Yesterday, the Brewers and Padres linked up on an interesting four-player swap. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd discussed the players involved in the immediate aftermath of the deal, but it’s worth pondering a little further.
San Diego sent middle infielder Luis Urías and left-hander Eric Lauer to Milwaukee in exchange for outfielder Trent Grisham and right-hander Zach Davies. It’s the rare swap involving four current MLB players, three of whom have yet to even reach arbitration. Unlike many deals where a current contender trades future value to a rebuilding club to upgrade the roster in the short-term, this swap hinges mostly on the talent of the players involved. As Padres GM A.J. Preller put it (via MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell), “sometimes, there are deals because of salary issues. Sometimes, there are deals because someone’s getting toward free agency, because clubs are contending or not contending. In this case, it’s just a good baseball trade.”
For the most part, the deal turns on which of Urías and Grisham one prefers. Each has been a top 50 overall prospect in the past, per Baseball America, but Urías entered 2019 as the more acclaimed of the two. Grisham had a breakout season in the high minors last year, with a cumulative .300/.407/.603 slash in 441 plate appearances between AA and AAA before making his MLB debut in August. Urías, too, mashed in AAA last season (.315/.398/.600 in 339 PA), but scuffled in limited big league action. Grisham was a bit better in his small sample of MLB time, even if a misplay in right field in the NL Wild Card game ended the season on a sour note.
Of course, that one play was not the reason Milwaukee pulled the trigger on this deal, as Brewers GM David Stearns told reporters (including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). On the whole, reviews of Grisham’s defense in the corner outfield tend to be positive, even if, despite 93rd percentile sprint speed, he’s not viewed by many public outlets as a long-term option in center. Urías offers more defensive value as a middle infielder, although reviews tend to be mixed on him at shortstop, where he figures to play in Milwaukee with Keston Hiura locking down the keystone.
It’s a bit tougher to get too excited over the pitchers involved, although both are certainly useful big leaguers. Davies has the stronger bottom line results, with a 3.91 career ERA and an even better 3.55 mark in 159.2 innings in 2019. He’s never posted a 20% strikeout rate or a 10% swinging strike rate in a full season, though, and the soft-tossing contact manager has generally fallen out of favor in today’s game. Lauer’s profile isn’t dramatically different. His strikeout and walk rates are higher than Davies’ but each is lower than average. Lauer, though, hasn’t had the success Davies has had to this point keeping runs off the board. Davies is more expensive ($5MM arbitration projection) and comes with three fewer seasons of team control, but neither hurler figures to threaten either team’s bottom line moving forward.
How would you grade this deal for both teams?
First, Milwaukee..
(poll link for app users)
And San Diego…
(poll link for app users)
both D. Padres overplayed their hand with Urias and the crew traded for a less proven pitcher and a AAAA utility-man
Lmao
Adrian I know you know Urias is an automatic all star but some people aren’t sure. Some people need to see some major league success before punching his all star ballot. I’m not saying he can’t reach that but settle down not everyone has to be as high on a prospect as you are
“Major league success”
Oh, you mean like his .371 OBP in September once they stopped jerking him around the diamond and let him play every day?
Preller biffed it here and you will realize that in 7 months. i am expecting an apology when you do.
Brewers: D
Padres: C
Nonsense!
@sherlock I agree somewhat but I gave the Padres a B because they got the better pitcher. Davies is a solid rotation piece and Lauer just isn’t. Grisham has a much better bat than Urias which should even out the defensive aspect Urias brings. If Urias could swing at least a decent bat I would have given the Brewers a C. People are sleeping on Zach Davies and they shouldn’t he’s a nice addition for the Padres who quite frankly aren’t going to miss Urias at all.
Agree, Davies is the surest bet out of the 4, plus now he gets 3 great defensive INF behind him instead of Moose, Arcia, Aguilar and Shaw, who are all terrible (why doesnt Milwaukee care about defense?)
@Strike Four
The Brewers rely on analytics and defensive placement. They basically feel like they are smarter then everyone else. It is hard to argue with the fact they made the playoffs the last 2 seasons and won their division in 2018. Something seems to be working.
Arcia’s got a great glove. Shaw and Moose are more than adequate at 3B, Aguilar is gone? Hiura is the only defensive liability in the infield and he wasn’t there for most of Davies time in Milwaukee.
? I think Grisham will be a long time MLB OF player. Good pop, work ethic, good clubhouse guy.
I’m not sure about what infield D is in your memory in reference to Milwaukee, In 2018 they had a top 10 D. Last year Moose was top 10, Arcia top 15, 2nd base platoon top 15, 1st base platoon top 15. Overall top 15 D. Aguilar and Shaw didn’t play most of the season btw.
The Brewers need more consistency with hitting from the SS as Arcia is just not coming around after quite a while of waiting, especially as we let Grandal leave. Not sure if Urias is the answer though.
I think your right about Davies as the best of the 4, but I’m sure Stearns has something in mind. Too early to grade until spring training and understand the whole plan for the Brewers offseason.
Why are people including Moose? He is a free agent it’s irrelevant what he did until he’s signed and in the equation for Milwaukee
Why are people including Moose? He hasn’t signed with anyone so he’s irrelevant to the Milwaukee equation unless he signs a deal
The people who still insist that Moose is a butcher on the infield are people who have never really watched him play. I’m not saying he’s the second coming of Brooks Robinson, but he’s more than playable defensively.
Yeah, his name is Christian Yelich.
Wrong, his terrible 2B defense is tolerated (his 3B defense is meh but not terrible) because of his offense, which isn’t a bad thing, I’m just saying Milwaukee has terrible defenders everywhere. Arcia is the worst SS I’ve seen since Jeter. Homerism abounds once again. It’s ok fanboys, the players on your fave team are allowed to be fallible.
By contrast Padres don’t shift defensively and don’t use analytics. I have heard padres can’t spell analytics. ! LOL
You have no idea what you are talking about. Arcia is becoming far more consistent and the fact is that the guy with THE BEST RANGE in all of baseball is bound to get to some of those balls a bit awkwardly and only makes errors on throws when he’s trying to make the play.
AND, you moron, he did put himself in 2nd place all time among Brewer fielders last year with over a 50 game streak without an error (and oddly made a glove error to break it).
The Brewers can have crap for defenders around the IF–and Thames grades middle of the pack, but would be far better if they actually counted throws to first equally as ground balls, because he’s a wizard at making scoops and ALWAYS makes the right decision about coming off the bag instead of letting the ball get by, and he makes the sweep tag at well over 90% on those plays–BECAUSE Arcia is THE best and most dominant fielder in the entire game.
All defensive stats in all sports are completely fraudulent and tell a lying story.
He’s good. It would be clear if you had watched the same 140 games I did last year.
Agree. Strike Four has no idea what he’s talking about with Milwaukee.
You mean Tatis, Machado and 16 error man over at first?
Aguilar was traded to the Rays awhile ago, which they actually just released
larry48, Former manager Andy Green used defensive shifts on a routine basis. By routine, I mean every game.
Don’t confuse him, with the facts.
He’s a 4th OF at BEST.
“Much better bat” is a GIGANTIC stretch. Grisham looked awful until last year, and even then, he didn’t particularly impress in the bigs.
True. Grisham had his moments in pressure situations with the bat but Urias has the much better overall offensive record in the minors. Besides, finding corner OF bats is a lot easier than finding guys capable of playing SS who hit like Urias did in the minors. Grisham’s #49 ranking by BA was an outlier and it was from pre 2016. Urias was consensus top 25 a year ago. Davies has a better track record overall than Lauer, but he’s only controllable for 2 more years and is more expensive and the edge isn’t that great. Brewers get a top prospect to replace or at least compete with Arcia, and a controllable cheap rotation arm. They save money in the deal, and are well positioned financially to make a big FA splash.
Their minors records were almost identical.
Grish had mini slumps at times, but was dominant when he wasn’t in those 3-4 game slides with no hits.
And short slides like that are very good for a guy who only played 43 games, didn’t know ANY of the MLB pitchers and had to consult with Grandal and Cain before every game, and who hadn’t reached that 150 AB plateau by the end of the season (which is about where rookies stop being rookies and you know what you have).
He could be as big a bust as Brinson, but he could be a superstar (and he’s way better in the field than Yelich or Braun, but not as good as Gamel or Cain).
Almost identical? Grisham had a great 140 at bats last year at AAA in a league where everyone hit 300. Prior to that, he was a 230 hitter with ok power and great speed. Urias has been a top hitter who gets on base and doesn’t strike out at every level he’s played before he made it to the majors. Grisham wasn’t a top 100 prospect for the past 2 years, Urias was top 30. So, no they are not anywhere nearly identical.
They both had an OPS of almost exactly .800 for their entire minor league careers.
I do believe the Crew got a great prospect and hope he fulfills that All Star potential.
I saw every one of Grisham’s at bats last year. The kid has an approach and is focused and knows what he’s doing. He would always break out of his slumps quickly. He hasn’t even reached his 150 at bats to learn the league a little.
He didn’t seem overwhelmed like Brinson the year before and I think he can be a borderline star (or go mildly bust and be a 4th or 5th). We did all love him here and the Pads should not mess with his weird grip because it helps him to relax and when he bears down to swing the super slo mo shows that his hands go into a conventional position.
He’s also a better defender than Yelich and I thought his speed was better than Cain’s (someone said he’s poor at the 93rd percentile, but that’s actually elite and only 7% have better speed than Grisham; he made plays look easy that Cain is now struggling for and getting hurt on). I was hoping to see him develop but our roster has bigger holes in other places and we have OF prospects in the wings recently added to the 40.
Urias will be an All Star in 2020. And because Preller is an idiot it will now be with the Brewers. You’d think he’d have learned after what happened with Trea Turner.
Adrian Gonzalez German Marquez, “Urias will be an All Star in 2020”. I like Luis and wish him well, but that is a serious reach,
No you don’t like him and no you don’t wish him well.
All Star in 2020. Bank on it.
” … who quite frankly aren’t going to miss Urias at all.”
Are you serious bruh? Like who even is their 2nd baseman now?
I WILL miss Luis Urias. I attended the Monday night Padres vs. Orioles game last season. Luis knocked an HR to RF! He certainly showed flashes of brilliance, but so did Trent Grisham in MIL. In Trades, to GET teams have to GIVE. The trade could work for both sides. Certainly, it’s too early to tell.
“He certainly showed flashes of brilliance, but so did Trent Grisham in MIL.”
Urias showed more. Like a LOT more.
“In Trades, to GET teams have to GIVE.”
That’s a lie. MIL didn’t here. WAS didn’t when they got Trea Turner for Steve Souza.
“The trade could work for both sides. Certainly, it’s too early to tell.”
This is the trade that earned Preller his pink slip.
Adrian Gonzalez German Marquez, Urias and Grisham are STILL considered prospects at this time. This trade will take at least a full season to determine a true winner and loser. I will agree with you on one point you made. IF Urias BOOMS and Grisham BUSTS….bye, bye AJ Preller. He is on thin ice at the Padres GM.
No they are not considered prospects. They graduated last year.
Urias will be MILES better than Grisham when all is said and done.
Grisham hasn’t been a prospect since he was drafted – that’s the only time he was ranked in the top 100, and he was ranked 99 by BP.
Freaking joke of a trade.
Urias will end up being the best player in the deal. Davies is an average starting pitcher at best and Grisham is solid, but not the prospect Urias is.
Reggie Bars, Both Luis Urias and Trent Grisham were TOP 50 prospects entering 2019. Luis was rated higher, but hairs are being split. Rating prospects is very subjective. This trade could help BOTH teams, as a Padres fan I hop[e that it does.
No, Grisham wasn’t even top 100
Davies will fair better in a more pitcher friendly ballpark.
His pitches move a lot so he can be squeezed by a frugal ump and the result is ugly. More often than not he was good, but was not going deep into games often.
Grish was good here. Took him a long time to get minor league success, but I think he could be a good hitter one day, like a Brantley. Big situations didn’t rattle him and that play in the wild card game is the exception not the rule for him.
Brewers get an A for dumping a pitcher who is mediocre at best and a prospect who is going to be a bust like Lewis Brinson. They picked up a lefty version of Davies with slightly more velocity and who will play very well in Miller. The SS is already better than Arcia in a lot of ways.
Pads get a C. They gave up on a potentially valuable prospect and picked up a couple of win now players, but they aren’t getting over the top with those two.
Brewers got a left handed pitcher with more years of control and cost savings of a few million. Also, traded a 4th outfielder for one of last years top prospects. How Sterns got them to throw in a lottery ticket is beyond me, just genius.
When Uriah’s hits .220 and Lauer gives up HR after HR in that little league park you’ll change your mind.
His season was marred by getting bombed in Colorado, he might be the 1st pitcher to ever have that happen…
I’m shocked that Twentyforty would have a negative take on a Brewers move.
And Davies has an ERA over 7 at Petco.
Moron. It’s only the right field line in Miller that is easy. You have to have plus plus power to take it out in center and in left.
Uriah will blossom into a 25 HR guy down that RF line.
Lauer will nullify the lefties who use that line, and the righties will not be able to turn hard enough on him to get it over the wall much. He will be better than Davies.
It’s an A for the Brewers because all of these guys are cheap and under control for a long time (and better than what we had).
Pads will sob when Grisham is as big a bust as Brinson and Davies starts the downside of his career and becomes worse season by season.
Pads get a C or a D because those two are not win now acquisitions.
220 is what Arcia bats now. At least Uriah walks about 100 points higher than his BA. his ceiling has much higher potential than Arcia.
Lauer doesn’t even matter. He’s just a throw-in. The deal is all about Urias.
Reggie Bars, The Brewers got a good LH pitcher in Lauer. He had 8 wins last season and ate almost 150 innings. He’s no All-Star, but he will be a solid 4th or 5th man in the rotation, and the only lefty.
☝Yeah! This! (All about Urías)
Brewers get a B.
Padres get a P.
and you get a K
C. Would have preferred to use urias as a chip to unload myers. Padres needed a lefty OF bat bad but until they move myers contract the offseason will be considered a loss for me.
I get the davies move. Veteran cheap innings. Same with pomeranz coming back (morejon lucchesi etc a lot of young lefties)
Padres have some pen arms they can move naylor and a few prospects to move myers.
Move myers (oriopes or royals 1B DH him)
Get a 2B
Sign Strasburg OR go cheap and sign roark to bolster the experience and depth.
They’re not moving Myers. They’ll never include the prospects necessary to unload his entire contract.
“Get a 2b”
Lol it’s like a grocery list
Myers to yankees for Happ and more pieces to clear $ or – minor league players. . They took Headly from us. An idea until I look up Myers salary
Lol won’t happen
Rather have Hosmer
Agreed. Urias’ value was the ‘add-in’ to a trade. Whatever it was to move Myers or acquire a front line pitcher in a broader package, I saw his value in that type of an arrangement.
No his value was and is as an All Star 2nd baseman and Preller just gave him up for basically nothing.
Why would the Royals want Myers? They unloaded him once already and is a bust making $85 million
They wouldn’t. They would want the prospects the Padres would be attaching to him.
Send Myers to KC with some prospects for Whit Merrifield. SD would have to eat that contract, but it would be worth it.
There is no “Merrifield to SD” trade that includes Wil Myers. Not one.
Baltimore already has several 1B DH types. They also have a terrible contract in Chris Davis to pay off. Why would they want Myers?
Today is not a day for arbitrarily issuing antiquated letter grades for decisions that are months if not years away from being tangibly judged.
Today is a day to carve the holiday yak!
Hey now….
I think they should have waited a yr but at least we go a starting shortstop who can hit somewhat
Urias is a much better prospect than grisham who projects as a 4th OF and lauer is about as good as davies but with several more years of control. Terrible trade by the padres, that is a steal by the brewers. Lauer is actually projected to be slightly better than Davies who had massive batted ball luck last year.
This is the part being missed: Lauer has absolutely zero spot on a Padres team that is about to graduate Gore, Patiño and others to the majors. The additional years of control are pointless. Lauer would have been placed on waivers within 2 years at most – possibly much sooner. He had no spot in that rotation THIS COMING YEAR. During that time Davies is the better pitcher, albeit more expensive. People think Lauer had a future with the Padres. He had zero future with them. Not a rotation piece ever again in SD. Simultaneously, while the future cannot be predicted, there are 2 far higher ceiling middle infielders, (Edwards and Abrams) who are a couple of years away, and 1 close to ready (Miller) who is pretty much ready to go. Sorry for the long response, but the trade is about what the team has, and where it will be.
Wow that is a lot of faith you have in prospects.
Kind of how all successful rebuilding teams work, no?
About half the faith people had in Urias a year ago – an OBP machine who’s going to hit 300 with surprising power and hold down 2b for the Padres for the next 10 years. Until Preller gave him away.
CJ Abrams.
Xavier Edwards.
Look them up guys…Urias dominated the upper minors. I hate to see him go, but the Padres have other options now and later…the now is probably externally. It is November. Urias lacked speed and often times looked like he was swinging a wet newspaper against velocity. It’s a risk, but I’m not destroyed over it and I liked a lot of things about Urias.
Urias hit fastballs better than any other pitch. And the two guys you mentioned are at least 2 years out and aren’t guaranteed to be as good as Urias or even to stick as starters. The only reason trading Urias would be acceptable is if they didn’t have to get someone externally to replace him.
No, not all successful rebuilds are overly reliant on home grown talent.
Astros and Cubs say hi
Astros and cubs bought & traded for pitching staffs. But position players were home grown for the most part.
B both sides
Might even tilt in padres favor but win or loss don’t be known for years
Boy, if this trade didn’t reveal Urias’ actual value, I don’t know what will.
The Padres traded him for a guy who might not even be their 5th best OF and for a soft-tossing pitcher who can’t strike people out. And to make it worse, they had to throw in a left-handed pitcher with 5 years of control remaining.
I honestly think that when all is said and done, this trade will be fairly inconsequential.
I grade it as a C all around.
Correction: Grisham is better than Margot and Myers. He projects as their everyday LF according to roster resource.
Strike Four, Margot and Grisham should split time in CF. I was hoping that would be Franchy Cordero’s role, but he can’t stay healthy. My guess is that AJ will find a way to move Myers. I wouldn’t be surprised if Naylor is traded too I like him, but is destined to play for an AL Team, kind of like Franmil Reyes.
“Boy, if this trade didn’t reveal Urias’ actual value, I don’t know what will.”
All it reveals is how in over his head Preller is as a GM.
“I grade it as a C all around.”
WTF are you talking about?? This is a YUUUUGE win for the Brewers. They just got an All Star 2B for basically nothing!
The Pads do get points for moving a guy who was going to be blocked by supposedly better prospects coming up.
He could have been DFA for nothing next fall.
One. You don’t know that Edwards or Abrams will be better than Urias, or even that they will be major league caliber.
Two. No, Urias is not going to be DFA’d for nothing after one year.
Was. The proper grammar is to say he was not going to be DFAd.
He WOULD HAVE BEEN if the Padres had kept him on the roster. They would have had to make a decision on him and DFA would have been the only choice because it would have been an open competition and he likely would have gotten squeezed for playing time and then DFAd to open a spot for someone else at another position.
Happens every day. They made the move now because value was to be had now and they knew it wouldn’t be later.
“He WOULD HAVE BEEN if the Padres had kept him on the roster. They would have had to make a decision on him and DFA would have been the only choice…”
You’re dead wrong Spike! He would have been the starting 2B through at least 2025, maybe longer if they extended him.
“Happens every day. They made the move now because value was to be had now and they knew it wouldn’t be later.”
He’ll have more trade value in a year when he has an All Star nomination under his belt and his proven all 3 of his doubters wrong.
This all hinges on Urias’ development. I’m not confident he’ll ever hit all that well in the majors.
As I said, this seems like a bigger trade than what it really is. It’s probably because everyone is waiting around for moves to occur, but this will be a nothing burger by the end of next season.
None of these players will make an impact on their next team. How’s that for a projection?
@mrnatewalter if you were actually paying attention you’d know that Urias already HAS made the necessary adjustments to hit well in the majors. Expect him to hit the ground running in April.
Urias will make a major impact. This is a HUGE trade for Milwaukee. How great is it to get a near-future All Star 2B for absolutely jack SQUAT?
Dude, is this a bit? How you can be so sure about Urias is hilarious. I liked him, watched every single at bat…to say he is a future All Star is at least premature, and possibly wishful thinking. If you get to play the projection game based on improved walk rated in August, then the rest of us can dream on Abrams and Edward’s, both far superior athletes, dominating the minors. Since you got out the crystal ball, I’ll use it and say that Urias and Lauer had no place on this team in 2 years
They need to win now…a vet like Gennet or Schoop may fill in until better players arrive. Meanwhile, a lefty hitting, young outfielder who can play all 3 positions is now on the roster. I’ll avoid sounding ridiculous by calling him a future All Star. Go Pads!
I like Abrams and Edwards but they are both at least 2 years out and have basically no floors. Urias could have held down the fort until they were ready and stayed if they flamed out. And his trade value would have been higher in a year or two when he had proved all the doubters wrong.
“They need to win now…”
And trading Urias helps that how?
And no, you didn’t like Urias. You have nothing but hatred for him.
Davies in that big park should do well. Veteran leadership on a young staff. Padres have an abundance of guys just like Lauer.
Grisham reminds me of Jankowski. Defense first CF. Urias needs to make that next step. He could be the difference maker in this trade. If he fulfills his potential, brewers win big.
Good trade summation, Melchez
Defense first CF? He’ll be a corner OF
Franchy/Margot is SD’s CF combo
Look at Davies’s stats at Petco. They’re horrendous.
I gave the Padres a mercy D grade. Many Padre fans thought Urias would be the main piece in a trade for Thor or Lindor. Well they get Grisham instead. Padre fans really seem to drink the Preller Kool-Aid.
Show me Tatis – what is your take on this trade?
I’m not a Padres fan, but I think Davies is the key guy here. He’s going to be cheap for a while, which allows SD to go big in FA. I never saw anyone thinking Urias would bring back Lindor or an elite player (SD isnt getting a SS, Lindor makes no sense, and the Mets have relentlessly said Thor is not on the table)
Strasburg-Paddack-Davies-Richards-Luccessi (Lamet the 6th/longman)
Yates-Pomeranz-Lamet-Quantrill-Gore-Munoz-Stammen-Perdomo-Strahm
That’s the staff of a contender.
nice dream don’t see Pads getting Strasburg… unless we exterminate Hosmer/Myers. sorry to see Urias dispatched so quickly sends severe message to all other rookies…
Strasburgs family and his wifes family are from SD, he’s a hero there already and dozens of players have picked SD over other teams just because how weak the media is there and how nice the weather is. But Stras is literally from there. He knows. I could see him taking less money to play there, easily. He’s got his title, he can join an almost-ready team as the final piece.
San Diego maybe 500 but not a contender in NL west, Arizona will be the second-place team with la dodgers winning the west. The Rockies will also be better than San Diego if they find some healthy starting pitchers.
Davies is literally a FA in two years…
And the Mets saying Thor isn’t on the table plus a quarter equals 25 cents.
Davies is going from league min to 5 million in arb this year.
That’s not cheap for a mediocre #5.
I think he got banned
Surprised everyone seems to think Urias is a bum or a utilty man. The guy didn’t look particularly good in 302 plate appearances as a 21 and 22 hear old, I get it, but plenty of players struggle at their first taste of big league action.
Aaron Judge hit .179 his first year as a 24 year old. Matt Chapman hit .234 his first year. Anthony Rizzo hit .141 as a Padre during his first taste of the bigs. Not everyone is able to jump out of the gate like Acuna or Juan Soto and be instant all-stars.
I just hope, for Pads fans, that this trade works out better than the Rizzo for Alonso trade.
Rizzo wasn’t traded for Alonso…
No, it’s even better…Rizzo for Andrew Cashner. They decided Alonzo was their first basemen of the future after they stole he, Brac Boxberger, Yasmani Grandal and Edinson Volquez from the Reds for Mat Latos. A better trade than any Preller has been able to swing.
That trade was actually pretty bad. Few people remember how good Latos was at the time.
The tipping point is 150 PAs. Grish hasn’t even reached that.
I do wonder if Urias was better over his next 150.
Probably so.
It’s more realistic that Davies will end up the best player in this trade, especially going from a hitter friendly park with terrible defenders behind him to pitcher friendly park with gold gloves all over his INF. He’s the most proven guy and been a 2.5-ish WAR pitcher 3 out of the last 4 years. I can see him breaking out ala a “SD special” type year.
Lauer is by the far the worst player in this deal, and Milwaukee better sign other SPs to battle him. Unless the Brewers start prioritizing defense, he’s going to look AAAA really quick.
Urias has the highest ceiling out of anyone, but hasn’t been able to hit MLB despite murdering AAA pitching. He probably just needs everyday experience due to his age, but it might take a year or three to pan out (see Marcus Semien). A contending team like the Brewers probably can’t afford that. I can actually see him being traded again for a minor star on his way out (Merrifield?)
Grisham has the second highest ceiling of the bunch, and has hit MLB better than Urias. What’s interesting is that both Grisham and Urias have suffered from low BABIPs, so their numbers look worse than they could be. I thought SD had too many OF to begin with, like what happens to Myers now? Grisham-Cordero-Renfroe with Myers and Margot on the bench, and then on top of that, they have Taylor Trammell, a guy who’s almost ready, and Josh Naylor, a guy who should have been in this trade, as he’s a totally fine 1B and better than Shaw.
Both teams won? I guess. I wish Naylor was in this deal, as he needs to be free to play 1B somewhere.
San Diego maybe 500 but not a contender in NL west, Arizona will be the second-place team with la dodgers winning the west. The Rockies will also be better than San Diego if they find some healthy starting pitchers.
A full season of Tatis, add Villar and a big SP (Stras, Ryu) and they’re absolutely a contender. They aren’t far off from getting into the postseason. They aren’t in the same league as the Dodgers, but they can still make the postseason.
A full season of Tatis will be great, but how far will he regress? There’s absolutely zero chance he hits a .410 BABIP in 2020.
And those other two things haven’t happened yet.
All we know is the Padres added another OF, which they didn’t need, a soft-tossing pitcher who can’t strike anyone out, and made it so either Greg Garcia or Ian Kinsler are their current 2B.
They’ll make moves, but nothing they’ve done should inspire anyone.
“Both teams won? I guess. I wish Naylor was in this deal, as he needs to be free to play 1B somewhere.”
WTF are you talking about??????? The Padres got HOSED! And absolutely Urias has been able to hit MLB pitching. Look at his September stats. Everything before that was when he was being disgustingly mismanaged by one of the worst managers to ever take the field and it is one of the main reasons he was fired.
Wrong.
Brewer D was between 10-15 the last two years. It’s average and not below average.
The RF line is the only place they really fly.
Lauer will become a star and Urias will hit 15 HRs down the RF line alone. Take out 3 starts in CO and Lauer has an ERA 1.50 runs lower (and Chacin, who was great for the Crew and is top 20 among all starters for the last 10 years, had the same profile with 2-3 super bad starts skewing his overall ERA each year).
Big win for the Crew.
Davis is absolute crap and goes from league min to being vastly overpaid at 5 million. He will get worse every year from now on.
Grish will likely be a bust like Brinson.
I don’t have a guess in this race and I like the Brewers’ side significantly more. I see the pitchers as similar quality and the Brewers get the younger, cheaper, longer controlled, left handed one of the two. As too the position players, Urias has had the longer minor league track record, looks to play a more valuable defensive position and was looking better the last third of his PAs last season. I personally would rather have Urias over Grisham and Lauer over Davies.
Neither team gave up very much, and both are betting on the upside of the other team’s prospect.
Having seen a lot of Urias, I was never sure what the big deal about him was. In comparison to legitimate prospects such as Tatis or Gore, I always thought he was overrated.
But what’s most interesting to me is what this trade means for SD’s roster construction. There is no way Preller adds Grisham to an already crowded OF mix if he doesn’t expect to move either Myers or Renfroe. Either way, we either move on from Myers’ albatross contract, or we hopefully get a valuable piece in return for Renfroe. That has to be good news.
On a side note, I just think the hypocrisy of opposing fans is baffling. Most of the time, they’re quick to point out that SD stockpiling prospects means nothing. Yet as soon as we trade one away, everybody claims we got “fleeced” out of something valuable. Well, which one is it? Are our prospects worthless or not? It can’t be different based on the context.
Not expecting a well thought out, constructed reply, but who knows.
Homerism+Haterism is what 90% of these comment threads are. Wish everyone wasn’t biased but what can you do? I mean look at it this way: I will never respect the Yankees or their fanbase, and will never rate any of their prospects, because they think their prospects are all HOF-bound. See, its a push-pull scenario, they push one way by overrating, I pull the other by underrating. Same goes for all teams and homers/haters.
I like the trade for both teams, and I agree Urias fits better as a SS, which SD doesn’t need anytime soon, and they got a regular rotation piece and an interesting OF in return. I just really want SD to trade Naylor this offseason, and he’d be a fine fit as the Brewers 1B too, he should have been in this trade somehow.
I don’t know what the heck you are talking about. I don’t overrate the Yankee prospects, the top ones of which are fair to middling (one SP, one OF), and I’ve never heard another Yankee fan do so. You’re totally fabricating to suit your bias. Talk about haterism. Look in the mirror. Your Yankee-hater comments are among the worst I’ve ever heard/read.
No, Urias fits better as a 2nd baseman. If you saw him play shortstop even once you would not be saying he fits at all as a shortstop. But it’s not his fault, it’s Andy Green’s for playing him there.
The Padres do not have a second baseman now and they got basically nothing in return.
Think about it this way: The Padres have a bunch of OF. They don’t have a 2B option. They traded their best 2B option for a guy who’ll have to compete for innings.
If that doesn’t reveal what the Padres thought about Urias, I’m not sure what to tell you.
They didn’t think Trea Turner, Yasmani Grandal or Max Fried were any good either. Doesn’t mean they were right. And when all is said and done they will have been wrong about this one too.
If Daves injury history continues and his luck goes away with poorer annalistic in San Diego they will have gotten fleeced.
yes, if the players the brewers got play well and the ones the padres got play bad the padres will lose the trade great take boomer
Boomer hate again. How mature.
I like your thought process.
“Having seen a lot of Urias, I was never sure what the big deal about him was.”
OBP approaching .400 at his peak while shoring up a position that the Padres have had trouble filling and that Preller will now probably overpay to fill elsewhere.
That just kind of backs up my original statement, in my view.
Because he played a position which SD had historically struggled to fill, there was a tendency to over evaluate how good Urias was, because he filled a position of need. That’s the wrong way to look at it.
Whether SD has to overpay to fill the position now shouldn’t factor into the evaluation of the trade. One should judge prospects on their inherent worth, rather than what supply/demand dictates. Does an average player suddenly become a star if he’s the best out of a bad bunch at any specific moment in time? Not for me.
Another fallacy in that statement is judging a prospect based on his peak. Players can get hot and set high ceilings for a short period of time, but if that ceiling is an outlier in the career to date, it’s a very risky way to look at that player.
An OBP approaching .400 is All Star worthy. Regardless of whether or not the player fills a need (which Urias did). And that is what you can expect to see from Urias in the not-too-distant future. This trade was garbage. And if Preller overpays to fill 2B now, it will make it WORSE.
Why did you post this comment twice?
Quit it with your negative perspective on everything.
Acting like Urias was the savior is unrealistic, Padres have the money to spend to get a much better 2B then Urias ever will be, there’s a surplus of options at the position. AND no prospects needs to be lost. Villar, Schoop, Merrifield, Kendrick, Gennett, would all be upgrades and can be afforded.
Quit acting like you know everything, news flash, YOU DONT
“Quit it with your negative perspective on everything.”
Nope. Just this trade.
“Acting like Urias was the savior is unrealistic”
Nope.
“Padres have the money to spend to get a much better 2B then Urias ever will be”
Cool. Who?
“there’s a surplus of options at the position.”
Cool. Name them.
“Villar, Schoop, Merrifield, Kendrick, Gennett, would all be upgrades and can be afforded.”
None are as good as Urias and Merrifield will cost 3 top 100 prospects because KC cares more about sentimentality than winning.
The double post was a mistake.
You’re assuming that Urias can sustain an OBP of .400, which is at best an assumption on your part, at worst a huge reach. Time will tell I guess, but at this point in time, there is nothing backing that up.
It’s all opinion, and with all due respect, I will take the opinions of front office baseball executives more seriously than MLBTR posters’ every day of the week.
You seem to rate Urias and that’s fine. But you should accept the possibility that you may be over rating him too.
Nothing backing it up except Urias’ long track record of getting on base and the fact that he was trending upward at the end of 2019.
Which front office baseball executives? Because some of them (namely, the Brewers’ executives) agree with me. And they have accomplished way more in about the same amount of time that Preller has.
Anyway, after this season when Urias has an All Star nod under his belt, you will realize that you were wrong. At that point, you will be hearing from me.
Glad to hear it about his OBP. With Cain starting to fade, the Crew didn’t have a guy like that last year (everyone but Yelich and Moose and Grandal in men on base situations walked at poor rates)..
Brewers want more homers with men on base and will now be likely to bring back Thames on the cheap and spend on pitching.
Maybe they can’t afford Moose and Urias plays 3rd and Braun platoons at 1st, allowing them to also get a nice FA OF to replace Grish (maybe Puig).
What the Padres really need is to get rid of Myers and, I believe, Hosmer too (especially due to recent defensive issues).
Urias should have been part of a mega-prospect package to unload 60-70% of Myers’ contract.
Bad “move to make a move” busy work. Don’t need to get another OF in a still crowded pack of AAAA corners.
AJ Preller = F
Stop thinking you can trade your trash if you include treasure, those deals don’t happen as often as you think and usually only the Dodgers and Reds do them. No one wants Wil Myers unless Gore is coming too, and SD are not doing that, so you either release Myers or keep him on the bench as use him as depth.
Thus my very intentional use of the term “mega.” A package of multiple prospects, not just one or two, to unload the man who doesn’t understand what good Mexican food is. (Wil Myers famously said on sports talk radio that he liked North Carolina tacos more than Southern California tacos.)
So you wanted to use Urias and Gore + others to move Myers because he doesn’t like SD tacos?
lol, Myers belongs in jail for that take
Actually I think this trade is a wash, so to speak at this point.
Padres may pursue a veteran to hold down second, possible (if he was available) Merrifield or a similar player, while they ease Edwards into that role. Urias may have been a surplus at that position.
Lauer also represented somewhat of a surplus as the Pads have a plethora of lefties in Luchesi, Gore and Weathers etc.
An innings eating righty veteran was a necessity for the Padres. Davies who reminds me of a Mike Leak with the upside of a Walker Buhler(on a career day) fit the bill.
The Brewers needed a Urias to provide depth at ss/second as well as potential at that position. Lauer also represented a lefty who could slot into the rotation or pen on a staff void of lefties. Lauer’s repertoire is deceiving. He added velocity going from 91-92 to 94-95 on his fastball and commands the zone well.
Grisham supplies a lefty bat off the bench (don’t see him starting but may excel as a pinch hitter/spot starter). I’d love to see the Pads acquire another outfielder but beggars can’t be choosers.
I think this trade may actually, down the line, work out pretty favorably for both sides.
A wash? What are you on?
We don’t know that Edwards will be better than Urias and even if he is it won’t be for at least 2 more years. The Padres are allegedly under orders from ownership to contend NOW so how does that help them?
“I think this trade may actually, down the line, work out pretty favorably for both sides.”
If by “both sides” you mean the Brewers and the Padre haters I’d have to agree.
So a guy who goes out and throw soft-toss for 5 innings a game is now considered an “innings eater”? Have the standards really fallen that far that fast?
I don’t get any A or F grades for either team. There is way too much of an unknown quantity to this trade.
I went B Milwaukee and C for San Diego, but if I could it would have been more like a C+. I like it a little better for Milwaukee because Urias has a higher ceiling. But hard to say at this point either team got fleeced or won big.
Urias was already started to deliver on that ceiling. Preller blew it.
I’m glad to see Davies out of the Central. He had some good outings against the Cards.
I think Preller seriously messed up. He just more/less gave away Urias. He will regret that. Davies isn’t any better than Lauer, not really. Grisham just adds to a logjam in that SD OF. I’m stunned Preller did this and stunned ownership allowed it. The Brewers win BIG on this one. Six years of Urias to pair with Hiura is gonna be major.
Not sure what the Brewers were thinking they need starters and traded away a good one for a 5th starter bad move
Davies is not a good starter but a serviceable one who is so inconsistent . Dig deeper into his splits instead of just looking at his final overall numbers.
So you don’t think he’s a “serviceable” fifth starter as mecousingvinny said?
Just a weird, random thought…
Insert Ty France/Greg Garcia at third, shift Manny to SS and keep Tatis from hurting himself by putting him at 2B.
This solves all the Padres problems, wins them the WS and packs the stadium every night. Brown is back, baby!
[Sarcasm with a dose of seriousness.)
So happy that Lauer is out of the West. Dodger killer
The Rockies are in mourning…
GET VILLAR NOW!
No prospects have to be traded. And 4.0 WAR for $10M is a bargain.
Do it Preller! And you look smart for dealing Urias.
“Do it Preller! And you look smart for dealing Urias.”
Errrr… what?
What don’t you understand?
If you get a better 2B 4.0 WAR player to fill the 2B position that Urias left void, you make it seem as though you had this all planned out… and you sign a player rather than lose more prospects. Seems like a no-brainer. $10M is what we would have to pay Villar, that’s a bargain for a 4.0 WAR player, he had 40 SB’s and 26 HR’s…. Machado was a 3.1 WAR and is getting $30M.
ERRRRR…,,
Cool. Who is a “better 4.0 player” who can play a good 2B, is controlled through at least 2025 and won’t cost the Padres any of their top 3o prospects?
VILLAR YOU MORON
AJ Preller continues to amaze… How he still has a job. Suspended/fined in both Texas and San Diego. Did a horrible job trying to build the Padres into an instant contender. Gave Myers too much money. For some stupid reason, thought he had to give Hosmer $140 M, hint, KC wasn’t going to go anywhere near there. And now, he trades a top 5 MLB prospect for a replaceable middle rotation piece and a career minor league year. Sorry Padres fans, but you have the greatest assembly of minor league talent and it’ll be wasted on the worst GM in baseball.
Yup…Preller is the worst. How long will it take ownership to see it???
If Preller grabs Villar right now he’ll look like a genius.
Yes, the scourge. I’ve heard all of this.
No he won’t. He’s not going to sign for peanuts. They might as well just play Kinsler there now. Already paying him 4 mil. They don’t need someone at SS or 3B. If those two don’t play 150+ games, they aren’t competing anyway.
Peanuts? The contract is $10M not peanuts, and $10M is reasonable for a 4.0 WAR player, who had 40 SB’s and 26 HR’s (Machado 3.1 WAR $30M)
I said he’s not going to sign for peanuts. And that 10 mil mark was an estimate if he went to arbitration. He might get 5-6 mil on the open market. So you are paying two guys between 9-12 million to share 2B. Doesn’t make sense to me when there are so many other areas that need help.
I completely agree! Now that Villar has been placed on Waivers…it would cost SD nothing but $$$. The other option would be to get Merrifield from KC.
Merrifield is out of the picture. Royals want 3 top 100 prospects for him.
Exactly…Miller, Potts and Nix: I believe would be what KC would pull the trigger on.
Royals would never go for that. And Nix has no value to them considering he was on waivers like a month ago and they took a hard pass on claiming him.
Mine were Brewers B
Padres C
The padres aren’t good enough for Davies to be a #4 and he’s not good enough to be higher.
I think Urias will do well if given the job to lose. Thought the padres bringing in Kinsler last year was detrimental to his development.
I gave the Brewers the higher grade because I think Urias is the better position player and we don’t know Lauer’s ceiling.
Oh you will find out the ceiling on Lauer soon.. its called the basement.
And you will find out soon how maddeningly inconsistent Davies is.
Brewers fan here. As someone who has closely followed the development of Trent Grisham and has watched most of Zach Davies’s MLB starts, I’ll give my take:
Re: Grisham – a very underrated prospect. The changes to his approach and grip last year led to a complete turnaround. Given his youth, fantastic speed down the first base line and strike zone control, he is the type of player who could be a solidly above average leadoff hitter for the Padres over the next 6 years. Definitely more than a 4th OFer.
Re: Davies – perhaps the most overrated pitcher in baseball. He will be making $5M+ next year. He is not worth that much. I cannot understand the love for this acquisition by Padres fans. First, “innings eaters” is an antiquated concept in baseball. You want your pitchers throwing quality innings, not throwing more innings. And Davies isn’t even an innings eater. He threw 159 innings last year, but that was in 31 starts. That’s about 5 innings per start. He was not pulled in the 5th and 6th innings of games because the Brewers wanted to get the ball into Matt Albers’s or Alex Claudio’s hands. He was pulled because he is particularly vulnerable multiple times through a lineup and because his pitch count was typically high (he generally gets locked in long at bats with quality hitters because he lacks a strikeout pitch). If you believe in advanced stats, he was not good last year. He had a 5.20 xFIP. The ERA looks shiny and nice, but the career worst K rate (which is abysmal), career high BB rate, career high runners stranded percentage, career high HR rate despite a career low HR to fly ball ratio and significantly below career norm BABIP bely a pitcher whose true talent is much closer to a 5 ERA than a 3.55 ERA. For the three years preceding last, his BABIP was .302, .302, and .298. Last year it was .272. The ball did not suddenly stop getting hit hard last year. To the contrary. It was generally hit quite hard off of him. The .272 is pure luck. Considering that Davies is your traditional “gets guys to put it in play” kind of pitcher, a drop like that in BABIP makes a huge impact. Almost 75% of opposing hitters put the ball in play against him. My amateur math tells me that had his BABIP been his career norm of around .300, he would have given up an extra 14 hits last year. Put an extra 14 hits into those 159 innings, and how does that ERA look? Maybe 4.50? Do you want a guy who can’t throw more than 5 innings a game with a 4.50 ERA if you are expecting to win 90+ games? The Brewers didn’t.
Let’s say you don’t believe in advanced stats. Then you probably are concerned with his 5’9”, 155 lbs frame with a history of arm troubles and a fastball that sits around 87mph. You should be. He doesn’t strike batters out for a reason. He can’t. He has a nice changeup. But his fastball is so bad that he lives on changeups turning into outs on balls in play. This isn’t 1980. It is very dangerous no matter what park he is pitching in to be giving up that much contact to today’s hitters, particularly fly balls.
Will the ballpark switch help? Probably a bit. But leaving the Brewers, who get the most out of ever pitcher, have a good defense, have exceptional catchers and pitch framing, and who do a sensational job of not leaving their pitchers exposed to their own weaknesses, means the trade is likely a net negative to Davies’s future performance despite the ballpark change. And when he struggles, his stuff is definitely not the kind of stuff that plays up in a bullpen role. Davies is a complementary piece on a rebuilding team. To a contender, he shouldn’t be on a 25 (or 26) man roster.
I like Zach Davies. He was a nice player for the Brewers to have in 2016 and 2017. I would be happy if I’m wrong about his performance, but brace yourself Padres fans. This isn’t what you are expecting with your 3.55 ERA In MKE = 3.00 in San Diego math. Davies will be non-tendered by the Padres 12 months from now.
As for the Brewers and David Stearns, they just traded one asset in Grisham for two assets whose positional scarcity makes them hugely attractive. If Lauer or Urias succeeds in Milwaukee, this was a huge success. If both succeed, this is a trade that blows open their window of contention.
Grade A for the Brewers. Grade D for the Padres (only because I really like Grisham).
Way too long to read. That may be a record.
Grish could easily be a bust.
I am 6 1 and 170 and met Zach and he was able to look me right in the eye and only seemed slightly skinnier.
His FB also reaches 89 (but never 90), so it’s not the 87 you said (and low speed pitchers tend to hit their highest velo every time, which power pitchers don’t, as they vary greatly from pitch to pitch).
Otherwise, pretty accurate.
I think both Pads guys will blossom in MKE.
Strong B for both, just in theory alone. I’m supportive of the new environment/fresh start for Grisham (final play of WC game) and spacious ballpark for Davies.
Urius is a huge gamble, but huge, huge payoff as well. I’m inclined to love the idea of him hitting in that ballpark half the time with his recent power surge. They’re obviously not the same player, but it was similar to the hopes Mariners fans had for Smoak in the Lee deal. We all knew he could rake in the minors, but it’s time to show it off in the bigs.
Fun trade. I want the M’s to do this on the pitching side.
Lauer will take the ball every 5 days. He is a pitcher in the making…not a flame thrower….smart…good kid. Lefty with a good curve. He will do well in Milwaukee.
And has some congenital deficiency which makes him unable to get out of the fifth inning.
Which doesn’t matter in the modern game. In 5 years, spurred by the way Stearns has brilliantly manipulated existing rules and forced MLB to actually CHANGE rules because he found the formula for small markets to compete with the bigs and the big boys don’t like that, you likely won’t EVER see a pitcher go more than 6.
Ever again.
It’s the new game and Stearns is its author.
He throws 3 MPH faster than Davies and it’s only the RF line that we have to worry about, so he will probably become a dominant stud here.
How is this anything other than an A for the Brewers and an F for the Padres!? Ridiculous trade. Preller got fleeced again!
Brewer fan who agrees.
Preller is bad, but don’t feel bad. He got fleeced by the best GM in the game.
Prellers trades stink for us
Only thing worse than being the dumbest guy in the room is being the dumbest guy in the room while thinking you are the smartest guy in the room. That is AJ Preller.
Brewers B. Padres D
Urias will the key. I predict the Brewers will win huge with Urias.
“OBP approaching .400 at his peak while shoring up a position that the Padres have had trouble filling and that Preller will now probably overpay to fill elsewhere.”
That just kind of backs up my original statement, in my view.
Because he played a position which SD had historically struggled to fill, there was a tendency to over evaluate how good Urias was, because he filled a position of need. That’s the wrong way to look at it.
Whether SD has to overpay to fill the position now shouldn’t factor into the evaluation of the trade. One should judge prospects on their inherent worth, rather than what supply/demand dictates. Does an average player suddenly become a star if he’s the best out of a bad bunch at any specific moment in time? Not for me.
Another fallacy in that statement is judging a prospect based on his peak. Players can get hot and set high ceilings for a short period of time, but if that ceiling is an outlier in the career to date, it’s a very risky way to look at that player.
The Padres line-up’s biggest problem last year was not having a good #2 hitter. They literally tried everyone in the role and traded the one who was least worst to Cleveland
Getting Grisham was the entire deal for SanDiego and Preller overpaid by a lot but if it fills the broken part of the Pads engine we will be happy. Urias is going to be an all-star and a sparkplug to rallies, but really is a second baseman who can also play at short. Lauer is a good pitcher at anything like sea level. The advice Brewer fans have been getting to keep him away from Denver is as serious as not feeding a gremlin after midnight. The place is in his head already, so I recommend leaving him at home on the Brewers one trip a year to Denver. Two points in his favor that have not been discussed. He has never lost to the Dodgers and he has the best pickoff move in baseball. Just ask first base coaches. Nobody even took a regular lead off him this year.
What’s Grisham’s outlook in SD? Still a starter/impact bat?
Grisham will be the latest attempt at a 2 hitter. We wanted a fast left handed hitting outfielder who can play center too and who hits both lefties and righties. He should also be able to hit in any count. (Urias was right handed, alas, and struggled with two strikes.) So Grisham starts in center for now with some abs going to Margot against tough lefties.
I was a big Urias fan and will miss him. In his curtailed cup of coffee in 2018 and early in 2019 I saw a young hitter who was studying MLB pitchers to such a degree he would take two strikes. That worked for him in the minors, but not in the show. It led to too many strikeouts. All it took for him to turn things around near the end of 2019 was to get more aggressive early in the count. Forget his few abs so far and just enjoy the hitting show he puts on from now on.
I think Milwaukee won the trade not necessarily because the players they got will perform better than those the Padres got but because I think the players the Padres traded could have fetched more – or in other words they have more value as prospects than Grisham in particular. I think that Urias and Lauer could’ve (and still could) be traded for significantly better players than Grisham and Davies — however if both teams just end up keeping the guys they got in the deal Davies could tilt the trade back in favor of the Padres because I think he’s capable of continuing to pitch at a sub 4.00 ERA level and if the Padres are trying to contend next season that could really come in handy — though long term Lauer may wind up being just as good — if not better in the long run.
Problem with Davies is that he only has 2 years of control. He also had the same problem Lauer has where he gets destroyed the third time through the lineup.
AJ Preller is a terrible trader.
He will dismantle the Padres farm system for a bunch of utility players..
Brew Crew B, Friars D
Not sure what the Pads are doing here giving up 65/70-hit grade middle infield prospect Urias and 4-years of funky LHP Lauer for a lesser prospect(Grisham isn’t bad tho, just not the ceiling Urias has imo) and then just 2-years of a #5 rotation Right-hander Davies! Think the Pads got the shortend of the stick on BOTH the Prospect and the Pitcher!