MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night. 6,886 people entered the contest. Below we’ve listed where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going. (Curious about the wisdom of the crowd last year? Click here).
1. Gerrit Cole – Angels (66.7%), Yankees (15.6%), Dodgers (4.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Padres (2.5%), Giants (1.0%)
2. Anthony Rendon – Nationals (60.1%), Rangers (16.4%), Dodgers (8.2%), Phillies (3.9%), Braves (2.3%), White Sox (1.8%), Angels (1.4%), Mets (1.1%), Cardinals (1.1%)
3. Stephen Strasburg – Nationals (52.3%), Padres (28.4%), Yankees (5.6%), Angels (3.8%), Phillies (2.5%), Dodgers (2.1%)
4. Zack Wheeler – Phillies (19.1%), Yankees (15.4%), Astros (10.4%), Angels (7.2%), Twins (6.8%), Padres (5.6%), Braves (5.3%), Mets (5.0%), Brewers (3.8%), White Sox (3.4%), Dodgers (2.8%), Cubs (2.4%), Rangers (2.4%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Nationals (1.7%), Red Sox (1.2%), Blue Jays (1.0%)
5. Josh Donaldson – Braves (40.7%), Rangers (24.1%), Phillies (9.6%), Nationals (5.4%), Cardinals (4.9%), Brewers (3.5%), Angels (2.3%), Mets (1.8%), White Sox (1.3%)
6. Madison Bumgarner – Braves (39.3%), Giants (11.4%), Twins (10.2%), Yankees (7.1%), Phillies (5.6%), Brewers (3.6%), Padres (3.5%), Angels (3.2%), Cardinals (2.8%), Rangers (2.5%), Astros (2.4%), Cubs (1.5%), Nationals (1.3%), White Sox (1.1%), Dodgers (1.1%)
7. Yasmani Grandal – Reds (28.9%), Brewers (18.1%), Braves (7.3%), Mets (6.9%), Angels (6.4%), Astros (6.2%), White Sox (5.6%), Rangers (3.5%), Nationals (3.4%), Rays (1.6%), Dodgers (1.5%), Cubs (1.4%), Red Sox (1.2%), Rockies (1.1%), Padres (1.0%)
8. Nicholas Castellanos – White Sox (30.7%), Cubs (23.8%), Indians (6.6%), Giants (4.4%), Rangers (4.3%), Marlins (3.3%), Angels (2.8%), Cardinals (2.7%), Reds (2.2%), Rays (2.1%), Diamondbacks (1.9%), Blue Jays (1.7%), Brewers (1.4%), Mets (1.4%), Twins (1.3%), Phillies (1.2%), Braves (1.2%), Padres (1.1%)
9. Hyun-Jin Ryu – Dodgers (46.5%), Rangers (8.7%), Angels (6.2%), Yankees (5.8%), Twins (4.5%), Padres (3.9%), Phillies (3.7%), Mariners (2.8%), Brewers (2.6%), Giants (2.5%), Astros (1.8%), Cubs (1.6%), Braves (1.4%), Cardinals (1.1%)
10. Jake Odorizzi – Twins (43.5%), Brewers (6.2%), Phillies (5.3%), Astros (3.9%), Yankees (3.4%), Angels (3.4%), Cardinals (3.2%), White Sox (3.1%), Rangers (3.0%), Cubs (2.7%), Padres (2.5%), Blue Jays (2.2%), Mets (2.1%), Braves (1.8%), Nationals (1.6%), Giants (1.6%), Rays (1.5%), Athletics (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%), Dodgers (1.1%), Red Sox (1.1%)
Where do the NL teams plan on using Castellanos?
He would be a 4th outfielder / bench bat unless they are playing an American League team, then he would be a DH.
no one is paying what he wants for him to sit on the bench. chanses are an NL team would cycle him between outfield and 3B to hide his defensive deficiencies.
lol. he isnt a bench guy.
4th OF? Do you even watch baseball?
No one is going to pay Castellanos to DH. AL, NL. It doesn’t make that much of a difference. And by the time the contract is over, the NL will have the DH.
i dont think anyone is giving him that long of a contract.
I think the DH will be in the NL after the next collective bargaining agreement. I think Castellanos is going to get a four year contract.
Are you his agent whispering that in his ear to make his market look more robust? Don’t hold your breath.
DH was the worst thing to ever happen to baseball. No more strategic double switches, pinch hitting situations, keeping your pitcher in or taking him out, etc. It’s why NL still more of baseball variety than just the long ball.
The worst thing to happen to baseball is The Wave. The DH is down the list aways.
But the average fan only cares about offense. While it might be true, you are in the minority who would rather see the strategy brought with a pitcher batting
Watching NL pitcher’s bat
I have been to over 1000 games in my life and not once did I ever go to see a manager do a double switch. Managing the pitching staff is the main part of the job. Now with advanced analytics handling the staff is way different. A lot of pitching changes are preset. It is much tougher to face a position player hitting ninth than a .050 hitting pitcher. The DH allows teams to rest key players without taking them out of the lineup.
In inter league play, AL clubs have collectively hold their breath each time a pitcher has to come to the plate and possibly run the bases. All the Minor Leagues use the DH so pitchers don’t hit and asking them to do so is worrisome. The DH in both leagues evens the playing field.
But the wave only comes back periodically while the AL uses the DH in every home game. Time to get rid of it and back to baseball. I’m an AL fan but it was invented to create offense which is no longer needed. Provided they protect salaries, dump it and let the managers manage.
Clearly Nicholas Castellanos would play RF as he did with the Cubs following their trade for him from the Tigers last summer. Fact is, Castellanos hasn’t fared well at any defensive position during his MLB career be it 3B or RF although he seemed adequate enough with the Cubs down the stretch.
It should also be emphasized that Castellanos has only started 39 games as a designated hitter despite spending the bulk of his 6+ year career in the AL with Detroit. Obviously this was due to the fact the Tigers had Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera occupying that role for most of the time but it also suggests that Castellanos has yet to prove he is capable of producing huge offensive numbers as a full-time DH.
I actually have him re-signing with the Cubs this offseason and if that comes to pass it will be awhile before he can show he is capable of becoming the next Nelson Cruz or Martinez, be it Victor or JD as a proven regular DH.
I hope the cubs do sign Castellanos. He pairs well with Schwarber in that outfield.
If a team can just pick a damn spot for him, he’d be an okay defender. Ever since he was drafted by the Tigers he was never able to put his foot down at a position and learn it. the kid will be 28 next year, give him one spot and he’ll be fine at it.
Castellanos has played RF for two straight years. He is bad at it.
Imagine learning how to play outfield for the first time while in the highest league in the world. The transition is hard for anyone, and he has had a steady increase in his defensive numbers
51 games with the Cubs, ZERO errors.
Because errors are the best way to track aptitude…
Castellanos is unplayable in the field. When he was with the cubs, he just pinch hit and was dh in al parks. They tried to play him in the outfield and he wandered into the bullpen area. Then he was in concessions, selling hot dogs. The ball was hit to him and he just stood there watching it go by.
Funny because he was on the Cubs for 51 games and he played 51 games in the outfield? I don’t think your numbers are correct
Correct. He didn’t DH one time for the Cubs.
You must be mistaken. MLBTR’s has said Castellanos is terrible defensively. He is limited to AL only teams. He is a DH only. One of the writers here actually saw Castellanos break late for a line drive down the line. No one else could have caught it, but none the less, Castellanos didn’t look cool fielding the ball. Not sure which advanced stat that is, but I’m sure it’s out there.
As a Tiger fan Castellanos can play the outfield in a small park. Comerica’s RF ate him alive. Wrigley (except for the ivy) is as good a park as any for him to stumble around.
And I see, no one thinks the Tigers are going to sign a top 50 FA. Is Eric Thames top 50?
Maybe Tanner Roark will absorb some innings in Detroit!
He’s primarily played LF so i’m assuming that would be NL teams thinking, for example, My guess was that Braves play him in LF and move Riley to 3B.
No he has primary playes RF not LF
When you hit 60 doubles in a year, I’m sure there will be some teams willing to take that hit.
51 games with the Cubs…ZERO errors. Schwarber, 6. Golden glover Heyward, 6. watch a game sometime then comment.
Don’t tell them to watch a game… the writers here get their undies in a bunch. Schwarber and Heywood look cool catching the ball and missing the ball. Castellanos doesn’t look cool enough for the stat guys.
Can’t make an error if you get a bad jump and take a poor angle. You have to make it to the ball for a chance at an error.
Castellanos would make fantastic plays on routine fly balls. You are right. Especially going back. He just didn’t get to balls that g
ood OF’ers routinely got to. He can come in on balls OK, but anything behind him is an adventure. That’s why he needs short porches in RF to survive.
Can’t be 12th in the league for putouts if you can’t get to the ball. 14th in chances. 15th in innings, so you can’t say it’s because he played all the time. (Not that that’s a bad thing) Range factor better than Judge and Gardner… hmm, I thought they were good fielders. UZR rating higher than Mallex Smith and Markakis… they are pretty good fielders.
I get it, MLBTR writers hate Castellanos defensively. That’s a given. But please, people, open your eyes and watch a game. The guy isn’t as bad as they say.
Nick Castellanos would like nice in our Jays lineup.. 1.7%, so you’re saying theirs a chance??
look*
All that means is that 1.7% of the voters are blue jay fans. 🙂
Lol
My answers are very similar expect that I chose Bumgarner to the Phillies, Castellanos to the Cubs, Odorizzi to the Astros, and Zack Wheeler to the Yankees.
I Chose San Diego for Mad Bum. Road ERA 5.29. Atlanta is a hitters park, I’m not sure why he would want to go there.
He is familiar with the NL West. There are three pitchers parks. Half his games are in San Diego. I picked San Diego.
Atlanta is basically right down the middle in terms of pitcher or hitter-friendly.
I watch a lot of Altana games, and if the ball is hit in the air, you’ve got a good chance to hit one out. They say the same about Houston.
Good HR parks are not necessarily hitters parks, but going from a horrible HR park to a good HR park is not something I think MadBum will embrace.
Doesn’t matter how many games you watch as the numbers say otherwise.
Atlanta is near where he’s from. Regardless of pitcher’s park or hitters park, it doesn’t really matter. That matters to guys who are about to be free agents and want to maximize their numbers.
Hey, this is almost exactly what I wanted to see. cool.
Me too. Great insight guys
Would have liked to see where we predicted all 50!
Enough of this Zack Wheeler to the Phillies stuff. The dude has worse career and contract year stats than Jordan Zimmermann.
So he screams Phillies, right ?
Yeah which is part of why it bothers me it is such a Klentak move.
It’s like the opposite of a Klentak move. He has signed guys who have performed for years and have arguably peaked (McCutchen, Robertson, Harper to an extent) rather than guys who supposedly have some untapped upside like Wheeler. Bumgarner, Donaldson, and many others fit the Klentak mold way more than Wheeler.
I’d point to the Robertson signing as well as the fact that he was so insistant that Pivetta or Velasquez we’re going to be top of the rotation pitchers pointing to raw talent that was never put together. Zack Wheeler is like the rich man’s Pivetta.
Klentak didn’t sign Harper, John Middleton did.
Middleton will sign Gerrit Cole, not Klentak. Same with Rendon.
Tim, what percentage do the White Sox have for Cole?
0.6%
thanks Tim!
Amazing how 60% of the polled think that Cole is simply pinning for SoCal and will sign with the Angels no matter what.
The what may be that Moreno thinks if this is all true he doesn’t have to offer Cole the highest dollar/year contract possible, and that Boras will actually let his client sign without either polling the rest of the market, or getting the ABSOLUTE top dollar contract possible.
Didn’t anybody see how Cole handled his “exit” interview right after the Astros lost the World Series….wearing a Boras hat, saying he wasn’t an employee of the team any longer……this guy will only sign with the Angels if he gets the $ highest dollar contract offered by any team…..Angels especially…..now is Moreno willing to do this….only time will tell but Cole isn’t giving any home town discount to anybody!
I don’t think you understand. You think best offer and the Angels are mutually exclusive, they are not.
This year, Moreno will make Cole a great offer. Maybe even the highest offer. If Cole wants to play for the Angels, he will take it.
If Cole wants to wait until February to sign, it wont be with the Angels.
You seem to be the only one who claims they know what Cole is thinking.
No, can you read because that is not what I said at all…I simply said that Cole may or may not sign with the Angels but he will not sign for a discounted contract just because its the Angels and its his hometown. Try reading comprehension before you let your mouth get in the way.
And by the way, I’m entitled to my own opinion which is what I stated!
Does anyone think Cole will sign for the Angels “no matter what”.
Does anyone think if Moreno wants Cole he will give him a lowball price.
Does anyone believe Boras has so much power that he “lets’ his client sign.
Usually when people have to create that many strawmen, they don’t have much of a point.
But you are entitled to your opinion.
That many strawmen is a terrible fire hazard.
Moreno doesn’t pay pitchers that much money. Cole will not be coming to Anaheim. I think he’ll end up in Philly. The Angels prefer the 2nd tier on pitchers: Zach Wheeler maybe.
Who are these pitchers that the Moreno didn’t sign? The Angels don’t compete with the Yankees or Red Sox. They don’t appear in this year.
So there is Scherzer and Greinke. Are there others? So they haven’t gotten one of the two free agent pitchers available? I don’t know how anyone can base an opinion on such little information.
The results don’t indicate a single person thinking he will “sign with the Angels no matter what.” They are in the best position to offer him the strongest contract considering spending capacity, future commitments, need, and how much they currently have invested in their starting staff ($1m or so for Ohtani, few million for Heaney.)
PHILLIES are a far better fit for Gerrit Cole than the Angels.
Moreno doesn’t pay elite pitchers.
Period
Do you follow the Angels? The leagues best pitchers typically don’t go on the free agent market. However, the Angels got Colon when he was the number 1 pitcher on the market and got CJ Wilson when he was the number one pitcher on the market.
Yes, they have not gotten Scherzer, Price, Greinke and Sabathia. But those pitchers don’t come on the market often enough for anyone to say they don’t go after top pitchers.
“got CJ Wilson when he was the number one pitcher on the market.”
ROFLOL!
CJ was the best pitcher in the market that year.
You can knock how it turned out or the year’s pitching class, but he’s right.
OK, no comeback. Got it.
CJ Wilson was a highly coveted free agent. He was 6th in Cy Young voting and made the All_Star team his first year with the Angles. Back to back years he led the AL in starts. Over a five year period he had 165 starts You can play revisionist history and say he wasn’t, coveted but that just makes you ignorant.
True that. He was one of those pitchers who peaked on his walk season, but he was heavily in demand.
Coincidentally, he also “came home” to OC. Time will tell if history repeats.
Cj was so coveted he was even offered a contract ny the Rangers.
*wasn’t
Don;t think so with teams like the Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, and yes even Boston willing to pay to reach the top….what makes you think the Angels are “best positioned” to make the top offer?
If the Angels signed Cole, Strasburg and Grandal Mike Trout might be in Millville wearing his Eagles jersey on Oct 1st.
Are you familiar with the Moustakas negotiations? There was a rumor, which I believe, that the Angels made him the best offer, Moustakas/Boras said no, and the Angels moved on and signed Cozart.
The Angels may very well make Cole the best offer. At that point, Cole/Boras will accept or reject, and the Angels will likely move on.
The Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees are already cap restricted and many people think they won’t go that far beyond it. I don’t know. But it’s a reasonable position.
As far as the Phillies, yes, I’ll believe they will pay top dollar. I believe the Angels will as well.
Dodgers could have close to $60 million to spend once they trade Joc Pederson and trade/non-tender Kike Hernandez.
I can’t believe only 3% of the public was on philly here. They were my choice….though I believe it’s equally as likely at this stage that he winds up in LAA. I figured the public would be heavily on the Angels but this was even further than I had imagined.
Let’s be honest here. Cole is going back to the Pirates since he just loved his time there so much.
Flashing the Boras hat with champagne still corked was a regrettable decision.
The Angels are NOT a Garret Cole away from contending. They need a 2B, C, 1B and of course SP. spending 275mil one one guy isn’t going to make them instant contenders. Oh, and I’m a huge Angel fan, I just live in reality.
LaStella was an allstar at 2nd…. Pujols isn’t great, maybe good at best but 90rbi 30 Hrs isn’t a void. But yes, when Stassi is your starting catcher… now that’s a void!
La Stella had one good year, Pujols can barely run, if you plan on contending, 1B,2B,3B also need to be addressed imo
If you don’t think Fletcher can play, you don’t know the Angels.
Why don’t you talk about the Angels having the best outfield in baseball? And with Upton and Adell, it’s gong to get better.
LaStella was an allstar at 2nd…. Pujols isn’t great, maybe good at best but 90rbi 30 Hrs isn’t a void. But yes, when Stassi is your starting catcher… now that’s a void! !
I don’t think these people follow the Angels. They Angels should grab two starting pitchers, one ace, and a catcher.
Then they need to be healthy. And I don’t know how second base is a problem.
Well it’s a good thing they are like $90m under the tax line and Cole would only cost them like $32m of that.
That’s just not true. You don’t need an elite player at every position to contend. Fletcher and LaStella have proven themselves at 3B and 2B. A catcher like Maldonado has a ton of value, and has proven that in Anaheim. 2 starting pitchers make them instant contenders…just not instant favorites.
SF Giants let Bumgarner walk. Give Cole Hamels a 2 year deal in the range of 15 per year with a option of 3rd year.
Giants have a ton of money to spend, they are like $90m under tax line. That being said, there is something to them recouping picks for MB and WS (hopefully) and signing non-QO guys (Hamels, Ryu, Hill, Castellanos, Puig [yes I know “they would never sign him”]) to keep their own picks in order to start rebuilding the farm as they go for Wild Card, which is well within reach if things break decently.
Castellanos would be great. Can play outfield and infield. Will be 28 years old to start the season. Not 20million a year guy tho.
Cole to the Nats.
Strasburg to the Stros.
Imagine what the parlay would pay if both hit?!?!?! Lol
SF Giants Should let Smith walk.
Make Shaun Anderson the new closer.
It’s funny how the baseball world chastizes the White Sox for never signing top free agents, and chastizing when when they pursue top free agents. If it’s not Detroit, or Boston, it’s Anaheim suddenly swooping in to keep the free agents out of Chicago. All the while, Jerry Reinsdorf doing his absolute best to undermine their ability to contend. Pathetic. I swear, the team might as well
move to Iowa or something.
Yankees will not touch free agency this year!
Knowing the Yankees, they’ll give 100 million to Wheeler and get injured early in the season. Cashman doesn’t rest until he gets to throw some cash around.
Conditioner is better! I leave the hair silky and smooth!
Last year I only guessed PHI – Bryce Harper correct. Every other free agent move I guessed wrong. There will be even more mid-season holdouts this year.
Three best guess:
TEX – Anthony Rendon
LAA – Stephen Strasburg
HOU – Jake Odorizzi
Always knew I’d become a 1%’er and with Odorizzi to the Dodgers… I’m finally living the dream! Earmark this day as the greatest ever!!!
Funny how so many ripped MLBTR for their predictions, then the polling group ends up largely agreeing with MLBTR.
im shocked only 17% yankees for cole
Serious question – why isn’t Madbum a top priority for the Cards? Workhorse mentality, left handed and fits our needs.
Also, who paid MLB to put the Cards down for a 1% chance on every free agent lol … everyone knows that it isn’t going to happen.
so the nats are going to drop 400+ million for rendon & strasberg?
Their payroll IS flexible enough to do so…
Wouldn’t mind seeing Rendon in a White Sox uniform. An infield of Abreu, Moncada, Tim Anderson and Rendon would be pretty solid..
That was my shot-in-the-dark pick, one of the 1.8 percent 🙂
50% with majority so far. The rest:
G. Cole – SFG
A. Rendon – DET
Z. Wheeler – LAD
Y. Grandal – LAA
N. Castellanos – CHC
You legitimately have Rendon going to Detroit or is that a typo?
Tigers, and he gets the best deal by a year or two.
I think Rendon worth $200+ million and 6-7 yrs. Though his numbers will decline in Detroit because the fences are deep and nobody will be on base when he comes up.
Agreed, but this was not a risky prediction. Rendon’s contract term will be for the rest of his career, hypothetically. Detroit, I hate to say it, is nearly forced into this. I think Rendon becomes a team leader and carries the torch for them between trips to the bank.
Aw man, I forgot to fill out a prediction sheet. Good luck to everyone!
I basically predicted the most popular pick for 8 out of 10 guys, but I picked the Dodgers for Cole and White Sox for Ryu, which is a wild card and that’s where I could gain the most. Had fun doing analytics for a couple of days for this contest, I looked at the situation of all the teams in terms of finance, strategy and roster needs. I actually really enjoy this winter free agent frenzy and all those trades, offseason can still be really fun!
From a 60 year Cardinal fan, it is very disgusting the Cardinals haven’t a Top 10 Free Agent since they signed Matt Holliday. The highest percentile of the Cardinals even being in the conversations for any of these top 10 for 2020, is 4.9% for aging Josh Donaldson.
Kind of shocked that the readers don’t think Mystery Team will get anyone. There are plenty of Boras FAs this offseason and Mystery Team always makes a strong push for them.
I surprised 2/3 think Cole is going to the Angels. They need a lot more than him. Based on some projections I’ve been hearing they could sign MadBum, Wheeler and Odorizzi for that kind of money and have a very good rotation.
Wheeler to the Astros seems like a great spot for Wheeler but I can’t see anyway in hell the Astros are going to dish out 100 million to a starting pitcher right now. They’re already past 200 million bucks on the payroll. I’m thinking they’re going to be playing in the bargain bin to go find an undervalued starter or two. Like they did w Miley last year.
Mets should jump on Castellanos. The sorely need a strong right handed bat and can always double switch him with Nimmo late in games. Play him in left because a misplayed ball is a double, not a triple. 10 bad defensive plays a year that may cost you 2 or 3 games will be more than made up for in 650 if his at bats replacing any at bats from Lagares or a AAA player.