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Free Agent Faceoff

Free Agent Faceoff: Catcher Pile

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A lot has happened since MLBTR previewed this winter’s free agent catchers back in September. Several players were cast off of rosters as the season’s final months played out, which added some names to the pile. Some names were removed from the pile as well, as Yan Gomes, Manny Pina, Sandy Leon, Pedro Severino, Andrew Knapp and Roberto Perez all put pen to paper in the past few months. That means that an already-thin market is now even thinner, leaving teams with limited avenues for bolstering their catching corps. Trades are always an option, of course. But in terms of free agents, there are only five remaining catchers that played more than 35 games in 2021.

Stephen Vogt, 37, was designated for assignment by Atlanta in October, as the Braves were in the midst of their charge towards becoming World Series champions. It was revealed a few days later that Vogt had undergone sports hernia surgery, which isn’t expected to prevent him from being ready for spring training this year. He played 78 games in 2021, between the Diamondbacks and Braves. Although he has usually received more praise for his offense than his defensive work, he hit just .195/.283/.333, wRC+ of 64 this past season. He also had a rough campaign in 2020, but was productive as recently as 2019, when he hit .263/.314/.490. That amounted to a wRC+ of 106 and 0.9 fWAR in 99 games.

Kurt Suzuki, 38, signed a one-year deal with the Angels for 2021 and played 72 games for them this year. Like Vogt, he’s long been considered more of a bat-first catcher, but he hit only .224/.294/.343 for the Halos, for a wRC+ of 76. However, his wRC+ was over 100 in each of the previous four seasons. From 2017 to 2020, he hit 50 home runs and slashed .272/.337/.475, wRC+ of 111.

Robinson Chirinos, 37, has a similar profile to Vogt and Chirinos, often earning praise for his offensive skills. But unlike them, he’s not coming off a down year at the plate. From 2015 to 2019, he had an excellent five-year run, hitting 71 home runs and slashing .234/.340/.452, for a wRC+ of 109. The shortened 2020 campaign was not kind to him, however, as his line dropped to .162/.232/.243. He had to settle for a minor league deal with the Yankees for 2021 but was later signed by the Cubs to a major league deal. He got into 45 games for them and hit .227/.324/.454, wRC+ of 108.

Austin Wynns, 31, has spent his entire career with the Orioles thus far. They selected him in the 10th round of the 2013 draft. He’s played in 115 MLB games across three different seasons. In 2021, he got into 45 games and hit .185/.232/.308. He was outrighted off the roster and elected free agency in October. He’s the youngest of this group but also has the least significant track record at the plate. He does have a strong defensive reputation, however, and less than two years’ service time, meaning he could have years of cheap team control, unless the new CBA changes the service time rules.

Wilson Ramos, 34, split his season between Detroit and Cleveland, getting into 44 games on the year. He hit .205/.248/.397, for a wRC+ of 72. He’s long had a strong defensive reputation, though that has waned as injuries have taken their toll on him over the years. His 2021 season came to an end with an unfortunate injury in August. He isn’t too far removed from a 2019 season that saw him hit .288/.351/.416 for a wRC+ 105, but his health will be the major concern for him now.

Which of these backstops is the best option for teams that want to add some depth behind the plate? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Free Agent Faceoff: Second Base Battle Royale

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For those teams looking to improve at second base, many free agent options have already gone. Marcus Semien went to the Rangers, Javier Baez to the Tigers, Eduardo Escobar to the Mets, Cesar Hernandez to the Nationals and Rougned Odor to the Orioles. Chris Taylor and Leury Garcia returned to their clubs from 2021, the Dodgers and White Sox, respectively. It seems some people in the industry believe Trevor Story should be moved to second base, but it’s unclear if Story himself agrees with that assessment. It’s also possible that another shortstop could be moved to second, such as Jose Iglesias, though he has only 21 games of second base experience in his career thus far and hasn’t matched Story’s offensive production. For teams looking to upgrade at the keystone, who’s still available to be signed after the lockout?

Josh Harrison, 34, had an awful campaign in 2019 but has been solid over the past two seasons. Over 2020 and 2021, he got into 171 games and hit .279/.343/.402. That amounts to a wRC+ of 104 and 1.8 fWAR. Of those 171 games, he played second base in 114 of them, as well as lesser time at third and shortstop, with brief stints at all three outfield spots and even one inning at first base. Statcast doesn’t like his defensive work at those tertiary positions, but he was worth 8 OAA as a second baseman in 2021.

Jed Lowrie, 38 in April, only played nine games over 2019 and 2020 due to injuries. 2021 was a solid bounceback, however, as he played 139 games, hitting .245/.318/.398, for a wRC+ of 100, exactly league average. However, almost half of those games saw Lowrie slotted in at DH or appear as a pinch hitter, as he only played second base in 71 of them, along with three innings at third.

Donovan Solano, 34, is coming off the best three years of his career. From 2019 to 2021, he played 236 games, hitting .308/.354/.435 for a wRC+ of 114. In most of those games, 172, he appeared at second base, while also seeing some limited action at third and short. Statcast pegged his defense at second base as close to average over those three seasons.

Jonathan Villar, 31 in May, has alternated hot and cold in recent years. In 2019, he hit 24 homers, stole 40 bases and slashed .274/.339/.453 for a wRC+ 107 and 3.9 fWAR. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he hit just two dingers, stole 16 bases and hit .232/.301/.292 for a wRC+ of 65 and -0.3 fWAR. He turned things around again in 2021, with 18 homers, 14 stolen bases and a line of .249/.322/.416, 105 wRC+ and 2.1 fWAR. He only played nine games at second, as the Mets largely used him at third and short. Statcast wasn’t enamored with his defense in 2021, pegging him at -3 OAA overall.

Matt Duffy, 31 in January, had a rough 2019 and couldn’t crack the big leagues in 2020. Signed by the Cubs to a minor league deal prior to the 2021 season, he was able to crack the Opening Day roster and stick with the club all season long, except for a two-month stint on the IL. He got into 97 games and hit .287/.357/.381, for a wRC+ of 102 and 1.5 fWAR. He played 56 games at third, 21 at second, five at shortstop, three in left field, two at first base and even logged one third of an inning on the mound. Statcast graded him as being -4 OAA at second base in that small sample.

Matt Carpenter, 36, had a tremendous run from 2012 to 2018, putting up a wRC+ of at least 117 for seven straight seasons. However, it’s been a straight slide downwards since then. He finished 2018 at 140 but dropped to 96, 85 and 70 over the subsequent three campaigns. His strikeout rate also gradually ticked upwards, from 23.3% in 2018 to 26.2%, 28.4% and 30.9% in the three following years. He played 34 games at second base this year and was considered around average by Statcast. There’s no questioning it’s been a rough few years, but if he could get anywhere near his previous peak, he could be an intriguing bounceback candidate.

Each of these players have warts, but none of them should command a huge financial commitment. Villar was the only one to crack MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents, being predicted to get a contract of $14MM over two years. But which one would you prefer? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Free Agent Faceoff: Nick Castellanos Vs. Kyle Schwarber

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Prior to the lockout, a flurry of hot stove activity led to free agents flying off the shelves at lightning speed, especially starting pitchers. However, one segment of the bazaar that wasn’t quite as frenzied was the corner outfield market. Mark Canha and Avisail Garcia signed with the Mets and Marlins, respectively, and utility man Chris Taylor returned to the Dodgers. But that leaves plenty of options still unsigned, including Michael Conforto, Seiya Suzuki, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and many others.

However, the top two corner outfield bats, both of whom also remain unsigned, are Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. (Kris Bryant is also still available, though he figures to garner plenty of interest as a third baseman.) Despite some subtle differences in their profiles, Castellanos and Schwarber have offered fairly similar production in recent seasons. Castellanos generally offers more in terms of batting average, with Schwarber making up the difference by having a stronger walk rate. But both bring similar power to the table, along with subpar defensive abilities. (Both players figure to benefit from the implementation of the universal DH, widely expected to be part of the next CBA.)

Just how comparable are they? Let’s look at the last five seasons:

Castellanos: .286/.339/.518, 123 wRC+, 11.7 fWAR.
Schwarber: .236/.342/.495, 117 wRC+, 10.8 fWAR.

How about the last three years?

Castellanos: .287/.341/.539, 125 wRC+, 7.3 fWAR.
Schwarber: .245/.346/.516, 123 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR.

Just 2021:

Castellanos: .309/.362/.576, 140 wRC+, 4.2 fWAR.
Schwarber: .266/.374/.554, 145 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR.

However, despite that similar production, their markets have a couple of important differences. First of all, Castellanos is almost exactly one year older. He’ll turn 30 on March 4, with Schwarber turning 29 the very next day. Secondly, Castellanos received and rejected a qualifying offer, meaning the team that signs him will have to surrender a draft pick and potentially international bonus pool money. (For a refresher on what determines the penalty for signing a QO’d free agent, check out this post.) Schwarber, on the other hand, was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer due to the fact that he was traded midseason.

Perhaps the biggest difference, however, is financial. Castellanos was predicted by MLBTR to get a contract of $115MM over five years. But prior to the lockout, the most recent news about his market was that he was looking for a seven- or eight-year deal. Schwarber, on the other hand, was reportedly looking for an offer around $60MM over three years, not too far from the $70MM over four years that MLBTR predicted.

While Castellanos generally comes out ahead of Schwarber when looking at the statistics, it seems it may take a commitment twice as long in order to sign him, in addition to the penalty the signing team would be paying because of the QO. Taking all of that into consideration, if you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, who would you be calling after the lockout ends?

(poll link for app users)

Free Agent Faceoff: Jorge Soler Vs. Eddie Rosario

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The Braves’ midseason outfield reconstruction has been well-documented. Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario and — to a lesser extent — Joc Pederson and Adam Duvall all performed at a high level after being acquired in seemingly minor deals in advance of the trade deadline, a haul that helped Atlanta to a World Series title.

Only Duvall remains on the roster, though, with each of Soler, Rosario and Pederson having qualified for free agency at the end of the season. It wouldn’t be surprising to see someone from that group eventually return, but all thirty clubs will have a chance to pursue that trio whenever the lockout comes to an end.

Soler and Rosario, in particular, profile as two of the most intriguing remaining free agent outfielders. Both players began the year in the AL Central — Soler in Kansas City, Rosario in Cleveland. Neither played particularly well at their initial stop, and Atlanta acquired them in separate deadline day swaps that cost them only cash and one prospect: Kasey Kalich.

Yet both players flipped the script with a strong couple months in Atlanta. Soler hit .269/.358/.524 with 14 home runs across 242 regular season plate appearances with the Braves, offensive output that was 32 percentage points above average by measure of wRC+. Rosario only tallied 106 trips to the dish down the stretch — he was on the injured list at the time of his trade — but his .271/.330/.573 mark in that time checked in 33 points above the league average.

Both players also had great postseasons, although Soler’s was briefly interrupted by a positive COVID-19 test. Rosario hit three homers in 28 plate appearances during the NLCS en route to series MVP honors in a win over the Dodgers. Soler claimed the World Series MVP by hitting a trio of longballs against the Astros during the following set.

Soler’s and Rosario’s heroics were enough to cement their places in Braves lore. Teams now considering a free agent pursuit of either have to determine what to expect moving forward, though. Regarding both players, that’s a difficult question, considering their up-and-down track records before they landed in Atlanta.

Soler, 30 in February, has been a prototypical three-true-outcomes slugger for much of his career. His massive power made him a top prospect, and while it took a few seasons for him to settle in as a regular, Soler demonstrated the offensive upside that had made him so highly touted between 2018-19. Over those two seasons, the right-handed slugger hit .265/.354/.541 (132 wRC+) despite playing his home games in Kansas City’s spacious Kauffman Stadium. His 48 home runs the latter year paced the American League, and those power results were backed up by top-of-the-scale batted ball metrics.

Jorge Soler

In addition to that huge power, Soler rarely chases pitches outside the strike zone. He’s walked at an above-average clip in each season since 2016. That’s an impressive combination upon which to build, but Soler also has real swing-and-miss concerns. Aside from a 24-game showing as a rookie, Soler has never had a season in which he’s made contact on even 70% of his swings; the 2021 league average, for reference, was 76.1%.

With that swing-and-miss comes a high strikeout rate that can tank Soler’s batting averages when things aren’t going well. Between the start of 2020 and this past summer’s trade deadline, he compiled 534 plate appearances of .204/.300/.394 hitting. That includes an awful .192/.288/.370 mark with the Royals in 2021, a bad enough first half that each of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference actually pegged Soler’s overall work this past season as below replacement level even after accounting for his late-season turnaround.

That also hints at another red flag in Soler’s game: his defense. Public metrics have long pegged him as a well below-average corner outfielder, and he spent a decent chunk of time at designated hitter in Kansas City. The potential implementation of the universal DH in collective bargaining talks could expand Soler’s market, but clubs are increasingly wary of committing everyday DH at-bats to players unless they’re an elite middle-of-the-order presence. Soler has been that caliber of hitter over a full season in 2019. He finished 2021 on an absolute tear. Yet the intervening season and a half were quite poor, and Soler doesn’t have the defensive profile to remain valuable even as he’s in a slump offensively.

Rosario’s defensive track record is also a bit spotty, but public metrics have generally been more enthused with his work than with Soler’s. He’s limited to the corners — primarily left field — but he shouldn’t need to see too much time at DH over the next couple years. But Rosario has never matched Soler’s 2018-19 offensive peak, at least not over a full season. The 30-year-old posted solid numbers each season from 2017-20 with the Twins, but he’s never had a season with a wRC+ more than 17 points above league average.

Rosario doesn’t come with swing-and-miss concerns; he’s made contact at a solid rate five years running. And while he doesn’t have elite power, he’s certainly capable of making an impact at the plate. The left-handed hitter has three seasons with 24+ homers on his resume, and he typically posts exit velocities and hard contact rates a bit above the respective league marks.

Eddie Rosario

Yet Rosario’s offensive ceiling has been capped by how often he swings. He’s one of the league’s most aggressive hitters, an approach that leads to a consistently low walk rate. Rosario only has one season under his belt (2017) with an on-base percentage higher than the league mark, with teams obviously worried about that profile.

Last offseason, Rosario (who had been projected for an arbitration salary in the $8.6MM to $12.9MM range) was passed through outright waivers and non-tendered by Minnesota. He began the 2021 campaign with just a .254/.296/.389 mark over 306 plate appearances with the Indians. His stint in Atlanta was great, but that came over a comparatively small tally of 174 trips to the plate, even including the playoffs.

Each of Soler and Rosario present an interesting evaluation for teams. They’re coming off excellent second halves that carried over into fantastic postseasons. Yet each player is less than six months removed from rather significant struggles on non-contending clubs. For teams looking to address their corner outfield situations in free agency yet unwilling to spend at the level it’d take to land Nick Castellanos or Kyle Schwarber, Soler and Rosario could each be targets coming out of the transactions freeze. Which player should land the loftier contract?

(poll link for app users)

 

Free Agent Faceoff: Kris Bryant Vs. Kyle Seager Vs. Eduardo Escobar

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If you scan MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents looking for a third baseman, you’ll quickly see Kris Bryant in the #4 slot, predicted to get a contract of $160MM over six years, an average annual value of $26.67MM. Then there’s a big drop-off to Kyle Seager at #31 and Eduardo Escobar at #35. Each is projected to get a two-year deal, with Seager getting a total of $24MM and Escobar $20MM.

Age is certainly a justified reason for Bryant to get a longer contract, as he’s about to turn 30 in January, whereas Seager just turned 34 and Escobar will turn 33 in January, his birthday being the day after Bryant’s, making him almost exactly three years older. However, looking at their recent track records, they may not be as far apart as one might think.

Bryant was a high profile prospect who burst onto the scene in 2015. In his first three seasons, he lived up to all of the hype, hitting .288/.388/.527 for a wRC+ of 144. Combined with solid defense, he was worth 20.7 fWAR over those three seasons, which included winning NL MVP in 2016 and a World Series ring to boot. He has slowed down since that time, however, primarily on the defensive side of things. His slash line from 2018 to 2021 is still great, coming in at .268/.363/.479, wRC+ of 124. But due to diminished defensive numbers, that adds up to 11.1 fWAR over those four seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average gave Bryant 5 and 4 at third base in 2016 and 2017, respectively. But since then, he’s been at 0 or below, including -4 at third base in 2021 and -10 overall.

Escobar’s trajectory has been almost the opposite, as he had a breakout year in 2018 and has had his strongest campaigns in recent years. Like Bryant, he had three solid seasons in the past four years, with the shortened 2020 season being his weakest. His overall line from 2018 to 2021 is .259/.318/.475, wRC+ of 105. His defense has been graded around league average in that time, allowing him to accumulate 9.5 fWAR in that span, just 1.6 shy of Bryant. In 2021, Bryant’s wRC+ of 123 was ahead of Escobar’s 107, but the defensive differences meant that his 3.6 fWAR on the campaign was just barely ahead of Escobar’s 3.0. Escobar’s nightmare season in 2020 resulted in -0.5 fWAR, but he was worth three wins or more in each of 2018, 2019 and 2021.

As for Seager, his best run of play was from 2012 to 2017. He has certainly slipped a bit since then but still managed to be a solid contributor thanks to his power and defense. Over the 2018-2021 timeframe, he hit .224/.298/.423, for a wRC+ of 99 and 8.5 fWAR, just a shade behind Escobar. Despite some ups and downs on offense, his glovework has been fairly steady. In the estimation of FanGraphs, he’s been worth at least 1.5 fWAR for ten straight seasons now, including the shortened 2020 campaign. In the six seasons of data for OAA, Seager has been worth at least three OAA in five of those seasons, with 2018 being the only outlier.

There’s no denying that Bryant deserves to be the top option out of these three. He’s the best hitter and offers upside that the others can’t match. The potential implementation of the NL DH would also make it easier for him to play the field less and perhaps maximize the value of his bat. His ability to play the outfield opens his market, although his defense hasn’t been graded well out on the grass. For teams looking for someone to play third base regularly, his declining defensive numbers would surely give them pause, especially when the asking price will probably be near $30MM per season. Escobar and Seager should cost less than half what Bryant will, both in terms of years and average annual value. There would be some logic to a team taking one of the cheaper options and using the cost savings to upgrade another area of their squad.

If you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, would you rather blow your budget and commit long-term to Bryant, and then get some cheap fliers to fill out the rest of your team? Or would you rather spread your money around more evenly, getting a cheap option like Escobar or Seager and then having more money for other additions? Have your say in the poll below.

(Poll link for app users)

Free Agent Faceoff: Kevin Gausman Vs. Robbie Ray

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There are a few options for teams playing at the top of the starting pitching market to choose from this winter. Max Scherzer should land the highest average annual value, but his age (37) might cap the length of those offers at three years. Carlos Rodón had an utterly dominant platform year, but he dealt with some shoulder concerns at the end of the season that could be a red flag for teams. Marcus Stroman has a long track record of durability, great strike-throwing and elite ground-ball numbers, but he doesn’t miss bats the way most teams covet from their top-of-the-rotation arms.

It’s not out of the question someone from that trio could land a deal that surpasses general expectations. It seems more likely, though, that Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray will ultimately wind up battling one another for the highest overall guarantee among pitchers. Let’s dig into each player’s profile to determine which one teams should have at the top of their preference lists.

For the first few seasons of his career, Gausman occasionally flashed the potential that had made him a top five draft pick. But he also had bouts of inconsistency and struggled badly enough in 2019 to be waived by the Braves and then non-tendered by the Reds, who had plucked him off the wire.

Since signing with the Giants over the 2019-20 offseason, Gausman has taken his game to a new level. His 3.62 ERA in 2020 was among the best marks of his career, and even that belied elite strikeout and walk numbers. That came in only twelve outings because of the shortened season, and Gausman accepted a qualifying offer last winter in hopes of proving he’d markedly improved over a bigger body of work.

Betting on himself is in position to pay off handsomely. Gausman stayed healthy all year, working 192 innings of 2.81 ERA ball. He didn’t quite sustain his 2020 strikeout rate, but this past season’s 29.3% mark still checked in fourteenth among the 129 hurlers with 100+ innings. Gausman’s 15.3% swinging strike rate was even more impressive, placing fifth among that same group. He’ll now market back-to-back great years of performance. He has missed bats at an elite level for the past few seasons, and the righty has always had plus control.

There’s not a whole lot to nitpick about Gausman’s numbers, although it’s at least worth considering that he succeeds somewhat non-traditionally. He’s tinkered with different breaking pitches but has never found an effective one. Instead, he leaned more heavily than ever on his four-seam fastball (52.7%) and splitter (35.3%) in 2021. Per Statcast, Gausman was one of just fourteen starting pitchers to use a split more than 10% of the time. Most teams are probably willing to look past that unconventional repertoire, since Gausman now has a multi-year track record of great play. Still, it’s a lot more common to see aces with a Ray-like arsenal (primarily fastball-slider), and that could be a factor for some clubs.

Great as Gausman was this past season, Ray was arguably better. The southpaw posted a 2.84 ERA over 193 1/3 frames. He thrived in a division that sent three other teams to the playoffs and split his year between a trio of home ballparks, all of which seemed to be favorable for hitters. Gausman spent the year in the National League, where he’d get to face the opposing pitcher on most nights; Ray wasn’t as fortunate pitching in the American League. And while Gausman turns 31 in January, Ray will pitch almost all of next season at age-30 before turning 31 in October.

Ray’s underlying metrics were similarly elite. He fanned 32.1% of opponents, the sixth-highest mark leaguewide. Ray checked in one spot ahead of Gausman on the swinging strike rate leaderboard, with his 15.5% mark ranking fourth. When batters did make contact against Ray, they were more successful than they’d been hitting against Gausman. Ray was more prone to hard contact and fly balls, and he indeed gave up more home runs. But on a batter-by-batter basis, they were similarly effective at preventing baserunners. Opponents hit .210/.267/.401 against Ray; they batted .210/.264/.345 off Gausman.

Of course, teams will take the players’ pre-2021 bodies of work into account when making a decision of this magnitude. For Gausman versus Ray, that only makes things more complicated. While Gausman was great in 2020, Ray had an awful season. He walked 17.9% of batters faced that year, posting a 6.62 ERA in 51 2/3 innings. It was a nightmarish year, but it’s also easy to see teams writing that off as a fluke. Not only was 2020 a season of inherent small samples, Ray made an obvious alteration to his throwing mechanics entering that year. Clearly, Ray’s pre-2020 adjustments negatively impacted his control, but he returned to his original throwing motion in 2021, as he explained to Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic last month.

While Gausman’s 2020 was unquestionably better than Ray’s, the latter had the better career track record going into that year. He was an All-Star in 2017, a year in which he finished seventh in NL Cy Young Award voting. He had a top ten strikeout rate (minimum 100 innings) every season from 2016-19. So while Ray was one of the worst pitchers in baseball in 2020, he certainly hasn’t come out of nowhere.

To recap: Gausman and Ray had similarly elite platform seasons. The former was also great in 2020, while the latter had a terrible season. Ray was far better before 2020, though, and he’s nearly a full year younger. Now, we’ll turn it over to the readership. Whom should teams looking to make a splash in free agency this winter prefer: Gausman or Ray?

(poll link for app users)

 

Free Agent Faceoff: Gausman v. Stroman

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The upcoming offseason’s free-agent pitching market is not flush with ace-caliber talent. There’s Trevor Bauer, who should sign the richest deal in free agency (at least on an annual basis), and then a slew of hurlers with their share of warts. For those who can’t afford Bauer or the many bidders who lose out on him, there will be a shortage of high-caliber talent. Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman are likely the two best pending free-agent starters beyond Bauer, which doesn’t seem all that encouraging.

While both Gausman and Stroman have logged at least OK numbers for most of their careers, neither has been a top-level starter. For instance, the soon-to-be 30-year-old Gausman is only a year removed from the Braves placing him on waivers, but he was a capable starter with the Orioles before then and a good reliever with the Reds after that.

Gausman settled for a one-year, $9MM contract with the Giants last offseason, though that proved to be a great investment for the club. He wound up making 10 starts in 12 appearances as a Giant and pitching to a 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP with 11.92 K/9 and 2.41 BB/9 across 59 2/3 innings. Among 81 pitchers who accumulated 50-plus frames, Gausman finished seventh in swinging-strike rate, 14th in K/BB ratio and 15th in FIP. There’s a lot to like about that combination, especially for someone who averages around 95 mph on his fastball.

Stroman, who will also turn 30 before next season, is the more accomplished hurler than Gausman. The former Blue Jay and current Met has recorded a 3.76 ERA/3.64 FIP through 146 games (140 starts) and 849 1/3 frames since he debuted in 2014. Stroman continued that sort of production last year between the teams, and though he doesn’t throw as hard as Gausman, he has overcome a relative lack of velocity with a high amount of grounders and a low number of walks. The problem for Stroman as he nears free agency is that he didn’t pitch at all in 2020 because of coronavirus-related concerns. You can’t blame Stroman for exercising caution, but it remains to be seen whether taking the season off will affect him on the market.

Now, considering the lack of quality starters going into the offseason, Gausman and/or Stroman could be in line for qualifying offers and fairly expensive multiyear pacts. Which player do you think should earn more? (Poll link for app users)

Free Agent Faceoff: Wood Vs. Walker

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The market for starting pitchers has shrunk substantially since free agency opened at the beginning of November. Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel and Cole Hamels have all found contracts. Jake Odorizzi, whom MLBTR ranked as the game’s 10th-best free agent at the outset of the winter, accepted a qualifying offer from Minnesota. The Twins also re-signed Michael Pineda and just picked up two more starters in Rich Hill and Homer Bailey.

With all of those pitchers and several others (Kyle Gibson, Tanner Roark and Julio Teheran, to name some) off the board, it looks like a pretty bare-bones group at this point. So, if you’re still banking on finding a No. 1, 2 or 3 type of starter in free agency, you may be out of luck. Even a surefire No. 4 or 5 seems like a lot to ask right now, but there are at least a few unsigned starters with upside who won’t cost a bank-breaking amount to sign. Left-hander Alex Wood and righty Taijuan Walker are two examples.

Between Wood and Walker, the former wins this battle in a landslide as far as major league track record goes. The 28-year-old flew under the radar to some degree from 2013-18, an 803 1/3-inning stretch in which he combined for a sterling 3.29 ERA/3.36 FIP with 8.27 K/9, 2.57 BB/9 and a 49.5 percent groundball rate with the Braves and Dodgers. Thanks to that run, the Reds acquired Wood last offseason with the expectation he’d give them front-line production. Instead, though, back problems limited the relatively soft-tossing Wood to seven starts and 35 2/3 frames of 5.80 ERA/6.38 FIP ball.  Since then, there hasn’t been any reported interest on MLBTR’s pages in Wood, who has quickly gone from coveted starter to buy-low candidate.

Walker’s in a similar position – someone who could be a high-reward pickup at a reasonable cost. Now 27, Walker was an extremely hyped prospect with Seattle, which chose him 43rd overall in 2017. However, Walker didn’t prove to be irreplaceable to the Mariners over a fairly small sample of action, and they wound up trading him to the Diamondbacks in a late-2016 blockbuster.

Walker and his ~94 mph fastball were quite effective in his first season in Arizona – 3.49 ERA/4.04 FIP with 8.35 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 48.9 percent grounder rate in 157 1/3 innings – but he has barely pitched since. He tossed 13 innings in 2018 before undergoing Tommy John surgery that May, and totaled just one frame last season (in the D-backs’ final game) after shoulder injuries stunted his TJS recovery. Arizona then cut Walker loose via non-tender instead of paying him a projected $5MM-plus in arbitration. Since then, at least one team – Walker’s old employer in Seattle – has shown interest in signing him.

Walker and Wood appear as if they’d be sensible additions for the Mariners or any other team that wants to take a back-of-the-rotation risk on a short-term deal. Odds are that neither player will secure a multiyear guarantee, though a one-season contract with a club option for 2021 could be a worthwhile gamble. Wood seems likely to rake in more money (MLBTR predicted he’d get a one-year, $8MM pact), but does that make him a better bet than Walker? Which of the two would you sign?

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Free Agent Faceoff: Castellanos Vs. Ozuna

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The elite class of free agents – those capable of landing significant multiyear contracts – has shrunk to almost nothing since the market opened at the beginning of November. Third baseman Josh Donaldson, who could wind up with a contract in the $80MM vicinity (if not more) before next season begins, stands out as by far the No. 1 player available. For the most part, impact players without teams are a lot harder to find thereafter, though there are a couple other hitters who should join Donaldson in cashing in during the coming weeks.

Outfielders Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna entered the offseason as two of the top outfielders sans contracts. Almost two months later, they’re still looking for jobs. At the outset of the winter, MLBTR predicted a four-year, $58MM guarantee for Castellanos and a three-year, $45MM guarantee for Ozuna. Several teams have been connected to the two since, but neither player has found an offer to his liking. Now, it’s worth wondering who’s the more desirable player of the pair.

Castellanos, who will turn 28 in March, broke out with the Tigers in 2016 and has been a well-above-average offensive player since. During that four-year, 2,454-plate appearance span spent with the Tigers and Cubs, Castellanos slashed .286/.336/.504 with 94 home runs, a 6.5 percent walk rate and a 22.3 percent strikeout rate en route to a 121 wRC+ (meaning his production came in 21 percent above the average hitter’s) and 9.7 fWAR.

As has been covered time and again, Castellanos’ defensive limitations have somewhat offset his work at the plate. Castellanos couldn’t hack it at third base, which led the Tigers to move him to right field late in 2017. He has also endured no shortage of troubles in the outfield, having accounted for minus-35 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-25.7 Ultimate Zone. Although Castellanos did show some improvement last season, he still stumbled to a minus-9 DRS with a minus-5.2 UZR. So, if you’re adding him to your team, you’re probably not expecting much in the field.

On the other hand, DRS (plus-28) and UZR (plus-28.3) have given high marks to Ozuna in the outfield (primarily left) since his career began with the Marlins in 2013. Dating back to then, Ozuna has batted .273/.329/.455 with 148 homers (112 wRC+), a 21 percent strikeout rate against a 7.5 walk percentage, and 20.3 fWAR over 3,861 trips to the plate divided between Miami and St. Louis.

The 29-year-old Ozuna has been a more valuable player overall than Castellanos, though the latter has closed the gap in the past couple years. Castellanos was clearly the more productive batter in that span, as his 126 wRC+ trumped Ozuna’s 108 mark. But both players have been perennial Statcast favorites, evidenced in part by Castellanos’ .364 expected weighted on-base average and Ozuna’s even better .382 figure from 2019.

Bottom-line production aside, Castellanos and Ozuna have shown themselves to be pretty durable throughout their careers. Since his first full year in 2014, Castellanos has put up seasons of 148 games or more five times (including 151 in 2019). While Ozuna did miss 32 games because of broken fingers last season, he does have four years of 148-plus games on his resume.

Castellanos and Ozuna have looked similarly valuable of late, though the comparison between the two is admittedly imperfect. After all, they do line up at different positions, and Castellanos – unlike Ozuna – had the benefit of reaching free agency without a qualifying offer hanging over his head. Still, as the two top outfielders on the market, it at least makes some sense to group Castellanos and Ozuna together. Which player would you rather sign?

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Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Faceoff: Wheeler Vs. Bumgarner Vs. Ryu

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It doesn’t take a baseball savant to figure out that Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg are the two best pitchers on the free-agent market. Cole is on a collision course with the largest contract a hurler has ever secured, a sure bet to outdo the $217MM Boston’s David Price received four years ago, while Strasburg could come within $20MM to $30MM of the $200MM mark in his own right. After those two aces, the starting market for free agents gets a lot less interesting, but that’s not to suggest it’s made up of nothing but back-end types. Quite the contrary, actually, as MLBTR forecasts that four other starters will land guarantees worth at least $50MM this offseason.

Former Met Zack Wheeler, longtime Giant Madison Bumgarner and ex-Dodger Hyun-Jin Ryu make up the remainder of the top five free-agent starters after Cole and Strasburg. Going by projected earning power, Wheeler is easily the most desirable of the trio. We’ve got him signing for $100MM over a half-decade, Bumgarner putting pen to paper on a four-year, $72MM accord and Ryu getting a three-year, $54MM contract. But you’re well within your rights to want Bumgarner or Ryu over Wheeler. Let’s take a closer look at the touted troika, and then you can vote on who’s the most appealing…

Zack Wheeler, RHP
Age: 30 in May
Qualifying offer? Yes

  • Wheeler missed almost all of 2015-17 while dealing with arm issues, including a Tommy John procedure, but he has emphatically put those days behind him. He has been one of the most productive starters in baseball over the past two seasons, having tossed 180-plus innings of sub-4.00 ERA, four-plus-fWAR ball in each year. But it’s not just the bottom-line production that has put Wheeler on clubs’ radars. It’s also his elite fastball velocity, which clocked in at a personal-high 96.7 mph in 2019. His fastball and curveball spin were also better than average, per Statcast, while his average exit velocity against (86.2 mph; 90th percentile) and hard-hit rate against (32.2 percent; 82nd percentile) were near the top of the league.

Madison Bumgarner, LHP
Age: 30
Qualifying offer? Yes

  • Bumgarner’s legendary postseason exploits are well-documented, but he hasn’t pitched a playoff game since 2016. Over the past couple years, Bumgarner’s days as a front-line starter have seemingly faded away. But he remains a major asset, someone just about any team would be happy to plug into its rotation. After a couple injury-shortened seasons, Bumgarner reestablished his durability in 2019 with 207 2/3 innings of 3.90 ERA/FIP ball and 8.8 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9. And Bumgarner’s fastball/curve spin rates were near the apex of the league this season, for what it’s worth.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP
Age: 33 by next season
Qualifying offer? No

  • No one in this group did a better job preventing runs this year than Ryu, who’s an NL Cy Young finalist after recording a 2.32 ERA/3.10 FIP, 8.03 K/9 against 1.18 BB/9, and a 50.4 percent groundball rate across 182 2/3 innings. Terrific results are par for the course for Ryu – on a per-start basis, he may be the No. 1 pitcher here – but age and injury history threaten to hinder him to some degree on the open market. Ryu missed all of 2015 and then threw anywhere from 4 2/3 to 126 2/3 innings in each season from 2016-18.

There you have it, a quick rundown of the three premier free-agent starters not named Cole or Strasburg. Considering their histories, their qualifying offer statuses and their potential earning power, who’s the one you’d most like to sign?

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