signed Craig Kimbrel). The Red Sox and Cardinals have been tied to Hicks, while the Cubs and Dodgers were linked to Stephenson early in the offseason.

Which one should teams prioritize? Lean in favor of Hicks’ youth and velocity or Stephenson’s bat-missing potential?

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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