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Ryosuke Kikuchi

Ryosuke Kikuchi To Stay In Japan

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SUNDAY: Given the deep free agent market for second basemen this offseason, it was plausible Kikuchi would again explore his MLB options next winter. That no longer seems to be the case. Kikuchi instead agreed to a four-year contract extension with the Carp on Friday, reports the Japan Times. The deal will reportedly pay him $2.7MM per year, with unspecified additional incentives available.

THURSDAY: Japanese infielder Ryosuke Kikuchi won’t be coming to the majors in 2020. Kikuchi’s Nippon Professional Baseball team – the Hiroshima Carp – posted him Dec. 3, which gave him a chance to sign with a big league club through Jan. 2. But Kikuchi announced this week that he’ll remain in his homeland, according to Sanspo (hat tip to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker).

“The market moved slowly, so I took the decision that it would be better to inform the team early that I would stay,” Kikuchi said. “I was really torn.”

Kikuchi spent the previous eight years as a member of the Carp, with whom he developed a strong defensive reputation at second base. The soon-to-be 30-year-old’s offense hasn’t quite been up to par, though, as evidenced by his .271/.315/.391 line across 4,695 plate appearances in NPB.

Unfortunately for Kikuchi, his lack of offensive prowess no doubt worked against him as he tried to find a major league deal. Moreover, it surely didn’t help Kikuchi’s cause that he was an unproven commodity in a free-agent class of second basemen that’s loaded with familiar names. Starlin Castro, Brian Dozier, Ben Zobrist, Neil Walker, Jason Kipnis, Brock Holt, Scooter Gennett, Asdrubal Cabrera and Wilmer Flores are just some of the veteran second basemen who are still without contracts as the new year nears.

Ryosuke Kikuchi, Shun Yamaguchi Formally Posted

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Major League Baseball has announced that infielder Ryosuke Kikuchi (Hiroshima Carp) and right-handed pitcher Shun Yamaguchi (Yomiuri Giants) are each formally available through the posting process. Their posting periods opened this morning at 8am EST and will continue through 5pm EST on January 2nd.

Neither of these players is a surprise entrant to the marketplace at this point. In both cases, their respective Japanese teams had already assented to the players’ desires to explore a move to the majors. But today’s news does set the timeline for a deal to be struck.

It’s tough to say at this point how the market will develop for these two long-time Nippon Professional Baseball standouts. Countrymen Shogo Akiyama and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, both of whom are also attempting an MLB transition, are generally better-known players on this side of the Pacific. At least, it’s easier to think about precisely how those stars — a center fielder and lefty-swinging slugger — might fit into specific roster situations.

Kikuchi, 29, is a glove-first second baseman. He’s a contact and speed-oriented offensive player who doesn’t stand out in the NPB for his hitting ability. Over his career, Kikuchi carries an uninspiring .271/.315/.391 batting line at Japan’s highest level of play. While he’s regarded as a truly exceptional defender, there are quite a few second basemen available at the moment and it’s not a position at which teams have prioritized glovework of late. Interest in Kikuchi may depend upon whether MLB teams believe he’s capable of lining up at shortstop.

As for Yamaguchi, 32, it’s possible to imagine just about any team in the majors having interest. He has served alternatively as a late-inning reliever and quality starter. There have been some peaks and valleys over the years, but Yamaguchi was in good form last season, when he spun 170 innings of 2.91 ERA ball with 10.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. Whether or not there’s serious interest in Yamaguchi as a true starter remains to be seen, but there’s little doubt he’d at least be an intriguing candidate to function in a “bulk” role or as a more traditional reliever.

Under the current posting system, a Major League team that signs one of these players would owe his former team 20 percent of the first $25MM guaranteed, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM, plus 15 percent of any dollars spent north of $50MM. That release fee is paid in addition to the guarantee itself. Contract options and performance incentives, once unlocked or triggered, are subject to a supplemental 15 percent release fee. For minor league deals, MLB clubs pay out 25 percent of the player’s signing bonus, and the player’s salary upon being added to the 25-man roster is subject to a supplemental posting fee.

MLBTR Poll: Predicting Largest Guarantee Among Potential NPB Imports

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In addition to the dozens of veteran free agents still looking for new homes this offseason, there are currently three decorated players from the Nippon Professional Baseball ranks who are currently available to stateside clubs via the MLB posting system. First baseman Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, pitcher Shun Yamaguchi, and second baseman Ryosuke Kikuchi have already been posted this winter; a fourth player, outfielder Shogo Akiyama, is an international free agent. While none of these players promise, like countrymen Shohei Ohtani or Yu Darvish before them, to be franchise building blocks, each offers unique value to potential American suitors.

Looking for a lefty bat with pop? Tsutsugo is your man. Since 2014, the 6’0 slugger has blasted an average of 30.83 home runs per season while playing for the Yokohama BayStars, peaking with totals of 44 and 38 round-trippers in 2016 and 2018, respectively. The now-28-year-old couples that raw power with the patient approach modern clubs covet, recording a 15.1 percent walk rate over the last four seasons, while also doing a generally acceptable job of limiting strikeouts.

As for his defense? Well, Jason Coskrey of Baseball America recently said he’s “not a terrible fielder by any means, but he’s not a great one either”. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for a player who has shuttled between first, third, and left field in a ten-year Nipponese career. Clubs may be wary of committing multiple years, a hefty guarantee, and a posting fee (more on that in a moment) for a player who may end up suited for DH duties.

How about teams in search of a veteran starting pitcher to slot into their rotation’s back end? 32-year-old righty Shun Yamaguchi throws a fastball that sits around 90 mph, with a forkball representing his primary breaking pitch. That surely doesn’t sound like the most glamorous mix of attributes, but what Yamaguchi can offer is a wealth of experience and a good deal of forward momentum. Despite having pitched over 1000 innings stretching between the bullpen and the rotation in an NPB career dating back to 2006, Yamaguchi may have found another gear in 2019.

In addition to posting a 2.91 ERA over 26 starts, his 10.0 K/9 and 3.13 K/BB ratios last season marked personal bests as a starter. This offseason has already been slightly unpredictable when it comes to starting pitching, with Jake Odorizzi foregoing the open market and an inconsistent Kyle Gibson garnering a three-year, $30MM deal from the Rangers. For teams leery of even approaching the market’s top trifecta of starting arms, Yamaguchi, though likely not a world-beater, could represent an appealing value play.

Then there’s the slick-fielding Ryosuke Kikuchi. For teams in need of second base help and defensive improvement in the infield–and there are a few teams who fit within that category–Kikuchi may be a perfect match. The 29-year-old has won every Golden Glove at the keystone in the NPB’s Central League since 2013. While his defensive excellence seems to be universally upheld, there are some persistent questions as to how the bat will travel. Since debuting with the Hiroshima Carp in 2012, the righty swinger has logged a cumulative .271/.315/.391 line across a rather healthy sample of 4695 plate appearances.

Kikuchi’s .261/.313/.406 slash from last year would look acceptable in the majors from a defensively adept second baseman, but such production in the offensively friendly Japanese ranks may give some MLB front offices reason to pause; those that remember the trials of Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Munenori Kawasaki, two other former Golden Glove NPB infielders who proved unable to adapt to MLB pitching, may simply stay away altogether.

Big league teams interested in any of these players will have to pay their parent clubs posting fees proportional to the size of the player’s contract: 20 percent of the first $25MM guaranteed; 17.5 percent of the next $25MM, plus 15 percent of every dollar over $50MM. That release fee is separate from the guarantee itself (for instance, a $25MM guarantee for one of these players would result in an additional $5MM posting fee, bringing the MLB club’s total expense to $30MM).

Performance incentives and contract options will trigger a supplemental 15 percent release fee once unlocked. For a minor league deal, an MLB club will be required to give a parent club 25 percent of the player’s signing bonus, and the player’s MLB salary will be subject to a supplemental posting fee if he is added to the club’s 25-man roster.

Shogo Akiyama probably represents the most well-rounded player expected to make the leap this offseason, and he was the only expected NPB import from this offseason to land within our Top 50 MLB Free Agent list. Considered a true center fielder and leadoff man by most, Akiyama set the NPB single-season record for hits (216) in the 2015 season. He’s won six Golden Gloves in his home country, hit 69 home runs over his last three seasons with the Seibu Lions, and holds a 10.8 percent walk rate since 2016. Two problems: Akiyama will be 32 next April, a rather advanced age for an up-the-middle player, and he suffered a broken bone in his foot during an exhibition on Oct 31 and will need to show he is healthy in order to sign with an MLB team.

There’s certainly a chance some of these players may not come stateside this offseason, but each seems to represent a coveted potential asset in their own right. This year’s free agent market is generally slim pickings when it comes to center fielders, so Akiyama’s availability, in particular, is probably a welcome development for a number of clubs; better yet, he is free to sign a new deal with any club without being subject to the posting system and its concomitant fees.

Still, it’s fair to wonder if he can truly be considered the most viable play here.  Tsutsugo offers immense immense power and relative youth, while there seems to be a fair number of clubs circling starting pitching options like Yamaguchi this offseason.

Which one do you believe is likely to receive the healthiest contract guarantee this winter? (Poll link for app users)


Quick Hits: 40-Man Rosters, Cubs, Japanese FAs

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As we approach the non-tender deadline and the Rule 5 draft, many of the 40-man roster changes may seem inconsequential from a league perspective. But for those players involved, a spot on a 40-man roster can be life-changing. As noted by Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper, a minor league player’s pay will jump from $2000 a month to at least $46,000 for the year once added to the 40-man. That’s a significant pay bump, but their potential for future earnings also gets a jolt as they receive an invite to spring camp and a longer look from major league coaches and executives. Even one day on the ML roster during the season will earn a player more in a week than he’d likely ever made in a month of minor league ball. Given the roster churn that happens over the course of a season and the high rate of injuries, a spot on the 40-man roster gives a player a pretty decent chance of making an appearance in the show. Feel free to take a moment this morning to reflect on baseball’s greater economic landscape, then follow up with a couple quick hits from around the league.

  • The Cubs are in the market for pitching, but probably not the top names on the free agent market, per The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney. The Cubs haven’t been able to put together a pitching staff like the one that took them to a World Series title in 2016, and they no longer have the financial leeway to make a big splash like they did with the signing of Jon Lester. Only Kyle Hendricks remains close to the guy he was in 2016 when Hendricks, Lester, and Jake Arrieta each put together seasons worthy of Cy Young consideration en route to the curse-breaking championship. The Cubs of today will have to hit on below-the-radar type acquisitions, as they did in acquiring Arrieta and Hendricks in the first place. Willson Contreras could fetch a noteworthy piece, but that’s a theoretical valuation that requires a trading partner willing to move the right young arm.
  • While ardent fans are familiar with most of the names in the free agent pool, there are a few newcomers from Japanese professional baseball who remain relatively unknown commodities to American followers. Thankfully, Jason Coskrey of Baseball America provides scouting reports on a host of Japanese ballplayers who could find themselves on MLB rosters in the not-too-distant future. It’s a list that includes three players who have already been posted—Ryosuke Kikuchi, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, and Shun Yamaguchi—and Shogo Akiyama, an international free agent, all of whom are eligible to negotiate with big league clubs. Coskrey also names a number of players who could be next in line to make it stateside via the posting system or international free agency, including the famed Tetsuto Yamada. For those readers who are interested in familiarizing themselves with the newest influx of international talent to the MLB landscape, Coskrey’s piece is worth a look.

Blue Jays Notes: Giles, Japanese FAs, Gurriel, Hernandez

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While Blue Jays reliever Ken Giles looks like an obvious offseason trade candidate, general manager Ross Atkins indicated Tuesday it’s not a sure thing the team will deal him. “We’ve been really focused on acquiring players. We really haven’t engaged on trading players away much at all,” Atkins said in regards to Giles (per Jon Morosi of MLB.com). The flamethrowing Giles may have been out of Toronto by now had he been healthy at the July 31 deadline, but elbow issues helped prevent a trade from coming together. The 29-year-old was utterly brilliant in 2019, though, as he recorded a 1.87 ERA/2.27 FIP with 14.09 K/9, 2.89 BB/9 and 23 saves on 24 tries over 53 innings. Giles is now going into his final season of arbitration, in which he’s projected to make an affordable $8.4MM.

Here’s more on Toronto, all of which comes courtesy of Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter links: 1, 2, 3, 4)

  • The Blue Jays have interest in Japanese free agents (or soon-to-be free agents) Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Shogo Akiyama and Ryosuke Kikuchi, Atkins revealed. Tsutsugo’s a 27-year-old corner outfielder who has smacked 205 home runs in exactly 4,000 plate appearances in Nippon Professional Baseball. The Yokohama DeNA BayStars intend to post him by Dec. 5. Akiyama will try to parlay a strong nine-year run with the Seibu Lions of NPB into a major league contract. The 31-year-old center fielder, who won’t be subjected to the posting system, may have the highest upside of the three when it comes to earning power, as MLBTR projects he’ll rake in a two-year, $6MM guarantee this offseason. Kikuchi, a member of NPB’s Hiroshima Carp, will be posted after eight seasons with the club. The 29-year-old second baseman has not been an offensive standout in Japan, but he has thrived defensively.
  • Toronto’s at least considering using outfielders Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez in the infield next season, per Atkins. Gurriel began his career as a middle infielder, but he struggled enough there that the team shifted him to left field in 2019. That experiment paid off, though it’s reportedly possible Gurriel could be an offseason trade chip for the club. As for Hernandez, although the .230/.306/.472 line he put up in 464 plate appearances this year doesn’t look great, he did go on a second-half tear and finish with 26 home runs. But Hernandez had difficulty in center field, where he accounted for minus-7 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-7.7 Ultimate Zone Rating. Going forward, he might see time at first and/or second, Atkins suggested. Toronto looks to be in fine shape at the keystone, where Cavan Biggio enjoyed a terrific rookie season, though first is a question mark. Justin Smoak’s a free agent, and Rowdy Tellez didn’t have an especially successful year.

Hiroshima Carp To Post Infielder Ryosuke Kikuchi

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The Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced this week their intention to allow second baseman Ryosuke Kikuchi to pursue an opportunity in Major League Baseball via the posting system, the Japan Times reports.

The 29-year-old Kikuchi doesn’t carry eye-popping offensive totals throughout his career. He’s a lifetime .271/.315/.391 hitter, including .261/.313/.406 in 619 plate appearances in 2019. He walked at a 6.6 percent clip this past season and struck out in 16.4 percent of his plate appearances, which is roughly in line with the solid contact numbers he’s posted throughout his career.

Where Kikuchi shines, however, is with the glove. He’s regarded as one of Japan’s best defensive players and has won a Golden Glove honor in each of the past seven years. There’s no shortage of highlights available on YouTube, and fans of the World Baseball Classic may recall some standout plays from the 2017 tournament (as well as an opposite-field, game-tying home run against Team USA’s Nate Jones).

Late in September, Will Hoefer of Sports Info Solutions profiled Kikuchi while looking at some NPB players who might try to make the jump to MLB this winter, noting that Kikuchi led all NPB second baseman with 20 Defensive Runs Saved in 2018-19. Kikuchi is only listed at 5’7″ and 152 pounds, but Simon notes that he’s a plus runner, which helps him take advantage of the aforementioned contact skills.

Whether Kikuchi’s defensive prowess will garner the attention of big league teams remains largely an unknown at this point. The offseason market for second basemen already has plenty of serviceable options in free agency, as Howie Kendrick, Brian Dozier, Starlin Castro, Jonathan Schoop, Ben Zobrist, Jason Kipnis, Eric Sogard, Brock Holt and Wilmer Flores are among the many veterans available. The trade market, too, figures to have a few options, including Jonathan Villar.

Under the current iteration of the posting system, the Carp can post Kikuchi anytime between Nov. 1 and Dec. 5. The old blind bidding and set release fee systems are no longer in place, having given way to a new system that entitles a player’s former club to a release fee that is determined based on the size of the contract he signs in Major League Baseball. That posting fee is equal to 20 percent of a contract’s first $25MM, plus an additional 17.5 percent of any guaranteed money from $25-50MM and finally another 15 percent for any dollars over $50MM. With regard to minor league contracts, the posted player’s former club would receive a release fee equal to 25 percent of the signing bonus (plus a supplemental release fee if the player is added to the active roster and receives a Major League salary).

The Carp have yet to announce the specific date on which Kikuchi will be posted. He’s the second NPB player known to be up for posting this winter, joining Yokohama DeNa BayStars slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo. Seibu Lions center fielder Shogo Akiyama, meanwhile, is seeking a Major League opportunity as well but is not subject to the posting system, as he has more than nine years of service time in NPB. He’s a pure free agent who can sign with any team.

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