In addition to the dozens of veteran free agents still looking for new homes this offseason, there are currently three decorated players from the Nippon Professional Baseball ranks who are currently available to stateside clubs via the MLB posting system. First baseman Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, pitcher Shun Yamaguchi, and second baseman Ryosuke Kikuchi have already been posted this winter; a fourth player, outfielder Shogo Akiyama, is an international free agent. While none of these players promise, like countrymen Shohei Ohtani or Yu Darvish before them, to be franchise building blocks, each offers unique value to potential American suitors.
Looking for a lefty bat with pop? Tsutsugo is your man. Since 2014, the 6’0 slugger has blasted an average of 30.83 home runs per season while playing for the Yokohama BayStars, peaking with totals of 44 and 38 round-trippers in 2016 and 2018, respectively. The now-28-year-old couples that raw power with the patient approach modern clubs covet, recording a 15.1 percent walk rate over the last four seasons, while also doing a generally acceptable job of limiting strikeouts.
As for his defense? Well, Jason Coskrey of Baseball America recently said he’s “not a terrible fielder by any means, but he’s not a great one either”. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for a player who has shuttled between first, third, and left field in a ten-year Nipponese career. Clubs may be wary of committing multiple years, a hefty guarantee, and a posting fee (more on that in a moment) for a player who may end up suited for DH duties.
How about teams in search of a veteran starting pitcher to slot into their rotation’s back end? 32-year-old righty Shun Yamaguchi throws a fastball that sits around 90 mph, with a forkball representing his primary breaking pitch. That surely doesn’t sound like the most glamorous mix of attributes, but what Yamaguchi can offer is a wealth of experience and a good deal of forward momentum. Despite having pitched over 1000 innings stretching between the bullpen and the rotation in an NPB career dating back to 2006, Yamaguchi may have found another gear in 2019.
In addition to posting a 2.91 ERA over 26 starts, his 10.0 K/9 and 3.13 K/BB ratios last season marked personal bests as a starter. This offseason has already been slightly unpredictable when it comes to starting pitching, with Jake Odorizzi foregoing the open market and an inconsistent Kyle Gibson garnering a three-year, $30MM deal from the Rangers. For teams leery of even approaching the market’s top trifecta of starting arms, Yamaguchi, though likely not a world-beater, could represent an appealing value play.
Then there’s the slick-fielding Ryosuke Kikuchi. For teams in need of second base help and defensive improvement in the infield–and there are a few teams who fit within that category–Kikuchi may be a perfect match. The 29-year-old has won every Golden Glove at the keystone in the NPB’s Central League since 2013. While his defensive excellence seems to be universally upheld, there are some persistent questions as to how the bat will travel. Since debuting with the Hiroshima Carp in 2012, the righty swinger has logged a cumulative .271/.315/.391 line across a rather healthy sample of 4695 plate appearances.
Kikuchi’s .261/.313/.406 slash from last year would look acceptable in the majors from a defensively adept second baseman, but such production in the offensively friendly Japanese ranks may give some MLB front offices reason to pause; those that remember the trials of Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Munenori Kawasaki, two other former Golden Glove NPB infielders who proved unable to adapt to MLB pitching, may simply stay away altogether.
Big league teams interested in any of these players will have to pay their parent clubs posting fees proportional to the size of the player’s contract: 20 percent of the first $25MM guaranteed; 17.5 percent of the next $25MM, plus 15 percent of every dollar over $50MM. That release fee is separate from the guarantee itself (for instance, a $25MM guarantee for one of these players would result in an additional $5MM posting fee, bringing the MLB club’s total expense to $30MM).
Performance incentives and contract options will trigger a supplemental 15 percent release fee once unlocked. For a minor league deal, an MLB club will be required to give a parent club 25 percent of the player’s signing bonus, and the player’s MLB salary will be subject to a supplemental posting fee if he is added to the club’s 25-man roster.
Shogo Akiyama probably represents the most well-rounded player expected to make the leap this offseason, and he was the only expected NPB import from this offseason to land within our Top 50 MLB Free Agent list. Considered a true center fielder and leadoff man by most, Akiyama set the NPB single-season record for hits (216) in the 2015 season. He’s won six Golden Gloves in his home country, hit 69 home runs over his last three seasons with the Seibu Lions, and holds a 10.8 percent walk rate since 2016. Two problems: Akiyama will be 32 next April, a rather advanced age for an up-the-middle player, and he suffered a broken bone in his foot during an exhibition on Oct 31 and will need to show he is healthy in order to sign with an MLB team.
There’s certainly a chance some of these players may not come stateside this offseason, but each seems to represent a coveted potential asset in their own right. This year’s free agent market is generally slim pickings when it comes to center fielders, so Akiyama’s availability, in particular, is probably a welcome development for a number of clubs; better yet, he is free to sign a new deal with any club without being subject to the posting system and its concomitant fees.
Still, it’s fair to wonder if he can truly be considered the most viable play here. Tsutsugo offers immense immense power and relative youth, while there seems to be a fair number of clubs circling starting pitching options like Yamaguchi this offseason.
Which one do you believe is likely to receive the healthiest contract guarantee this winter? (Poll link for app users)
not those giants
The poll doesn’t show up for me unless I’m signed in.
I think that’s the point
We will all wait for you to sign in and vote.
Uh, who cares.
Not you, apparently.
It’s the freaking offseason they need something to write about. But to be fair, these guys could become superstars so people will care in 5 years.
I highly doubt any of them will become superstars, and 3 of the 4 will likely be out of major league baseball within 5 years based on their age – Tsutsugo is the only one that will be under 30 at the start of next season.
Maybe it’s just me, but I’m not particularly impressed with any of their numbers. If Tsutsugo came over at age 25 after posting an 1.110+ OPS with a K% under 20, I’d be much more interested. Yamaguchi is already 32, and he put up mediocre-to-bad numbers for 6 years before 2019. Kikuchi can’t even hit Japanese pitching. Akiyama’s numbers have been fine, but he doesn’t stand out and will be 32 at the start of next season.
The White Sox should care. Some of these players could fill holes in the roster.
Would not be surprised if one or more of them are pursued.
Shogo is a free agent, he doesn’t have to be posted, right?
Exactly: mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/japanese-center-fielder…
I doubt if any of these players cracks 15 million in total contract value…..
Shogo. plays a more valuable position, has the best chance of seeing his skills translate, and isnt shackled by the posting system.
Yep, that is correct.
Kikuchi will be lucky to get any club to bite on him. 150 lb. hitters with sub .400 SLG rates in NPB are not highly sought after here.
Shun’s homrun rates are nice but he turns 33 this year and is likely a RP’er, someone will want him but it’s not going to be big money.
Yoshito is big bodied (at least as far as Japanese men go) which is a plus for him to succeed in the states, but he’s coming off a down year – those strikeouts are going to scare some teams away and he’s limited to 1B/LF.
Which leaves Shogo as the obvious choice to win this poll, if only a few clubs think he can man CF and hit for some power in the show. But even his contract will be limited due to being 32 years of age.
None of these guys should be getting huge deals this winter, and probably nothing longer than 3 years.
Well said.
I think the real question here is which of the group is most valuable in year 1. I think it’s probably a 2 horse race between Tsutsugo & Akiyama with an ever so slight chance for Yamaguchi. I’m a sucker for a good forkball
I predict a five-way tie.
Wouldnt touch any of them, especially with the posting fee. I don’t think any of them contribute more than 1.5-2.0 WAR
You really think that much?
Last years highly touted import model pitcher – Yusei Kikuchi – had an fWAR of 0.2 in 2019.
A bargain at a guaranteed $53m over 3 years including posting fee.
Kikuchi will improve. No chance his flyball to HR rate is as high as it was last year.
There have been plenty of successful, less-hyped Japanese players. Hisashi Iwakuma, Koji Uehara, Hiroki Kuroda, Nori Aoki, Hideki Irabu, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, etc.
Tomo Ohka not Irabu, sorry
Number of players signed out of Japan by the Phillies: ZERO
Why does John Middleton pay for scouts over there when they sign nothing?
Shogo Akiyama for the win.
Slow Holiday weekend.
Japanese care are reliable and worth every penny.
My advice based on past performance……
When it comes to MLB players – Buy American.
Valiant try, but ultimately fail due to lack of proofreading. Sorry, have to [Downvote].
I’d really think it’s a good idea if when there are slow news cycles, baseball wide Tim, Dylan who it seems put this topic out would just look over local BB teams sports and find something interesting and run it here.
Consider myself an ardent BB fan and know pretty much nothing about these NPB guys, doubt many that come here do either since extremely difficult for those in US to see NPB games.
Just a thought.
Not a coherent or well written thought, but a thought I guess.
I want all-world the “Trout” of JAPAN 2B Yamada to be posted if not this yr next..
Leg kick is insanely ugly, works against 85-90 mph pitchers in Japan – don’t think it’ll carry against mid to high 90’s pitchers in the states.
I think the best option from the Pacific Rim this off season does not come from the NPB, but from the KBO. The most intriguing free agent available is Gwang-Hyun Kim. A 31 year old lefthander with 12 years experience in the super- offence inflated KBO, Kim has pitched to a record of 136-77 with an ERA of 3.72 in 1673.2 IP. That intrigues me more than any of the Japanese options.
Agreed, and the fact that he’s only under contract for one more year means his team has added incentive to accept the winning posting fee…it’s probably going to be 2-4M$.