MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night. 6,845 people entered the contest. Here’s where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going.
1. Bryce Harper – Phillies (34.0%), Dodgers (13.1%), Nationals (10.8%), Giants (9.8%), Cubs (8.5%), Cardinals (7.9%), White Sox (6.0%), Yankees (4.2%), Braves (1.4%), Astros (1.4%), Angels (1.1%)
2. Manny Machado – Phillies (45.8%), Yankees (36.5%), White Sox (5.0%), Dodgers (4.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Mets (1.5%), Cubs (1.3%)
3. Patrick Corbin – Yankees (74.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Brewers (2.5%), Angels (2.4%), Braves (2.1%), Cardinals (1.4%), Nationals (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.4%), Cubs (1.2%), Giants (1.1%)
4. Dallas Keuchel – Astros (16.4%), Angels (13.8%), Nationals (13.5%), Brewers (9.9%), Yankees (8.2%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (6.0%), Cardinals (4.1%), Reds (3.1%), Dodgers (2.1%), Cubs (2.1%), Giants (2.0%), Padres (1.9%), Rangers (1.5%), White Sox (1.4%), Twins (1.2%), Mariners (1.2%), Athletics (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%)
5. Craig Kimbrel – Braves (28.8%), Red Sox (25.4%), Cardinals (18.1%), Phillies (8.4%), Cubs (3.6%), Nationals (3.1%), Mets (2.6%), Astros (2.2%), Dodgers (1.5%), Angels (1.2%), Indians (1.2%)
6. Yasmani Grandal – Nationals (21.6%), Astros (15.3%), Dodgers (14.4%), Mets (11.3%), Braves (7.8%), Angels (3.4%), Brewers (3.0%), Phillies (2.7%), Mariners (2.6%), Rockies (2.5%), Red Sox (2.5%), Athletics (1.5%), Rangers (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%)
7. Nathan Eovaldi – Red Sox (51.5%), Brewers (5.6%), Astros (4.3%), Yankees (4.0%), Angels (3.6%), Padres (3.2%), Phillies (3.0%), Braves (2.8%), Dodgers (2.4%), Reds (2.3%), Nationals (2.1%), Cubs (2.0%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.6%), White Sox (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Twins (1.1%), Athletics (1.0%)
8. A.J. Pollock – Giants (22.9%), Indians (9.2%), Diamondbacks (9.0%), White Sox (6.7%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (5.7%), Mets (5.4%), Cardinals (5.0%), Nationals (4.6%), Cubs (3.4%), Rockies (3.4%), Mariners (2.5%), Athletics (1.7%), Dodgers (1.6%), Angels (1.6%), Astros (1.5%), Padres (1.5%), Blue Jays (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Brewers (1.1%)
9. J.A. Happ – Yankees (30.9%), Blue Jays (9.2%), Angels (8.2%), Brewers (6.5%), Phillies (4.7%), Astros (4.4%), Nationals (3.7%), Twins (3.1%), Athletics (3.1%), Braves (2.6%), Cubs (2.5%), White Sox (2.4%), Cardinals (2.3%), Reds (2.2%), Giants (1.7%), Mariners (1.7%), Dodgers (1.5%), Padres (1.2%), Diamondbacks (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%), Rangers (1.0%), Indians (1.0%)
10. Michael Brantley – Braves (30.8%), Indians (10.1%), Giants (9.5%), Phillies (4.9%), Cardinals (4.5%), White Sox (4.2%), Nationals (3.6%), Cubs (3.0%), Mariners (2.9%), Astros (2.8%), Diamondbacks (2.6%), Rockies (2.4%), Athletics (2.3%), Mets (2.3%), Blue Jays (1.9%), Angels (1.4%), Twins (1.4%), Rangers (1.2%), Padres (1.1%), Rays (1.0%), Dodgers (1.0%)
Top three or four teams for every player seem reasonable
Omg was I the only person that picked the Rays for Happ??
Yasmani Grandal – Nationals (21.6%). it should be before the kurk susuki signing right?
Yes — all of these picks were submitted by Sunday evening.
I assume so
I picked suzuki to go to the Nats so bam one for one, batting 1.000
Yeah, the Nats hadn’t signed Kart Syszemczski yet
Suzuki won’t be in D.C. 100%
Yes he will
Ummm, who wants to tell him?
Notice the Brewers topped out at just under 10% on any free agent…I think that’s more because they have no glaring needs rather than no money. Still, I think we expect Sterns to find someone who will turn out to be the bargain of the off season.
Anyone suggesting the Brewers sign a top 10 FA is wasting a pick. They only sign stiffs and hope they work out. Shirt term they’ve been fortunate but regression is a fickle thing.
They signed one last year.
Ehhh the Cubs aren’t dropping any major coin this offseason. Harper is a hard no for them.
I would say they’re waiting for Arenado / Trout FA
Trout will never see free agency. The Angels will give him a blank check
So will just about any other team.
So will any other team and one that can actually make the playoffs. Duh
He gone when the time comes
The “Hawk” chiming in even in retirement! lol
Why would the Cubs be waiting for Arenado?
Perhaps if and when it becomes clear that Kris Bryant won’t be amenable to a contract extension before next offseason. He’s already rejected a reported $200MM offer from the Cubs who may just trade him before he can become a free agent following the 2021 season.
If the Cubs actually deal Bryant this winter it’s possible that they may also be in on Manny Machado to replace him at 3B.
That cuz they tadingschwarber for betances cuz’
That cuz they tading schwarber for betan
Why would the Yankees want to give a good bullpen piece for an awful outfielder that is better suited for a DH role when they already have plenty of DH options? Beside the fact that they would have to throw in more than just him to get Betances and there isn’t much left on their farm anyway.
You’re stuttering B B B B B ILLY
Stop listening to the national media that can’t keep one team straight let alone all 30. Chicago will spend big time…book it.
What do fans know? They’re worse than sportswriters.
Have you heard of Mary Kay Cabot?
Cosmetics in sports lol
My dog is better than anybody on ESPN. So there’s that.
Let’s go Harper to Cubs!
I’m in that boat.
Why do fans think Atlanta would bring back Kimbrel for that kind of money?
Probably bc they are planning on going to the post season again next year and want a reliable closer.
They have to get leads to hold first. They had three leads in Game 3 and 4 and blew two of them and walked 27 people as a staff. Kimbrel is not going to solve that. If anything, he may contribute to that problem given his performance in this last postseason.
Max Fried blew the lead in game 3 and Venters took the loss in game 4. More reason to sign a premiere bullpen arm IMO
By that thought, shouldn’t they not go after a premiere arm and spread that money to upgrades? Bullpen needs multiple pieces, not just a closer.
Nope bc adding Kimbrel creates depth in the bullpen. Then you dont have to use Fried or Venters in those spots, you could use someone more reliable like Vizciano instead of having him close.
Blows my mind when people fail to recognize the totem pole that is an MLB pen. Kimbrel allowing all their relievers to slide down a peg would be huge.
Why does it have to be Kimbrel though? The “best” reliever on the market this year. They could sign Robertson and Miller for way less (total contracts) and all of their relievers could slide down 2 pegs.
Let’s hope that they don’t
Because they remember the 90’s
I like that I was in the minority for grandal. Picked twins for him and they are not one of the 14 teams on here
I picked Eovaldi to Colorado, high velocity guys shouldn’t be hurt so bad by the stadium, so I saw a fit. I guess that was a rare pick. I also picked Brantley to the Yankees. With the rest I got a popular pick. I actually analyzed all the teams finantial situation and their biggest needs for that contest, I am thrilled to see how will I do.
Yeah, because we all know how much pitchers want to pitch in Colorado. Lol
I bet Mike Hampton would like a do over on Colorado.
Wade Davis signed there last year, some pitchers might take the challenge. You still play around half of your games on the road and everyone has all the needed splits and stats.
When did Philly become a place anybody wants to live…cold rainy…crappy people.
“1.5 good years/4 bad years Aritta” and “cant hit .230 Santana” is all you can get.
Cold? Far from it. Rainy? Far from it. Crappy people? Best fans in sports. Arrieta is only signed for 3 years. Learn the game
Well philly is cold as is every other northern east coast city.
Ask JD Drew about Phillies fans and batteries.
ey has one hell of an arm, so lookout Aaron Boone!!!
MetsYankeesRedSox……
Ask Cliff Lee’s wife about Yankee fans that like to spit on and cuss out women. All teams have some bad fans.
Not to mention all the racists in Boston. I hate how Philledelphians always get singled out.
True about bad fans everywhere but historically Philly fans are known to be over the top. I where my Sox jacket in the Bronx but would never where ANY road jacket in Philly. My brother in-law takes clients to each of the four major sports. Most of the “stories” are true and not exaggerated.
Ugh, people still love to crap on Philly fans. This is really old news. There are bad and obnoxious fans everywhere. I live in Atlanta, home to dozens of idiots that seem to show up to every Braves and Falcons games I go to. Enough with dogging out Philly fans. Find a new angle.
Yeah, all the racists are in Boston. That’s where they all live. None in Philly.
Did the jellymeister tell you about her arm strength? :0)
You “wear” it well.
Yea its only 75 mil badly spent during our tinny window of contention…not a problem said no GM ever
Who is Aritta?
juicemane………….
Ask Jim Thome, Cliff Lee, Doc Halladay’s widow. Cole Hamels still has a home there, you can ask him. Need more?
How’s that Hosmer signing looking for you? Good job getting those “quality” free agents coming to beautiful San Diego. Players want to A) get paid and B) win. Whether or not they will have to put their beach umbrella in storage only mildly comes into their thought process…
Name all current mlb 1st baseman that have won a gold glove and a silver slugger.He is on a very bad team…he will turn it around
“Aritta” is only guaranteed 3 years with team options for the last two. If he’s bad, they simply won’t exercise those options
He’s not wrong about the Philly area and the northeast in general. The weather is nasty, and the people are angry/rude.
Most players don’t live year-round in the city they play in. Next to impossible with the way teams change rosters 3-5 times a week. And they play in those cities in the warmer 6 months.
They make enough money – even the minimum wage guys – to rent in the city play in and keep a home elsewhere,
Happens with all professional team sports athletes.
I’m not saying it matters mich to most professional athletes, just saying he’s not wrong about his assessment of Philly. It’s not terrible, but there are better places to live in terms of quality of life. For the people, I prefer the northwest or midwest. For the weather, Cali or southwest.
I think you might have it backwards. The weather is rude, and the people…we’ll you know.
I thought it was it was always sunny.
You sir, have won.
Let’s see….Yanks have the following OF on the roster for next year: Judge, Stanton, Hicks, Gardner, Frazier and Ellsbury. Judge will be in RF, Hicks in CF and Stanton most likely at DH/RF. They COULD move either to Judge/Stanton to LF if desired but chose not to last year for a prolonged period of time. Gardner tailed off in the 2nd half and took a pay cut to return. Who knows what to expect of Frazier and Ellsbury in terms of health.
W/ Didi out the Yanks only have switch-hitting Hicks as the only starter that swings from the left side in a stadium that favors left handed pull-happy power hitters. How is Harper (or Markakis, Brantly) not an OBVIOUS choice for the Yankees?
Yes, they need to address Didi’s replacement but it doesn’t need to be a $300-$400 mil expenditure. They could easily sign a glove 1st guy like Heckavvaria to play SS until Didi returns or slide Toress to SS and sign a Neil Walker/Jed Lowrie/Daniel Murphy type. I would rather they keep Torres at 2B tho.
Manny is not a need as much as Harper is, imo.
I have heard the Yankees prefer to keep Torres at second.
As far as last year, Stanton had the hamstring problem and Judge was out most of the second half of the season which may have kept the Yankees from setting up the OF like they wanted.
Hey Joe
Braves fan here…
Yanks need starting pitching & LH bat…. wouldn’t you love Harper w Judge in the Yanks OF ??
How about SP Julio Teheran for Giancarlo Stanton +33M ??
Who doesn’t like this trade ?
Braves fans ?…Phillies fans ?
Yankee fans ? and why ?
I’m not a Harper fan so i don’t want the Yankees to sign him.
As regards to Teheran, I think he’s a flyball pitcher which doesn’t work in Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees don’t f***ing need Harper or Machado! Not sure why everyone thinks they do or is it just cause your owner’s name is Steinbrenner?
Not nearly enough cash going to Atlanta. Can’t see them paying but if they did, I would ask for 50% of the salary for the last five years. I believe some of that would be owed by FL so it would be doable.
Julio has very little value with how inconsistent he is. If you disagree then please tell me where the heck was he during the NLDS.
I don’t understand why people are so down on Stanton. His “bad” 2018 season saw him hit almost 80xbh. He has some blemishes but if that’s a bad season then his normal performance is outstanding.
Southbeach… agree. Stanton carried the team while Judge was out.
Stanton is on a huge contract that severely limits his overall value. It’s the same reason you’re open to trading him.
Any team who takes his contract is on the hook for around 30MM annually for the next 9 years (he’s not going to get a better deal so there’s no way he opts out).
I totally agree with you on Harper, but not the other two. Brantley has too much of an injury history, and Markakis slid in the second half. Markakis is up there in age, and Murphy is horrible at second.
This team realistically needs to address first, and Harper is rumored to be ok with it. I wouldn’t mind seeing Cutch back in LF if it’s on a reasonable short term deal. I think Wade could handle second, while Torres can go back to his natural position. Signing Corbin is a given, and another need is a BP arm. Finally see what they can get for Gray..Cincy you’re on the clock.
Was surprised that Grey wasn’t part of the Paxton trade. This suggests to me the return on Grey will be better than I thought.
Could it be possible that the Yankees have a trade in the works since they signed Pax? I just can’t see Sonny pitching half of his starts in the Bronx again. He seems to fit the type of pitcher that the Padres are looking for. They won’t survive the bidding war for Eovaldi and I doubt the Padres will actually empty the farm for Thor.
The Yanks traded for James Paxton, will most assuredly deal Sonny Gray and be in on signing FA Patrick Corbin as the fans suggested, Going hard after Corbin may even be more likely now that their most MLB ready starting pitching prospect Justus Sheffield was included in the Paxton trade to Seattle.
You just can’t have too many quality left-handed starting pitchers in Yankee Stadium. A rotation featuring southpaws Paxton, Corbin and C.C. Sabathia along with righties Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka would be quite formidable provided they can all remain healthy in 2019. That’s a big “if”!
Why do people question the Cashman? Don’t you stat geeks have anything on his success with making trades?
IMO fans who enjoy transactions and the team building side of baseball (ie the types who visit a site like this and comment) should use critical thinking and question moves by any GM. Use your mind to evaluate instead of just giving a move an automatic thumbs up because it was done by a GM that you respect
Why not save some money and let Voit be the starting 1B. He is literally the invisible man. People disregard him like he doesn’t even exist.
4.2% of all entries are right about Harper
95.8% disagree
Now that is a stat ey can blindly get behind!!!
Can you tell us how many entries there are? Thanks for the numbers.
6,845
“6,845 people entered the contest. “
Sorry I skipped the first paragraph. I just down-voted myself
LOL up-vote for that
It must suck to be a Mets fan and see your team bluff moves on every big free agent each offseason. Being cautious is smart, but the Wilpons are operating like a mid-tier market in a big city.
You must be a Yankee fan……
Well except for Cespedes, he’s not wrong.
Well I’m 4 out of 10 based on the top choices. Not too bad I guess.
I still think Donaldson is a top 10 free agent. I mean easily over Happ.
where can we go to see our picks? the email left off everything starting with the Lance Lynn pick
Just click “view entire message”
Didn’t see that at the bottom. Thanks
No worries. I was wondering the same thing too at first
If you’re using GMail, there’s a message at the bottom that says:
[Message clipped] View Entire Message (w/ a link)
Not sure about other mail outlets.
I really hope 8.2% are wrong about Dallas Keuchel going to the Yanks. It would be a shame for baseball and the world to lose that epic beard.
What the hell sf giants need AJ pollack???
Just trying to be cheap???
You are very bad team
A J pollack alone not do anything
Good on paper fit. We will see how far away the Giants think they are from contention and how far ownership is willing to go to field a winning ballclub with so much dead money on the books.
Really hope the giants don’t sign pollock. His injuries have came from diving plays in the outfield, and he’s going to have to do a lot of that in the spacious CF of ATNT. Also, Duggar needs to get everyday playing time to reach his ceiling.
Harper- Cards
Machado- Philadelphia
Eovaldi- Boston
Brantley-Cubs
Happ and Corbin- Yanks
Don’t care about the rest
I think Harper will go to STL too, but I think Machado will balk Philadelphia and go to a team like Atlanta or Washington instead.
Washington has Turner at short.
Manny isn’t a short stop lol
The Nats also have a pretty fair option at 3B in Anthony Rendon which is probably why nobody but Cuddy Fox had Machado going to Washington.
Manny thinks he is.
Cubs will NEVER sign an oft-injured Brantley. Wherever you read that the writer was drunk.
Was I the only one putting Athletics for Eovaldi? They were in on him at the deadline and it makes sense for them to go after an extra SP.
Picks I’m most confident about are Machado to the Phillies and Corbin to the Yankees. Everything else is up in the air.
I don’t think Patrick Corbin will be a Yankee because Cashman won’t want to spend that much even though he’s one of the best starting pitchers available. I see Cashman trading for Paxton or Kluber. He rarely spends money on pitching and I want Corbin to be a Yankee but honestly he might not be worth what he will be asking. But I still think Cashman needs to overpay for a Corbin if he wants to be a World Series contender
Not sure why the Padres are listed as potential suitors for any outfielders. We have about 3 too many as it is.
Since the top 50 was released, two names were taken off the board (Sabathia and Ryu) and Tim didn’t give his picks for Wilson and Iglesias. what say you?
Not that anyone cares but my picks were:
Harper to SF since i think they will keep pouring money into the machine.
Machado to the Phillies since I think they will spend stupid type money.
Corbin to the Yankees because it makes too much sense.
Keuchel to the Reds because I think they desire to make a statement and NEED pitching enough to make an overpay.
Kimbrel to Atlanta since despite it not being likely because of price my heart wants him back in Atlanta and I’m hoping that his struggles in the post season lowers his price to a point the Braves can handle.
Grandal to Houston because I think despite the added payroll they want to keep pushing for the prize.
Eovaldi to the Atros since they’re in dire need of quality starters.
Pollock to the ChiSox since I think they seriously want to improve but will miss out on Harper and Machado.
Happ to the Yankees since I think they will want to double down on improving the pitching (and maybe I’ll get one of either Corbin/Happ right LOL)
Michael Brantley (and McCutchen too) to Atlanta because I feel they will sign one or the other and I was hoping to get one right.
As reviewing them 6/10 I can agree with the number one
But Brantley pollock Eovaldi and Keuchel I kinda doubt that one
I’m not sure Boston spends this off season and I cannot really see Houston resigning Keuchel
Not like it’s going to take Boston 30m/year to re-sign Eovaldi.
They have to plan for next offseason when they lose two starters
They lost their closer as well
Apparently every teams rep has called about Eovaldi. The price just keep going up.
People who think Cardinals will sign Harper are nuts. Cardinals will never ever spend that kind of money. I wish and hope I am wrong. Get the same excuse from management I like where our team is now. Sign Moose or take a gamble if Donaldson would sign a 1 or 2 year pillow contract and drop some serious cash on the bullpen multiple arms there are a lot available
How many correct picks does everybody think will win this? I’m guessing 12/50 wins the prize.
The last winner a few years back was at 15 I think. I remember because I came in with a staggering 5 that year. Oh well, at least I got Suzuki correct so far.
Lol that’s a joke both Harper and Machado to the Phillies?! What are you guys smoking :-/
So they’re gonna dish out around $700,000,000 to two people? That makes so much sense
Yes, they’re that desperate in Philly. The proximity to NY has given them major inferiority complex in all things.
One good thing I must say about Philadelphians: they are fiercely loyal to their town, including all it’s imperfections. I can’t say the same thing about most Chicagoans.
I think the Yankees should get Harper Manny Corbin Dallas kluber then that is a world series championship and then get Daniel
lol, money must grow on trees in new York
lol, I am moving to New York because money must grow on trees there
whoops, double comment
Yankees fans love shortcuts. The Yankees created this monster by blocking a salary cap in MLB.
Yep. The Steinbrenner doves defeated the Reinsdorf hawks which made the labor unrest in the mid-1990’s a win for the players and a big loss for the owners and fans of small and mid-market teams. Such a waste too considering the loss of so many games including the entire 1994 postseason.
On behalf of all sane Yankee fans. Please stop.
Some people just can’t.
I don’t see the Yankees signing any of the hitters. The Steinbrenner kids aren’t like the old man. If you count Stanton, though a trade, they only jumped in on Elsbury and McCann. They have been frugal. You would have to put Harper in CF or push Stanton or Judge to full time DH. They need a quality starting pitcher and not a hitter.
I could see Harper ending up with the Giants, as he is young and gives them the big hitter they need. The Phillies may be in if they can move Santana.
Machado could end up with the White Sox. I wouldn’t want my team to sign him.
I’m confused. why couldn’t Harper play LF???? We have a need there.
Assuming the Steinbrenner brothers will pay the luxury tax, like the old man who goes to full time DH? I would expect Judge and Stanton to start in the corners. Otherwise you are looking at mixing Judge and Stanton into a RF rotation and I doubt either one wants that at this point in their careers.
Bro Aaron Hicks along with everyone says…wtf
What Will The New York Yankees Rotation Look Like,If They Re-Sign J.A. Happ & Also Sign Patrick Corbin.
Pretty damn good with James Paxton already on board and Sonny Gray departing soon. That would give them 6 quality starters which might be needed considering the health issues surrounding Masahiro Tanaka, C.C. Sabathia and Paxton. It’s pretty safe to assume that the Yankees won’t be bidding on both A.J. Happ and Patrick Corbin now but could still use another cheaper veteran option as a backup to a starting 5 of Luis Severino, Paxton, Tanaka, Corbin and Sabathia.
Pollock to A’s GET SOME
He turned down a 1 year $18 million dollar contract. I don’t see the A’s spending $20 mil+ for a guy who can’t stay healhty.
Everybody sleeps on the Reds…a splash wouldn’t shock me. The old man wants to win (I admire him, knowing good people who have known him for decades) and the money is there, and so is the offense. I wouldn’t be shocked by a flurry of moves.
Reds fan here. I think they need to trade the one year left of Scooter, and the 2 years left of Igleasis for some young, starting pitching. Their top prospects are, predominantly, infielders, so they could fill Scooter’s spot in-house. They’re not going to go anywhere until they get, at least, decent pitching. What do you think? Scooter and Iggy bring in a good haul?
The Halos need to sign a FA or 2 with holes in SP, RP, RF, 2B, 3B, C. Look for Maldanado, and Corbin to be in SoCal soon. Angels will trade for more pitching. Trout not resigning is telling. Pollock could be in the works. Machado a long shot until or if Trout signs. BTW here is to hoping Albert retires. (please…Oh I so hate to beg, I know it’s undignified.).
Can’t wait for the first shi@@@ team to spend big on that one guy that doesn’t make them not a shi@@@ team.
So if you have a guy at less than 10%, he has a decent shot